Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Trading Ryan Helsley

Starting point is 00:00:00 If the St. Louis Cardinals decide to move closer, Ryan Housley, for financial reasons, what could some of those trade packages look like? Let's go over a few today on Locked-on Cardinals. You are Locked-on Cardinals, your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals fans. I'm J.D. Hafford and I'm an national radio sports anchor, born and raised in a Lou with a Lifetime Cardinals fan, and I'm your host for Lockdown Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, covering your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:36 You can follow me on Twitter, X, the JD Sports Radio, and the podcast at L0 underscore Cardinals. I do want to make those of you who make Locktown Cardinals your first list. And every day, we are free and available wherever you get your podcast. You can find us on YouTube.

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Starting point is 00:01:01 Yeah. the right stay can make you a fan of any city, even your baseball rivals. Book today on booking.com, the official accommodation partner of Major League Baseball. Get the booking.com app today. So quickly, apologies for not being able to put something out on Monday, a little bit under the weather, trying to get over it. If you can tell, I'm a little stuffed up and stuff today. So apologies for that.

Starting point is 00:01:27 But I want to talk about some stuff today. I'm feeling well enough to talk a little. bit about Ryan Housley. You know, trimming payroll is something that the Cardinals they intend to do. And there's still no definitive updates on how low things are going to go, although reports. And this is something that I found very eye-opening and thought was like, okay, well, maybe things are quite as bad as we're making it out to be, was John Moseilocks saying, I'm not anticipating any big contracts going yet. We need to get a little guidance on what our revenues are going. going to look like. When you think about the trading market in general, that starts as we

Starting point is 00:02:07 interposed World Series. There are some players that I think still have some value here from a leadership standpoint and also from a competitive standpoint. So it might not be, and they've never used the words fire sale or anything like that. And I don't expect it to be such. We just expected, you know, maybe a couple of guys that you're, you've been banking on the last couple of years to be some of those names that get moved out just because they make a decent amount of money. We've mentioned the elimination of contracts for Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Andrew Kittred, Ekeena Middleton, as a good starting point. You know, you don't have to trade any of those guys. You just don't do anything. You just let them go. There's also the contracts of

Starting point is 00:02:48 Miles Michaelis and Stephen Matt's that could be addressed as well. Some overpaid pitchers right there that if you can move them off the books, at least some of their money, then it's something you probably look into. One person who is up for a raise, though, is close to Ryan Halsley. And he's up for a significant raise, right? Made $3.8 million this past season is certainly going to command more in his final arbitration year before hitting free agency after 2025. There was a report from Sports Illustrated that SpotRack has some projected to receive a six-year deal worth $81.6 million, which is $13.6 million annually. And if that proves to be a little rich for the Cardinals, then trading him is an obvious option.

Starting point is 00:03:34 Now, there are a lot of reasons to want to keep Ryan Helsley, all right? I mean, it's not like we dislike Ryan Helsley. So we're going to go through the good and the bad, why we want to keep him, why we wouldn't. All right? Here are some reasons why you want to keep Ryan Helzley. First off, we love the guy, all right? Seems to be a great clubhouse guy. People enjoy being around him.

Starting point is 00:03:56 He's got a cool entrance, which is always neat at Bush Stadium. Homegrown talent as well, something that the organization can be proud of when there's been so much, you know, bad vibes about homegrown talent with the Cardinals. And he's one of the good stories, right? Number two, just set a record for saves in a season for the Cardinals with 49, which also led all of Major League Baseball. I mean, he's awesome. Arguably the best closer in the game, along with Emmanuel Class A with Cleveland, who just got ripped in the playoffs. Something that just like, what? Detroit, Kerry Carpenter got him.

Starting point is 00:04:30 And certainly, Ryan Helsley, if he's not one of the top two, he's certainly in the discussion of the top five closures in baseball, along with guys like Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz and so forth. Number three, had the most dominating year of his career so far and was almost unhittable at the end in September and October. Had his other month of July was another month where it was like nobody could touch him. kind of nice to have that. And number four, dependable lights out closers,

Starting point is 00:05:01 they just don't grow on trees, you know? It's not like everybody's just got one in their bullpen and it's no big deal. You know, go ask the Yankees fans how they feel about Clay Holmes this past season, you know, it's not the easiest thing in the world to go find a guy that's as dependable and as good as Ryan Helsley has been for the St. Louis Cardinals, specifically this past season. Now, some reasons to trade him. include the fact. And I know we're going to get a little nitpicky here, but, you know, this is just what they're going to be looking at. Some reasons why to keep him, why to get rid of

Starting point is 00:05:33 them. Number one reason why they get rid of them, just turn 30. And if a six-year deal is what he's worth and what he should get, like Spotrack says, that might be a bit long for a guy who's 30 years old. That means you're going to be paying him until he's 36. Is that something you want to do with a closer. Number two, the injury concerns are very real. Despite him getting through the year unscathed here in 2024, the Cardinals were smart. They limited him to one inning almost all year. And it worked. It absolutely worked. They said, you get the ball in the ninth inning. This is your role. But in the past, he has had forearm, elbow, shoulder, hand, and finger injuries over his career. and injuries don't normally become less frequent as a player gets older.

Starting point is 00:06:25 They usually start to rev up a little bit. So something else to think about. Number three, if 13.6 million is what he's worth. Are you willing to pay that for a guy who only pitches when you're tied or winning? You know, you're going to be doing this, what they're calling the reset. Is that something you want to put that much money towards during this reset that the Cardinals are embarking on? where you're not really expecting to win, you know, 95 games a season. You know what I mean?

Starting point is 00:06:56 Like where you think you might be sitting around the 500 bar for maybe a year or two, is an elite close or something that you should be paying that much money towards or would that money be better used in other spots of your roster? And number four, he is at the height of his worth right now. at this very moment, Ryan Helsley is worth more than he has ever been in a major league uniform. So if you're trading him, he's going to get you the most right now, then he probably will if you wait. Because you take the risk next year. If you hang on to him and say, okay, well, let's see what he's worth at the deadline, this upcoming year and see what people will pay.

Starting point is 00:07:39 Will somebody overpay? Well, what if he gets hurt next year? What if he doesn't have his dominating of a season? What if things go a little south? what if he regresses a little bit. These are all things you got to think about. So I don't think really there's a wrong answer here. I see both sides of the argument.

Starting point is 00:07:56 There's something comforting about knowing that in the ninth inning, that the ninth is taking care of, all right? There's nothing you got to worry about 90% of the time. Like he's going to get the job done. And it's nice because, you know, that makes life easy for your manager and your team that essentially you're playing an eight inning game, nights against people. But if you feel you have guys in the organization that are closer material,

Starting point is 00:08:25 then perhaps moving on from Helsley isn't as difficult as we think. Who are those guys? I'll be honest with you. I'm not totally sure. There's not somebody that I've seen in the minors where I'm like, dude, closer right there. I mean, there's been some guys who have had some successful seasons in the minors with some saves. But I mean, are we putting them anywhere close to what Ryan Housley has been for the Cardinals, of course not. Of course not. Ryan Elsley is an elite closer in Major League Baseball. And he's worth a decent chuck of change right now. But what could the Cardinals get in return?

Starting point is 00:08:58 That's what people want to know. That's what people really want to know. If we decide, yes, we should trade Ryan Housley, what's going to come back to the Cardinals that's going to make it worthwhile? A recent article from Michael Carpenter at Redbird Ranch.com did some digging, came up with a few packages. is I want to walk you through and talk about those coming up next on Locked on Cardinals. For most of us that like collecting cards, the idea of spending two grand or more on a Luca Donchich or an L.A. Dela Cruz or Patrick Mahom's rookie card, it just isn't in the cards, right? You know, I love collecting, but that's some serious money to drop on a card.

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Starting point is 00:11:08 Thank you for making Locked on Cardinals your first listen every day. You can leave your comments on YouTube as well as on Twitter X anytime you want. Feedback always welcome and encourage we are going to be doing a fan feedback show here in the very near future going through some of the things that you have thoughts on when it comes to trading players away. Who should we keep? Who should we not? What the rotation is going to look like?

Starting point is 00:11:29 Specifically, Ryan Housley, who we're talking about today. Once again, this is all just speculation. Nobody has a definitive answer on what someone would offer for Ryan Housley yet. But he's certainly a trade chip that the Cardinals will have in their back pocket and look into cashing in on if they need to. And Michael Carpenter at Redbirdrance.com posted four different packages that could entice the team to move them, said he went through notable trades for Adolus Chapman, a rollus Chapman that, like the trade that went to the Cubs a few years ago.

Starting point is 00:11:59 The Josh Hader trade, Tanner Scott this year, going to the Padres to get an idea of what somebody of Ryan Helsley's worth would be out there on the market. So the write-up, I got it posted in the description for you guys, for those who want to read the whole thing, because I'm not going to go into every single detail that Michael goes into, so I encourage you to read it for yourself. But we can browse through these real quick. I mentioned Clay Holmes earlier, 13 blown saves for the New York Yankees this year. You know they wish they had something better in the back of their bullpen. So it makes sense to just go ahead and start with them. So trade number one here for Ryan Helsley, the Yankees would offer up right-handed pitcher

Starting point is 00:12:41 Bryce Cunningham, left-handed pitcher Griffin-Haring, and outfielder Brandon Maya for Cardinals, right-handed pitcher Ryan Housley. Now Michael has the Yankees sitting there number 9, 13 and 27th ranked prospects in exchange for Housley. Bryce Cunningham was drafted in the second round of the 2024 draft. Fastball reaches 97, swing and miss change up, a sweeping slider that is effective. He shows potential to be a number two or three starter and could be a fast riser through the minor league system like Quinn Matthews has been for the Cardinals. Brando Maya, 19-year-old outfielder, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2023. Quick swing from the right side, elite speed. 35 games in rookie ball last season hit 281, 19 stolen bases, and then left-handed pitcher

Starting point is 00:13:27 Griffin-herring drafted in the sixth round of the 2024 draft out of LSU was one of the most valuable pieces out of their bullpen for the Tigers. Devastating sweeper in his arsenal, but his fastball lacks velocity, topping out at 94 miles per hour. So my initial thoughts on this particular trade. I'd want someone a little closer to big league ready than a 19 year old outfielder who's only known for his speed. That doesn't really sound like something I'm interested. I got a guy by the name of Victor Scott. I got a Michael Ciani who are ready to rock and roll in those roles already. But the other two guys obviously make a little sense. You know, the pitching, you can never have enough pitching. We've learned that the hard way,

Starting point is 00:14:06 have we not? Next up, trade wise from the Boston Red Sox, right-handed pitcher Luis Perales, right-handed pitcher Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz and third-baseman, first-baseman, Blaze Jordan, in exchange for Halsley. Michael says, I have the Red Sox sending their number 9, 17, and 26. The ranked prospects in this deal. The first piece would be Luis Perales, the 21-year-old right-handers coming off Tommy John surgery, and will likely miss most of the 2025 season. Before his injury, he was overpowering hitters with his mid-90s fastball that topped out at 99 miles per hour and a mid-80s slider. while he has lacked consistency with his secondary pitches and his change up left much to be desired.

Starting point is 00:14:48 He has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy or it could be the future replacement for Helsley himself at the back end of the Cardle's bullpen. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, another potential mid-rotation starter. The cards could target. Fastball sitting at 94-96 that tops out at 98. 21-year-old possesses four pitches, including a slider curve and newly developed splitter. six foot three gets great extension on his pitches if he can hone in his control should be a solid piece for the major league rotation in the future will likely start next season at double a but could rise quickly if he shows improvement in his mechanics third and final piece of the deal corner infielder blaze jordan great name by the way raw power going back to his high school days where he won the high school home run derby at the 2019 all-star game as you have to fully tap into the power at the professional level 18 home runs in 2020 but only seven this past season after missing a significant chunk of games due to an injury. While he is likely to end up at first base due to his lack of range at third, he's still 21 years old and we'll have time to unlock his power as he moves through the miners.

Starting point is 00:15:54 Now talking about that deal, two injured guys and a double A pitcher, who we think is going to be a double A pitcher. Yeah, good luck selling that to the fan base. who already believes you suck at making trades already. And you just, the fan base believes and it's hard to disagree with it. You got hosed in the Tyler O'Neill deal where you've only got one guy left for it from the deal. Nick Robertson's with another organization now.

Starting point is 00:16:26 And, you know, your other guy, Santos is at AAA, did not have a great year. So, yeah, I don't know if that one's going to fly so well with the fan base. So I'm not sure. I'm not sure I'm making a deal with the Red Sox for a little bit. I might take a step back from trading anything with Boston, despite High Bloom, knowing their organization very, very well, I might try to go elsewhere. I might try to go elsewhere. Although they got a very good prospect pool, you know, their minor leagues, their organization, their prospect, they're considered one of the tops in baseball.

Starting point is 00:17:06 So maybe some of me, maybe a different. package than what we're seeing there because there's not a whole lot there where I'm like, woo, sounds good. All right, we're going to go over the final two offers from two teams who were currently in the MLB playoffs. We'll get to that next year on Locked on Cardinals. This episode of Lockton Cardinals is brought to you by booking.com, booking dot, yeah, explore those U.S. cities.

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Starting point is 00:20:00 You have the fall classics going on with Sully, who's got you covered each and every day. You can find the link to Locked on MLB in the description so you don't need to search part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And it's not like the playoffs have not been exciting so far. And I know we wish our Cardinals were in it, but they are not.

Starting point is 00:20:17 They are not. So we're talking about how we're going to fix this thing and get things going in the right direction and get prepared for 2025. I don't know if you're rooting for the Royals in the playoffs right now. I've got family that live there. Hello, Chris, Amber, Rylan, Henley, Drake, what's up? But the Royals, in my opinion,

Starting point is 00:20:37 are kind of like our brothers from another mother, all right? They're just across the state in Kansas City, nice little four-hour drive from St. Louis. And they got it, Coffman Stadium is a great place to visit if you've never gone there before. So in these playoffs, they're one of the teams that I am pulling for against the big bad Yankees. So it was nice to see them even things up last night. But that's the next team on this Helsley trade list that Michael Carpenter goes with.

Starting point is 00:21:03 Here's the deal that he has for Helsley with the Royals. Left-handed pitcher David Shields, third baseman shortstop, Austin Charles, and a right-handed pitcher, L.P. Langavan, starting the hall for the Royals would be an 18-year-old and David Shields drafted in the second round of the 2024 MLB draft. He has a solid fastball that misses bats. Should get better as he matures than above average slider and a good feel for his change-up. He has all the tools to be a top of the rotation arm and will be given all the time he needs to fulfill that potential. Second piece of the trade, third baseman shortstop, Austin, Charles, 6 foot 5. 20 years old might be the best athlete in the royal system.

Starting point is 00:21:45 Having a plus arm and untapped power at the play, Charles hit 257-353-386 with 29 extra base hits and 36 stolen bases at 117 games at Single A. Versatile Defender was moved to third base due to the Royal's depth at shortstop, but he could also transition to the outfield if needed. Finally, LP, and I think it's Langavan, is how he pronounces it. Fourth round pick in the 2024 draft, finished third in NCAA D1 in strikeout rate at 15. point two per nine innings. He possesses a plus fastball that hitters have trouble barreling thanks to his low arm slot. He's also got a solid slider and change up that he uses to keep hitters off balance at the plate. Not a bad package right there.

Starting point is 00:22:30 Again, I wish there was somebody that would be closer to Major League Ready because all of these guys are a couple of years away. But hard to argue with what these guys have done in their career. So that's an interesting one. That's for sure. His final trade idea comes from the Philadelphia Phillies. He's got outfielder Griffin Burkholder, third baseman Carson D. Martini and left-handed pitcher Mavis Graves. Michael says the 19-year-old outfielder Griffin-Birkholder is a second round pick in the 2024 draft. Speed, defensive ability to be a center fielder in the major leagues with the ability to drive the ball. The right-handed bat is still tapping into his power, which could end up. seeing him be a 20 plus home run hitter to go with his elite speed.

Starting point is 00:23:16 Third base McCars and DeMartini, another 20-24 pick. 21-year-old has extra base hit power all over the field and has all the makings of a 20-to-25 home-run hitter. Shortstop and high school transition to third base at Virginia Tech, where he still has room to improve as a defender. But his main tool remains his power ability at the plate. Says D. Martini could end up being a pure DH at the major league level, but if he continues to hit, that shouldn't be a problem. And then he's got a left-hand pitcher Mavis Graves.

Starting point is 00:23:43 Final piece of the trade, 20 years old, has already had two minor league seasons under his belt after a disaster is showing at rookie ball in 2023. He followed that up with a much better season this year at Singalei, posted a 7-6 record with a 3.64 ERA, 1.35 whip, 117 strikeouts and just 84 in each pitch. 6 foot 6, 5-pitch arsenal, which includes a 4 and 2-seem fastball, curveball change up, his best pitch, of the bunch is a hard cutter that has very high spin rate. So those are the deals. The theme in these is that you're getting what appears to be one of the top 10, not a top five, but one of the top 10 prospects in each organization. Then there's a guy that's kind of in the teens and then somebody in the mid to late 20s

Starting point is 00:24:34 of their top 30 prospects on MLB pipeline. I would assume that any of those would be a decent hall for Ryan Helsley. Again, I would love to see some kind of impact that would help out for the Major League roster right away outside of just a bunch of 19, 20 and 21 year olds where, and I know it's a reset, but this is not a rebuild where we're trying to figure out what things are going to be in five years. We're trying to figure out what it's going to be in the next two, is at least in my eyes, is the way things are going. So I would hope to get somebody that might have some impact on the major league roster this year or maybe next year at the latest. Obviously getting good prospects, second round picks and stuff like that. In exchange for Ryan Ellsley, I'm not saying there's something wrong with that. But personally, I would hope to get somebody that could also help out immediately with what the Cardinals are trying to do now.

Starting point is 00:25:33 My personal favorite deal, I think out of these four would have the Royals one entices me. Then you got the Phillies, then the Yankees, and then the Red Sox. I don't like injured dudes. I'm not trying to go after some people who are hurt and might be out with Tommy. I'm not trying to do that. I would hate to move Hellsley, first and foremost, too, another one of these big market squats. I just, I don't want to give them more ammunition, you know. So if you can send them to the Royals,

Starting point is 00:26:02 cool. You know, that I would feel better about that. And if the Royals do well in these playoffs, you know, if they come up with this upset against the Yankees in the series, maybe they decide that, hey, we're in this win now window with Salvador Perez, not getting any younger. We should maybe pull the trigger on getting that, you know, lock down closer at the back end of the bullpen. Maybe that's something that we absolutely need. Let's go all in and try to get this done.

Starting point is 00:26:35 And if Cardinals could get what Michael brings up there, which is their seventh, 14th, and 24th bring prospects, I do love the fact that that one guy is just a massive athlete, which, you know, you figured out some of these teams like the Padres right now. What did they do? They went out and got a bunch of short stops. Remember, they got a bunch of short stops. And they're like, why are they loading up on that? Well, because they're usually the best athletes on your team.

Starting point is 00:26:58 And you can put them anywhere. They can learn different positions. and it's worked out nicely for them. Maybe that's something the Cardinals look into because Mason, when is it going anywhere at shortstop? But if you find athletes like, you know, how Fernando Tatis Jr. is turned into a right field or even though he was a shortstop.

Starting point is 00:27:14 If you can, I'm not saying that kids, the next Fernando Tatis Jr. But when you've got athletes like that, they become the word is versatile, right? And you can move them around the diamond. And they can help you out in a number of different ways. We know how the Cardinals love to have guys like Tommy Edmund was and how Bernardinovon is where they can play multiple positions,

Starting point is 00:27:35 which is, you know, it's nice to have that kind of person on your, on your roster. So it'd be tough to not pull the trigger for that Royals deal to me. Both of those pitchers sound like they got a lot of upside, even though none of them are projected to reach the major leagues until earliest 2026. That would be the one that personally I would like the most. But I would also check in with a team like the Orioles who had to. their issues. They went out and got Craig Kimbrel this past year, and that didn't work. So they're still looking for a closer, and they might be getting desperate because they keep having issues in the

Starting point is 00:28:09 playoffs, right? And they're not getting to where they feel like they should be. And maybe they're like, well, we're kind of one piece away. Maybe they'll throw a bag at you for, for, for Brian Helsley and can get you not only some prospects, but also some guys maybe that are ready to make an impact at the major league level. So I would check in with them as well. So what do you? What are your thoughts on these deals? How would you rank them? Which one is your favorite? Tell me why. And be sure to click the link to visit Michael's write-up about this at Redbirdrants.com and show our friends some love there. Great website. A lot of fun to go through and hear people's opinions and stuff. So they break down quite nicely. And they're really good about building trades and

Starting point is 00:28:50 stuff like that, like coming up with ideas. And then, you know, you get to play GM and go, do I like that? Do I dislike it? It's a cool website. So check it out for yourself. Thank you for making lots on Cardinals your first listen every day if you haven't already. Give us a follow on Twitter X at L0 underscore Cardinals. Of course, the JD Sports Radio. Like, subscribe on YouTube, help our channel and love for the Cardinals grow. Good luck to the Blues today. All right, San Luis, NHL hockey season, at least the North America side of it has begun.

Starting point is 00:29:21 I know there were some games in Prague, but the Blues get started early game in the afternoon. So root for you guys. Hope it's good. Go check out Lockdown Blubley. Blues, which is obviously our girl over there doing her thing, we should support your Cardinals and support your St. Louis Blues. St. Louis teams, you know, we root for each other. So go check her out if you get a chance. You guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason. And we will see you next time on Lockedown Cardinals.

Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Trading Ryan Helsley

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