Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Wait... So The Cardinals Don't "Have" To Cut Payroll?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Lots of questions heading into the off season for the St. Louis Cardinals, payroll, Ali Marmal, heading coaches, Heinblum, trades, and a whole lot more. Today we've got Jeff Jones joining us to help answer some of those questions on today's episode of Locked on Cardinals. You are Locked on Cardinals, your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, there, Cardinals fans. I'm Jady Hafford and I'm a national radio sports anchor, born and raised in the Lou and a lifetime Cardinals fan,

Starting point is 00:00:34 and I'm your host for Locktown Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, covering your team every day. Follow me on Twitter, Axe at JD Sports Radio and the podcast at L0 underscore Cardinals. We want to thank those of you who make Locktown Cardinals your first list in every day, free and available, wherever you get your podcast. You can also find us on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:00:50 This is a show serving Cardinal Nation and giving the best fans in baseball, all of the info about the birds on the bat. Today's episode is brought to you by Fandul. You can start this season with a big return on Fandul, place your first $5 bet and you'll get started with $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Visit fandul.com to get started. So the reset for the St. Louis Cardinals is coming, which has led a lot of us to debate on what the Cardinals may or may not do,

Starting point is 00:01:17 heading into 2025. And to help guide us through what we know so far is our buddy Jeff Jones, who covers the Cardinals for the Belleville News Democrat. And you can check out his work at B&D.com. Jeff, thank you as always for hopping on here today. How's the offseason been for you thus far? You're doing okay? It's been pretty good.

Starting point is 00:01:35 You know, you have really good baseball to watch here over the last couple of weeks, so it's been a nice little soft landing into the winter for me here. Yeah, these games have been pretty darn exciting. Like, it's a shame that the Cardinals aren't a part of it. It makes you kind of, you know, yearned to have that back at Bush Stadium. But it's been an entertaining playoff so far in Major League Baseball. The 2024 season, although much better than what 2023 was for the Cardinals, still fell short of expectations, you know, of ownership, front office, coaches, team,

Starting point is 00:02:07 obviously the fan base who just kind of quit coming to games altogether. A lot of fans showed their displeasure with the coaching staff that has been in charge over the last couple of seasons that, you know, they want to point fingers at, you know, anybody and everybody right now. It's their fault. It's this person's fault. And somebody who's come under a lot of scrutiny has been the coaching staff, Ali Marmel, former hitting coach.

Starting point is 00:02:30 Coach Turner Ward, obviously, was, you know, branded the evil person on the roster. It's why nobody could hit anymore. He's not going to be retained for next year pitching coach Dusty Blake, although didn't catch as much heat as he did in 2023. No manager is perfect by any means, but even, you know, the best ones will make mistakes from time to time. And I've constantly been kind of, I don't want to say an Ali apologists by any means, but I haven't thought that Ali has been the biggest issue that's going,

Starting point is 00:03:00 on with the Cardinals. I think he had a rough go in that second year when he didn't have, you know, Albert and Yadi and Wayno. I think he learned from it. I thought he was better this season. But how how did you feel about Ali's managerial skills in 2024? Is he as bad as some people make him out to be in your opinion? No, not even close. In fact, I would say that he is by far and away easily in the top half of in game managers in Major League Baseball right now. I, I, you know, without sending down a ranking all 30, I would, I would hesitate to put him much better than that. But no, all the confidence in the world in terms of what he can do as an in-game manager. And in terms of, you know, how that got your fucking in the clubhouse, look, I think that he definitely made some mistakes in 2023 with the way some things were handled.

Starting point is 00:03:47 I think that there are parts of that that were on him and parts of that that were on the front office kind of passing down things that that created kind of unfair or uneven messaging maybe. And I think that, you know, even a year ago, most folks in the organization, and especially now as benefit of hindsight, would be willing to admit that the sort of dramatic swing of 2023 caught a lot of people off guard. And there were very few folks who were kind of at their best throughout that season. So definitely that, you know, look, that makes up a third of his managerial resume to date, right? So you weigh it the way you would weigh anything else. But I don't, I would hesitate to take a lot away from that season in terms of what a gauge. is, you know, for his ability looking forward. And then in terms of this past season, I really do struggle to find areas where anybody would, like,

Starting point is 00:04:38 I don't know what the criticism of him would be for this past season, right? I really, outside of kind of, you know, just the kind of naked we don't like this guy coming off of 23 that accompanies it, I really struggle to find places where he individually, in his performance was somehow below expectations. You know, you can say what you want about the batting order, I guess, with Goldschmidt and Aronado, but realistically, the team was not going to be any better than they were without those two guys being at least something close to what they were earlier in their careers.

Starting point is 00:05:10 You know, there was a lot of a lot of complaining about the frequency of off days for Mason win early in the season. The guy played 150 games at shortstop and did it fighting through injuries, right? Like, clearly there was a plan in place to get him. him some days off early in the season so he could play. I think at one point, he played like 50 straight games down the stretch in the summer, which, you know, again, was reported at a time, like there's a plan for this, there's a rationale for this. And nobody wanted to hear because Brandon Crawford was O for April and, you know, and it was hard to watch, right? But it really is,

Starting point is 00:05:43 it would be difficult for me to find a lot to criticize about the way the manager performed this past season in terms of, you know, what was happening on the field and also kind of the way that he was able to shepherd the clubhouse through what was it not a tumultuous season, but I think just kind of a disappointing season for a lot of folks. And I think, you know, crucially, the fact that more performances for basically the entire year from their two most important hitters didn't seem to drag down much of anyone else, at least spurious-wise, I think that is to his credit to some extent. We know Turner Ward is not going to come back.

Starting point is 00:06:23 he's not going to be the hitting coach, whether things, because the offense was so bad, specifically the voters in scoring position, we all know the issues there, whether they're his fault or not, because I constantly am the guy that's like, well, he can't swing the bat for him. He can give you all the information in the world, but if you don't do your job, it doesn't matter. But there's been speculation, obviously, on who might take up the role of a hitting coach coming up in 2025. I would assume it's going to be someone already within the organization because that's just kind of the cardinal thing to do. But what are some names that you've been seeing that could possibly take over that role for next year? So, you know, there are definitely some internal options which stand out.

Starting point is 00:07:06 The team is retaining Brandon Allen, who is the assistant hitting coach, who was previously to the Memphis hitting coach, who has a lot of fans throughout the organization and on the big league roster. at a particular is a guy who did a lot of work with VA has for the last two years and found him to be a really effective messenger who's obviously helped him a lot. Howie Clark was the hitting coach of Memphis for the last couple of years was previously a big league hitting coach with the White Sox. You're talking about a guy who is internal and has experience and is kind of on the same page with everyone.

Starting point is 00:07:34 You know, he's a guy who would make sense in that role as well. And you kind of look at, you know, Ben Johnson has been managing in Memphis for a good little while now. again is popular with guys throughout the organization. Does he want a step up into the big leagues? A lot of times, you know, a AAA manager is a hard thing to hold onto for whatever it is, the four or five years now that that then has been managing a AAA. And so you wonder, is that the kind of position that the Cardinals would maybe look to fill in and get him to the big leagues? The other guy that released, well, so there are two other guys.

Starting point is 00:08:07 One is technically inside the organization, that being Ryan Ludwig, obviously, you know, we sort of well-documented success that he had with Victor Scott. particular, but also just sort of in his role throughout the system as a roading instructor, definitely someone who stands out, you know, if he's in the spot now where he is interested in that, there was a while there, you know, he's got a young family where he was not maybe all the way in on the possibility of taking on that kind of schedule. Maybe it's different for him now, who knows. The other guy that stands out is John Jay. John Jay, who's been the first base coach in Miami the last couple of season under Skip Schumacher. You know, if if Skip does

Starting point is 00:08:44 end up getting a job this winter, which I know seemed crazy, but when you kind of look at the openings out there, you know, if you're Skip Schumacher, do you want to go manage the White Sox? Is that what you're like, is that what you really want to do? Or do you wait for a better opening? You know, I think that kind of given the way that the playoffs have unfurled, ironically, you know, there's a possibility that the outcome of game five between the Dodgers and Padres might determine whether there's an opening in Los Angeles, right? I can, I can, I can, see a scenario where if the Dodgers don't get out of the first round, that that job could pop open maybe. And so if that's the case, then maybe Skip ends up there. But all along way around

Starting point is 00:09:24 to say that if Skip Schumacher doesn't end up as a big league manager this winter, then John Jay could have turned to the Marlins. He's got connections to Miami. There's a lot of work with you may not be interested in leaving Miami, but also has a really strong connection to Alia Marmal and the Cardinals organization, obviously, you know, Daniel DeSalzo and particular, who will be returning as the bench coach, you know, Descalso and Jay are, our partners in the sunglasses company, right? These are guys who have a relationship.

Starting point is 00:09:52 It would not shock me if John Jay was the guy who got some consideration for that position as well, if he was in a spot where he was looking to leave Miami. All right, some stuff to think about there. I think, you know, how the Cardo fans are. They kind of like having their boys come home and be a part of the team again. So I definitely could see John Jay being welcome back with open arms, if that's something that ends up happening. Now payroll is something that has obviously been a hot topic of discussion

Starting point is 00:10:20 since their season ending press conference that they held when they announced the reset. We're going to talk to Jeff about that and which veterans he thinks will or will not be back in a Cardinals next season. That's coming up next on Lockstone Cardinals. Price Fix is the best place to get real money sports action. So if you haven't visited them yet, you obviously should be. doing that with over 10 million members and billions of dollars and awarded winnings. Price Fix has made daily fantasy sports accessible to all. Now, you just pick more or less on

Starting point is 00:10:56 at least two players for a shot to win up to 100 times your cash. So you run your game all season long on Price Fix. You can now win up to 100 times your money on Price Fix with as little as for correct picks. That's all you got to get. Price Fix is the best place to get real money sports action. Join over 10 million users. There's a reason why they got that many people there. Sign up today. Price picks puts its members first. So all your withdraws, they're fast, they're safe, they're secure, which is great. And when your picks hit, you can get your money in as quick as 15 minutes. So sign up today and get $50 instantly. When you play $5, you don't even need to win, actually, to receive the $50 bonus because it's guaranteed. Price picks the best way to win real

Starting point is 00:11:36 money this football season, Thursday night football tonight, 49ers at the Seahawks. A lot of big names involved in this game tonight. Brock Purdy, Devo Samuel, George Kettle, Brandon, I, Youke, Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, Gino Smith over there on the Seattle side, which players are going to go off? Who's going to struggle? Make your picks in less than 60 seconds and turn your sports opinions into real money all season long on price picks. Download the app today. Use the code locked on MLB to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup. Download the app today.

Starting point is 00:12:09 Use the code, locked on MLB to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup. Price picks, run your game. This episode of Lockdown Cardinals also brought to you by booking.com. Booking. Yeah, explore the U.S. cities that you always secretly wanted to learn more about. They've got hotels, bed and breakfast, vacation rentals, resorts, so much more available to you at booking.com. You might just find your perfect stay, even in your baseball rival city. With booking.com's wide variety of choices across the U.S., you can go incognito to all of your baseball rival cities like Chicago, Milwaukee, some natty, Pittsburgh.

Starting point is 00:12:49 Booking.com can deliver exactly the right U.S. stay for you. They can help you book a stay that's, you know, close to your hometown's favorite team or your rival stadium. If that's where you decide to go from hotels that overlook the stadiums, the family-friendly resorts to cute bed and breakfast days and so much more, booking.com has so many choices across the U.S. The right stay can make you a fan of any U.S. city, even your baseball rivals. booking.com, booking. Yeah. Thanks for making lots on Cardinals. You're first to listen every day. You can leave comments on YouTube as well as on TwitterX

Starting point is 00:13:31 anytime you want that feedback. Always welcome and encourage. We got Jeff Jones who covers the Cardinals for the Belleville News Democrat. Joining us today, you can find him at JM Jones on Twitter X and check out his work at BND.com. Now, Jeff, you did a piece on the budget right when October rolled over. And in it, you had the press conference. conference with ownership in the front office talking about Heinbloom coming in.

Starting point is 00:13:57 And then they started talking about payroll and budgets and all that jazz. And some of that stuff can get a little confusing. I'll be honest. I'm not mathematically challenged. I'm not the smartest guy in the world when it comes to that stuff. And one of the things that you were saying in this article is how things didn't stand up to the simple map. Okay. Can you explain what you meant about that for folks like me to understand it a little bit?

Starting point is 00:14:23 better. Yeah. So the one caveat that I will put on this is that the Cardinals to the absolute minimum credit never made the claim that they will dollar for dollar replace everything. They're cutting in payroll with everything that they're, you know, everything that they're going to be adding to player developed. Right. So that that is not a claim that they made. So it's up to whoever to determine whether or not you care or you think that that that should be a dollar, dollar to replace. The only thing that I will say is that, you know, build it with the third was on a pod. podcast with Martin Kilcoyne and May and was asked about fan attendance. And he made the comments then. And the quote was, this is a machine that turns revenue into payroll, right? And if that is the

Starting point is 00:15:06 case and payroll goes way down, then it would need to be reinvested somewhere else for that to still be true. I think that that clearly is not the case. The other thing that I'll say is a big part of their revenue pie undoubtedly is their local TD. broadcast, right? You know, last year, that amounted to something in the neighborhood of 60 million bucks that they got from Diamond in order to air the games. Now, obviously, you know, last winter we heard about some of the lack of solid air, you know, that number was kind of uncertain based on the bankruptcy proceedings for Diamond. It turned out that the Cardinals got their full check. They didn't miss a dime out from what they were from Diamond. In the days,

Starting point is 00:15:51 in fact, maybe the day after the press conference, Diamond went to a bankruptcy hearing and announced that they were dropping, I think it's three or four more teams, and that they are seeking to renegotiate their contracts for next year with every other team that they carry, including the Cardinals, right? And so because of the bankruptcy proceeding, this is allowed, yada, yada, yada. MLB's claim at the time was that they were blindside on this. They were not expecting that. And so whatever revenue projections the Cardinals may have had for next year, that included any money from Diamond. or maybe not valid anymore. All of that is a long way around to saying, if you look at what revenues were for the Cardinals in 2023,

Starting point is 00:16:32 and Forbes every year puts out a story where they, you know, they list the franchise values, they list their estimated revenues and expenditures, et cetera, et cetera, right? These things are all a little bit fuzzy just because the Cardinals are privately held company. Their finances are not public. So there's really no way to verify what their revenues were, what the expenditures exactly were, et cetera, et cetera. But the revenues for

Starting point is 00:16:56 2023 were somewhere in the neighborhood of 385 million. That's gross revenue, right? So payroll gets paid out of that, you know, operating the building, minor leagues, player development, etc., etc. The other important number to keep in mind here is that Moseilock after the press availability had a, or after the press conference had a smaller availability for the local reporters and said that he anticipated that it would be an 8 to 12% increase in player development next season, right? So roughly 10%. That's the midpoint of 8 and 12. Easy enough, right? So for the Cardinals to have had 380 million in revenue to have spent, which we know what they spent on payroll was in the vicinity of 205, 210 million somewhere in there. The Cardinals have not been willing

Starting point is 00:17:45 to sort of break down, you know, what percentage is payroll, what percentage is players. development, what percentage is the stadium, just because, you know, from that you could back figure a lot of their revenues and, you know, spoiler alert, they're going to be coming for some public money here in the next couple of years for the stadium, right? So they're going to be a little more finicky about that than usual. All of that is to say that if the Cardinals were to just let their free agents walk, so we're talking about Lynn, Gibson, Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Middleton, Kickers, because they just let those guys walk by the time that they paid out their buyouts and also accounting for Sunny Gray's race as well as arbitration raises if they only let

Starting point is 00:18:27 the free agents go and replace the free agents with league minimum guys. So like the easiest way to do this, right? That shaves about 35-ish million off the payroll. 35 million shaved off the payroll has to be more than 10% of what they were spending on player development. By math, right? By math, they could not have possibly been spending more than, say, a hundred million on player development. And by the way, it's way less. It's like way less. A hundred million is a way overestimate, right? But just by basic, like the absolute most you can possibly mathematically come up with for them to spend on player development is a hundred million bucks. So they're going to be spending, say, 10, 12 million more on player development next season. Again,

Starting point is 00:19:17 I can emphasize this, it is less. It is definitely less, but in the most generous to them interpretation possible, if they're spending 10 to 12 million more on player development next season, but cutting 35 off the payroll, then there's like $23 million in the middle that don't appear to be going anywhere other than true ownership. That's the only place they can go. That's revenue that's not being turned in, you know,

Starting point is 00:19:43 unless their argument is going to be that they have like $25 million bucks and planned capital improvements on the stadium next season and they don't uh you know they're they're talking about they're going to be breaking ground on redoing the facility in jupiter this winter that will that will be an outlay but there is public money involved there as well as far back as 2019 Palm beach county approved 110 million dollars in public money i think it was split 55 55 to the cardinals and the marlins to redo roger dean so there will be an outlay there but it's not going to be It's really not. So the bottom line is just by taking their estimated revenues, taking their payroll,

Starting point is 00:20:24 and very conservatively anticipating a cut, there's a huge gap in between what they're cutting out of expenditures and what exists in revenues. Now, again, some of that is different in the world where the TV contract is a little up to grad. I understand that. The Cardinals are probably not going to get 60 million bucks for their TV rights next year, but they're not going to get nothing. and their cuts, by the way, are going to exceed that $35 million number.

Starting point is 00:20:51 And I guarantee you the dollar increase in player development spending will be less than $10 million. So there is a huge gap in there that can't really be accounted for. Okay. Okay. So we think that if that all plays out the way it is, that this is money that if they do need to sign some people or like, say like a Ryan Housley, who's due for a raise. Maybe they have money there to pay something like that if they want to, but this is more of a decision where they just want to lower things,

Starting point is 00:21:23 not because they have to lower things. Is that kind of what we're saying? Exactly, right. That interpretation is very charitable. It is far more likely that Ryan Helsley is traded this winter than that he signed an extension, right? But yeah, the bottom line is there's no reason why they couldn't increase their investment in player development and also spend on

Starting point is 00:21:44 big league free agents. Like you don't, the league does not make you pick one or the other. You can definitely do both, right? And choosing not to do both is number one, an acknowledgement that you don't think that thing or things in free agency that can help you compete, which I don't agree with. I'm not even remotely, but that's fine. And also that you're going to be turning a little bit more of a short term profit, right? Like this is sort of the dirty little secret of rebuilding is that owners like it because they are spending less and keeping more, right? They can say what they want about, you know, competitive futures and competitive success. Owners make more money sometimes with rebuilding teams than they do with competitive teams.

Starting point is 00:22:28 Yeah, because they don't have to pay as much for the expensive guys to win those games. You know, when I watch, you know, watching the playoffs right now and you go and look at it what the payrolls for, like, Philly was. and what the Mets wore. And I'm like, I wonder how much money they're actually making in the, in the long end of it all being, you know, because of their $300 million payrolls that they got going on right now. Which is interesting. And really, like,

Starting point is 00:22:51 the Mets are spending something like $100 million on guys who are not playing for them. Right. Right. Like their payroll of guys who aren't on the team has to be much bigger than Cleveland's and Detroit's this year, right? Yeah. But so why is it worth it? Number one, Steve Cohen is a Mets fan.

Starting point is 00:23:06 He wants to win. Great. But number two, because Steve Cohen owns. the Mets and the Mets are popular and successful, Steve Cohen can lean on the state of New York to give him a land deal at a profitable rate and allow him to build a casino next door to city field, which is what Steve Cohen wants to do, which is worth like billions over the lifetime. So, you know, is Steve Cohen maybe out of pocket going to lose, say, 30 million bucks this year? I think there's basically no chance of that. But even if we just assume that,

Starting point is 00:23:36 sure, Steve Cohen is going to eat 30 million in loss. And this year, and cash losses, I guarantee you the investment is multiple times fold over, right? Like the Cardinals were purchased for a net $75 million. The purchase price was $150. It was the team in the parking garages. They sold the garages a year later for 75. They recouped half the same. $75 million got the team to the DeWitt Group that owns it now.

Starting point is 00:24:02 The team now was worth like $2.5 billion. Yeah. So if there is a little bit of cash loss year over year, that probably is one that they could absorb, given to the asset that they've underquired underneath that has multiplied in value. But that's on how team owners think, right? And again, I know I'm rambling about this, but the other important thing to remember is when teams talk about their revenues and what losses look like, sometimes they're not actually talking about losses. They're talking about coming in under projection and describing that as lost. That is not the same thing.

Starting point is 00:24:36 If you think you're going to make 20 million bucks next year and you only make 15, you didn't lose $5 million. You made 15, right? These don't describe the same thing. But team owners, when they describe their revenues, describe them as though they are the same thing. Because it makes fans, look at all the greedy players who want to make $25 million a year. That's fine. The owner put like a zero in some other digits in front of that.

Starting point is 00:25:00 And that's what the owner is making. Gotcha, gotcha. All right. Well, that's very enlightening, if you will. So, you know, make sure you guys check out Jeff's story. I'm going to link it in the description. I'll put in the show notes for everybody as well. But it's up at B&D.com.

Starting point is 00:25:14 Just hit the little Cardinals tab there. It takes you right to while of Jeff's work. So we're going to talk about some of the big contracts that still remain on this team, whether or not Jeff thinks any of those guys are going to get moved. Plus, we'll talk about some of the bright spots heading into 2025 next on Locked on Cardinals. Hey, NFL fans. You can start the season with a big return on Fandul, America's number one sports, you know how sometimes I'll be watching a game and you can just sense a trend is happening.

Starting point is 00:25:44 You get a hunch, if you will, in the middle of the game. And now you can check out the latest stats. You can view the live play by play and so much more and do it on the same page where you place your bets on the Fandual app. They make it easily and accessible to you so you're not flipping around and then you get lost and you don't know what you're doing on there. They make it very easy for you. Tonight's game with the 49ers and the Seahawks. Perhaps you, you know, you're liking the way that Jordan May. who's filled in pretty good for Christian McCaffrey.

Starting point is 00:26:12 You like how he's running the ball for the Niners. Personally, I'm hoping for big things from Kenneth Walker. Fantasy-wise, he's been one of those guys. You know, he was out a couple of weeks, but it was one of the guys I'm banking on to be really good for my team this year. Randomly just had five carries last week. I don't know what that was about, considering he scored three times on the ground the previous week.

Starting point is 00:26:33 But I digress. Fandole will get you started with $200 in bonus bets, guaranteed when you place your first $5. bet. That's $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet at fandul.com. That's fandul.com. Thank you for making Lockton, Cardinals, your first listen today. Now go check out the Lockdown MLB podcast. Prepare for the fall classic that's happening right now. As we mentioned earlier, a lot of the exciting games going on throughout Major League Baseball. It's been a lot of fun to watch these teams. Just go back and forth against each other.

Starting point is 00:27:14 And Sully has got you covered on Lockdown MLB about all the games. part of the lockdown podcast network, your team every day. Jeff Jones covers the Cardinals for the Belleville News, Democrat with us today. Talking about, you know, payroll and they mentioned that payroll would be going down. We just kind of described how it doesn't necessarily have to happen. But there's this idea that there's this doomsday scenario coming for the Cardinals where everybody's for sale. Like we remember, it always reminds me of the Marlins years ago. They won a World Series.

Starting point is 00:27:41 And then they got rid of everybody. I don't foresee that being the case. but there's been a lot of talk. And some of these bigger contracts that still remain for veterans like Nolan Aronado, Suddy Gray, Wilson Contreras, these are guys that might be shopped this off season. What are your thoughts on that? And of those three guys, which one do you think is more likely to get enough attention that the Cardinals might make a move with them?

Starting point is 00:28:07 So of the three, that's an interesting question. Aronado, I guess, would be the one that would be easiest to move only, in so far as he comes in pedigree. He comes with not that much money remaining, actually. It's three years, and it's a hair less than $60 million. It's a perfectly manageable amount of money. And he plays a premium position. And so, you know, you could definitely see teams that would want to buy fair.

Starting point is 00:28:32 You know, with Sonny Gray, it's only two years left, but it is $65 million in cash, and he holds a full no trade. And so, you know, we heard a lot last winter about how it was important to Sunny to be within driving distance to home. You know, he got pretty close with the Cincinnati Reds last winter before the Cardinals kind of swooped in at the last moment. So if Sony comes to the Cardinals and says, okay, great, I'm happy to take a trade,

Starting point is 00:28:59 but it needs to be the only Cincinnati or Atlanta, and those deals aren't easy to figure out, then that's going to be a little bit of the challenge. You know, and then in terms of Contreras, again, Wilson holds a no trade clause, so he has a lot of control here as well. It's four years left on that deal, I believe, or three with an option maybe, actually. And again, the cash he's owed is roughly the same as what's owed to Aronado with like $57, $58 million somewhere in there.

Starting point is 00:29:26 But with Wilson, the question is always going to be, and it's going to be the question for the Cardinals if he stays and plays out to contract. You've got to read a question wherever he might end up being. Does the team really think that as he gets into his middle 30s, he's going to remain behind the plate? And if he doesn't, does that mean first base? Does that mean he's at the age? is the corner off field actually a thing? I think probably not, right? So it's just, it's a little bit of a smaller pool of guys to which he can be moved. Another thing, too, is that we do have some, like, there is some empiric information that we have from that only because Contreras was,

Starting point is 00:29:58 you know, a candidate to be dealt at the deadline in 22. He was a free agent, the winner of 22 and the 23, so we can sort of see how the league viewed him, you know, at least two years ago and get a sense that I think there are a lot of teams that could benefit from him, but there don't appear to be a whole lot of teams who would be super interested in working up a market that he's involved in. So, you know, maybe of the three, Contreras is the most likely to stay and flip a coin between Arnato and Gray that probably is weighted in the Arnato direction for who was more likely between those two. Ryan Housley. We touched on that a little bit earlier. Do a big raise in arbitration. Then we'll become a free agent. How do you see this ending? Do you think the Cardinals do anything to try to retain him or do you likely think that he's moved this off season? So that way, there's still a year of control for whoever trades for him. They get him for at least this one year instead of waiting around until the deadline next year. Yeah, I would be surprised if he wasn't moved this winter.

Starting point is 00:31:01 And that would be the case, you know, even if this team had made the postseason or even if this team was going into the winter and they weren't going to be going in this kind of reset, rebuild, re-whatever mode, it would still be likely that Healthy would be traded this winter just because, as you mentioned, one more year of team control. You know, with the reliever, the risk is always holding on a little too long. Things happen. Guys get hurt, right? Like Helsey has no injury history. And so it benefits the Cardinals almost certainly to make that move. this winner just because that way you guarantee you're trading him when he's healthy. He's never going to have more value than he does right now where he was one of the two best relievers in baseball last season. You know, he's never, you know, never, never, he will never have under, you know, this team control more value than he has right now.

Starting point is 00:31:46 And I throw the Cardinals and you're looking at a competitive window that maybe isn't going to really open back up for two or three years. What good does having one of the best closures in the game do for you? Probably not very much, right? his value to them is not as high as it has been, and his value to other teams will ever be higher, and that's when you see a guy get traded. Who's somebody that, like,

Starting point is 00:32:11 because one of the things, like, I feel like a lot of people are like, we get it, we understand why Housley will get traded. Who do you see is somebody that might be able to step into a closer type of role, or do you think it kind of goes, you know, a little bullpen by committee type of scenario to close out games for next year with the people that we have under control right now? now on this current roster?

Starting point is 00:32:33 So the first kind of jumps to mind is Jojo Romero, just because we saw him to it at the end of the 23 season. Now, Romero did not finish the year healthy. It didn't sound like a huge deal. You know, if you remember, he also didn't finish 23 healthy. I think he was in the aisle to finish that season. But it has closed and was pretty good down the stretch. You know, Romero's pitch profiling in the second half,

Starting point is 00:32:54 the spin, the velocity didn't look great. He had some, you know, really not great things going on underneath the hood. in the second half of 24. And so the fact that culminates in an injury makes you kind of wonder what his winner looks like and how much he can be relied on going in the next season. You know, I think if you were to pick out a guy today who is really, but not really likely, but who I would really keep an eye on in terms of closing games, it would be Matthew Libertor.

Starting point is 00:33:20 I think that the way that they have talked about the success he's had as a reliever, the success that we've seen him have as a reliever, his durability, you know, where he's that kind of personality. quality-wise, and they, well, I would never admit this, the still present desire to make that a Rosary in a trade book less bad, right? I think all of those things are variables to, you know, to certain value, but I'll point toward Libertory being a guy who is going to get a real shot at some important back-end innings next season. Yeah, and I am full on board with that. I loved what I saw from Libertory at the end of the year. Sure, he had a couple of hiccups here and there,

Starting point is 00:33:57 but I don't know. He looked awfully comfortable there. in the bullpen at the end, near the end of games and stuff. And I dug that big time. So he's the guy that I've kind of been like, yeah, I think that might be your dude if they end up going with like one guy, which may not be. And they may not. But yeah, that would that for sure is the guy who just jumps off the page to me.

Starting point is 00:34:18 And the other guy, too, that we should mention not quite, he doesn't have a similar of experience yet is Chris Roycroft, right? Because they love, love, love the way that he pops off the page, you know, on the radar and what his pitch mix looks like, the guy who doesn't scare. Those would be the two guys to me that I would see getting a lot of looks toward the back end of games, or at least more than they got this year. Next year, as far as the rotation goes, you know, as of right now, you've still got Sunny, you got a Fetty, you know, you've got Michaelis,

Starting point is 00:34:50 you've got Matt's, but you've also got a Palante, you got a McGreevy, and then we saw Quinn Matthews skyrocketed through this organization last year. And then, you know, at the end of the year, and I pointed this out. I was like, well, he's throwing a lot of eddings, man. He's probably wearing down a little bit. If you had to move like three different times and go through everything he did in his first full year pro ball, he'd probably a little exhausted by the time he got to Memphis. But what kind of role do you think Matthews might have as far as an impact on the major league roster next year?

Starting point is 00:35:24 And would it make moving somebody like Sunny Gray a little easier for the Cardinals to do? So I will start with that in saying that I don't think it's quite that analogous only in as much as the Cardinals would not be expecting Matthews to be able to come in and replace Gray's production, right? The hope that he could replace some of the innings. And that's possible, you know, and actually I wrote about this afternoon. It may be up now and they go up tomorrow morning about kind of the guys in the rotation. You know, a year ago we were talking about going out and getting the Cardinals signing three veterans and free agency to sort of stable. why isn't in the lockdown that rotation. Now we're going to be an important this winter where, you know,

Starting point is 00:36:06 I don't expect them to pick up Lance Lynn's option. It doesn't sound like they're picking up Kyle Gibson's. I know there are people in the organization who even on a rebuilding team think the Cardinals should be picking up Gibson's option. If for no other reason, then somebody has to physically take the ball. And that's the guy who you want to be like a veteran leader in that room for guys like Matthews. And, you know, and that has value.

Starting point is 00:36:29 does it have like $12 million in salary value a team that's looking to cut? We'll see. Just in terms of, you know, where does Matthews fit in? I think he will be invited to big league camp. I think you'll have every opportunity to make a mark. I think to make the club out of spring would either require, you know, some significant injuries or might require him just like pitching the lights out in spring, you know, having one of these zero ERA springs.

Starting point is 00:36:54 If for no other reason, man, there's not a real incentive for the Cardinals to punch the gas on him, right? Like, you know, historically, to their credit, we have not historically talked about the Cardinals in terms of being a team that artificially holds guys back from service time, right? They really have not historically been big service time manipulators. They did it a little bit to Dylan Carlson in 2020, but, you know, everybody got COVID. It was a weird year.

Starting point is 00:37:21 That's all to say that as a guy who, from like a cynical team perspective, you could really make a good argument for not having in the big leagues before June 1st next year for basically any reason because either he's not what you hope that he is today in which case whatever he'll perform AAA and he'll figure it out or if he is what the Cardinals hope that he is today what reason does a rebuilding team need to have that guy pitching for them before June 1st and putting himself in a position where he might you know who might for that extra year service time that's not great from a player perspective and it's not great for fans either, but I can very easily see a team kind of making that leap and getting themselves to that point.

Starting point is 00:38:05 You know, in terms of the rest of the veteran guys, I think that that he would be easy to trade if they were so inclined to do that. He actually, at the end of the year after his last start in St. Louis was asked, you know, what did you make of it? You know, how happy you'd be coming back, yada, yada, yada. And essentially said, well, I have a deal for next year, but I have to get through the winter meetings first. and was very self-aware of the fact that if this is a team that's going to step back,

Starting point is 00:38:29 he's going to be a really popular trade guy. The other guy who I think is a very obvious trade candidate is Stephen Mads, right? Just because he hasn't been healthy for three years, really, but he has been pretty good out of the bullpen. He has started. He's had decent stretches, and it's one year. It's only 12 million. And he has no trade protection, so he could go anywhere where somebody was interested.

Starting point is 00:38:55 right and you know the cardinals are in a spot where maybe just in terms of like ease of asset to move that mats and fettie are the guys who could very easily go this winter yeah that makes a lot of sense you know i don't know the the shine on eric fetti has worn off completely we saw a couple of games with the cardinals where he was very good and then he had he had he he made he made it was 10 starts and the era was like right at 375 he was like in the comparison i drew at the end of the season was he's Jeff Supon. He's perfectly fine. He's a good three or four, and he can take the ball. And if he starts with the Cardinals next year, they will probably win more of his games than they lose. But as a guy, you know, it's for the one-year deal and only 7.5, again, what does a really

Starting point is 00:39:40 good four-starter get the Cardinals compared to what is the return for that guy this winter? Yeah. And that's kind of where my Quinn Matthews thoughts go to is like, if you start shipping some of these veterans around and like I said, somebody's got to pitch. There's got to be somebody who takes the ball. So, uh, and to that end, yeah. And to that end, too, I will say that if the Cardinals do decline the option on Gibson, it would not totally shock me if they came back to him in free agency, right? They can decline the option and then sign him to a different deal. So, so right, exactly. So is there, you know, because his option is, is for 10 million, they have to pay him a million dollar, I'm sorry, his option is for 12. They have to pay him a million dollar buy on it.

Starting point is 00:40:21 So it's an 11 million dollar decision either way, right? Could they come back to him and sign him for one year and 10 after they could. They could very easily do something like that. Okay. So we've got some flexibility there. Going to wrap things up now because we're running a little bit long on time or whatever, but hopefully we'll get you back here when some more news breaks and stuff on what's going on with the Cardinals. We can talk more about the futures of guys like Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman and, you know,

Starting point is 00:40:50 how reliant they're going to be on those guys coming up in 2025. if they do plan to compete at all for a division title or anything or just trying to stay above 500, whatever the goal may be for next year. Hopefully we'll get Jeff back on to talk a little bit more about that. But thank you guys for making lockdown cardinals. You're first listening every day. If you haven't already, give us a follow on Twitter X at L1 underscore Cardinals

Starting point is 00:41:14 and at JD Sports Radio. Again, you can follow Jeff on Twitter access at J.M. Jones. Of course, hit him up at v.nD.com, the Bellville News Democrat to read all his coverage on the Cardinals. Jeff, as always, appreciate your time and appreciate your patience with people like me trying to understand what's going on money-wise with the Cardinals and Major League Baseball, buddy. No, no, no. Clearly, I'm happy to explain to anybody who wants to listen. No, I'm happy to do it anytime. All right. So go check out, Jeff. And remember, you guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason. And we will see you next time on Locked on Cardinals.

Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Wait... So The Cardinals Don't "Have" To Cut Payroll?

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.