Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - WAR Projections For The Cardinals In 2025

Episode Date: February 18, 2025

- Top WAR Projections - WAR Projections For The Offense And Pitching Staff - Nolan Gorman's Mental State https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/nolan-gorman-focused-on-bounceback-season-for-cardinals - News And Notes - Justin Turner - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Adam Ottavino - Geraldo Perdomo Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms… 🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOSTLCardinals?sid=YouTube Locked On MLB League-Wide: Every Team, Prospects & More 🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnMLB Follow on Twitter/X: @JDSPORTSRADIO Follow the show on Twitter/X: @LO_Cardinals Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Wonderful Pistachios Looking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious? Get snackin’ and get crackin’ with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more. SelectQuote Get the right life insurance for you, for less, at SelectQuote.com/LOCKEDONMLB. FanDuel Right now, new FanDuel customers can get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in Bonus Bets if your first FIVE DOLLAR bet wins!Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) #ForTheLou #stlcards #mlb #lockedoncardinals Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Which player is projected to have the best war this season for the Cardinals? We've got your answer on today's episode of Locked on Cardinals. You are Locked on Cardinals, your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals, I'm J.D. Haffern and I'm your host for Locktown Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. Give me a follow on X at JD Sports Radio. You can also follow the podcast at L.O. underscore Cardinals.

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So stop me if you've heard this one before, guys. For the first time and a long time, there's not a lot of faith in what's going on with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025, at least not nationally. I believe local media still thinks the team can put a better product on the field than the team is getting credit for. Some are more skeptical than others, and that's fine. There's reason to believe that the Cardinals are going to take a step back this year.

Every dayers know that I'm a more positive guy. I like to see things through, you know, the Cardinals red lenses, as you might have heard before, you know, but I'm leaning that way as well that I just think this team can be better than what, than what people are giving them credit for. Do I think it's a World Series caliber contending team? No, no, that's not what I'm saying. But I can also see this roster being a decent one and something that could actually contend for certainly a wild card spot. And who knows what happens in the division. You just never know what's going to go down. But I feel like there's a better chance for positive things to happen than to have it just blow up in their faces. But I can see how it

could happen that things would go sour real quick. Obviously, some things are going to have to go their way if they're going to be a winning ball club in 2025. Veterans got to stay healthy. Younger players who are going to get more opportunities this year, they've just got to be better. But you can say that about most teams in the league. I mean, that's pretty pretty easy formula that everybody's got to follow, right? If your best players, aren't your best players, normally things aren't going to work out. You're not going to be a very good team. Last year, the Cardinals, best players on offense were supposed to be Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Aronado, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Wilson Contreras. And four of

those guys were not good at all compared to what they had done in the past or what they were expected to do last season. So the offense struggled. Contreras playing half the season didn't help matters. He was good when he was out there, but he was only out there for half the season. Now, there are teams out there that have enough depth, have enough resources to overcome such a thing. Guys like the Dodgers, the Phillies, the Bets, the Yankees, you know, the big players in the league with the bloated payrolls. Those are the guys that, you know, can survive a couple of guys not quite living up to expectations where most of the team cannot do that. They just can't stay afloat like some of those other teams can do.

And the cardals are no different this year. You know, payrolls going down. They're putting the burden on becoming a better team this year on people in their organization, younger guys. So who are the projected best players on this roster? People that actually have to, they got to be good. or this team's going to be in trouble in 2025. Well, Thomas Harrigan at MLB.com use the projections for fan graphs depth charts,

which is a combination of the steamer and Zip's projection systems with expected playing time allocated by the Fangraph staff based on winds above replacement. That's what war stands for, for those of you who are unfamiliar. Here is the top projected player or in the Cardinals case, it's play yours. The Cardinals have two with a projected war of 3.5, and that is Sunny Gray and Mason win. Now, here's what Harrigan says about those two guys. The Cardinals, opening day starting pitcher, presumptive opening day starting pitcher, Sunny Gray, and their talented young shortstop or tied for the team's projected war lead entering 2025. Gray signed a three years, $75 million deal with the cards after the 2020-3 campaign and was worth $3.8 war, his first season with the club, hosting a 3.8 for ERA. with 203 strikeouts and 39 walks over 166 in a third innings,

when meanwhile produced a 3.6 war as a rookie in 2024 holding his own with the bat while providing superb defense and solid base running. And I'm already going to say that there is a mistake in that article because I'm reading straight from it. And that was not Sunny Gray's war last year. I will catch that right now. It was not 3.8. You're going to learn a little bit later what it actually was. but it was not 3.8. It wasn't 3.8 at all. In fact,

wins actually was higher than this as well. So I don't know where he's getting those particular stats from. That's not what we have anywhere else on the interweb here. The next question you might have, though, is how good is a 3.5 war? You know, is that pretty good for people unfamiliar with war? It's not great. It's not, you know, trash by any means. But for comparison, last year's war leader on ESPN was Aaron Judge at 10.8, followed by Bobby Witt at 9.4, Shohay Otani at 9.2, Gunner Henderson at 9.1. Jared Duran for the Red Sox, 8.7. Pitching-wise, you had the Tigers, Terrick Scoobel, who, you know, was incredible with the Tigers last year.

And Hunter Green from the Cincinnati Redside for a league lead for pitchers in war at 6.3, followed by the Braves Chris Sale, who won the NL-Side Young Award at 6.2. The Philly, Zach Wheeler, was next at 6.1. NL. Rookie of the year, Paul, Keynes came in fifth at 5.9. And then coming in at number six, and this is going to likely open up some eyes. The Cardinals, Eric Fetty, 5.6. Now, again, I'm going through ESPN there. So the war projections that Haringen might be talking about. Maybe that's something differently with fan graphs. And maybe that's why it's off a little bit. But compared to what the numbers I have that are listed here, according to like baseball reference and stuff. So there's probably just a little differences between the two, which would make a little bit of sense. But, you know, 3.5 isn't awful for Sunny Gray and Mason Wynn in 2025.

Now, let's take those numbers. And it gave me the idea to kind of like, well, if that's what the projected stuff at Fangraphs is, you know, what are those projections that they got for the Cardinals this year compared to what the guys finished with last year. So we're going to go into those numbers coming up next on Locked on Cardinals. In sports, having a winning strategy is everything. It's how the best teams make it to the Super Bowl or the World Series, the Stanley Cup, NBA finals, in the Olympics.

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We're looking at what the players did last year and comparing them. We're talking about their war, wins above replacement. So what was the war that the Cardinals finished with, like each player, we're going to go through the starters. What did they finish out last year compared to what these projections are going, excuse me, going to be this year for Fangraph. So we're going to start with Mason Wynn, who finished last year. who finished last year.

And this according to like, so I used baseball reference and then I got the fan grass projection. So if there's some differences there and how they calculate them, then that's why some of these numbers might be a little bit different because that just kind of struck me that things were a little off compared to what baseball reference had there. But anyway, last year, Mason went finished with a war of 4.9 on baseball reference, which led the team in this article. It said he was at what, three point, what they say? three point going back here. Hold on.

We're getting it all set up here. Don't worry. Don't worry. Three point six is what they're saying here. So I don't know. I don't know why the differences are what they are. I apologize for that. But baseball reference out of him at 4.9, which led the team. They have him at 3.5. So it's a little bit of a dip for Mason Wynn.

According to Fangrass, no one Aronado is next. He's projected at 3.2. Last year, he was at 2.5. So that's a little bit of a bump. Number three surprised me a little bit because I figured it would be Wilson Contreras, just because he seems like the best hitter on the team compared to what he's done over his career. And it's not. They're actually going to give the nod to Lars Neupar.

Newbar projected at 2.8 last year was only at 1.5. Obviously, we know why Newt could be, you know, somebody who has a better war. if he stays healthy, right? You got to keep him on the field. Brendan Donovan also at 2.8 last year. He was at 2.6, so relatively the same. Next up, still not Wilson Contreras, by the way. It's the Cardinals expected new starting catcher, Yvonne Herrera at 2.4, who was a 1.7 last season. Contreras finally comes in next as at a projected war of 2.2 last year. He had a war at 3.0. Again, out half the season. So who knows if it would have gone up, could have gone down.

We don't know. The dip there is probably because he's moving to first base someplace that he has never really played before outside of a few innings here and there. So last year's first baseman, Paul Goldschman, by the way, finished at 1.3 in case you were wondering. So just looking at the position of first base, Contreras at 2.2, that would be a step up from Paul Goldschman last year. At number seven, we have Alec Berlinson at 1.5.

he was a 1.2 last year. Then it's Nolan Gorman at 1.3. He was at 0.3 last year. Jordan Walker is at 1.2. He was a minus 0.9 last season. So the only guys they actually have being worse according to these projections. And last year is they got Mason Wynn coming down a little bit and Wilson Condreras coming down a little bit. So everyone else, they actually have going up some. On the pitching side of things, Sunny Gray is at the top of their projections with that 3.5. And I said, when you go to a baseball reference, it's got Sunny Gray last year at a 1.8 war. So I don't know what the difference is between what they had last year to what this one is on baseball reference. Eric Fetty, who we mentioned earlier, had that massive 5.6 war projected to come crashing back to Earth with a 1.9.

While he was with the Cardinals last year, because, you know, we did a lot of that good stuff in the first half of the season with the Chicago White Sox before he got traded. But when he did come to the Cardinals, his war was at 0.9. in case you're wondering. But 5.6 to 1.9 is quite the tumble. They're not expecting nearly as good of things out of Eric Fetty as he provided last year, which is kind of a bummer because, you know, Fetty is one of those like wildcard things going on here. I posted a question on X other than Sunny Gray, which veteran Cardinals pitcher, do you trust the most?

And the overwhelming vote, 76.3 goes to Eric Fetty, followed by Miles Michaelis and Stephen Matt's had a lot of people just saying, where's, you know, D, none. I understand that. If you're a little down on things, I get that completely. But, you know, if Fetty can be a lot like he was with the White Sox last year, that's going to be quite the boost. It's got to be quite the boost. And you saw glimpses of it when he came to the Cardinals last year, after the trade,

after the change, had a couple of games where it was kind of like, and then he looked a little bit more comfortable and we saw him pitch a couple of good games. Next up, as far as the starting pitchers go, Andre Palante is at 1.6 last year. He was at 1.6 as well. Miles Michaelis, they got at 1.6 last year. He was actually in the negative at negative 0.2 war. Next is your closer, Ryan Ellsley projected at 1.5. He actually led the Cardinals pitchers in war according to baseball reference last year at 3.0. Stephen Mats comes in next at 1.3.3.5. Stephen Mats comes in next at 1.3. He was also a negative last year at 0.2. As far as the starting rotation goes in the back in here,

they're not really putting a lot of stock in Michael McGreevy, projecting him at 0.1. He was a 0.9 last year. We know that was just four appearances, though. So a very, very small sample size. The guy that they think is going to get more action in the starting rotation this year is reigning minor league pitcher of the year, Quinn Matthews. who they project to have a war of 1.0.

Everyone else on the staff in the bullpen, everybody else is under one. So again, these are just projections. Lots of things can obviously change over the course of not only the season, but just here in spring training as the team gets revved up for their first spring games this weekend when they face the Marlins on Saturday. So we're only a couple of days away from some action between the Cardinals and the Miami Marlins. So spring training week two moving along quite quickly.

Coming up in our next segment, we're going to talk about one of the guys that we've constantly brought up this offseason that is going to need to improve dramatically for this team to succeed in 2025. And he used a journal to actually keep himself in a good spot mentally last year. you'll find out who that is next. Coming up on Locked on Cardinals. Thank you again for making Locked on Cardinals. If you're first listen today for your second listen, you can find Locked on MLB. Our baseball guru, Sully,

brings you a daily blend of humor in baseball, keeping you updated on all the teams. During spring training, you can find Locked on MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. Now, to say that last year was a step back for Nolan Gorman. It's an understatement, right? When he got called up in 2022,

there was a lot of hope. that this was going to be one of the big sluggers for the Cardinals in the near future. And hopefully, you know, for like the next decade, he popped 14 home runs and 283 official at bats. Then in 2020, he jumps to 27 diggers and 406 at bats. Yes, the strikeouts were always there. They were still there. He struck out 32.9% of the time in his first call-up last year, or in 2020, he was at 31.9% in the second year.

But as we've said time and time again, you can kind of make an exception, even though it drives me nuts, you can kind of make the exception for all these whiffs if the power and production comes along with it. As long as you're doing damage and those other bats that you're not striking out, you kind of live with the bad, right? You'll take the good. You'll live with the bad. But 2024, things just didn't work out at all. You know, Gorman still smack 19 home runs last year.

It's not like it was just something to sneeze at with 19 dingers and 402 official at bats. Not horrible, but down from the rate that he was going in 2023. So he was, you know, taking a step back in that perspective. And then the strikeout percentage, though. That was getting scary. It jumped up to 37.9% last year. The OPS, it plummets from 116 to 85. no longer were you getting the payoff for all the strikeouts.

Instead, you were just getting the strikeouts. You weren't getting much else. Between his last home run that he hit, which happened on July 22nd in the major leagues, before he got demoted to Memphis for the rest of the season, Gorman was in a tailspent going eight for 44. That's a 182 batting average. No home runs, no RBIs, one run scored in 16 strikeouts and only two walks. So he's not getting on base at all.

He's not hitting the ball over the wall. He's not doing much at all for you. And according to this new article from John Denton at MLB.com, one of the ways that Gorman was able to cope with the disappointment of the season was writing in a journal. According to this article, which I have linked in the description for you to read in full, he says, little soothed Gorman's tortured thoughts during his rocky 2024 season. But journaling kept him from bottling up his emotion. and gave him time to vent on his habit of journaling.

Gorman told Denton, I'll either do it at the field or right when I get home, but for me, it's a trigger to know that once that notebook is closed and I'm done writing everything down and it's over, knowing that whatever happened today, good or bad, is over, helps. It's about realizing then that the next day is more important. And in a game of like baseball, where you play almost every day, moving on from a bad play, a bad at bat, or just a bad game over raw, It's extremely crucial to you being able to succeed over the entire season. Quick story real quick.

I had a game back in high school, and we were one of the top teams in Missouri in the state that year. And early in the season, we had a game where I made three errors at shortstop in one inning. And granted, I was an Ozzie Smith playing shortstop by any means, but I was a decent glove. I was in some scrub out there and we were playing on a field that was, I remember this, it was all dirt, but the ball played like it was coming off of AstroTurf, okay? I don't know if it was just because it wasn't very dusty. I don't know what it was, but it was a very hard infield, very hard surface. And the ball would really pick up speed quicker.

The bounces were like bigger and faster. And, you know, I had trouble in warmups with it because it wasn't something that, you know, I was used to. and you know how it is. And, you know, when you're playing in high school games, like you get a couple of ground balls and it's over. Like, it's not like you get this whole hour to warm up like you would in the major leagues. And lo and behold, I have this inning from hell. I have this inning from hell early on in the game. And I was just so mad at myself that I carried those plays over to what I had to do in my next at bat. And of course, I had a crappy at bat. And it wasn't until my summer league coach comes walking over. And he talks to

man, he simmers me down, calls me down. And he was able to get my head right where it was just like, look, it's over. You got to move on. This is, you know, you're a big part of what's going to happen in this game. And they're not going to win it without you. We need you to get, you know, come on, come on. And I was able to go on and have a couple of key hits later in the game and make a few plays in the field.

And we came back and ended up winning the game. But it just reminded me of like, you know, how important that is where turning the page quickly how huge it can be in the game of baseball because, you know, the next ball could be hit right at you, you know, next to bat could be the next inning. You know, you've got a game tomorrow. And, you know, I love, it makes me feel good to hear that Nolan Gorman is figuring out a way to help him get past those situations where, you know, if he had a tough day at the field, but is able to just move on and focus on tackling the next day instead. It makes me think that his mind is in a good spot to be a successful major league baseball player.

And good for him, you know, the mental side of this game. It's just so important. And I brought it up before with Gorman that, you know, watching him last year and when he gets in these ruts, the body language. You can just see it on his face and in his body language that, you know, he looked defeated. He looked lost and he looked like he didn't have any more confidence at the plate anymore. And that's a tough spot to be in. And we're talking about a young player, too.

This is not, you know, a 28, 29-year-old veteran who's been around and has learned the ropes. You know, this is a, this is still a young man who's, you know, his whole life. He's been probably the best player on his team no matter where he went. And finally is getting a taste of what it's like to struggle. Same thing can be said about Jordan Walker has been the best player on every team he's ever played on, no matter where he went. And finally not succeeding like he's used to. it's a tough pill to swallow for these young guys. So it was good to hear in this article that instead of taking the demotion to Memphis as,

you know, a form of punishment and being all upset at himself about it and maybe even making things worse on himself, Gorman used it as a chance to study his swing. He told Denton that getting sent down might have been the best thing for him. He said what I did in Memphis was actually pretty good. I know the regular stat line was very good, but I was consistently on the barrel. there was a consistent period where I felt like I was back on my game. And in the 23 games where he was down in Memphis last year, he swatted seven home runs, hit four doubles from Memphis,

batting average at 203, but I think we've all learned by this point that batting average isn't everything in this game anymore. I know it's a nice thing to have, but like you said, if he's barreling up things and they're hitting it right at people, your batting average is going to go down. But when you go back and look at things, you're like, I got a good swing there.

I put the, you know, the ball hit the barrel. I'm doing things well. They're just not finding the holes yet unless he's clearly hitting it over the wall where he hits seven home runs. We know that he's been working with new hitting coach, Brant Brown, a lot this off season. He talks about it a little bit in this article where it says that they've been working together almost daily because both of them live out in Arizona. So it's not like Gorman is just, you know, trying to get by here. he's certainly doing the things necessary to improve his game for this year so that he can be a bigger impact on this offense and on this club in 2025. And yeah, I know I've been tooting the Nolan Gorman Horn since he got called up.

So, of course, I will continue to back him and die on this hill that says Gorman and Walker should and will be very good Major League Baseball players for the St. Louis Cardinals. and they're going to be two of the biggest keys for this team this coming season. You know, if Gorman becomes that Max Muncie guy that I keep referring to, that I think he can be, and Walker can get back to being the guy that he was at the end of his first year when he hit 304 with four home runs and 12 RBIs over his final 27 games. And again, last year, getting every day playing time at the Major League level, hit 253, five home runs and 16 RBIs and his final 25 games.

I mean, you get that from Walker and you get the Nolan Gorman that I think he can be. Plus, you get a better Nolan Aronado, I'm not saying, you know, MVP caliber guy that we saw a couple years ago, but a better Nolan Aronado with a plate this year. A healthy Wilson Contreras, Mason Wynn continues to continue his progression and become better, not regress in year two. You get the bat of Yvonne Herrera, who I saw some video earlier, hitting the ball very hard in spring. You know, you get his bat, which seems like it's going to be pretty darn good at the major league level. This offense should be better than it was last year.

And that's where a lot of the problems were. We know the bullpen was very good last year. We know the starting rotation did their jobs for the most part. It was the offense that struggled all year long. And you're hoping that your pitching staff remains the same. It could still be quite, you know, as good as they were. And the offense can get back to the level that we think they can get to in 2025. And to me, that equals more wins.

And, you know, should put the rest some of the, oh, the cardals are suck now and they're not going to be any good this year. But again, a lot of this stuff has to happen for them to succeed. News and notes from around the league real quick, the Cubs reportedly signed free agent Justin Turner to a one-year deal worth $6 million, a chance to earn another $2.5 million in incentives. Justin Turner now 40 years old, but he still had a decent season last year, 259, 11 home runs and 55 RBIs between the Blue Jays and the Mariners.

A good part-time guy to have on your bench and to be able to put in those starting lineup here and there. Been a solid hitter for a long time. So not a bad signing for the Cubs. what they've got on their roster. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This was big news, the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. Unable to come to an agreement on an extension. And according to reports, does not plan to negotiate with the team during the season,

which means he's going to be testing free agency. That could get expensive and could be kind of, kind of exciting. Do the Dodgers need another first baseman? What's the word on Freeman? They still want to, they still love him. I know, you know, coming off surgery last year. but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Obviously a huge name to keep an eye on.

You know, things go south this year for the Blue Jays. He's never said anything about not wanting to be in Toronto. And in fact, most of the stuff I read is he, that's where he wants to be. You know, he wants in his career there. But things change. And trade deadline this year. What if Vladimir Jr. is available. That could be fun.

Former Cardinal Adam Otavino has signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox, 39 years old now, we'll earn 2 million salary. If he makes the roster, if he doesn't make the 40 man out of camp, we'll have the freedom to opt out of his contract and return to free agency. Dude's been, I shouldn't say stuck, but a very good relief pitcher over the year, specifically against right-handed hitters. He's a guy that I've always wanted to see him come back into a Cardinals uniform, two and two, four-point-three-four ERA last year for the Mets.

if this Nick Anderson thing doesn't work out, and they don't find a capable guy to fill that Andrew Kittridge roll from, you know, in the bullpen as a right-handed pitcher. And Atavino doesn't make the Red Sox roster. Obviously, he's not going to cost very much. So I don't know, keep him on the speed dial. The diving backs also come to an agreement on a four-year, $45 million extension with shortstop, Heteraldo, Perdomo.

Not much of a hitter, but an excellent defender, 10 defensive runs saved last year. Mason win, by the way, let all short stops with 14 defensive runs say for those of you keeping track at home. All right. Thanks for making Locked on Cardinals. Your first listen to every day if you haven't already. Please give us a follow on X at L.O. underscore Cardinals and the JD Sports Radio. TikTok at Locked on Cardinals. Like, subscribe on YouTube, help our channel and our love for the Cardinals grow. You guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason. And I will see you next time on Locked on Cardinals.