Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - What's Up With Sonny Gray?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Another shaky start for Sunny Gray, plus a couple of Cardinals players receiving some national media love as breakout members for 2025. You are Locked on Cardinals, your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals. I'm J.D. Hafer and I am your host for Lockedong Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. You can follow me on exit, JD Sports Radio. You can follow the podcast at, LO underscore Cardinals. We're on YouTube. Make sure you come by, like, subscribe, and comment,

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Starting point is 00:00:53 Today's episode brought to you by Fandle. Right now, new customers can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. Let's get into it. Sunny Gray. Let's choose our words carefully. Sunny gray looks terrible this spring. Hasn't he?

Starting point is 00:01:12 I mean, how are we going to sugarcoat this, right? You can't. You can't. What we've seen from Sunny Gray so far this spring has been terrible. He's getting hit. He's getting hit hard. And there's been very little to get excited about besides the strikeout total, I guess. I mean, you can, that's a positive.

Starting point is 00:01:38 I mean, what we saw from Sunny Gray on Friday, part of it was like, well, you see some things that are okay, but at the same time, you go look at the final numbers, and you're like, he's still got it hard. Gives up a couple singles in that first inning. The second one from Yiner Diaz, 105.5 off the bat, gets out of the inning unscathed note. They'll give up any runs.

Starting point is 00:02:02 Yay. But then in the second inning, gives up the soft infield single to the lead-off guy. Then there's another single to left field and 106.9 off the bat. And then he serves up a three-run home run to their number nine hitter, McCormick, on an absolute meatball change up. A high school kid could have crushed that. Coming in at about 90 and just right down the middle, man.

Starting point is 00:02:33 Seventh home run that he's given up in the spring. and it's three to nothing, just like that. He strikes out all too big. And again, again, the strikeouts, he's striking people out, which is good. That means he's got that swing and miss still. He's missing his spots, though. But then a double off the wall in center

Starting point is 00:02:52 and they end up pulling him. In that second inning, the devil ends up scoring. So by the time Sonny comes backed out because of the reentry rule, it's four to nothing. He settles down a bit after that. Give him credit there. He did settle down a little bit after that, one, two, three, next inning with two strikeouts,

Starting point is 00:03:09 then another one, two, three inning in the fourth. And when you start to feel like, oh, hey, he's got something going here, he's clicking, start to feel a little bit better about whatever Sonny had done, he gives up another dinger, home run to the leadoff hitter, curveball, right over the middle of the play, Jeremy Pena, swats it, over the wall and center, 424 feet away, closes out the inning with a couple of groundouts

Starting point is 00:03:36 and a strike got to end his day, but that's now eight home runs given up this spring by Sunny Gray. And I'm sorry, but that's not normal. I don't care what you're working on. Giving up eight dingers is horrible. He had a bad second half last year, the ERA of 4.59, where he gave up 13 home runs in the second half. Now this spring he's got an ERA of 12.56.

Starting point is 00:04:04 He's giving up 20 runs on 23 hits. Eight of them have left the yard in just 14. and a third innings pitched. And yeah, he does have 17 strikeouts, but holy cow, you can't tell me you weren't hoping for better results than this. From your opening day starter, this is what you got,

Starting point is 00:04:28 like a little sliver of a little sliver of like, it's okay, I guess, right? Oh, terrible, terrible. And he's saying the right things. You know, when he talks for poor, I'm healthy. You know, the Velo's not where people want to see it. He wants to be throwing between 93 and 94, but he's not quite there yet. We found out he got an injection last season in his elbow.

Starting point is 00:04:58 And that kind of put him behind schedule as far as his pitching, like his regimen, like getting ready for the year. year from John Denton, pain killing injection and the flexor tendon of the right forearm late last season, delayed his offseason program, injury is no longer an issue. But Gray said, but the delay could be a reason for his lower velocity. I mean, I'm a little nervous about this, considering how important Sunny Gray is to this rotation. I'm a little nervous that we didn't see a better result over the last.

Starting point is 00:05:39 you know, two appearances. He keeps saying he's going to be fine. When the lights come on, I'll be there. All right. All right. Lights are coming on next week. Meanwhile, against the Mets in Fort St. Lucy, our guy Michael McGreevy tosses five shutout innings,

Starting point is 00:05:57 allows a hit, struck out four ERA spring at 1.08, has allowed his two runs in 16 and two-thirds innings. 12 strikeouts, no walks. He's been beautiful. He's been beautiful. he belongs in the rotation. Will he be in there? We'll see.

Starting point is 00:06:14 We'll see if they do the six-man thing. But, you know, they've got veterans that are filling up all of the roster spot. So we'll see. Cardinals lose both of their games, five to three to Houston, three to two to the Mets. Victor Scott the second, another home run. He also walked and scored two runs. So he's now up to 366 for the spring with four dingers. Leads the team and hits with 15 runs with 11, tied with

Starting point is 00:06:38 Lucan Baker for home runs with those four home runs, tied for third in walks. Still leads in stolen bases at five. Meanwhile, Michael Siani was over three with a walk in two Ks now hitting 105, but Michael Siani might be on this roster instead. Like it's so bizarre. And we can make the argument about it. Like I understand. I do.

Starting point is 00:06:59 I get it. I understand why if Victor's not going to play every day in the pros, they'd rather see him playing every day in AAA. I get it. It just sucks. It just sucks. Same thing with Michael McGreevy. If he's not going to be pitching in the rotation like a normal person,

Starting point is 00:07:14 they'd rather him being on a normal schedule every fifth day doing his thing at Memphis. I understand it, but it's not making the Major League team better. It just doesn't. Quinn Matthews, pitch well against Houston, four innings, no runs, three hits, two walks, struck out six. Not a lot of offense, though, for the Cardals in either one of these games. They did get home runs from Ryan Ballade, who's been a fun guy to watch this spring. And then catching prospect Leonardo Bernal hit an absolute rocket against the Mets.

Starting point is 00:07:42 That was a thing of beauty. Ooh, he swings the bat well. Katie Wu from the athletic said that her sources tell her that Jose Fermin has won that job over Jose Barrero for the utility bench roll. I haven't seen any official announcements about that, but I mean, who's not going to trust Katie? She knows her stuff. Makes sense. He's been swinging a hot stick recently and can also play infield. And you've seen them, you know, moving them around the outfield, trying to get some work.

Starting point is 00:08:07 out there, so I get it. I hope Barrero at least sticks around the organization, though, because we did see some flashes of the talent that he does possess. So I hope they don't lose out on him. Mason Wynn was back in the lineup on Friday as well. I want to talk about him because the ceiling for Mason Wynn is pretty darn high, even though he's had a tough spring. So we'll get into that next on Locked on Cardinals. March Madness is here and Fandul is giving you the chance to get in on the action like never before right now. New customers can get $200. in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. Pretty good, right?

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Starting point is 00:11:55 your feedback as always welcome and encouraged. Mason went back in the lineup on Friday against Houston significant because he'd been out a couple of days with that sore wrist. And although at no point in time was the injury ever talked about as being anything serious, they never blew it out of proportion or anything. The word used precautionary, strictly precautionary to keep him out of the lineup. But I was really hoping that maybe a few days off would allow Mason who had celebrated his 23rd birthday on Friday.

Starting point is 00:12:23 So happy birthday, Mason. It would allow him just kind of take a step back, take breath, reset things for himself. Because it's been a really tough spring for Mason after, you know, last year he appeared to be the guy that was taking over as the face of the franchise. And I still believe he's fine and going to be doing that. But he goes 0 for 4 again on Friday. The batting average for the spring is now down to 80. He's four for 45, no extra base hits, no home runs, one RBI, just three walks, 13 strikeouts. Not a lot of positives there.

Starting point is 00:12:55 But in case you've lost any faith in Mason when, because some of you might be like, okay, maybe he sucks now, which he doesn't. But if you've lost a little faith in him last spring, my guy hit 227, no home runs, one RBI, five walks, 17 strikeouts, similar numbers, right, outside of the batting average. and I think we can all agree last season turned out pretty good for Mason Wend. For those of you don't remember that, Mason Wend ended up bidding 267, 15 dingers, 57 ribbies as a 22-year-old rookie. And I remember having a lot of fans in spring training, like chirping at me saying,

Starting point is 00:13:31 this kid can't hit at the major league level. What are we doing with this guy? He's trashed, not good enough for major league pitching. Trade him for some pitching or turn him into a pitcher because of his arm. I myself at one time, not. not last year, but at one time, one of the Cardinals to trade him for catcher Sean Murphy, who was still with the A's at the time back in 2023,

Starting point is 00:13:53 and then go out and sign a shortstop like a Trey Turner, Carlos Correa, Dan Svys B. Swanson, these were the guys that were available. Mason wins 4.9 baseball reference war in 2024, higher than all three of theirs. So maybe it was a mistake. I was in win mode now when I was saying we should, We should trade him for Sean Mervry.

Starting point is 00:14:16 I thought he would be the missing piece. And he's been pretty darn good for the brains when he's healthy. But that's not what happened, right? And one person that's predicting big things from Mason Wend, outside of the Cardinals organization and outside of St. Louis, is the Athletics Jim Bowden, who has him listed as a member of his 2025 all MLB breakout team. Basically, it's a 26-man roster.

Starting point is 00:14:41 And it's made up of promising players to watch. Lodge. He does this annually. And the way he describes a breakout player is a player that he expects to perform at a significantly higher level than their major league track record or to burst onto the scene and blow away the rookie field. So there's no like age limit on this. But, you know, just some guys from the NL Central from the Pirates. He's got O'Neill Cruz and starting pitcher Jared Jones, although Jones dealing with

Starting point is 00:15:10 that Elmore discomfort right now, which that would be a major blow to their road. if he's going to be out for a while. The Reds got a couple guys. Second baseman Matt McLean coming back from injuries, starting pitcher Nicodolo, comes their basement, Matt Shaw. And then he's got Mason Wynn as one of the shortstops. He's got National Shortstop C.J. Abrams in there as well,

Starting point is 00:15:31 who's obviously a fine young player. One of the guys they got in the Juan Soto deal when they sent Soto to San Diego. Abrams, one of the guys they got in that massive package. Remember when St. Louis almost got him? Do you remember that? Remember how excited we all were when Mo was in the press box at the Nationals and Cardinals game? And we're like, oh my gosh, oh my gosh, Juan Soto's coming to St. Louis. And then didn't happen.

Starting point is 00:15:59 Didn't happen. But this is what Bowden says about when. When has one of the best infield arms in baseball, even it often results in a two-seem sinker rather than the preferred four seamers. We're talking about the movement throwing it over to first base. His throws across the diamond can be clocked between. 95 and 100 miles per hour, which shouldn't be a problem for Cardal's new first baseman, Wilsa Contreras, who was used to that, used to that type of velocity when catching some members of the team's pitching staff. A gold glove finalist last year,

Starting point is 00:16:27 win has plus range to both sides, which isn't always appreciated because he and third basement, Nolan Aronado often overlap each other. When hit 267, 314 on base percentage, 14 home runs, or 15 home runs, 32 doubles, 5 triples, 11 steals. He's committed to improving his ability to draw walks and hit, line drives at his prime for improvement in his third big league season. And I couldn't agree more with that assessment. That not only should he get better, doesn't feel like he's one of these types of players that's, you know, flash in the pan, one and done type of talent, does he?

Starting point is 00:17:03 But I agree that he definitely needs to improve on his ability to draw walks, especially if he's going to remain as the leadoff hitter for this team, which seems to be the plan. We've been harping on this for a couple days now, but if you want to be a good lead off hitter, which Mason Win, I'm sure does, and you want to steal more bases, which is something that he's actually brought up and says, I want to do this this year. I want to get like 30 steals. Then you have to get on first base first. And you got to do it by any means. So if you got to take walks, if you got to cut down on your aggressiveness as far as swinging the bat, then that's what you got to do. And it's not easy to do that, especially when what he's been.

Starting point is 00:17:43 doing his whole life has gotten him to this point in the first place where, you know, he's a finalist for a gold glove. And he was one of the rookie of the year candidates. You know, he's, again, 23. All of this has been working for him all along. And now you want to switch it up a little bit. And I'm not talking about changing your swing or anything like it. I'm just saying being a little more patient at the plate. They brought it up in the telecast and in the, you know, in the game yesterday when you're listening, because the Houston, wasn't on, but about like he just always seemed like he was behind in the count. And then Newt Bar comes up next.

Starting point is 00:18:21 And they're like, and he always seems like he's ahead in the count. Like, why is that? Let's figure it out. And so far this spring, you just haven't seen a lot of indications that he's willing to take walks any more than he has in the past, which is a big mistake if you're going to be a leadoff hitter. I mean, I have faith in him. I'm not bashing the dude by any means. I think he's going to be good.

Starting point is 00:18:41 his stats from last year show you that he should be fine this year despite this slow spring. And I'm glad he's getting some national recognition for the talents that he possesses because he deserves it. But if he's going to be the lead off hitter, it's time to just kind of you got to be a little more patient. It's just part of the, it's part of the role. It is what it is. The athletics, Keith Law, also threw a little love to a Cardinals player in his breakout article. We're going to talk about him next on Locked on Cardinals. The NCAA tournament is here and so is the Bracket Breakdown.

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Starting point is 00:20:20 wherever you listen to your podcast. Now, when the Cardinals found out that Wilson Contreras didn't want to leave St. Louis, part of me thinks they were slightly disappointed, but only because of the salary implications, not because of who Wilson is or the player he has. Contreras is in year three now of his five-year, 87.5 million-dollar deal that he signed with the team in 2023. He's going to make $18 million towards payroll this year. But the human being that Contreras is the bat that he possesses.

Starting point is 00:20:50 is the attitude that he brings is not something I think the Cardinals were eager to get rid of. We love it. We love it. So when he decided that he preferred to stay in St. Louis, they were like, all right, well, what's the best way to utilize Wilson Contreras right now? We're glad he's sticking around. What do we do? First base was opened up, you know, which I'm sure was a tough decision because they had to let

Starting point is 00:21:13 Paul Goldsmith walk, another person that everybody loves. The front office, players, coaching staff, fans, everybody. loves Goldie. But when you need to cut payroll and you got certain guys, you can't move, something had to give. And if Goldie's production had been better last year, then things might have been different. But with Goldie out, Contreras slides over to first base where, you know, they weren't quite sure if Lucan Baker was going to be the guy or not. And so far, you know, Contreras has looked pretty good defensively over at first. Handle himself pretty well. And obviously, We're not concerned all that much about his bat.

Starting point is 00:21:52 I mean, the guy can rake. He was hit number 400 coming into the game on Friday. But the other side of this was what it was going to do for the catching position. It opens up a spot at that position so that both Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pahez could be on this roster. And after Wilson's injuries last year, you know, the duo had to take control of the position. And they impressed in different ways, you know, Herrera with his offense, Pahas with his defense. If you could melt the two together, you'd have one hell of a full-time catcher. But barring any miracles of science, that is not going to happen.

Starting point is 00:22:27 But of the two, the one that has drawn some national attention is Ivan Herrera because of his bat. Keith Law, who also writes for The Athletic, did a breakout article of his own, similar to kind of what Jim Bowden did, but it's a bit more condensed. And he listed Ivan Herrera is one of his guys that he thinks will break out. here's what he had to say. I've always bought the bat. As Herrera has a great swing, it makes a ton of contact, but in a small sample last season, he showed that he can make plenty of hard contact too. His hard hit rate and exit velocities would put him around the MLB median for catchers had he played enough.

Starting point is 00:23:05 He got just under a half of a season of playing time last year and was worth 1.7B War. I think he'll double that this year, assuming he gets twice the at bats. he did struggle to control the running game last year, and that could impact how much the Cardinals, which seemed very sensitive about catcher defense in the post-Yadier Molina era, play him defensively. Now, we know Herrera worked on his throwing in the offseason. But he was almost, if you go back to it,

Starting point is 00:23:34 he was almost like Rube Baker in the much malign Major League 2, right, where he just couldn't figure out how to throw things accurately down to second base. Now in the movie, Roob's got like this mental block. And it's totally different issue than what Herrera has. That's not what Herrera was dealing with. But it just, it was awkward. It was weird. And we couldn't get accurate throws or bouncing over to second base or there's flying off to the sides.

Starting point is 00:23:58 And it was rough to watch. It was rough to watch. And, you know, whether it's his arm, whether it's the inability of the Cardinals pitchers to hold runners better, probably a combination of the two. But it was an ugly scene last year. And after being spoiled year after year with the Adair Molina behind the plate, and then Mike Mathini before him, Tom Pagnazi before that, you know, the Cardinals have had a lot of stud defensive catchers.

Starting point is 00:24:25 And then for this to show up, you're like, oh my gosh, you know, runner stole 55 bases while Herrera was behind the plate. I got the stats for it. 55 while Herrera was behind the plate last year, they were only caught four times. Four, 93% success rate. rate. That's brutal. Runners stole 61 bases off of Pahas when he was behind the play. They were caught 14 times. That's an 81% success rate. So if you combine them, you get 116 stolen bases against the Cardinals while Herrera and Pahez are behind the plate. Only 18 were caught stealing in 134 attempts. And that's in over like a thousand combined innings, which is about 112 games. Baha's defensive runs saved were plus three last year.

Starting point is 00:25:14 Herrera was minus seven behind the plate. Combined minus four defensive runs saved last year. That's rough. Just for reference, let me, the gold glove winners last year at Catcher, you had Cal Raleigh in Seattle. You had Patrick Bailey for the Giants in the end out. Runner stole 81 bases against Cal Raleigh last year, and were caught 32 times.

Starting point is 00:25:38 That's 72% success rate. And that was also in more innings than the combination of Herrera and Pius. His defensive run saved were 17. Bailey in San Francisco, runners stole 70 against him. We're caught 26 times, 73% success rate. Defensive run saves at 20. So it just shows you how far apart we are cardinals-wise between the elite, defensive level guys in the league and where the cardinals are sitting right now,

Starting point is 00:26:07 at least in 2024. Now, what sets Herrera apart is the offense he can provide. Limited role last year, 301, five dingers, 27 ribbies, OPS plus of 124. Pa has much lower. 238, seven home runs still, with the OPS plus at 82, which is similar to what Bailey does for San Francisco. Cal Raleigh is, you know, stud defensive. He's arguably the best catcher in baseball.

Starting point is 00:26:34 220, 34 home runs, 100 ribbyes last year, OPS plus 119. But the Cardinals need offense, right? And that what we've, coming off of last year, what was the big missing ingredient? Wasn't really the starting pitching or the bullpen, right? Offense. Couldn't generate enough offense. They are desperately hoping they're going to get more from Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker this year. And I really hope they do.

Starting point is 00:26:56 I want to see both these guys succeed big time because if they do, it's going to make this offense way better, like scarier better with what they could be. compared to what they are right now. But if they don't, I don't know how you can sacrifice Yvonne Herrera's bat so that you can get Pahez's defense. Like, I just don't know if they're going to be able to do that.

Starting point is 00:27:22 The Cardinals are just going to have to figure out. They've got two options, really. A, teach Herrera to be a better catcher. B, teach Pahas to be a better pitcher. And A sounds like it's an easier thing to do than B. But who are you guys hoping? will be behind the plate for the Cardinals for the majority of this season. You go in Herrera, you go in Pahas.

Starting point is 00:27:43 I think it's got to be Herrera. And again, there are some things here that you can do late in games if you need to bring in Pahas as a defensive replacement. Same thing with like a Michael Ciani, you know, Jordan Walker, if you're up by a few runs, you pull Jordan Walker, you bring Siani in, you shift nude over, whatever you got to do. There's possibilities for later in the game, but I just can't, I don't know how you can take Yvonne Herrera's bad out of this lineup. you know, I cannot see a 50-50 split or a 60-40 split.

Starting point is 00:28:13 Again, I think it's got to be an 80-20 type of situation with Herrera. But let me know what you guys think. Cardinals will face the Marlins on Saturday, which is today at the time of this recording. Matthew Libertor is going to get that start. Marlins have hit the hard. The cardinals pretty darn hard the last few times they played each other. So hopefully a better day today for the staff. Thank you for making lots on Cardinals.

Starting point is 00:28:33 Your first listen every day. If you haven't already, please give us a follow on. at L.O underscore Cardinals at a JD Sports Radio on TikTok and Instagram at Lockdown Cardinals. Like, subscribe on YouTube, help our channel and our love for the Cardinals grow. You guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason, and I'll see you next time on Lockdown Cardinals.

Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - What's Up With Sonny Gray?

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