Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Who Will The Cardinals Take At #5?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The St. Louis Cardinals are drafting number five overall in tonight's MLB draft. So here's a look at who the experts think they will or should take with their pet. You are Locked on Cardinals. Your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked on Podcasts network, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, they're Cardinals. I am J.D. Haffert and I am your host for Lockstone Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. Follow me on X at JD Sports Radio. as well as the podcast at L0.W underscore Cardinals. We're on YouTube as well as TikTok, Instagram at Locktown Cardinals. This is a show serving Cardinal Nation and giving the best fans of baseball, all of the info about the birds on the bat. Today's episode brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time Math.

Starting point is 00:00:49 Create an account. Use the code locked on MLB. Get $20 off your first purchase. Cardinals dropped the first two games of their final series before the All-Star break against Atlanta, both one-run games. Saturday's game was a crushing defeat after coming back and taking the lead, only to see it evaporate in that eighth inning. We can discuss that stuff on Monday. But tonight is a big night because it's the MLB draft.

Starting point is 00:01:12 Not only are the Cardinals, you know, first off, they're trying to salvage a game against the Braves today. Anyway, but it's draft night and the Cardinals once again have a very good pick. In fact, that's a great pick. Number five, they had number seven last year, number five this year. Top five picks do not happen often for the St. Louis Cardinals. Last year, they picked in the top 10 for the first time in 26 years.

Starting point is 00:01:34 when J.J. Weatherholt fell to them at number seven overall. And, you know, so far so good for J.J. You know, he's already at AAA Memphis and doing well. We saw him in the futures game yesterday, where he led off the bottom of the first inning with a double, finish one for four on the night. But so far so good in his career, J.J. Weatherholt was expected to possibly go number one overall last year, kept sliding and all of a sudden just landed in the Cardinals lap and they're like, thank you. Thank you very much. And he looks the part. Like he looks like he's going to be up in the major leagues.

Starting point is 00:02:10 For sure next year at some point, maybe. We'll see how bigs go this year. Maybe you see him in a Cardinals uniform at some point before this year wraps up. The Cardinals are set to pick at number five now. And this is the first time they've done that since 1998. Got J.D. Drew back in the day, Drew was the best college player in the nation in Florida State a year before, taken number two overall by the Philadelphia, Philly. if you want to see somebody get angry,

Starting point is 00:02:36 go ask a Phillies fan what they feel about JD Drew. They were unable to sign him. It was a money thing. He went back in the draft. Cardinals pounced on him at number five. And although he never reached the ceiling that we all wanted him to, or we thought he was going to be, especially with the Cardinals,

Starting point is 00:02:54 because he had some successful years after he left St. Louis with Braves and the Dodgers and the Red Sox. But certainly worthy of the fifth choice overall, had a solid MLB career, was an All-Star in 08, won a title with the Red Sox. And let's not forget, the Cardinals traded him to the Atlanta Braves. And when they did that, they got Ray King, serviceable left-hander. They got Jason Marquis, serviceable starter. And then that Adam Wainwright fellow, I don't know if you guys are familiar with what he did,

Starting point is 00:03:22 but yeah, pretty good. That one worked out. And this year, the Cardinals are hoping that whomever they grab at number five can be an impactful player as well. So who should we be keeping an eye on, really, is what I want to relay here to you today. Some of the bigger names that could fall to the Cardinals at number five. John didn't at MLB.com had this to say because the consensus says the Cardinals will either choose a top college pitcher or they're going to go with a shortstop. There's a couple of standout short stops.

Starting point is 00:03:55 And I know when we think of drafts, at least I do, I compare it immediately to the NFL. or the NBA draft, where, you know, you think that that person is going to immediately suit up in St. Louis and help the cause. But even though prospects are rising quicker than ever, there's still the long game to think about here. It's more like the NHL where you take a kid and then you hope to see them in a couple of years. Sometimes they fly right up. Sometimes they're so good. There's no use in keeping them down there. But a lot of times it takes a couple of years before you see them make an impact at the Major League.

Starting point is 00:04:30 level. So when you hear shortstop, you think, why would we do that? Mason Wynn is here. J.J. Weatherhold. Also a shortstop is right behind him. Why would you pick another one? Usually it's because short stops are the best athletes on the field. That's usually what it is. And they can be moved around. A guy who knows how to play shortstop and is athletic enough can also play second or third. Or you can even, you know, move them to the outfield at some point. you know, think of what the Padres have done with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, you know, think about that. So when you hear shortstop, don't necessarily think that that's where that person has to play if and when they reach the major league. So keep that in mind. That being said, I would prefer to have a pitcher right now.

Starting point is 00:05:18 I think it's a lot harder to find elite pitching with strikeout swinging this stuff than it is to find and develop a really good hitter. But that's just me. It's what I wanted last year, too, and they got J.J. Well, other hold and I'm not complaining. So here's what Denton says about the Cardinals plans this year. The Cardinals, who will be making just their 12th single digit pick in the drafts history could have their choice of a highly ranked left-handed college pitcher or a high school shortstop with the number five pick.

Starting point is 00:05:45 LSU's Kate Anderson, Florida States, Jamie Arnold, or Tennessee's Liam Doyle, could be there for the taking for the Redbirds if they so choose. Or the club could opt for the potential high ceilings of high school shortstops, Eli Willits or Billy Carlson, Willits, son of former MLB outfielder Reggie Willits, is not yet 18 years old and is the youngest player available in the draft. Now, even if the Cardinals don't choose a high school player with their first pick, they could head that direction with their second round choices. They got number 55 overall or their competitive balance round B selection,

Starting point is 00:06:19 which is at number 72. Southern California Powerhouse Corona High School could have four players picked on the first day, which is pretty incredible. So let's go to MLB Pipelines mock draft because they're the ones that I kind of trust the most with this stuff. And it's very similar to what a lot of the drafts around the Internet are saying right now. Number one overall, most people think it's going to be Kate Anderson, pitching from LSU, who was just an absolute dog.

Starting point is 00:06:48 The Nationals got the number one pick. They just fired their GM. So who knows what kind of turmoil is going on with them. But many believe it will be Kate Anderson or Ethan. Matt Holliday's other son. Number two overall, they've got Liam Doyle, the left-hander from Tennessee, going to the Angels, although I've seen some mock drafts, have him drop as low as like number six overall. So the Cardinals could have a shot at him. At number three, we're going to talk about Doyle in a little bit. At number three, they got high school right-handed pitcher, Seth Hernandez, going to the Mariners. I have not seen him drop out of the top three in any of these mock drafts that I've been looking at. Ethan Holliday. they got going number four to where his dad started to the Colorado Rockies, which would be cool if he fell to the Cardinals, but the odds are not good there.

Starting point is 00:07:36 And that brings us to the Cardinals at number five, where MLB Pipeline and almost everybody has got them selecting high school shortstop, Eli Willits from Fort Cobb, Oklahoma. The chatter I've seen around him that he very well could be the steal of the draft at number five, that some people think potential-wise, he should be number one. But people want pitching and they want guys that can, you know, like we're saying, where they impact their teams now,

Starting point is 00:08:05 which is why these college guys will probably go ahead of him, which would leave Willis falling to the Cardinals. 6 foot 1, 180 pounds, MLVs, 2080 grade scale has him listed with a 60 hit, 45 power, 60 run, 55 arm and field, and has a 60 overall. Like Denton said, he's only said, He's only 17 years old.

Starting point is 00:08:27 He's the youngest prospect in the draft that reclassified himself to be eligible this year. So take that for what it's worth. Switch hitter, which is always nice. You don't see a lot of that anymore. And it's said to be quite a mature hitter for his age with excellent bat to ball skills and consistent line drive ability in the field. Good speed, strong arm, good defensive instincts, total package. And it's said to be a more developed teenage version of Yankee shortstop, Anthony

Starting point is 00:08:55 Volpe, who a lot of people are very, very high on. I know his numbers haven't quite gotten to where they think they'll be, but obviously they've got some love for them at Shortstop in New York. So most experts, including ESPN, the athletic, CBS sports, all have the Cardinals taking bullets at number five. It seems to be the most, like, what do I want to say here? Like, he's the pick for most of the drafts. I would say 85% of them that I've seen that Willits is the guy that they've got the Cardinals selecting.

Starting point is 00:09:30 But also let me remind you that last year hardly anyone had JJ Weatherhole falling to them at number seven. And it happened. And the Cardinals are more than happy about that. So just because this is what they think would happen in these mock drafts doesn't mean it necessarily will be so. But there's certainly a possibility that a lot of people are predicting that that is what's going to happen. So keep that name in the back of your mind. Eli Willett shortstop out of high school, Oklahoma. But let's go through some of the other prospects

Starting point is 00:10:02 because there's other guys that have fallen and people who are thinking the Cardinals could go there as well. So we'll see what they have to say about them coming up next on Locked on Cardinals. Get the supplies you need from the site made for the skilled trade. Supply House, whether you're in plumbing HVAC or electrical work supply house, is the reliable way to order products online. Their easy to use website is packed with helpful resources. and the latest product information to help you get the job done right.

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Starting point is 00:11:46 and excited if he's there at number five would be Jamie Arnold from Florida State. Left-hand a pitcher, he's popped up quite a few times as a guy that might slide. M.O.B. Pipeline has got him as the number four overall prospect. The scouting report says that Arnold made it clear. He'd be a high-end draft prospect of 25 after turning in an outstanding sophomore season with Florida State last spring, finishing third among all D-1 pitchers and strikeouts, trailing only. 2024 first-round fix, Chase Burns, who's already been up with the Reds, and then Hagan Smith. The Golden Spikes Award semifinalists also finished with a sub-3 ERA and an impressive 159 to 26 strikeout to walk ratio while helping the Seminoles reach the national semifinals of the College World Series. He capped things off at four hitless innings and 7Ks for Team USA in an international friendship series against Chinese Taipei over the summer.

Starting point is 00:12:39 Left-hander with a rangy body and a loose, whippy arm. Arnold has seen his stuff tick up since leaving Jesswood High School in Tallahassee. Coming from a lower arm slot in flat approaching on the fastball, which was 8892 in high school, is now sitting at 94 and 95, touches 97 as well, with a ton of life to miss bats. While his slider can be a little wide at times, the 82, 85 mile an hour sweeping breaking ball is a second plus offering that elicited a 41% miss rate in 24.

Starting point is 00:13:11 His change-up is his third pitch and he doesn't need it much, but there's some feel for it. Arnold has shown the ability to fill up the strike zone and limit damage while maintaining his stuff deep into outings with the funky arm slot. His stuff has drawn some comparisons to Chris Sale. It's a pretty good comparison since he's, you know, one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Starting point is 00:13:31 He knows hurt right now. I just won the Cy Young Award for the National League. 21 years old, 6-1-188. So he's not a big guy by any means. And I don't know, when you get into funky deliveries, you know, Cooper Jerpy, who's a prospect for the Cardinals, arm injury right now, you know, that's the kind of stuff you're looking at. Quinn Matthews, I think, has kind of an odd delivery.

Starting point is 00:13:54 It's not as normal and smooth as you would like because you worry about arm injuries. But scouting grades for Arnold here, fastball 60, slider 65, change up 50, control at 55, overall 60. We know that you can never have enough pitching, which is why someone like Arnold is very, very enticing.

Starting point is 00:14:14 Another lefty that might go before the Cardinals pick or, as I mentioned, could slip to them is Liam Doyle from Tennessee. I've seen Doyle go as high as number two overall, but I've seen him drop as low as number eight. in drafts. MLB has him as the eighth best prospect. So he's behind Arnold in the prospect rankings. But here's their report on him and why he might go ahead of him. Doyle was Coastal Carolina's most effective starters of freshman in 2023.

Starting point is 00:14:43 Filled the same role at Mississippi last spring. Average 13.7 strikeouts per nine innings, which would have ranked him 13th in D1 behind four 2023 first rounders. If he hadn't fallen an inning shy of qualifying, the 2025 Southeast Conference. pitcher of the year led D1 in strikeout rate at 15.4 per nine innings after transferring again and headlining Tennessee's rotation vaulting himself into a top five pick consideration. Doyle success centers primarily around his fastball, which sat at 91,94 during a sophomore year.

Starting point is 00:15:16 Now operates in the mid-90s. Peaks at triple digits at 100. It has been the most untouchable heater in college baseball this year coming out of a high release point and exploding at the top of the zone and he topped D1 by finishing 105 strikeouts with the pitch. 82, 85 mile an hour slider has become a solid offering, but they say he does leave it in the middle of the plate too often and also has that problem with his cutter, where it's just going over the plate too much. We've seen that be a problem for a lot of people. But, I mean, you can work on these things and work on how you to get those over the corners a bit more or zip it out over on the outside part of the play.

Starting point is 00:15:57 While he throws his fastball nearly two-thirds of the time, Doyle has four effective pitches after switching to using an upper 80 splitter as his change of, which I love. Despite his dominance this spring, there are concerns about his ability to succeed as a starter at the next level because he has an unorthodox delivery and he constantly throws with maximum intent. That scares you a little bit because of the arm injury issues, that, you know, these guys that are just constantly just, and it's 100.

Starting point is 00:16:25 And eventually the arm is going to say, okay, it's enough. So that's something you worry about. He does provide consistent strikes and has held his stuff deep in the games and throughout the season. 21 years old like Arnold, bigger though, 6-2-220.

Starting point is 00:16:41 Scouting grades, the fast falls is 75 on an 80 grade, which, oh, that's good. Slider 55, cutter 55, splitter 55, control out of 50. Overall, they get them a 55. grade. It depends on what you want here. You know, do you want the power guy or do you want the guy that has better stuff overall? You know, I mean, I see Doyle and if he's not a starter, I see somebody who could be a dominant reliever at some point, which I know you're like, oh, top five pick and you're going to

Starting point is 00:17:11 get a relief pitcher out of it. But you see how important they can be in ball games at the end, at the end of the bullpen. So I don't really knock it all that much. But if the Cardinals don't go with either one of those three guys, if it's not Willits and it's not Arnold and it's not Doyle here, perhaps it's another one of those short stops that gets taken instead. So I'll talk about the top two guys that they could be in play for the Cardinals at number five as well. We'll get to them next coming up on Locked on Cardinals.

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Starting point is 00:19:19 So as much as it would be cool to see Ethan Holiday fall to the Cardinals at number five. It's extremely doubtful that that's going to happen. But if the Cardinals don't go Willits, then they could go with another high school shortstop. Billy Carlson is the guy's name that keeps popping up. He's from California to the one school Corona, the powerhouse in California. That's where he's from. The scattering report says all summer he impressed with his athleticism and bat speed from the right side of the plate. It's more of a line drive approach at present with a good swing, but he has the chance to grow into more impact and average or better power, though not all evaluators were sold on his hit tool.

Starting point is 00:19:59 There's an upbarrow next to his run tool as he's worked to get faster and could be a plus runner in time, even with all of his offensive upside. His glove might be ahead of his bat with some scouts putting him as high as a 70 in the 20 to 80 grade there, 70 on the arm strength and defensive actions at shortstop. At one point, Carlson was thought to be a legitimate two-way player, kind of like our very own Mason win. With a fastball in the mid-90s and a feel for spinning a breaking ball, but it will be his five-tool potential at a premium position. Then we'll get the Tennessee recruit selected in the top half of the first round. That was age at draft time, 19, might

Starting point is 00:20:36 rule out some teams. Listed at 6-1-185, scouting grades give them the hit tool at 50, power 50, run 55, the arms at 65, fielding at 70, overall of 55. There's room to grow there apparently. But if he's the defensive guy is, I'm not taking him at number five. Like, he needs to be better at the other stuff first. I'd rather, I'd rather work with upside hitting and just an okay fielder than the other way around, you know. The last short stuff I want to mention here, this is a college shortstop, though. I have an archa. 21 years old. The size is something that stands out right away, six, five, two, 20. Scout see him as the best college player in the Pacific Northwest and one of the best college hitters in the country,

Starting point is 00:21:23 65-2-20. That's got me drooling, man. That's a big dude who, again, if he doesn't play shortstop in the majors, it sounds like a third baseman to me. You can also move him to a corner outfield spot. Minor wrist surgery cut into his fall with his new school, the right-handed hitter showed he has easy raw power to tap into with more to come, and he's used it in games consistently this spring, routinely burials the ball with good bat speed and a fluid swing, giving him the chance to be an above average hitter with above average power, and he could hit 20 to 25 home runs annually as a big leaguer.

Starting point is 00:21:54 While Arquette is an average runner and played second base in Washington, he showed on the cape that he should have the chops to play shortstop long term with easy action, soft hands, and more than enough arm with carry at every angle across the diamond. College bats with pop at a premium position are always a hot commodity, so Arquette should get plenty of attention in the first round. So those are the five guys that I feel like should be on your radar as far as what the Cardinals are taking. Ethan Holiday again, yeah, would be great at number five. Probably not going to make it there.

Starting point is 00:22:32 Other guys that, you know, like Cana, those guys, they're not going to be there. So these are the five that I think have a really good chance of still being there. And the Cardinals are going to have to make a decision, you know. I would love a pitcher. I really would. But I felt the same way last year, as I mentioned, and the board fell their way, and JJ Weatherhole just went plop right in their laps. And they were like, thank you. And they ran the card up there.

Starting point is 00:22:58 It'll be hard not to pass up on one of these short stops if they are available. But it depends on how which pitchers go in front of that, their slot at number five. Either way, the Cardinals should be able to land someone that's going to not only help improve their farm system tremendously, but hopefully their Major League roster sooner. rather than later. So enjoy the draft tonight. It starts at 6 o'clock Eastern time. So make sure you tune in for that. And obviously when the pick is made,

Starting point is 00:23:25 we're going to be up and running and have all the information on it and let you know what we feel about it and stuff. So make sure you're tuned in and locked in for that later on tonight. Thanks for making Locked on Cardinals. Your first listen every day. If you haven't already, give us a follow on exit, L1 underscore Cardinals at a JD Sports Radio,

Starting point is 00:23:41 TikTok and Instagram and Locked on Cardinals. Like, subscribe on YouTube. You guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason. And we will see you next time on Lockdown Cardinals. Let's get a win today over the Braves, too. My gosh.

Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Who Will The Cardinals Take At #5?

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