Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - COLTS SQUAD SHOW: Can Latu Make The LEAP? | Our Returnee Review Focuses on Latu's Impact in Year 3

Episode Date: June 5, 2026

The Colts need him to be an impact player, but can Laiatu Latu deliver in Year 3? We discuss Latu's potential for a breakout this Fall, what the rest of the middling EDGE room looks like around him, debate whether the Vegas over/under win total for the Colts this season aligns with our expectations, and react to the two big trades across the NFL this week. Find and follow Locked On Colts on your favorite podcast platforms:  🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-colts/  📺YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLdpxJspi1hMh5HL7ExpWOQ  Give the squad a follow on X/Twitter @Schultz975, @JakeArthurNFL, @ZachHicks2, @allenpinkett, @LockedOnColts, and @ColtsOn_SI, as well on TikTok and Instagram!  Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More  🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/lockedoncolts  Everydayer Club  If you never miss an episode, it’s time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join your team’s community: https://lockedonpodcasts.com/everydayerclub Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Square If you’re starting a business, or running one that deserves better tools, Square helps you sell, manage, and grow without slowing down. Right now, you can get up to $200 off Square hardware at https://square.com/go/LockedOnNFL. FanDuel Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel.Right now new customers can bet just five dollars and get one-hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets if your first bet wins. Visit https://FANDUEL.COMto get started — Play Your Game. Indeed Listeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast. Betterhelp This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp.Sign up and get 10% off at http://BetterHelp.com/LOCKEDON. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, in The Colts Squad Show, he's arguably the most important player to the Colt success in 26, but we're not talking about the quarterback. Yes, I'm Zach Hicks, and we have a lot to talk about tonight. I'm Jake Arthur, and hopefully the Colts can hit the lot to re this year. And I'm Alan Pinkett, former Euler. Lots of guys in that edge room, but I think there's still room for one more. We'll discuss. Colts Nation, rise up. It's the Colts Squad. everything Indianapolis Colts every week. Covering all the big hits and game-changing plays from the Circle City,

the way only the Locked-on podcast network can. It's time to squad up. The Colt Squad Joe starts now. Welcome to the Colts Squad Show. I'm Derek Shultz, longtime any sports talker and columnist for the Indianapolis. This is Jarl. I'm joined by a nor-name legend and longtime NFL running back Alan Pinkett, along with Locked on Colts Daily host, Jake Arthur,

and Zach Hicks, your first listening. every day. Fully squat it up tonight, and we are bringing back our returny reviews, and we'll focus on a guy who is hugely, hugely important. Whether you have them number one, number two, number three, it doesn't really matter. He's somewhere near the top of the list for the cult success this year, and you probably figured it out through Jake's really bad joke there. Lato is going to be our returny review tonight. So we'll talk about the soon-to-be third-year edge rusher. God, how has it already been that long that Laiatu-Latu has been with the Colts. And, you know, what we think so far, he's been somewhat of a polarizing figure

among, you know, the Colts interwebs, if you will. But we'll talk about lots and try to be rational and like we always are, right? And really smart and handsome, that's a given. We'll talk about that in segment number one. Segment two, what the rest of that edge room looks like. I know we're not feeling great about it. I don't think anybody is. I don't know. Maybe Chris Bauer is. In segment Number three, we'll talk about the Colts over under a win total, whether you agree, whether you disagree. It's always kind of an interesting talking point this time of year when we're projecting out wins and losses for the team when we talk about the doldrums of the summer, if you will. And then reacting to this week's big trades, man, it was a huge news cycle week this week, which is rare for June. And could the Colts make a deal?

I know Alan sort of alluded to that, and he's remained in that camp about them adding another body, particularly at edge, which is going to be our topic tonight. So we'll round out the show with that coming up in segment number four. But guys, let's start with Latu Latu, who has been a certainly a good player, a productive player, maybe not to the level of good and maybe not to the level of productive that people want for a guy that was the first defensive player taken off the board in his draft class. But I think I am right in saying, Zach, while we disagree in a lot of ways on where Latu is or where he's going to go, depending on who you talk to and in Colts fan nation, I think we all agree that he is absolutely crucial to the cult success this year.

Him, you know, maybe not becoming like an all pro type, but certainly taking that next step to be becoming this sort of guy that keeps opposing offenses up at night. Yeah, I think as of right now, he's firmly in that like plus starter type range as an NFL player. Like he's a fine run defender. I think overall like an above average pass rusher,

not someone who like you said, like keeps you up at night game planning. but someone you have to be aware of for sure. And I think that he's on a good trajectory right now. He has to continue that trajectory going forward, right? After year one, it was like, okay, this is an adequate rookie season. Maybe not for like the 15th overall pick, but overall, like a fine rookie season. Year two, we saw the jump up eight and a half sacks last year, plus the three interceptions.

It seemed like he fit really well into Luana Rumo's scheme. But I think we just need to see that one more jump, right? Can he like consistently beat offensive tackles? Can he be a consistent force player as a pass rusher in finish in the backfield? That's going to be the big thing because the pass rush win rate was really good last year. The pressure percentage was pretty solid last year. But can he get those sacks into like that 12, 13, 14 ran? I know that's a big expectation, but he was taken in the top 15, right?

You have to have big expectations for these guys. So he's certainly far from like bus category, right? because he's an above average player, in my opinion. And I think, you know, he could still settle in around this, like, eight and a half to ten sack guy and still be a fine football. But you certainly want more out of a guy that was taken 15th overall. And if you're the Colts, I mean, you're looking at this edge rusher room, which we're going to talk about after this segment,

it kind of relies on layout to Lothu being that star, right? Being that guy who can be a pro bowler, who can be a fringe all pro player, because without him, your next best pass rusher, is DeForest Buckner with a banged-up neck. And we just don't know what we're going to get out of him next year. After that, it's Atatamiwa Adaboray is your next best pass rusher with a career high five sacks last year. So, like, it really hinges on lot to being that guy.

Louana Rumo can scheme up pressure all he wants. But if you don't have, like, that force multiplier off the edge, then you're just going to be left trying to scheme up pressure all the time and getting caught with your pants down trying to blitz non-sides. right and having teams have these hot routes and these ability to beat you for big plays. So I think they need that guy who can just consistently win off the edge. Latu has shown to be a guy who can win when he has an advantageous matchup. Like he can beat backup offensive tackles cleanly.

He can beat tight ends pretty cleanly. He can be an unblocked guy in finished plays. But can he beat starting or above average level tackle on a consistent basis? That's the next step for him. So as of right now, we've seen some good growth from him. but year three, it's make or break in a sense where it's like, make a break, is he going to be a star? Like, is he that star level player for the Colts?

If it doesn't happen this year, the Colts probably aren't a playoff team because he is that vital to their team success this season. Yeah, I do agree with the polarizing part of this all, Derek, because on one hand, he was the first defensive player taken in that draft, right? So people are expecting him to hit the ground running and, you know, have a similar impact early in his career as like a T.J. Watt or, you know, Micah Parsons, like these elite level pass rushers. And, you know, he wasn't as productive as he probably should have been early. And he wasn't a starter either. But at the same time, it's also kind of the Colts issue for not having more than just him.

you know, Latsu got dropped into a situation with Quiti Pai, essentially, who was just allowed to walk out the door because he never really lived up to being a premier pass rusher. So pretty early in his career, Latu was kind of forced into being the top dog pass rusher, which he wasn't ready to do. Now, with that said, I do think you've seen true progress from year one to year two. You go from four sacks to eight and a half in this last year. year, you know, if you look at the metrics, he's top 20 in pressures, among edge rushers. He's top 20 in pressures, pressure percentage, pass rush win rate.

Like, he's a productive above average player. Everyone's just still kind of waiting for him to be that guy that like gets 15 sacks. Because I think people are beyond wanting the 10 sack thing. Like they want the guy that goes out there and is an all pro consideration, which she just hasn't been ready to do quite yet. But I think if there's someone else on the line that is able to take some pressure off Latu, take some attention off LATU, that would be great. Because I do think he's going to take some, his own natural progress forward.

The guy is a tireless worker and he's kind of taken another step and working on his frame and his strength. He's a guy who always works on being agile and twitchy, but he's really needed to add some strength to like some core strength and just some upper body strength to go with all the pass rush moves that he has. And he knows that about himself. He's very self-aware. So he has worked on that.

So I think we can expect to see a jump from him. But it's also on the Colts to offer more than just him so that teams don't have just one guy to key in on. I do think part of it is DeForest Buckner has spent what three different stents on I over the last two years. And this whole time, we're supposed to be getting this great combo pass rush with the Forrest Buckner inside lined up next to Laotu Latsu on the outside. And offenses won't be able to deal with it, yada yada, yada.

But, I mean, Buckner's been out more often than he's been in there. So it's really just been Laatu, Latu, and friends kind of having to be relied upon to produce this pass rush. So I do think on his own, he will take a step forward this year. but there will be a cap to it depending on how well everybody else does around him. Well, good evening. I've got actually high hopes for Laatu going into his third year. And I actually look at my own experience.

You see, everybody doesn't become a pro overnight, rarely in the first season, in the rookie season. There's some growth that has to come with getting used to the pro game. And, you know, in my situation, I know that I didn't feel like a true pro until my third year, where I actually figured some stuff out. And your rookie year, you know, I'm willing to throw away, but I was able to do something. Second year, there's a little bit of. growth. By the time I got to the third year, the game slowed down. I sort of see LATU coming into form

in his third year. And I think definitely his second year was better than his rookie year. When you look at the eight and a half sacks, and yes, there is a need for the Colts to have a dominant pass rusher. But I also look at, you know, who, was the best pass rusher last year. Miles Garrett had 23 sacks. What was the Brown's record? Five and 12. So I know we emphasize that having a pass rusher is so important.

But there are so many different facets of the game that you need to pay attention to. And you don't want to put all your eggs in one bag. basket and say, oh, it's got to be the pass rusher. You know, I think there are a number of areas that need to be cleaned up with the Colts both offensively and defensively. But I will say this, it helps when you have that dominant pass rusher on the outside. I think back to my time playing, and the one guy who just scared everybody was Bruce Smith. I mean, he just totally changed your offensive game plan. And it just worried the hell out

of offensive coaches because, you know, their thought was if we can't drop back and throw, what the hell are we going to do? You know, we can't just run the ball. We can't run away from him. He'll run us down from the back. We can't run at him because he'll just, you know, bulldog somebody on the line of scrimmage. You know, so it causes a great deal of angst and concern among offensive coaches. And sometimes you've won the battle mentally already when you have that guy on the edge that's going to cause you to go through all kind of palpitations and machinations trying to figure out how we're going to defend this one guy. Having said all that, I look for improved numbers. from Latu. There's just something about that third year, you know, when you are given the

opportunity to grow, that third year, you know, you just sort of feel like you belong finally. You've had a chance to go through your division a couple of times so you know something about the matchups you're going to have. You've gotten used to certain guys and have hopefully by your third year learned how to study film to know, you know, when you play the Titans twice a year, you're going to be going against that one guy twice, and you've seen him, you know, what, how many times, four times so far, so you should have him figure out and have some moves in mind that you're going to use on him. I think that's going to, the fact that it's his third year and playing in this division

will work to his advantage. But the Colts still have some cap room and they could do something else to ensure that that edge spot is totally solidified. Yeah, and I just want to go back to what Jake said about. Law, too, the biggest thing for him is he has to get stronger. He just has to get stronger. Eventually, he's got to realize he's not a finesse rusher. Like, he's just too big.

He's too big and he doesn't have the, you, know, the bend and the Twitch to be a finesse rusher. He always has the good hands. And I think he has enough bend in Twitch to be, like, able to win on the outside if he has more of a power profile. But the biggest thing for him, the thing that'll make or break his career, and if he's going to be just an above average to, you know, or a great pass rusher, he has to be able to win through the chest of offensive tackles.

If he can't win through the chest of these guys, he's going to just forever sit in this eight sack rate, which is a good player. but it's certainly not going to get you that, you know, that 100-something million-dollar contract, right? It's not going to get you the T.J. Watt money or the Miles Garrett money. Like you have to win through the chest of offensive tackles. He hasn't shown that yet. And it's why he is kind of setting at this eight and a half,

like where he is currently. If he comes into this next year a lot stronger and shows the ability to win through the chest, I think he can be a pro bowl to an all pro-level guy. It's just he has to show that this year. Yeah, it's the whole problem with really the Christmas. Bauer and this is not Liatu Latu's fault, which is why I feel for him and the discourse about him. Like, it's not his fault that Toray and Banagou and Pay and all these other guys that they

put a substantial draft capital in did not end up working out. But the Colts core problem over the last 10 years is that plus starter has been about as good as they've gotten at a lot of these key positions. And they need more than that. They need more than plus starter at an impact position like edge, like wide receiver, and some of these positions that they've just, you know, they've drafted some good players. They've drafted some okay ones.

They haven't drafted some any great ones or very few great ones. But when we come back here on the locked on cold squad show, we'll talk about that edge room. I know it's given some of us some indigestion. I look forward of what Latu has around him, but we'll discuss when we come back next. This portion of the Colt Squad Show brought you by our friends at Better Help. Better Help.

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match doesn't feel right, you can switch at any time. You don't have to say yes to everything this summer. Find support and therapy. Sign up to get 10% off at BetterHelp.com slash locked on. That's better at H-E-L-P dot com slash locked on. And we're back, Locked on Colts Squad show. Appreciate you being here today on this Thursday. alongside former NFL or Alan Pinkin, Zach Hicks, Locked on Colts. I'm Derek Schultz. Don't forget about our Everydayer Club. We mentioned it on every show because it is the most awesome,

coolest, handsomest club around. And you can get ad-free episodes and access to a group chat with Jake, Zach, and other listeners of Locked On Colts. All you have to do is tap the link in the show notes or go to Lockedonpodcast.com slash Everydayer Club. So, guys, you know, as we know, this Edge Room has changed over dramatically, Zach. I don't know that it got better per se, but it's different for sure with a lot of new names in here. I think the expectation with where we sit today is that Arden Key is probably going to be that second guy.

And I say with where we sit today, so Alan, I'll let you get to the caveat, right, about potentially adding another body. But how do you feel about the rest of this group overall, not only some of the free agency ads, but also the day three players that we've talked about over the last couple of weeks that the Colts brought in here? really the entire room outside of Latu changed over. Yeah, I think it's an adequate room, which I don't know how many people are getting excited about adequate. But I mean, yeah, I don't think it's like a terrible room by any means because like we talked about, Layoutu Latu, I view as an above average NFL player at this point, certainly a good playmaker. And he fits this scheme very well, right?

He had the three interceptions last year. So we saw how well he fits what Lou Anurmo wants out of his edge rusher. And then I think guys like Art like Arden Key is a fine player to have. Like I think he's one of the better third, third edge rushers in the league. He's shown it the last couple years that when he's been in this like third edge rusher role, he's been a productive and solid player. A bit of a step back from last year for sure. In last year that is.

But, you know, I think he's fine as like a rotational guy behind them. So much of it just depends on what they're going to get out of Jalen to him low. Like he didn't really give them much on the field last season. And it was very below average at best, right, that you got out of him. Like, it just wasn't a very effective player for this team. Zero sacks and over 200 snaps played, had some injuries. It just wasn't what you want out of a guy who was a little, you know, was like a top 50 pick for the team last year.

So they needed more out of him. They didn't get it. And now they're expecting him to step in and replace a player like Quitty Pay this year, which look, quidip, we all soured on him by the end of his time. with the Colts, right? Like it wasn't perfect, obviously, but he was still a guy who could finish sacks in the backfield, play some decent run defense. And, you know, at the end of the year, it could be unspectacular, but he'd come away with

six, seven sacks, whatever it was, right? Five, six, seven sacks and call it a day right there. But when it comes to Tumoloa, that's still a big jump for him to make, right? For him to jump up and even be that level of player. And that was a player that we all ran out of town after this year, right? So you kind of need that jump from the second year. player to even be a player that we want to replace by the end of the season. So we'll see what Tumalo can bring.

I'm not here to write the guy off. It's just expecting him to jump up and beat Quitty Pay. It's kind of a big leap, you know, and I don't even think that solves everything up front for the Colts. So there are serious questions when it comes to the edge rusher group for the Colts. I like Arden Key and Michael Clemens if they're replacements for Abucom and Taekwon Lewis, but they didn't bring in anyone to replace quidipay. So it kind of moves the importance of these guys up a little bit. And it makes me question the signings a little bit because of that.

So I still hope that there is another move out there, whether it's a Jadavian clownian free agency, whether it's, and we'll talk about this to close out the show. But Alex Highsmith over in Pittsburgh could potentially be dealt, right? Because his backup just got extended for $10 plus million per year. And I'm sure Alan knows this. If your backup's getting a big extension. It's kind of a slap in the face, right? When your direct backup is getting a big extension, it's like, oh, okay, like maybe I'm not in the long-term plan. A lot of bells start ringing. Right, right. So there's still a chance for the Colts to upgrade here. I don't know how urgent they feel it, but I know for me personally, as someone on the outside looking in, I think there should be

some urgency when it comes to the edge rusher position because they clearly weren't okay with starting two and a low out going into this year because they pursue Trey Hendrickson so hard this offseason. So just to think that they're going to sit on their hands and be like, oh, all right, let's see what Tumolo looks like. I struggle with that. I do struggle with that. So hopefully they can, you know, make that big swing for a High Smith.

Like if High Smith goes for a similar package that Grinard went for this off season like two third round picks, I think the Colts should be all over that. Or again, Jadavian Clowney just raises the floor still and gives you even more than what pay gave you last year. and you could say you improve the edge rush room, even if it's not looking great long term. So I think there are still avenues to make this better, but it's certainly a little bit concerning for sure. Well, I think the edge room is full of good players, but you just don't have any great players. And the way you win in the NFL is when you have great players at key positions.

Edge is one of those. And I truly believe that the success of the edge position really hinges on the play of JTT. I think, you know, when I saw him play at Ohio State, to me, he was a big difference maker. And he was, although Ohio State was loaded with NFL talent, he still stood out as a player that, you know, really was, to me, mature beyond his year. So I think that, you know, a lot of people were disappointed with his rookie season. I'm hoping that he was disappointed. Sometimes you got to have a sorry year, you know, to wake your ass up and go back to playing the way that you're supposed to play and you just have to, you know, slap yourself in the face.

And remember, it's just football and you're pretty good at this. And maybe it's, you know, keep it simple. I don't know if the Anorumo scheme is one that didn't fit his skill set. But I'm thinking that, you know, with the skills he has, he can be a pretty dominant player, a heady player. And so I think that, you know, we'll get good progress from, lot too, and I think you'll get high energy out of Arden Key, but it'll be like four or five times a game. You'll get him in there and, you know, he'll blow some stuff up. But I kind of think, and I appreciate the Highsmith information, I still think there's a possibility

of Max Crosby could still be moved. And his number happens to match the number that the Colts have left to spend. So, but I think in that case, the Colts would probably have to give up something. And now you're looking at, well, what can we give up? That would make sense. But. They don't have the first round pick, unfortunately. right

Rosby. So unless the Ravens really tanked his, unless they really tanked his draft or his draft pick trade value by saying like, oh, he's just really hurt. I don't know if the Colts have the draft picks for it. But, I mean, it would be great theoretically for sure.

I would love it. Yeah. Can you find, I mean, to be more realistic, right, it's more like, can you find an upgrade to Arden Key?

You know, can you find somewhere in between a Crosby and a key that can be more of a edge a second edge than Arden Key, who I agree is fine as a third guy. I just don't love him as a second guy. Yeah, the way I view it is it's kind of, we've talked about a lot of positions like this recently. So I guess it's just a way about football in general, but it's like the tight end room before Tyler Warren entered the picture, right, where it's like, I like Molycock. I think he's a good player. He's not a starting caliber player kind of like Arden Key, right? I think Arden Key is a good rotational edge rusher, a good guy to

have behind. And then Michael Clemens, kind of like Drew Ogletree, gives you some value as a third guy, right, as a bottom of the roster type guy. But they can't be your number one and number two on that side of the field at edge rusher, right? Just like Moe-A-Cox can't start at tight end. So these guys are as good as they are when they're defined by that starter. So again, if you get a guy like a Judavian Clowny who was productive last year. There's no long-term, like, vitality with it. There's no long-term plan with him, right? You're going to get one year out of Judavian Clowny, but that could be better than Quitty Pay, right, than Quitty Pay was last year. That could be better than Arden Key starting or Jalen to a Moloz starting. So I think that that can be one way to

just upgrade what you have in the room. But again, these guys are going to be defined by their roles on the team. Arden Key has your third rusher. is a good, valuable player to have. Arden Key as your second rusher is probably not going to live up to expectations. And that's just the nature of football. So I certainly think that they need to add, I just don't know at this point in the offseason if we're going to see additions, but they still have a lot of like cap space.

Like I'm wondering what they're going to do with this cap space because the Colts have like traditionally under Chris Ballard have always spent all their cap space, whether it's extensions, whether it's, you know, whatever it is. They've always spent up to the cap space. So I still think they need to do something with this cap space. They have it for a reason. Just go get your Davian Clowny and be better than what you were last year.

It's still not amazing, but it's still better than what you were last year. And I would take that. And, you know, I think that edge by committee can work. I think you'll get good played because, you know, these guys will create a rotation where someone that is fresh is always in the game. But I would rather have that one guy, that one stud. And I sort of look at it like the Quentin Nelson effect. You know, having Quentin Nelson on the offensive line

and having to be on the practice field with him and in the meeting room, you can't help but learn how to become a better offensive lineman. from the stuff that he does. So bringing in a world-class, you know, for lack of a better term, a world-class edge rusher, can only help a guy like a George Gumbs who,

I mean, this year is going to be too soon for him to really flash or show anything. But if you have the opportunity to watch how a true pro prepares how he practices, you know, get into his mind to see how he thinks on each down and distance and situational type things. It'll help the rest of the group out. And I still believe that even though this room is adequate, there's still a move to be made to get one more stud in here. Yeah. And again, I'm still skeptical that it's going to be a stud. I think it will be somebody. I think it may even take after roster cut downs and things like that. But I think there

are maybe a couple of positions that the Colts will be looking around for some help, as you should. I mean, you know, all NFL teams should be always trying to improve. And I think the Colts probably look at that room and think, yeah, we can get a lot better there. At least I hope that They think that. When we come back, we come back on the show. Our friends in Vegas aren't feeling great about the Colts chances this year.

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We're back on the Locked on Colts Squad Show. Thanks so much for making us a part of your Thursday alongside Zach Hicks, daily co-host, Locked on Colts, Alan Pinkett as well, former NFL. I'm Derek Schultz. I heard that Jake had a Benny, Benny woke up. So that's why Jake was on the first time when the show. He did not leave us. He loves doing the show.

We hope to have Jake back coming up later on in the program today. But guys, let's get into from the edge room into, cult season outlook, which we've been touching on sort of here and there over the past couple of weeks and months, the over under wind totals from some of the sports books were released. And I always find this interesting.

This is not an exact science. And a lot of times, you know, it comes with the caveat that they're trying to get money to go a certain way, right? But these guys in Vegas, they're usually pretty smart about projecting out. There's a reason why the house wins a lot more

than they lose. But that's said seven and a half for the over under wind total. Considering that the Colts have the fourth easiest schedule, at least on paper, and it looks like Daniel Jones is really progressing here, Zach, and he's going to be ready for week one. I don't know. Like, I'm always not trying to be Colts Homer guy. I saw seven and a half and I thought,

that seems low to me. Right. It should always be eight. Always be eight with the Colts. It has to always be eight, right? Like, that's the number they should have settled on. Honestly, again, gun to my head, I think they probably win eight to nine this year. But there is an avenue that's very realistic that they fall under seven because they're so reliant on their quarterback who's coming off in Achilles injury.

They're so reliant on two of their top, what, three or four defenders are older players coming off major injuries in Mooney Ward and DeForest Buckner, right? If we don't get full seasons out of them where we get a drive. rob off and play from them, then we will see a pretty rough season from the Colts. So, yeah, I think that they probably get to eight to nine wins. That's where I would have them at. I could see an avenue where they get up to 10 and make the playoffs. But this is why I'm not a betting man. I could never make up my decision.

I can look at that and be like, talk myself into eight wins. But again, it's so realistic to see the Daniel Jones injury. playing a factor in them not getting to seven wins. So easy to see Buckner and Mooney Ward's recent injury history. And like I always say, as you get older, you don't get healthier in this league, right? The more the injuries stack up, the more the injuries seem to show after that. So, yeah, I think that they're going to be a fine team. They'll be what they always are around league average.

I just, I could certainly see them falling off because of those injuries there. but I want to be at least a little optimistic. I think they certainly beat seven and a half this year because one thing I always look at when it comes to like the Vegas spread and stuff is if you look at the last season, especially when the quarterback was healthy, right? It's hard to look at a season when the quarterback's not healthy because obviously every team loses it. Like the Chiefs went from a league average team.

Then Mahomes was out and then they were the worst team in football the last couple games. Like the worst team in football with Gardner Minchu and whoever they were throwing out there. right? It's just the nature of the quarterback position. But when the Colts were healthy last year at quarterback, they were either killing bad teams or they were within one score against good teams, right? Typically to me, that says that a team is probably going to be consistent with their record from a year prior or if not better, right? Because one score games are just complete coin flips in the NFL. That's what history says. That's what betting people look at is like, hey, one score games are

traditionally just coin flips. So if a team is, bad in one score games one year. Typically the next year, they're a lot better. We actually look at the chiefs as a great example of this, right? Last year, before Mahomes' injury, they were on the wrong side of a lot of one score games. The year before, they were like 10 and 0 in them, 11 and 0 in all them because the one score games usually flips. So even before Jones got hurt, pretty much all their games with like quality teams outside of the Chargers, who they beat by two scores, or one score games. And they ended up being like on the wrong side of one score games a lot last year. We look, Houston.

in late in the year when Jones was healthy. You look at a couple other games in there. Like the Rams game was a one score game. So I do think that, you know, they'll be like a nine-win team probably. We'll see if that's good enough to make the playoffs. But yeah, all this is to say, I could see them going anywhere with this.

But generally, I don't think there's anything on paper that tells me they should be some horrible football team because you look at those things like the one-score games last year. You look at the bad injury luck in a lot of ways last year. and they were still a league average team. I think they'll be around league average again this year. Well, you always want to be concerned about health, but you can't gamble based on health.

And I say take the over. I think that when I first looked at the schedule, not knowing much, I said 11 and 6. I look at it still and say 11 and 6. This is a team that's going to be an offensive juggernaut. I mean, they're going to be a team that can put up, you know, points as good as anybody in the league as long as they can keep people healthy. And I think that you can't be dismayed about how they start. In fact, I would be encouraged if after the first four games, they're two and two.

I would still wouldn't feel bad if they're one and three after the first four games. But usually it takes about four games for you to figure out. okay, what kind of team are we? Are we a dink and dunk? Are we a team that's going to, you know, stretch the field? It takes about four games for you to figure out your personality. And they've got some formidable opponents that play good defense to help them figure out where they're going to be. I think if they can win a couple of those, watch out for them after that fourth game.

you know, because they've got the weapons on offense. And let's also look at the fact that Daniel Jones second year in the system, you know, he's going to be a lot sharper, a lot quicker with a lot of his reads than he was in year one. Although I do know that there are some defenses that they were squatting on some of those routes later in the season. Couldn't really get a lot of those dinks and dunks because the defense sort of figured out, okay, he's going to run like a four-yard route. I don't have to sit back here at six yards.

But I think Coach Steichen is very innovative when it comes to spreading out the field and getting the ball in the hands of playmakers. And I think the Colts just have enough playmakers that they're going to score a lot of points. and I say betty over on that one. And I'll also, the last thing I'll say, players, they don't care about what the sports book says.

You know, sometimes you can say something to a player that will motivate them to prove you wrong. The last thing a player cares about is somebody speculating on how many wins or losses they're going to have, you know, As a player, you just got to take them one at a time. Each one is a Super Bowl. Do whatever you can to win that thing. And hopefully, at the end of the year, you won more than your loss.

But if you really focus on each one as its own entity and take care of your business, usually you get a good result. Well, some of them care, right, Alan? I mean, Isaiah Rogers maybe cared a little bit too much. Shaquille Leonard absolutely cared about all of that stuff. In a different way that I say wrong. In a different way than what your facetious way that you're making a joke there. But, you know, I was actually curious because we have a little bit of time here,

Alid, with this segment, where do you fall on the, because, you know, we see this in the NFL and NFL culture and with coaches do this too, the cheesy way to motivate guys, right? Where it's like, so Stephen A. Smith says that we're not worth a darn and they frame it in the locker room, right? Who cares what Stephen A. Smith? Who cares what the locked on, you know, the squad show says if we say that they're going to be bad or good, right? But you see coaches frame this stuff sometimes and like tell players like this is what they think of you. I mean, maybe that didn't resonate with you, Alan, but does that resonate in locker rooms kind of?

Just that like feed off that negative energy, I guess, and prove them wrong? Or do you think these guys are like, they're pros? You know, they have their own ways to motivate themselves. Well, I think that, you know, guys do know how to motivate themselves. but, I mean, hell, even Michael Jordan look for anything to give them that extra edge. Everybody's looking for what is it that can put it over the top for me? That really makes me like I'd rather die than lose this game, you know, type of mentality. Most guys are pros, but they're not, they're still human beings,

where sometimes you say something about them. it can get under their skin and, you know, don't put them in a situation where they are in a position to say, I told you so. Most guys experienced all that trying to hype you in high school and college. And they understand, you know, the business side of this, you know, where, you know, going out and winning games is a new. another way to get generational wealth. So let's go ahead and win more than we lose because that offseason can be pretty lucrative also. I wouldn't say that they're so mind numb that they don't pay attention to anything anybody says.

They can still get pretty peeved at stuff they hear. But I don't think as pros, they internalize it as much. They can use it to be motivated, but they're not going to, you know, be a Tasmanian devil out there because somebody said that they suck. Yeah, I mean, again, there are some players that certainly do act that way, right? I mean, Keel Leonard was the right kind of crazy when he was here, right? Whereas any time, if you've been thought a negative thought about him, he had it framed in his room. Because that was just the way he motivated himself. But I was always curious about that, especially with like this Colts team where,

what the last three seasons there I think they're what one and eleven against the jaguars and the texans right I that's real bulletin board material right there yeah these guys own you like go show them they don't and maybe that's something you don't want to touch on as a coach because you don't want it to get in their head that they get owned there but like things like the jacksonville curse things like how they've played against those two teams in recent memory like you want to see some pride i think there right you want to see some some extra motivation for those games for sure oh yeah and were plenty of places when I played that we lost more than we won. But I can't say that we did anything different when we won a playoff game in Cleveland after losing there in the regular

season or going to Cincinnati in winning for a change or my last year where we actually went to Pittsburgh and won after getting my butt kicked there plenty of times. each game is its own entity. And, you know, it comes down to have a good game plan, reduce the number of turnovers, and don't get hurt, and stay in the game and anything can happen near the end. Yeah, Alan's getting ready for his coaching career right now with what he's saying right there. It sounds like a true coach.

To tie a bow on the over-under conversation, just to put in perspective, the other teams at seven and a half, along with the Colts for win total. Panthers, Saints, Giants, commanders. I mean, there's a playoff team in there, right? Right, Carolina. Okay, yeah. Technically, yes, that is true.

Houston, nine and a half, Jacksonville, eight and a half, Tennessee, six and a half. So at least you could say that the AFC South is pretty well-rounded in that category. But put a pin on that. You don't have to put it on your bulletin board at home. I don't know if people still have bulletin boards, but just something to consider this year. seven and a half of the Colts and we'll see how they ultimately end up doing. We come back on the show.

There were some really huge seismic level trades in the NFL this week. We'll react to those and are the Colts going to make theirs? We'll talk about it when we return for a final time. We're back. Locked on Colts. Thanks so much for joining us. So big news week this week for the NFL, which is rare for the first week in June, a couple of big trades, including the Browns dealing Miles Garrett to the Rams.

So the Rams just doing what they do with their picks, I guess. They get Jared Verse. They get a 2027 first. They get a second. They get a future third as well. And then A.J. Brown going to the Patriots in exchange for a first in 2028 and a 27 fifth round selection as well. Look, the Browns aren't super relevant to the cults.

Neither are the Rams or the Eagles, I guess. The Patriots are, at least considering that that's still the main rival. But that said, these moves sort of loosely connected. I feel like as a Colts fan, I think if you just follow the NFL news cycle, which we all do, I think you thought, well, raise some eyebrows a little bit. But, Zach, before we get into potentially what the Colts could do between now and the start of the season, what were your reaction at those two trades? Anything stand out to you about either of those moves for any of those four teams involved?

I mean, the A.J. Brown one was the most telegraph move in the history of sports, right? Like we have been hearing the inklings about this for months. I mean, at this point, you would have thought that he was already on the Patriots, by the way that he was talked about in media circles, which is always fascinating, right? Because, like, it's an open bidding, right? Like, so if you were waiting this long to finish the trade, right? Like, other teams should just jump in and try to make some other offers, right? Like, I know that Miles Garrett had like a no trade clause actually effectively in his contract,

but AJ Brown didn't, right? So if you're another team interested and you're hearing Ian Rappaport coming out here saying every single day, like, oh, he's going to move for a 2028 first round pick. If you're another team, just jump in and try to make an offer, right? Because it's been out there. But yeah, like I think that these were certainly moves that, I mean, the AJ Brown one was telegraphed for a while, where on the other end, the Miles Garrett one was a complete surprise, right? It kind of came out of nowhere within 24 hours of the June 1 deadline. and then all of a sudden it kind of materialized like that. Kind of a crazy trade, that one for sure.

Like you rarely see, I mean, this is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, one of the best past rushers to ever play the game. What broke the record last year, right? Was the defense player the year yet again last year? Yeah, I think that's a rough, that's a tough trade to make, man. I don't think, at the end of the day, I just don't know if you can ever, like, even where your organization is, right? Like, they're not going to be competitive the next couple of years.

We understand. but like that's the best one of the best players of an era right there you're trading and like Jared versus I think is a solid player as well like very solid player like he's certainly like he's above average in a way that's different than laatu lot too like he's a pro bowl level player I don't know if you'll ever really break out and be like a consistent all pro player because unlike lot too he's like all power profile and not really much else whereas latu is like no power profile and everything else. So I think they both have kind of their warts there. But yeah, getting verse and getting one first round pick for what, the best player of an era, the best defensive player of an

era, the best non-quarterback in football, that's a lot, man. That's not a lot, man, like for what it is. So I just don't know if I would ever, I don't think I could ever be the guy who trade away the best defensive player of an era for sure. I just don't, regardless of where, I mean, He's just coming off one of the best seasons ever, right? We've got to think about this, right? He broke the sack record on an awful team. They're not throwing the ball in the second half against you, right? Because they're winning, right?

Imagine if they were a good team, how many sacks he would have got last year. It could have broke 30. We could have got the 35 last year if they were a good team because of how well he was playing. So that one was absurd to me. I just don't understand that. But the AJ Brown one doesn't really move the needle much for me. I think Brown, trading for a guy. like at receiver who they traditionally,

you start to see a regression in their 30s. He's about to hit that regression age. And he needs a third contract. I hate giving receivers third contracts. I think that he'll be fine for a good two more years for them. But we'll see ultimately where that ends up taking them. But yeah, the Rams, I mean, getting Garrett, getting what they have on offense still with Stafford and Puka and Adams,

Kairn Williams, a good offensive line. that's a scary team right there you're adding a super super like we're not talking about just adding one of the best players but like the best player in the sport on that side of the football the best non-quarterback in football you're adding him to that team so uh that is a force multiplier multiplier multiplier right like on your team uh so i mean again the browns are probably a winless team last year without him he's that good of a player so um yeah i think that's a crazy trade from the browns but it's kind of what we come to expect out of the Browns at this point. I think the biggest compliment you can give Miles Garrett is how often do you see

a quarterback hungry franchise like that doesn't take one at number one. And then everybody looks at home's goes in that draft, right? And everybody looks back in that draft. It's like, oh, yeah, well, of course you take Garrett one. You know what I mean? Like that's how good he's been because he's been, as you said, like one of the best players of a generation. And I am, you know, say what you want about Miles Garrett,

but like the whole situation in Cleveland and not being able to win now going to the Rams, who's been a really good franchise and a contending franchise, a Super Bowl winning franchise. I'm interested, Alan, to see what that turns into for him and maybe could change some of the narrative around his career, because we do this less in the NFL than in like the NBA and some these other sports, but certainly, you know, winning big. He's already shown the individual success, but once you get the team success to come with it, that's when, you know, your name raises to a whole other echelon, if you will. Well, I sort of look at it similar to when. they brought Vaughn Miller to the team.

And guess where the Super Bowl is going to be this year? Yeah, isn't it? Isn't it in the Rams stadium this year? Yeah, so it's an opportunity for the Rams to be at home for the biggest game of the year. And so to me, it's the Rams putting all their chips in. But the other thing, though, I like about the Rams is, you know, while all these other teams are interested in having more use, and getting young. We need to get younger and faster. Some teams value veterans. I remember Steve

Berline, who played 17 years in the NFL. He told me that he really enjoyed his time with the Broncos because the Broncos know how to treat veterans. There are some organizations that just know that you're better off with grown-ass men who are still hungry to win. and maybe have a little bit more upstairs instead of, you know, being economically feasible and watching the books. And, you know, I just need to get, you know, the best $150,000 player I can get. Of course, you know, that might be what most of these guys make a week now is $150,000. But to me, it's a classic Rams move that they want to throw it all in this year

and win it at their home at their home stadium. The one that puzzles me a little bit is the AJ Brown. I know that it has been telegraphed. But, I mean, all the talent in the world, AJ Brown has. But there was that personality clash between, you know, AJ and what's the Eagles quarterback, Hurts? Yeah, Jalen Hurts.

Now, Hurts, fortunately, was a strong personality. So he wasn't going to give a damn what AJ said. AJ could act a fool all he wanted to. And it wasn't going to affect hurts. But now going to New England and you've got this Drake May who's just now, he's still young and he's trying to develop some confidence. And then here comes this strong personality receiver. Now, I think that, you know, maybe there's a buffer in there because Vrable is. a strong personality too.

Yeah. But it kind of reminds me of, you know, for the minute I was with the Packers, and I mean, the stud on the team was Sterling Sharp. And the year I was there was the first year that Brett Favre had become the starter. And Sterling Sharp used to talk so much noise to Brett Farrb. He would just, hey, Brett, do I have to throw it to myself? you know, just all that kind of stuff. And I could see Mike Holmgren just cringing because it's like,

how am I going to get this guy's confidence to grow when I got my receiver just talking crap about him all the time? And I think it ended up, you know, Sterling Sharp did get injured. But I think it also ended up his career got shortened because Mike Holmgren felt that it was more important to have a confidence, quarterback, a quarterback who wasn't going to be afraid to make a mistake over, you know, this boisterous super, super wide receiver. And so I kind of see that situation coming to New England and it kind of puzzles me that they would make that move. Now, is A.J. Brown a stronger

personality than Diggs? That's what I was about to say. I think that they're fine with that Yeah, I think they're probably even right there. And I think that's where of Rable comes in because if he sees stuff, you know, maybe getting out of hand, you know, he'll cut bait. You know, because what you have to do is these organizations are built around the quarterback. And you can't be doing things to make them feel the least bit, you know, unsure. of where they got to go with the football. I've always said, I don't mind quarterbacks being cocky

because I don't think you can be modest and throw it into tight coverage. You know, you got to be, you got to be sure of yourself. And if you've got somebody chirping on the side all the time about get me the ball, you know, after a while it wears on you. So I think it improved the Patriots, but it's still one of those that puzzles me.

Yeah, I totally get what you're saying there. I just think personally for me, maybe because I'm just too analytics with everything, is just a third contract receiver is just so scary for me. How many guys have we seen where it's like, oh, yeah, this is a great receiver. Like so-and-so is getting a steal by getting this receiver. Yeah, they have to pay them a third contract,

but we'll see. And then the falloff happens. I mean, Tara McLaurin, right, with Washington last year, holding out for all that extra money, gets the big contract, his third contract, NFL from Washington barely place right Michael Perman Jr who is going to the the Steelers now all of us here in India are kind of like yeah he's not the same guy he was on that second contract and and I just think we see this across a lot of different wide receivers even like guys like Hopkins and

Devante Adams is still really good but we saw Devante Adams still kind of take a bit of a step back as well and go from like top five receiver to really good complimentary receiver so there is always that step back on that third contract for wide receivers. And I think trading a first round pick to have the luxury of paying a contract to a third to a third contract receiver is a very risky business. So it's not where I'd want to be, but, you know, it is what it is. You're muted, Derek. As far as the Colts and how they factor in here, guys, I know we sort have alluded to it. Big blockbuster is probably off the table, but, you know, could we see some sort of a move between now and then? I guess this is more, are you hoping to see that? I think I already

know your answer, Alan. Well, yeah, I think that the Colts will still make a move. If they have visions of winning the division, they know that they're still shorthanded. But, you know, sometimes the business of football is to stay right around that eight, eight and eight, eight and nine, nine and eight because you get to, you sell out your stadium, you generate fan interest, but then you don't bear the expense of having to go to the playoffs. I don't, I don't think that's where we're at this year with this. I understand. Yeah. Yeah. I understand traditionally. You know, when I, when I listen to Carly talk, you know, she impresses me as someone who, who, who, who wants to win now. And I think she's empowered Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen to do what it is

you need to do. And I think, you know, another area where I think they're serious about winning is they've given a lot of power to Anirumo, you know, to say, hey, what is it you need, to have your defense run the way it needs to run? And so I think it's an organization that's serious about winning, but it always takes a couple of stars to have you, you know, cross that bridge to winning. Yeah, and I'll be quick at this. Go trade for Alex Highsmith. Like, just, yeah, call the Steelers bluff.

I mean, again, if you're High Smith, maybe he comes into camp and he's all hunky-dory and he's like, oh, it's fine that they extended my backup for $10 plus million, but they still have me playing on my last year of my contract. maybe he can say all that stuff, say all the right stuff, but there's no chance in hell as a competitor that he's thinking, this is great for me. This is awesome. This is where I want to be with that.

So unless they're trying to give him an extension, which I highly doubt after they just handed out that big one to Herbig, he should probably be on the block. And if you're the Colts, try to offer the Grenard type package for him. And if that's not available, then pivot to a Tibido or pivot to a Josh Sweat and try to get something done at edge because I don't see a playoff

team whatsoever with with with the current edge rush room so if you can get a high smith if you can get a tibatow is definitely a step down from high smith but if you can get a high smith i think it improves your odds greatly to make to making the playoffs and and not being like alan says like that middle of the road team i know some people want to be there i don't get that vibe at all from carly so go out and get a high smith or like a commenter saying right here go sign clowny i just don't go into the edge rush room with too malo i was your starter this year i'd love to be proven wrong i hope that he clips this and puts it on his wall and stuff because he had like a 10 sacks season this year but i'm not feeling super confident so i i hope they go out and get a veteran in some regard

before the season starts yeah even if the results is good that process is bad to be relying on somebody like to um all to to to just hit magically thanks for joining us on the latest edition of the cult squad show will be back with you uh actually on sunday uh 9 30 eastern so we get a little bit off sequence to catch up for missing tuesday show we'll get back to our Tuesday, Thursday, Thursday sequence next week. As always, the Colts new cycle never ends. You'll keep it locked on Jake and Zach every day on Locked on Colts. Be sure to follow at Lockdown Colts on socials and check out our other great content on YouTube and TikTok.

And we'll see you next time right here on the squad show.