Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - COLTS SQUAD SHOW: Colts' RISKY Gamble | Indy Hopes for Soft Market on Jones, Extension for Pierce

Episode Date: March 4, 2026

The Colts have placed the rarely used transition tag on QB Daniel Jones and now need to work out an extension for WR Alec Pierce before he hits the open market next week. The Squad convenes to talk about the risk/reward of the front office's decision, what the market could look like for Jones, and how the Colts can navigate this situation before free agency opens. Find and follow Locked On Colts on your favorite podcast platforms:  🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-colts/  📺YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLdpxJspi1hMh5HL7ExpWOQ Give the squad a follow on X/Twitter @Schultz975, @JakeArthurNFL, @ZachHicks2, @allenpinkett, @LockedOnColts, and @ColtsOn_SI, as well on TikTok and Instagram! Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More  🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/lockedoncolts Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! TurboTax This year you’re getting a major upgrade — Intuit TurboTax now has in-person locations nationwide. Visit http://TurboTax.com/local to book your appointment today. Indeed Listeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast. Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONfor $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel FanDuel is giving you a way to turn that energy into even bigger potential wins with a College Basketball Parlay Profit Boost.Visit https://FANDUEL.COMto get started — Play Your Game. Betterhelp This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp.  Sign up and get 10% off at http://BetterHelp.com/LOCKEDON.  FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to the Colts Squad Show. I'm your host Derek Schultz and deep breath, guys. In, out. In, out. And I'm Zach Hicks, and I'm the person that Derek's talking to there because I don't even remotely understand this Colts decision. I'm Jake Arthur, and the Colts are into some risky business, but if it works, who cares, right? I'm Alan Pinkett, former Euler, and I figured out, after doing some history, I'm older. than the franchise tag.

Colts Nation rise up. It's the Colt Squad, everything Indianapolis Colts every week. Covering all the big hits and game-changing plays from the Circle City, the way only the locked on podcast network can. It's time to squad up. The Colt Squad Joe starts now. Welcome into the Colts Squad Show. Today's episode brought you by Fandool.

Use your profit boost on an NBA future and get entered for your chance to win a trip to the NBA finals, play your game with Fandu, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. I'm Derek Schultz, long-time indie sports talker and columnist for the Indianapolis Business Journal. I'm joined by a nerd name legend and longtime NFL running back Alan Pinkett,

who is here. He's coming back in right now. He clicked him off the show for the old comment. That's what we did. Past the age limit was Alan, but he's here with us as he always is, along with the locked-on Colts duo of Jake Arthur and Zach Hicks, your first listen every day.

Eventful day, boys. As the calendar turns to March, we've got free agency on the mind, but most importantly today was tag decision day. I'm actually kind of surprised the NFL hasn't made this more of a thing. They blow everything else up, right? And the Colts made their decision, taking the seldom used transition tag and placing it upon Daniel Jones. We'll talk about what that transition tag means for Jones in the first segment of the show to lead off here tonight. How this decision impacts the Alec Pierce timeline and how it impacts just how they approach Pierce in general.

We'll talk about that in segment two. The best case and worst case scenarios for the Colts because what they did today opens up a little bit of a risk reward. And there's a giant chasm between the reward part and the risk part for the Colts. But I know, Zach, you've been thinking on that the last couple of hours. And we'll dive into that in segment number three. And then looking at something that I didn't expect us to have to look at, I guess we have to at least entertain the thought because it's being talked about.

what if you move on from Jones and the quarterback market? I know we've brought that up on past shows, but now with this Kyler Murray caveat where you can pay him the minimum, you know, some people talking about that, including some NFL guys who have advocated for that exact move. We'll talk about that in segment four because I think there's some interest there. But let's start with the transition tag for Dan Jones. I understand, Zach, you and Jake just talked about this on the daily show as well.

And I don't want to play too much kind of rinse and repeat, right? But since we have the squad together and are reacting, a one-year deal worth over 37 million. Teams allowed to sign Jones to offer sheets with Indy could then match to retain him. It's kind of a throwback to the NBA, right? Restricted free agency. That's what this is with offer sheets and things like that. It's very rarely used.

Last time it was used in a season on a quarterback was Jeff George by the Falcons in 1996, the former number one overall pick who played for the Colts. And only four players have played under the transition tag this century. So this is this is rarefied air for the Colts. And I think it definitely raised some eyebrows, didn't it, Zach? Yeah, it's essentially the Colts saying to Daniel Jones and his agents, because I'm assuming what this was is the Colts have been wanting to get Jones under contract in like that $35 to $38 million per year range on a multi-year deal,

where Jones and his agency have wanted over $40 million, probably over the $43 million, which is the franchise test. and the Colts have just not been biting on that. And this is essentially the Colts daring them to go out and find a better offer on the open market. This is saying, hey, we have you now at 37 million. If you can find a multi-year deal above that, sure, go, bring it back to us and we will match that because we have already committed to you in every possible way we can. So we're essentially going to let the market do our negotiating on you and we'll match that contract. I think it's insanely dumb for a small market team to operate that way because you're now at

the at risk of another team out there just frontloading the heck out of that deal just to kill your cap situation. And again, you're back into this corner where you have to either match that front loaded deal or let him go and begin this quarterback carousel again. And depending on when that offer comes in for Jones, it could be after all the other quarterbacks are gone. So what this means for Daniel Jones, though, is the bare minimum that he's going to get this year is 37.833 million dollars is what the transition tag is. And there's still a scenario where he plays on that tag, but we'll have to see what happens. Now, he's, he is technically going to hit the open market. It's just the Colts have the right to first refusal. I have seen some Colts fans say like,

oh, is this like the non-exclusive franchise tag where they get trade comp back if a team signs them? No, that is not what this is. The only thing the Colts get here, is the right of first refusal. To either match it or not match it. If they don't match it, the other team gets Jones and the Colts get a whole lot of nothing. So, yeah, that Colts are basically setting the floor for Jones's contract this offseason,

and they're daring Jones's agent, his very aggressive agent that tries to get as most money as possible. Athletes First is very good at doing that. They've done this with plenty of different players in the league, from Buda Baker to now with Daniel Jones and Deshawn Watson, obviously, with his negotiations with the Cleveland Browns after that trade, they have been able to get a ton of money for their players. So this is the Colts calling their bluff, calling Daniel Jones's bluff.

To me, I don't think it's worth potentially losing Alec Pierce to call a bluff, but this is where the Colts are at right now with their off-season decisions. So I'll save my criticisms of the transition tag fully for future segments on today's show, but that is ultimately where it sits right now with the Indianapolis. Colts. Not see, Zach, this is the long game. You lose Daniel Jones to a 40 plus million dollar contract. You get a beautiful, like, third round comp pick out of that, right?

Do you even get a comp pick for it of his transition tag? I don't think you do. Well, now that is even worse, if that's the scenario. Because, again, the transition tag hasn't been used on a quarterback since you were born. So there's really no precedent for this. No, my guess is, you know, the Colts wanted to. have a way to quasi lock in their quarterback because they've already kind of thrown all their chips in on Daniel Jones. They look idiotic at this point if they lose out on Jones, but I just don't think they wanted to pony up for that $43 million price tag of the non-exclusive franchise tag.

So with 37 being more palatable, I still don't think it makes sense because that's the cap hit for this year. like you can dress things up for Daniel Jones with a contract you've designed with him and that not be the cap hit because as Zach and I discussed earlier you're now in the negatives so you're in a huge cap hole with Alec Pierce still to sign not to mention any other outside free agents you want to sign that are more than the vet minimum so you have work to do like you have to get Jones on an actual multi-year deal now which is the intention I'm sure they're still very confident they're going to do so. I just think this was kind of an interesting way to get their quarterback in place

and try and do everything they can to ensure that without strapping themselves with that $43 million price tag. And then it seems like unofficially Jones and Pierce are kind of a package deal where they want to play together. They want to return to Indy to play together. And Alec Pierce wants to know what quarterback situation is going on before he commits somewhere. So the Colts can now at least say, hey, your boy Daniel is here again.

You know, we got them for the one-year deal, but we're going to try and make it longer. We're going to try and make it longer with you. So, again, it's just the risky way to do this. Zach and I on the show earlier said what we probably would have done was franchise Alec Pierce and then just do your darnest to hammer out a multi-year deal with Jones because you can at least still say to each other, hey, we got your guy here. But with Pierce, his market is going to be a lot more demanding than Jones is. 31 other teams in the NFL should have some level of interest in Alec Pierce at the right price.

Jones is not going to be the same situation. Now, there are going to be some other suitors out there. They may even sign him to an offer sheet. We'll see. But I don't know, you kind of, you almost risk losing out on both guys now with how you've done this, rather than just taking the more expensive way to lock it in both. Yeah, and here's the thing, too, just before I kick it to Allen, like, if the Colts are so confident that no team is going to give him more than that transition tag,

that $37.83 million, then why even use that tag in the first place? Just have that be your offer to them and say, hey, we're confident no one else is going to go above this. So here's your offer. Let's tag Alec Pierce to make sure he doesn't go anywhere. and once you go around and fish around with the Vikings and other teams and when those teams don't give you the same offer you're looking for, then come back to our best offer. I don't know why you had to transition tag him then for that. I guess it's to make sure that there's no way that he leaves you just in case. But still, like, Jones coming back without Pierce is still a disaster for this offense.

So I just don't understand it whatsoever. Well, I learned something today. I thought there was only one tag, but I learned there were two. Three technically, three tags. Oh, yeah. So I learned about the transition tag, which has rarely been used. And the franchise tag, which when I first heard that Daniel Jones was tagged, I was thinking a situation like Dak Prescott, where they ultimately want to pay them,

but they just haven't hammered out a long-term deal. Well, transition tag is not like that. that. And in fact, you save money on the transition tag, which sort of leads me to believe that the tag itself is un-American. In a country where capitalism is king, what the hell are we doing restricting how much money somebody can get? Can you imagine a tag in baseball? And, you know, I guess in basketball, they have what's called what, that luxury tax? But do those teams care about that luxury tax,

the ones that really want to win? They could care less about that luxury tax. It's the price of doing business. But going back to a player perspective, you know, you've got to think about Daniel Jones and his feelings, I guess I should say. Because when you tag somebody, that's saying, oh, you just want to rent me?

you don't want me to be here for a long time. You just want one year of services. I can't even go out and buy a damn house. If I'm just going to be here one year, I can't get settled, get involved in the community, and do all those kinds of things. If you're only going to keep me here for a year, we know that probably isn't going to be the case.

But I don't understand the tag either because I really don't know how much of a market there is and, you know, the agent can go out and shop them around, but he's still coming off of an Achilles, and a lot of people won't touch him. And I'm sorry, all the doctors in the NFL don't necessarily tell the truth. There's going to be some doctors that fail his ass, and some doctors are like, yeah, he's going to be fine.

Go ahead. And then the last thing I'll say is, what's to stop the Texans from coming in, offering them 50 million, you know, because there is going to be a number where the Colts say, oh, hell, no, take them. You know, and then maybe the Texans are under the cap, and they don't mind taking a 50 million cap because they know not having Daniel Jones will destroy the Colts. Texans might be a bad example because they're a bit over the cap right now, but I understand

you're just saying 18. I'll take CJ Straub. Let's swap this thing out. Let's go. I don't know about that. It's like the screw your neighbor card game, right? Like you're all sitting at the table with your buddies and you can play those card games that's like screw your neighbor

where you have no intention of doing it, but you know that you're going to screw somebody else. But in all honesty, Alan, you know, Minnesota, if they were to come in with a $39 million offer or something like that, I mean, Zach, am I right in saying that would put the Colts in an extremely difficult spot. Not just Minnesota, I'm just throwing out a hypothetical. If anybody comes to an offer sheet with Daniel,

Jones is going to put the Colts in a really bad spot. Yeah. And again, what you're doing is you're letting the other teams negotiate the contract. Like Jake and I have said, like saying you give in initially, right, and you give Jones $45 million per year over four years, right? You can change around that cap figure to where in year one, you're only paying like $10 million against the cap, right? You give a big signing bonus. You backload it to a degree.

And you can make yourself more flexible for this year. But if Minnesota comes in and offers a three-year contract with the first. year cap hit being 70 million. Again, they don't have that cap space. I'm just saying they could do something like that to force your hand to make it so you are in a really tough spot. You know, so I don't like this letting other teams negotiate for me type of aspect of the transition tag or the non-exclusive franchise tag. Now, one thing I will say about the NFL, and I'm glad I don't work for the NFL because I can't trouble saying this. There's no better sport in the NFL for colluding against players than the NFL.

There's no other sport that's better than it than what the NFL does. We all saw with Lamar Jackson a couple years ago. All the owners got together and said, we're not going to make an offer on Lamar Jackson out of respect for the Ravens. And the Ravens were able to keep him when he was on that non-exclusive franchise tag. When in reality, 30 teams should be offering two first-round picks for Lamar Jackson. Come on. This is stupid.

So there's a very real scenario where no team makes an offer on Daniel Jones because they're all colluding together to be cool with it. This is just how the NFL works. You know, they don't like, that's why tags exist as well. It's the league that takes away the power from the players more than any other league. So, again, this could work out for the Colts. It's just, it's risky, man. It's really, really risky. I have like 100 more things to say about how risky this is, but we got to move on for time's sake.

But it's just a dangerous game they're playing right now. It's a league where free agency didn't come into play until, what, 1988, 1988, 1989. Right. When baseball had it, you know, y'all know the name Kurt Flood. I guess he's the one who eventually went out. But wasn't that in the 60s that he went out and fought for free agency? Yeah, but it didn't come into play until the NFL until 1988. So yes, there are some players that, you know, call it, you know, some form of indentured servitude.

But you do make a lot of money. Alan, you didn't feel that way, right? never would take advantage of Alan Pinkin. Of course, not. What did the tag decision mean for Alec Pierce? Could the free agent wide receiver actually hit the open market now? The unthinkable, right? We'll discuss next when the Colt Squad Show returns.

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So what does the Jones tag mean for Alec Pierce? We alluded to this a little bit. I think the conventional wisdom was, and I know Jake, you had mentioned this, that, you know, kind of gunned to your head, what are the Colts going to do? Well, they'll tag Pierce and then hustle to try to get a deal done with Jones, knowing that Pierce really wants to play with Jones, and then you can take care of your quarterback and then take care of your wide receiver on a long-term deal.

With no intention of actually having Pierce play on the franchise tag, just doing that so you had more time to give yourself to extend that deal. And of course, that didn't happen. So now the Colts risk losing Pierce if they can't come to terms on an extension before free agency begins next week. But how big of a risk are we talking here? You know, we're talking with where we sit today, eight days, essentially, for the Colts to get something done.

And I know the good faith negotiations are ongoing, but what are you hearing as far as those talks as they continue? Yeah, I think, again, it looks risky to all of us, but I just really don't think the Colts are sweating as much. I think they wanted to set certain price tags. and if Jones was the one, number one, they don't have intentions of losing either of them, but you use the tag when you have absolutely zero intentions

of letting someone walk or hit the open market. I just think if you're the Colts, if you franchise Jones, then $43 million, if you're trying to work out a multi-year deal, you're going to have to come in around that for a year. So I think it just wanted to go a little bit lower with the transition tag. And yeah, I don't know.

I don't think they're reinventing the wheel here. I just think they're a lot more confident than the rest of us are about this all getting done. And again, they're the ones privy to all the conversations behind the scenes. Who knows how long we've actually been working on it. But from my understanding, I mean, they made a lot of progress last week during the combine. I just don't think they were quite there yet on the, you know, the finality. what they were working on. We do have like five and a half days, of course.

And I mean, the combine was just over the last seven days. So I'm sure something is probably coming soon. I mean, with Michael Pittman Jr. When they franchise tagged him a couple years ago, what was it, 24, 48 hours later that they had his multi-year deal done. So I would like to think that's probably what we're looking at. Like, I legitimately think the Colts only use tags as a legitimate time buying tool.

They don't use it as, you know, they don't use it as, you know, we gotcha type of thing like a lot of other teams do. So it is tough to have to nail two of these at the same time. But I'm fairly confident it's coming. It's just the way this is rolling out right now,

it's a nail biter until a solution comes or until Monday comes. And, you know, they start, we start hearing about other teams. approaching these guys. But I don't know, if I was the Colts, as soon as they traded A.D. Mitchell and it looked like Alec Pierce was going to continue having another productive year, I probably would have got the ball

rolling right then. But, you know, that's what teams get for waiting this long. Yeah. And here's the big thing. And I just, this is the big misstep, in my opinion, is, again, they're letting the market decide what Jones's value is, right? The only way you let the market decide is when he hits the market, right? Right? He has to hit the market for those negotiations to happen, which is Monday, what, at noon or whatever? I think it's at noon on Monday.

So by waiting until then, at the very least, to hammer out this long-term deal with Daniel Jones, you're going to let Pierce hit that open market as well. And you could have this like, you know, an unofficial deal with Pierce right now where it's like, hey, once Jones signs his long-term deal, here's what you'll sign and you're just going to wait for that shoe to drop. But it's nice to say that right now until that open market hits on 12 on Monday and the Buffalo bills with, again, Pierce is talking all this stability that he wants a quarterback. What's more stable than Josh Allen in Buffalo? What's more stable than Drake May in New England? What's more stable than, you know, all these other top. Patma Holmes in Kansas City if they wanted to go that route, you know, like that's a lot of stability. And if we're talking Patriots here, Patriots can offer them 50 million if they wanted to.

They have all the cap space in the world. They're a young team that's paying nobody right now. So these teams can offer more with more stability at quarterback. And again, even if you have this like, hey, here's our $27 million contract on the table for you. Once we sign Jones, you'll sign it. Again, it's nice to say that in theory before you can talk to other teams. But again, if you're going to let Jones market discern what his value is and then come back to Pierce, with your strong offer, you got to be pretty darn sure that Pierce isn't going to sign with

somebody else before that. And I just think that's insanely risky and a pointless risk to take. Again, franchise Pierce, let Jones hit the market and then you can same exact thing. Or, or if you just don't want to take that risk at all, just meet Jones's demands at like $45 million per year, whatever, and then let the next regime deal with it. If it doesn't work, if it does work, then we're good. Like, there's no issue. I just think this is the dumbest option they took. I don't understand it, which is what I've been saying all day now, apparently,

on all the shows here I've been doing. But again, you're exposing Alec Pierce to a rabid market with what? There's like five or six teams that are above like $60 million in cap space now. You're playing with fire here. This is the number one receiver that's hitting the market. And he just had his first thousand yard season on a fewer than 50 catches. He only had 84 targets. I think he was the only guy to go over 1,000 yards this year with under 100 targets.

So teams are going to see that and see we can maximize this guy in a way the Colts haven't with our Drake May, with our Josh Allen. And that could be something enticing to a player like Pierce. So I just think you're playing a risky game. And I just don't think this offense next year is going to be remotely good enough. If you're rolling out Pittman, Downs, and Doolin as your top guys. Like, Pittman's already going downhill. Bill Downs had his worst career season last year, and Doolin hasn't been able to stay healthy when he plays on offense.

So I just don't know what the answers are for your offense there. You're relying all the way on Jonathan Taylor to stay healthy again, which I don't know what's going to happen. You're relying on your torn Achilles quarterback without his top receiver, and then maybe a second year jump from Tyler Warren. So I don't know. We'll see. I just think, again, this was probably the worst possible option the Colts could have played.

So, Zach, there's only one problem with the scenario that you present. It makes too much sense. Why do something that makes sense? Right. But I kind of see it as the cults sort of are looking at maybe we can hold the line on Daniel Jones with the tag and we break the bank on Alec Pierce. But see, sometimes teams don't know what they have unless somebody else wants them.

You know, it's sort of like you get tired of a girlfriend and it's like, I'm breaking up with her. But then a long line of dudes come after her. It's like, well, damn, I didn't really appreciate what I had at the time. And sometimes teams don't realize how coveted. it a player is until they get out on the open market. That's one thing that happened. Here's your history lesson, by the way.

When the NFL did this Plan B free agency where they protected so many guys on a team and then they took like 16 guys off of a roster and said, you guys can go and shop to market. And then when those guys started making more than the guys that were protected, is like, okay, well, maybe we should just do full-on free agency because it's plan B free agency is just screwing everything up. So I think of it is they are playing poker. Derek, you mentioned the card game. Would you call the card game?

Yeah, yeah. They are playing that game. but I think in some instances they probably know that they're not going to get, there's not going to be huge offers for Daniel Jones, but they know that some folks will come after Alec Pierce, but they sort of have in their mind what they think he's worth, but they probably need to know from the league how other people feel about him in case they have to break the bank.

And I'll go back to one thing you said, Zach, about potential collusion that happens in the league. And I'm not claiming this. I don't want to see my name next to collusion with the NFL. But it sure didn't make sense last year when Shudor Sanders went in the fifth round. So, you know, you know, it's, I tell people all the time, it's a good business to be in. It's not a nice business. Yeah. It's not nice when you're in every other job in America,

you can make as much as you want, but you're restricted on how much you can make in the NFL. Yeah, and the one thing I just want to throw back in here is all this reaction and dramaticism for me all day. It's all completely moot if they are able to get a deal done with Pierce before Monday. But then I would really question his agent, why they would sign anything before Monday because you have so much more earning potential if you take this into Monday, right? Because there's no, there's nothing tying him to Indy right now,

nothing whatsoever in terms of team control over him. So, you know, unless he just really wants to stay in India and does not want to leave whatsoever, I just think this was a misstep by the Colts. But again, if they're able to get a deal done with Pierce and or Jones before the Monday deadline, then this is going to be proving a smart play. And we'll talk about that in the next segment, the risk reward of all this because I think it is fascinating. This is the route that has the highest risk and the highest reward for the Colts. But again, you have to be darn sure that you can get that deal done with Pierce before Monday because the open market is brutal.

What's the famous valor quote? He always says that C players make A money. Well, what do B players make? What do B plus players make? They make A plus money, A plus money. And then real quick, someone's mentioning here that Pierce's brother is coming to produce. So that might keep him in Indy.

I heard plane tickets are pretty easy to afford when you're making $30 million for a year. It's a business. You know, or even if you go right down the road to Chicago or something, for instance, you can still come over to Indy. Like,

it's not that big a deal. But yeah, I just, I don't know. I don't like exposing a very good player to free agency because once a guy hits the market, it can get absolutely insane in there. And this wasn't even the same caliber of player,

but I mean, we saw this with DeNico Autry a couple years ago. that Ballard was really convinced that he could get that guy back. Autry got a better deal from a different team, and instead of giving the Colts a chance to match, he just took that offer. And Ballard was very pissed about it. It was one of his biggest mistakes.

He's always talked about it. And ultimately, it changed right there. So, again, just get the deal done with Pierce, and all the complaining goes out the window, but they got to get that deal done. Well, and as far as a player, as a player, you got a very limited amount of space and time to maximize, you know, your worth in this league. You got a little window that, you know, because a lot of guys are done before 30.

Now what the hell are going to do if you live till 70, you know? So you've got a short amount of time to make as much as you possibly can. And so you have to take the emotion out of it. and understand as a player, this is business. You know, and I'm talking about an opportunity for generational wealth for my family. And I owe it to my family to go test the market to see what I'm really worth. And yeah, I love Indy and, you know, I've got great teammates. You know, we got a lot of camaraderie on this team.

We're all brothers. Bump that. Go get paid. because you only have a short amount of time because no down is promised to you. You could get hurt tomorrow and all that money stops. So it's from a business perspective, he's got to go see at least what's happening out there on the market. Daniel Jones too. Yeah, Alex Pierce could love the colds.

He could love, I don't know, hiking at Eagle Creek Park. But if somebody's going to give me a phone call and talk about a $30 million contract and playing with Josh Allen, and I'm picking up the phone. I am taking that phone call. I'm just saying. We come back on the show. We'll talk more about the best and worst case scenarios, the risk reward of the Colts decisions today.

That's next on the Colt Squad Show. This portion of the Colts Squad Show brought you by indeed, workplace chaos, deadline stacking up and inbox overflowing. And the one position you have to fill is still sitting open. When the pressure is on and you need the right hire, this is a job for sponsored jobs. Indeed, sponsored jobs helps you reach the people who actually fit what you're looking for. Skills, experience, location.

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Kicks Alan Pinkett. I am Derek Schultz. Thanks so much for joining us. We got 75% of the squad together down in Indy at the JW Marriott and got to hang out, snap to pick, throw it up on X. If you want to follow along at Locked on Colts. You get actual Colts content, not just picture of these three handsome dudes that are tearing at you, cheesing at you right now, but you want to follow us on socials as well besides, obviously, the daily show your first listen every day. Let's talk about, you know, before we even do this, with the risk and reward and the the good and the bad scenarios today. You know, what kind of struck me about all of this guys is the big reason for bringing

back Chris Bauerd and Shane Steichen was belief in what the Colts did in the first eight, nine, ten games of the season, right? With the seven and one, eight and two start, basically everything that happened, Germany was the cutoff point, right? Everything that happened before then, that was the real sticking point for the Ursaid daughters and and everyone else to running this thing back. And now to get in a position where they could potentially lose Daniel Jones. Like I was on social media today and some people were chiming in about this and that with Jones.

Oh, well, you know, Kyler Murray on the minimum and they should let him walk. And I'm like, guys, for months, they've been talking about how Jones is their guy and they're confident that the Achilles is not an issue and they found their franchise guy. And this is the reason that they didn't fire their underachieving general manager for missing the playoffs for a fifth straight year. And to me, Zach, I just don't think the Colts are in a position. They've really sort of backed themselves in the corner. Like, what Jones is worth to me is somewhat irrelevant when you have based your entire

rationale for the decisions that you've made so far this off season on retaining him. Am I wrong? Yeah. Isn't that the fascinating aspect, right? Where every single media appearance and every time they've talked about Daniel Jones, they've said, oh, this is our franchise quarterback. We're not worried whatsoever about the Achilles. we fully believe in him going forward,

but going above $40 million for that? No way. We're not doing that. So what is he? Is it your franchise quarterback or not, right? Do you fully believe in him or not? That's the really weird mixed signaling that they're doing here with this move, right? By saying, we're not going to give you the franchise tag.

That's for franchise players. You're not a franchise player. You're a transitional player. We'll see what you got here. But every single time they talk, this is our franchise quarterback. we're fully committed 100% think he's our long-term quarterback. We're letting our young top-five-pick quarterback seek out of trade because we're ready to move forward with Daniel Jones. But you're, oh my gosh, what you're asking is way too much.

In a quarterback starved league, is there ever too much for your quarterback if you believe he's a franchise quarterback, right? Is there ever too much? So it really comes down to that. And it's just such a weird situation for the Colts. They're speaking out both sides of the mouth. they want to have everything break their way. And while we're talking like the risk reward of this move, this does boast the greatest reward for the Colts because the absolute best case scenario

is you have Jones tagged at 37 million right now. You are able to get this long term deal done with Pierce before Monday because he sees that there is this at least somewhat commitment to Jones. Right. And say you get Pearson here at $26, $27 million per year, right? which would be great. That would be perfect before Monday. And then Jones hits the open market and there's just no interest in him whatsoever. So you can have him at that one year 37 or you could get him for a couple years, whatever, two or three years at 37 million dollars, whatever it is. And in the

long term, you probably saved millions and millions of dollars by doing it this way instead of meeting Jones's demands, right? But again, the risk is you could lose either or both of these guys. You could expose one of them to the market that drives their price up drastically and you could end up paying millions and millions of more at it. So again, the reward of saving a couple million dollars here and there on this versus the risk of either losing one or both or paying more money on both of them or on one of them. It's like such, it's like, and people who, play blackjack can correct me on this it's like hitting on 16 when the dealer has 10 right like why are you doing that i believe that's the term i'm looking for here with blackjack

alan's laughing so maybe alan gets it more than i do i'm not a big gambler here uh but yeah it's like hitting on 16 you don't need to do all that like come on so i don't know i just i don't understand it again i it could work out and this could be a stroke of genius for the colts because they could end up saving pivotal dollars to reinvest into their defense. But you got to be darn sure that you are saving that money if you're making these moves. So again, we have five days to see how this all plays out. This reaction here on Tuesday could be drastically different from the reaction on Thursday or next Tuesday's show.

By the way, my wife plays Blackjack. And if I went in somebody at the table hit on a 16, she'd come across the table. She'd MF them. she would say she'll probably get thrown out of the casino for somebody hitting on that 16. Right. And that's what this feels like, right? Like you're hitting on 16. And look, if you get a five, awesome. Awesome. We're celebrating here. But why are you trying to hit on the 16 to get a five when it's more likely you're going to get a six or a seven or an eight or a nine and the whole table bus? I believe that's the right terminology with all that. So yeah, we'll see. I really hope that this works out for the Colts.

And I'm not saying it's at the end of the world right now, but I just, again, I hate exposing these guys to the open market. Speaking of exposed, any fumbling of these guys would be the Colts totally being caught with their pants down. Chris Ballard especially. Like, so much is going into this year with the assumption that Chris Ballard is going to build off of the first half of last year with Daniel Jones as his quarterback. and presumably Alec Pierce as the offense is really only big play passing threat downfield. Tyler Warren has only been using that facet like a couple times. Josh Downs has been relegated to possession duty.

Michael Pittman Jr., we don't even know if he's going to be on the team. So what the team risks is completely losing its identity and somehow starting over at square one, despite Shane and Chris being given a new lease on life here. You know what I mean? Like it would be unbelievable. Kyler Murray being a consolation prize would still be such a big F up. Like just to put it bluntly, because what do you mean?

Like you don't have Daniel Jones anymore and now you're taking this guy that the Cardinals couldn't wait to get rid of. Like if we're talking about iffy stuff going on, Kyler Murray was essentially rendered out for the season with this foot injury, despite essentially being questionable the next week that it happened. Like they couldn't wait to just not get him out there, sure. So it's, this would just be an all-time fumble. And the fact that Chris would be able to continue going after somehow not locking up his quarterback and not locking up this receiver. after I mentioned,

A.D. Mitchell being gone. So, okay, you get rid of A.D. Mitchell. You already know Michael Pittman Jr. has a $29 million cap hit. And you let Alec Pierce get this close to the market, let alone get to the market. And then, oh, yeah, you might lose this quarterback, too, who you're hinging your entire 2026 season on,

despite him coming off in Achilles. That shows no solid plan. And it makes every single person, watching this whole situation say, what are you doing? What is the plan here? So whatever reputation they have still, they risk losing it all.

They risk losing their direction of the entire team. I think they risk losing the team. What did the players in the locker room think if you don't land Daniel Jones? Like, that's what everyone's being sold on. If you lose Alec Pierce, who you have gushed about being a draft and developed story and doing everything the right way and you really want him back they want to come back like what

message does that send to anybody who observes the indianapolis colts like it's an awful look if you really lose either of these guys but especially jones because like what are you supposed to do a quarterback after that so the risk is they lose them both the reward is they get them both and so in in this particular scenario, they have to have a number in their head how much is too much to pay Daniel Jones.

They probably have that number in their head. But this is the same organization who let a guy go because they said his neck was bad and he went and played in two other Super Bowls. So there is a number out there

where they're going to say take them. And we'll just have to see what that number is. But, you know, like I say again, you're going to get tired of hearing me saying the salary cap is un-American. Yeah, and I think, you know,

when you talk about just sort of, you know, getting caught with their pants down a little bit, Jake, and just the plan, it just kind of brings, it unearths all of the last 10 years, right, that Colts fans have been going through here, and the mistrust with the organization that really dates back to how they handled the Andrew Luck situation. I think fans are just tired of being told something. Okay, Daniel Jones is our guy and this is our franchise and we really believe it.

And then something else happens. And the Colts actions don't back up what they're saying. Like, you want to believe what your favorite team is telling you at these press conferences. And I understand that there is some gamesmanship, right, with that. like you don't want to just spill the beans and tell everybody publicly exactly what your approach is going to be. But the Colts have really been kind of banging the table about this. And then to, you know, God forbid, you lose both of these guys. And you've got a whole mess of players on last hurrah final years of their contracts as well.

And a GM in his 10th year and a head coach in his fourth, the clock is ticking on everybody. And to reset with a new quarterback and do all of that, my God. even if it works out, it would just feel like you kind of stumbled into it working out. Yeah, I mean, again, I think without a doubt Daniel Jones is going to be here next year. I think there's a 99.9% chance. Because I honestly, even kind of go and countered what Alan said, I don't even know if there is a number that they wouldn't be willing to pay. I just think they're so confident that no team is going to go even where that franchise tag was,

which was 43 million, that they don't really, you know, they're not really fearing. losing Daniel Jones. I just don't think they're fearing losing Alex Pierce enough at this point is my big part of all this. So yeah, again, you can sell this thing however you want to sell it. I'm not even saying it's the right thing to give Daniel Jones all this money. I'm just saying when you're bringing these guys back for their one last shot of glory, right? Because last year started so well, you need the pieces back that were pivotal to that. And I just don't think it's, I don't think it's you're going to replicate that kind of success without both of these guys. And even with both of them, I don't even know if you're going to replicate that kind of

success. But your best chance of replicating it is having both of these guys in there. I mean, Pierce was, I mean, what him and, him and Tyler Warren were the focal points of the passing offense. And then Daniel Jones was obviously a big part of the passing offense as well. He's the quarterback. But those were your two focal points. Without either one of them, I don't think Pittman or Downs can pick up the slack in that regard. Like, it's one thing. It's one to lose Pitman and having to pick up his slack. I think that's very manageable, especially if you give a bigger role to Pierce,

who I think can work a bigger role. I don't think Pittman and Downs can replace the production that you got out of Pierce. So again, like, you could save some money here on Jones, and I think that they're making a fine bet with that. It's just at the risk of Pierce, I just think is too dangerous. You could always go, forgive me for saying this,

you could always go get Kirk Cousins when they cut them. Right. No, I was going to say that both guys for what you're trying to accomplish are kind of irreplaceable. You can't just go get a deep threat out there, especially like Alec Pierce is elite at this. Two years in a row leading the NFL in yards per catch, those guys just aren't out there. Pierce is also the top receiver on the market with Pickens being franchise tagged as well. So like you can't just assume you can get someone in the draft that's ready to plop in and play 50 snaps a game either. that's unrealistic. Ashton Doolin, like Zach alluded to earlier, has never been able to handle a sizable role

on offense. And then with Jones, you sell him as your multi-year solution. The only other guy you could maybe say that's the case with out on the market is Malik Willis, who he's never been given that kind of leash. So that in itself would be a huge risk. like you would just be renting a quarterback again you'd be on the quarterback carousel again and like for those people who weren't really bought in on anthony richardson i'm sorry i don't know how much more you're going to like kailer murray yeah and you know we're talking about

fit in a shame stike in offense i'm not even really worried about that i'm worried about fit in a shame stike in film room like is he going to sit there and watch it with you know like that that's the real question you know that's the real question to me, you know, no one questions Kyler Murray's talent, the questions there want to. And that's something that you never have to question with Daniel Jones, even coming off in Achilles.

We come back on the show, reexamining the quarterback options in case Daniel Jones is lost, I guess we have to. So we're going to do it next when we wrap up the Colt Squad Show. This portion of the Colt Squad show brought you by our friends at game time. We live in a world where we can stream anything, order food in minutes and carry supercomputers in our pockets, and somehow buying

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Download the GameTime app, create an account. Use code locked on for $20 off your first. purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem the code locked on l-o-c-k-ed-o-n for 20 off download the game time app today back for a final time in the locked-on cold squad show thanks so much for joining us it feels like um cold sundays again the comment board very active in here it's been a really eventful day it's nice to have some news to discuss on the show and certainly a lot trickling in for the cold say this is generally when we do our little slow drip news and notes portion of the show but we actually uh

have enough to kind of fill out a four segments. So, Zach, you had mentioned, or I think Jake, actually, you had mentioned Malik Willis. The veteran free agent market isn't great. We learned today that Kyler Murray has, in his deal, he's going to get the money from Arizona so we can actually sign for a minimum deal, which changes, I think, the arithmetic to some people. I mean, you know, some folks see, well, former number one overall pick and minimum salary. and look, it is enticing to have somebody of that caliber or that talent level, I should say, on a minimum salary.

But, you know, the Colts don't seem to have a lot of great options without a first-round pick. And the veteran market certainly isn't great. But it just kind of still goes back to the underlying point of all of this, Zach, that, you know, Jones felt like a great fit for Shane Syke. And it felt like something was unlocked there. I don't know if that's real or not because nine games. is not a sample size. Two months is not enough of a sample size. But it gave me enough to want to see more, even coming off an Achilles tear. And I just think with the Colts, with Kenny Moore and

Grover Stewart and assuming he's back, Zaire Franklin, Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, Quentin Nelson, all of these guys are on the last year of their deals. And Ballard is in year 10. And Stuyken is in year four. And I see some Colts fans talking about, well, I don't want to be bogged down for 27, 28. Guys, They got a win right now, okay? I'm not worried about 2028 right now. They got a win now. I'm tired of waiting around.

I'm sick of it. I don't want any more excuses. I don't want any more kick the can down the road. I don't want any more of that. They have to do this. And even if you have to be reckless to do it and do this with Jones or whatever else, I'm just going on what the Colts are selling me. And if the Colts sold this to me, then they need to come through on it.

Yeah. And again, here's the thing. I've seen in comments too when I brought it up. I don't think Daniel Jones is worth like $45 million per year. I don't even know if his agent actually thinks that. They're pushing for it. But worth in what you actually get paid are very different conversations here. But the reason why I said if I'm the Colts,

I'd prefer just to make that payment and then tag Pierce just so you get the band back together for one last hurrah, is if this whole season goes south, right, all those guys that you just mentioned, Derek, are not going to be here in 2027, right? So then if you just want to cut Jones after that, eat a bunch of dead cap, it doesn't matter. We are a rebuilding football team with a lot of small contracts. It doesn't matter, right, for the next guy.

So why not just make this big push? It's like this one foot in, one foot out type of approach that's been the same since 2022. You know, we go back to 2022 where, again, they're a horrible football team and they run it back with like 20 of the same starters the next year except with a new young quarterback and a new head coach. and they thought that would change things. They've always been, again, this one in, one out type of team. And it's just not a way that you can live as a team. I'm not saying you always go reckless and throw everything at trying to win

when you don't have the ingredients there. But you have to choose your path sometimes, especially on your last legs, you know, as a general manager, presumably last legs. We have no clue he's actually on his last legs, I guess, as a general manager or as a head coach. So, yeah, I just, yeah, all this talk of Kyler Murray and other quarterbacks, I'm not going to make a definitive statement on what Kyler Murray would be like in this offense because I made definitive statements about Daniel Jones last offseason that I kind of ate it a little bit during the season with all that. But I will say this.

Didn't we all? Right. Didn't we all, except for Allen. I was pretty high on Daniel Jones. I will say this about Kyler Murray, though. Shane Steichen's love of Daniel Jones stems from a place of devotion to his craft and commitment to his work and just how. present and professional he has at every turn and how that was a big change from what the Colts had had the first couple years. And that's not even just about Richardson. That's also about

kind of flaco and minchu to a degree as well. And just how Jones was the consummate professional who was just so devoted to everything. And that was exactly what they needed on the same page, a film savant, everything they wanted. I don't know if you can get that out of Kyler Murray, as Jake kind of said in the last segment. Look, again, maybe he, maybe Kyler Murray would be the committed person ever when he got here, but that just hasn't been the case thus far in his career. So take that for what you will. Again, it sounds great on Baden, right, to get Kyler Murray in here for $1 million and letting Daniel Jones walk.

But we operate in the real world here, and the Colts have made a lot of verbal commitments to Daniel Jones. He will be their quarterback next season. I am fully confident that Daniel Jones will be their quarterback next season. So, again, they could add a quarterback in the draft still or sign a veteran to be his backup, but Daniel Jones will be the Colts quarterback. It's just we're jumping through these weird hoops to get there. Let me real quick read off the list of the top of the market quarterback.

This ever-changing top of the market that's gotten so much better, right, Jake? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So you got Kyler Marie and Malik Willis. Kyler, once he's released, they'll be on top. Aaron Rogers is next. Do you want to hear the albatross that happens until the next group? You're talking about Mr. Unlimited. Russell Wilson is next.

Joe Flacco, Marcus Marietta, Mitchell Tribisky, Terrod Taylor. Go lock up, Daniel Jones, please. Tear his other Achilles first. I don't care. He probably needs to be your quarterback because if you're starting over from square one with one of these guys, you have to hope for a career resurgence from Kenny Pickett or Trey Lance or something like that. Can you pick it, baby? You can't just, you can't, you can't be like, hey, Sam Howell, what's up?

Let's go. Let's go. Daniel Jones has to be your quarterback. You have to make a commitment here beyond the transition tag. But again, the transition tag won't credit because you cannot have a $37 million cap hit this year if you want to do anything else in free agency. Like, it's unrealistic because you still have to get Pierce. and you just kind of got thrown a lifeline today when the Bengals said they weren't going to tag

Trey Hendricks in if that's who you want. Like you have opportunities here if you just play your cards right. Like just do it. Like we're again, hopefully we're all just arguing for no reason about it. And they're like, guys, like we got it. Shut up.

But, you know, right now this is the information we're having to work with. So it's a little scary until we get some definitive action. on what's coming next. Well, you know, all the years I've watched and participated in professional football, this is the first year where there's really, it's really been lean at the quarterback position. There's always been good quarterbacks out there.

And all these guys are good that you're saying. I'm not, you know, I don't, you know, my whole saying about there's no bad teams in NFL. there's only teams with bad records because all these guys are good and all the guys you mentioned are good. But I guess sometimes when you get a franchise quarterback and you get spoiled with that, that taking something less to that is just something that you just don't want to live with. Having said that, get ready for the Riley Leonard Show, man. Because I don't think Daniel Jones is going to be ready to go.

the first month. So you're going to have to lean on him anyway. Riley Lennar is going to have to be ready to go. So get ready to ride that train, the Riley Lennard train. Something else I forgot to add on top of all this on, like, how embarrassing it would be if you lost Daniel Jones is the fact that you're also allowing Anthony Richardson to be on the trade market. Not to say that it would have worked out with Anthony, but you're also letting your former top five pick quarterback out the door as well. Well, and I'll say, you know, to talk about Kyle and Murray, to me, there's, you know, there's certain athleticism you need at the quarterback position and, you know, armed talent and all that stuff.

But to me, there's sort of like a fit that you have to have. Sometimes it's a cultural fit. Sometimes it's a psychological fit. A Kyle Murray in this offense with a Shane Steichen just doesn't seem like a fit. It seems like putting a square peg in a round hole. You know, that's me, but there just doesn't seem to be that fit. You know, now, I would much rather see Shane Steaking with a guy like Mendoza, but we know he's not going to have a chance to get him.

But that's the kind of fit you're talking about. You know, Mendoza is, I guess Daniel Jones is a grown-up Mendoza. I guess is the way I put it. like a guy who's all bald, kind of nerdy, but the fact that he's nerdy means that that dude is laser focused on the field. He ain't getting distracted by all the stuff on the periphery.

And that's how I see Daniel Jones is, you know, for kicks, he's going to watch some film, you know, for some fun, you know, he's going to watch some more film. And he wants some more fun, he's going to get on the phone with the coach and talk about different reeds that he would make. So that's the kind of guy I see working with Shane Stike.

And I don't see a Kyla Murray doing that. Yeah, to Alan's point, you know, being a massive dork is generally been a prerequisite for having quarterback success here in Indianapolis because Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck. I mean, you know, these guys were massive football dorks. That's all they wanted to consume. And Jones is kind of the same way. Jake, did you want to get a final thought in or Zach? Yeah, real quick, just to respond to Alan, I do think Jones will be ready to go by week one. I don't know how effective it'll be, like if he'll be at 100%, but I do think with the modern recovery rate on Achilles' injuries lately, I do think he will be cleared to go by week one.

Riley Leonard will get all the off-season reps for sure, but I think Jones will be good to go by week one. And I think Jones would start, you know, if all things go well every game next year, but that hasn't really been the case throughout his career at this point. But I think Jones would be good to go next year. So it's just about getting that deal done with him. All right. Derek, let's start a new segment here, throwing out a new idea. So if you lose Daniel Jones, would you rather go ahead with Riley Winner for no extra money and sock all that extra money into everything else around the roster?

No. Yeah, I'd also say no to that. At that point, fine. Just give me Kyler in the minimum, and let's just go. I would say no. I would say no also because the NFL is a game for starters. The college is a game of depth. You don't care about depth in the NFL.

You care about your starters. Good point. Thanks so much for joining us here on the latest edition of the Colt Squad Show, our most unhinged one in several weeks. We'll be back with you Thursday night at 9 p.m. after Daniel Jones and Alec Pierceville signed Long. term extensions and we have a much calmer edition of the show. As always, the Colts news cycle never ends. That's not a report, by the way. Please don't put that in the newspaper that I said that.

Keep it locked on Jake and Zach every day on Lockdown Colts. Be sure to follow at Lockdown Colts on socials. Check out our other great content on YouTube and TikTok and we'll see you next time right here on the squad show.