Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - COLTS SQUAD SHOW: Early STATEMENT Game | How the Colts Can Put the AFC On Notice With Big Debut

Episode Date: September 10, 2026

Can the Colts turn up their tepid preseason prognostications with a big win over the Ravens on Sunday? The Squad talks about the potential for a "statement game" and where the Colts can take advantage in the matchup with first-year head coach Jesse Minter. Also, an examination of the season's tough five-game opening stretch and the guys divulge their Super Bowl picks!0:00 Cold open / rundown2:47 Where Colts can take advantage vs. Ravens17:40 Statement game?32:36 Brutal start to schedule48:04 Sleeper teams!58:16 Super Bowl picksFind and follow Locked On Colts on your favorite podcast platforms: 🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-colts/📺YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLdpxJspi1hMh5HL7ExpWOQGive the squad a follow on X/Twitter @Schultz975, @JakeArthurNFL, @ZachHicks2, @allenpinkett, @colts_hit, @LockedOnColts, and @ColtsOn_SI, as well as on TikTok and Instagram!Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/lockedoncoltsEverydayer ClubIf you never miss an episode, it’s time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join your team’s community: https://lockedonpodcasts.com/everydayerclubSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!HomeChefFor a limited time, Home Chef is offering my listeners FIFTY PERCENT OFF and free shipping for your first box PLUS free dessert for life! Go to http://HomeChef.com/LOCKEDONNFL. QuoTry QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to http://Quo.com/LOCKEDONNFL. IndeedListeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast.PrizePicksVisit https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONNFL and use code LOCKEDONNFL and get $150 if you win your first $5 lineup!OdooGreat organizations win because operations matter. And that’s why you should get Odoo. Try for free today at https://Odoo.com/lockedon.GustoTry Gusto today at http://gusto.com/LOCKEDONNFL, and get three months free when you run your first payroll.KALSHIFor a limited time,Download the Kalshi app and use code [LOCKEDON] to get $10 when you trade $10.GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelGet three hundred fifty dollars in Bonus Bets — GUARANTEED — when you bet five dollars every day for seven days. Join all the action at https://FANDUEL.COMFANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to the Colts Squad Show. I'm Derek Schultz and football. Football. That's all I got to say. And I'm Zach Hicks. And we've already had a major quarterback injury and a deep pass interference on the defense on a duck thrown by quarterback. The NFL is officially back, baby. And I'm Al and Pickett, former Euler. And my concern is, can the Colts stop the rushing attack of the Ravens? We will discuss. Colts Nation rise up. It's the Colt Squad, everything Indianapolis Colts every week. Covering all the big hits and game-changing plays from the Circle City, the way only the locked-on podcast network can. It's time to squad up. The Colts Squado starts now. Welcome to the Colts Squad Show. Today's show brought you by Cal She for a limited time. Download the Calci app and use code locked on to get $10 when you trade $10.

I'm Derek Shultz, long-time indie sports talker. by a Notre Dame legend in a long time NFL running back Alan Pinkett, along with Locked on Colts daily host, Zach Hicks. Jake Arthur will return coming up here at a later show, as will our good friend and Locked on Colts hit host, Will Starlipper for our Sunday post-game show after the Colts debut for the 2026 season. As Zach had mentioned, the NFL season returned tonight,

and we've already got stuff to talk about as far as the NFL season is concerned. It officially returns for the Colts, though, on Sundays they play host of the Ravens at Lucas Oil State. We'll dive right into that matchup on tonight's show, including where the Colts can take advantage in this Baltimore matchup, a new center for the Ravens, how Inde carved up Jesse Minter last year when they were out in L.A., etc., etc. We'll talk about that in segment number one. What a win over Baltimore would mean to send a message that they're going to pick up where they left off pre-Jones injury. I mean, you guys have seen the national prognostications for the Colts, right? they're very tepid, tepid to bad.

I mean, a lot of people nationally expecting this to be a bottom 13. What a win over the Ravens would mean for the Colts, should they be able to pull it off this week to raise people's eyebrows and alert them to, hey, this is still the team from the first half of 2025 that's back now and healthy and better than ever. Segment number three are the first five weeks, the most important portion of the season for the Colts. And how many wins to feel good about where they are?

We all know this is an arduous stretch to open up the season. We'll talk about that coming up later on the show. And then Sleeper surprises Super Bowl picks. Always fun. We'll make sure to delete the evidence after the fact, after we make our Super Bowl picks because those always seem to go south. But we'll talk about that coming up here in segment number four. But Zach, I wanted to start here with the matchup, right?

This is the Wednesday show. For the Wednesday squad show, we're going to spend a lot of time talking about the upcoming opponent. And of course, in week one, it's the Baltimore Ravens, a team that the Colts are very familiar with. Where can they take advantage in your eyes in this Baltimore matchup, besides the fact that they've got a new center at starter and certainly Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner upfront are hoping to take advantage of that particular matchup. But besides that, kind of where else do you see where the Colts can potentially

take advantage, notably Shane Steichen? Yeah, I mean, starting on the offense side of the ball for the Colts, you know, this was a coaching staff that really eviscerated Jesse. Menter's defense last year. And honestly, if you want to expand that to just the defensive minds in charge of this Baltimore defense, he also tore apart the Dolphins in week one, which the Ravens Defense Coordinator came from the Dolphins this last season as well. So Shane Stuyken really had answers for both of these defensive minds that we're going to see here in Baltimore. Now, that's not a one-to-one comparison. We're not going to just see the exact same replica of what

happened in those games in this week one game. But a lot of what Jesse Mentor won to do last year with the Chargers was drop into quarters coverage, not really disguised too much of it over the course of the year, drop into quarters and have these match principles in quarters. And Stuyken was very comfortable just throwing the ball to the flats over and over and over and forcing these guys to come up and make tackles on Tyler Warren, make tackles on Michael Pittman Jr. And then when they did come up to try to make those tackles, then they isolated Alec Pierce

on the outside, had a couple deep shots to Pierce, had some one-on-one comebacks and curls on the outside to Pierce, and it was just a miserable experience for Mentor's defense and probably the worst defensive game that Minter called all last season just because there was just no answers for what the Colts were doing. So I think in terms of matchups, the Colts and Shane Stuyken have gotten the better of Minter in the past, and a lot of what Minter wants to do is something that Shane Stiking can take advantage of. He's a fairly static zone coverage-oriented defensive coach, and Shane I can just feast on those type of coaches over time. We've seen that time and time again. In terms of the Colts defense, you know, it's going to be a challenge because I do think the

Colts want to play a lot more man coverage this season, but there are a couple of quarterbacks you don't want to play man coverage against, and I would say Lamar Jackson is one of them. Like, you can still disrupt things if you do man coverage against him, but you have to be sure as hell in your rush lanes, rushing the passer, that he is not going to escape the pocket. Because if you bring six guys against a quarterback like Lamar and he gets out of the pocket, that could be a 60-yard touchdown run. That could be a 70-yard touchdown run. You just can't take that risk sometimes as a defense. So overall, though, I think just having the advantage of the Forrest Buckner and Grover Stewart versus their young interior, their overall offensive line, in my opinion, is not

one of the better ones in football. And if you're the Colts, maybe you're salivating a little bit at the thought of that, having, again, Grover Stewart and Buckner going against a bit of a weaker interior, and you need those guys to be wrecking balls. Because if the Colts can just get by in this game, rushing just four, or maybe occasionally bringing a fifth guy and zoning out the back end of the defense, that would be great, because if you have to go to man coverage, like I said, against Lamar, it could lead to some disastrous results. So overall, I do like how the Colts match up in this game, though. I think they have, as long as their starters are on the field defensively, at least, I think they have the advantage in the defensive

trenches, which is, I don't know how often we're going to say that this year. I think their defensive the backs match up well with these wide receivers. And then again, on the other side of the ball, the Colts offense last year was so lethal against Minter's defense. And I don't expect to see like this drastically different style of defense from Minter. I don't think he's going to draw up a whole new game plan based off of one opponent or anything like that. Like he'll do some different things.

I'm sure he'll pull out some man coverage concepts to really try to like get on these wide receivers. I think they're going to stack the box early and force Daniel Jones to throw the ball on them to really test that Achilles early in this game. But the Colts can answer that early test. I think they have a good advantage here against this Ravens defense. Well, I hope I don't sound too much like an echo. There are lots of things I agree with what you said. From an offensive standpoint, I think the Colts do have an advantage. First of all, Baltimore is a team that likes to play three linebackers. I'm sure that with the Colts sets, they'll probably bring in a nickel because three linebackers is just going to be a matchup made in hell for that particular defense.

And I can guarantee you that the one person that's watching that film from last year, the Charger film from last year, the one person who's watching more than anybody else is Mentor. trying to figure out how do I stop this guy. But, you know, when I was down in Westfield and watching practice, did get the opportunity to listen to Sauce Gardner talk about Shane Steichen and said, he said he's top three play caller in the league. So I think Shane's ability to pick apart a defense. I mean, he's a wizard. when it comes to, you know, calling the right play or having the right offense.

Now, the players have to follow through. The players have to execute. Can't have drop balls, can't have stupid penalties, and got to have people healthy. If Baltimore plays zone against the Colts, the Colts will blow them off the field. I'll just say that because the one thing, the one adjustment of, I think that mentor could make is they start squatting on somebody's routes because, yeah, whether it's quarters or any type of zone, you know, you still have a feel for where the receiver is going to break, where the receiver's going to set, you know, and I anticipate the

Colts will layer the routes so that they create an, you know, an over or under type of scenario for the defense have to make a choice. But I think with the playmakers of Colts have playing zone, I mean, Daniel Jones might throw for 350. So I do see an advantage with the offense because his offense is finally on all cylinders. The other thing that that happens is, you know, teams are geared up to stop Jonathan Taylor. You know, I mean, he, he, he rushes for all these yards, but he doesn't usually rush for him until the second half. So they waste a lot of time just trying to stack the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Colts aren't trying to run in the first half.

They're just trying to spread everybody out and get everybody tired. And then Jonathan Taylor is the hammer. Now, defensively, I don't know if the Colts have an advantage. I do like what you said, Zach, about the force Buckner and. Grover Stewart being there to sort of, you know, create a solid middle to stop someone running. But Lamar Jackson is the scariest quarterback to play in the NFL. You know, so the fact that this Colts defense does not have a history of putting pressure on the quarterback may not be a bad thing as long as everybody establishes lane integrity with their rush.

you don't have to get to Lamar, but if you can just conceal him, you know, just keep him in the pocket because he is so dangerous. And then I also wonder about, you know, the running of Derek Henry, although, you know, a little cat has been let out of the bag, you know, for as big as he is, don't try to tackle him, just try to knock the ball out, you know. And I think that has gotten in his head, now because he is a brutal runner and it just there's nothing more than he would like to have a DB try to square up on him and tackle him. But I think it's in his head now where sometimes ball security and thinking about the ball and holding onto the ball after you fumbled a few times, that takes over in your mind instead of getting that extra yard.

no, I need to hold on to the ball. That can take away from your ability to freelance out there running. So I hope that, you know, guys can have a swat at that ball and get in his head. And I think the Colts defense has the advantage in the defensive backfield, but I still see this Colts offense is one that's tight end reliant. They really like to, you know, feature those tight ends. and to me it's a little bit of bully ball that they're able to play. And, you know, what I mean about bully ball is they throw the ball to much bigger receivers

where much smaller DBs have to tackle them and just get it down the field. And I know they've got Zayflowers and some speed on the outside. But I think they sort of rely on trying to be. be physical with you, out physical you on offense. But I think the Colts clearly have the advantage in the defensive backfield covering those receivers. So it shapes up as a very, very interesting matchup. Yeah, I just wonder kind of what we're going to see that's different because there's a lot

of things different from, if we're just talking about the Stuyken mentor aspect of it, there's a lot of things different. Like this is a whole new team, you know, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson and, you know, he's a head coach and not a coordinator anymore. So you've got the offensive side and the defensive side as well. I know coaches have tendencies, Zach, but how much of what we're expecting to see on Sunday will be sort of tweaks to wholesale changes of what we saw in L.A. last week. Because I think it's easy to just say, well, Stuyken dumped on him in L.A., so that means this is going to repeat again. And I'm not saying that that's not going to happen because Shane Steichen is that good. But clearly, Jesse Minter has got different personnel to work with and some different

mentalities and tweaks to bring to the table this time around. Yeah, I mean, the biggest X factor is going to be Trey Hendrickson. You know, last year at this time in this game, the Chargers didn't have that bonafide, like top pass rusher that could just impact the game. They had a lot of injuries up front. Kalilmak was banged up for that matchup, but Chennauosu was a little bit out of just taken out of that game early. so the Chargers didn't really have that clear bucket getter at the defensive end spot in that game

where Trey Hendrickton is that player and that can be a huge difference in games like this. I will say though, I mean, the difference between like a Derwin James versus Kyle Hamilton, you know, I think it's a similar type of player that the Colts were able to scheme around last year. So overall, yeah, Minter is going to bring some adjustments to this. I think they're going to be pretty blitz heavy and I think they're going to play a lot of man coverage because, again, they're going to dare the Colts with Alec Pierce. and Daniel Jones to beat them early because those guys are coming off injuries. And they're going to dare them early like we saw with Wilson last year with the Dolphins in that

first game. They had like a blitz rate of like 48% against the Colts in the first game. The Colts answered the call in that one, but there were games later on where they didn't answer the call against the blitz. So they're going to come out here and be aggressive against this Colts offense, and it's going to be on the Colts to really match that energy. But if they can hit a big shot early in the game to Pierce or Downs or whoever, then I think that opens up everything and it can get it back to being what it was last year where mentor and them want to get back to playing some quarters and you know, you're going to be kind of stuck allowing the flat shots and there are the flats, uh, open and getting guys after the catch.

So I think the Colts can open up this game pretty well. It's just they got to answer the call when, when those blitzes come early and often. We all know that the national NFL prognosticators have been down on this year's Colts. How far would a win on Sunday over the Ravens go and showing that this indie team needs to be taken seriously. We'll discuss when the cold squad show returns next. This portion of the cold squad show brought you by Quo, spelled QUO, the business phone system built so you never miss a call for business. For businesses, every call can be an opportunity and missing one can mean missing a customer.

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It is NFL game week, regular season week, as the Colts prepare for the Ravens. And alongside Locked-on Colts Daily host, Zach Hicks and former NFL or Alan Pinkett, I'm Derek Schultz. Love to have you here. Thanks for everybody in the YouTube comments as well hanging out. I want to remind you as we always do to not forget to check out the Every Day or Club, ad-free episodes and access to a group chat with Jake, Zach, and other listeners of Locked on Colts. Just tap the link of the show notes or go to Locked on podcast. dot com slash every day or club.

So statement game, right? It's week one. We've fallen into this trap before where it's overreaction week kind of nationally as far as the results are concerned. I think the best example ever, and I'm reaching into the way back machine here, lawyer Malloy and the bills shutting out the Patriots in week one. I think that was in the 2003 season. It's like 38 nothing or something like that.

And of course the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl that year. And you thought at the time, oh boy, they're in some trouble here. So I understand that one game is one game is one game. Alan, you played, you know that better than everybody else, right? But there's something about this to me. It's the Ravens. Not that they're a Super Bowl favorite or anything like that, but when you look at most of the prognostications,

they have the Ravens, I think, firmly as a top third team and an upper echelon team in the AFC, if not the entire NFL. And I think a lot of people at the same time, those same folks, have the Colts, somewhere in the late teens to early 20s. Not a basement team, but in some cases, a bottom third team. And pretty universally, I've seen them as a bottom half team.

I've not seen anybody nationally, you guys can tell me if I'm wrong, that has the Colts in the upper half. So not that it matters what people are saying nationally after week one in the season, but how far could Sunday's game, if the Colts were to win, go in reminding people, Zach, of the first half 2025 team that we saw really kind of take the NFL by storm and not only be the most efficient offense in the NFL, but one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history through seven, eight weeks. Yeah, I mean, it would go a long way just optics wise, you know, getting fans back on board,

getting national media back on board with what this cult team could be. Ultimately, I don't think it means that much on the whole for the whole season. I mean, there's 17 games, right? They all matter exactly the same. That's just the nature of the beast. I guess you could say games against AFC teams matter a tiny bit more than games against NFC teams. But aside from that, yeah, you want to perform well in all these games. It's such a small sample size that every game matters. But yeah, the first game for sure, you want to start off on the right foot, get out there, 1-0, and make sure that people could remember what you were last season.

But for me, I always struggle with the week one game because I think it is just the most chaotic and just, it's the game, like, look, again, all these games matter this about the same, but in terms of, like, judging a team off their results in week one, I do think week one kind of matters the least. I mean, the Patriots lost to the Raiders in week one last year, and then they won 14 games and went to the Super Bowl. Like, it's such a chaotic week for football because teams are really trying to figure out who the heck they are, if anything, like trying to figure out what works, what doesn't.

Getting used to new play callers and new staffs, like, like the Ravens are going to be in this game. So I do think, like, there is an advantage to, like, hey, if you can pull out a win in this insanely chaotic Wild Wild West in the first game of the season, then yeah, it does mean a lot because you basically stole a win that, like, it's a coin flip in the first game. But outside of that, I don't put a ton of stock into it. It would be great to get a win, but it really matters just seeing the trends throughout the season.

So I know I'm coming at this from a very analytics mindset instead of like the emotional fan like yeah momentum carry the momentum into week two and week three and and just keep running it through like yeah that would be awesome and and the frank right quote or whatever like keep climbing that mountain would be great but ultimately you know do you can in week one and it's a long season and try to figure out your way after that but yeah i mean it would be great for vibes at least right for fans for national people just for talking heads like us it would be awesome for vibes to get a win in this first game against the Baltimore Ravens. And a team that I think, you know, they might start a little slow because they are adjusting

to a lot of new things. But I do think by the end of the year, the Ravens are going to be a pretty good football team. Well, I mean, let's consider now that if the Colts win this first game, it would be deemed an upset because Baltimore is a three and a half point favorite. And usually when you play at home, you're the three point favorite. So it would, I think it should be a motivating type of thing for the cults to, you know, for the national media and the bookies to doubt that what they did in the first half of the season last year was a fluke. But, you know, when I look at this game in the first five games, you know, I'd be happy if they were. two and three over that stretch. Three and two would be a bonus. But I would rather see them

ascending as the year goes along and not petering out. So I'm looking for them to get better as the season goes along and not really just, you know, throw everything at the Ravens to try and win this one game. Each game is important. I understand that. I think it would shock some people if the Colts were able to end up victorious in this particular game. And, you know, I think they've got the goods to be able to win, especially in offense. I think this team is going to make its hate, make its money on the offensive side of the ball. So if they can be that scoring machine, that I anticipate then should be a good day. But look, you haven't had Daniel Jones take a real snap yet.

The Forrest Buckner hasn't taken a real snap yet. And I know they're vets and they understand. But it's not playing any preseason. Sometimes preseason is played at one speed. And then in the regular season, that ramps up. you know, so to just rely on the fact that you're a veteran and you know what game speed is, no, you need to, yeah, as you say, Zach, you know, be in the spot where the bullets are flying, you know, so that you know what ramping up means. So there don't be somewhat of an adjustment. But I think the Colts are fine in the fact that this is Daniel Jones second year with this offense. you're going to get improved play from Tyler Warren because he knows this offense now. I think the Keenan Allen addition really makes this offense, you know,

one of those possibly unstoppable offenses. And like I said, if they play zone, if they play zone, Daniel Jones will have a field day. But if they do bring pressure, I think the culture in a situation is like, Yeah, bring it, you know, because we'll bust one, you know, and this office is designed to get the ball out quick anyway. You know, they're going to have to disguise their stuff because I think Daniel Jones is smart enough to see if they tip it one way or another, he'll make his adjustment and find the open guy. But it would mean a lot. I think the nation would be surprised if the Colts won, but they would temper their enthusiasm because it's the first game.

But, you know, remember last year when I came on, you remember the sequence. You want to win your first game. You want to win your home games. And you want to win your division. You do those things. All you want is a shot in the playoffs because anything can happen in the playoffs. But I'm not going to put all of my eggs in the first game basket because I would prefer for them to be learning in these first four or five games.

Usually it takes about four games for you to figure out who you are personality-wise. you know, I would rather see them ascending at the end. I would rather flip last year and have those last eight games played like the first eight games. I know it's 17. New math. But that's sort of where I sit. One thing I want to throw in there, though, too, is, again, with the first week being such a Wild Wild West, essentially, I really think that one of the deciding factors for early games will be continuity, right?

Right. And what we saw, what we're seeing tonight, for instance, with the Seahawks and Patriots, like, maybe this age is poorly, but we're seeing a disgustingly sloppy football game where both teams look horrendous in this game. Patriots are breaking in some new weapons on the offense, and they're still, like, kind of adjusting to what that's going to mean for their team this year. The Seahawks obviously are dealing with not having their good quarterback out there. They're having a bad quarterback out there instead, and that's leading some really sloppy play. So I think overall, though, just the continuity, like how many returning players do you have? Now, does it mean that much for the whole season? Maybe not. But I think in the week one game where things are just, again, so chaotic, having a little bit of continuity and having guys who know each other where, like, the Ravens are being breaking in a new coach,

new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, new some new things as well. Like, I do think that could be tough, a new center as well. I have a new center out there. I think that could be a bit tough for the Ravens. So I do think this can be a very close game. I would love to see the Colts come out on top. But again, I'm with Alan. Like, I prefer to study the last stretch of the season more than the first stretch of the season.

Even though, like, again, we saw some great things early last year from the Colts. Who knows what the second half would look like if they actually had a quarterback. They didn't. And it ended up falling on their face. So, yeah, I would love to see them start fast again. But I really want to just see them ascending towards the end of the year, which they haven't done since 2018. And you mentioned ascending towards. the end of the year. I mean, the best team of the Bowerd era started one in five, right? They lost their

opener Cincinnati, I think at home that year. If I remember right in 2018, and then, of course, second half of the season was like the direct opposite of the 2025 team. But I do think, guys, there's something to, I mean, I remember we all got together after the Miami game last year, and we were kind of like, holy crap, like what just happened here? And I think the expectations are higher for the Colts now than they were then, at least locally. But there is something to like that first impression, right? And even if it's some familiar faces like, you know, Daniel Jones was new last year. He's not new now, obviously.

Same for some other key players and things like that. I do think there's something to just kind of coming out and and banging your fist on the table in week one and doing it against a Baltimore team that pretty universally is regarded as a rock solid playoff team. and protecting your home field, like you said, Alan, and the importance of that. So, yeah, it's one of 17. And, Zach, I agree with you. Like, we overrate this stuff all the time.

So it's going to sound like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth. But part of me is kind of like, well, yeah, if the Colts are going to be who Carly Ursay Gordon and the Colts franchise essentially sold us into them being, which was the first half team of last year, then I'm expecting them to come out guns ablazin on Sunday and hit the ground running and being the team that they were through Halloween last year. Yeah. And one thing I will add to this is just like, I think part of why we got so excited last year at the Miami game is because the Colts hadn't won a season opener in like nine years. That too. Yeah. So good point. It's almost like the like the curse is off now. So I don't know

how big of an impact it would have really. Like again, I think it would go a long way for the Colts fans, right? Like I think the athletic did another poll again like they did last year. where last year we were the most pessimistic fan base. This year we were like the fifth most pessimistic fan base going into the season. So a slight improvement, but still very, very pessimistic going into the year. But I do think it would improve things if they win this week-one game. But again, like we saw last year, it's a long season. A lot of stuff and trials and tribulations coming up for this team.

It would be great to start with a win, but, you know, we still have a lot of football if they don't start with a win in this game. This game against Baltimore kicks off a very very very. difficult stretch, only two home games, several playoff favorites mixed in there, a trip overseas. Are the Colts already embarking on the most critical portion of their season starting on Sunday? We'll talk about that when the squad show returns next. This portion of the Colts Squad Show brought you by Fanduel. Welcome to your most rewarding NFL season ever, only on Fanduel. How rewarding are we talking?

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Rolling right along here, midweek edition of the locked on cold squad show. Appreciate you being here. I'm Derek Schultz, Sack Hicks. Alan Pickett is here as well. Jake Arthur will join us again in the future squad show. As will our buddy Will Star Lipper is we've got three to five, 60% full for our Colt Squad show tonight. So we're talking about this week one game against Baltimore.

That's really what we've been focusing on. And that's going to be a theme of our midweek show. Wednesday night, we're going to be kind of doing an opponent pre-year. review stuff and all of that throughout the year. But really, this is just one of a stretch of five. And this happened when we did the schedule release reaction show, right? Where you looked at the first five games, you thought, oh boy, you know, Baltimore at home at Kansas City in prime time on Sunday night football.

Houston, who is pretty much universally regarded as the AFC South favorite in that defense, Washington overseas. And then at Pittsburgh, which if you're a longtime Colts fan, you can play Pittsburgh on Jupiter. I don't care. Anytime the Colts play the Steelers, generally speaking, bad things happen. Those are the first five games this year. So while it matters that you're playing your best football in December and January and all of that, and we're a long way from that. I think a lot of people have circled this opening portion as what's going to tell you a lot about what this team is going to be, Zach. And so, I mean, I was kind of looking at this and thinking and maybe to distill it down

of this, you know, even five games. That's not even a third of the season, right? But if you're looking at these first five and you're saying yourself, okay, what do the Colts need to do here to feel good about where they are after five weeks? Do you have a number in mind? I know you're a process guy, so is it about how they look in these first five games? And then what do you think about just this opening stretch here overall? Yeah, I mean, overall, again, I think the process matters more than anything else.

And like you mentioned, it's five games out of the first. a long season and with that long, like, these are going to be five of the tougher opponents you play all year. Maybe not Washington, but I'm going to say that right now and they'll probably end up being the cold, so I don't want to be too crazy with that. But, like, you know, these are some of their tougher matchups, especially with the travel involved as well, like going to Kansas City, going all the way overseas against Washington, and then the quick turnaround back to Pittsburgh to play in a place that they've been cursed for a long time in playing at Pittsburgh. That is a bit of a tough turnaround for this team.

But I do think it's going to matter a lot more to the pundits and the fans and like the vibes more so than the actual season itself. But it really could leak into the locker room as well, right? You don't want to start 1 in 4 or 0 and 5 or anything like that because, again, that's when players start the finger pointing and that's when you start getting in your own head and maybe we're not that good of a team. So obviously, like every game matters, every win matters. And if you start, you know, in a whole 1 in 4, 0, 5, it is hard to climb out of that.

hole, right? Like we saw last year with the Colts when they started off so fast, it wasn't necessarily like, oh, they're this great team that's going to win a Super Bowl, but it was like now the margin for error is a lot easier down the stretch. Now, it didn't account for them having to go to a 40-year-old quarterback and playing the best teams in football and losing to all them down the stretch, but that's kind of the part of the early season schedule. Now, when it comes to this being the most important stretch of the season, I just don't think it is. The second half of the year is always the most important part of the season. How you finish. how healthy you are down the stretch and how you're playing down the stretch.

And we saw that last year. They didn't deserve to make the playoffs because they weren't healthy and they weren't playing good football down the stretch. And they were losing all these games. So, yeah, I want them to stay afloat in these early games, especially with the tough travel and turnaround. But, you know, it's hard to really put like a substantive, substantive number on it. Like, hey, win three games and we're good. When two games, we're good. Like, yeah, ideally you want to be at like two or three wins in this.

And, you know, then you can move from there and hopefully stay there. But I think process-wise, you know, if you're going to lose these games, keep them to one-score games, keep them to those, like, coin flip-type games. They'll be playing, like, good football, even if, again, if you lose to some crazy variance stuff, that is what it is. But, yeah, they can certainly come out of this positive. Like, I don't think these are insurmountable games. I mean, again, we talked about Baltimore.

I think they match up well with Baltimore. I have this is, like, a truly 50-50 game. Kansas City, yes, they have Pat Mahomes. but I really think people should start looking at that roster. That roster is in rough shape. Now, going to Kansas City is going to be tough, but again, they might be starting an undrafted free agent that left tackle in that game as well against the Colts.

So I would certainly advise people to go check out that team. Like, it's still Pat Mahom, still a challenge, but they trade away Trent McDuffie. They didn't really add much to the roster. It's a roster that's in some really rough shape right now. but yeah the big turnaround with Washington and Pittsburgh will be the big test for this team. Like how do they respond to that? If they can really gut through those two games, I think that they'll be in good shape going forward.

But all this to say again, ultimately, whatever they start early in the season, it is what it is. But I want to see how they finish the season. Because like I mentioned in the last segment, they have not finished a season strong since 2018. Maybe 2020 they finished it fairly well. And they were a good team going to the playoffs against the bills. but it really has been since 2018, they haven't faded down the stretch, whether it's injuries, whether it's poor play, whether it's poor coaching, whatever it is. They have fallen off down the stretch each and every season, no matter who the coach is, right?

No matter who the quarterback is, I want to see them ascending late. So for me, again, I want to see success all phases of the season, but I am most intrigued with the late half of the season, what team they are in week 16 compared to what team they are in week one. that's going to be more important to me than the first five weeks. Well, winning is contagious, but so is losing. And when you become addicted to winning, then the details matter. You pay attention more.

And it's just like anything, you win, you have more confidence, you execute so much better. When you lose, you get in a situation where you say, oh, here we go again, and you just have a losing mentality. The thing I like is the schedule is very interesting. So it's one of those you feel challenged. With these first five games, your manhood is going to be challenged. And are you going to rise to that occasion or not? Are you going to use the excuse that it is a long season?

Or are you going to be detail-oriented? and do everything possible to win in all of those games. And like I said, it takes about four games for you to figure out how you're going to scheme against the team. If what you're doing is really working, you know, you become acclimated to, you know, how you go about beating a team. And it takes a little while for that to happen. But it can happen because they've got the weapons to do it.

and I'll say it again. I'd rather see him ascending. But I think a win would be three and two. And I'm not saying, you know, who they would beat, because I think they can beat every single one of them, you know, under the right circumstances. But they could also lose every single one of them under the right circumstances. And one of the things that they were, you know, so indignant about was,

getting younger and faster. And part of the reason to get younger is guys that have been here that are used to losing in Pittsburgh and used to losing in Jacksonville, got to get them out of here and have guys that haven't experienced, you know, I don't know anything about no damn Jacksonville, you know, and it's another team. Let's go in and play and let's beat them. Let's, you know, beat that streak. And I say that, knowing that a trip to Pittsburgh when I was playing with the Oilers or a trip to Cincinnati, there was always something quirky that was going to happen.

But we still won our share of those games. But it was just, it was a team that was motivated to win and a team that wanted to change history. And youth, a lot of times, you know, you'll have. that exuberance and enthusiasm to go in and make amends for what past teams have done and remind folks. This is last year's Colts team. This is a totally different deal. You know, we got new guys in here, and they had no memory of the bad feeling it is to be

in the stadium. And so I'm going to count on some of that youthful exuberance to try and carry him through some of these games. but every single one is winnable, but you still want to put yourself in a position where you are growing as the season goes along. Yeah, I mean, I agree with Zach in the sense that, like look at the last five games of the season.

At Philly, at Tennessee, Cincinnati, at Cleveland, Jacksonville. You've got two division games in there. You only have one in this first stretch, right? And when you look at those opponents, I mean, Cincinnati is a sleeper, kind of sexy Super Bowl run dark horse pick. Jacksonville at home. I know it's Tennessee, right, but you're in Nashville at Philadelphia,

which is where you want to be. I think that stretch probably will tell us just as much as these first five game stretches. But at the same time, I, what I want to, I think these first five games and what I want to see is that it can be a real bellwether, I think, for the rest of the season. And had the Colts remained healthy, I do think what they, how they performed in first half of last season was an indicator of who they were far more than the team that we saw kind of fall apart in the second half. You know, this narrative that, well, the Colts started seven

and one or eight and two and they didn't beat anybody. They beat some teams in there. They beat Denver and they dunked on Denver. That defense was elite last year and they creamed them in that game. I mean, the only thing that really stopped the Colts offense against the Broncos was Shane Stuyken deciding to settle for a 68-yard field goal. You know, that's the only thing that really stopped them in that game and ended up working out, thankfully. You know, you look at the Chargers game, kind of the same thing. You look at the Rams game. If not for the A.D. Mitchell faux pa, right?

That's a whole different game, too. The usual, I think model of success for teams is dunk on the bad teams and be competitive with the good teams. And if you look at the first half last year, the Colts did that. So, yes, it was the dolphins. and there were some great in the titans there were some crap teams on there but they savagely beat those teams down and that's what a good team does so there are no gimmies here right there's no there's no there's no Tennessee you know Tennessee is the ultimate free space for the colts just really that's been the case for the entire century but there's no free space here but

I'm just looking at how they look in these games against Baltimore against Houston who we expect to be playoff teams I'm still going to expect Kansas City to be a playoff team because of the homes. I understand the roster and things like that. It's Kansas City in Kansas City in prime time. I still think that there is something to that game and how the Colts look in that game. So more than putting a number on it and saying, well, they got to go four and one or they got to go three. Alan, I agree with you. I would love if the Colts go three and two. I would feel great about that. But to me, it's more about kind of how they look because what made me a believer in the 2025 Colts was how they looked in the first half of last year. Yeah, I just think at the end of the day, like, again, how these games are played matters.

At the end of the day, like, obviously it's a result-driven league, and you want the more positive results, but when we look at these things analytically, like one-score games are 50-50 toss-ups. If you lose a couple one-score games early in the season, that usually means that you're a pretty good team that is competitive. At least if you're losing one-score games to good teams, right, which we're assuming some of these teams are going to be. So I'm not saying, okay, come out here and lose by one-score in each of these games, but as long as these are competitive back and forth bouts and you know whatever happens happens i can feel good about the colts post the first five games now if they come out here and they lose by 20 to the ravens lose by 15 to the chiefs that'll change drastically my thoughts on

this team because if you're losing losing by multiple scores in the NFL to anybody that is a very concerning sign you know like one or two multiple score losses are one thing like i think the colts had two multi-score losses last year but once you get into like everyone's beating you by multiple scores when you lose, that is when the sign of the wheels are kind of falling off a little bit. So, you know, there's a lot of things to analyze, and we'll analyze them as we go in these first five weeks. But overall, I just want to see them be a tough competitive football team. Whatever the results end up being, like we'll see. But, you know, just kind of want to see the process here early in the season and see if they can at least start off on the

right foot. Like, I want to see at least a win in the first two games, you know, one against the Chiefs or the Ravens, I think would be important for them to start the season. We've talked ad noxium about what the Colts may do this season, but how do we feel about the rest of the league? We're even going to put our Super Bowl picks. We'll do it all when the Colts Squad Show returns for a final time next. This portion of the Colts Squad Show brought you by our pals at Calci before the season even kicks off. Everyone's making predictions. Who wins the division?

Who makes the playoffs? Who's lifting the trophy at season's end? On Calci, America's number one prediction market platform, you could trade those predictions in a live market. will the Colts make the playoffs? That's the number one question, right? Well, they reached that bare minimum bar that we've been talking about to retain Chris Bauer and chain Stuyken. As of today, Indianapolis is at 38%. They've hovered around that 40% over the past couple of weeks. That means that a $100 trade would pay out over $250 if the Colts got to an 18th game and made the postseason for the first time since that weird

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Download the Calci app. Use code locked on to get $10 when you trade. $10. KALS-H-I, KAL-S-H-I, Cal-She, trade on anything. 18 and over only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. CalChi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values, and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see calcite.com slash regulatory. We're back for a final time. Locked on Colts Squad shows. Zach Hicks Alan Pinkett and Derek Schultz. Thanks so much for being here.

So obviously this is a cold show and the show that Zach and Jake do every day, locked on culture first listen every day, is a cold show. But we're talking about the NFL as well on this show. And a new NFL season has begun tonight with the Seattle Seahawks, the defending champions taking on New England Patriots as we speak right now during this live stream. The fun thing about the NFL season is that it's always fun to make predictions and then go back and look at how horribly, horribly wrong those predictions were. but I wanted to kind of go around the room and kind of just talk about teams outside of the Colts,

teams that you think that, hey, people are sleeping on this team or, you know, Zach, for instance, you said Kansas City is a team that you're down on because of the roster. Who's a team that we're up on? Let's kind of start there, Zach, you know, somebody that non-cults category, right, that you're looking at some of the national prognications and you think, this is not quite right. This is not where I would have them. Does anybody jump out to you?

I feel like I'm pessimistic. on a lot of teams this year. I feel like I'm pessimistic on like half the teams this season. But then when I start like rating them, I'm like, I can't put every, I can't put 28 teams in the bottom half of the league. So what am I supposed to be doing here? I have no clue. Like, because I just think that there's so many like regression points with some of these teams. I think there are just a lot of concerns. And maybe that just speaks to the depth of like the NIL is like washing out of the league, you know, and just making it so like you have. these concerns with a bunch of different teams. But I think in terms of teams that I think could

be better than we expect, I do kind of like the Dallas call that we're seeing from a lot of these people, which sounds horrible for me to say as a person who grew up as a Washington fan, but getting like a real defensive coordinator in there and Christian Parker, who I think is going to be pretty solid for them, as well as returning a lot of those skill position players on offense that were so good for them last year. Now do I think they're going to win a Super Bowl, probably not. I think we've seen enough of Dak Prescott struggling in the playoffs to where that is certainly a thing. But I do kind of like them. I think I kind of like the 49ers as well, but everyone gets hurt there every other day. So I don't know. Like they just keep getting banked.

Like they just lost a defensive tackle and practice for the whole season. So maybe they'll never escape that curse there when it comes to them. Looking at other teams, I, I, I, I do think the Ravens by the end of the season are going to be a really good team. By the end of the season, I do think it's going to be a bit of an issue early in the season for them because they are going to be going through this adjustment period. But I do like mentor a lot as a coach, and I think that they're going to really find their way late in the season, and they could be a surprise team that certainly makes a big push there late in the year.

Outside of that, though, I don't know if I have any teams I'm more optimistic on. I'll say the teams I'm a little bit more pessimistic on, though, like I think the Chargers I'm pretty pessimistic on I just don't like here's the thing like Justin Herbert has been really fine with his counting stats the last couple years but the overall efficiency numbers have been way below average and I think that's hurt their offense and he kind of to me reminds me a lot of like Josh Allen before Allen became an efficient quarterback as well and I think Herbert is still just teetering on that like he's like he's a social media quarterback in a sense where we love the highlight throws but sometimes the snap to snap stuff is

a bit of a struggle. And now they're losing Minter, who was a big part of their success last year, coaching that defense. I know the Colts has success against them, but they were very good against other teams. So I am a little bit concerned about the Chargers. The Broncos in their one-score game luck last season was like, they were like 12 and 1 in 1-score games, or 11-1 and 1-score games last year. I think the Colts were one of their only losses in a one-score game last season. I have the number here. Let me pull it up. It was Broncos were 11 and 2 in 1-score games last season. Wow.

Remember the last time we saw a team with that big a discrepancy in one score games was the Chiefs a couple years ago. They were like 12 and 1. And what were they last year? They were 1 in 9 in 1 score games the following season. So the 1 score game luck is a true thing. It is something that I think a lot of people would like betting markets, like really do study and look at for seeing that turnaround there.

So I do think that, you know, a team like the Broncos is a very clear regression candidate. And also the Steelers. Like I do think the Colts are going to struggle with them. I'm not trying to downplay that opponent early. But the Steelers, man, they were seven and three and one score games last season. Now they're going to, you know, they don't have the Mike Tomlin magic, right, that they had for the voodoo magic that Mike Tomlin had, right, where he could always somehow pull off these crazy wins that they didn't deserve.

They've lost that now. And I, you know, they don't throw the ball down the field very often. Rogers does a lot of these quick screens that are just ugly and just like, when they go against decent defenses, it's a struggle. So I'm not very high on them either. But yeah, I would say, like, the teams, I think, are kind of like sleepers. Oh, Detroit Lions, that's another good one in there. I forgot to mention them.

They were banged up last year. So I do think the Lions are going to be a very competitive team. But, yeah, like Lions, 49ers, I think that they can probably overperform expectations. And I do think the Chiefs could return to the playoffs this year just because Pat Mahomes, right? Not really because of anything else, but mostly because it's Pat Mahomes. I think the roster is rough, but they were won in, like they had 10 one score games last year when Mahomes was really all they had.

So I do think that they're going to bounce back this year in a big way, and we'll see where that ultimately finished it. So I know I said a lot there, but I do think 49ers, lions are teams to watch, and Chiefs I do think probably get back to the playoffs, despite their roster being in a really rough shape right now. Well, for me, the team that's head and shoulders above everybody is the right. Rams. I mean, they've got everything. And you think about it, they add Miles Garrett, who led the league and Sachs last year on a team where they went what, four and 12, four and 13, something like that.

So now he's going to be on a team that they will be passing the ball in the fourth quarter to try and win the game against the Rams. And then Aaron Donald comes. coming back, you know, that's just going to be a formidable opponent. And, you know, fortunately, you know, on the offensive side of the ball, you know, the older you get playing in the NFL, the smarter you get, you know, and their quarterback, to me, has seen every defense, has seen every kind of look, knows how to adjust on it. And, I mean, they got playmakers on the outside. The Rams are just a solid, solid team. I don't want to believe that the Cowboys are going to be good,

but they've ruined many of Thanksgiving for me when I was growing up. But I feel like they're going to be good because Jerry Jones isn't talking. So I think they're quietly optimistic there. I think Philly is always going to be tough. And you may see Philly explode because there's not that feud between A.J. Brown and J.L. Hertz anymore. So those are my NFC teams. I always expect for San Francisco to be around.

And as long as Seattle has a defense, if they can get their quarterback back, then they can be scary. On the AFC side, I think that it's put up or shut up time for Buffalo. I think they have a good team. I still see holes in Buffalo, and I think they have the talent to make it to the Super Bowl, but they got this Buffalo curse. And it rears his head at the wrong time all the time. Steelers, to me, I still harking back to Ben Rothlisberger, and that's the type of quarterback who can win your games for the Steelers.

I mean, Aaron Rogers is, I don't know, maybe too silky smooth, not Pittsburghy enough, you know, hard-nosed enough. and yes, he throws one of the prettiest balls in the league. But from the mentality standpoint, you know, Green Bay is one mentality. Pittsburgh is another. And I don't think that with the players they have, it's necessarily that black and gold mentality, defense-oriented, you know, destroy you.

Cincinnati could be scary. if Joe Burrow stays healthy, Cincinnati could be scared. But we just have to see what their defense is like, you know, they're going to have to win games 47 to 45. Other than that, I can't really think of teams that really, really stick out to me. Kansas City is one that I think there'll be a contender solely because of the quarterback and in all levels of football, you either have that guy or you don't have that guy. And when you have that guy, you always give yourself a shot.

And then, you know, the teams that are in the Colts Division, you know, I think Jacksonville is ascending. But we will see the Texans, you know, I think they're just a team that can out physical you. Don't think that much of their offense, but they still find a way to get in the end zone. So there's definitely parity in the league this year, which is going to make it very, very interesting. But the team that stands out the most to me that I anticipate winning it all on their home field in the Super Bowl is the L.A. Rams. Yeah, and it's hard to go against that. Dallas, it would be cool. And I guess this wouldn't be cool in the sense that I hate the Cowboys.

But it would be cool for, you know, Dak Prescott and all of that. They haven't made the conference championship game in 30 years, which is a really long drought. Like, I mean, we're talking about basically every franchise, most of the franchise in the league have made it multiple times in that Spanish. This oddity that I'm fascinated with. You have to go back to the Aikman, Emmett, you know, Michael Irvin, like the peak level Cowboys team. So the last time that they were in a conference championship game. but I think I could see it there. Cincinnati, I'm just always against the sexy pick and the injury variance there with Burrow.

I think you're relying on a lot of things to go right when it comes to that. You know, I think Philadelphia is going to bounce back. That was a team that made the playoffs last year, but they just, they had a weird season. And they never looked very good. I mean, Zach, you talked about the close games. They won a ton of close games. They kind of lifted into the playoffs and lost immediately. But I think that they're.

are going to kind of bounce back this year. But we're in the final minute of the show, so let's just go around the room Super Bowl picks-wise. Alan, you already said the Rams, are you picking them to win the whole thing? And if so, who they matched up against? Rams and I'll throw this out there. Oh, they're in the same division.

Oops. I was going to say Detroit Lions, but they're both in the NFC. I still can't see Buffalo going. And I don't want to give it to the top. Texans. I'll say Buffalo. Rams versus Buffalo.

I mean, if it's not Buffalo this year, Zach, then like, right? I don't know who else. Well, I don't know who else it's going to be. Because I think the Ravens year is probably next year. I think Jacksonville is sneaky because they at least have the quarterback, well, sometimes the quarterback, and they have the defense and the skill position players.

But their O line is just rough. And that's what I think he told me back. Houston doesn't have the. offense. I don't think the Chargers are going to have the defense. Kansas City doesn't have the roster. It's got to be this year, Buffalo. Like, it really has to be this year. Like, there's really nothing in your way. Maybe, I mean, New England, I think, can be in their way, but New England, again, I think there's going to be some regression there. They want a lot of one-score games against bad teams last year. So I'll say Buffalo over, let's go with the most fun Super Bowl,

just because these Super Bowl picks always age poorly anyway. Let's do Buffalo over Detroit in there, just because I think that would be the most fun Super Bowl to watch. I was going to say Buffalo over to Detroit just because by default, you would have a long suffering fan base, right? Knock it out. But I'll say Buffalo, Philly. And let's just hope that it's not Philly. I'm kind of tired of Philly.

Thanks so much for joining us on this latest edition of the Colts Squad Show. We are your place for post game Colts reaction. Our Colts squad shows will follow each and every Colts game this season, including this Sunday, of course, we'll be with you after the Colts and Ravens wrap around 430 or so on Sunday afternoon. and don't forget about our usual midweek slot as well. Wednesdays 9.30 p.m. So keep it locked here on Locked on Colts. As always, Jake and Zach, every day are your first listen on Locked on Colts all season long. Be sure to follow at Locked on Colts on socials and add at Colts underscore hit for our Will Star Lipper guest content for Colts hits.

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