Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - DEBATE: Philip Rivers vs. Riley Leonard, Which Quarterback Gives the Colts the Best Chance?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Philip Rivers or Riley Leonard, who should the Colts roll with down the stretch? Let's get to it. You are Locked-on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello, everyone.

Starting point is 00:00:23 My name is Zach Hicks, your resident film nerd of horseshoe huddle.com. Welcome to Locked-on Colts, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. now the number one sports podcasting network. Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit FanDuel.com and play your NFL live bets all season long.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Today we're going to dive into the topic of Philip Rivers versus Riley Leonard. We have pretty comparable showings from both of these players through the two games that we've seen them. Who is the better option for the Colts over these final couple weeks? We know it's going to be Philip Rivers, but should they have made the change to Riley Leonard? We're going to dive into that to start off today's show. then we're going to talk about some bright spots that the Colts have had during this losing streak. I know a lot of people don't want to keep the positivity during a big stretch of negativity with this team,

Starting point is 00:01:08 but there are some bright spots we should look at and at least dive into from recent play. And then what to watch for the rest of the season. The Colts playoff hopes are dwindling. They still have three more chances to get a win or get two wins to maybe open up those chances a little bit more. But what to watch down the stretch, return of some players, some problems, promising young players. We're going to dive into all that in the final segment to close out today's show. Let's dive into the main topic of the hour, of the hour, which is Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard. Now, it's very rare in the NFL to have two pretty

Starting point is 00:01:41 comparable sample sizes when it comes to talking about two players. Typically, it's, you know, one player versus another player, but one player played against a more defense or had more players out and so forth when it comes to that. But for these two guys, I mean, Riley Leonard played most of the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. and their top 10 defense, a very good defense. Philip Rivers played the entirety of the game against the Seattle Seahawks, which, again, another very good defense, top 10 defense. So I think this is as close as you're going to get when it comes to these two

Starting point is 00:02:11 quarterbacks and comparing them. So just looking at their raw numbers in these two showings, pretty close together in terms of just their passing yards and their passing total. Riley Leonard against the Jaguars coming in and relief after that first quarter or towards the end of that first quarter, he went 18 of 29 for 145 yards and an interception in that game. He also ran for a touchdown late in garbage time. So he was one touchdown and one turnover on 145 yards passing.

Starting point is 00:02:40 Philip Rivers against Seattle Seahawks when he started the entirety of the game was 18 of 27 for 120 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. So overall, again, the numbers are pretty similar between these two quarterbacks, a little bit of, you know, a little bit more accuracy for Rivers slightly. but for the most part, these numbers are pretty comparable. Now, when you go into kind of more of the advanced stats and more into the deeper picture, that's where we get to see a little bit of a difference between these two quarterbacks. You know, for Riley Leonard and his showing, he had three turnover worthy plays,

Starting point is 00:03:10 according to pro football focus versus two big time throws. He was sacked the one time, and that one time resulted in the safety for the Jaguars defense. And when he was back to throw, he faced a 41% pressure rate and had a 2.68 second time to throw in that game. Compared that to Philip Rivers, who only had one turnover worthy play, which was his interception, but he had zero big time throws. You know, he didn't really attend many passes past 10 yards down the field. He was also sacked one time, according to PFF, and that was the one time he slipped on the logo and fell down in the pocket. He only faced a 22% pressure rate, and he had a much quicker time to throw at 2.41 seconds on his passes. So

Starting point is 00:03:49 we can kind of see the differences in the offenses between these two quarterbacks, where with Riley Leonard, he was asked to throw the ball down the field a little bit more. He faced a higher pressure rate as a result because he was holding on to the ball for, you know, a couple ticks longer in that game. And as a result, there was a little bit more volatility. You know, the sack you took was a safety, a big time negative play for an offense. He had three turnover worthy plays, but you also got some big time throws from him. Where with Philip Rivers, you got more ball control, more just moving forward and keeping the

Starting point is 00:04:18 efficiency and keeping the success rate. But it limited the big time plays for the offense. zero big time throws, not many explosives, ball was out quick. The pressure rate was low, but that's because the ball was out so quick and they were throwing so many screens and so many quick passes. So, you know, when we look at these two quarterbacks, they're just drastically different and at different phases in their career. Riley Leonard, a rookie out of Notre Dame, you're going to get a lot more volatility in his

Starting point is 00:04:43 game. He'll hang back there in the pocket a little bit more. He'll run around a little bit more. He'll force things off platform if he has to to create those big plays, where Philip Rivers, If the first read isn't there, he's getting right back to that running back. We saw Amir Abdullah have his season high in catches this past week. And pretty much any time Abdullah was on the field, he was a target in the passing game because that's what Rivers wanted. We saw the offensive line probably play a little bit better under Rivers as well, not only because of the time to throw,

Starting point is 00:05:11 but because of his experience calling the protections, sliding the offensive line, picking up against blitzes. And that's even with Rivers having two backup offensive tackles compared to Riley Leonard having the one backup offensive tackle on the right side. of his offensive line. So, you know, we see the differences in these two quarterbacks. Leonard certainly has the more live arm because pretty much any quarterback in the NFL is going to have a more live arm than Rivers right now. Rivers arm is very much shot out there. So really for the Colts, when it comes to looking at these two options, it's about what do you want? You know, do you want the volatility of Riley Leonard where, yes, we can probably move the ball at like on bigger plays with Leonard? Leonard will push the ball down the field. He can

Starting point is 00:05:52 push the ball down the field so we can run a little bit more play action, more under center stuff with Leonard, and kind of do what was working early in the season, but we're going to have to take some more sacks in here, maybe some more turnovers in here than what we'd have with Leonard, or we go to the safer option, which is Phillip Rivers, where we're not going to have many sacks. We're not going to have many turnover type plays or turnover worthy plays, but we're not going to have the explosive. So the margin for error is so small because any play that goes backwards or has a zero-yard

Starting point is 00:06:22 gain might effectively end the drive. But we are just going to be moving forward or falling forward on most plays to get us into those third and manageable situations and maybe turn out some field goals and some touchdowns. So it's like picking between two bad options essentially because neither of these are how you want to operate in the NFL. But to the lesser degree, it's kind of like the same discussion we had at the end of the offseason between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson. Now, again, Jones had a much higher ceiling than what Rivers offers. And same with I would say even with Richardson compared to what Leonard would offer, where Richardson gave you even more explosive plays,

Starting point is 00:06:57 but maybe even some more volatility, where Daniel Jones a little bit higher a floor. But again, his whole appeal was he's not going to turn the ball over as much. He's going to move the offense with high success rate and high efficiency, but you'll lose some of those explosive plays that you would get with Richardson. We're seeing kind of the same conversation play out with Rivers versus Leonard, and we're going to see the same decision made by Shane Steichen in this Colts offense, where they're going to go with the guy who's going to,

Starting point is 00:07:22 keep the success rate high, keep the efficiency high, and mitigate the turnovers and mitigate the mistakes on the offense. Is that the right decision? I don't know. I don't really know that there's a great decision either way here. And you could talk me into either side. I will say the Colts were able to grind that game down to a halt against the Seattle Seahawks, make that just a very ugly, slow-paced football game. And that was how they were able to have a chance against a much more talented Seattle Seahawks team is because they were able to move the ball forward constantly, because they were able to pin Seattle deep for most of that game and limit them to field goals, that the Colts were, you know, mere seconds away from winning that game on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:08:00 So the Colts firmly believed that having a more efficient offense rather than an explosive offense is the way to victory this season, which is why they're going with Phillip Rivers. But that's kind of the big comparison between those two quarterbacks. I mean, honestly, for me personally, if the Colts still had their first round pick, I'd say throw Riley Leonard out there because if he, if he, If he crashes and burns, you're going to get a better pick out of it. And if he doesn't crash and burn, then maybe you get more explosive offense and more points on the board. But because you're just playing for a puncher's chance of making the playoffs and then seeing what you can do from there,

Starting point is 00:08:34 I think you probably do go with Rivers just because, like, if your defense is going to play the way they've played recently where they're not giving up many touchdowns, they are holding teams the three. And you can get into these field goal battles with teams, maybe just having the more efficient offense that's not going to turn the ball. over as much is the way to go. But, you know, the Colts don't have great options. They're down to their third quarterback, their third and fourth quarterback or whatever you want to call Rivers in this situation. So if you go around to all 32 teams in the league, no one's going to have the right answer when they're down to this situation. But for the Colts, they're picking efficiency over volatility or, I guess, upside if you want to call Riley Leonard upside as well,

Starting point is 00:09:13 because there is some big play potential down the field with him. But they're going to go with the efficiency and the boring style of offense that could potentially get wins if they're able to grind these teams down to boring, ugly football. That's the way that they see it going forward. So in a way, it is a similar decision to the Richardson versus Daniel Jones decision. And the Colts are picking the consistency option. They're picking the efficiency and just moving forward option. And it's on the rest of the guys on the offense to continue making plays, make explosives from these short passing games, and turn them into touchdowns. because we're certainly not going to get rivers just slinging it 30 yards down the field going forward.

Starting point is 00:09:51 It's going to be a lot of the same under 10-yard passing game, and that's the option the Colts are choosing down the stretch here. But coming up, guys, we're going to move past the quarterback conversation. We're going to talk all about just some bright spots I've seen recently. It's not a ton because the Colts are in the middle of a pretty big losing streak, but there have been some bright spots that I really want to throw some recognition towards and really discuss here in this next segment. But first, NFL Sundays move fast, one big play, and suddenly everything feels different.

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Starting point is 00:11:30 the number one sports podcast network. We can't thank you guys enough for that. Now, we're going to bring a little bit of positivity to this Lockdown Colts episode, which is a rarity, especially in shows that feature me and not me and Jake or just Jake. You know, it's tough for me to bring the positive.

Starting point is 00:11:46 You guys know I'm a pessimist by nature, but we're going to dive into some of the bright spots with this Colts team over these recent weeks. Now, I think the biggest one has been JT. Tuamoloow, kind of emerging in his limited snaps. Now, he's still not seeing too many snaps in his last three games. He only has 39 pass rushing reps. So again, not a ton of looks out there on defense. But on those 39 pass rushing reps, he's created seven pressures to, quarterback hits and five hurries in this past game. He had three pressures and 16 pass rushes. So we are seeing a young player who was a healthy scratch early in season, who had

Starting point is 00:12:26 to earn playing time through injuries in front of him and through just grinding it out in these practices, kind of earn the trust and kind of develop a little bit as a pass rusher. There are still some growth areas needed in his game, still just the ability to disengage from offensive linemen in front of him and create true sacks or true Q. B hits that aren't on these like plays where the guy where the quarterback's holding it for so long, but we are seeing some nice progression out of the first year pass rusher. And I think going into next year as a guy who can rush inside and out and play a little bit more on defense, I think we're going to see some real growth from him.

Starting point is 00:13:03 So I'm really liked how he's developed throughout the season. I think he's looking a lot quicker and more decisive down the stretch here. And I think if Daniel Jones was healthy and we were looking at a potential playoff team here with this Colts team, I would say that he would be. an X-Factor type player going into the playoffs as a guy like, hey, we get him a couple more snaps, and I think he can make an impact. But regardless, we have three more games to see if he can continue this hot stretch he's been on.

Starting point is 00:13:27 Hopefully he can get a couple sacks in here and really just round out that first season for him. But JT2 and Moloa, I think he's played some really good football as of late. And I want to see the Colts reward him with a couple more snaps here and there. I know Taekwon Lewis missed his last game, which is why he was able to see nearly 30 snaps in this one. But I want to see him be able to get more snaps and the game, even if Lewis is healthy. I want to see JT. To him, Lowell have a real role on this defense because he's earned it in recent weeks. Another rookie player that we need to highlight,

Starting point is 00:13:56 though, Jalen Travis, the right tackle who started this past game, made his first career start in the NFL, only allowed two pressures in 29 pass blocking attempts against a very good Seattle Seahawks front seven. And as of this point in the year, I mean, he's had over a hundred snaps played on offense because the Colts were blowing out so many teams early in the year and because he saw relief against the Jackson with Jaguars and he started this last game. So he's over 100 snaps. And as of right now, he's the sixth highest graded rookie offensive lineman in the NFL to at least hit that benchmark of corner pro football focus. I think his overall film has been solid. I don't think it's anything like special to write home about. But he's a guy where he's so

Starting point is 00:14:39 explosive and so big and so physical that it feels like it's too hard for him to fail in the NFL. Like there are issues in this game. The technique can still use a little bit more refining. Leverage is always going to be a big issue with him because of his size. Like just players getting lower than him and driving him off his spot is going to be something that he gets to work through. But because he's so explosive, because he's so big, he's just difficult to get around for defensive linemen. So I think he's always just going to be tough for defenders to handle. and I think he's going to have a very high floor as a pass protector in this league as a result. So he's got a big test in front of him.

Starting point is 00:15:16 He's going to start the rest of the season for the Colts, the final three games of the year, and probably further than that if the Colts are able to squeak into the playoffs. So I'm liking what I'm seeing so far. Jacksonville game was really solid from him. I followed up with another really solid performance here against the Seattle Seahawks. So those two rookies, Jalen Travis and J.T. Tuamolo, I think we're seeing them hit their stride here late in the season. they're getting that auditioned for next year, for bigger roles next year. And so far, both guys are doing very well in their auditions.

Starting point is 00:15:44 So shout out to both those guys. Hopefully they can continue this positive momentum and carry it into the off season and then have the off season of their lives and come in ready for a big role next season. But I really like what I'm seeing from both of these guys. And hopefully that can influence some decisions for next year for this Colts team. Going on more of a broader topic, though, with this Colts team, their run defense is surging right now, which is really weird to say because DeForest Buckner has been out since before the by week, but since the by week, the Colts have had arguably

Starting point is 00:16:16 the best run defense in football, if not top five run defense in football. I know the overall yards have been high because teams have just been running it a lot against the Colts because other teams have been leading for a lot of these games. But the Colts currently are number two defense in rush EPA per play and six in rush success rate against since their buy week in week 12. Running backs are only rushing for 3.3 yards per carry since the buy, 103 rushes and only holding those running backs to 3.3 yards per carry. I think in particular we're seeing some really strong play from Grover Stewart, from Jermaine Pratt, from Zaire Franklin in the run game. And they've been very disrupted. They've been forcing a lot of

Starting point is 00:16:57 tackles for a loss, a lot of negative plays for opposing offenses, and as a result, we're seeing the run defense kind of click on a higher level than it did even earlier in the season when DeForest Buckner was in the lineup. So I wish the past defense was as effective. I mean, that's where we're really seeing the impact of not having DeForest Buckner. His injury has left them without that high volume, high-octane pass rusher, and we're really feeling that in that part of the game. But in run defense, they picked up the slack by just being aggressive as heck down here and just getting after it. And we're seeing Grover Stewart play some really good football. Laotu's had some really good run defense reps as well. And the two linebackers,

Starting point is 00:17:35 I think, have played some good ball in that regard as well. So, you know, defense is still a long way from being fixed. They need health on the corners, health on the interior defensive line, and maybe a little bit of an upgrade at linebacker and past coverage. But the run defense has really corrected itself, really figured itself out. And they are getting after opposing running backs the last couple weeks. And that's with, I think, Seattle and Jacksonville had pretty good run offenses. Seattle, in particular, leaned on their rush offense early in the season. And the Colts just held them, let me see, the Colts held the Seahawks running backs to 17 carries for 48 yards in that game. So the Colts are really getting after it in the run game, which I like to see from this

Starting point is 00:18:13 defense. It's a good way to impose your will and show just your overall physicalities of defense. So I want to see that continue down the final stretch here, even if Buckner is not able to return. And then one final note that I really want to make in this one, special teams really return to form at the end of this Seattle, or with the Seattle Seahawks game. Now, I know the very end of the game, the final kick was not great from Blake Groupie, but overall he seemed like a huge upgrade over Michael Badgley,

Starting point is 00:18:40 made his extra point, made the 60-yard kick to put the Colts ahead in the final minute, which I thought was clutch, longest kick in Colts history at 60 yards. So fantastic there from Blake Groupie. Kick coverage and punk coverage was very strong. Tyler Goodson looked like Ashton Doolin out there had two special teams tackles and really limited return yardage. So overall, you know, again, I said going into the Seattle Seahawks game that you need to win on special teams to overcome big deficits and overcome another team being favored so heavily against you.

Starting point is 00:19:13 And the Colts did win on special teams in that game. They just barely came up short on the scoreboard, but I thought special teams was very, very strong overall for the Colts. and was a big part of why that game was as close as it was. They were able to pin the Seahawks deep on the punk game, and they were able to kind of stymie them on a lot of returns. So I thought the Colts special teams did return to form, and hopefully they can keep that up during these final three games and give the Colts a chance against these three playoff teams they're going to be facing.

Starting point is 00:19:40 But coming up, guys, we're going to look ahead. We're going to look at these final three games, and just look at what we need to watch going forward with this Colts team. Maybe they're not going to win these three games, but what should we keep an eye on as the Colts' close? close out this 20-25 season. But first, do you ever feel like your money just disappears each month? It happens so fast. A few subscriptions here, an impulse buy here, and suddenly the numbers

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Starting point is 00:21:08 We're talking all about this Colts team going forward and what we're going to watch in these final three games. Yes, we want to see the Colts win at least one or two of these games and squeak into the playoffs. But even if they're not, there are some things that really keep an eye on. In particular, I think the one biggest thing is just if DeForest Buckner and if Soss Gardner are able to get back on the field, what can this defense look like with

Starting point is 00:21:30 at least two of their three star players back? We've hardly seen this team with at least two of those three star players. The only time we saw them was against Kansas City, where Mooney Ward and Soss Gardner did play the entirety of the game. We saw a little bit earlier in the season where Mooney Ward and Beauce Buckner both overlapped and it was very good. for the most part, the Colts were able to hold Kansas City down for most of that game with those two-star corners out there.

Starting point is 00:21:54 So getting Soss Gardner out there again, getting to Forrest Buckner potentially back out there again, do we see this Colts defense get back to being in really good form? Or is this just going to be like a lost season for the Colts defense where a lot of it's about survival, a lot of it's about just holding teams to field goals and giving your offense a chance because I feel like we've seen the defense just kind of hold on and stay afloat for most of the season, but we haven't really seen them dominate much because they've been missing just so much top talent all year long. Again, of your top three players, you've only had, what, three or four games where Buckner and one of the two corners have played at the same time,

Starting point is 00:22:32 it's hard to win in the NFL without your star talent. What's the thing that we always say here in Indy when we're yelling about Shane Steigin is it's not X's and O's, it's the Jimmy's and Joe's. Well, the Jimmy's and Joe's have been out this year for the Colts on defense, and they need to get those guys back on the field. So I really want to see. is what this defense can look like, even if it's just two games, you know, against Jacksonville and Houston down the stretch and they can get buck back, if they can get sauce back. I want to see them get on the field again and give the Colts a good fighting chance on defense

Starting point is 00:22:59 to win maybe one of those two divisional games and really put a dent in those two teams hot streaks down the stretch here. So just getting those guys back on the field, I'm very curious to see what the defense can look like. Another thing here too is, and I think, you know, it's hard to talk about this because so many people are so anti-moral victory, and I'm not trying to say the Colts need a moral victory after what we just saw on Sunday. It always sucks to lose. It sucks to have a losing streak like this in the NFL, so I'm not trying to paint this as a big win for the Colts, but I've just seen

Starting point is 00:23:32 the Colts teams just quit so much in recent years. You know, from the end of last year against the Giants to how they finish the 2022 season, how they finished the 2019 season, heck, how they finished the 2021 season. Maybe they just got beat by those bad teams, but it felt like they quit on those Sundays down the stretch. I have seen a lack of fight in Colts teams just so often in my time covering the Colts since 2018. And the team I saw on Sunday, like, yeah, they lost to Seattle Seahawks, and that sucks. But I did see a team that was fighting for every inch in that game.

Starting point is 00:24:06 I saw a team that was competitive against a very good Seahawks team. And a team that showed that maybe they have some life down the stretch here. Maybe I shouldn't be counting them out and saying they can't make the playoffs. because if they're going to play like the way they did on Sunday and hold a top five offense down to only field goals for, you know, 18 points and six field goals in that game and make a top defense, allow a touchdown to a 44-year-old quarterback who just showed up in practice this past week, then maybe they can steal a win or two down the stretch and get their way into the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:24:38 So I want to see that same fight from this team down the stretch. Again, if they lose games, they lose games. But I want to see that same fight. I want to see that same determination, that same scrap from them. I know I'm using a lot of coach terms here, but I really want to see that same fight from them. I don't want to see a repeat of the Giants game from last year. I don't want to see a 44 point just blasting, you know, a quarterback with a perfect pass or rating against them. I don't want to see their offense get just completely crushed.

Starting point is 00:25:03 I want to see them actually show some fight and some life down the stretch here, especially when you don't, again, we don't have the first round pick here. We don't have the, we don't get to reap the benefits of a loss. So there's no reason to lose. Go out there and fight for every inch and try to get. get those wins and see what you can do that in a stretch. I want to see them continue that fight that they showed on Sunday against a very good Seahawks team on the road.

Starting point is 00:25:26 You get two home games now, defend your home turf as best you can, even if you are a little bit shorthanded against some very good football teams. Another thing here is does Philip Rivers improve with more chemistry and more playing time? It was a very tough task for a veteran quarterback, especially a guy who's been retired for five years, to show up cold, show up for a week of practice, build up that chemistry. build up that rapport, build up just the landmarks of where guys are going to be and trust your ability to get the ball out there. Now, I do fully believe that his arm is shot. Like, the arm is not great. And I don't think that's going to be getting any better. But do we see at least a little bit

Starting point is 00:26:02 more improvement in play as the snaps ramp up? You know, as he gets more familiarity. I mean, again, he's been away from the league for five years now to think it would be out there and come out perfect on Sunday. Heck, what he was able to do with that in mind is pretty impressive. now does it get better going forward or do like just again the snaps kind of wear on him and we see it get worse that's honestly one of the most curious things to watch down the stretch is does he ramp up or does he crumble because of the soreness because of the injuries because of his body not being ready for the game that's going to be the most fascinating aspect of this final stretch for the colts i i think he can ramp up a little bit especially with his confidence in his chemistry but will his body hold up will be a huge

Starting point is 00:26:45 question because, again, at 44 years old, maybe 250, 260 pounds is probably what he's around right now. I don't know how much that body's going to hold up, especially when he hasn't been through a conditioning stint in the NFL in those five plus years. So it would be really curious to see what Philip Brewer is able to give them down the stretch. Because if he can give them what he gave them on Sunday, as long as the defense shows up, they have a puncher's chance in these games. But I want to see if he's capable to do a little bit more, maybe get the ball out a little bit quicker. Maybe the Colts don't have to go to as many screens because they can, you know, run more mesh stuff and more like two-man in-breaking concepts or something. You know, again, I'm not

Starting point is 00:27:24 saying he can push the ball down the field, but maybe he can feel a little bit more comfortable reading defenses and getting the ball out a little bit quicker. So I'm really curious to see what this looks like with Rivers these last couple weeks. And then finally, it's something that I touched on in the last segment. Just the continued growth of some of the young players on the roster. Now I know a lot of these guys are out with injuries right now, which sucks, but continued growth of Jalen Travis, JT to him a low-ow. Tyler Warren to a degree, I think he's hit that rookie wall, and I don't know if he's going to get over it because of how much football he's played in the last calendar year. But we'll see if he's able to get over that rookie wall. But Travis, JTT, I think those guys are capable of continuing to ascend their play and get where you want them to be going into next season.

Starting point is 00:28:08 So can those guys continue that growth? Can they show that they're real players for the few? of this team and maybe starters for next season as well. I think that's going to be key for both of those guys. But you guys let me know in the comment section what you're looking forward to the most down the stretch here. Maybe you're just looking forward to the end. I completely understand it.

Starting point is 00:28:24 But let me know in the comment section below. But before I get out of here, guys, if you just need like a last minute holiday gift or someone just keeps asking for what you want, just make it easy. Ask for the everydayer club. Add free episodes of this show, exclusive Discord server access and more. Subscriptions can be gifted through LockedonColts. Dot supercast.com. And for those of you on video,

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