Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson & Co.'s Fantasy Value, with Michael Fabiano

Starting point is 00:00:00 Do not neglect your fantasy prep, and I know you guys are going to be drafting some Colts. So today we've got one of the giants of the fantasy industry joining us to help figure it all out. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right. Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts,

Starting point is 00:00:36 part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's show is brought to you by our friends over at Game Time. Go and download the Game Time app, create an account and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off of your first purchase. Terms apply. What is up, y'all? This is Jake Arthur of HorseshoeHuddle.com, your media member covering the Indianapolis Colts. And today, like I said, we are joined by a giant in the fantasy football industry. It's Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated. I started following Fabs way back when he was at NFL.com doing his weekly start and sit. And even though I consider myself pretty good at fantasy, you know, he's been my go-to fantasy guru ever since.

Starting point is 00:01:20 We all need our guys that are still our sounding boards that we got to kind of bounce our ideas off of. So we're going to have a great chat with him. And then we're just going to kind of go over some housekeeping, some quick news and notes pertaining to the Colts. So first and foremost, the Colts canceled their training camp schedule announcement party that was planned for Westfield. Some, you know, maybe rocky weather coming into the area tonight. They have, again, they've canceled the onsite deal, but they're still going to do it online at colts.com at 6 p.m. So Barbara, we don't get to go out there for that.

Starting point is 00:01:56 I was going to be out there maybe meeting some of you guys, but we'll have it covered for you here on horseshoehuddle.com. And then Zach and I tomorrow are going to put together a show, kind of showing what we think are the high points of the schedule. You know, you've got your joint practices with the Cardinals and Bengals. There's going to be some night practices. So we'll kind of just go over our main thoughts on the training camp schedule, some things we're looking for and things like that. So, again, like I mentioned, fantasy time. It is time to get ready for our drafts. The Dynasty rookie drafts are already well underway.

Starting point is 00:02:33 Redrafts, especially like for your home leagues and stuff, that's going to be rolling full steam heading into August. So, I mean, don't cram all of that time. Use this boring part of the NFL calendar to figure out what to do. And again, you're Colts fans. It's ingrained in all of us. We're going to draft guys from our home team, whether it's smart or not. But maybe we can get you the proper spots to where you can actually pick those guys up.

Starting point is 00:02:59 Just kind of going over some quick notes with you guys from Fabiano before we get into the chat. So I think one of the most interesting things is where do you put Anthony Richardson in terms of quarterback rankings? So Favs has got him six, which I think is nice. I'll get into more details on that later, but in general, you kind of have to give Richardson the benefit of the doubt. He's healthy right now. Chris Bowers said he's going to be full go for training camp. I know everyone's chief concern is injuries, but he's not injured right now. So if it happens again, we'll go from there. But right now he's healthy.

Starting point is 00:03:38 So it's not currently a thing. Jonathan Taylor is running back six, which on the surface maybe sounds a little low because in reality, he's probably better than the sixth best running back in the NFL, but this is fantasy. When you go over it, you know, there's a few guys around the league who have a high percentage of, you know, touches from receptions and carries. They get a lot of yards from scrimmage, a lot of touchdowns from scrimmage. Taylor does too, but like, I mean, he's kind of got the injury thing too. People have to see it before they believe it. Luckily, week 18 against the Texans, he exploded against them. So we've

Starting point is 00:04:17 seen that he is still that dude. Going on to the receivers, that one's a little harder to gauge because you got one, you know, dominant target and then the rest you don't really know what to do with. So Michael Pittman is 16th, which from a PPR perspective, I think that's pretty good. Josh Downs at wide receiver 58 and A.D. Mitchell at 74. Fabs in our chat said, you know, he doesn't really think Alec Pierce is a viable option right now, which is fair because he has a very niche role, but he's not going to be a high target in that. You can't really count on that from a fantasy perspective. Matt Gay, the kicker 11th, which is pretty good. Again, we'll go into a little further detail there, much to Zach's chagrin.

Starting point is 00:04:59 And then the Colts defense 12th, which that one you might be saying that's, that's kind of sweet. Cause you know, the Colts may give up a lot of yards and points. But in fantasy, it's based on big plays and the Colts can't do that. So, yeah, let's go ahead and get into this. Again, Michael can be found at SI.com driving the fantasy ship. He's also one half of the Believe Fantasy Football Show alongside Lindsey Rhodes. They're a great duo. I've been on with them a few times before on their Believe Show and also on the radio show, The Fantasy Dirt. So here in a second, we are going to dive into our chat with

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Starting point is 00:06:43 got to gear up for, you know, your home league that's going to be starting up. It's it's drafted anytime. So, um, you have always been my favorite source for, for fantasy knowledge. So of course, and, uh, I was scouring your rankings and everything and the entire Colts offense and the fantasy value of a lot of players kind of hinges on that quarterback spot in Anthony Richardson. So I see you have him at number six, QB six. Is that right? Yeah. I love the kid. I mean, it's hard not to, right? Every fantasy analyst out there is going to have Anthony Richardson listed as a breakout player for this year. Why? Because in the three full games that he played last year, he was phenomenal. He can run with the football. That's huge in fantasy. And he's got the skillset that we love,

Starting point is 00:07:30 right? He's a guy who he showed that, I mean, listen, I mean, he'd only played, you know, three full games, but I think he started to show a little bit of what he could do as a passer. And certainly the stats that he put up as a runner were impressive. Now, does he come with risk? Absolutely. Because the one thing that we're worried about is what injuries durability uh style of play conducive to getting hurt again we don't want that obviously we don't want that and what's funny to me and i mean you know i'm looking at anthony richardson i'm looking at the skill set if he goes down your backup quarterback is completely different like you go from a guy who's like you know you could run design plays design runs and RPOs and then you got Joe Flacco who's you know 100 years old and can't move right so but I

Starting point is 00:08:18 honestly I will say this I don't hate it from a fantasy perspective why joe flacco looked damn good in the last what five games of last season and the colts have a lot of weapons yeah michael pitman obviously uh you're looking at jonathan taylor and at least the passing game for the browns last season of course nick chubb was out boy it thrived so if you lose richardson which let's keep our fingers and toes crossed doesn't happen but if we lose, I don't necessarily think that's a downgrade for your offense when Flacco takes over if he's the Joe Flacco from the second half of last year in Cleveland. But yeah, I love Richardson, and most in the fantasy industry love Richardson. Yeah, I think you have to.

Starting point is 00:09:00 It's obviously that balance between is he going to get hurt? How much can you worry about that? But I mean, right now, as far as we know, he's healthy. Chris Ballard just said, you know, he's going to be full go for training camp. So that's what we've got to go on. So that upside of course is crazy. But he's, he's, he's not got a highly heralded group of pass catchers, but there are some guys in there. And as a group, they can get the job done. So yeah, for, for you, how have you kind of sorted out this passing attack from a fantasy perspective of who given the ADP is really worth going for? Well, so first off Pittman Jr.

Starting point is 00:09:37 Is going to be the only guy that's really prominently drafted in fantasy. And I remember last year, I was a little bit worried about him because of Richardson, not knowing what he could be as a passer. But if you look at the numbers from the three full games that Richardson played, Pittman was good in fantasy. He was getting targeted a ton. So that concern is sort of out the window. And Pittman was a very good fantasy player last year. I mean, he wasn't elite, but he was very good. He was very consistent, but you know, some people are going to be like, well, they brought in 80 Mitchell and you know, they've got Alec Pierce and they've got Josh downs. And to me, I don't care about that stuff. I think Pittman jr. Still going to be a very nice wide receiver too, from a fantasy perspective. And again,

Starting point is 00:10:16 as I mentioned, God forbid Richardson gets hurt. I don't think there's a huge downgrade for Pittman when it goes to Flacco and Flacco should let Flacco was awesome. Like, and again, you know, it was, it was a small sample size from the end of last season. And, you know, obviously, you know, Stefanski was able to throw the ball a little bit more with, with Flacco than he did with Watson. But I, I would not be concerned about Pittman jr. If Flacco were the quarterback in Indianapolis, we hope that does not

Starting point is 00:10:43 happen. Josh downs to like Josh downs. He showed some flashes last year right i mean he wasn't like super super consistent but there was you know there was a few games they were like this kid's got something right not not a not a big kid out of north carolina but still made some plays and so he's a draftable asset i think mitchell just because of the name is probably a draftable asset but i gotta be honest with you i don't think't think 80 Mitchell is going to come in and put a huge dent in anybody's targets, especially Michael Pittman jr. You know, Pierce is not a draftable asset at this point at tight end.

Starting point is 00:11:12 I mean, you know, maybe you throw a dart at Jelani woods, but he's not a guy that I would be targeting as anything more than a late round dart throw deep sleeper type in this offense. more than a late round dart throw deep sleeper type uh in this offense so i i think there's certainly you've got the alpha and pitman jr and you've got some guys with potential like a downs and again mitchell i don't see him seeing enough targets to be a consistently good fantasy receiver unless somebody gets hurt uh but still certainly worth uh a dart throw somewhere late yeah definitely an interesting group because Mitchell, I think at some point he's going to usurp Pierce as, as that other starting outside receiver. Very possible.

Starting point is 00:11:51 Yes. Yeah. But Pierce is a pretty valuable part to their blocking scheme as well. He almost never, you know, left the field now Pittman missed a game. So this is primarily why, but Pierce had the most snaps of any receiver last year. So that'll be interesting for me to see how they work Mitchell in there given how much they like Pierce to be out there but I agree with you there's there's really two receivers you can be somewhat comfortable with um kind of leads us to the next thing and you you went to it a little bit was the tight ends um is there anyone on the Colts that's kind of sneaky for you I mean with J with, with Jelani Woods, you mentioned, I think right now, most of these guys until we see otherwise are kind of streamers. Yeah, right.

Starting point is 00:12:32 I mean, you know, you're looking at, you know, Kylan Grant. So I mean, Moelle Cox is still there. It really Woods is the only guy that I have any interest in. And really it's late rounds. It really is a late round sort of dart throw type of guy. You know, if you're in a best ball league and you want a third tight end, you maybe you throw a dart at him. That that's really about it.

Starting point is 00:12:50 But you hadn't shown anything as a big guy, you know, maybe he's going to end up being a red zone option there for Richardson this upcoming season. But we haven't seen enough from, from him to really make a statement. That's, you know,

Starting point is 00:13:04 solid one way or the other he is or he is not going to make an impact i think there's going to be games that he will uh i think he could be a little bit touchdown dependent but it's not somebody that's like on my radar as a player that i'm like wow late you know like like ben senate in washington is a player that i'm like you know what i think late i'll take a chance on him because maybe he takes over for Zach Gertz at some point in Washington is a young guy. There are some other tight ends. I would have mentioned Juwan Johnson before he got hurt. There's some other tight ends out there that I'd prefer over Jelani Woods, but at least a name to keep in the back of your mind, especially if you're in a larger league. Yeah. He's definitely someone who last year he was

Starting point is 00:13:44 pointed at for the Colts, you know, watch out for him. And then of course had these kind of unprecedented hamstring injuries that I think he saw a specialist and they said they hadn't really seen his case necessarily before. So hopefully he can get right because he is definitely a weapon for them. I saw you have Jonathan Taylor as RB6. Is he someone you wish you could have him hire? You're just kind of waiting almost like Richardson with the injury stuff. Six is respectable, by the way. I don't want to make it seem like you're low on him.

Starting point is 00:14:13 I mean, listen, six is pretty good. It's pretty good, buddy. I mean, you know, five guys better than him in the entire league at running back. That's pretty good. And the guys that I have in front of them, you christian mccaffrey's a no-brainer yeah he's on robinson now that he's um i think he'll be a featured back in in zach robinson's system in atlanta he's got kurt cousins i think that's a no-brainer bruce hall was the number two running back in fantasy football last year i think that's a no-brainer and not for another but saquon barkley as much as i hate it because i'm a cowboys fan he was the rb13 last year he missed time and

Starting point is 00:14:42 he played in a lousy offense now he he's going to Philadelphia for Christ's sake. I mean, geez, the wheeze with that line and Howie Roseman, boy, they get it right. And that's what pisses me off about the Cowboys. I don't want to go off on a Cowboys tangent here.

Starting point is 00:14:53 We want to stick with the Colts, but in the running backs in this scenario, but I mean, hell Saquon Barkley is in a really good spot. Like where could he have landed list? Like realistically, that would have been better than Philadelphia. I mean,

Starting point is 00:15:04 I don't see anywhere. So, and then Jameer Gibbs, obviously he's still somewhat of a committee back as David Montgomery is going to get his, but I think a lot of people fell in love with him. The second half of last year, down the stretch and in the post season,

Starting point is 00:15:15 those are the only guys that I have ahead of Jonathan Taylor. And really Jonathan Taylor's one concern is that, you know, he's, he's been banged up and now the specter of zach moss is gone like who's your backup running back is it trace sermon is it evan hall i don't know but i don't see either one of those guys putting a dent in a jonathan taylor's touches and they just paid the guy you know a lot of money so they're gonna give him the football so i think if there's one concern with taylor

Starting point is 00:15:40 it's injuries that's it the talent we know is there. Yeah. I mean, I think the good thing that can give a lot of us confidence is the last time we saw him, he was going for like a buck 70 or whatever it was against Houston. So he showed that that old Jonathan Taylor is still there. So that's definitely good. But no, I'm with you, you know, the last like year and a half with the injuries and the unknown, there's just, again again there's so much that kind of hinges on richardson's health because having the threat of richardson obviously opens things up for the other running backs and there's just kind of a lot of dominoes that goes with it but babs i appreciate you joining us and uh giving us some insight we'll probably we'll have to have you on sometime again

Starting point is 00:16:18 soon once fantasy season kicks up yeah man and the way, the sports illustrated draft kit just, uh, got released today. Oh, we have, and it's going to be a live draft kit, as they say, where it's going to continually be updated and content will be added to it. And it's already got a boatload of stuff, all the nuts and bolts, the sleepers, the breakouts, the bus, the rookies, all the rankings dynasty. Otherwise, like it's all on their strategies. So make sure you go and check that out over at si.com slash fantasy. Absolutely. Fab's part of the SI family

Starting point is 00:16:50 as well. You know, we're with horseshoe huddle, so we'll be plugging the heck out of that as well. So again, thanks for being on. We'll see you soon. You got it. All right. Thanks again to fabs for joining the show Again, be sure to go to si.com slash fantasy to check out that season preview guide that he mentioned. So let's dive into some of Fabs thoughts on on these major Colts players here. So again, Richardson as QB six. Again, when for me, my approach with with fantasy, I normally try and look for these, these quarterbacks. If you're not going to get like a Mahomes or someone who's going to put up like the gaudy passing stats, then I typically try and look for a mobile quarterback who's going to do something on the ground as well. Get you four or 500 yards minimum, get some touchdowns. That's kind of what we're looking at with Richardson here. So again, we saw him in just four games last year, two of them he played basically full. He averaged 259.5 yards from

Starting point is 00:17:51 scrimmage and had five touchdowns in those two games. And then in a 17 game season, he was on pace for 30 total touchdowns. So that's a really big season for him. You've got to think when you mix in the rushing and the passing that the guy is going to have a little north of 4,000 yards, at least from scrimmage. When you consider both, I think 30 touchdowns from scrimmage is very realistic when you factor in the rushing as well. So if you miss out on one of those top few guys that's going to put up the elite passing stats, go for a quarterback that's going to get you the points on the ground, especially if you're in a league that only rewards like four points for touchdown passes. I almost do this religiously. When I'm in a league

Starting point is 00:18:43 like that, that doesn't really reward passing touchdowns very handsomely. I almost do this religiously. When I'm in a league like that, that doesn't really reward passing touchdowns very handsomely. I almost always get a mobile quarterback because they're going to add those rushing stats and rushing touchdowns will be six full points. So I think AR being sixth, if healthy throughout the year, I think that's very fair. There's going to be other guys that put up better passing stats, but when you factor in Richardson's ground game, I think that's going to be more than enough. Again, Taylor being six, I think that's pretty good as well. I think there's room for him to outperform that. The last full season we saw from him, 2021, he had one of the best seasons a Colts running back

Starting point is 00:19:22 has ever had. Again, that's factoring in Edron James, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Falk. You can even throw Joseph Adai in there. He had some big performances as well. So Jonathan Taylor, we know, is special when he's healthy. And again, he doesn't have the ankle thing. He doesn't have the contract thing. He doesn't have the thumb thing. Like as far as we know, Anthony Richardson is healthy and his running back, Jonathan Taylor,

Starting point is 00:19:50 is healthy. And together, this whole thing that fans and the team has hoped to see come to fruition, this dynamic duo, we might finally see that. Those guys are going to open up so much for each other. So while I, I totally agree with sixth being an appropriate spot for Taylor, the preseason, I do think there's definitely room for him to outperform that. I don't know that he's going to finish like first or second, but inside that top five, I think is, is appropriate if he stays healthy all year. Pittman at 16th. I think due to PPR, I think will be big for him. He's a 100 catch guy. He's improved his targets and receptions each year in his career. Touchdowns is something he's really got to get up there. I mean, again, a game like fantasy being based

Starting point is 00:20:39 so heavily on big plays, he just has always kind of been lacking the touchdowns. He's a thousand yard guy as well. So you're going to baseline get the 90 catches and about a thousand yards. You know that, but if you're only getting like four touchdowns out of it, you would hope to see a little more. Josh Downs being at 58, that is when I would imagine he'll outperform a little bit again, because of PPR. He had one of the statistically best seasons from a Colts rookie receiver in franchise history last year. Wasn't a huge season in NFL standards for like a veteran receiver, but it was very, very productive for a rookie. And as long as he's healthy, because remember he had that knee that was kind of giving him some issues at points last year. As long as he is healthy as well, he's got great chemistry with Richardson.

Starting point is 00:21:29 And he's not just like a slot guy that's going to clean up all the stuff within the sticks, because Richardson does look for him downfield as well. And then A.D. Mitchell being at 74, that's fine. You kind of have to get these rookies who you don't know exactly what their role is yet. You kind of have to shove them down the list a little bit. And so being at 74, that's fine with me. Mitchell, I think is going to be the primary other outside receiver opposite of Pittman at some point. I don't know how long it's going to take because Alec Pierce does have a role on the team and it's hard to take him off the field because he does play such a big role as a blocker. But at a certain point, like if Mitchell looks really good and the opportunities he's given, how much can you

Starting point is 00:22:16 hold off a playmaking receiver in favor of a receiver who's just really good at blocking? You know, that's not to downgrade what Pierce can do in the passing game either because he is a big play threat as well. But it looks like Mitchell probably has a higher ceiling and could probably do a little more than Pierce. So until we see otherwise, I would put Mitchell down there around 74 as well. That's fine. I think, you know, at some point, if you're going to draft Mitchell, he's one of those guys you could take in the last couple rounds to fill out your bench, you know, take a flyer on him in case, you know, God forbid there's an injury or something, or he develops a bigger role. I think that would be fine, but yeah, I wouldn't rush to draft Mitchell. I know he's going to be

Starting point is 00:23:04 a popular pick amongst Colts fans, but I would be a little patient there. Now for two other positions that you wait until the end to address, Matt Gay being 11th at kicker and then the Colts defense being 12th. So Gay, I think as long as he proves he's healthy, he had that lower body, you know, mid to lower body injury during the season that in the latter half of the season caused him some issues, missed some kicks uncharacteristically,

Starting point is 00:23:31 but he still had one of the best seasons that a Colts kicker has had in recent memory. You know, going back to prime Adam Vinatieri. Now, I know the late season misses kind of spoiled that a little bit, but don't get it twisted. Matt Gay is a really, really good kicker. He had nine weeks where he had top 10 finishes last year throughout fantasy scoring. A lot of those were top five as well. So when it comes to fantasy, I think Gay is a very safe kicker to get. Again, he kicks indoors as well. He has another division game against Houston where he's indoors. So Matt Gay gets a lot of good opportunities there.

Starting point is 00:24:09 And then the Colts defense, again, not great statistically in yardage and points. But they did have 51 sacks last year. That's top five. Again, fantasy for defenses. It doesn't, points and yards just really don't matter. It's all based on big plays. So it's a team that gets 51 sacks that just added Laatu to that. And a lot of those sacks are coming from guys who are still young and ascending.

Starting point is 00:24:38 You got Quidipe, Dayo Adengbo, guys like that who are still young and getting better. And DeForest Buckner doesn't look like he's slowing down. In fact, he's been a bit banged up the last year or so. So if he's healthy, that's great. You got Samson Evicom, who's not young by any means, but you know, if he just does what he did again last year with nine and a half sacks, that's really productive. So you add Lottu onto that, the best pass rusher in the draft and shoot you can think that number's probably

Starting point is 00:25:09 going to get better or at least the pass rush will and even if the sacks don't go up if the pass rush is more consistent and they're harassing quarterbacks that's going to lead to bad plays and you know misjudgments by opposing offensive players, leading to more big plays. The Colts had 24 takeaways last year, way closer to the top than it was the bottom. When you look into teams tying for the same numbers of stuff, it averages out to being roughly the middle of the road. But again, it's much higher to being among the most in the league. They had three touchdowns off of interceptions and then a pump block touchdown. So between special teams, which counts towards this touchdowns, between special teams touchdowns

Starting point is 00:25:54 and defensive touchdowns, it's really volatile and you can never count on it. But historically, the Colts have shown that they can do it. Like they always put points on the board defensively and with special teams. They've just got good players that can do it. Like they always put points on the board defensively in with special teams. They've just got good players that can do that blocking punts and kicks and things like that. And you can never go into a draft strategizing that because again, it's not something you can count on. But it's definitely something to keep in your in the back of your mind that the Colts do have a history of creating those big plays kind of out of thin air, it seems. So that is it for us today.

Starting point is 00:26:29 Again, I mentioned Zach and I will be with you guys tomorrow talking about the training camp schedule, kind of the highlights from that, what we think are the things to really focus on. And don't forget, Locked On has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. And now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV in the free Fire TV channels app. Locked On Sports Today is here for you 24-7, covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked On,

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson & Co.'s Fantasy Value, with Michael Fabiano

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