Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson's Potential Return the X-Factor vs. Los Angeles Rams

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Colts are finally back home this week against the Los Angeles Rams as they ride a two-game winning streak and might be getting their star playmaker back. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right. What's up, everyone? Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering both your Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Rams, part of the Locked On Podcast Network,

Starting point is 00:00:45 your team every day. And this Crossover Thursday episode is brought to you by PrizePix, which is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Go to prizepix.com slash locked on NFL and use code all lowercase locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. Welcome to the show, everyone. I am Jake Arthur from Locked On Colts, and I am joined today by Doug McCain of Locked On Rams.

Starting point is 00:01:12 Today, we're going to take you through the journey that is this week four matchup of the Colts versus the Rams. We're going to walk through what are the biggest storylines for each team, who are the most critical players in the biggest, I guess, matchups that are going to make the biggest storylines for each team, who are the most critical players in the biggest, I guess, matchups that are going to make the biggest difference. And ultimately we will then bring you our final predictions for the game. But remember when the Colts play the Rams this Sunday at one Eastern, you can catch every snap of the hometown broadcast with Sirius XM on the SXM

Starting point is 00:01:41 app, search either Colts or Rams. right Doug so thanks for joining me today glad to finally talk to you and and the Colts are back at home I'm ready to get back in the stadium and watch some games yeah let's dive into this one man I mean we have a missed opportunity for the Rams on Monday night they lost a very winnable game a lot of the Rams fans right now frustrated with Sean McVay and some of his calls abandoning the run game. So it's great. Anytime you have one of those missed opportunities, one of those frustrating games that leave a bad taste in your mouth, to be able to get back on the field on Sunday, early window, try to get back in that win column.

Starting point is 00:02:16 Yeah, no doubt. The Colts themselves are 2-0 these last couple weeks without Anthony Richardson. You know, they've also not had Jonathan Taylor all year so it's a little bit surprising that I don't want to say super surprising that they've been able to do it but on paper you know maybe they shouldn't be two and one so I'm interested from a Rams perspective what's the biggest thing that everyone's looking at heading into this one I think the biggest thing for this one is can the offense hold up to the end of the bargain because the defense has really surprised they've exceeded expectations early on you've seen them hold their opponents to under 20 points in two of their first

Starting point is 00:02:55 three games and really heading into this season the expectation was that the offense was gonna have to lap the scoreboard just to keep them in games but this defense they perform very well we're gonna do that a little bit here but also I think the run game is abandoning the run game the way they did you mentioned Jonathan Taylor a few minutes ago I just kind of wanted to say that hey Zach Moss is not helping his case to getting paid if you look at the start he's had averaging 105 yards per game 4.4 yards per carry and And I think the Rams, they want to see, Rams doesn't want to see this team really establish the run game on the ground and not get away from it.

Starting point is 00:03:30 So, yeah, we'll see if this team can bounce back. But you saw that first game where they beat the Seahawks on the road. They were very impressive. Second game, it was the 49ers. They were in that one. You had some mistakes towards the end of the half. The 49ers pulled away. But this one, you go into Cincinnati in week three, you have a Joe Burrow who's hobbled

Starting point is 00:03:49 on basically one leg there and you lose to him. You got to win this game for the Rams because you can't afford to drop to one and three with Philadelphia coming to town. Yeah, that's a tough spot. The Colts are somewhat similar in that area. The defense keeps answering the bell. The offense hasn't been bad. It's done enough to keep things going, converting some third downs and things, but it's really been that run game with Zach Moss. Like you mentioned, not exactly showing Jonathan Taylor's value. He's had over 200 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns these last two weeks. Shane Steichen and offensive line coach Tony Sperano Jr. just scheme up this run

Starting point is 00:04:26 game. It's really effective no matter who's back there. But Zach Moss, he's just a physical guy, good balance, just goes ahead and gets it. He's kind of the guy that pushes the pile forward. So it's looked really good. But from a Colts perspective, what we're all looking at is will Anthony Richardson play? He was held out. He left after the first quarter two weeks ago with a concussion, was back in a full participant level on Wednesday. So, you know, after that, you just kind of have to get the clearance from the independent neurologist in order to play. So that's the biggest thing. Gardner Minshew has done a nice job managing the game, but it feels like

Starting point is 00:05:05 the playbook's really not going to open up and the offense won't live up to its potential until Richardson is in there. I mean, right before he left the game, he had two rushing touchdowns on consecutive drives, you know? So he had looked pretty good out there. The downfield passing game has not been existent at all yet. You know. They've had some tight ends do some things up the seams around the numbers, but in terms of getting Alec Pierce involved on the outside downfield, that just hasn't been unlocked yet. But as Richardson gets out there and teams maybe start playing a little more man, I think that will come.

Starting point is 00:05:41 But that's basically what everyone around Indy is looking at is, number one, is Richardson going to play? Because it seems like if you're facing a defense like the Rams who's been doing a solid job and Aaron Donald still exists I think you're gonna need your best playmakers out there yeah and it looked like Anthony Richardson was back out of practice taking first team reps he's of course trying to get out of that concussion protocol and it's interesting that that's kind of really been the storyline for the Rams for the past two weeks. Is the opposing team starting quarterback going to play? I think Richardson, he's flash.

Starting point is 00:06:12 He's looked phenomenal in certain spots. I was watching a couple of the games last night. I think he really ends up possibly being the best quarterback in that class. CJ Stroud, he's performed well so far. Bryce Young, of course, he's gotten banged up. But yeah, I've been very impressed with him. I think, think yeah when it comes to this Rams team another big storyline and really what our entire season hinges on is can you protect Matthew Stafford first couple of games they protected him he was upright he was vertical last game though he was sacked six times and he

Starting point is 00:06:41 cannot perform when he has a dysfunctional offensive line that's just isn't going to happen the Colts they rank 17th in pressure rate at 22.5 percent they blitz 17.1 percent of the time so we'll see how aggressive they're going to be but if you give Matthew Stafford time he's going to make throws and in the last game he didn't attempt too many deep shots I mean one of the big storylines here at Ramsland was the first possession of the game it appeared that they had scored a 24-yard touchdown on a little reverse end around action with 2-2 Atwell and they rolled him out at the three-yard line and instead of running the ball they end up throwing the ball three times and he ends up taking a sack it was a bad situation there but there was a missed throw there by Stafford where

Starting point is 00:07:24 he had Jefferson or 2-2 in the end zone he didn't really get it done. They go one for four in the red zone. So one, can they convert in the red zone? Two, can they keep Matthew Stafford vertical? That's going to go a long way to determining if the Rams are able to win this game. I'm glad you mentioned that because Gus Bradley has really ratcheted up the pressure when necessary. We've seen Matthew Stafford just shred the Colts defense before when given time. But I mean, for totally different circumstances, they really put the pressure on Lamar Jackson last week because Jackson can kind of fall apart a little bit

Starting point is 00:07:56 when you're constantly bringing pressure at him. So that may be the recipe again. You mentioned the Colts success up front, 23 tackles for loss. It's versus the NFL, 12 sacks. That' success up front. You know, 23 tackles for loss. It's versus the NFL. 12 sacks, that's right up there as well. So they're really doing a good job of putting pressure on offenses. So I think they're going to have to do that. Or Stafford, you know, he's found that connection with Puka Nakua

Starting point is 00:08:18 with Cooper Cupp on IR. So that'll be critical. I mean, I know Nakua is a rookie, but they're going to have to make sure that connection isn't firing on all cylinders. Yeah, that's definitely been one of the big breakthroughs. Puka Nakua setting records, most catches for a rookie receiver in a game, but they did slow him down. The Bengals did a really nice job in Monday Night Football's matchup.

Starting point is 00:08:41 They're being more physical with him on the line. He wasn't getting as open as much. He wasn't being able to find those soft spots in the zone. They really prevented him from doing that. Just they were more physical and it looked like, okay, this is a rookie in his third game for the first time. They make a nice 37 yard catch there late in the game, but that's going to be a big match I'm looking for is Kenny Moore versus Puka Nakua

Starting point is 00:09:01 because you look at 25 catches through two weeks through Puka with Puka and can he continue to sustain that because they're going to need him because you got one more game before Cooper Cup returns so you're looking at that the pressure is going to be the big key like you said I mean I'm looking at Steve Avila versus DeForest Buckner I mean you got pay versus Havenstein I mean can the Rams offensive line who's banged up by the way, they lost their left tackle, Allerick Jackson, during the game, and they call in a third string in Zach Thomas, who was out there bullfighting, doing some Ole offensive line work, and it really hurt the Rams chances in that one. So yeah, can you protect Matthew Stafford? Can you get pressure on the

Starting point is 00:09:40 other end? I think this battle of the trenches is ultimately going to determine who ends up with this W, but let me ask you, what is the word on Jonathan Taylor these days? Because I have a lot of Rams fans that we talk about, wait, a number 28 from the Colts. Last time they traded for a number 28 from the Colts, it turned into a Super Bowl, but what's the status of Jonathan Taylor? Yeah, it looks like, I mean, he, he almost has no leverage in this anymore. And if he does want to get traded, if whether he wants to get traded from the Colts or wants a commender from them long-term, he's going to have to come back and play. And that's what it sounds like might happen. You know, he's due to come off the pup list coming up here in the next week. You know, if he comes back and practices, whether it takes him a week or two

Starting point is 00:10:25 to actually hit the field, I think he's going to have to come out and show that he is Jonathan Taylor in order for the Colts or any other team to show enough interest to really make a commitment to him. So I do think he's going to play now. Like at one point, I didn't think he would,

Starting point is 00:10:40 but now it feels like he probably will play because that's really the only card he has left. Interesting. And what do you think the pulse is from Colts fans towards Jonathan Taylor? Do they want the organization to give him a bag? I mean, do they want to see him get traded because of his current stance? I mean, what's that pulse like? Yeah, it seems pretty split, honestly. I think the rational part of it is sure the Colts don't want to make a commitment to him because he's been hurt for a

Starting point is 00:11:05 while. Like this ankle injury was supposed to be healed by like February or March because they've got another player, EJ Speed, who had the same thing done and has had zero issues whatsoever. So with a running back who throughout his career, the main concern has been the workload ever since his days at Wisconsin. It's like, you know, is this signs of wear and tear because you don't want to give a guy a huge three-year deal worth 15 million per year, if that's the case. So the rational part of it says, yeah, let's wait and see. But there are some who say running backs don't matter, send them out.

Starting point is 00:11:40 And then you have your passionate fan base that says, you know, this guy has carried the team before. Look what he did in 2021. Give him whatever he wants. So they're pretty split down the middle, I'd say. Interesting stuff. Yeah, we'll gladly take them and just send them our way. We'd love that.

Starting point is 00:11:55 Yeah, I'm sure that would be no problem at all. The Rams could really use them. So next up, we're going to we're going to dive into some of these more specific matchups. Tell you who the most critical players are going to dive into some of these more specific matchups, tell you who the most critical players are going to be. But first, a word from our friend over at Harry's. All right, everyone, as you can see, I don't do a great deal of wholesale shaving, but I do touch up and make sure that things are somewhat organized. And for that, there's no better resource than Harry's. No matter why you shave, Harry's has you covered for the best shave of your life at a price that you're going to love. A smooth shave shouldn't

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Starting point is 00:13:33 But after today, both these shows will go on and kind of put a bow on our coverage of Colts and Rams for Sunday and give you our final takes. We'll have final injury reports available to us as well so that'll obviously uh be a big deal so moving on Doug what is the most critical matchup in your eyes like some some of the ones that are just really going to make a difference between winning and losing you know is someone harassing the quarterback non-stop like what are you thinking yeah I think there's some very interesting matchups in this game. I got four or five here I kind of want to dive into.

Starting point is 00:14:09 But really, this team's success or failure is ultimately going to hinge on the success of Matthew Stafford and his ability to stay upright. I mean, like I said earlier in the show, got sacked six times. He was used and abused and harassed all night long. And you just can't have that in this offense. That is how important he is. So when it comes to specific matchups, I'm looking at Rob Havenstein versus Quiddie Paye.

Starting point is 00:14:29 Now Paye, of course, leads your Colts with nine pressures, three sacks, mostly lined up there on the left side. He's going to be matched up with Havenstein. And Havenstein, he's been a rock for this offensive line. Last year, when they were decimated by injuries, he was the one constant. He's been a rock for years now. So we need him to hold up.

Starting point is 00:14:46 And then also Steve Avila versus DeForest Buckner. Now, Steve Avila, Rams rookie, was their first pick in the second round, 36 overall. And he was really, really good through their first two games, had his worst game in their third game against the Bengals. So I think that's going to be a big matchup. And we know that DeForest Buckner, he's a mount of a man, 6'7", 295. Buckner has the highest pass rushing grade for the Colts at 82. So I think if you can win those matchups and try to limit the damage up from the

Starting point is 00:15:16 trenches, that's going to really go a long way for this Rams team. Because if they're getting to Matthew Stafford early and often without establishing a run game, this game could get away from the Rams early. Yeah, establishing a run game, this game could get away from the Rams early. Yeah, I'm glad you said that because that makes a lot of sense. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, they both got off to a really hot start in those first two games. There was a lot of attention focused on them in week three, so I kind of look for a bounce back from them. Steve Abo, like you said, that seems like a matchup they could really kind of take advantage um one that seems like just steel versus steel on the flip side of it is quentin nelson versus aaron donald we saw that matchup a couple years ago it was entertaining

Starting point is 00:15:55 i mean donald had his win so did nelson so nelson has had kind of a rocky last year or two like he's still an above average guard, but you know, some injuries caused him to maybe not look as, as good as he looked his first couple of years this year, you know, he's healthy. I mean, he's had a toe,

Starting point is 00:16:15 but it hasn't really cost him any, cause him any problems. He's been healthy and he's looked a lot more like the Quentin Nelson that people have come to endear themselves with him. So I'm, I'm really entertained by this one. But Will Fries, the other guard, right guard, he has come into his own. People were looking to replace him all offseason. You know, they said if there's one vulnerable spot on the Colts line, it's right guard.

Starting point is 00:16:38 Get someone new in there. And he's responded by having a really solid first few weeks. So he's obviously going to get the biggest test of his career against Aaron Donald this week. So really interested in that one. And I think depending on who the Colts quarterback this week is going to be a big difference because Anthony Richardson, very good at sack avoidance.

Starting point is 00:16:59 Gardner Minshew, not so much. His peripheral vision is not all that great. So if you get donald coming up front he's going to see it but if he stunts outside or does anything like that that could be a huge issue uh so nelson and will fries and then even ryan kelly hopefully returning from his own uh concussion that could be a really big deal against someone like aaron donald yeah and i'm glad you brought up aaron donald jake because through the first two weeks he made some plays but he was a little quiet against the 49ers there was some chatter out there has aaron

Starting point is 00:17:29 donald fallen off are we starting to see the decline of bruce banner the hulking football cleats aaron donald and i'm here to tell you that ad showed up on monday and he looked like ad of old and the last time that we had this matchup in 2021, AD had eight pressures and three hits on the quarterback. So he's still as disruptive as ever. He had a PFF grade of 92.6, so he's back in elite territory. Had a sack in two TFLs versus the Bengals, seven pressures, five stops. He was very active. And I think the interesting thing to look for for Aaron Donald is

Starting point is 00:18:01 they're not just moving him up and down the line like we've seen in years past. You're seeing more stunts more loops more twists and also he's forming a really nice dynamic duo with him and rookie Kobe Turner right there on the interior so him having a big game is going to be massive especially against a potential rookie quarterback if he plays because hey the thing about Richardson is I love his his gutsy fire and his passion but hey those nfl hits just hit a little different don't they yeah absolutely it's a bit different uh you know another one i was looking at it's kind of a coach first player matchup matt stafford versus gus bradley uh we've seen bradley really kind of get in his bag lately

Starting point is 00:18:40 uh he when he first came to the col, he kind of had a reputation for being stubborn in some of the things that he did, whether it was the players he would play or the coverages he would put out. But we've seen him really be able to adapt, and it's largely worked. There's been a lot of matchups where it looked like the opposing offense might be able to steam roll the Colts, and then the Colts defense comes up and really lives up to it. So I'm interested to see how with a really young cornerback group, you know, Dallas flowers, really his first year playing anything. You've got Julius Juju Brents is going to be making his, his second game appearance here.

Starting point is 00:19:18 They had already sat Daryl Baker jr. As a healthy scratch last week. How is he going to use Kenny Moore? Even against, you know, we mentioned Puka Nakua, Tutu Atwell. How is he going to combat the things that Stafford has done really well? Obviously, we talked about pressure is going to be the most important thing, but Stafford is going to be able to throw the ball a bit. And, you know, we've seen C.J. Stroud kind of tore them up. Trevor Lawrence had a great game against the Colts. So how are they going to be able to counter a guy

Starting point is 00:19:51 like Stafford who has had some absolute gem passing performances and really seems like he still has it? Like, I'm not, I'm not looking at this matchup and saying Stafford's cooked. Like I'm worried about what he could do to the Colts again through the air. Yeah, no, the thing with Matthew Stafford is he hasn't lost his fastball, right? He's someone who can still make all the throws. I think for him, you just need to see a game plan that helps him because Sean McVay didn't help him at all when they lose their left tackle and you bring in a Zach Thomas, didn't have that time to throw.

Starting point is 00:20:21 But as far as his receiving core, you're still missing a Cooper Cove. I mean, you don't have a true wide receiver one out there. And look, the reality is last two games, he's thrown two interceptions at each of those games. You got to put a lot of them into context because against the 49ers, Kyron Williams' ball goes through his hands, ends up as a pick. Van Jefferson doesn't come back to the ball, ends up as a pick. Last game, I think the interception to Logan Wilson,

Starting point is 00:20:44 I think that ball moved right there. So definitely you, it's not all in the quarterback, but I think you want to see some more deep shots. I mean, you have two, two at well, a young speedster who's continuing to emerge, kind of take the top off the defense and just going out there and allow them to be more efficient. He goes 18 for 33 for 269 yards in the last game. And I think the biggest key for him is just a little more balance on offense to establish a run game, because look, he's been really good against the Colts throughout his career.

Starting point is 00:21:11 And he's someone, I mean, 1,267 yards with 10 TDs and three picks in four games against the Colts with a 102.6 passer rating. And look, he's someone in 2021. We saw have a good game up there as well. So I think for

Starting point is 00:21:25 him it's going to be as important as ever just to keep the decision making at its best because there's not a lot of margin for error right now Matthew Stafford he essentially has to go out there and play a perfect game for this Rams team to win just because they don't have much on the ground and he needs to go out there and make the perfect throws all night long. And you want to see some more points out of this Rams offense. Yeah, I have a feeling we could be seeing a more, a higher scoring game than a lot of people are envisioning. But soon we're going to finish up by making our final predictions. But first a word from the official sponsor crossover Thursday's prize picks.

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Starting point is 00:22:55 that's price picks.com slash locked on NFL and use code locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. Prize picks, Daily Fantasy Sports made easy. Okie dokie. All right, so I'll go first real quick. I'll let you know what I think is going to happen in this one and why. So in order for the Colts to win, I think they're going to need to be a little more diverse on offense. I really want to see that downfield passing game open up.

Starting point is 00:23:28 My co-host Zach and I have been talking recently about this Alec Pierce game is coming at some point when you, when you watch the film, he's getting those wins. He's getting, you know, he's leaving his defender two or three steps behind, you know, Gardner Minshew just isn't necessarily the aggressive downfield quarterback. And then Anthony Richardson, when he was out there the first game and a half, he faced a lot of zone coverage. They were trying to take away the downfield stuff, but also make sure they had ability to defend him as a runner. So I think the Colts are going to need to make it a little more

Starting point is 00:24:01 diverse, be a little less predictable I think they've done a decent job of that so far uh but then on the defensive side they've done a nice job of taking advantage of opponents weaknesses and you know the offensive front for the Rams it feels like something they could take advantage of uh so I think with those two things in play I think the Colts take this one home 26-20. 26-20, I think that score makes a lot of sense. I think it's possible. I think in this one, just like the Rams were playing a desperate team

Starting point is 00:24:35 on Monday night against the Bengals, I think the Rams are going to be the desperate team in this one. They realize what's ahead of them. Really, the goal early on this season was just to tread water, hopefully make it to 500 once the trade deadline rolls around and you have to win this game against a very young colts team by the way these the rams are the third youngest team in the nfl at 25.8 average and then the culture the fourth youngest team at 25.81 both of these teams have a lot of guys that can't even rent a car

Starting point is 00:25:01 without a cosigner right so lots youth, lots of inexperience. So I think it's going to come down to mistakes. Who's going to execute and make the least amount of mistakes? And you talk about the last game for the Rams, the two interceptions, try to avoid mistakes and convert in the red zone. There was a universe where the Rams could have been up 14 to three against that Bengals team, and they could have taken complete control. So you need to convert in the red zone, punch it in,

Starting point is 00:25:23 and then also I think corral the Colts. I'm talking about tackling because this Rams defense has definitely been the strength and not the weakness, but you have seen some missed tackles. Collectively, they missed 34 tackles this year. That's 29th in the NFL for a 40.5 tackling rate. Colts have actually missed 32 tackles through three games. That's a ninth worse.

Starting point is 00:25:43 So I think the team that wraps them up and tackles the most consistently could have advantage. Also continue the trend on third down. Stopping the Colts on third down where the Colts are 16 for 46, a 34.8 conversion rate. It's 23 in the NFL. The Rams, though, they've allowed a 25.7 conversion rate on third down. It's the second best in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:26:04 So if you keep the Colts off the field, if you protect the football, if you establish a run game, protect Matthew Stafford, lots of ifs, ifs, ifs, but I do think I like this Rams team. I think this defense is a lot better than people expected. Akella Witherspoon has been an absolute revelation, a great signing. I think this offense is really had a come to Jesus moment, hopefully revelation, a great signing. I think this offense really had a come-to-Jesus moment, hopefully, on the run game, and I think they go into Indianapolis and win a close one. I think they win by a final score of 27-24.

Starting point is 00:26:35 I like it. So I think we're both right there where it's anyone's game, both in the 20s, though, so probably a little more offense than a lot of people are expecting. I do think the run game is going to be the biggest X factor for both, because whether it's, especially if it's Minshew, but whether it's Minshew or Richardson for the Colts, if that run game gets shut down with Zach Moss,

Starting point is 00:26:55 I think they're going to really struggle. So that'll be tough to see. So yeah, guys, if you don't already follow Locked on Colts and Locked on Rams on Twitter and subscribe to both shows on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. We'd also love your ratings and reviews. That definitely helps both shows immensely. And with that, we will see you guys on Friday.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson's Potential Return the X-Factor vs. Los Angeles Rams

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