Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Braden Smith's Health is Vital to Team Success in 2024

Starting point is 00:00:01 Braden Smith's health might be one of the more important factors for this Colts 2024 season. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Thank you all for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Today's episode is brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Terms apply. Hello, everyone. My name is Zach Hicks, your favorite film nerd over at HorseshoeHuddle.com. And today we are talking important X-Factors for this cold season with a little bit of a twist on it. You know, these X-Factors are guys who maybe aren't the superstars or the top names that we're really talking about going into the season. But these are players who will undoubtedly just impact wins and losses going into the 2024 season. And in particular, when it comes to their health, just the fact of these guys being

Starting point is 00:01:10 on the football field next year couldn't be a massive impact on this Colts team. And no, we're not talking Anthony Richardson. We're trying to go a little bit deeper cut. I mean, not super deep cut, but a little bit more deeper cut than Anthony Richardson, because that's the given right there. So we're going to kick this off by talking about right tackle Braden Smith, because I think this is the most important storyline or one of the more important storylines when it comes to this Colts offense and the effectiveness of this Colts offense. One can even argue that outside of Anthony Richardson and Bernhardt Reimman at left tackle, Braden Smith is the third

Starting point is 00:01:46 most important, you know, offensive player on this Colts team. His impact was felt massively last season. I have the numbers here we're going to run through in a second, but just to give an overview on Braden Smith as a player, he was a top 50 pick by the Colts in 2018, has been a fantastic starting right tackle for, you know the entire time since then since he became the starter during that 2018 season at right tackle he has dealt with some injuries last year and that's really where a lot of his issues came last season where it's like when he was on the field Braden Smith was one of the best tackles in football but simply being on the field was the big issue for Braden Smith last year.

Starting point is 00:02:29 He only played in, he played in 10 games, but really it was just nine games that he played over half of the game. He left, I think, three games early last year with injuries. He only was held to 575 total snaps. For comparison, Blake Freeland, the guy who filled in for him most of the time, finished last season with more snaps than Braden Smith did with 701 offensive snaps. And that's never a good sign. I mean, if I told you guys last year, prior to last season, that Braden Smith would be out snapped by Blake Freeland, we would all be very, very concerned. And, you know, again, when you look at the numbers, there's a reason to be concerned there. But when Braden Smith was on the field last year,

Starting point is 00:03:02 really, really great results. His 83.3 overall grade by Pro Football Focus was, I think, six overall among all offensive tackles, getting at least 20% of the overall snaps that Pro Football Focus graded. He was the third highest run blocking tackle in all of football. According to Pro Football Focus, he allowed zero sacks, only two QB hits, and 12 pressures allowed as well. So very, very strong production. If you really want to get a gauge on how important his play was, though, at right tackle, let's look at his backup in Blake Freeland.

Starting point is 00:03:35 And I know this is kind of unfair to Freeland because Freeland was in his rookie season. It's a tough adjustment to the NFL, but I think this is a great comparison just to show how important Braden Smith is to this Colts team. Blake Freeland, in his 701 offensive snaps last year, had a 44.2 pro football focus grade, four sacks allowed, four QB hits, and 37 pressures allowed in those snaps. So in roughly a few more snaps, obviously, than Braden Smith, a little over 100 snaps than Braden Smith. Blake Freeland had, what, 25 more pressures allowed, he had two more QB hits and four

Starting point is 00:04:12 more sacks allowed. And Freeland did jump between playing left tackle and right tackle in a couple of these starts. But overall, you can see that just discrepancy in play right there, especially in the pass blocking department. The run blocking department is even bigger. I want to say Braden Smith was in the 90s with his overall grade for football focus, where Blake Freeland was, I think, a 47 in run blocking grades. So just not great

Starting point is 00:04:37 production there. You could even argue, you know, I don't even think we have to put any kind of disclaimer on here. I think you could argue that the drop from Braden Smith to Blake Freeland is the biggest drop-off from starter to backup on this Colts team because Braden Smith is arguably a top five, top six player on the Colts when it comes to talent and overall production, where Blake Freeland really struggled last year in his rookie debut and in the games following that. So Braden Smith, a very, very important player when he's on the field.

Starting point is 00:05:08 Another big impact when it comes to just simply him being on the field versus off the field is in the run game. I mean, if you look at the run game numbers, I actually did all the math today on this. When Braden Smith played more than 40 snaps last year. So in pretty much every game that he appeared in outside of the Titans game, the second Titans game, we only played in three snaps. The Colts rushed the ball 268 times for 1,242 yards and 13 touchdowns. That's 4.6 yards per carry. And that was all in nine games right there. So not amazing numbers, but 4.6 yards per carry. Like you can win football games with that

Starting point is 00:05:43 right there. Pretty good numbers. In the games that Braden Smith did not appear in, or also counting that Titans game that he only played three snaps in, the Colts ran the ball 211 times for 817 yards, which is 3.87 yards per carry and six touchdowns. And that was in eight games right there. So about almost a yard difference in yards per carry, we're talking 400 yards in run game. It's only one, one extra game, you know, nine games versus eight games. So Brayden Smith's impact on the run game by itself is, is just insurmountable. I mean, it's such a massive, massive difference. They're almost double the touchdowns in the same amount of games are essentially the same amount of games there with Brian Smith in there versus without him in the lineup. So yeah, the big drop off from

Starting point is 00:06:29 Brian Smith to Blake Freeland is massive. And this is where this becomes such an X factor for this Colts team where, you know, the greatest ability in the NFL is availability. And Brian Smith last year did not have that availability because even in the games that he did play, I mean, we saw that Houston Texans game at the end of the year where Braden Smith's having a fantastic game. The Colts are running the ball all over the Texans. And then that last quarter, last quarter and a half, when the Colts really needed to really finish the job

Starting point is 00:06:57 and punch their ticket to the playoffs, Braden Smith's injuries just kept him out of the game. And the Colts rushing attack just just grounded to the halt I mean I want to say Jonathan Taylor's averaging like 10 yards a carry up to that point and and finish the game was still a great number but the Colts were not able to run the ball once Braden Smith left that game uh and and that's not to say that like oh the players at fault here for injuries injuries happen it's part of football but uh again the greatest ability in the NFL is availability.

Starting point is 00:07:25 And if Braden Smith cannot finish games, cannot play in more than nine games this year, then what are we doing here? You know, what are we doing among all the offensive tackles that pro football focus graded with like an 80 plus grade last year, he was the only one to have less than 700, 800 snaps on offense. So he just needs to be on the field this year and he can be on the field this Colts offense can be everything it needs to be obviously Anthony Richardson's health is important too but if Richardson's out there and Shane Steichen's calling the plays the Colts are going to have a productive offensive system going but they need their offensive tackle play to be at that high level or to be what it can be with Bradayden Smith and Barinhart Ryman on the field.

Starting point is 00:08:05 Ryman, for the most part, has stayed healthy. You know, knock on wood, he's been able to stay healthy. He's only missed the one game last year with a concussion. I don't think he missed any time due to injury in his rookie season once he became the starter. So Barinhart Ryman has been relatively healthy. For Brayden Smith, though, it is a big question mark. He hasn't finished seasons. Last year was his most injury-plagued season in his NFL career.

Starting point is 00:08:28 So him simply being on the football field makes the Colts a better team. But he needs to be on the football field next year. It can't be another 9 to 10 games. Even if those 9 to 10 games that we get from Brayden Smith is fantastic offensive football because he's such an impact player. He just needs to be out there for more games that the Colts want to have a chance to make the playoffs. You know, you can't just rely on offensive explosion in the games that Braden Smith plays if he's only going to play like 10 games because then you're at a disadvantage in those other six, seven,

Starting point is 00:08:58 whatever it's going to be. So at the end of the day, you know, Braden Smith's health is a major X factor. I know he had a lot of surgery and things to clean it up here in this offseason. So hopefully that can propel him to playing more games next year. But Braden Smith, man, I mean, this is kind of a complimentary section, but also a worrisome section because it's like when he was on the field last year, he was fantastic. He just needs to be on the field next season. Like that's really the big thing for him. And hopefully he can get out there and finish, you know, a full 17 game stretch for the Colts and

Starting point is 00:09:30 help this team get into the playoffs in 2024. But coming up, we're going to change gears a little bit. You know, we're going to go away from the injury front and talk about two players who just need to get over that hump. You know, if this Colts defense is going to be able to be effective next season, these two players need to get over the hump and prop this Colts defense is going to be able to be effective next season, these two players need to get over the hump and propel this Colts defensive line to greatness, and that's Quiddie Paye and Dio Adangbo. But first, whether you're a Hoosier who needs tickets to go see the Reds, Cubs, White Sox shoot, even locally here with the Indy Indians, game time is an authorized ticket marketplace of Major League Base league baseball which makes getting tickets faster and easier. Prices on the GameTime app actually go down the closer it gets to that first pitch. With killer last minute deals

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Starting point is 00:11:43 news streaming 24-7 on YouTube or on the free Amazon Fire TV channels at part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. All right, Lockdown Colts every day as we're here talking to pass rushers, Quidipe and Dio Dangbo. Now, when it comes to this segment, obviously injuries haven't been as big a concern for these two. I know Quidi Pei has dealt with his fair share the last two seasons, but for the most part, these guys have been relatively healthy with the Colts. But the big thing with these two guys is can they elevate their game past the point that we've currently seen? What we've currently seen from these two players has been fine. It has been solid, good, never really great. I mean, some great stretches, obviously, from like Dio Dangbo, but for the most part, it's been really

Starting point is 00:12:29 solid from these two guys. But can they take it to the next step? When we look at this Colts team and what they have at pass rusher this next season, it's easy to get excited. You look at DeForest Buckner, who's consistently one of the best defensive tackles in football, even though he's not hitting double digit sacks, he's playing some great football. And anyone who tells you otherwise doesn't know what they're watching out there. DeForest Buckner is a fantastic player. Leatu Latu is coming in here with a lot of expectations and skill. And I think we're going to see a really great season from him as a rookie.

Starting point is 00:13:00 And then Samson Ebukon, I mean, you're getting really good things from him as a veteran pass rusher in the room. So I think all of those guys kind of have relatively simple expectations that you know that they're all going to hit or at least get close to. I mean, Leotu Alatu, obviously a rookie, so there's a wider range. But for the most part, I think it's relatively easy to expect him and to see him hit those expectations. But when it comes to Quidi Payne and Dayo Dengbo, there's the ultimate question of can they, you know, bust through that, that they're just right there on the fringe. They're right there on the fringe of becoming high impact players, like really, really high impact players.

Starting point is 00:13:36 Can they get there though? Can they get through this bubble that they're in and, and make this Colts pass rush just even more deadly? Because if they, if they just continue what they've been doing, it's fine. Like the Colts pass rush will be good next year, especially if Latu Latu hits his expectations. But if one or both of these guys can really burst through and do something they haven't done yet in the NFL, then we're looking at one of the best pass rushing rooms in all of football.

Starting point is 00:14:04 I mean, let's look at Quidipe, for instance. Quidipe has been a pretty consistent player since day one with the Colts. I mean, his rookie season, he was a slightly better pass rusher and a slightly worse run defender. The last two seasons, though, he's been basically the same thing, which is a below average pass rusher or to average pass rusher and an elite run defender. That's really good. That's really good. I will take that at defensive end all day. He's consistently had around 10 to 11 sacks slash QB

Starting point is 00:14:32 hits. So if you combine those two per season over all three years, his his pass rush win rate has hovered around 10% each season, which isn't great. It's fine. Like it is what it is. You'd want that to be better, but it's fine. You know, uh, the thing for him though, if he can become like a 12, 13, 14, 15% pass rush win rate guy, like, like a Samson Debucom is for instance, then we're looking at an elite run defender and above average pass rusher, or, know, fringe, fringe, really good pass rusher that would change the, what we're looking at with him in like huge, it would be so huge if he could just hit that, those, those peaks there. And he's had stretches of play where he has been, you know, that 15% pass rush win rate guy, that guy who's been getting more sacks and QB hits, but he's never

Starting point is 00:15:21 done that over the course of an entire season. So if Quidipe can really turn that corner as a pass rusher with all this extra help around him, this Colts pass rush is going to be, again, one of the better ones in football. So for him, it's really about just taking that slightly next step as a pass rusher. Go from being below average to average and take that next step into above average and be more of an impact player in that regard. Dio Dengbo's slightly different story where every year his his QB hits and his sacks have gone up you know he's gotten better every single year in that regard but when you look at the advanced numbers it's still never really been super promising you know his past rush

Starting point is 00:16:00 win rate has actually been lower than Quiddy P every single year. He's around that 8% to 9% range, which is, again, pretty below average when it comes to applying consistent pressure. So for these guys to really take that next step, they're getting the sacks. Quidipe had eight sacks last year. Dino Dango had 12 sacks last year, if you go by Pro Football Focus's metric for those respective numbers. But they're not getting the constant pressure. And that's really what the Colts need up front is that constant pressure. The sacks are awesome.

Starting point is 00:16:30 I love the sacks. We're not going to complain about sacks whatsoever, but constant pressure just takes so much of the pain and torment that we're going to see from this Colts secondary next year. It takes it off of our minds because, look, every time the opponent's dropping back, they're getting Liotu, Latu, DeForest, Buckner, Quidipe, Dayo Dangbo, whoever it's going to be, creating positive opportunities for this defense. But those guys need to take this step. Dayo Dangbo needs to be a guy

Starting point is 00:16:58 who's consistently getting pressure. He's going to be a sub-package player who's not great against the run. So far right now, again, he's going to be a sub package player who's not great against the run. So far right now, again, he's been converting his few opportunities into sacks and QB hits, which has been great to see. But imagine if those opportunities were just more plentiful, more bountiful, like if he was actually creating more opportunities for himself rather than having to convert on the few opportunities he has. It's really about taking that next step for him. And same with Quidipe, where he has had some production on the wins that he has had off that right side, but it's about converting them more into consistent pressure and really forcing the

Starting point is 00:17:37 quarterback to move within the pocket. Both these guys are very capable. They're very, very talented players. And by no means am I saying these guys are bad football players. They have been very good utility players for this Colts team. But if one or two of these or one or both of these guys can take that next step from being a utility player to being a legitimate difference maker on this team, then this Colts defensive line is just really cooking with fire. I mean, again, Laotu Latu, we have reasonable expectations for him that are pretty high, and I think he's going to hit them. DeForest Buckner, fantastic player, always has been. And then Samson Ebukom, who is a really consistent veteran player. We know what those guys are getting,

Starting point is 00:18:16 but if Quidi Pei and Dayo Dengbo can really turn it on this year and go from being inconsistent, but inconsistent, but productive players to well above average and consistent players, then we're looking at a really great defensive line in Indy. And I don't think this is crazy to ask. I think these guys can hit it.

Starting point is 00:18:35 They have the potential and they've shown the ability in the past. So I'm really keeping my eye on these two players in camp. I'm keeping an eye on these guys in the early games this season because this is really, I don't want to say make or break for these guys because Quidipe is obviously kind of extended with that fifth year option. Dio Dambo could be extended as well. I'm not going to say it's make or break for them, but I'm going to say it's like, it would be great to see. It would be really great to see these guys take that step and become a little bit more for this Colts team going forward. But coming up, we're going to talk about one more player

Starting point is 00:19:05 that kind of is the encapsulation of what I've talked about with these two other players. You know, with Braden Smith, it's about health. With Quidi Payne, Dio Dane, both about taking that next step. Well, Juju Brents, it's kind of about both. You know, can Juju Brents build off of a decent rookie season? And can he stay healthy going into his sophomore campaign? All right, Locked On Colts, every day as we are back,

Starting point is 00:19:33 we're talking cornerback Juju Brents. And this one's a little bit different from the others because the Colts cornerback room has been a talk all off season of, you know, do they need to add more players here? Do they need to get better at here? Do they need to get better at corner? Can you win with the current guys they have at cornerback where, you know, we talk about Quitty and Dio and Brian Smith, we know that these guys are solid players to, you know, above average players in Brian Smith's case. And it's more, you know, other issues that

Starting point is 00:19:58 we're really looking at when it comes to a guy like Juju Brents, though, we don't really know exactly what he is yet. We saw some good flashes last year. I think there were some really positive developments in his rookie season, but I don't think we're there enough with him yet to say, you know, we don't have to worry about cornerback or one of our cornerback spots is good because Juju Brents is this solidified, you know, long-term option there. As of right now, again, it's looking pretty solid. I think the one interception and five pass breakups and nearly 300 coverage snaps, good solid season, 17% force in completion rate was the highest in the quarterback room. So did some good things there. Had one of the lower

Starting point is 00:20:36 missed tackle rates in the quarterback room. I'm pretty happy with that. That's one of my bigger things there. And I think he had some really good flashes against DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley in particular in that middle season stretch against the Jaguars and the Titans. So I think we saw some good things from Juju Brents. But ultimately, again, like what we said with Brayden Smith, where it's like the best ability is availability. And Juju Brents didn't show that in his first year. He missed a lot of time in training camp with an injury, dealt with injuries throughout the entire season. Even when he got back out on the field, another injury would sideline him and then there would be some

Starting point is 00:21:14 concerns from there. But I think when he was on the field, he did some good things. So I'm cautiously optimistic about what he can be. Again, I don't know if he can be a cornerback one or be some superstar. There were some concerns like the like the Nico Collins big play. I know he got left on an island in cover for when he shouldn't have. But, you know, you don't want to see your your your top corner getting burned like that on national TV in a playoff game, essentially not the best showing there, obviously, from from the Colts defense or from what you wanted to see. There were some other moments where he could have been more aggressive or he missed the ball or, you know, just kind of had some coverage mishaps. But again, I think there were some good things.

Starting point is 00:21:53 I mean, in man coverage, he was fantastic last year. Had some really good flashes in man coverage. The Colts just don't play much man coverage, so it's hard to really say. But yeah, overall, I think Juju Brents, it's really about just seeing what he can do here in year two. And can he stay healthy? Can he stay healthy out there? Can he get the constant production when he's on the field again? Can he turn some of these near misses into more pass breakups? Because he has it all. I mean, he has every single thing you're looking for in a cornerback prospect or young cornerback player. I mean, he's got the super long arms. He's got the length. He's got he's got the height. He's got the foot speed. I mean,

Starting point is 00:22:29 he's he's such a like an unnatural player to watch on film because the four or five speed, he looks a lot slower than the four or five speed on film. Like the long speed is not perfect, but he makes up for it with having this great jump ability, this great explosion downhill, this great quickness and fluidity within his short movements to where you feel like he can be such a dominant player within that zero to 15 yard space. And then you can have some issues going over the top, but the zero to 15, he's going to be a fantastic player. So I'm really curious on how the Colts are going to utilize him this year. I do think there are some opportunities when it comes to some of their third down plays, you know, cover three

Starting point is 00:23:09 Mabel, you can have him on the backside, have him press coverage on that backside and really compete with guys on these third down calls and, and take away that top option like they did it with DeAndre Hopkins at times and Calvin Ridley at times last year. But, you know, that's all mood if he can't stay healthy, you know. And what concerns me a little bit about his health is I don't want to make the comparison to like a Paris Campbell, where Paris Campbell, obviously, it was just one thing after another. And it was a really unfortunate early career for Paris Campbell. But with Juju Brents, I got some concerns in the same way when I was watching that rookie season where it's like,

Starting point is 00:23:48 every time he got healthy, it wasn't like it was the same injury popping up again. It was just different injuries, so many different injuries that that sidelined him. And they weren't like minor little scrapes. They were injuries that sidelined him for a couple of weeks or or, you know, hampered him for an entire training camp and such like that. So it really comes down to the health. And Chris Ballard honestly said a lot of it, too, in the postseason presser. For him to constantly bring up health like that when he was talking about Juju Brents, I thought was a very important thing where it's like the Colts are also in that same boat

Starting point is 00:24:22 where he's got to be out there, he's got to stay healthy. He's got to get on the field because having 300 coverage snaps, your rookie season, when you were essentially handed the starting job, you know, when he was going to be healthy, obviously that is, I mean, that's,

Starting point is 00:24:36 that's an important thing. He's got to be able to be able to get out there and, and, and get more snaps than just the two 95 is what he finished with last year. He's got to have more than two 95, obviously going forward. But I'm optimistic with Juju Brents. I think there were some good things on film.

Starting point is 00:24:50 I think, you know, coverage wise and where his eyes were a lot of times were good. I think he was competitive at the catch point in a lot of ways. He was physical in the run game, had some really good moments where he could have come with some more interceptions and some more ball production. And a lot of his issues really came down to, you know, communication issues, which is kind of expected out of a guy who missed all of his rookie training camps. So Juju Brents, I am optimistic about. I do think there can be some good things with him. And obviously, this Colts defense can take a huge step forward if he can take a positive leap in year two. If he can go from, you know, a flashing young rookie to a solid year two player,

Starting point is 00:25:30 this Colts defense is going to be in a really, really good place or a much better place, obviously, than where we're projecting it right now. So Juju Brent's obviously a big part of this all. Quidipe and Dio D'Ambo on the defensive line. And then Brandon Smith on offense, like we said at the beginning of the show where his on off splits were massive. These are some guys who, again,

Starting point is 00:25:49 they're not like underrated players, but these are four players where if they can stay on the field and take little steps forward, like doesn't have to be these massive jumps to superstardom, but just little steps forward. This Colts team can be in the playoffs next year, be a competitive football team throughout all of 2024. That all I have for today guys though thank you for joining us this week on Locked On Colts Jake will be back with you guys next week with an interview with Eddie McGilvra

Starting point is 00:26:15 the guy who's worked with every Colts defensive lineman on this team it's a really fun interview that Jake is excited to push out there early next week. Before I get out of here, though, I do remind you guys that Locked On has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. And now it's also available on the Amazon Fire TV in the free Fire TV channels app. Locked On Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts. Plus Locked On. Locked On plus our national shows covering every single league. Find Locked On Sports Today now available plus our national shows covering every single league. Find Locked On Sports today. Now available on the free Fire TV channels app.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Braden Smith's Health is Vital to Team Success in 2024

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