Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts breakdown with Underdog Fantasy's Hayden Winks

Episode Date: June 2, 2021

On today's episode, Evan is joined by Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy to breakdown the Indianapolis Colts from a fantasy football perspective. Also, Evan and Hayden sprinkle in some general offseason talk as well.Is Jonathan Taylor going to be a fantasy stud? Bet on it with the way Taylor ended his rookie campaign. How about Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack as potential handcuff options alongside Taylor?Then, we dive into Carson Wentz. How will Wentz look from a fantasy perspective, plus an important rebound year on the field for Indy's new QB1? Also, will Indy have buyer's remorse on Wentz?Closing out the show, Evan and Hayden dive into the Colts' weapons, plus a potential leap from their defense. Where do the Colts stack up in the AFC South and the conference overall?All of this, plus so much more, in a jam-packed episode you won't want to miss! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello everybody, welcome back to our latest episode of Locked On Colts for the Locked On Podcast Network. Today's always your host, Evan Satter, joined by a very special guest in today's episode, Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy, formerly of NBC Sports Edge. He's been doing great work for a while now on fantasy, NFL draft, NFL itself. Hayden, how are you doing today, man?

Great to be here. I'm doing very good. I'm excited to talk about the Colts. Lots of moving parts. And then this year in particular with fantasy, obviously a lot of Jonathan Taylor buzz and rightfully so. Let's hit this straight off on that, Hayden. Like I mentioned, you just joined over with Underdog Fantasy. You and Josh Norris have been doing amazing stuff over there so far. How big are you on Jonathan Taylor becoming really a true top five running back this year in 2021? Because it seems like over the last part of 2020, he really hit another gear there. Yeah, he really did. He's being drafted as the RB six on underdog fantasy right now, which is a best ball site where you can just draft and then forget about setting your lineup. So you can do a couple drafts this offseason. And he's being drafted as the RB six, actually

the sixth overall player. So basically everybody in the fantasy space is super sold on Jonathan Taylor. I am too. The one thing I am kind of wondering about is how many receptions he's going to get. And I don't think that the Colts necessarily have to use him that often as a receiver for their own team. But for fantasy purposes, how many receptions you catch makes a big difference. So that would be my only concern.

Obviously, between the tackles, he's as electric as any back in the league. He's going to get plenty of goal-line opportunities. I'm not really worried about the Colts' offense, especially behind their offensive line. So I think Jonathan Taylor deserves to be like a borderline first-round pick in drafts. I think that RB6 and 6 overall is getting a little aggressive, but when you're that talented and you know he's going to get 20 carries per game,

it's hard not to be pretty bullish on him. Speaking of Taylor, just with his bell cow tech status right now, and Marcus Bury, the OC, did mention to us today that he is really in that lead back for Walker, what happened this past year. But they did re-sign Marlon Mack to a one-year deal to come off a torn Achilles. Naeem Hines as well is their pass catching back, like you mentioned, and he's really mostly been their guy in those situations. If you're in a best ball league or any sort of fantasy league and you're looking at Mack and Hines,

do you at all tempted to go and maybe handcuff Taylor with one of those two guys? Or do you feel like maybe Taylor's just the guy at this point? I thought Marlon Mack could actually play, but now that they've committed money to and capital to Naeem Hines and Jonathan Taylor, I don't really see him being too involved. He's not a good enough receiver to take Naeem Hines off the field. And we know he's not a good enough between the tackles runner to take Jonathan Taylor off the field. I do think that Naeem Hines is kind of interesting late in drafts right now,

especially in PPR formats. At underdog, we're a half PPR, so he's not as valuable on underdog as he is on other places. But ultimately, I think that's just going to be Jonathan Taylor on early downs, Naeem Hines on passing downs. The one other thing is we have to evaluate Carson Wentz because historically Carson Wentz is not the type of quarterback to check down to running backs. He loves to keep his eyes

downfield. That's why I think that T.Y. Hilton and maybe Michael Pittman are better fits than Naeem Hines and Jonathan Taylor with Carson Wentz. Just because historically, if you look back at those Eagles pass catchers with Wentz, every single season, the leading receiver among the running backs caught less than 50 passes. So if Naeem Hines is going to be the outlier in that situation, you're kind of stealing away targets from Jonathan Taylor. So it becomes really tricky. So I'm probably avoiding all the running backs except for Jonathan Taylor, mostly because Carson Wentz likely isn't going to be throwing to the running backs that often.

Speaking of Carson Wentz, Hayden, there's been a lot of palpable buzz around Indy and also other places saying that Carson Wentz, Reenoy, or Frank Reich, he's going to bounce back. How big of a bounce back is going to be to be determined when we get on the field here in September. But before we get into that, what's your thoughts on the overall compensation the Colts gave up before the draft for Carson Wentz?

After a historically bad season, he had a future first-round pick more like a not in next year's draft, plus a third-round pick in this past year's draft. What was your thoughts on Wentz in 2020 and the compensation the Colts gave up to get him? Well, there's no getting around it. He was maybe the worst starting quarterback in the league last year. I think you can point to some contextual things. The Eagles' offensive line was completely battered. Their receiver core was among the league's worst as well.

So he was given basically nothing to work with. I thought he was getting, he was looking for the big play too often. And maybe that's something that Frank Reich knows how to kind of reel him back in and play more composed. And I also don't think that he's going to have to be in these bad situations just because we trust the Colts defense more than we were trusting the aging Eagles defense last year.

And the other thing is the division, just like Carson Wentz kind of was dealing with last year. We don't think that the Jaguars, the Texans, and the Titans are going to be that imposing on defense. So Carson Wentz will have a bounce back season. Will it be enough uh to get the Colts to the next level and pay off that price tag that they paid I'm not sure about that um but at the same time like it's hard to find upside at quarterbacks if it's not via the draft

so I thought the Colts roster was good enough to make a splash move for a quarterback and once like like last year like Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson wasn't going to become available this offseason, they basically had no other choices. So I don't really mind the move. At least they're chasing a little bit upside here. Phillip Rivers last year, Hayden, was kind of a lower tier quarterback in fantasy. How do you feel?

Do you feel like Carson Wentz in this Colts offense is very much run heavy? Jonathan Taylor's probably going to get even more of their bulk of their touches in this offense in 2021. Do you feel like he'sz in this Colts offense is very much run heavy? Jonathan Taylor's probably going to get even more of their bulk of their touches in this offense in 2021. Do you feel like he's really just like a low upside play, unless he's all of a sudden just out of nowhere, Frank Riper by his career in his 2017 once again? Yeah, I'm kind of with you. I think that it's going to be more of a balanced offense.

The defense is good enough to not make them force into too many crazy shootouts. The one difference between Carson Wentz and Phillip Rivers for fantasy is Wentz at adds a little bit of a rushing element that we all know that Phillip Rivers completely didn't. So right now I have Carson Wentz like as a low end quarterback too. And that's basically where he's being drafted. I don't have like a strong preference either way for Carson Wentz.

I think we'll have some big weeks when the Colts getting some shootouts, but I think in a perfect world, I'm guessing the Colts want to win games like 24 to 21, give Jonathan Taylor 20 touches, and not let Carson Wentz have to drop back like 45 times. Last one here on Wednesday before we dive into some more offensive weapons for the Colts who could break out here in 2020 from a fantasy perspective. Just from the overall standpoint of Wentz coming to Indy, and the Colts kind of betting on Wentz to be their guy for the next year plus I may be over the duration of his contract

and longer if all goes well do you like the gamble the Colts made with Carson Wentz and maybe looking back on it now when you see the Bears who are spot ahead of the Colts in the draft trade up to get Justin Fields and New England getting Matt Jones at 15 do you feel like that's maybe buyer's remorse there where they could have maybe gone up and got Fields or Matt Jones? Or do you like the game where they met on Carson Wentz, especially the conviction Frank Reich has on them? The Colts are in a weird situation where they have a win-now roster. I'm not sure if they're like full-blown contenders,

but they weren't in a situation like some of those other teams where they're like legit trying to rebuild. Like in the Patriots sense, they had so much money that they were kind of forced into rebuild. I'm not sure if the, the Colts would have been fully capable to reset. So I was okay with them going with the veteran. I really liked Justin Fields and I actually like,

I'm one of the few people that actually think that Mac Jones could play too. So I understand the criticism. I think that they gave up a decent amount for Carson Wentz, but the offensive line was set. The defense has been playing better than it ever has the last couple years. So I understood why they wanted to go to the veteran market, especially when you have connections. And the NFL is all about connections.

So it makes a little bit of sense to me. I'm not sure if I would have done it, but of all the teams to do it, I think the Colts were the one that made the most sense. Bilt Bar is the best tasting protein bar ever. Did you know that Bilt Bar has nine delicious flavors plus the occasional limited time flavors as well? When you talk to a Bilt Bar fan, they're definitely passionate about their favorites and there's so many to choose from. And there is something for everyone over at Bilt Bar, which is easily, from my own experience, the best tasting protein bar ever. It tastes just like a chocolate candy bar.

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low prices all the parts your car will ever need coltscans go to rockauto.com right now and write locked on l-o-c-k-e-d-o-n in the how's your boss box a couple underrated guys here i want to hit on from a fancy perspective hayden with you before we dive into the main feature guys, T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman, for example. Molly Cox was a very interesting guy last year. Really broke out in the scene on PFF. He was one of their top-rated tight ends. But he got a lot of touches early on in the season,

but he kind of fizzled out of the offense later on in the year. Do you like him as sort of like a low upside play with Jack Doyle getting older? They draft a rookie tight end. We know rookie tight ends take a little bit of time to implement. Do you feel like Mo Alley Cox could be a guy that could roll the dice on and be a legit tight end starter in fantasy this year? So in underdog fantasy, it's 18 rounds. We don't have kickers or defenses.

So the Mo Alley Coxes, those deep sleepers, are actually players that ended up getting drafted. So right now he's the tight end 29 on underdog fantasy. Both Josh and I have them ranked a little bit higher than that. I think for the, for the same reasons, I think that this offense historically has used a tight end. And I think that Mo Alley Cox could play a little bit. He's such a huge player that I think that in the red zone,

there's a chances where he can get a couple of touchdowns. Ultimately he's probably going to be a guy that maybe he's in your lineup a couple of times per season. Cause he scored a couple of touchdowns, but for the most part, he's a, he's a low ceiling play, but that's most tight ends. There's only like six or seven fantasy tight ends that like actually move the needle. The rest of them are like averaging 35 yards. And if they score a touchdown grade, if they don't, then they're irrelevant.

Kylan Granson, the rookie tight end, the draft out of smu in the fourth round hate and as i just mentioned rookie tight ends do take a little bit of time to develop but obviously kyle pits the exception there in atlanta's gonna get enforced but a lot of targets there in his first season but outside of pits we know the colts love using tight ends carson wentz loves targeting tight ends he's kind of stepping into that trey burton role that we saw the colts use last year as i moved tight end. Do you kind of like Granson a little bit compared to other rookie tight ends like Pat Friermuth has Ebron in front of him? We also have Tommy Trimble in Carolina. There's a couple of guys ahead of him. Do you feel like Granson could be sort of that sleeper rookie tight end behind Kyle Pitts this

year? So I did dynasty rankings before the draft and then after the draft in Granson was the was the tight end that I moved up the most after the draft just because I thought he had some receiving ability coming into the draft, but he seemed pretty scheme dependent just because of his size and the way that they used him. But the Colts are one of those teams where it's like the exact mold. It is like that Doyle role where he can move out. I think that the Colts have a long-term plan, uh, for this year,

I'm expecting absolutely nothing. Like you said, that's just the way that rookies work. You're basically an outlier if you're actually producing, but for dynasty purposes, I think that Granson deserves to be on the radar. Um, he has a little bit of athleticism to him. He's in that receiving role. And this is one of those offenses that actually is looking to use those type of players so for dynasty purposes i've heard i've heard of worst targets let's

hop over to wide receivers now hayden and ty hilton's been a player ever since andrew luck left he's been very inconsistent on the field just the quarterback chemistry educated reset and philip really wasn't there we saw maybe in the last portion to 2020 he started to click a little bit there but he has obviously lost a step or two since Andrew Luck has left. What's your overall thoughts on T.Y. Hilton? We've heard from the Colts they want to get more deep shots implemented in 2021, so Hilton's more of a deep shot threat, but he has lost some of that speed a little bit. What's your overall opinion of how T.Y. Hilton could function with Carson Wentz at quarterback? It's certainly a scheme upgrade for him. him uh philip rivers is just not known

for the for the deep ball and that's exactly what carson wentz biggest strength is and i think that ty hilton was kind of like unfairly grouped in with like the aj green veterans from last year where people thought that he was totally dust but actually late in the season i thought that ty hilton looked decent and i don't think that he has reaped that AJ green level where he's like so banged up that he just doesn't have the explosiveness. We're not going to get peak T.Y. Hilton. No one's expecting that, but I do think there's going to be plenty of room for like 40,

50 yard touchdowns where he will become like a top 30, top 36 receiver on a week. So I think that he deserves to be drafted in most fantasy leagues, particularly in best ball, where you're not setting your roster each week. The computer is just picking your optimal lineup. So that just means that you want to be picking players that have a chance for a big game. And then obviously that's exactly what T.Y. Hilton brings.

Michael Pippen Jr., Hayden, is a player that is really drawing some buzz the way he finished off 2020. He was injured in the first part of 2020, then really broke out, especially in that playoff game against Buffalo with 100 yards receiving. And I think he led the Colts in targets over the last five or six weeks of the season as well. Do you think we're reaching the territory now, Hayden, where Michael Pippen Jr. is taking that baton from T.Y. Hilton

as the Colts WR1 moving forward? He's being drafted like that. Underdog fantasy, Michael Pittman is the wide receiver 46 right now, and T.Y. Hilton is the wide receiver 59. So for most people, I think rightfully so, they are projecting Michael Pittman to be the number one. I think that T.Y. Hilton's probably going to have bigger games, but I think that Michael Pittman is going to be more of the bankable player. I thought that he had a really fine rookie season. I thought I went to USC and I loved Michael Pittman coming out of college.

He's got that big body profile. I thought he has enough explosiveness to, to create yards after the catch in some situations. So I think that maybe T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman are similar ish in yards. I would expect Michael Pittman to catch more passes and T.Y. Hilton maybe to haveman are similar-ish in yards. I would expect Michael Pittman to catch more passes and T.Y. Hilton maybe to have more 30, 40-yard plays. Harris Campbell, Hayden, is another one who, unfortunately,

has gotten a really bad case of the injury bug the last couple years. I think a lot was just bad luck with the way he injured his season last year. Harrison Smith right on his knee. He hears a pop in his knees after the rest of the year on the first play of the second game. He had a very good week one in Jacksonville before that happened. And then obviously in 2019, just injury riddled from all over the place from his leg to his arm.

And I think he had a concussion as well at one point Hayden, but Paris Campbell, we've heard from the Colts this year health permitting, obviously that he's has a big plan for 2021 to maybe finally break out in the scene there. What's your thoughts on Paris Campbell, what you saw in college, because unfortunately he's entering year three now and he's barely played

any sort of reps. What's your opinions of Paris Campbell and what he could do. And it could even be a player that from the fancy perspective, they could finally break out and maybe make some noise in 2021. So Paris Campbell is super explosive. That's the thing that we kind of have to wait for training camp to see what the reporters are saying, if how much control over his knee he has and just if he's back to normal.

The other concern with Paris Campbell is just Carson Wentz. Like we're talking about how Carson Wentz is such a good scheme for, for, for T.Y. Hilton and for Michael Pittman as downfield receivers, Carson Wentz just never throws the ball underneath. I think last year, Carson Wentz only had eight the ball underneath. I think last year, Carson Wentz only

had eight shallow crosses per Sports Info Solutions, which is just insane for a team that was forced into a lot of passes. So he's just not a great scheme fit for Carson Wentz. I think that Carson Wentz is going to start falling in love with T.Y. Hill and Michael Pittman. And I would be pretty surprised if Paris Campbell had a big season this year. I think just him being back to a role player from the slot would be a win for the Colts, which is just unfortunate because I thought Paris Campbell was going to have a huge season last year. I think Phillip Rivers would have loved Paris Campbell over the middle. So we'll see. If he has a healthy season, you can build upon that going into his

fourth season. I would say that would be a win for Paris Campbell. Let's flip to the defense real quick. And before we just dive into some overall Colts offseason talk for the last few minutes of the show, but the Colts added Quiddie Paye, the edge rusher out of Michigan with their first pick. I still don't know how he slid the 21, which was the talent he showed on tape, but you add him to the mix next to the Forest Buckner, you have Darius Leonard, you have an emerging secondary, some young pieces as well. They were a top 10 defense last year, adding in pay to the mix, Hayden. Do you think from a fan's perspective,

they could be a top five defense here in 2021? It's certainly possible. If you look at their schedule, it's just wide open again, just because of the division. And I think that Quiddie Paye has a lot of explosiveness. I think he's going to help out DeForest Buckner. I'm not ruling out Justin Houston being re-signed. You can correct me if I'm wrong there,

but the Colts have some money to bring in somebody if they want to. And I think that Justin Houston adding more depth to the edge group would be a win, but the corners are good. I like the scheme. It's a very conservative scheme. And obviously just letting DeForest Buckner wreck, have it up the middle is a good thing, but anytime it's the Jaguars and the Texans,

and maybe we see the Titans regress a little bit, I think that division is just wide open for the Colts. And that schedule, even if the Colts aren't as good just from a talent perspective because they were so good last year, I think just being in that division keeps them right in that top 10 mix. Bet online is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your sports action. Baseball, scenes, and full swing air track, all the action are a bet online. So is the NBA playoffs as well.

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welcome bonus on your first deposit. Again, that's 50% off your first deposit with BetOnline with the promo code LOCKEDON. L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N. BetOnline. Your online sportsbook experts. Looking at the AFC South as a whole hate, and obviously the Julio Jones thing is a huge domino

right now because Tennessee is one of the betting favorites and if they do land Julio Jones that could change things right now but how do you view the Colts among the AFC South the Texans are obviously a joke this year in 2021 the Jaguars like Trevor Lawrence but they're I think a year or two away from really making some noise there it's really between Tennessee and Indianapolis how do you feel that those two teams stack up in the AFC South right now? And if Julio does happen, maybe that does flip things over to Tennessee. It's funny, Josh Norris and I just did a division winners podcast on the Underdog Football Show. And when it came to the AFC, Josh and I were in agreement

that we did not want to be betting on the Titans just because of the coaching changes over the last couple of years. They lost a lot of guys on both sides of the ball. Everyone makes a big fuss on offense, but they're changing their entire secondary. So Josh and I came to the consensus that the Colts are the best team in the division. That's putting some faith in Carson Wentz. He has to get better than what he was last year. But just the entire organization seems in a good spot.

I love the front office, love the coaching staff, the rest of the team on defense and the offensive line. And the skill staff, the rest of the team on defense and the offensive line, and the skill position group is getting better too. Ultimately, we settled on the Colts. I would be betting on the Colts to win the AFC South, and maybe they could pull off an upset in the playoffs too. Looking as well just at the offseason too, adding in Carson Wentz, drafting Quidi Pei, the Colts really staying conservative and free A&TT too Chris Ballard has really been all about that and not really spending much money

and they're saving that money I believe for Darius Leonard and Brady Smith extensions kind of soon obviously Quentin Nelson's going to reset the offensive guard market as well what's your overall thoughts on how the Colts did this offseason adding in the pieces necessary where they needed and also saving that money it sounds like here for those future extents for the young guys yeah it's funny uh ballard's very conservative in his approach which i think is a good thing i think you see a lot of other gms and front offices get too aggressive and at the wrong times and i think that ballard's big two moves obviously bringing in deforest buckner which was perfect that their cover two

defense needs that space eater in the middle otherwise they'll just get completely gashed against the run. So I think the DeForest Buckner trade made a lot of sense. We'll see what the Carson Wentz, what the Carson Wentz trade does, but I thought it was at the, at least at the right time, the Colts had to make a move somewhere. I don't think that they could have been banking on one of the rookies to fall all the way to them.

And they would have had to give up a lot of capital to move up to get one of these rookie quarterbacks. So it's a gamble. I'm not sure if it's actually going to pay off, but Ballard's always very calculated in his moves and the Colts are rarely in the situations where they have a bunch of dead money on their books. They can remain pretty flexible moving forward. So I think Ballard just like he's one of the more just headsy GMs in the league, I think the Colts will remain competitive for a long time because of that.

Yeah, totally agree with you there, Hayden. And last point I wanted to hit on with you before we close out today's show, appreciate the time as always. Let's just say hypothetically, Carson Wentz plays at a similar level to Phillip Rivers did in 2020, average to above average in some situations. Where would you rank the Colts in that circumstance in the AFC? So the Chiefs and the Ravens,

and I think now the Browns are in that group where like, I think they're like legit Super Bowl contenders. And then beyond that, you get into like your Los Angeles Chargers, I think deserve that, the Titans, the Steelers. I think that's kind of where the Colts slide in. I think they're maybe like a Tier 2 or Tier 3 team. Right now, if I was just ranking them off the top of my head, maybe they're like the 10th or 12th best team in the league.

If Carson Wentz returns to those MVP years, all of a sudden, they're in that Browns group where they can actually make a run at the Super Bowl. It all just comes down to Carson Wentz and hopefully the familiarity goes a long way. Hopefully their left tackle spot gets cleared up and maybe they find another edge rusher. Maybe Ballard's got something up his sleeve with the cap space they have available right now. But I think that they're in a good spot, especially in that division. I think they're going to win a lot of ball games for the next couple of years. Hayden last one here for you as well.

Just for those out there listening and wondering what underdog fantasy is because obviously you and Josh Norris went over there and you guys doing great work so far, but those Colton's out there who don't, who don't know about underdog fantasy and the work you guys do just a real quick synopsis for the listeners out there who might be interested in coming on board their underdog. So the first thing is I'll give all of you guys $25 for free. If you use my promo code

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We have $50 entry fees. And then the big one's the $25 best ball mania too. So the promo code's Hayden Winks in Underdog Fantasy. I think it's a good spot. Even if you only want to do, if you're only playing against your friends, do one of these $3 leagues. That way you can be prepared for your actual fantasy football draft against your high school buddies

Hayden hey man this is a lot of fun I'm glad to get you on the podcast for the first time Colts fans go ahead and follow Hayden on Twitter if you're not already at Hayden Winks and please go over to Underdog Fantasy him and Josh Norris do awesome stuff over there Hayden appreciate the time today man thank you uh go Colts too