Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Chris Ballard's Biggest Bets Are Falling FLAT

Starting point is 00:00:00 Despite the two-game win streak, the Indianapolis Colts have a lot of issues stemming from their lackluster offseason. Let's get to it. You are Locked-on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Colts. I'm Zach Hicks. That's Jake Arthur, and on today's episode, we're letting Jake just get passionate about something that is bugging him with this Indianapolis Colts team. So on segment three, we'll try to run.

Starting point is 00:00:36 reconcile everything that we've talked about in this episode. Segment two, we'll talk about the defense of acquisitions this offseason, how it feels really half-baked on that side of the ball. I guess that's the best way to put it. But segment one, we're going to start off by talking about the offense and some of the issues when it came to their off-season plan with the offense as well. All that and much more on today's episode, though, which is brought to you by our friends over at Game Time.

Starting point is 00:00:59 Download the GameTime app, create an account and use code locked on for $20 off of your first purchase. So we're going to kick it off with the offense. And again, I want to preface this by saying this is going to be a fairly negative episode, despite the Colts being on a two-game winning streak. But I do think a lot of the issues we're going to talk about today could be like projecting forward, I guess, with the rest of the year and just their hopes of making the playoffs are going further than that this season. And you want to start with the offense.

Starting point is 00:01:26 So I'm going to give you the floor here to get some things off your chest. I'll be the one who tries to level it out afterwards and I'll react to kind of what you say. but you've had some issues with, again, just the overall approach on offense and defense from this offseason. So let's kick it off with the offense and everything they did there. Yeah. And again, not to be a negative, Nancy, but this episode has kind of been birth from a couple just off-air personal conversations I've had just like in the last few days. And it's like, well, you and I know if we're talking to people in real life that want to talk about this stuff, then we probably need to address it. on the show. So I'm seeing this and the Colts are on a two-game win streak and you look at why it is. You know, it's kind of it's Jonathan Taylor. It's the offensive line. Some timely things happening

Starting point is 00:02:19 in the passing game. But really it's just, you know, they're kind of taking advantage of inferior competition at this point because we saw what it looked like against Baltimore and Kansas city. But I just look at this thing and we still have to kind of think about what happens at the end of this year. Like if they make the playoffs, if they don't, do they blow it all up? And I look at it and I'm like, I don't see how Chris Ballard has done anything to salvage his job at this point. Because it feels to me like they've won these last couple games in spite of what the offseason plan was. He made some, not just him, but like the decision makers in general made some really big bets this year that are really not paying off to the degree that they wanted to.

Starting point is 00:03:06 So Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce was like priority 1, 1A, basically, right? And I don't think it was a bad idea at all to re-sign those guys. I think it needed to be done. But that's, that was, those were the crown jewels of this entire offseason. Daniel Jones coming off the Achilles. He has, you know, you could say regressed. lot of people are bringing up that he's like the New York Giants Jones at this point. I do have some optimism that it'll get better, but something you just can't do as a quarterback,

Starting point is 00:03:41 especially a guy like Jones who he's always been a cerebral guy, but even when he was in New York, he wasn't always the most careful with the ball. The reckless abandon at which he is turning the ball over, I'm shocked that they've been able to win these last couple games that way, because if you go look at last year, the season really flipped like that Pittsburgh game when he just started turning the ball over like crazy. And you can just see a direct correlation of where things really hit the fan. So Daniel Jones, you made this big bet. Expensive contract, obviously, he has regrets coming off to kill his injury.

Starting point is 00:04:19 Now, again, I don't really blame them much for that one. You kind of had to bring him back. Alec Pierce, the whole thing just in hindsight now seems a bit messy. You resign him, which you needed to do. But the ankle thing, you know, he has this ankle surgery shortly after you resign him did the big deal. He goes all offseason without really doing anything. A few weeks before the season, he finally practices again.

Starting point is 00:04:46 And then lo and behold, he reaggravates the ankle. And now you're sitting here, like personally, I'm not super optimistic that he's going to be back quickly. Like, it may not be this year. I know they're optimistic about it. But if you look at the timeline, how it already looked earlier in the offseason, I don't see how it makes a ton of sense. So your two big bets that you made, not bringing in really outside guys, this was kind of a run it back type of situation, resigning your own. Those two things have really fallen flat.

Starting point is 00:05:22 And this is kind of a soft launch into this episode because these are moves I generally agreed with, Zach. But at the same time, it's kind of a lack of being proactive, making other moves outside of these guys. Because you look at receiver outside of Pierce. One thing we did say is, okay, that's great. But like, what if something happens to Pierce? What if he takes too long getting back? What does the receiver room look like? It's Josh Downs and what?

Starting point is 00:05:51 And that's where we're at now. Like Pierce might miss. He could miss the rest of the season. We don't know. but he's at least out in the next several weeks. So I just think the approach at receiver is already hurting. Yeah, I think in general, like when it comes to the things we're going to talk about in this episode, I really don't think that they did anything wrong with these two moves.

Starting point is 00:06:13 At quarterback, it's the only move they had, right? The only option they had was to run it back with Daniel Jones. He played too well last season, and it deserved another shot. And that's just the nature of quarterback play, right? Like, look at the Buccaneers investing in Baker Mayfield the next four years. They probably don't feel great about that right now after just signing him, right? Just because everything changes in an instant when it comes to quarterback play. And you just have to take risk at that position.

Starting point is 00:06:38 And I think that was a fine bet to take. And it was only for two years on the contract, too. So I still agree with that move, even if it doesn't end up working out for him. And we still need to see how that plays out. The Pierce one is just unfortunate with the timing of the surgery. And then the reaggravation, injuries happen. I really don't disagree with these two moves too much. But I agree with you that they put a lot of their eggs in the basket of these two guys being what they were last year.

Starting point is 00:07:02 And they haven't had that result yet. So if anything, it's, I don't, again, I don't think the process was bad, but the results bad. And in a season where results matter more than anything else, that's not great for the front office or for the team in general. So I think I'll be as passionate as you are when we get to the second segment on this, when we talk about the defense. But yeah, I do think, you know, the offense is just the two big bets they made. Unfortunately, the injuries have hampered them. And look, they knew they were injured at the time. But I still don't think there was any other avenue.

Starting point is 00:07:37 I think outside of like maybe spending a top 100 pick or so on a wide receiver could have been helpful. And we mock that a lot in the draft process, you and I, like getting a receiver of one of those first three picks. So maybe they could have done that. Like I like Jalen Farmer's long-term potential. but could they have gotten a Skyler Bell in round four or someone like, you know, just another guy that is maybe more NFL ready there? Maybe that could have been better, but yeah, I mean, I still think they would be in kind of the situation regardless. I'm fine with the bets they took there. It's just unfortunately not working out so far.

Starting point is 00:08:11 So one thing that did bite them last year after everything kind of collapsed was it was very apparent that like there was a lot of injuries and there just wasn't anything to back. of the guys that they were losing. Like the depth was really questionable. And that was like a huge lesson to be learned going into this. And, you know, we saw them. They were sitting on like much of the offseason. They just had like $30 million in cap space showing out there in a very dire situation where you had to win, right?

Starting point is 00:08:42 Like this, if you were ever just going to be a little reckless with the cap space or do it needed to be this year. If you're loading up to win right now, they just didn't really do that. that quarterback, they hedged their bets on who they had. It turns out Riley Leonard, in the absence of Daniel Jones early, he didn't really take that step forward. They almost lost Anthony Richardson because he put himself on the trade block and ultimately they didn't have enough interest. The quarterback situation was messy at first. Jones did come back and everything and they couldn't have forecasted that his issue right now would be turnover related.

Starting point is 00:09:21 but then you look at Pierce. You know, we talked about that. Ashton Doolin still basically came into the regular season as the next guy up, if not for a very late move for Keenan Allen, which hasn't been much lately either. But then you even look at like Center. They were fine with letting Danny Penner walk, which of course, like go, you know,

Starting point is 00:09:43 go get a good deal and compete for the starting job in Baltimore. They're like, Dalton Tucker can do it. Well, Dalton Tucker couldn't even snap the ball. So they wind up after the entire summer having to trade a draft pick to go get a backup center because the guy they were relying on couldn't do it. So it's like they just make these assumptions. They don't work. And then the backup plan is just like, well, where was this?

Starting point is 00:10:09 Like what are you? It just seems like a whole lack of a plan throughout everything that we're going to talk about here today. Well, I think a big part of those things are just the misses at drafting the last few years. than anything else. You know, I don't even think, because, like, I don't think the answer is, like, okay, a free agent wide receiver or a free agent quarterback. Like, those are typically disasters, you know, free agent wide receivers are free. We said they needed to fortify with free agents because their draft picks have been so risky.

Starting point is 00:10:35 You need kind of more sure things. But it gets back to the main issue, which is the draft picks have been missing, you know, and that's the big part of it there. But that's probably a conversation for another day. Coming up, we're going to talk about the defense, though. And I'm very much in lockstep with Jake where, the approach, the plan, the communication between GM and coaching staff, on defense, everything just feels so messy.

Starting point is 00:10:58 And we're going to detail that in the next segment here. This message is a paid partnership with Applecard. One of my favorite parts of Game Day is everything leading up to it. Getting the house ready for a watch party, putting on my favorite team hoodie, and making one last run to the store before a kickoff. You know the routine. And with my Apple card, I can earn up the 3% unlimited daily cashback

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Starting point is 00:12:53 get 20% off your first six months when you go to Quo.com locked on NFL. That's Quo, QUO.com slash locked on NFL. All right, locked on Colts, Everdayers, we are back talking about just the weird acquisitions on defense this off season. Before we do that, don't forget to check out the Everdair Club for perks of being a loyal fan of this show. Get ad-free episodes in a group chat with me and Jake and many other fans of the show. All Access members also get a text line to Jake and I as well and receive bonus content to on weekends and during the week as well. So tap the link in the show notes or go to locked on colds.

Starting point is 00:13:31 Supercast.com. All right, Jake, so I'm going to tee off this segment before I let you get into your passion project on this one by just saying I do think the communication between front office and coaching staff has been a mess on defense ever since Luana Ruma was brought in here. And this was kind of part of my concern when they hired Luanarumo was just Chris Ballard and Ed Dodds view defensive football so differently than Anarumo. Like they've never been a part of a system that has been a multiple defense before. They've always been part of the Tampa 2 systems, the Seattle cover 3, something that just kind of sits in one of those base defense and plays like, you know, simple but fast, essentially, right? That's what they have known their entire careers.

Starting point is 00:14:15 So bring me on Lou Anurumo who changes the picture so much. multiple plays, you know, these three, four defenses that are a little bit different. I just thought it was a weird mix for those two. And we kind of saw it when Anuromo first came in here, like he cut the entire cornerback room that Chris Ballard had, right? Like the entire corner room got cut. But then we've seen like from all season acquisitions, a draft picks, just this discombobulation on like young guys even playing.

Starting point is 00:14:41 And I know part of that's just Aniromo's history with that. But like did Ballard draft a guy that he wanted him to draft or was Ballard drafting for a system of the Coltsdon? don't run. And I just think it's kind of been a mess. And, you know, that led us to this past off season where I know you're going to talk about some of this stuff, but like putting all your eggs in the Trey Hendrickson basket. And then when it didn't work out, no response to it whatsoever. Some of the bodies they brought in, like a Michael Clemens, like, he doesn't even fit this scheme remotely. I had no clue where that signing came from. Like, again, if he was like your,

Starting point is 00:15:12 your 50th player on the team, fine, but he was playing legit snaps or he was, you know, signed to play legit snaps on this team. Arden Key kind of fits stylistically, but still, like, it's as a starter, he doesn't. You know, so it's like a lot of these moves and signings and fits, like, feel like a GM thinking one thing and a defensive coach thinking another, and it's led to just, like, why are we starting, like, five players who are on vet minimum contracts on this defense this year? Like, how does that even happen in the modern NFL?

Starting point is 00:15:42 Those guys should be depth players at best. There's a reason why they're signing vet minimum contracts. So I do agree, like, when it comes to a lot of these concerns about, like, this past off season and even the past two off seasons, a lot of it comes down to, like, are the GM and the defensive coordinator, like, even remotely on the same page when it comes to what this defense needs? It really doesn't seem like it, man. So they entered the offseason saying we need to get younger and faster, more explosive in the front seven, which we all agreed with. They needed to do that. But then you look at edge, you look at the defensive tackle depth. And of course, linebacker, you look at all of it.

Starting point is 00:16:19 And you're like, okay, well, you've had to kind of shift to plan B on a lot of this stuff. Like you get Ardenki, you get Michael Clemens, and you're like, all right, well, they're going to play along with Latu, who's going to take a big jump. He hasn't. And, you know, we're going to hopefully add Trey Hendrickson to this mix. Well, you got the other two guys. You didn't wind up getting Trey Hendrickson. But, like, you also let a lot of other guys go, like Samson Ebicon, Tyquon, Louis,

Starting point is 00:16:46 putty pay which again great you're getting younger and faster but you have to replace them with people you know what i mean it's it's the whole argument and like younger and faster because like key and clemens are older players too and yeah and the young guys brought in were two day three picks one of them has been a healthy scratch for four games so yeah where did you get younger and faster hendrickson would have been a 30 plus year old edition as well so right you look at this and you're like okay Well, so none of this really went to plan. You have all this cap space. You missed out on this one guy, which that happens, whatever.

Starting point is 00:17:23 The whole Hendrickson, Ravens, Max Crosby thing, that was a weird mess that you had nothing to do with. Like I get that. But there was no follow up. So they're like, you know what? Back in 2023, we did edge rusher by committee and it worked then. It'll work now because Latu is going to lead the way. And we're going to rely on DeForest Buckner coming back from this neck injury. and everything's going to be great.

Starting point is 00:17:47 They've been blessed that DeForest Buckner looks awesome again, but that was a crazy bet in the first place. But now Michael Clemens is on IR for who knows how long with this toe injury. Arden Key is maybe not going to go on IR, but going to be out at least a few weeks or so with his hamstring injury likely. And then so again, what kind of bet did you make here? These two guys who weren't even really good enough to be propped up as you prop them up, you don't even have them now.

Starting point is 00:18:19 And Latu's not playing like a star. So now you're going to have to just hope and pray that these two day three rookie edge rushers who historically provide nothing as rookies can do something. Now, Caden Curry looks like he might be all right. But again, what was that, six round? George Gumbs has been a healthy scratch all year. So you have to pray that that works out. Colby Wooden, who you traded a long time starting Mike linebacker for in Zaire Franklin,

Starting point is 00:18:47 you traded, you swapped got Colby Wooden. He didn't even make the team. Yeah, and he wasn't even getting much run with guys higher up after that trade. So it's like, did the defensive staff even, like, was this a guy? Because Colby Wooden very much similar body type to like a DeNico Autry, right? Which fit what Ballard likes to do with the Iber Fluse and the Gus Bradley system, zero role with this Luana Rumo system, though he had no fit. So he ended up just being a camp cut.

Starting point is 00:19:16 And it's like, did you guys talk before the trade was made there? Right. You know? So I think ultimately a lot of this comes down to like just the communication between the two parties. Like the CJ Allen pick, what's going on with that, right? Like I think part of that is because of their disastrous plan with Cameron Biden as the green dot. And then it led to having Akeem Davis Gather needs to be the bike now because he's the only guy who can call the defense. committed strong to him, yeah.

Starting point is 00:19:41 Right, and there's no place for Allen right now, so I don't think it's as crazy as, like, some of the conspiracy theories. But another part of it is just like, that's another second round pick who's not playing after Jayland Tombola didn't play last year. So it's like we're spending prime capital on a lot of these guys that aren't playing or aren't playing like super well or being maximalized. Layatu-Latu, Chris Ballard thinks can be a superstar pass rusher. Lou Aniruma has him as a strong side defensive end contain rushing.

Starting point is 00:20:08 And I think, look, I'm on Aniromo. with this. I do think that's better for a lot too. But again, it shows that disconnect on where these two people are with how they view the team. And again, that's how we kind of get where we are with the defense. So I think the defense can be fine. I think they can still be salvageable this season, but just two clashing mentalities that lead to whatever the heck they're putting out there on defense this season. Yeah, without question. And we said going into this, like, sometimes it does not work with draft picks. Like you're going to miss on some of them, but this needed to be a year where you nailed the draft, especially early. And C.J. Allen, he's had two games where he's active,

Starting point is 00:20:48 but has played zero snaps. He doesn't play special teams either. Jalen Farmer, this is essentially a redshirt year because he's like only on the field goal block team, which we get that there, but that's your third pick, your fourth round pick. Seth McGowan is one of your best rookies, and he's like a seventh rounder, you know what I mean? Like, This continues to be a Chris Ballard draft where the only guys of value quickly you found were the ones who you almost couldn't even get because it was at the end of the draft. And they're depth players. Like they're their depth players, not star players, not they're not playing star roles for you. They're your kickoff return or your RB2, you know.

Starting point is 00:21:26 Yeah. Yeah. So we have to move this along. But yeah, I mean, obviously there's a lot that we can continue saying on this. And I'm sure you guys will in the comment section as well. But coming up, we're going to reconcile all this. Like what does it mean going forward? like what, basically what going forward with this Colts team

Starting point is 00:21:41 and can it still result in the playoff appearance? We'll talk about that to close out this episode. NFL is full of games that you plan for all year, but sometimes the best memories come from the games that you almost missed. Game time makes it easy to find tickets to NFL matchups that you want to see with prices that include fees so that you're not just totally caught off guard at the end when you go to pay for it. You can browse games, see a panorament view from your seat before you buy,

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Starting point is 00:22:27 Just think about a game on the schedule that you absolutely don't want to miss. So the Colts went to Pittsburgh last year. They're going there this Sunday as well. I have found just in day-to-day conversations with random people. Like a lot of people went to that game last year from Indy. A lot of them are going this year. Like it's a pretty drivable distance. It's a nice AFC matchup.

Starting point is 00:22:49 And I think everyone wants to see the Colts win in Pittsburgh for the first time in like 15 or 20 years, whatever it is. So get your friends together, get your tickets, and tell them it's game time. Download the GameTime at, create an account and use code locked on for 20 bucks off of your first purchase, terms apply. Again, create an account and use code locked on for $20 off. In a new football season brings some big questions. Who makes the playoffs? Who wins their division and who takes home the title? Kalshi, America's number one prediction market platform, lets you trade those predictions in a live market. Will the Colts actually beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh this week? Well, right now, as Indy is currently trading at 46%, meaning a $100 trade would pay out $218 if they are victorious.

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Starting point is 00:24:11 All righty, locked on Colts every days. Welcome back to the doom and gloom episode of Locked on Colts. I do kind of want to bring it all back in here because, look, I let Jake go to town in this episode. I let him go, you know. Sometimes you got to just let him go, right? And he can really bring it there. But the Colts are coming off a three-score victory out in London, right? Two games they've won, including getting a.

Starting point is 00:24:33 the monkey off their back against the Houston Texans. I know the Texans were banged up, but the Colts were banged up in that game too. Like, come on. It's the NFL. Everyone's banged up. So, you know, it's not all doom and gloom. They're sitting at two and two. They're in clear second place of the division. They're going to be in the playoff like they've been the last decade under Chris Ballard, right? I think a lot of our frustration and where this episode comes from is just, again, the frustration of the 10 years, right? Of what it's been with Chris Ballard and just foreseeable problems being problems with this team each and every year. It feels like every year you can pick out which position group is going to be the problem child going into the year.

Starting point is 00:25:09 A lot of you guys picked wide receiver this year, which ended up being true. Jake and I picked edge rusher, which has also been true this year. You can always kind of pick it out with the team. So I think that's where the frustration comes. But, you know, this Colts team is going to compete for the playoffs this season. They have a fairly manageable schedule the rest of the way, especially when you look at, you know, two and four teams. They still play three games against two oh and four teams with the Texans and the Titans.

Starting point is 00:25:32 Now the Texans might be a tougher game the next time, but the Titans look like they're competing for the number one spot in the draft. Dolphins as well. Yeah, dolphins as well. Like they have very winnable games coming up. So yeah, the Colts can certainly make a push for the playoffs despite all these issues we talked about. I just think at the end of the day though, Jake, and I think I speak for a lot of Colts fans

Starting point is 00:25:51 here, it's just, it's been tiring that it's been the same old story every year. because right now, like you and I both predicted around eight to ten wins before the season. I was a little more pessimistic. I think you got to like 10 with your prediction before the year. My hot take was 11 and 6 actually. Yeah. Yeah. And I had, I had eight and nine, like they've always been.

Starting point is 00:26:10 And I just think like after four games, I'm probably like eight and nine, nine and eight still for this team. I think we like, it's kind of what it is. So it's like it's almost just like reading a book that you've already read before over and over again. It's like, okay, I know this plot to us is coming. I know this is coming. Like, you kind of can just guess all the, all the things happening. And that's probably where the frustration really lies. Yeah, I just think we all saw, we called out a lack of urgency when this whole

Starting point is 00:26:40 offseason was about urgency. And we just said, that's not what it looks like. You know, it does. Like you said, it all felt very much the same. And, you know, you traded two first round picks for sauce gardener. So you didn't have that first rounder. So you needed to nail it with the second one. that didn't happen and sauce doesn't look I mean I know it's just not a lot of people are going to push back because any low moments makes you look terrible he's been fine he just I mean you need him to be kind of transcendent for what you gave up for two first round picks right yeah which he hasn't been so this was just all it was also predictable it's like it feels like same old Colts you know so we're going to try and ride some optimism on this two game win streak and like you said these stuff

Starting point is 00:27:24 They'll have two games against the Titans, another against Houston. They got Miami coming up. They've got some games where they should be in the mix here. So what are some reasonable things to expect to either change or turn around, whatever, to give you some optimism moving forward? I think first and foremost for me is Daniel Jones is capable of taking care of the ball. Like you looked through the first several games last year. He barely turned it over at all until the Pittsburgh game.

Starting point is 00:27:52 So, I mean, if Jones just takes care of. the ball a little bit better while not completely going into a shell because you do still need them to take some chances. Then I think that's going to be helpful. But the offense hasn't really been the issue already, you know, but still, you know, that's not going to cut drives off right where they're at because you're not immediately giving it to the other team. You can score some more points. You can kill some more clock. Like, just taking care of the ball better, especially via Jones, I think will help. Yeah, for sure. One thing I want to end this. episode on, though, is, you know, I've been a big defender of Carla Ersay Gordon on this show

Starting point is 00:28:29 for a while, right? I think that she's a process-oriented person, and even though I disagree with bringing back both Stuyken and Baller going into this year, I understood the process point of view with it. And I like that about her, and I like that that's how she views things. And I will say running it back this year to see if the process still looked good and in hope that the results changed around, I would actually say so far this season, the process has been much worse, but even if the results have not been that bad, right? Because they're two and two right now, right? I would say the process looks awful right now. I mean, if you look at average net yards per attempt, right, they're like in the bottom three of the NFL. If you look at

Starting point is 00:29:03 turnover differential, one of the worst teams in football, if you look at just yards gain and success rate, they're towards the bottom of the league right now. So they're winning games, but not like the way they were early last season where it was like, you know, the process was great. So I would say if they, let's say this trend continues and they win 10 games doing what they're doing right now, looking like the Steelers of the Mike Tomlin era the last couple years there, right, where it's like limping into the playoffs to lose by 20 in the first round. I would say that process has not earned an extension for Chris Ballard and probably not another Shane Steichen year either. Maybe you can make the argument there, but definitely not an

Starting point is 00:29:41 extension for Chris Ballard. So I do think if the season continues on this trajectory, it will be a huge test for the process of Carly Ursaig Gordon because even if they make the playoffs with the current process, I don't think that's good enough to keep the GM in my opinion. It's just not a good enough process at that point. So this off season will be a big test for Ursa, Gordon, if they do end up making the playoffs doing what they're currently doing. But again, I'm not closing the door on them turning it around. I do think they still have a lot of good ingredients in place, and I think they can go on a bit of a run. But they do need to start finding some answers because I would say so far that like a quarter season review of this team is, you know, seven to eight win team.

Starting point is 00:30:20 Maybe they can turn that around going forward. but you guys let us know in the comment section what you think. Again, I know it's a bit doom and gloom. We're not out on this Colts team. We're just a little frustrated, is all. Like, that's all. This is just some frustration. We have 30 minutes to vent to you guys.

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Starting point is 00:31:01 We'll catch you guys back here tomorrow afternoon.

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