Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Could Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones Be Fantasy STUD? (w/ Michael Fabiano)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello, fantasy nerds. We've got royalty here today as Michael Fabiano drops in to tell us how things might shake out for Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and the Colts from a fantasy perspective. So let's get to it. You are locked on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast, part of the locked on podcast network, your team every day. All right. Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day.

Starting point is 00:00:36 This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the locked on podcast network, your team every day. And today's episode is brought to you by Fandool. Right now, new customers, you guys can go and get $150 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. What is up, everybody? This is Jake Arthur of HorseshoeHuddle.com, your resident credentialed media member for the site. And we've got a very special episode planned for you today.

Starting point is 00:01:05 We've got Michael Fabiano joining the show. He is the senior fantasy analyst for Sports Illustrated, and he's the host of Locked on Dynasty football here at the network, as well as the fantasy football forecast. Following his content back when he was with nfl.com is kind of what got me into producing fantasy football content years ago.

Starting point is 00:01:27 So he's definitely someone whose opinions I trust. Fab's is the best. But before we get into it, let me go ahead and lay some groundwork here. So I think, you know, Fab's kind of overall echoes a lot of what the fantasy community is feeling right now about the Colts. And as always, everything circles back to the quarterback position. So obviously, pass catchers and receivers specifically have been going earlier and earlier, especially the really good,

Starting point is 00:01:57 gaudy, reliable ones. You know, your Jamar chases and Justin Jeffersons of the world. Those guys have been getting there. I feel like they've been kind of causing receivers in general to get boosted upwards a little bit. And as always, as far as position players go, as tight ends are always gonna be such a shallow position. But Tyler Warren joining the Colts certainly helps things a little bit.

Starting point is 00:02:21 Getting guys like him and Colston Loveland into the league, I think will help make the position a little bit getting guys like him and Colston Loveland into the league. I think we'll help make the position a little deeper. But when you look at it, Jonathan Taylor is really the only guy who is unaffected by who the quarterback is gonna be. Now we've seen in the past, he is a little more effective with Anthony Richardson in the backfield with him. But as far as volume goes and everything, I think regardless of whether it's Jones or Richardson, the offense is going to have to run through Jonathan Taylor and the running game. It's just going to have to be the main thing that

Starting point is 00:02:54 supports the entire offense. And you know, if this new look offensive line can help support a strong run game, then you know, they can get some supplemental action to pass game off that. I think the Colts would probably really like to have a strong run game which produces big plays off of play action in the passing game this year. But we'll obviously see how that goes that can be the plan up until something doesn't work. Or maybe you know the quarterbacks really surprise people and they play really effectively and you know, either one of these guys is kind of turned over a new leaf so to speak. We'll just have to see how it goes. But if it's Jones, let's say I think the shorter passing game is going to be more

Starting point is 00:03:35 key. I think you'll see from a PPR perspective guys like Michael Pittman, Jr. Josh Downs Tyler Warren those guys. I think their value will increase. I think their weekly floors will be a little bit better because you're going to be able to hang your hat on them getting four or five, six catches a game probably.

Starting point is 00:03:54 But a guy like Alec Pierce may not have as much success, definitely not as much as last year, leading the the the Colts in receiving yards. I think Jones would still target him for big plays, at least if the spring is any indicator. I think that's perhaps going to be his main guy that he goes to downfield. But expecting Pierce two years in a row to have like a big blow up season where even last year, the Colts didn't. He wasn't like a big part of the passing game throughout entire games.

Starting point is 00:04:27 It was really like late in games when they were behind where they really went to him it felt like so pierces up with a guy I would feel most iffy about especially if 80 Mitchell starts to come on a little better than he did last year. But you know if you have Anthony Richardson out there, that's a guy who's average depth of target is going to, you know, probably still be, even if it's not as high as it was last year, still perhaps the highest in the league. It was nearly three yards higher than the next closest quarterback last year.

Starting point is 00:04:58 So Anthony's going to be whipping the ball downfield. I do still think like Tyler Warren will be fine with that. He's a guy over the middle of the field. Anthony could really target the Alec Pierce's value for the most part, I think is tied to Richardson, but still it was it was very hit or miss. Like he's the kind of guy that can go two games with four combined catches for 50, 60 yards and then one game four catches 125 yards to touchdown. So I think he's good to have rostered in fantasy. Uh, if you could find some consistency, but he is hard to have listed as a regular starter,

Starting point is 00:05:36 which his final numbers last year kind of made him a little bit of like a flex play most weeks. But he's just so hard to predict. I do think both quarterbacks have some running value. If I'm the Colts and Daniel Jones wins the job, I definitely want to feature him on the ground a little bit more like the Giants did back in 2022. Ran for over 700 yards, which was a career high. Now injuries over the last couple years with the Giants kind of affected that. I think he had a neck thing. He had the ACL. So obviously you're not going to be very effective runner in that respect, but

Starting point is 00:06:10 it's something that we know he can do. We obviously know Anthony can do that as well. I would totally have the bubble wrap taken off. If I'm the Colts and it's Anthony Richardson kind of like they did after they brought him back from the bench last year. You saw him running more often without just being in a bubble. It felt like early last year they tried to force him into being a pocket passer who didn't run very much unless he had to and it just didn't work.

Starting point is 00:06:37 It felt very out of character. But we saw him be more effective when he returned to the lineup and just was running a little bit more often last year. Again, either quarterback for me, that's what I would do. I think some guys who were pretty safe, regardless out there, and these are ones I'd be comfortable drafting. Obviously, Jonathan Taylor, if you're like at the end of the first round, it's a snake draft.

Starting point is 00:07:00 You're drafting at the beginning of the second round. Taylor is like the perfect running back to get there at the swing. You get Taylor, you get yourself a nice wide receiver and suddenly you're starting to fill out your roster a little bit and you're not missing anything when it comes back around and it's forever until you draft again. So Jonathan Taylor I think is perfect. It's going to be a high volume player even though they have Kala Herbert and DJ Giddens. Josh Downs, I'd be very comfortable with.

Starting point is 00:07:26 I'd be a lot more comfortable with Michael Pittman Jr. This year, as long as he is proven to be healthy. I think that back injury last year really caused some issues, but if he's healthy, then he's going to be targeted just as much as Josh Downs will be. So those guys in particular, I'd be very comfortable in having. I think there's room to have Tyler Warren, I think, is probably the guy next on my list. I would be comfortable taking a late round flyer on.

Starting point is 00:07:54 There's just a lot of mouths to feed, but I think he is probably going to finish around being the third most targeted player on the Colts in the passing game. So he'll have some value there, but he's going off the board after about tight end 10 or so so you could probably get him in the later rounds. But I will quit yapping here in a moment and get you to my conversation with fabs. But first, let's hear from our sponsors. Summer sports are in full swing and whether you're all about baseball under the lights, golf on the green, or high-stakes soccer action, Fandle is the best way to make

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Starting point is 00:09:11 All right, everybody, he is back. It's the senior fantasy analyst for Sports Illustrated. He's also the host of Locked on Dynasty here on the network and the fantasy football forecast. You can find him on Twitter at Michael underscore Fabiano. It is our guy, Michael Fabiano. Welcome back to the show for your annual dive into the Colts fantasy prospects,

Starting point is 00:09:32 which never really seems to get clear. It's always muddy this time of year, isn't it? It's good to be back. I even broke off the two Colts helmets behind me there for you. Love it. We got Indiana Knights ones there. That is absolutely perfect.

Starting point is 00:09:43 I love those helmets, yeah. Those are good, yeah. And I actually get to wear them at night this year, which is big. Which is big. So this year when you're looking at Colts in fantasy, pretty much everything with the Colts ties back around to, well, let's see what's going to go on with the quarterback situation. So obviously the Colts have a decent gr know, you look at jonathan the ground, you got some we all really want to be

Starting point is 00:10:12 how much kind of trepidat situation cause you when to file away where to put It's crazy, right? Because talking about Anthony Rig a breakout. Yeah, it, but he showed some potential. And because he can run with the ball, especially a dude like me who loves guys who can run with the ball in the quarterback position, you get excited about it, right? And the problem is

Starting point is 00:10:36 that you've got a scenario now where, I mean, Richardson may not even be the favorite to start. And he probably has the fire, the, the, the higher fantasy upside. But if Daniel Jones is the starter, is that actually better for Michael Pittman jr and Josh Downs and, you know, Tyler Warren, I think it probably is. So while you lose Richardson's ceiling, because he can run with the ball, you maybe gain some value with the pass catchers. Now, John, the theory is not going to change. I mean, that's, that's, that's just not going to happen. He's going to be in RB one in fantasy.

Starting point is 00:11:17 He's going to be drafted, you know, among the first, you know, 12 to 15 picks. Like we all know what John and Taylor is. Uh, as long as he can stay healthy, he's always very productive. But it's the rest of the team where the question marks are. And the question marks will come because of that quarterback situation. So that's going to be a competition in camp that we really need to keep tabs on. Is it going to be Daniel Jones? Is Anthony Richardson going to be healthy enough to compete in training camp? It seems like that's the direction that it's going in, but that's a big battle that fantasy managers need to keep tabs on during training camp and into the preseason because it'll really have an effect on where you draft some of these wide receivers.

Starting point is 00:12:00 I mean, I like Tyler Warren a lot. I don't think he's going to be Brock Bowers or Sam Laporta, but you know, I see Dallas Clark in him, right? I kind of see that type of player in him. And so I love his upside too, but in this scenario, I mean, it really depends on the quarterback. And it's crazy to think that Daniel Jones, who the giants got rid of, not like they had a hell of a lot of great

Starting point is 00:12:26 quarterbacks over there. Tommy DeVito, you know, one of these, uh, now he may be the better fantasy fit than Anthony Richardson, who we all kind of loved as a rookie. Yeah. So when you look at Daniel Jones, if you're looking at the optimistic side of things, you do see this pairing with Shane Stike and as its head coach and the best the Giants ever got out of Jones was there in twenty twenty two. He had career highs and rushing and everything. He was a fantasy quarterback. Yeah. Yeah. Does that adjust the meter for you? Like if Jones is the starter, let's say he beats Anthony and they're just like, you know, we're going for a guy who may be more boring, but we know what we're going to get, uh, for the most part. Do you think like they,

Starting point is 00:13:11 they might lean into the rushing a little bit more and you, you think that might make you feel a little more optimistic about his fantasy prowess. You know, we talked about Richardson being a good running quarterback, but so was the end of Jones that year with the giants that you mentioned, I think he rushed for over 700 yards. So he can run with the ball. You know, he's not, you know, he's not Dan Marino or Peyton Manning back there. He can actually run with the ball that you can run RPOs with him.

Starting point is 00:13:37 When the play breaks down, you know, he's, he's not an immobile quarterback. He can, he can make plays. So if you're looking at the entire landscape of fantasy as it pertains to the Colts, Daniel Jones being the quarterback is probably better because you have a little bit more faith in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs and Tyler Warren. Again, Taylor's value is not going to matter. And again, it's so crazy how AR's value has fallen so much, but can Daniel Jones be a fantasy asset as a potential QB2, QB3, a guy you're using maybe in super flex and certainly drafting in super flex or someone

Starting point is 00:14:13 that you can use during the bi-weeks or maybe even a player who kind of exceeds expectations and suddenly becomes a, I don't know if I want to call them a sleeper type, but someone who may have a little bit more value than we are anticipating. And the reason why you can't anticipate that value right now is because Anthony Richardson, who cost the Colts would kind of prefer that he ends up sort of improving and developing and becoming the guy they thought that they were getting out of Florida rather than have Daniel Jones usurp him on a one-year deal and suddenly what's your future look like? Yeah, I think since it feels like there's a lot of jobs on the line, so I've got to imagine they want whoever is going to help them win.

Starting point is 00:15:05 But it certainly behooves everybody for Anthony to kind of become a success story and level this thing out and just kind of. I mean, the long term thing was you have a guy that can compete with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, that's what they wanted. But just a guy who can give you like baseline solid quarterback play, I think they would kind of take it at this point. But I think one of the more sobering things of this and how the quarterback affects things is Alec Pierce.

Starting point is 00:15:32 I mean, he just led the NFL in yards for catch last year and led the Colts in receiving yardage. It's kind of like you don't really know what to do with him. So I think you got him at wide receiver 77 here currently. And he seems like the biggest mystery of all of them because he is so dependent on the quarterback looking for him downfield. Whereas Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Michael Pittman Jr.

Starting point is 00:15:58 They're always going to kind of fall into a handful of catches because they're a little closer to the line of scrimmage. But is there an avenue where you see yourself being high on him or is he just too much of a kind of a mystery for you to want any part of him? Yeah. He's a flyer. Uh, you know, that's really what he is is a flyer.

Starting point is 00:16:16 I mean, let's not, AD Mitchell still there. Yeah. You know, they brought in Tyler Warren. So while they don't have, you know, like an alpha stud type of guy who's going to warrant a lot of targets, I mean, Pittman's probably the closest that they have to that. They have a bunch of guys who could potentially split that target pie up to the point where it's hard to find anybody who's consistent. And, you know,

Starting point is 00:16:39 unless Pierce hits on a, you know, 50 yard touchdown catch, are you going to get consistent value for him and consistent production? I just don't see it. And no one's talking about A.D. Mitchell either. The Colts drafted him pretty highly last year and nobody's talking about him at all. In fact, he's not getting picked in a lot of drafts. It's more, it's pittman and downs.

Starting point is 00:16:59 Honestly, Pierce isn't really getting picked either. And then you bring in Tyler Warren into the mix and something you got a lot of players who are going to be vying and competing for targets. So, you know, Pierce might be a guy that you pick up off the waiver wire because he has a four catch for 125 yards in a touchdown game. And you're like, Oh, but then at that point, you're just chasing the points because it's really going to be hard for him to be a consistent point producer from a fantasy perspective, unless there's injuries and then you factor in the quarterback conundrum right now too.

Starting point is 00:17:27 So, uh, really hard to put it a value on Alec Pierce other than just saying he's a late flyer type. Yeah, honestly, even last year, you know, his final production looked great, but week to week, you still never knew it was those, you know, kind of gaudy stat lines. He mentioned a lot of time, they weren't really going to much until the fourth quarter. So for fantasy purposes, I think that is really, really kind of iffy to try and rely on. And like you said, with AD Mitchell as well, to a lesser degree, they like the Anthony

Starting point is 00:17:57 Richardson thing, they really want him to work out as well. Yeah. Yeah. Talent wise, they think he could be their best receiver. And Reggie Wayne talks about him having like so much really untapped potential. They just kind of got to get him to get it, so to speak, and kind of turn that corner a little bit. Uh, but guys, uh, here coming up in a moment, we're going to talk about a couple of guys on the ground who could turn some heads. One of them you already know, but DJ Giddens, how much of a sleeper could he be?

Starting point is 00:18:27 All right, fab. So let's look at this thing here. So Jonathan Taylor, you mentioned he's, you know, kind of an easy, you know, top 12 or so good option there in the swing from the first to second round. He is RB eight for you right now. I think that's pretty respectable given that he doesn't like contribute a whole bunch in the passing game. And you know, he's there's going to be more mouths you right now. I think that's pretty respectable given he doesn't like contribute a whole bunch in the passing game and you know, he's there's gonna be more mountains to feed there obviously in the passing game as well.

Starting point is 00:18:51 But the Colts have upgraded the backfield with Khalil Herbert and DJ Giddens. So the good news for Taylor is he's dealt with some injuries over the last few years with the last we saw him. He had like 180 yards from scrimmage in week 18. So our lasting memory of him so far is really good Jonathan Taylor performance. So, um, he's obviously got, you know, a lot of wear and tear. He's I think 26 now. So what's your overall vibe with him? Like what's your outlook for Taylor on the season?

Starting point is 00:19:20 Yeah. I mean, I'm expecting top 10 numbers. Uh, is there risk there in terms of the durability? I mean, certainly. But I still think he's the centerpiece of the offense. Now, in fantasy, in a situation where, you know, it's like a Jonathan Taylor, you know, tends to get dinged up, you know, Christian McCaffrey type, although Taylor's more durable than McCaffrey over the last, you know, five years, you want to know who the backup is going to be. And you're right. You brought in Khalil Herbert and Gideon's is in there as well. And I think they kind of want.

Starting point is 00:19:50 Remember like when they had Marlon Mack and they tried to put Mack and Taylor together and, and then, you know, kind of Mack got banged up and Marlon Mack, I mean, had, had a season where he was pretty, you know, fantasy relevant. Maybe he's a comparison to DJ. Uh, but I don't think there's going to be like this committee. I think John Taylor is still going to get, you know, North of 18 to 20 touches per game, that's going to be the game plan for them. They paid them a lot of money.

Starting point is 00:20:15 They're going to use him. But in this scenario where, you know, he goes down, which would be unfortunate, but we've seen it in the past. That's another battle in Indianapolis. This is training can that we really need to keep tabs on. Like who's going to end up being the two is going to be DJ or is it going to be Herbert? I mean, right now, I mean, I have Herbert ranked higher than DJ. I got to see. I got to see what transpires in camp in preseason, you know, and, you know,

Starting point is 00:20:42 if Giddens has a tremendous camp and suddenly he usurps Herbert and becomes the number two, then yeah, that's going to be a situation where if you have Jonathan Taylor or, you know, you go into like a zero RB scenario from a drafting perspective, then maybe, you know, the rookie is somebody that you're throwing a dart at a little bit later on in drafts. So yeah, the Colts, the Colts go into training camp with, you know, two pretty big question marks, you know know in terms of real football and fantasy Yeah, it would be hard for me to think that they would have some sort of committee because they've just really never done that when Jonathan Yeah, exactly. I don't see it either

Starting point is 00:21:14 It's more of like who do I go to if Taylor gets hurt or maybe it just is a committee way if he goes down And you know Herbert's the starter and they're using DJ as well I mean that that's also certainly within the realm of possibility, but you do want to know who that potential handcuff is for JT and Casey goes down. Yeah, for sure. I think it's like three and a half games per year in his career. He's missed. So it's smart to get one of those guys there in the later rounds, I would think, but overall, I mean, if John the tailor is healthy, he's a 1400 yard, 10 touchdown per year guy. So, um, obviously a smart pickup there. Um, and then, you know, not, not much to write about what the, the defense and the kickers kind of looks,

Starting point is 00:21:53 the, the kicker is what it is. You know, they, they made the kind of the bold choice to, to move on from Matt Gay cause they liked Spencer Schrader who I think for three different teams was perfect on all, all kick attempts last year. So that one's interesting to see and then the cold Stevens kind of right there in the middle with with 18. Is there anything that they have done or lost this this offseason? I guess defensively that as you leaning one way or another now, I guess from a fantasy perspective, I mean, they're not going to be drafted, but you know, they're going to end up being a unit that will be, uh, we'll certainly be in the mix for matchup based starting.

Starting point is 00:22:29 Like when I, when I look at defenses, um, you know, I'm looking at the unit as a whole, you're not looking into individual things. That's, that's fantasy, right? Unless you're playing in an IDP league. I mean, that's a, that's a completely different thing. So you're looking at units. So there's defenses out there have really talented players. They just don't translate from a fantasy standpoint a lot of it is matchups

Starting point is 00:22:47 And there's a lot of people out there like me who didn't necessarily want to draft like a high-end defense because I mean sometimes Look what happened with the Cowboys, you know, the Cowboys are like this great defense all of a sudden last year a terrible You know, and then the Broncos like the Broncos were you know, you know ranked okay, man Boom, they just exploded and they were great last year. So the Colts are going to end up being like middle to the end in terms of the rankings from a defensive perspective. But I like to play the matchup. So they're going to be a defense where if they've got a bad opponent coming into town,

Starting point is 00:23:20 whatever the case may be, maybe there's a backup quarterback that's got to start for an opponent. I'm going to be certainly looking to pick up the Colts off the waiver wire and utilize them. Uh, but overall, you know, not, not a unit that a lot of people are going to get excited about, but listen, weird stuff happens in the NFL. So I always say what's predictable at the NFL is that it's unpredictable every single year, so not a lot of excitement around that Colts defense

Starting point is 00:23:42 and fantasy. Yeah. It's, it's just such a mystery because defenses are, unless they're totally stifling, it's like they're so reliant on the big plays, the turnovers, the sacks. Some defenses catch fire and get like four or five defensive touchdowns in here. So you really never know, obviously with Louie and Arumo as well. So that was really good, Fabzawa. I appreciate you coming on here. Again, the Colts are a mystery, so we'll see how it all transpires.

Starting point is 00:24:08 Training camp certainly will be interesting. They report on July 22nd. Anything you want to plug before we get out of here? Yeah, got a lot going on over at Sports Illustrated. So make sure you check that out. S.I. dot com slash fantasy. You mentioned the Lockdown Dynasty football podcast with my myself and Marcus Mosher. The Fantasy Football Forecast on Westwood 1 is going to be coming up here at the beginning of September, beginning of football season.

Starting point is 00:24:35 So hopefully you will check that out. And I'll be at the Fantasy Football Expo in Canton next month. So if you're in that area and you want to go check that out, that's going to be a lot of fun. Probably be doing some stuff in Vegas in August and then the grind comes my man and you know it's coming. Absolutely. I'm about to have zero free time. It sounds like you were in the same boat there. So thanks again for joining me and this was awesome. You got it.

Starting point is 00:25:11 All right. Thanks again to Fab's for joining us. He was great as always. Thank you guys for making Locked on Colts your first listen today. Now for your next listen, go check out the Locked on NFL Scouting podcast. As training camps get closer and moves are being made, hosts Kyle Krabs and Joe Marino will make you the most informed NFL fan this off season. Find Lockdown NFL scouting on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. And don't forget if you want to become a Lockdown Colts insider and chat with us directly, get the inside scoop, please follow the link in our show notes. Again, that's huge cause I'll be there, you know,

Starting point is 00:25:41 throughout training camp at the practices, I'll be traveling as well. I think Zach's going to join me in Maryland when the Colts go and visit the Ravens. So if you guys have any questions about this team, again, want to know the inside scoop, what's being said by players, coaches, what have you, hit us up, join the insider program, and we would love to chat for it with you. If you don't already follow at locked on Colts at Jake Arthur NFL and at Zach Hicks too, on Twitter. We're also on Tik TOK and Instagram. Also, please be sure to subscribe on YouTube and wherever you listen to podcasts, we love those ratings and reviews as well.

Starting point is 00:26:16 Definitely helps out the show, especially ramping up, getting closer to training camp. And with that, thank you guys again, and we will see you tomorrow.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Could Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones Be Fantasy STUD? (w/ Michael Fabiano)

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