Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: DVOA-Determined Needs and the Value of Trading Back, with Aaron Schatz

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everybody? This is Jake Arthur from Locked on Colts here and wanted to bring you a little mini-sode action here on Draft Week. I just conducted an interview a little bit ago with Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy, the Chief Analytics Officer over there. Truly one of the pioneers in modern NFL analytics, so this was a great interview for us to get. Talked to Aaron a bit about DVOA, which is a metric he's been working on for 20 years. It's one that I have found in discussions about football stats and things like that. People really like to rely on that number. I have found it to be a pretty accurate assessment of how units are performing, how players are performing, how replaceable guys are in the grand scheme of things, really.

Starting point is 00:00:45 But that was really good to see. Aaron kind of told us what he thinks the Colts needs are based on that numbers, which a lot of us, you know, we see the eye test from watching the Colts all the time. You know, what's the free agency situation? But for Aaron, what do the numbers say the Colts needs are? So that was good to hear. He gave us some players that really fit as well. Had a nice little nerd out session about some things that we could see the Colts do. The value of trading up versus trading back. Aaron had some interesting things to say about that as well. But first, I want to let you guys know that today's show is brought to you by GameTime. GameTime is now an authorized ticket marketplace of Major League Baseball, which makes getting tickets even faster and easier. Prices on the GameTime app actually go down the closer it gets to the first pitch. With killer last-minute deals, all-in prices, use for your seat, and the

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Starting point is 00:02:38 We have got the legendary Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, of course, a very famous metric that honestly, I've come to find that most people I talk to lean on that quite heavily. He is the Chiefs Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy. Welcome to the show, Aaron, and thank you for your time. Hey, good to be on. Thanks for having me on, man. Of course, right here, Draft Week, no better time than now. So DVOA, of course, has been around for quite some time. Most people in the football community know much about it, but for those of us, for those of our viewers here who aren't familiar,

Starting point is 00:03:19 would you mind just giving us a quick rundown of DVOA and how it translates to the NFL? Sure. What I do is I assign success to every play based on the down and distance. And then that gets compared to a league average baseline, which is adjusted for situation and opponent. So over zero means good offense and under zero means good defense. And it's just a really good way to measure team efficiency. I've been doing it for 20 years. We have the stat now going back to 1979. You can do, you can analyze by downs and by red zone and by different players, but also, you know, do historical analysis. It's lots of really good stuff. Yeah. And of course, honestly, one of the things I've used it for before is the Colts special teams. That was always a good way for me, I think, to see,

Starting point is 00:04:10 you know, punting and kicking. I was like, are they, are they doing their thing? But, you know, when you stack up DVOA and you look at the Colts, you know, picking right in the middle, their arrow should be pointing up if they get this Anthony Richardson thing, if they have gotten that right. But otherwise, what do you see based on DVOA that the Colts really ought to come out of this draft with? Well, I will say, I mean, okay, so first of all, let's be really honest. Yes, Anthony Richardson is the biggest issue with the Colts. We have no idea what he's going to be.

Starting point is 00:04:44 Like my projection for the Colts. We have no idea what he's going to be. Like my projection for the Colts right now for next year is down because you have to consider Richardson as basically a rookie and most rookie quarterbacks are bad, but we don't know. He could be CJ Stroud or he could be Zach Wilson. We really don't know from the whatever three games that he played last year. We don't really have any idea of how good he is. What we do know is that Gardner Minshew was probably better than people give him credit for. So they're starting from average. They're not starting from bad and trying to get better.

Starting point is 00:05:18 They're starting from average and trying to get better. If you look at their ratings last year, I mean, they were a very meh team. They were 13th on offense, better running than passing, but pretty average in both. They were 20th on defense and run and pass, neither one really stood out. They were 30th on special teams, but of course you don't use your top draft picks to improve special teams. Combined with the fact that one of the things they were particularly bad off on was kickoff coverage, which is completely different this year. So we have no idea what to expect. but I think you learn more from looking at the roster than you necessarily do from the overall DVOA numbers.

Starting point is 00:06:08 When you look at what the Colts need needs are. I think that the clearest need for them is a cornerback. Okay. I do have a new DVOA that I created last year using charting data that we have at FTN to chart cornerbacks based on coverage, based on their coverage on every snap where they are in coverage. And it will not shock you to learn that Kenny Moore is great. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:06:37 However, Jalen Jones, Jalen Jones was good. Julius Brents was meh. Dallas Flowers was not good. Daryl Baker was not good. Now, cornerback coverage is more inconsistent than almost anything else in the NFL, so it's hard to predict with it. But there's no question they need another cornerback. That is the biggest need that this team has is another cornerback. Then I think that there's a lot of places on their roster where there aren't obvious holes, where there are players where you look at and go, that's a reasonable player.

Starting point is 00:07:26 The problem is there aren't enough places on their roster where you go, that's a really good player. It's harder to replace reasonable players than to replace holes. Right? Yeah. Like, you know, Quiddipay and Ebucom and, you know, it looks like they really could use an edge rusher. But it's not that they particularly have a hole in that rusher. There are some guys with some talent, right? I've got a soft spot for Quidipe because he's from Providence.

Starting point is 00:07:52 There you go. You know, the safeties are reasonable, but you don't look at the safeties and go, yeah, yeah, that's a good team at safety. But you also don't look at the safeties and go, my God there's a gaping hole at safety like um I think right guard it would be good would be a good place to upgrade uh but receiver it's the same way right like we don't quite know what Josh Downs is yet Alec Pierce is kind of you know a reasonable guy you know Pittman's kind of special but you're like they could probably use an receiver, but it's not that they particularly have a hole in the top

Starting point is 00:08:28 three at receiver. Now they don't have any depth at receiver. So it's a lot of where do we want to improve our team where we're six, we're a six out of 10. In a lot of places we're a six and we would rather be an eight, but where, which of those positions do we want to try to improve? And then what are we getting out of Richardson? But other than cornerback and maybe guard, I think this is a team that can probably go best player available in every spot because they really just need help. They just, there's a lot of places where they just, they need to try to hit on a guy. That's, I totally agree. I think that's what makes them one of the most interesting teams.

Starting point is 00:09:07 Because like you said, I don't want to say they're kind of stuck in limbo, but some of these guys, you're at least contractually obligated to. And they're not, you know, them being on the roster isn't necessarily an albatross, but it's possible to upgrade over them. That's why, you know, cornerback-

Starting point is 00:09:24 No, it's not an albatross because they don't have any. I can't think of anybody on their team where I go, well, that guy is completely overpaid and that's a bad contract. There's none of that. It's just a lot of sixes. Yeah. When what you want are more eights. You want more DeForest Buckners.

Starting point is 00:09:41 Yeah. I mean, luckily for them, you mentioned cornerback and receiver. That luckily is a position that seems pretty rich for them you mentioned cornerback and receiver that luckily is a position that seems pretty rich for them right there at 15 but uh another thing for the colts which you never know it would i think it would be uncharacteristic for them to move up in the first round just because we haven't really seen them do that but chris ballard will it's not an if but when he is going to move back to acquire more picks. And you almost got to think with like a hunk of players in this draft that match those needs you mentioned,

Starting point is 00:10:16 it makes a lot of sense to scooch back maybe, you know, five, seven picks and just take the best guy available on the board. The number one thing that analytics has learned in the last 20 years about the NFL draft is that it is good to move back. Trading down is almost always a good idea. The only trade up that tends to make sense is for a quarterback because quarterbacks are so special. Otherwise, it makes sense to trade down. Now, there's some research being done that suggests that those of us in the analytics community may have sort of overstated the value of second and third round picks because while the average value of second and third round picks is underrated,

Starting point is 00:10:56 the chances of getting a superstar are so much better in the first round that it makes those first round picks worth a little more. But that being said, you really want as many lottery tickets as possible. And the biggest thing that you can learn about the draft is nobody knows as much as they think they know when it comes to which of these players are going to turn into really good NFL players. None of us, we all overestimate our going to turn into really good NFL players. None of us, we all overestimate our ability to project players into the NFL. So the best knowledge you can have is knowledge of your own fallacies, of the fact that you are not going to be as good at

Starting point is 00:11:39 projecting players. The idea of trading up comes with the idea that you know who's going to be good in the NFL. So you have a guy and he's at this position on your board and you've got to jump ahead of some other team to get that guy because you know that guard is much better than whoever the next guard is. But the reality is we don't really know that that guard is much better than the next guard is. And probably that guard has like a 2% chance of being better than the next guard. And we don't even know if that's true. So the best thing you can go into the draft knowing

Starting point is 00:12:11 is that you overrate your own ability to know. That's right. You got to be humble. And like you mentioned, you got to know that, you know, you are not all knowing and you got to just get more shots at the board. That's why the Colts wound up with 12 picks last year because Chrisris ballard just says you know as many shots as i can get on that most uh successful teams of the last few years of the packers with thompson always traded down

Starting point is 00:12:38 belichick always trading down um they just they amassed picks and they got good players in the second and third and fourth rounds by amassing picks. And, you know, is a player in the third round as likely to become a star as a player in the first round? No. But are three players in the third round more likely to produce a star than one pick in the first round? Yes Absolutely So something not draft related here Obviously Matt Ryan has decided to hang him up And kind of had a fascinating, I guess, last decade to his career But obviously factors into the Colts here a little bit

Starting point is 00:13:19 Spent a pretty chaotic season in which it seemed like he was just kind of along for the ride. But we're going to try and appreciate some Matt Ryan here. I saw you tweet about him the other night. What can you say about him? You think about him much? Because that year in his career, I mean, that year, you know, the NFL careers are filled with final years where you just play one year for another team that's weird, and then that's it. And the NFL is filled with final years in another where you just play one year for another team that's weird and then you and then that's it and the nfl is filled with that and the colts have had a lot of

Starting point is 00:13:51 it over the last couple years with rivers and ryan but i mean nobody will ever think of him as a colt i don't even know if colts fans think of him as a colt he's gonna be a falcon forever i mean that's his career absolutely it was that was such a weird season, honestly. The fact that Matt Ryan was playing for the Colts and it wasn't pretty was almost like third or fourth on the pecking order of craziest things that went on this year. But no, I think that's about all we got for you, Aaron. I appreciate you so much for joining us today. Yeah, absolutely. Did you want to ask me about rookies? You had said something about asking me about rookie players.

Starting point is 00:14:28 Yeah. So, I mean, you had mentioned that, or you and Mike were on there on your recent episode about some of the skill position players, their projections in the upcoming draft, whether it's from a fantasy perspective or just general success. Was there anyone from a skill position standpoint that stood out to you? Because the Colts could be kind of scoping that out as well. Right.

Starting point is 00:14:50 Quarterback is not an issue for Colts fans at all. I don't know what running back is. I don't know what Taylor's contract is. But Vidal, Kamani Vidal from Troy, really does well in our running back projection system. And a lot of film people that I know really like him. And this will surprise you in the Midwest. Blake Corum from Michigan comes out as quite overrated.

Starting point is 00:15:16 There's really nothing on his resume to get that excited about. He got the ball a lot in an offense that ran a lot, but didn't really do anything special with it. Wide receivers, right? That's probably where Colts fans are looking the most. The surprising thing about our playmaker score projections is that Marvin Harrison was not first. Marvin Harrison was fourth, but he would have been first last year. Okay. So it's not that Marvin Harrison doesn't project to be a very good NFL receiver. It's just that we projected a couple of guys higher.

Starting point is 00:15:55 Now it's interesting because we have a element of the projection system that rewards you for having really talented teammates because of the idea that you have to split the yardage, right? Like Harrison could get all the yardage because his teammates weren't that talented, whereas Brian Thomas and Malik Nabors at LSU, one of the three guys from Washington, had to split the ball. So we end up with neighbors and Thomas as our top two guys. Then Roma Dunze from Washington and then Harrison. And Mitchell and Worthy from Texas are also pretty high. And our big sleeper, if you guys want to, if you want a slot receiver, and I mean, you have one, I guess, in downs,

Starting point is 00:16:43 but if you want another one is Luke McCaffrey. Yeah. That's a popular name lately in the mid rounds for, for Colts fans. And of course, Brian Thomas, I think is kind of, he seems like the most realistic option among those guys. Cause of course a dunes, a neighbors and Harrison that they feel. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Thomas has been a very en vogue option for Colts fans. I mean, when you're the second guy on an offense,

Starting point is 00:17:09 but you're still producing at that level, that's always really good to see. Yeah. Thomas had 17 touchdowns last season. So that means he had touchdowns on 4.1% of LSU's pass attempts. No other receiver in the class was above 3.5. So that is a good indicator for success in the NFL. Now here's what's really funny. The article I wrote on ESPN Plus, we gave guys with similar metrics in the playmaker score, so similar college stats and whatever. Okay, here are the two guys who came out as most similar to Brian Thomas, Calvin Johnson.

Starting point is 00:17:49 Okay. And John Ross. Okay. So opposite ends of the spectrum. You almost could not be any more different. You almost could not be any more different when it comes to what your NFL career turned into. So yeah,

Starting point is 00:18:02 who knows? If you split the middle though, that's still pretty good. Cause the Calvin Johnson part is so high above. Thomas is a good guy. I think Thomas is better. The Playmaker score certainly thinks Thomas is better than what scouts, most of the big boards seem to have it as. And Playmaker definitely says if the Colts took Thomas at, what are they, 17th? 15th. 15th. If the Colts took Thomas at 15 what are they, 17th? 15th. 15th. If the Colts took Thomas at 15th, it would be a reasonable pick. And if the Colts traded back and got Thomas at like 22, that would be even a better pick.

Starting point is 00:18:36 And sounds like you think more of what Ballard is likely to do. Yeah. I've got to think, unless there's one of their true blue chip horseshoe type guys available that follows them at 15 i do think they would look 22 is actually what you said that's that's kind of been we also project edge rushers and uh our projections are basically chalk the projections basically say what the scouts believe is what the projections create so if they wanted to take an edge rusher in the first round, it was Dallas Thomas.

Starting point is 00:19:08 Is that his? Dallas Turner. Yeah. Turner, Dallas Turner. And then, and then verse and then lot two. And those are the top three guys.

Starting point is 00:19:17 And one of them should be available at 15. If the Colts want to do edge rusher. Yeah. That's what it seems like. And I mean, edge rusher is kind of a sneaky need because you had mentioned these guys earlier. Quiddy Pay, if they don't pick up his fifth year option,

Starting point is 00:19:31 he's a free agent next year. Same with Dio Adengbo, Samson Ebucom, two years down the road. So coming up soon, they're going to need to kind of fortify that edge group. But they really are. I think they really are in a position where they can just take the best player available with every pick. As long as they end up with a

Starting point is 00:19:50 cornerback at some point in like the first three rounds, I think they can feel good about taking just the best player available with every pick. Yeah, I think so too. Well, Aaron, I really appreciate your time, man. Actually, one more important question I saw on Twitter. Did you figure out yet what your pre-draft dinner is going to be? I have leftover brisket. I made brisket for Seder and I had, I asked for the largest brisket that they had. So I have so much leftover that I will not need to worry about actually

Starting point is 00:20:24 cooking on Thursday night. It's because for people who don't know, it's Passover, and I'm the cook in my family, and cooking on Passover is even more complicated because you can't eat certain things. And cooking before the draft is even more complicated because I have to be done.

Starting point is 00:20:39 Usually I work until like 6.30, whatever, and then I play video games for a half an hour. Whatever. No, no, no, no, no. Draft starts at eight. You gotta be sitting at the TV at eight o'clock. So that's exactly right. Well, that sounds like good eats for a whole week. I'm right there with you.

Starting point is 00:20:53 All right. Thanks again, Aaron. All right. Don't forget folks, ftnfantasy.com slash DVOA for those people who don't know where to find me or where I've been for the last few months, FTN fantasy.com.

Starting point is 00:21:08 Yeah. And of course his, his Twitter handles right here as well. That's at a shots NFL on X Twitter, whatever you want to call it now. Yeah. And threads as well. Thanks again to Aaron for joining us.

Starting point is 00:21:21 That was great. Hope you guys learn as much as I did. We're going to go ahead and ski data. We'll have another episode, full length episode coming up here shortly. But first I want to let you guys know that this episode was brought to you by our sponsor, BetterHelp. Sometimes we all need the opportunity to get something off of our chest, big or small, certain things can really start to get to you. And it's important to let that out, especially to someone who is unbiased in your life. Therapy can be different for everyone.

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Starting point is 00:22:45 nine, 10 guys, however many they're going to wind up with. And you'll want to learn more about them. So obviously you can come here and learn about them horseshoehuddle.com. But you can also nerd out and read on the draft guide as well. If you don't already follow at locked on Colts at Jake Arthur NFL and at Zach Hicks too on Twitter. Also be sure to subscribe on YouTube and wherever you listen to podcasts. We would also love your ratings and reviews as well. And with that, we will see you guys later.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: DVOA-Determined Needs and the Value of Trading Back, with Aaron Schatz

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