Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts Face New Atlanta Falcons QB, get Optimism from Injury Report

Starting point is 00:00:00 Every game is a playoff game for the Indianapolis Colts for the rest of this season, but the Falcons are going to throw a new quarterback at them this weekend, and we don't even know who's going to be on the field for the Colts quite yet. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome everyone to another Crossover Thursday. Of course, I am the host of Locked on Falcons, Aaron Freeman, a very humble host, joined by the illustrious Jake Arthur,

Starting point is 00:00:58 one of the co-hosts of the Locked on Colts podcast alongside Zach Hitt. And this Crossover Thursday is brought to you by PrizePix, the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. All you got to do is go to prizepix.com slash locked on NFL and use code in all lowercase locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. And we thank each and every one of you everydayers that tune into Locked on Falcons and Locked on Colts every single day. And we appreciate you guys here on today's crossover Thursday. And of course, Jake, Zach, myself, we'll have you all covered all week long on our respective podcasts. And if you want to be coming every day or so you can get that insight into this week 16 matchup, of course,

Starting point is 00:01:42 make sure you subscribe and follow for free on youtube or wherever you listen to podcasts so jake we have two teams that are technically in playoff contention although the arrow seems to be pointing definitely up for the indianapolis colts and pointing very much down for the atlanta falcons based off of their recent performances with the Colts. I think winning what four out of the last five or five out of the last six at this point, they were shooting for five in a row and just totally no showed against a sensei, but they came back against the Steelers. Luckily. Yeah, that was a very impressive sort of come from behind.

Starting point is 00:02:18 And it seems like the Colts just find ways to win. And then each week they kind of have to shift it and adjust it. And the Falcons on the other hand, just find ways to lose, and then each week they kind of have to shift it and adjust it. And the Falcons, on the other hand, just find ways to lose. Each week it's something else that springs up that disappoints you. But I know for this Colts team heading into this week, their sort of big story is on some of the injuries on their offensive side of the ball that could potentially affect their ability to match up against this Falcon team. We'll talk later in the episode about some of those matchups, but give the listeners sort of the lowdown on sort of what's going on with the Colts this week. Yeah, I mean, the Colts are already kind of in playoff mode right now. Three games left. They're

Starting point is 00:03:00 in a three-way tie on top of the AFC South. Obviously, not all three teams are going to make that. So if the Colts want to win the division, they got to win out. If they want to get a wild card spot, they hopefully got to go two and one at worst. So they really are in must-win mode, limiting the mistakes. They've been another team at times that find a way to lose. But we really don't know offensively what it's going to look like this week. You know, you've got Michael Pittman Jr. in the concussion protocol after taking that huge hit that got Demonte Casey suspended. You got Jonathan Taylor. He's been out for a few weeks, but there's kind of optimism that he might be back this week. He's already starting to participate in practice as well,

Starting point is 00:03:45 so that's beneficial for the Colts. Zach Moss hurt his arm against the Steelers. That's been the guy who's filled in for Jonathan Taylor whenever needed this season. So you don't know. Michael Pittman is far and away your top pass target. He's dominated the shares of that. So without him, you got to wonder what

Starting point is 00:04:05 that looks like. And then without those two running backs, you know, they did really, really well with Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson last week, 170 yards on the ground. But you, you can't count on that every week. And of course the Steelers weren't really keying in to go up against that because all that stuff transpired early in the game, it seemed like. So that's, that's really it for the Colts. You know, they have to win, but we don't even know what that looks like yet in this matchup. Yeah, the Falcons are dealing with some of their own injuries. I'm sure we'll talk more about that when we get to some of the key matchups in this game as well.

Starting point is 00:04:40 And similarly, they are in must win mode at this point, if they want to keep their mathematical playoff shots alive, I think it's less than 10%, depending on where you look at right now. And they still got a shot running the table and they made a quarterback change. That's the big story of the week for the second time this year, they're, they're back to benching Desmond Ritter for Taylor Heineke and hoping that he provides a spark for this Falcons offense to potentially run the table, get this team to their first winning season since 2017, and also their first potential playoff appearance since 2017. Even though they're like a game, I think a game and a half behind the first place team. It does feel like to really have a shot,

Starting point is 00:05:26 they're going to have to sort of win out at this point in time. And the story all week long on lockdown Falcons is related to that quarterback change. And what does it mean for the sort of not only the short term for the Atlanta Falcons and how they perform down the stretch, but also the longterm and especially their head coach, Arthur Smith, right? His future is now kind of cloudy. We're getting a lot of Matt rule vibes now in Atlanta, where you have this sort of coach

Starting point is 00:05:52 that's just have a revolving door at the quarterback position. And, you know, it's going to lead to, I think a little desperation potentially this off season. a little desperation potentially this offseason um should arthur smith sort of survive um to to hit on that quarterback which i'm sure colts fans are very familiar with that idea of like being desperate trying to hit on a quarterback after having a revolving door so you know i know you guys get what i'm talking about but i think in the process of focusing on trying to get that quarterback situation right. Other issues have cropped up this year for this Falcon team, and they're just not quite as good as we expected

Starting point is 00:06:31 them to be. And that's leading to a lot of the criticism towards Arthur Smith, that some of the things that we thought the team would be more effective at doing this year, like running the football, has really struggled for most of this season. I think that's going to be a specific challenge against his Colts team just because of that quarterback change. I don't know if you're going to go into this game feeling like you can put it all on Taylor Heineke's shoulders to go out there and win you the game. So they need that running game to sort of come through. But we can talk a little bit more about that and as well as other matchups coming up on

Starting point is 00:07:04 today's crossover Thursday. And we'll get into all of that, guys, as we continue today's episode. But it is the holiday season, and that means the weather is getting colder. But the NFL offers over at FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook, are hot, hot, hot. And right now, new customers can get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 Moneyline bet. That's $150. If your team wins, why not put some money on the Colts this week on that Moneyline bet, right? And it's a great time to join FanDuel. There's no better time to get in on an action. And whether you want to bet money line, whether you want to bet the spread, it's now one and a half in the Falcons favor.

Starting point is 00:07:46 The spread has moved because Fandle feels like Taylor Heineke gives the Atlanta Falcons a better chance of winning this game, which, you know, I'm a little curious Fandle, why you think that, but you know, whether it's those spreads player props over unders Fandle has it all.

Starting point is 00:08:02 So head to Fandle.com slash locked on to stay warm and cozy all winter long. Fandle is an official partner of the NFL. So continuing today's crossover Thursday with myself, Aaron Freeman of Locked On Falcons and Jake Arthur of Locked On Colts. And before we get into some of these key matchups, I do want to plug the innovative and iconic Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day who has started the first ever 24-7 streaming channel, Locked On Sports Day. The local shows like Locked On Sports Atlanta has their 24-7 streaming channel.

Starting point is 00:08:34 You can get all the national headlines on Locked On Sports Day from across the leagues, the local expertise. And if you're a little bit more local to the state of Georgia, check out Locked On Sports Atlanta's 24-7 streaming channel so you can get some of that insight as well. But, Jake, talking about these matchups, and as I mentioned earlier, you know, I think injury is going to impact this Falcon team. And sort of the matches I'm looking at sort of depend on whether or not the Falcons get David Onyemata and Caleb McGarry healthy back this week. David Onyemata, their big-time free agent pickup at D-tackle, has been their most reliable pass rusher this year, especially with Grady Jarrett being out for the season midway with an ACL tear.

Starting point is 00:09:13 And then you have McGarry, who they're starting right tackle, that their running game has been very limited these last two weeks since McGarry has missed time, in part due to his replacement Storm Norton being a decent, you know, swing tackle, but he doesn't necessarily impact the game in the sort of Falcons outside zone run blocking scheme in the same ways that McGarry does. And both of these guys, the Falcons lost to that field turf up in MetLife Stadium. So, you know, you know, that kind of derailed their season a little bit, but those two players getting them back healthy this week, I think it's going to matter a lot.

Starting point is 00:09:49 They're both sat out Wednesday's practice. We'll see if we get some good news later in the week, but I think their presence in this game is going to really matter for the Falcons because I think getting pressure on Gardner Minshew is going to be key that the Falcons are going to need, you know, Gardner Minshew to have one of those bad games that he's had from time to time, maybe turn the ball over, get some pressure on him. I know he struggled there, but Onyemata's the only guy that gets reliable pressure. And if he's not playing, then the Falcons definitely did get more from their edge group, potentially going up against maybe rookie right tackle Blake Freeland. I don't know if Braden Smith's on the men coming back this week.

Starting point is 00:10:28 And then on the offensive side of the ball, without that reliable run game, as I said earlier, I don't know if you want to rely on Taylor Heineke potentially having to throw the ball 40 plus times in order to win this game. And the ways that you would like to attack this Colts defense with Gus Bradley and the propensity to play a lot more cover three, you want to attack this Colts defense with Gus Bradley and the propensity to play a lot more cover three. You want to attack that with in-breaking routes, dagger concepts. For those people that don't know what a dagger concept is, it's when you have a vertical clear out route and then you kind of run a in-breaker or dig route behind it. And the Falcons have been

Starting point is 00:10:58 very effective using that with Desmond Ritter at the helm, given that so many teams play cover three against them to try to get that extra defender in the box to stop the run. But when Heineke started against the Vikings, he really struggled executing those concepts against that team. And so that's going to be a concern because I don't know if Heineke has it in him basically to be able to lead that passing attack. So getting McGarry back, I think is going to be key, just like on Yamada. But those are kind of the two key matchups for me on long line of scrimmage. I think really matter for the Falcons this week. What are some of the matchups that you're looking at?

Starting point is 00:11:37 Yeah. So for, for the Colts, the most reliable thing they could do when it comes to winning this season is basically when that pass rush is coming, you know, up until they hit that skid against the Bengals, they had 21 sacks in four games during that win streak. And against the Bengals, it just totally fell off. And Jake Browning tore them apart. And then here you go against the Steelers. You come back and they go in a 13-0 hole, but then they wind up reeling off 30 points from there to the end of the game and winning 30-13. And they got four sacks.

Starting point is 00:12:11 Right now they're sitting on 46 for the season, which is I think tied for third in the whole league right now. That is also tied for the Indianapolis era franchise record in the single season. So all they have to do is get one more sack and they've got a new record. So three games left. It's certainly been a really impressive pass rush throughout the year. And you can't even just single in on like one guy like, OK, here's your dominant alpha pass rusher. They've got four guys with at least six sacks right now, you know, and they're getting it

Starting point is 00:12:42 from the first and second waves as well. I mean, Quiditty pay is doing well that's the guy that most people know at defensive end uh but samson ebukom and dio adango are really leading the charge divorce buckner's doing really well also and you get contributions from some of these other guys you know isaiah land and uh jake martin gets you some some occasional pass rush as well. Taequann Lewis is having a nice, solid season. So the waves of pass rushers that Chris Ballard, the GM, has always dreamed of, this is when it has finally kind of come to fruition. And so the pass rush and the defense has really been the steam engine for this team.

Starting point is 00:13:23 The offense, they've been able to win sometimes without them being very productive. So I'm really interested to see what this is going to look like because they beat a really impressive Steelers defense last week with Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson at running back. And then Michael Pittman Jr. went out and it was, you know, DJ Montgomery and Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, but the passing game kind of disappeared after Pittman did for the most part, you know, Montgomery had a couple nice plays, but I mean, even though he finished the game with, I think 48 yards and a touchdown, he also had a couple of drops as well. So without Pittman, what does Minshew do? Like who,

Starting point is 00:14:03 who's going to be his safety blanket? Because we really don't know. Things with him and Josh Downs haven't always been smooth. It seems like they've got some miscommunications because Downs runs a lot of option routes, and it seems like they're not always on the same page as to what's going to go on there. So I'm curious if Pittman is able to play what they do because any success they might have against someone like A.J. Terrell, who's, you know, criminally underrated in the league. I don't think it looks the same if it's Alec Pierce or Michael Pittman Jr. Number one, Pittman is your ex receiver. He's the guy that does all your dirty work.

Starting point is 00:14:40 They've started to give Pierce a little more responsibility. Let him do some things over the middle. But he's still your your backside, your downfield guy. So DJ Montgomery is probably going to be the guy that would fill that role primarily if Pittman can't go. So I'm just really interested to see how this offense works. I do feel for the Colts benefit, like it's lucky they have someone like Shane Steichen to kind of cook up that game plan there. But at the same time, a lot of these guys you're working with, you don't have a lot of experience seeing them in a significant role. I mean, what they did against the Steelers and what worked

Starting point is 00:15:16 against them is not necessarily what's going to do the same for Atlanta. So beyond the pass rush, just I'm more curious about that offense and specifically who is going to be that top pass target because it's been far and away Michael Pittman Jr. Like every week. So I think however they decide to attack, that'll be pretty interesting. Yeah. I think a Michael Pittman less Colts offense becomes a much easier proposition for the Falcons to slow down and maybe keep the scoring in a range where, you know, even Heineke can get you a W. So we'll see about that.

Starting point is 00:15:56 Like Josh Downs is one of those really dynamic players that to me is the perfect type of player that could feast against the falcons defense with a lot of some of the those underneath option routes and using his speed horizontally uh carolina had a lot of success with uh i don't even know the guy's first name but his last name is smith marcette just kind of running like jet sweeps and stuff with him last week just trying to stretch the falcons defense horizontally with his speed and whatnot and i think josh downs could could be an asset if the colts do try to attack that especially um if michael pitman is limited in this game and when you look at that colts pass rush you're right it's a really good pass rush and the falcons have been beat up on their offensive line the last couple of weeks mcgary's missed time chris lindstrom sat out last week drew dalmanahlman sat out last week. Jake Matthews has missed a little bit of time in recent weeks.

Starting point is 00:16:47 Again, all stemming from that MetLife Stadium. But hopefully there's optimism this week that those guys will be back in the lineup and the Falcons will at least get four out of their five starters on the offensive line, which they'll definitely need going up against this Colts pass rusher, as you mentioned, that has been playing really well with guys like Ebukim and Odengbo. I don't know how to say his name. Odengbo. Odengbo. Yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 00:17:17 And of course, the incomparable DeForest Buckner as well. So we'll see how these two teams match up. We will continue talking about sort of the paths to victory for both of these teams and maybe potentially give some score predictions today as we wrap up on crossover Thursday. Now, good, bad or in between, it is tough to root for your favorite team on an empty stomach. So why not order your faves with DoorDash? Whether your team is winning, order something to celebrate. If your team is losing, order that pick-me-up.

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Starting point is 00:19:00 So where do you sort of see how this game plays and maybe a way that it plays out so that the Colts walk away with another win? Yeah. So, I mean, I think the Colts should win this one. I don't, I'm not super confident in it. Like Atlanta does some things really well. You know, their run game is nice. Although Grover Stewart being back for the Colts has certainly helped them, but without them, they were giving up 150 yards per game on the ground, and he's just one guy. With him in the lineup, it's still over 100 yards per game. Atlanta could run the ball.

Starting point is 00:19:33 B. John Robinsons don't really grow on trees either. It's tough for any defense to contain a guy like that. Still, I think the pass rush will matter. I am a little worried about the Colts offense just because there's some certain areas that Atlanta excels. You know, they've had four games this year where they've given up under 14 points. They're a decent scoring defense. Third in the red zone is kind of scary for me as well because the Colts, they're just middle of the road and they've actually kind of struggled there a lot of the year. That is going to put a reliance on Matt Gay, the kicker who overall for the season, really, really solid. But over the last couple of games, he's had a

Starting point is 00:20:15 couple of misses in each of those games. So he's going through some sort of mini slump right now. And while this is normally a good week to have a really good kicker, you got to hope from a Colts perspective that he's got all his, whatever his issues are, that he's got all those squared away. Cause you need a reliable kicker in this type of matchup. I'll be at eighth against the pass. And that's not really the Colts forte. Anyways, with Gardner Minshew, very limited. I mean, defenses know the size of the box that he's going to throw into,

Starting point is 00:20:45 you know, that he's not going to paint the field. That's not his game. I do like that they're not a team that takes the, they don't take it away a bunch and they don't get a ton of sacks. I do think that helps him out immensely because when Gardner is turning the ball over, which he is prone to do on occasion. He can fumble in bunches. He can make boneheaded picks. That's when the Colts really melt down. They have a terrific track record this year when they're not turning the ball over. And then as far as sacks go, the Colts offensive line has kind of turned back the clock. They're looking more like that 2019, 2020 version rather than the disaster that was the last year and a half.

Starting point is 00:21:25 So that's really helpful for them. I'm very curious about the injuries. Again, I hate to put that much of an emphasis on injuries, but the Colts offense just could look drastically different than what we're used to seeing because of the amount of playmakers that could be out. But with that said, I'm going to rely on that, that Colts defense. And I'm going to say 20 to 13 Colts in this one.

Starting point is 00:21:48 Yeah. I think we see the game in a, in a similar way. I kind of see it as the Colts find ways to win and they do. Yeah. That's been something that the Falcons have, have really kind of struggled with. Like if you, they're on this two game slide and you go back early in the season, That's been something that the Falcons have really kind of struggled with.

Starting point is 00:22:08 They're on this two-game slide, and you go back early in the season, they had a two-game road slide against Detroit and Jacksonville. And then in week five, in a home game against Houston, Desmond Ritter played the best game of his career. And that sort of sparked them to a win to sort of stop that slide. And then you go back to them losing three games going into their bye week, and then they come out at home against the Saints and they win and they had the best rushing day of their season against that Saints defense. And so now I feel like the Falcons need to have history kind of repeat itself. And, you know, that means Taylor Heineke has to have a

Starting point is 00:22:44 really good game or their run game has to really get going. But as you know, that means Taylor Heineke has to have a really good game or their run game has to really get going. But as you said, like with Grover Stewart back, I think the Colts will be able to keep that contained. And some of the concerns of the Falcons have up front, I'm not expecting this running game to pop off, you know, 200 plus yards rushing this week against the Colts. And so I think that's going to be the challenge for this Falcon team. And I think the ways that they win this game is you get that good performance from Taylor Heineke, right? You get that kind of stinker type of game from Gardner Minshew where he turns the ball over. The Colts get off to kind of a slow start.

Starting point is 00:23:17 And, you know, and maybe you get another sort of X factor from the Falcons, which is that special teams. Maybe Matt Gay misses a couple of those field goals where the Falcons play that bin, but don't break defense in the red zone. And the Colts come away with no points rather than, you know, three or seven in that instance, or, you know, I know the Colts had a, didn't they have a block punt last week against the Steelers? Am I misremembering that? Uh, the Steelers had one against the Colts, but two weeks ago against the Titans, the Colts had two block punts. Okay. So I'm thinking maybe the Falcons block a punt or something like that, and they've had guys like Zach Harrison and Kadero Hodge

Starting point is 00:23:55 in recent weeks get close to that. Maybe they get a Cordero Patterson touchdown return on kickoffs. Maybe D. Alford, their punt returner, has had a couple of nice returns when he isn't muffing the ball. But maybe you get a Colts muff or something like that. Some type of big play on special teams that I think is going to help spark this team and give them that extra emphasis that they may not necessarily get offensively. And that's the way that the Falcons win this. But right now, I don't expect the Falcons to do it. I think it'll be a close game.

Starting point is 00:24:25 You'll probably see a slow start. The Colts kind of get up to a halftime lead and then kind of coast in the second half, coast in the second half. And then the Falcons kind of make a late surge and try to get it close. And maybe they make enough plays to win it late. But I have the Colts kind of winning this one like 24 to 20 at the end of this. So I think it will be a competitive game. But I just don't know. Basically, based off of how the Falcons have played

Starting point is 00:24:48 the last couple of weeks, not having a lot of confidence that Heineke is going to be any sort of upgrade over Desmond Ritter, I don't necessarily see them winning this one. But we'll just sort of have to see if either one of these teams live up to our expectations. But that's going to do it for us here on today's Crossover Thursday. We'll have more to come, of course, all week long, keeping you guys covered through the

Starting point is 00:25:17 holiday weekend with some interesting football games. Make sure you check out Locked on Sports today to get geared up their 24-7 streaming channel to get geared up for all the other things going on around the various leagues that Locked On covers. It's all part of the Locked On Podcast Network. We appreciate you guys

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts Face New Atlanta Falcons QB, get Optimism from Injury Report

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