Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Gameplan for Anthony Richardson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Starting point is 00:00:00 Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is set for his first start this Sunday. Can the young QB lead the team to victory? Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by Bird Dogs.

Starting point is 00:00:42 Go to birddogs.com slash locked on NFL or enter promo code locked on NFL for a water bottle with any order. You don't want to, you won't want to take your bird dogs off. We promise you. I am your host, Zach Hicks, your favorite film nerd over at horseshoehuddle.com. And today I'm joined by nobody. It's just me yet again. Yes. Well, the solo shows are continuing. Before we get into today's show, I do want to shout you guys in the saddle and we will be back rolling along with all these Locked On Colts episodes. But for today, you're just stuck with my beautiful voice without the sultry rhythm of Jake's voice throughout this show here. But we have a fun show for you today. First, we're going to talk about the news and notes that came from this Monday.

Starting point is 00:01:45 Everything that Shane Steichen had to say to the media, everything that the Colts did roster-wise, and then we're going to talk a lot of Anthony Richardson in the final two segments. We're going to talk about what kind of game plan the Colts could devise for the young quarterback against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and then we're going to finish this show off with some year one projections for Anthony Richardson, and if we're taking the over under on some of these projected stat totals, we'll get into all of that there in segment three. But starting off a little bit of news and notes, you know, just some housekeeping here. Colts offensive guard or offensive tackle, however you want to label him, Arlington Hambright has

Starting point is 00:02:20 been signed to the practice squad. And then in a corresponding move, Dan Skipper, the veteran offensive tackle that they had on the practice squad previously has been released. So Arlington Hambright, a guy who had a really good offseason, did a lot of good things at playing a tackle, playing a guard. He was released, obviously, with some of the roster moves they made over the weekend. But a good player to have on the practice squad, good player they can call up if they need. So great, great to have him back. And then two injury news and notes here,

Starting point is 00:02:50 Zach Moss running back who's projected to be the starter for this team. Once he's back from injury, head coach Shane Steichen did say Moss is progressing pretty well through that injury. Again, it was a broken forearm. So like you need that forearm obviously to play running back but uh it's not the end of the world is it's not as bad as it could have been let's say that it's not as bad as what it could have been it could have been a leg injury it could have been something with a plant leg or something like that uh but a broken arm that's something where you know you're

Starting point is 00:03:19 mostly just dealing with that bone and getting that back to back to health there uh shane second did note a couple times, though, that because it was an arm injury instead of a leg injury or something like that, Zach Moss has been able to keep his conditioning up. He's been able to work with the training staff to to not lose the progress that he was making throughout the summer. So that's a really positive sign there. So we'll see. I mean, I know Aaron Wilson had a report recently, Aaron Wilson, I believe of like a Houston Chronicle or something like that, or you guys can go check him out on

Starting point is 00:03:49 social medias. But Aaron Wilson reported the other day that Zach Moss is not likely to be back until week two or three. So Dion Jackson, Evan Holt are the projected starters for week one, but we'll keep an eye on it. You know, they haven't ruled Zach Moss out yet. And you guys are listening to this show on Wednesday. So the first practice report of the entire season will come out later today. And we'll see what Zach Moss's designation is on there. If it's limited, you know, it could be a good sign for playing in week one. If he's out or just doesn't practice at all,

Starting point is 00:04:24 then, you know, it could lead to him probably not playing in week one. So we'll see. We're not ruling him out yet. But Shane Steichen does seem to be, you know, kind of optimistic about the about Zach Moss going forward and being that starting running back. Linebacker Shaquille Leonard is still in the concussion protocol. Again, you don't want to rush players through this with especially with all the recent findings when it comes to concussions and players. And this is Shaquille Leonard's. I want to say it's his third concussion in the NFL

Starting point is 00:04:47 he had one back in 2019 and then he had one last year on the same play that broke his nose when he came back against the Tennessee Titans last year so Shaquille Leonard you want to play it safe with him it's all about when he clears that concussion protocol if he'll be ready for week one so it could be as early as today when you guys are listening to this and he ends up practicing on Wednesday, or it could be a couple weeks down the line. You can never really rush concussions. And I know this is frustrating for a lot of you guys listening

Starting point is 00:05:16 and it being a very optimistic offseason for Shaquille Leonard, him getting back out there, seemingly getting through the back and ankle injuries and getting back on the football field just to suffer concussion and miss, you know, a last week, week and a half of activity. So hopefully he can clear that protocol soon and get back out on the field and do what he's been doing all summer long. But we'll have to wait and see with Leonard there.

Starting point is 00:05:41 I know Shane Steichen had some very positive words to say about him, especially with his leadership ability, but we got to get him back on the field. You know, there's something we talked about going into camp, and now it's something that we're talking about already with week one right around the corner. So it sucks. Concussions are part of football, and I'm glad the Colts are playing it safe there, but we'll see. We'll see if he's going to be able to suit up for week one or if it'll be something where, you know, we have to wait a couple more weeks down the line. Some other minor things that Shane Steichen said in his media availability here on Tuesday, he was asked about the four guys at wide receiver, which I know when we're all just looking at wide receiver, we're

Starting point is 00:06:20 like, oh my gosh, how are they going to go into week one with just four? Shane Steichen did kind of laugh it off a little bit and said, we'll see. We're still kind of working through that this week. So they could, again, bring a guy up for the practice squad. They could sign a veteran. But as of right now, the Colts do have nine wide receivers in the organization. Four of them are on the active roster, but they have five on the practice squad right now. So it's not that they only have four guys available to them when it comes down to this Sunday. They can call up two or three of those guys.

Starting point is 00:06:49 I think it's two guys. I think it's two guys that actually can call up. They can call up four this game on Sunday. So they can call up two guys and have six, and we'll all be perfectly fine with that number there. But just when you're looking at the roster in totality and looking at the four guys, it does look a little bit more concerning than what it is.

Starting point is 00:07:07 He was asked another question. That's kind of a, again, more of a housekeeping question that I just want to make note of to you guys. He asked, with all the things you adjust to in the running back room, no Jonathan Taylor. You've had Zach Moss off. How do you look at that for game day? And Steichen kind of went out of his way to mention that's going to be a running back by committee here in Indy so they're going to be getting out you know a number of different guys you know it's going to be Evan Hole if he's the hot hand it's going to be Dion Jackson if he's the hot hand if they have to call up a Jake Funk or call up a Jason Huntley then if one

Starting point is 00:07:39 of those guys gets hot they're going to get the ballane steichen really took this non-committal approach to the running back room without jonathan taylor there to where you know obviously moss when he's healthy he's going to get a majority of the run uh and deon jackson they like a lot evan hole will have a lot of packages for him as well but they're not going to have that one defined bell cow running back you know it's going to be kind of what we saw with the philadelphia eagles last year where miles sanders one of the most efficient running backs in the entire league, especially on a yards per carry basis. But if there were a game where he was not carrying the ball well, or just not finding open lanes, and then they had Boston Scott ripping off 10 yard runs, then Boston Scott was going to get 10 carries, you know, or Kenneth Gainwell was going to get

Starting point is 00:08:21 a handful of carries or guys like that, you know, that Philadelphia Eagles type of approach at running back. Shane Steichen is going to bring that here to Indy without Jonathan Taylor, where it's like, yeah, we have our guys that we prefer to get touches, but we're not going to force it just to force it unless you have that start running back. So as long as as long as Jonathan Taylor is out, you're just going to ride that hot hand. And we saw in a couple of games last year. I mean, the game that I really point to was one of the games that Jonathan Taylor went down with his injury in that Minnesota Vikings game

Starting point is 00:08:49 obviously not the greatest game ever to point out because the Colts blew the biggest lead in NFL history but in that game I believe Zach Moss and Deion Jackson both had around 13 to 15 carries around 60 to like six like it was like 55 to like 65 yards rushing. So they're like by themselves, it was just more of like a pretty solid day for both guys. But at the end of the day, it was a 20 plus rushes for 120 yards rushing out your running backs. That's what you're looking for out the running back room. So yeah, I like that. You know, I like going committee. You're going to keep those guys fresh. You're going to get them on the field. And I think that's what Shane Sikin wants to do if he doesn't have a Jonathan Taylor type back there. But coming up, guys, we're going to keep those guys fresh. You're going to get them on the field. And I think that's what Shane Sikin wants to do if he doesn't have a Jonathan Taylor type back there.

Starting point is 00:09:27 But coming up, guys, we're going to talk all about Anthony Richardson. That is obviously the biggest storyline this week and the rest of the season. So we're going to talk about what the Colts could do with Anthony Richardson in this week one game to get the young quarterback comfortable in that game plan. But before that, let's talk about our friends over at Bird Dogs. Bird Dogs make you look good. Bird Dogs stretch khaki shorts are designed to fit slimmer through the thigh and leg and give you a truly sculpted look. Bird Dog shorts do the exact same thing as Lululemon, but they fit way

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Starting point is 00:11:09 We'll be back tomorrow to talk all things Indianapolis Colts. Again, Jake and I will be back together tomorrow for the first time in like over a week to preview this upcoming game and talk about Colts Jaguars week one. All right, my Colts friends. Now that we've got all that bookkeeping and the housekeeping stuff out of the way at the top of the show, it's time to get in the real meat and potatoes here. We know we got the appetizer out of the way. Let's talk about the meat and potatoes, and that's going to be our friend Anthony Richardson,

Starting point is 00:11:34 starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, 21-year-old starter going into week one. What can we expect from the Colts in terms of just game planning for this young, dynamic quarterback? And you guys know me here at Locked On Colts. I'm the nerd of the podcast. I'm the sports nerd over at the site as well, the big film guy. So you guys are really going to be able to pick my brain here with some of my just nerdy

Starting point is 00:11:56 ramblings on what the Colts can do with him. Now, Anthony Richardson is a unique quarterback. We all know this. It's why the Colts took him as high as they did. He's a super unique quarterback who combines this super strong arm with deep accuracy and deep ball ability, along with this innate ability to escape in the pocket, stand in there against pressure, shed tacklers, and create on the ground. But he's a really raw quarterback. We've talked about this again all off season and in the pre-draft process super raw quarterback so from like day one he's not going to be this you know drew breeze-esque passer where it's going to be a 70 completion percentage

Starting point is 00:12:34 the ball placement is perfect to all areas of the field it's going to be very sporadic and inaccurate play at times but you've got to live with that to get the high level flashes and hope he can grow throughout the year so when you look at the Colts early in the season, especially in this first game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, I think we're going to see a game plan that I don't want to say hides him because that's such a horrible way to call this offense with Anthony Richardson early in the season, but I think it's going to be an offense that is so tailored to stuff he did last year or stuff that worked for the Eagles last year, even, you know, a very, very tailored game plan to keeping things simple for the quarterback. Will that lead to

Starting point is 00:13:17 immediate success here in day one? Probably not. You know, you can't open up the entire game plan yet because you're throwing so much at this young quarterback who, quite frankly, was not that successful as a college quarterback even. So you're going to have to learn with those growing pains. You're going to have to have him steadily build up to running a real NFL offense. So you're going to have to kind of have this mishmash of. Yes, you want to get some NFL concepts and real things in there, but you also want to keep things simple for him and not have the game go too fast early for him and have, you know, just have this explosion of things happening in his face to where it creates this spiraling effect for him. So I think what we're really going to see in this opening day game and obviously for the early games this year is a really heavy emphasis on the run game, the design QB run game, and the short passing game.

Starting point is 00:14:07 Obviously, Anthony Richland's not this elite short passer right now. He's not someone who's going to read the mesh points super well or read the leverage of receivers on stick and spacing routes. But when I talk short passing game, I mean the RPOs, those run pass option plays where he can pull it out and use that arm quickness to get the ball over the field. we're going to see wide receiver bubble in those quick screens a lot too where you know it's a very simple blitz read you know it's oh I see that slot corner blitzing I'm going to pull it out and just throw it to that receiver get an easy completion let him get those

Starting point is 00:14:37 positive yards and create some things for the offense I think that's what a lot of the passing game is going to be with with obviously some mixed in shots, a lot of play action. But I don't think we're going to see too much in terms of, you know, we're not going to see some Peyton Manning levels concepts or anything like that. We're not going to see these really in-depth passing plays and, you know, seven step drop and read three different reads before you're rolling out of the pocket. I don't think we're going to get too much of that early from Anthony Richardson. It's going to be very, very collegey at times where, you know, you're going to do a lot of play action. You're going to do a lot of the quick passing game. You're going to try to give him a lot of half field reads and get into his head early. It's

Starting point is 00:15:16 like, Hey, look, if that half field's not there, don't force it. Just scramble. You are this elite 250 pound rushing quarterback who runs this four, speed, can break tackles effortlessly. That's the strength in your game right now while you're still learning the passing. So if your half-field read's not there, don't try to whip back to the other side to a receiver that's not ready for it and throw an errant pass. Get out there. Use your legs. That's what the Giants did with Daniel Jones last year. It was, look, if it's not there, use your legs that's what the Giants did with Daniel Jones last year it was look if it's not there use your legs don't be afraid to scramble so I think it's going to be a very simplified yet fun offense early in the year for Anthony Richardson because you just don't

Starting point is 00:15:54 want to throw too much at him from day one you want to have things that are simple for him things that are in a way kind of vanilla-y but but from fun sets, you know, from, you know, short guns sets and stuff like that with RPO plays mixed in, with read option plays mixed in. But it's going to be a lot of one-two read stuff because you just don't want to have him going through too many progressions and losing that timing super early in the year. So I think it is going to be a really heavy emphasis on the run game, though. I wouldn't expect him to come out in this week one game and throw the ball 40 times,

Starting point is 00:16:26 even if they are trailing for a good bit of the game. I just don't think that's the game plan to go into this first game with. You want to dictate numbers in the box by utilizing your run game advantage. We've talked about this from the second Anthony Richardson's been drafted by the Colts, where the Colts, unlike most teams, again, you can put them in the same bracket with the Baltimore Ravens, with the Philadelphia Eagles, with the Buffalo Bills, where when a run play is called, it is not 10 on 11 football,

Starting point is 00:16:57 like it is with every other team. You know, like even with like, if you look at like the Chiefs or you look at the Bengals, even two great offenses, when they run the football, it's 10 on 11 football. You might have that backside defense, Ben, just kind of waiting for the pass, and maybe you make it more 10 on 10 football. But for the most part, those two quarterbacks, for how great they are, they're not a rushing threat. But when you have a quarterback like a Josh Allen, a Jalen Hurts, a Lamar Jackson, and an Anthony Richardson, every run play is 11 on 11 football. You know, defenses have to account for Anthony Richardson in the run game. So while you

Starting point is 00:17:30 have that as an innate threat right now against defenses, I feel like the Colts have to lean into that, lean into that pretty heavy. You know, you obviously don't want him taking these heavy hits and getting a lot of pain inflicted on him early in the season, but you have to lean into his strengths early on. While the passing might not be there from an efficient or an effective level completely right now, the running game is going to be there. He's going to be a 7, 8 yards per carry type rusher

Starting point is 00:17:55 because that's just what these quarterbacks do, the quarterbacks with his size and speed. So while the Colts offense might be struggling with the efficiency in the passing game, especially early in the season, because it's going to be pretty simplistic, more short game stuff with the occasional deep shot. You've got to lean into that run game with your quarterback because that's an efficient way to move the ball. Obviously, you want him to protect himself, the game, it's going to be like, you know, 10 to 15 passes under five yards with a couple like, you know, five above 20 yards and very few

Starting point is 00:18:32 within the intermediate type range. I think that's what we're really going to see from the Colts this year. A lot of layups and three pointers, not many mid range twos. So we'll see that he can develop that throughout the course of the season. But I would expect a lot of that from the passing game. Two other points of note, though, that I the course of the season, but I would expect a lot of that from the passing game. Two other points of note, though, that I want to make for this offense that I'm really curious to see is Anthony Richardson in college did a lot of pistol formation and a lot of pre-snap motion at Florida. Those are two things that Shane Steichen really didn't do last year with the Eagles, that the Eagles were bottom five in the NFL

Starting point is 00:19:02 in pre-snap motion. They very, very rarely did pistol formation because Jalen Hurts just wasn't – he didn't really enjoy that too much. He liked more of the short gun stuff or like a little bit just like the empty set stuff. So they didn't really do a lot of the pistol formation. Will Shane Steichen incorporate those two things, though, in Anthony Richardson's early games because that's what he did so much at Florida go back and watch any Florida game from this past season with him at quarterback

Starting point is 00:19:28 that's what a lot of his his offense was pistol formation a ton of pre-snap motion to get that early ID on the defense now does Shane Stike can bring that in just so it's something he's comfortable with that remains to be seen but again the way I want to wrap up this whole segment here is I do think that the Colts are going to lean heavily on the run game. A lot of quick passes, a lot of those layup passes, and just have them hit those layups with the occasional deep three if the defense is coming up too much. But I do expect it to not be this hyper-efficient offense. I expect it to be fairly simplistic in college at times, but it's really just to get Anthony Richardson's feet wet and get ready for the real NFL season and the real development, which will come later

Starting point is 00:20:10 in the year. But coming up, we're going to keep this conversation about Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson going, and we're going to talk about his year one projections. And if we kind of agree with what some of the Vegas books are saying, we're going to look a little bit at that here in just a second. Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from FanDuel, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get 200 in bonus bets. Plus, all customers who bet $5 will get $100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. I mean, I know you guys are in the same boat as me. That is a great deal to get YouTube TV and get all those football games.

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Starting point is 00:21:15 We're going to talk about Anthony Richardson's projections for the season, and we're going to bring back an old friend of ours. We're going to bring back FanDuel here. So FanDuel, our beautiful sponsors of today's show, have Anthony Richardson's passing stats projection this year, just overall passing projections here, is 3,208 yards passing with 17 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions. For rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, they have 847 rushing yards and 6.5 rushing touchdowns. So I know, I know when looking at that, it doesn't look amazing, but to conceptually put that or just put that in perspective, it is very, very rare for a rookie quarterback traditionally in the NFL to throw for over

Starting point is 00:21:59 3000 yards or even over 3,500 yards and stuff like that. You know, it's really hard to even hit the number that they're projecting him for 3,208 yards. So honestly, to have him that high is pretty, pretty good. Again, it's hard for rookie quarterbacks to hit that number. I know with the 17th game, it's probably going to be a lot easier going forward to hit that number. But for, you know, put in perspective last year, none of the rookie quarterbacks even came close that number. I think Kenny Pickett threw for 2,300, given he didn't start the whole season.

Starting point is 00:22:30 But it is tough for rookie quarterbacks, especially quarterbacks of his age. I think I don't think any quarterback outside of I want to say Jameis Winston was the youngest quarterback to throw for over 3,000 yards in the season in the past like 20 years. Threw for like 3,100 as a rookie. So, yeah yeah to have my 3208 yards passing it doesn't seem like a ton but for what where he's coming from i think that's a pretty pretty solid number there uh 17 pass touchdowns 11 interceptions i think you can kind of dance around a little bit with those with those numbers there uh you could see it going as high as 20 you could see it going as low as like 10 passing touchdowns. And then with interceptions, it could be anywhere from shoot with him. It could

Starting point is 00:23:09 be anywhere from like eight to 20. You know, it could kind of go all over the place because you just don't know what the interception luck is going to look like. The really interesting one though, is the rushing yards and rushing touchdowns I think those are really intriguing because that's right around where I'd put him this year when it comes to rushing yards and rushing touchdowns you know 847 850 rushing yards I think is a really good number for him and then the six and a half rushing touchdowns you can't complain there but if we're looking at this year-end projection here just putting all those numbers together, a rookie season is what Fandu is projecting for Anthony Richland. His rookie season being 4,000 total yards, 23 total touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

Starting point is 00:23:53 That would be a massive, massive win for Anthony Richland. I cannot complain whatsoever if that is his year-one passing total or just overall total. Again, I know a lot of you guys would look at that and just not think it looks like the high-end quarterback that you take that early. But for a 21-year-old quarterback who's coming off of a college season that wasn't that amazing, if you were to put together a 4,000 total yard season and over 20 touchdowns, I'm feeling great going into year two of Anthony Richardson. But to kind of conceptualize these numbers even more, let's look at two other young players or players when they were younger that

Starting point is 00:24:30 compare favorably to Anthony Richardson. Let's look at the number one comparison that he has gotten throughout this whole process and going into this rookie season. Let's look at Josh Allen. So Josh Allen as a rookie back in 2018, he only started 12 games. So I did kind of project out his numbers to a 17-game season because he missed some time with an injury. And I think the first two games of the year, or the first game and a half of the year, he did not play. He came in like the second half of the second game of his rookie season. But if you project out his numbers to a 17-game season,

Starting point is 00:25:04 Josh Allen's rookie year in 2018, he completed 52% of his passes for 2,938 yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 893 yards rushing and 11 rushing touchdowns. So again, around 3,700 yards total. And then you put the rushing touchdowns in there, 25 total touchdowns, 17 receptions. Honestly, I'd be okay with that rookie season for Richardson too, because you know that ball's moving. It's just a lot of inconsistencies where Allen was kind of that way where, you know, there was a lot of in that first tape there,

Starting point is 00:25:40 but it was a really solid season overall, just because you could see the flashes from that young quarterback. And obviously we know what Josh Allen is now. I know a lot of people will say he's the exception, not the thing you want to grade a player against. But if we're looking at size, athleticism, arm strength, and just play style, Allen and Anthony Richland are very similar as a young player. As young players, they're very similar.

Starting point is 00:26:01 So if Richland has that kind of season, I still think it's a pretty good win. And the other player I wanted to look at here was Jalen Hurts in 2021, his second year in the NFL, first year under Shane Steichen. Shane Steichen comes in and does some good things for him. He completes 61.3% of his passes, 3,144 yards passing, 16 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 784 yards rushing, and 10 rushing touchdowns nine interceptions 784 yards rushing and 10 rushing touchdowns now the reason I put both those guys in here is I think if I'm projecting Anthony Richardson's rookie season stats and this is given that he plays all 17 games I think somewhere in between those two

Starting point is 00:26:39 rookie seasons is where I would have him projected so I I don't think he's going to like, I think passing, passing yards could go a lot of different ways, but I think right around that 2,900 to 3,100 yards passing is where I feel good projecting. Like I'd probably project right at 3,000 yards passing and feel good there. Uh, the 14 passing touchdowns, the 16, like I think around there, you know, 14, 15, 16 passing touchdowns, interceptions. I do think it'll be in the double digits, but not super high, hopefully. And then the rushing yards again, like 800 plus rushing yards, around 10 rushing touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:27:14 I think that those are really good projections for Anthony Richardson in year one and then completion percentage too. I'm hoping it can be in the high fifties to low sixties. But even if it is a Josh Allen type rookie season where it's a 52%, as long as it's getting better throughout the year, I can't complain too much. But you guys let me know in the comment section or on social media, if you guys are listening on audio versions, you can go to me on social medias at Zach Hicks too. Let me know what you have as your projection for Anthony Richardson in his rookie season.

Starting point is 00:27:45 Do you think he goes over 3000 yards passing? Do you have him over 20 total touchdowns? Do you have him over under 10 interceptions or 15 interceptions? Do you think he can hit the thousand yard rushing mark this season? Do you think it's 10 rushing touchdowns? Let me know in the comment section here on video on YouTube, or let me know on social media as thatKicks2 over on Twitter slash X. And I think that's all we have for today, guys.

Starting point is 00:28:08 Again, every day is Jake will be back with me tomorrow. We're going to talk all things Colts, getting ready for this Jacksonville Jaguars game. And if you guys don't already, follow at LockedOnColts, at JakeArthurNFL, and at ZachKicks2 all on Twitter. Also, subscribe to the LockedOnColts podcast. And wherever you listen to your – on YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. We'd love your guys ratings and reviews and we'll see you guys back here bright and early tomorrow morning.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: Gameplan for Anthony Richardson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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