Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts' Gardner Minshew Set to Shine vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Colts are back from the bye, looking to build a three-game win streak. And once again, it's time to turn the focus back onto the football field and away from what's going on off of it. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right, what's up, everyone? Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day.

Starting point is 00:00:49 This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's Crossover Thursday episode is brought to you by PrizePix, which is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Go to prizepix.com slash locked on NFL and use code all lowercase locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. Again, welcome to the show, everybody. I am Jake Arthur of Locked On Colts. This is my friend James Yarcho of Locked On Buccaneers. And today we're going to take you through this journey that is the week 12 matchup of the Colts and the Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday. We'll walk you guys through the biggest storylines for each team,

Starting point is 00:01:31 the biggest matchups that might determine a win and a loss, and ultimately give our predictions on who we think will win. So honestly, remember too, if you can't make it to watch it on TV, remember that when the Colts host the Bucs this Sunday at 1, you can catch every snap of the hometown broadcast with the SiriusXM on the SXM app. Search either Colts or Buccaneers. Check that out on the radio if you can't catch it on TV. So, James, again, welcome aboard.

Starting point is 00:02:00 And we got, I think this one, the records don't speak to how entertaining this game could be uh four and six bucks five and five colts uh colts are in a log jam of afc where no one really wants to run away with it what are you most focusing on in this matchup uh for sure it's all the injuries that have piled up for the the tampa bay buccaneers I mean last week against the San Francisco 49ers you saw Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin, Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, Levante David all suffer injuries and of course Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs returned to the game but they were very visibly hobbled uh dealing with whatever injuries they had I mean Tristan Wirfs was an ankle um Chris Godwin

Starting point is 00:02:42 appeared to injure that right knee that he had surgery on just a couple years ago. And then Levante David, Jamel Dean, and Devin White were all held out of practice on Wednesday. So now you're talking about a situation where both starting inside linebackers for the Buccaneers didn't practice on Wednesday. And I don't think as of right now, Levante David or Jamel Dean are going to play on Sunday. If I had to guess, in fact, Todd Bowles mentioned to the media, if the game was today, Levante, Jamel, Carlton, and Devin would all be out. So yeah, that's a massive, massive blow to the defense. And it's certainly a positive sign for Bucucks fans that Tristan Wurst was a full participant with that ankle injury and that Jamel Dean is only considered week to week

Starting point is 00:03:30 with his ankle injury it wasn't some as severe as initially thought uh but you know as I said I don't think he plays this weekend and losing Levante David for any length of time at all is likely going to derail the Buccaneers chances to make a run at the NFC South, which is still wide open, especially when you're starting off a stretch of games now where the Buccaneers really have to win five games down the stretch of the rest of the season if they are going to win the NFC South. And of course, they still have four divisional matchups left this season. But now you're starting this stretch against a running back the caliber

Starting point is 00:04:10 of Jonathan Taylor. And when you don't have Mr. Reliable, Levante David, out there on the field, that can cause some serious, serious issues for this Buccaneers team. Yeah, you saying that, I just immediately think of, wow, that's something like a Gardner Minshew could really benefit from an absence like that for the Bucs because the guy loves to pass over the middle of the field, lots of, lots of short passes. So that could be advantageous for the Colts. If that happens, we'll get to more of that later. But for me, there's for the Colts, it never ends. There's always stuff going on off the field.

Starting point is 00:04:48 So Shaquille Leonard obviously waved earlier this week. That's kind of dominated headlines following their bye last week. I don't know if there's going to be a huge adjustment there on the field because he already wasn't playing significant time. He was playing a decent amount of snaps, but we're essentially just going to see more EJ speed at this point. And then there's Jim Irsay stuff as well. Like there tends to be, you know, another interview. But focusing on stuff on the field, the Colts, again, I mentioned they're in this log jam of the AFC playoff race.

Starting point is 00:05:18 They've got a two-game win streak right now, looking to make it three. They really need to take advantage of these winnable games because if they want to make the playoffs, they can't. I know this is an NFC opponent, but they can't really lose these ones that they're supposed to win going into it, especially with how you mentioned how banged up the Buccaneers are. This is one that they've really got to have because they do have a few tough matchups coming up. But no, just looking to get some consistency coming off the bye. Let's try and see if we can get a performance where all three phases show up and have a decent performance because any of their five wins so far, you point to either the offense

Starting point is 00:06:00 or the defense as to why. And the other side didn't really come to play as well as they could. So perhaps a three game win streak and a complete team effort, because again, home stretch, seven games left. You really want to see if this team is serious about making the playoffs, they're going to have to put together some consistency. They can't just be skating by, you know, on the skin of their teeth like they are. So that's probably the biggest thing I'm looking for in this one. Yeah, it's interesting that the South divisions of both conferences are this log jam of mediocrity, which provides entertainment down the final stretch that we're getting into here.

Starting point is 00:06:42 And, you know, through December into January, Bucs fans know that a lot of times we've been talking free agency and draft come Thanksgiving weekend. I'm sure Colts were in full draft mode around this time last year. You had the opportunity that took advantage of to get Anthony Richardson, who was my favorite quarterback in this draft. I'm disappointed that I'm not going to get to watch him, as I'm sure Colts fans are disappointed that he's not on the field. But yeah, consistency when we're talking about a 5-5 football team

Starting point is 00:07:13 against a 4-6 football team, not a lot of it there. They're consistently inconsistent, I think is the best way to put it. Yeah, I think Shane Steichen and the coaching staff tends to keep them afloat. They're a competitive team. Like if they ever mailed it in, that would be a huge problem because they kind of get by with effort right now. And somehow one side of the ball is always able to make up for what the other side is not doing. And again, that's not really sustainable, but they've been able to get by to this point. I don't think they'll be able to do it over a whole season. But yeah, coming up next, the meat and potatoes of this matchup,

Starting point is 00:07:51 which individual matchups or whole units against units, what is going to be the difference between a win and a loss? Guys, prize picks is the most fun that I have had winning up to 25 times my money this football season. You just select two or more players, pick more or less than their stat projections. Half the fun, honestly, is scrutinizing stat projections to begin with, and then you place your entry. And they've got some really cool new things here. Basketball season is obviously here. You can now pick combo projections across multiple sports.

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Starting point is 00:09:52 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked On, plus our national shows covering every league. Go to Locked On Sports Today on YouTube and subscribe to the first ever ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel you might see someone like me on there talking about Shaquille Leonard and his release and what it might mean for other teams moving forward but James let's look at this matchup specifically because again I'm done with Colts off the field stuff I want to talk about actual football stuff uh for once it seems uh but I'll I'll go to you first what matchups when you're looking at this one what do you circle with the red pen and say like this is really where the Buccaneers

Starting point is 00:10:32 can take advantage or they really need to prepare for what the Colts can offer in this area it's actually the the same matchup that I had last week if the B the bucks were going to pull off a big upset and it's the Buccaneers receivers against the Colts secondary and the Colts are allowing over 225 passing yards a game. They've also allowed the fifth most explosive plays this season and the fifth most explosive pass plays. Now granted the Buccaneers have allowed more explosive pass plays, but you have a guy like Mike Evans on the Buccaneers

Starting point is 00:11:07 that has been an explosive play machine this year. He's only 220 yards shy of his 10th consecutive thousand-yard season to start his career, extending his own NFL record. And this is a guy that can get that in one game. So over the course of the Colts' 10 games this season, I did a mini deep dive, shallow dive, I guess. They've allowed a 100-yard receiver in five of 10 games. Of those five, they have allowed a receiver to go over 120-plus yards four times. The teams that they didn't allow a 100 plus yard

Starting point is 00:11:48 receiver against were Baltimore, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Carolina, and New England. And you look at those teams and outside of Jacksonville, which they allowed a 100 plus yarder the first time, it was the second time they shut them down. You look at Baltimore, you look at Cleveland, Carolina, New England, their quarterback situations, their receiver situations, depending on the team. And you're not really surprised here that they didn't allow a 100-yard receiver. So there is opportunity here for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to have very big games. And both teams are likely going to be throwing the ball quite a bit in this could turn as you mentioned to open the show this could be a sneaky entertaining game uh along this this sunday

Starting point is 00:12:32 nfl slate where you know this could turn into a shootout like we're talking both of these teams could put up 30 plus and both of these defenses could easily allow 30 plus. So I would say that the Buccaneers have the better wide receiver duo between the two teams right now. I love Josh Downs. And, of course, Michael Pittman Jr., he is Buccaneers family royalty there. So a big Pittman fan too. But I would say as of right now at this moment, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the better duo

Starting point is 00:13:05 over Michael Pittman and Josh Downs so there's going to be lots of plays out there for this this Buccaneers wide receiver duo and while Godwin's kind of the move the sticks sure-handed guy Evans is the guy that can stretch the field get chunk plays and then you have Rashad White who's going to get plenty of targets he leads all running backs not named Christian McCaffrey in receptions and yards after catch. And he's the number one running back in the league in yards after catch over expected. So there's still that little element, too,

Starting point is 00:13:34 that also opens things up down the field for Evans and Godwin. So they're the wheel that keeps this machine moving, and I expect that they're going to have solid success against the Colts. Yeah, this matchup in general has kind of given me Colts Browns vibes from earlier in the season. The over under was like 40 and a half. They almost scored 80 combined. This, this one, again, it feels more like a shootout to me than it does just a defensive slugfest. Cause again, both defenses really haven't always shown the ability to do that. But Mike Evans is definitely someone I'm very concerned with. For the Colts, Juju Brents is still not practicing. He's been out for a few weeks now.

Starting point is 00:14:13 And he had really become their top outside cornerback. You know, they've had some other injuries, but with him still out, you're hoping that Daryl Baker Jr. can keep playing at a high level, but they've kind of had some easier matchups. Panthers, really bad offense. Patriots, really bad offense. But he's really grown from the beginning of the year. So you hope he is able to kind of hold his own there. Jalen Jones has been a rookie that, a late round pick, sixth rounder that is just, or seventh rounder, that's been a pleasant that, you know, a late round pick, sixth rounder that is just, or seventh rounder, that's been a pleasant surprise.

Starting point is 00:14:47 Of the rookie cornerbacks they invested in, the three of them, he's been easily the most steady ever since OTAs. So I'm really interested there. But looking at Mike Evans, especially in this one, DeAndre Hopkins earlier with the Titans, he took full advantage of a young cornerback group. And Baker Mayfield is plenty smart. Mike Evans is plenty smart, still has plenty in the tank.

Starting point is 00:15:11 I'm really concerned about that matchup. I do like what the Colts young corners have done at points this season. But this is a tall task that they're going to be given. And Rashad White, like you mentioned, I'm kind of looking at like a Travis Etienne from earlier in the season with the Jaguars. The Colts have had problems with him. And I kind of look at White as a similar type of player, you know, able to do a lot in the passing and run game. I know the Buccaneers ranked, I think their last in rushing, but the Colts without Grover Stewart so far, not been great. They've been very vulnerable. They have given up over 150 yards on the ground since Grover Stewart has been out.

Starting point is 00:15:55 If you extrapolate it over the whole season, they would rank 31st of 32nd in run defense. So kind of worried about the Buccaneers thinking they might be able to take advantage of that. Maybe that sets up play action. And that's when a Mike Evans really can kill you. So I'm pretty concerned about that. But in general, I want to see the Colts run game get going. Defenses just know that they can kind of try and shut down the run and make Gardner Minshew beat them. I'm interested to see how the Buccaneers play this because they've been pretty poor against the pass, obviously, which is maybe something Garner can bust out of his slump. Or maybe it's something where the Buccaneers can take advantage of it. I'm really looking at something like Quentin Nelson versus Vita Vea in this one.

Starting point is 00:16:36 I think that's going to be a football nerd's dream watching that matchup. There's plenty of really interesting things to look at here. I can kind of see it going either way. Like while it could be a shootout on both sides, I could see one team just totally breaking ahead. And these matchups that we've been talking about is the perfect reason why. Yeah. You take a look at, at Vita Vey versus Quentin Nelson, and you're right. I mean, that's going to be an absolute blast to watch. And, you know, it was that matchup two years ago. Vitavia lost a freaking tooth during the game,

Starting point is 00:17:15 and that became like the Buccaneers social media profile picture, much like this year where Vitavia had his helmet turned all the way sideways and he still managed to make the sack. That was his different. He is. He's so much fun. But yeah, the toothless smile. And I mean, he was kept off the stat sheet by and large in that game.

Starting point is 00:17:36 He didn't register a sack. He only had one tackle. But the impact that Vita Veya has and the responsibility of Nelson to try to contain Veya is going to open things up for guys like Antoine Winfield Jr., who has been an all-pro safety this year. I've said on every crossover that I've done that I will argue to the death that Antoine Winfield Jr. is the best safety in the National Football League this year. And he's not going to get the all-pro recognition that he deserves, but he's come in on blitzes. You've had Devin White and Levante David come in on blitzes. If Levante David doesn't play, you're looking at Servasi A. Dennis stepping in, and for those that are saying, who is Servasi A. Dennis? This guy,

Starting point is 00:18:22 while I sat down to watch Kalijah Cansey see, uh, you know, film after the draft, it was Servasi a Dennis that kept popping off the screen. This guy is a playmaker. He is a raw athletic freak that isn't, he's not quite ready for the role that he's about to be thrusted, but you can see kind of why the Buccaneers drafted him where they did because of his athletic ability so you know that's that's what Vita Vea does he doesn't show up on the stat sheet but he opens up opportunities for players around him Kalijah Cansey has taken full advantage Yaya Diaby uh over the last couple weeks has taken full advantage so that's kind of the balancing act here for the Indianapolis Colts it's like well we need to shut down v to vea but now they have all these other guys that

Starting point is 00:19:09 are going to take advantage of the extra attention that vea requires yeah for for just to look at how much the colts are well aware of what the buccaneers can do against the run and you know how much they respect they in that front seven in that one matchup i think they passed the ball 26 consecutive times it was a whole huge storyline throughout the game but they were not running after they established early in the game that it wasn't going to happen they totally avoided it uh hopefully that's for the colts perspective that's not how it is this next time they gotta at least try a little bit more but but we'll see. Guys, coming up next, who's going to win this one? All right, James, I'll put you on the spot first. So again, I think we're both expecting more from this game from an entertainment

Starting point is 00:19:57 perspective. We both have the benefit of being there to catch this one live. What are you expecting? How do you think this one's going to play out? I think what we're going to have to see from a Buccaneer side is their ability to take advantage of opportunities that they're given and not force the issue. And you go back to the game last week where they lost to the 49ers. They passed up opportunities to continue and extend drives on third down, looking for that home run hit and didn't connect on any of them outside of one that went to Rakeem Jarrett late in the game. Rakeem Jarrett now placed on injured reserve. He will not be participating in this game.

Starting point is 00:20:39 But to me, slow and steady wins the race in this one. The Buccaneers have put together multiple 15-plus play drives this season, and that's the way they need to focus on attacking this entire game. Long, sustained drives that end in points, control the clock, and keep their bruised and battered defense on the sidelines to rest as much as possible. Three and outs, quick scores, a high-scoring shootout, that plays into the hands of the Colts.

Starting point is 00:21:09 There's no doubt about it because this defense and key players on this defense are so beaten up and so hurt and still going out there and playing. The longer they're out there, the more difficult it's going to be for guys like Devin Wyatt or Carlton Davis or Ryan Neal, who I think is going to return this week. It's going to be harder for them to keep the Colts out of the end zone the more often they're on the field. So they're already playing hurt. That's going to wear on them the longer this game goes. So if the Bucs want to win this one, I know we've talked about how it can be a high-scoring shootout. If it gets to that point, the Colts are going to win because the defense is just not going to be able to come up

Starting point is 00:21:51 with the late-game stop that they need to put this one away. Yeah, I think a lot of the things that you have mentioned kind of makes me feel a little better about this one. I do think the Colts win this one. I'm going to say like 30 to 24 is kind of what I'm looking at. I do think the Colts coming off the bye week, basically them coming off their bye week and still having relatively okay health versus how banged up the bucks are makes me really puts me in that

Starting point is 00:22:22 camp of the Colts could, could win this one and put up 30. But yeah, there's just some really critical players who even if they're not going to be out for the Buccaneers, they're really hurting. And for the Colts, I mean, their health has gotten better. And I think given given their bye week is now, they've been kind of in a whirlwind for the longest time. They had to quickly adjust to life without Anthony Richardson. And that's two vastly different offenses that they've had to put together. I mean, you're not running the same offense with Richardson that you are with Minshew. And granted, it's been several weeks to this point.

Starting point is 00:23:00 But they finally have been able to sit down, self-scout, and say what works best with Gardner because the passing game for a good chunk of this has just been downright ugly. He's had some good performances, but I think now they have gotten an opportunity to implement what perhaps works best for him, what he likes to do, and maybe figure out this run game, even when defenses are fully keying in on Taylor and Zach Moss. We've seen before that things have been figured out in the run game, even with loaded boxes.

Starting point is 00:23:35 I'm just really interested to see what they do, but I'm going to put my money on them, just mostly based on being a little healthier and having the benefit of coming off of their bye week. Yeah, when you take a look at the Colts record versus the talent on the team, I mean, there are so many players on this team that I absolutely love. But, you know, we've talked about it. The Bucs secondary is beat up with Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean. I think you're looking at a hampered Carlton Davis and a Zion McCollum starting at corner.

Starting point is 00:24:08 So now Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are going to have plenty of opportunity. Alec Pierce has started to come on over the last couple of weeks. It seemed like he was the forgotten man in Indianapolis there to start the season, but that's a guy that he's that down and dirty. He's going to make the tough over the middle catch keep the sticks uh you know moving and and keep the ball in indianapolis's possession and you know he's a uc guy so of course i i love him um and and then of course jonathan

Starting point is 00:24:37 taylor and and zach moss so you take a look at at kind of how talented this team is and how great it's going to be for Colts fans once Anthony Richardson is back and is actually healthy like this. I mentioned it with Cody of Locked On Texans. The Colts-Texans rivalry that could be over the course of the next decade is going to be incredible to watch from the outside i'm so glad i'm not caught in the middle of it because that would be stressful but you know i i just i really like this colts team a lot that said i'm gonna throw out some really strange

Starting point is 00:25:20 um i i won't say statistics some really really strange tidbits for your listeners that as a member of the media, when I am in attendance of a Buccaneers game, they have not won. However, when I attend a Buccaneers Colts game the Sunday after Thanksgiving, the Buccaneers are 1-0. So something's got to give here. You said you're taking the Colts 30-24. I see this as a little bit lower scoring.

Starting point is 00:25:59 And to me, it's going to come down to the kickers. Whoever has the ball last and gets a kicker on the field is going to win this game and i'm going to take the buccaneers 24 to 23 in another heartbreaker for the colts after you know the last time they played there and you had the leonard fournette four touchdown game and uh you know late turnovers and uh because what would carson wentz ended up with four four turnovers in that one uh with the amount he was passing i do think so i remember at least a couple picks i know winfield had one deep downfield yeah that was a huge one. So, yeah, I think off the leg of Chase McLaughlin, the Bucs steal one in Indianapolis.

Starting point is 00:26:51 Revenge game for McLaughlin, too. And then Matt Gay, this is recycled Colts-Bucs kickers here, McLaughlin and Matt Gay. Oh, no. He's been a gem for the Colts this year. I forgot Matt Gay was there. Oh, God, the Bucks will lose 26 to 24.

Starting point is 00:27:08 Oh, okay. You're flipping it. Yeah. Cause it's, it's not Rodrigo Blankenship anymore. I'll keep it 24, 23,

Starting point is 00:27:14 but the amount of last second field goals that Matt Gay has kicked against the Buccaneers since they cut him has been devastating. Okay. That man, it's like he elevates to an entirely new level any time he faces Tampa Bay because of the animosity and just the sheer frustration of being let go from that team. Oh, my goodness. Oh, this game's going to be a blast.

Starting point is 00:27:47 It got him the biggest free agent kicker contract in history from the Colts, who you would not expect that from. I cut him from my fantasy team, and the next week he scored like 30 points. And I'm like, of course. He did it again. He did it again. He's got a picture of you with a Buccaneers logo slapped in his locker. I'll go check this week and see if it's there,

Starting point is 00:28:09 but not a vendetta against you guys. And you know what? I'll, I'll track him down after the game and I will personally apologize to him. I'm looking forward to that one for sure. Yeah. So this is going to be a good one. Stick with James and I throughout the week and on game day, we'll both be there covering it for everybody live after.

Starting point is 00:28:28 We've got wall-to-wall coverage of this matchup coming up for you guys. If you don't already follow at Locked on Colts and at Locked on Bucks on Twitter and subscribe on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Of course, leave your ratings and reviews as well. That's how we get more eyes and ears on these shows. And with that, we will see you guys on Friday.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts' Gardner Minshew Set to Shine vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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