Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts' Gardner Minshew Struggles in Loss, Playoff Hopes Gone for 2023?

Starting point is 00:00:00 If the Colts truly are without their star quarterback for the rest of the season, then Sunday showed us what hurdles they're going to have to overcome for the final 12 weeks. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right. What's up, everyone? Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day.

Starting point is 00:00:50 This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's show is brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. What's up, beautiful people? This is Jake Arthur and that is Zach Hicks. You know the two of us from horseshoehuddle.com. And today we're going to take you through the final wrap-up of the Colts 37-20 loss to the Jaguars. I'm sure we would all love to throw that one in the trash. But then we'll also look at what are the biggest issues facing this team after kind of another eye-opening performance like Sunday. And then, you know, for a lot of people, talking playoffs was premature, but the Colts were in the mix, even in the early season. Is that realistic now?

Starting point is 00:01:37 How does their playoff picture really shape out over these next 11 games, 12 weeks? So we'll go through all that with you. But Zach, first, hello. Sorry, that is what you had to see when you watched the game. We've discussed it, but what really stuck out to you about that game? Yeah, you know, I don't think the Indianapolis Colts as a team played particularly terrible in this game. I mean, I know the score looks really bad. 37 points allowed is not a good thing. Obviously, anytime you see that. But I think when you look at this, I think the game plan on offense

Starting point is 00:02:11 wasn't too bad. I mean, they tried to counter the Jaguars stack in the box by throwing the ball a little bit more, which there were some open receivers. There were some shots down the field. There were some opportunities to create after the catch and I think on defense the Colts defense played fairly well all things considered I mean they could have tightened it up a little bit more in the red zone which was an issue in the first matchup with the Jaguars but they held Trevor Lawrence to probably his worst game of the entire season and for the most part contained Calvin Ridley as well so I think there were a lot of things on paper that you could have said, hey, the Colts should have won this game. But ultimately, you can't win when your

Starting point is 00:02:49 quarterback plays like that. And I know in your post game, you kind of went in on Gardner Minshew and a lot of people going in on Gardner Minshew about this. And part of it doesn't seem super fair because this is a backup quarterback. We're talking about a backup quarterback thrust into being the starter going on the road against the top 10 defense and saying okay go win us some games you know hey this team is going to stack the box go out there and win us the game you backup quarterback that the whole league said you're only worth like what two and a half million dollars per year or something so you know it it seems a little unfair but that's just the predicament that we're in right now where the jaguars kind of dared Gardner Minshew to beat them. And as a result, the Colts got blown out.

Starting point is 00:03:29 That's kind of what happened in this one. I'm not saying it's all on him because the Colts offensive line could have played better. There were some mistakes by the Colts pass catchers. Again, the defense could have tightened up a little bit more in the red zone. But I think if you're looking to what really happened in this game, like why the Colts ultimately lost this game, it's the Jaguars dared Gardner Minshew to beat them. And he had one of his worst games as an NFL quarterback. We just didn't see the steady distributor that we've seen in the past. We didn't see a guy who typically takes good care of the ball. I mean, what he has, like, I think he's a three to one touchdown interception ratio in his career, two to one, at least in his career, like typically really solid at just

Starting point is 00:04:08 keeping offenses moving, getting what the offense is, is, you know, designed to get and not making that big mistake. But he made so many mistakes in this one that it was just impossible for the Colts to overcome it. And we can kind of look at, I mean, again, very different situations, but if you look at the Colts versus the Rams early in the season, the Colts to overcome it. And we can kind of look at, I mean, again, very different situations, but if you look at the Colts versus the Rams early in the season, the Colts quarterback play at the beginning of that game was bad too. Richardson was missing a lot of passes. He had the big fumble, which, which hurt them on offense, but he is such a dynamic player and passer that he was able to will his team back into that game and take it, take that game to overtime. Gardner Minshew is not that type of quarterback. He is a game flow dependent quarterback where if the Colts are getting down in the game

Starting point is 00:04:49 early or they're getting uh you know blown out because he's making mistakes early he's not the type of guy who can bring you back in the game he can keep you ahead he's not going to bring you back so once those first couple turnovers happened that really flipped the script of the game the Colts were kind of out of it they didn't really have a chance despite the defense again playing fairly well and the pass catchers playing fairly well uh so yeah I mean I think the final score looks worse than what it is it doesn't really say that the Colts team overall played okay but like you just can't survive a game like that from your quarterback whether he's a backup or not. Yeah, looking at the output of 37 points and a 37 to 20 differential there, it's really surprising because like you said, Trevor Lawrence, it was his worst

Starting point is 00:05:34 game of the year. Calvin Ridley didn't kill them yet, or he didn't kill them like he did in week one. And honestly, aside from like a minute there to start the second quarter, they honestly bottled Travis Etienne the rest of the game as well. He really only averaged three yards per carry in that game. So aside from that, they didn't let those guys gash them. And so I just don't really see some other smoking gun as to like what happened. But I look at it and it's like all these turnovers just giving them the ball away because the defense I thought played well enough, obviously, like I mentioned. So the biggest thing I take away from that is they just kept gifting them the ball.

Starting point is 00:06:14 And two of those were they were well in Jacksonville territory. So they probably would have at least got three on those drives. So I didn't see anything else that really like killed their chances of winning. Yeah. Again, offensive line didn't see anything else that really like killed their chances of winning. Yeah. Again, offensive line didn't play their best game. And we've seen it kind of go throughout the year. Whenever the Colts offensive line has not played well, the Colts offense has not done well at all.

Starting point is 00:06:35 So that kind of goes hand in hand there. But again, at the end of the day, your quarterback's making the mistakes that he was making. Again, these weren't really close plays. These were like very errant throws, like very errant throws just straight to defenders uh and he had a couple other dropped interceptions i mean he should have finished this game with six to seven turnovers like i know that that was kind of the jaguars thing was hey we're gonna make gardener you have the ball in his hand 50 times and odds are that he's not going to make things happen but I don't even think they expected like hey we're gonna have five six seven

Starting point is 00:07:09 opportunities to take away the ball with Gardner Minshew like I thought that I think that their game plan was we're gonna make him eat the ball a lot make the ball be in his hand and that'll limit their explosive plays and keep things to a minimum but instead it became you know he's going to turn the ball over a ton and and maybe the Colts should have forced the issue a little bit more the run game and and kind of just tried to lean into it to take the ball out of Minshew's hand but look at the game plan if players are open players are making some plays ultimately the quarterback needs to get the ball out there and the quarterback needs to make the right decisions and if the ball

Starting point is 00:07:43 is not if the play is not there then he has to eat it and and not have that back breaking turnover so uh yeah it it sucks because again it's a backup quarterback you don't want to just lean into it so much being like hey backup you're not supposed to be playing poorly when you're a backup quarterback but uh i think when you look at the main contributor for this loss it really is the quarterback made a lot of boneheaded decisions and and a lot of hopefully decisions that he's not going to make going forward. And hopefully he can be back to being Gardner Minshew who thrives in game flow and keeps things under control. But like you said, top of the show, this is what they're going to get the rest of the season. They're going to be a top 10 draft pick team because you just can't survive with a quarterback

Starting point is 00:08:24 like Gardner Minshew making big mistakes. You can survive with him when he's just being steady and getting the ball out and leading on the run game, leading on yards after catch. But if he's making gigantic mistakes like this, like back to back to back, like he was in this game, you just can't survive unless you have like a top tier team around him. Now to shift the vibes a little bit bit was there anything like positive you took away from this one because it was oddly explosive they had three uh three passing plays of at least 40

Starting point is 00:08:50 yards. Yeah I think the I think the overall game plan was pretty good I mean again it's very similar to that second matchup with the Jaguars last year where the Colts barely ran the ball and they leaned on Matt Ryan to like the quick passing game to be the rushing attack in that second game it's just Matt Ryan didn't make the mistakes that Gardner Minshew made and I'm not saying Gardner Minshew's worse than Ryan was last year by any means but like I thought the game plan was solid I think guys were open for the most part and again I think the defense played fairly well like I think they they did a lot to win this game it's just again I don't want to keep circling back to it but we i the court you can't survive with your quarterback doing that but i i don't think that the final score of this game says

Starting point is 00:09:31 oh the colts as a team got their just got their butts kicked by jacksville i mean they lost pretty bad but um i do think that the the team game was a little bit closer than say that 21 to nothing beat down last year against the jaguars where it felt like the sky was falling. I don't think the sky is falling from this one, but it is definitely worrisome when your quarterback plays like that. You just got to hope that if your quarterback doesn't play like that again, you can be more competitive with teams going forward. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:09:57 So performance like that obviously has you looking at the team's warts and we'll be taking a look at that here in a minute. What are the biggest issues facing the Colts? And it's not all just Gardner Minshew. But first a word from our sponsors. Today's show is sponsored by BetterHelp. Do you ever feel like your brain is getting in its own way? Like you're trying to desperately get to sleep at night, but your brain just won't shut off. Therapy helps you figure out what's holding you back so you can work for yourself instead of against yourself. I've not personally been to therapy, so don't let me be your mental health beacon.

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Starting point is 00:11:58 channel host to nature, Batiste Jarvis Davis and Kyle crabs will break down every game on the NFL slate to get you ready for this team's matchup, your fantasy lineups, your betting angles, and more. Plus, get the in-depth local analysis from our stable of NFL hosts across the country who know these teams better than anyone else. Find Locked on NFL Kickoff Live every Friday at 2 p.m. Eastern time on any Locked on NFL YouTube channel. All right, Jake, so we're getting into the biggest issues with this Colts

Starting point is 00:12:26 team. And I think this is a good time to look at it because we're not quite at the halfway mark, but it feels like we're at a really big part of the season for the Indianapolis Colts where they're entering a pretty tough two game stretch coming up. Probably their toughest two game stretch remaining of the season with these big games against the Cleveland Browns and with the New Orleans Saints. And after that, they do enter kind of a little bit of a lull. You know, they have two teams after that. I think the next two teams after that are the Panthers and the Patriots, who are two of the worst teams in the entire league right now. Not doing well. Right, right. So you're going to learn

Starting point is 00:13:00 a lot about this team these next four weeks. You know, are they going to be a team that's sitting at five and five still? Can they steal one against the Saints and the Browns? Can they, you know, go that way, go that direction and maybe get their way into a wildcard conversation? Or do they just keep tumbling after this poor game and fall to, you know, the bottom feeder type thing that we thought they could be before the season? But looking at this team at the macro level, Jake, what are some issues that you're looking at with this team going forward and some concerns you have when it comes to just the rest of the season

Starting point is 00:13:32 projection for the Colts? Yeah, I know this section of the offense is kind of a victim of circumstance, but their inability to expand on the passing game very much and not have much of a vertical threat, I think, is a pretty big issue. And that just kind of is what it is right now. With Anthony on IR, they're with a quarterback who defenses are just not scared of. They're going to load up to stop those running backs. And, I mean, shoot, Alec Pierce has had a couple nice plays.

Starting point is 00:14:05 You know, the Titans have been able has had a couple of nice plays. You know, the Titans have been able to do some things up the seam, but right now I just don't think there's enough of the vertical element in the offense. And that's something they're going to keep working on. Like they're never going to stop trying to make that happen. But I definitely think that is something that makes the offense more beatable against these opposing defenses. Yeah. Yeah. And again, it's another thing that's kind of frustrating with the offense where I don't think that the scheme is the issue with the vertical element. Because you could go back to each of these weeks and say, okay, here are the couple scheme shot plays.

Starting point is 00:14:39 And honestly, a good chunk of them are open. The quarterback just needs to get the ball down the field. And this is not just a Gardner Minshew thing this was an Anthony Richardson thing the first couple weeks as well where he just wasn't pulling the trigger on some of these downfield throws now you get Gardner Minshew who just doesn't look down the field it's just not in his DNA unless he's throwing it to quadruple coverage apparently but besides that he's not really looking down the field so I do think that vertical element is going to be kind of missing for a good chunk of the season.

Starting point is 00:15:06 It might have to be a situation where Steichen says, look, if we're going to get this three-by-one look, you've got to throw the jump ball to the outside. We've got to have that vertical element. I do think there were some positive signs in the second half of this past game where there were a good two, three plays where receivers were wide open behind players in the secondary and with a better ball that's a touchdown the kylan granson catch should have been a touchdown

Starting point is 00:15:29 uh the michael pitman jr deep ball should have been a touchdown with a slightly better ball as well uh so i do think there are some some good signs with the deep passing game but yeah you're right it's not there yet it's not to the level where you want it to be and it does hurt going from an anthony richardson who can rip the ball down the field to a Gardner Minshew type who can't really can't and really won't as well down the field you know yeah we've seen that before and that's that could make for a long season but I mean coaching wise again I'm confident they'll do something schematically to overcome that. Like, I don't know what it is, but like, I, I can't imagine a Shane Steichen offense is just going to be so

Starting point is 00:16:11 boxed in, you know, for, for the remainder of the offense or a remainder of the season. Is there anything like defensively that you have big issues with so far? Yeah, I think, I think one concern that's kind of come up the last couple weeks is, you know, the first couple weeks of the season, we were like, hey, you know what, the secondary is not playing well, but we kind of expected that because they're young and they're getting used to it. But this front seven is going to carry them.

Starting point is 00:16:34 This front seven is going to carry them home. This front seven is playing at a top-tier level. And that really high play is what's going to propel this team to having a solid defense. And we've kind of seen the the front seven play fall off a little bit in recent weeks you know quitty pay has not been as effective as he was early in the season the last few weeks uh samson abukam has been or abukam has been playing really well but he's kind of the biggest producer there they're not really seeing

Starting point is 00:16:59 enough from other guys up front in the pass rush uh the linebacker play i think is tappered off just a little bit. Zyra Franklin's playing really well, but EJ Speed's impact has been a little bit less, and Shaquille Leonard's just not really doing enough in his snaps out there. So you're not seeing this front seven play at this high, high level, and as a result, the secondary is getting exposed a little bit more.

Starting point is 00:17:21 You know, I think Juju Brents has been a really solid addition for the team. There's been some hit and miss with his play but for the most part i think it's been really solid from him but you're not getting enough from the court from the um from the second outside corner jalen jones is you know doing is doing what he can but he is what he is and then at safety you're just not getting anything really from safety this season. So something needs to change there. Like your safety play needs to get better and your secondary play needs to get better or your front seven needs to get back to the way they were playing

Starting point is 00:17:52 in the first couple weeks because if they're going to continue the trend that they're going right now with both of those things, they're just not going to be a top half of the league defense. And you kind of need that if Gardner Minchu is your starting quarterback you know you can't really survive Gardner Minshew being your starter with a bottom half of the league defense yeah that's exactly right I mean we've seen that before like it's the difference between bringing a team to the playoffs and just like totally being irrelevant is if there's a complementary defense for that quarterback uh but I'm But with the safeties, I haven't studied them particularly,

Starting point is 00:18:28 but I know Julian Blackman has done some nice things, but I can't recall pointing out Rodney Thomas really in my mind and making mental notes throughout a game almost at all this season. And I mean, one of his big things last year was it seemed like he was always around the ball downfield um you know he led the team in interceptions with four like I just I can't tell that he's making like a huge impact out there I don't know if they need to just keep increasing Nick Cross's snaps or what they need to do because I don't want to be unfair about it like it's also you would rather not hear his name because he's getting bombed on all the time either.

Starting point is 00:19:09 But it's, it's definitely odd considering you knew the second year was going to be really young and like the cornerback group was totally turned over, but at least you had these experienced safeties you could be confident in. Yeah. And, but they're just not playing at the level you expected. Their, their eye discipline's not great they're not reading routes super well they're playing a little too conservative like ronnie thomas had the issue last year where he would sit a little too deep too often

Starting point is 00:19:32 and allow things over the middle way too often and now we're kind of seeing that even more this year and it's like you want to see that second year step forward but it's kind of been a step backwards or just kind of the same step to the side so you just want to see more growth from the safeties and it's a little concerning that of all the defenders that played 100 of their team snaps this year the colts have two of them both of their safeties when neither of them are really playing that well so it's like maybe get nick cross out there a little bit more maybe do some different things but we'll see we'll see what happens going forward obviously something's to have to break here. Either they're going to take that step forward or the Colts defense is going to have the

Starting point is 00:20:08 bottom fall out of them. So we'll see the rest of the year. But coming up, guys, we're going to talk about the Colts chances at making the playoffs. Obviously, their chances to win the division really took a big hit this past weekend. But do they still have a shot at the playoffs going forward? We're going to discuss that all coming up in a second. Buying tickets to your favorite events shouldn't be stressful. Game time is the fast and easy way to buy tickets for all the sport, music, comedy, and theater near you. With killer deals on last minute tickets and their best price guarantee, you can stop stressing over the tickets and start

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Starting point is 00:21:44 Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed all right jake so we're getting into the playoff conversation obviously it's so so early in the season to talk playoff because look last year at this point the colts were three two and one and some people were still feeling pretty optimistic i was i was tuned out after the blank in jacksonville last year but but some people were so optimistic that, Hey, this could have been a playoff team last year. Then we saw the bottom just completely drop out of that Colts team last season. Now what kind of favors them a little bit this year is they have presumably they're going to have the same coach the whole year. They're not going to have an ESPN analyst come in and coach them halfway through the year which is a big plus and they have a fairly favorable schedule I mean Cleveland and New Orleans coming up are pretty tough like that's that's a tough set of defenses that you're playing

Starting point is 00:22:34 there then you get some competitive games there with Tampa Tennessee and Cincinnati but then you get Carolina New England you know again Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Vegas, Houston. These are all very, very winnable games. It just depends what Colts team we're getting. Are we going to get the Colts team that could beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road? Are we getting the Colts team that finally got over the hump and beat the Tennessee Titans? Or are we going to get the Colts team that got their butts kicked in the first half against the Rams?

Starting point is 00:23:04 Or the Colts team that just could not do anything against Jacksonville in their two matchups against them? Which Colts team are we getting? But I do know that if you're looking at playoff percentage odds and stuff, the Colts percentage dropped quite a bit with this past loss. I think according to Pro Football Focus's metric, they lost like 20% off their odds to make the playoffs with this past loss because again it's early it's not over yet but they are in the back seat now when it comes to winning the division uh they're kind of not out of that race but they're really

Starting point is 00:23:35 behind uh behind in that race right now uh but jake what do you think you know do you think the colts can make the playoffs do you think gardner menchu can lead this team into the promised land this season uh so i thought sunday was to be a big statement game in terms of their chances of winning the division. I thought that was probably going to be one they were going to need to have if they were going to ultimately win the South. With that said, I'm not going to totally rule out them winning the South, but it seems pretty unlikely. Now, that means they're going to have to turn their hopes to a wild card berth.

Starting point is 00:24:07 And because of that schedule, it's not a gauntlet. It's not terrible. There's no big, scary games. I mean, Cincinnati could be absolutely rolling by that point. But let's say Anthony does come back later in the season you finish off with Atlanta Las Vegas and Houston in your final three games that's kind of doable that's a nice final three game push um but ultimately like I think this team is just going to be the type that they're gonna probably beat the teams that they're favored to beat and then fall short in

Starting point is 00:24:46 the rest of them. Yeah. Which is ultimately going to land them around 500, you know, whether that's nine and eight or eight and nine, whatever. I don't know. However, that's going to look in the AFC playoff picture. Ultimately it feels like that might have them falling short, but I'm not going to totally rule them out. Like if they can find a way to work around their issues in the passing game and become more balanced, then I think they can do it. Because I think their defense is fine enough. This team is just altogether fine enough. I didn't even think they would be a playoff team coming into it.

Starting point is 00:25:22 But looking at the schedule, i can't rule it out like i think they're a competitive decent team yeah they're a well-coached young energetic fiery team that can beat anybody but they're going to be limited because of who they have at quarterback now and some other limitations when it comes to just the roster construction and overall weaknesses but they are a team that can beat everyone left on their schedule I mean Jacksonville was the biggest test left I mean again it depends on what team that Cincinnati is in the later half of the season if they're playing like they were against the Cardinals a couple weeks ago then obviously you're not winning that game but Cincinnati's kind of been a mess but outside of that these

Starting point is 00:26:02 are all winnable games the Colts can be. They're just so game flow dependent now, you know, it really comes down to what type of game the Colts are in for them to have a chance at any of these, you know, like even Cleveland this next week, you know, Cleveland has the best defense in football or a top two defense in football, wherever, wherever you want to say with that. If the Colts just keep this like a three to nothing game or a six to three game or something going to the fourth though, like a really tight game and they play that slugfest

Starting point is 00:26:29 that you need they can easily beat Cleveland they could do that against the against the quarterback which yeah yeah they can do that against the Saints as well and Carolina New England they should be able to beat with just Gardner Minshew because those two teams are in really bad places right now but you, you know, you're so limited with your quarterback right now because this is a backup caliber quarterback who limits the type of offense that you can run. So if you get into games where you're down seven, nothing early, you're down 10, nothing early. You're probably not going to win those games because you just don't have the firepower on offense. You don't have the high level skill position players

Starting point is 00:27:03 to kind of make up for Gardner Minshew being your quarterback. So I do think, like you said, I think they can get to 10 wins if everything goes right and they stay ahead of game flow and they keep everything manageable. But I think realistically, you're probably looking at like seven to eight wins on the year, which again, before the season, if you told me Richardson was going to play two games or two and a half games, maybe, or whatever it ends up being five games this year, and the season, if you told me Richardson was going to play two games or two and a half games maybe, or whatever it ends up being, five games this year, and the Colts were going to win seven

Starting point is 00:27:29 in Shane Steichen's debut season after coming off a four-win season, I'd say, you know what? I'll take it. I don't want Richardson being hurt, but I'll take it. So you got to just live with these things in perspective. I'm not counting the Colts out completely for the rest of the year,

Starting point is 00:27:42 but I do think a seven-8-9 win season is still a step in the right direction considering what lows they were coming from last year. But obviously you are disappointed because we were riding such a high into that Jacksonville Jaguars game this week. Coming off of that, you know, finally beating the Titans and really dominating the Titans for most of that game, finally getting over that hump and then just crashing down against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville, couldn't beat that one. And obviously not having your quarterback for that game.

Starting point is 00:28:11 It does kind of take a little bit of a blow there, but I do think that the rest of the schedule is manageable. They're well-coached team. They can win these games. It's just what kind of Gardner Minshew are you getting? Are you getting the game controlling type of Gardner Minshew? Are you getting the brain dead Minshew that we got this past weekend? You know, like what kind of Minshew are you getting?

Starting point is 00:28:30 That's going to determine what the Colts do the rest of the season. Yeah, that'll be big. Because again, taking care of the ball, like never was that more evident of how critical it is than on Sunday. Because again, I don't know if they would have won, but without all four of those turnovers, that game does not look at all like it does in the final score. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:28:51 But my final thought on the playoff thing, I'm looking at two sections here consecutively. So if they can win either one of the Cleveland or New Orleans games, I think that would be good. By no means do they need to sweep that. But then Carolina, New England, and Tampa. Now, New England is in Germany, so, like, the Colts have historically not done well

Starting point is 00:29:15 in those overseas games, but they need to come out of that three-game stretch with two wins. Doesn't matter which of the opponents it's against, but Carolina, New england and tampa if they come out of that one and two and oh and three like that's going to be a critical hit on the playoff chances they need to be at least at least six and four going into tennessee um to have a chance at the playoff so they're not at six and four at that point like they're five and five or

Starting point is 00:29:42 four and six yeah you're probably not making the playoffs that way you got to at least be six and four at that point, like they're five and five or four and six. Yeah. You're probably not making the playoffs. You got to at least be six and four going in Tennessee, which they very well can. It's just. Again, what kind of Gardner Minshew we getting the rest of the season and can the rest of this team propel him forward to victory guys? We're going to be continuing this conversation all week here on lockdown

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