Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts Gear Up for Biggest Game in a Couple Years vs. Houston Texans

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is it. Win and the Colts are in. Standing in their way is rookie of the year, C.J. Stroud and the Texans, though. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right, all right. Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering both the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans today on this Crossover Thursday.

Starting point is 00:00:46 We are part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's Crossover Thursday episode is brought to you by PrizePix, the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Just go to prizepix.com slash locked on NFL and use code all lowercase locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. What's up, everybody, and welcome to the show. I'm Jake Arthur from Locked on Colts, joined today by John Hickman of Locked on Texans. Today, we're going to be taking you through the journey that is going to be this week 18 matchup of the Colts and Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium this Saturday night. We're

Starting point is 00:01:26 going to walk you through the biggest storylines for each team, what are the biggest matchups, the big X factors, who's going to make the difference between winning and losing, and then ultimately who we think is going to win. Now, this is not just every game, John. At the end of this, one of us is going to go on to keep talking about football the next week, or at least for our current game, and the other's not. It's win or go home. The playoffs technically start in two weeks, but for the Colts and Texans, it's this week, man. And then- Yeah, absolutely. I'd say it's been the last three weeks, honestly. Oh, absolutely. Because it relates to the seed, yeah.

Starting point is 00:02:02 Yeah, everyone needs to win because right now you lose, you're done. Either team could also win the AFC South. So I don't know about you, man, but I am ready for Saturday. I'm super excited. First, has the Colts had a primetime game this year? So they had. I can't remember. Yes, the Steelers got flexed into the late slot a couple weeks ago.

Starting point is 00:02:28 They didn't have any originally on the schedule, but they've had one or two national games. So I think, you know, for Houston, this is the first time this year that they're going to have a primetime slot Saturday. The last time we saw C.J. Stroud in a primetime game just so happened to be against Georgia, where he nearly was able to pass that team up. So I'm looking at a big game from C.J. Stroud, who was coming back. This will be his second game after missing two due to that concussion. But the battle of the playoffs, man, I think the storyline right now is much more than who's going to win.

Starting point is 00:03:06 I think you're looking at two teams with two potential coach of the year candidates. And by no means do I want to not give credit where credit is due. When I look at the job, Shane Steichen has done over in Indy, right? He initially started the year off when Anthony Richardson, he goes down. Ironically, the last time the Houston Texans took on the Colts, and I think Gardner Minshew has stepped in and played well for you guys. I think due to how easy the offense has been called from the sidelines, how easy Shane Stockton has made his quarterback's job easier,

Starting point is 00:03:39 I give a lot of credit to that. Michael Pittman, a 1,000-yard receiver. The shuffle between whether or not Jonathan Taylor will be returning, will he get traded? Zach Moss, who started the year off, just whooping ass, excuse me, for you guys, right? Quitty Pay coming along. Make no mistake about it, Texans fans. And I'm kind of gushing over the coast a little bit, so excuse me, but this is a well put together team. Are they firing off all cylinders?

Starting point is 00:04:06 Are they at their max potential? No, but I don't think the Texans are either. I also think this is a different Texan team than the last time they took on the Indianapolis Colts. I think that you're looking at a front seven, a front four who's creating pressure and actually getting sacks now. You're looking at a linebacker core that has played much better than when they did against the Indianapolis Coast.

Starting point is 00:04:30 You're looking at a team with a healthy Derek Stingley who got snug for Pro Bowl. So I think you're looking at a different team defensively. They still have some mishaps. We saw what they did or what the Jets did to them a couple of weeks ago. We saw what the Cleveland Browns did with Joe Flacco. But this is a different team. I think they're much tougher. I think they're, you know, more battle-tested than what they were in week two.

Starting point is 00:04:51 And ultimately, I think it does come down for – comes down to how the coaching staff is going to help the opposing – sorry, the offensive side or the defensive side of the ball. How are those OCs at D.C., D'Amico Ryan, Bobby Sloan, how will they put their players in the best position to win? Yeah, and I'm glad you mentioned that. I just did the whole Wednesday episode based on the Colts weren't supposed to be here. You know, when the season started, you never would have thought they were 9-7

Starting point is 00:05:22 with the potential to be in a play-in game at the very last week and potentially be in the playoffs. And you could say the exact same thing for the Texans. I mean, last year when these two teams played in week 18 in Indy, nothing was on the line except for, you know, who's going to get, you know, better spot in the top five of the draft. I mean, it was a stink fest. And you look at this thing now, these are two really well-constructed teams on the rise. I feel like we got robbed from having, you know, an Anthony Richardson versus CJ Stroud chapter of this. Man.

Starting point is 00:05:56 Because, I mean, Anthony went out after the first quarter in week two. So we just barely saw that. But, you know, you mentioned it's different teams. I'm totally throwing out week two from this. It was a comfortable Colts win. But both teams are so much different now, right? That it's the Colts might as well have been playing the Seahawks or something. You know what I mean? I don't think they're going to get to CJ Stroud six times again. The run game is different. Zach Moss has been not as productive and he's been hurt for

Starting point is 00:06:27 a couple of weeks. Meanwhile, now Jonathan Taylor is back. He wasn't there before. You mentioned Derek Stingley. I don't think he played in the first one. So this is, it just got, has a totally different feel to me. And while it's not Anthony Richardson versus CJ Stroud, I do think this is only, this is just the next chapter in what should be a really fun rivalry for years to come. Because I don't know, I don't know how the Texan side feels around here. The Colts fans do not like the Titans or Jaguars and their fans. I feel like the Texans part of it is more of a fun rivalry. It's not nasty. I mean, it's fun to see these two teams go against each other and they're on similar trajectories right now, both really impressive from where we thought they would be when you

Starting point is 00:07:17 look at it in September. You know why I think it's like that? Well, when you look at the two other teams in the division for Houston, right? You look at the Jag two other teams in the division for houston right you look at the jacks well the the texans have historically owned the jacks right they've you know i think it was a period of games where out of the 10 games the texans won maybe eight or nine or something like that it couldn't beat them right and so you you get a lot of jacks fans that you know may come around and may say well if we if we would have, whatever. But the facts remain, you guys have a bad record against Houston Texans. Tennessee Titans go back to the Oilers days and that rivalry.

Starting point is 00:07:53 And that was a fun thing on social media between the two franchises for Titans Twitter and Texans Twitter. But I think historically, I think for the Coats, Houston hasn't been able to catch up to them. So you go back to when the franchise first came about, or back around in 2001, Peyton Manning was running the division for however long. And Houston had a couple of seasons where they made it competitive, but then you had Andrew Luck step in. And then we know how T.Y. Hilton has owned the Texans in the NRG Stadium.

Starting point is 00:08:27 He had career games every time he stepped on that field. So I think it's a respect factor there for Houston as a franchise defense. You necessarily can't attack the Colts because, well, first of all, you're thankful to the Colts because if the Colts, if Kenny Moore doesn't try to attempt the interception and he just knocks it down, then that catch in the end zone last year, then they go for two, right? That, you know, you don't get C.J. Stroud, right? So you're kind of thankful for the Colts,

Starting point is 00:08:57 and I think it would be fun if this game ended in a tie. But I think for Houston, it's just a respect factor there for the franchise. Maybe not necessarily for the franchise owner, but the father, what they've been able to build, you know, paid manager. And all those years were paid managers kind of, you know, Texas. But they haven't been able to say we have five wins in a row against you guys. Those moments like that. I do want to ask you before we move on. Numbers can be very tricky. Numbers can be deceiving.

Starting point is 00:09:33 And a number that I saw, you know, you guys are at the bottom of the league and stopping the run. Is that a number that is misleading or are the facts the facts? I haven't been able to catch all of the Coast games. I don't know the first time Houston played you guys, it was bad. But, again, different team. Devin Singletary is now the Coast games. Right on the first time Houston played, you guys, it was bad. But, again, different team. Devin Singletary is now the lead back. It's no longer Damian Pierce.

Starting point is 00:09:51 Different dynamic there. But are you guys actually still giving up 127 on the ground, or is that a byproduct of maybe some early season struggles outside of the Houston Texans? Yes, that number is a bit misleading. So, Grover Stewart was suspended for six games in the middle of the season. And before he got suspended, the run defense wasn't terrific. They were giving up about 110 per game on the ground with him there. And then he gets suspended. And then suddenly they're giving up over 150 yards per game on the ground. But since he's been back since like week 14,

Starting point is 00:10:27 I think it was, they've gotten things under control again. So it's, I think you said 127 now. It's a lot closer in reality to that 110 range. With Stewart out there alongside DeForest Buckner. It's a lot better. But what is still happening is when he leaves the field and it's like Taven Bryan, for example, stepping in at nose tackle, that's when teams know to attack. So while overall the Colts are better against the run, there's definitely times

Starting point is 00:11:00 when you could take advantage of them still. And that's when Stewart and or Buckner leave the field. So while you're not necessarily scared of Houston's ground game, Singletary can do some things. Pierce can definitely do some things. They may not have 150, 160 yards on the ground, but there will be times where they get their chunk runs. I think Houston will have a couple nice plays on the ground here or there. Oh, thank you. Want want to clear that up.

Starting point is 00:11:28 Yep, absolutely. So next we're going to tell you guys what are the biggest matchups to watch in this game? Who are the most important players to watch? But first, this show is sponsored by BetterHelp. What are some things that you want to keep the same about your life in 2024? Where are you already crushing it at? Think opposite of new year, new me, because you're already awesome. What do you need to build on? Around New Year's, we get obsessed with how to change ourselves instead of just expanding on what we're already doing right. Maybe you finally organized one part of your space and you want to tackle another. Maybe you're making taking your supplements every morning. You're not just throwing them by the wayside or forgetting them on your way out the door.

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Starting point is 00:13:11 Locked On Sports Today is here for you 24-7, covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Locked On, plus our national shows that cover every league. Go to Locked On Sports Today on YouTube and subscribe to the first ever National Sports 24-7 streaming channel. If you hang here after this, it's actually going to take you right there as well. All right, John. So some important matchups in this one. Again, we discussed throwing the week two matchup

Starting point is 00:13:39 out the window. Again, comfortable Colts win. I really think either team could win in this one. Is there anything you've got like circled in red that says that the Texans really need to watch out for this or the Texans really have an advantage? Can you give me your front four defensive guys? Just throw them out. All right.

Starting point is 00:13:56 So you got Quidipe and Samson Ebukama and DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart on the inside. Two great players, right? Yeah, I think the matchup for me when I look at it, and it's two matchups, of course, but I think the matchup for me, the one that's going to be maybe the most important this game is how can the Texans limit the six sacks that they gave up last time? How can you protect your quarterback who is still coming back from the concussion?

Starting point is 00:14:28 And I look at that defensive line. I don't know how many people nationally, you know, view that defensive line, but I like the defensive line for the Indianapolis Colts. So you got Lambert Tunsil who went out last game. He did not return. George Fann stepped in, who's also battling an injury. Got Charlie Heck on the opposite side of that tackle. He's not the greatest in the world, right?

Starting point is 00:14:50 He's a fill-in type of guy. They are going to have their hands full. You got the rookie, Juice Gruggs, who's going to be going up against maybe Grover Stewart or DeForest Buckner, two great guys, right? So he's going to have his hands full. And he's been coming along nicely the last few weeks, right? He started the season off late because of an injury, due to the injury. But he's going to have his hands full.

Starting point is 00:15:11 I like Shaq Mason because he's a vet. He's been successful for Houston this year. That offensive line is going to be counted upon heavily Sunday to protect their quarterback and to give their running backs an opportunity to get to the next level and maybe bust off a couple of 10-yard runs. And on the flip side, this team, at the end of the game, when the clock strikes zero, this team cannot have zero sacks like they did the first time they met the Indianapolis Colts. You're seeing Will Anderson, who's been hot lately, right? He has multiple two-sax games in the last few weeks.

Starting point is 00:15:47 You got John Bernard, who 12 and a half sacks on a year. He's having a monster year, right? He has to be impactful. Sheldon Rankins and Malik Collins, tear-tart, right? Those guys as a whole, the defensive line, has to create pressure because I think, again, Shane Steichen is going to do a very good job of helping out his quarterback in Gardner Mischu. Is Gardner the most athletic in the world?

Starting point is 00:16:10 No, he's not. I mean, he can maybe extend the play here and there. But if you get after him early and often, beat him up a little bit, I think that sways the favor in Houston's – swing that game in Houston's favor. But I'm also looking at Derrick Singleton and Michael Pittman. I think this is the game where he needs to travel. Wherever Pittman goes, he goes. He will snuff from the Pro Bowl. I think this is going to be a great statement game. Five interceptions on the year, go out with a bang,

Starting point is 00:16:37 and I think that that's a great matchup. If you eliminate Michael Pittman, I'm not necessarily worried about Alec Pierce or Josh Niles, a rookie who I think has been having a good year for you guys, by the way. Yeah, no, that wouldn't, that would be a good idea for them because we saw when, when Pittman was not out there for the Falcons game, for example, Gardner just does not, it's, it's not the same format there. Pittman is his security blanket over a hundred receptions on the season. He is easily the most targeted player in this offense. So that's definitely a good one to watch. For me on the boundary, Juju Brents was not out there yet for the Colts in that week two matchup. He's going to be out there now. He's become their best boundary corner. And they're really going to need him to

Starting point is 00:17:23 step up against Nico Collins who had uh let's see he had 146 yards and a touchdown against the Colts in week two he's having a great year as well 71 receptions for 1100 yards and seven touchdowns so we've seen him be able to pop off Noah Brown has popped off a time or two this year so Juju Brents is going to be really important he's a physical corner he is aggressive when it comes to playing the ball. So I think that'll be big because with how accurate C.J. Stroud is, I think they're really going to need a corner that kind of knocks the receivers off their rhythm and kind of forces them out towards the sideline a little bit.

Starting point is 00:18:02 So that'll be big. But you obviously mentioned the trenches that's that's where i think the blood is in the water again i don't think the colts are going to get to stroud six times again it just seems very unlikely uh but the texans they have 10 offensive linemen this year who have had at least 200 blocking snaps and the only one with even an average pass blocking grade according to pro football focus is Tunsell yeah and he's been banged up you know you know obviously that's been the name of the game for the o-line this year's they've just been really banged up again they have 10 10 guys who

Starting point is 00:18:35 have played 200 snaps I do want to say before I you know and excuse me before I give it back to you numbers can be misleading because George Fant has has played very, very well for Houston this year. And at times, George Fent, and by no means am I calling him the better player, but at times, we know Houston has signed Titus Howard in the offseason. George Fent has looked better than him. George Fent has looked like the best offensive lineman on a field at times. He's had his moments. So I definitely want to just say that numbers can be misleading. George Fant has been balling for Houston.

Starting point is 00:19:14 I just wanted to shout him out. Yeah, I think Fant has been a solid player throughout his career. That's a guy who's always proven to be capable of stepping up and being a starter when needed. So, again, the Colts' pass rush has run hot and cold. Oddly enough, they broke the Indianapolis-era sack record for a single season. They're 49 right now, 49 for the year. I think that's third or fourth in the league right now.

Starting point is 00:19:40 While I don't think they're going to have that huge sack number again, C.J. Stroud has taken 3.4 sacks per game in his last five games. So that shows he's still taking sacks at a decent pace. I know it slowed down a couple times. I think there was one or two games where it was just only one sack. But the Colts have to stop the inconsistent streak because there was a stretch. They had 21 sacks over four games. And then the next game that zero and only have like one or two quarterback fits in that game

Starting point is 00:20:11 for the next game and then one and then two. So in this late season stretch, you really don't know what to expect from that pass rush. And in a matchup where they have the clear advantage, I think they have to take advantage of that. All right. So coming up here, we are going to finish up by making our predictions on this matchup. At the start of the new year, every small business owner is asking themselves the same question. What's the one move I can make that'll take my business to the next level in 2024? LinkedIn Jobs knows that your success all depends on the team that you surround yourself with. That's why LinkedIn Jobs has created the tools to help find the right professionals for your team faster and for free. LinkedIn isn't just another job board. They have

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Starting point is 00:21:39 All right, John. So I don't know what your confidence meter is on this one. I, this is a pick them game for me. It's a toss up. I'll, I'll, I'll't know what your confidence meter is on this one. This is a pick-em game for me. It's a toss-up. I'll roll out the red carpet for you first. Do you have a prediction for this one and why? I don't necessarily have a prediction of who's going to win because I think this is just two good teams,

Starting point is 00:22:01 two good rookie head coaches who have done a very good job of weathering the storm this year. I'm going to pick Houston, but the reason why I pick Houston would be the same reason why I could see Indy winning. And I think you got to control the time of possession, but you got to control the win up front on both sides, and you got to give your quarterback time to operate in the pocket, and your quarterback has to be smart with the decision. Got to get the ball out quickly. This is a team for Houston that they can't afford to have a good half

Starting point is 00:22:43 and not finish the game off without four quarters. I'm going to give a number, and I'm going to say 27-24. I think that with everything going online, defense is going to make some plays. Offense is going to make some plays. But I'm going to go with 27-24 Houston. And I think CJ has a stamp on rookie of the year type of game, and so will Will.

Starting point is 00:23:09 I like that a lot. I like it, and I've got kind of the same temperature on that. I'm going 23 to 20 Colts. I think it's one of those games where the last team with the ball wins it. Yeah. For me, I don't know if it's overtime, whether it's regulation in the final minute or so, but I think a Matt Gay field goal does it for the Colts.

Starting point is 00:23:29 I think they are getting pretty close to relative full health, as much as that can mean this late in the season. They're getting closer. Jonathan Taylor wasn't in that first matchup. I think him and Zach Moss together could have a decent game. The Colts starting five offensive linemen should finally be out there again. That's only happened a handful of times this year. I think Minshew has done a better job later in the season.

Starting point is 00:23:57 He's still pretty chaotic at times, but he hasn't been turning the ball over as much. We've seen the Amari Cooper game recently. Things can happen downfield. I don't know whether that's going to be Michael Pittman or Alec Pierce. We've seen Alec Pierce have a couple breakout performances recently downfield. I like Pierce too, man. He's not bad. They need to round out his game a little bit,

Starting point is 00:24:21 but he's been able to kill guys downfield. But then in the end, I think defensively, there's only so much you can do to contain CJ Stroud, but I think the Colts can get some pressure on him. I think they'll sack him about three times. Houston doesn't really turn the ball over much, so I don't know what the Colts can do in terms of takeaways. But I like the Colts to escape this one narrowly,

Starting point is 00:24:46 and then hopefully whoever wins this game is standing there as AFC South champs, and it's not the Jaguars again. Yo, I think everybody is praying against the Jaguars. And I will say, there is one area of this defense that can be hurt. It is attacking downfield. A second there for Houston hasn't been consistent. The safety position hasn't been the greatest. So I think that's an area where Indy can win. On the flip side for

Starting point is 00:25:15 Houston, I think an area where they can win and help out their secondary is just getting out to their quarterback. They've been able to dominate games inside, outside. They got to dominate up front. They got to make Gardner-Michigan's day from the first snap tough. And I think that's a very strong possibility that they can do that. Yeah, I'm interested to see if the Colts can do anything downfield again. They had a 58-yard touchdown to Pierce last week,

Starting point is 00:25:46 but they haven't really strung together consecutive games, being able to attack downfield. But we'll see. Everybody, hang with us. You're still going to hear from us before the game. Again, this game is on Saturday, getting flexed under the lights. It'll be a good one. Again, be sure to check out Locked on Sports today,

Starting point is 00:26:04 the first-ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. If you guys don't already, be sure to follow at Locked On Colts and at Locked On Texans on Twitter. Subscribe to us on YouTube. Listen wherever you get podcasts. Also, we would love your guys' ratings and reviews as well. That's how that helps us get up the charts. And one of these teams is going to

Starting point is 00:26:25 be in the playoffs. So you're going to need to keep hearing us for at least another week or two. And with that, we will see you guys on Friday morning.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts Gear Up for Biggest Game in a Couple Years vs. Houston Texans

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