Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: How Far Are They From Being CHAMPIONSHIP-CALIBER?

Starting point is 00:00:00 My favorite national analyst has a philosophy on the ingredients that make up a championship team. And today I'm going to put the Colts to the test. Let's get to it. You are Locked on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right, welcome to Locked on Colts, part of the Locked on Podcast Network. I am your host, Jake Arthur, the Indianapolis Colts beat writer for Roundtable Sports. and today we're doing a special exercise. So you guys might have saw on X earlier, Daniel Jeremiah, who works for NFL Network.

Starting point is 00:00:44 He is one of the hosts of the Moved the Sticks podcast. He's pretty much one of my favorite national analysts. I listen to that show all the time. So he put out a tweet earlier today. And it's something he has talked about for years now. But he's basically got an ingredients list of what he considers to be a championship team. If you're watching on video, I've got it here. But if you're listening on audio, I'll kind of spill it out for you here.

Starting point is 00:01:11 So basically, championship teams need to have pretty much all of these things in order to actually be legitimate contenders. So you've got to have quarterback filled out. You have to have three playmakers on offense. You have to have at least three quality offensive linemen. You have to have two legitimate pass rushers. That can be interior or exterior. They just have to be at least two guys. I can get after the quarterback consistently.

Starting point is 00:01:37 And then you have to have outside of those pass rushers, three defensive playmakers. So today we're going to go ahead and put the Colts through the ringer here and see how they stack up to those qualifications. Now, obviously, there is gray area in all of this. There are wait and seas and there's kind of, you know, there's guys who are maybe injured. And you kind of have to wait and gauge them based on that. But generally, we're going to go through this with the Colts and kind of say. see where they stand here. So let's start on the offensive side of the ball. You need one legit quarterback, obviously. So I gave the Colts a half a point here. I gave them a half to one point.

Starting point is 00:02:17 So obviously, Daniel Jones is making his way back from the Achilles injury last year. If you're getting the Daniel Jones pre-fibula injury last year, then yes, the Colts have that spot filled. that is a guy who he wasn't necessarily carrying the Colts to wins, but he was such a big part of what was going right with the Colts last year. And he was so perfect for Shane Steichen's offense distributing things how they needed to go, but also the cerebral part of it, making checks, the line of scrimmage, working really, really well with Tanner Bordalini with the protection calls and everything. Daniel Jones was an enormous part of why the Colts were good in the first half of last year. And then him being injured was a big part of why they were bad and went 0 and 7 down the stretch. So if Daniel Jones comes back and is generally as effective as he was last year, then I will say the Colts have this one filled.

Starting point is 00:03:18 They have that one quarterback. For the price they're paying him, you would hope so at least. but for now we can't say with certainty, so I'll give them a half. I can't say zero, but I'll give them a half because that same guy is on this team. He's just injured and we need to see what it looks like when he comes back this year. So at quarterback, that's what you got there. Moving along to offensive playmakers now. So again, Daniel Jeremiah said these championship level teams, they've got to have at least three playmakers.

Starting point is 00:03:50 This one, I think the Colts actually have plus another couple weight. and sees here. So Jonathan Taylor, there's no debate there. Taylor is a top five running back in football. He was a legitimate MVP candidate early in the year last year, was playing unbelievable football. I think last year was the best year of his career just as a football player. He was running the ball as well as anybody, but it was the best we'd seen him in past protection. It was the best we'd seen him as a past catcher. Jonathan Taylor hit his final evolution last year. Now, things went how they went down the stretch.

Starting point is 00:04:27 The whole team fell apart. He wasn't as effective. There were injuries on the line, yada, yada. We're just kind of flushing last year a good bit and moving on forward. But as far as we know, they have that one filled with Jonathan Taylor being one of those three offensive playmakers. Alec Pierce as well, that one you can question whether or not he is a legitimate wide receiver one, but what you cannot question is him being a playmaker.

Starting point is 00:04:53 For the last two years, he's led the NFL in yards per catch. He's also been a deadly red zone target for them, regardless of who the quarterback is. He's been very sure-handed, and he's just been a big matchup problem, and he's been able to be consistently the best corners in football. If you look at a guy like Derek Stingley for the Texans, there's probably not many guys that give him fits, but Alec Pierce, routinely beats him. Pierce got the better of Patrick Sertan the second on more than one occasion last year against the Broncos. So this is a guy who physically can match up well against any

Starting point is 00:05:33 corner in the entire NFL, and he gets results. And now for the first time, we're going to see him with an expanded role. So I definitely can say that the Colts have at least two guys with Taylor and Pierce. Now, I'm going to say they have a third with Tyler Warren. Tyler is probably already one of the top 10 tight ends in the NFL. He came in last year and was one of the most productive rookie tight ends in NFL history. Now, it just so happened. He came in with a very good class with Colston Loveland and Harold Fanon and Arande Gadsden. Last year was very oddly rich in rookie tight end talent. If it was just Tyler Warren or just Tyler Warren and Loveland or just a couple guys. I think he would have got even more attention and there'd be more buzz about him going

Starting point is 00:06:20 into this year. But he was as advertised last year coming in as a rookie. And now he has that rookie year behind him and we can move forward and see the next degree of what Tyler Moore can bring to the table. So the Colts, I think they've got those three offensive playmakers checked off and they've got two wait and Cs that I'm going to list here. Josh Downs as a slot receiver you don't see many slot receivers being like dominant receivers. So I'm not going to say that he's like an elite receiver, but is he potentially going to ascend into being a difference maker this year? I think perhaps.

Starting point is 00:07:00 So number one, he's got to stay healthy. His rookie year is the only one he's played, you know, a full slate, 17 games. He deals with some some bumps and bruises sometimes, some minor things, which can cause him a game or two throughout the year. but if he could stay healthy and we know he's going to get more consistent attention this year with Michael Pittman Jr. being gone, then I think, you know, we're going to see a really, really good version of Josh Downs. He could create yards after the catch. He's very shifty, normally very sure-handed. And he is probably the Colts best pass catcher when it comes to

Starting point is 00:07:39 quickly getting open and winning a one-on-one matchup. So Josh Downs is someone who could prove to be a true difference maker there. And then Dionne Burks. He's a rookie, so we know nothing about what he'll look like in the NFL. But his college tape shows an explosive, strong player with pretty good hands that can create after the catch and win vertically. So you basically, and Dionne Burks, if all goes well, you've got a guy who can have a similar effect of Alec Pierce, but in Josh Downs frame, essentially. So I think that this bodes very well for the Colts. They have those three playmakers you're looking for, perhaps up to five.

Starting point is 00:08:23 And that doesn't, I'm not going to add the running backs in there, you know, other than Taylor, obviously, but, you know, McGowan, DJ Giddens, not going to throw them in there yet. I don't think they're going to get a big enough workload this year to see. But I just don't think that's necessarily their ceiling either. I think they're kind of niche players. but the Colts do have good offensive talent right now. That really wasn't up for debate much during the offseason.

Starting point is 00:08:50 It was all kind of about the defensive side of the ball. And actually coming up in just a moment, we're going to get to that defensive side of the ball after we talk about the offensive linemen. Do the Colts have enough of those quality offensive linemen that Jeremiah said that you need to have? Support for today's episode comes from Square. The system that helps fix one of the biggest headaches in running a business.

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Starting point is 00:11:08 dot supercast.com to join today. All right. So we've talked about the bulk of the offense. Daniel Jeremiah's criteria says you need a quarterback. You need three offensive playmakers. But at least three of your five offensive linemen need to be considered quality as well. I say the Colts have at minimum three right now. Berenhardt Ryman is one of the better left tackles in the league,

Starting point is 00:11:32 certainly at least slightly above average. I'm not going to say he's elite, but he is better than most. He got a $20 million per year extension last off season as well. So you got left tackle covered. Quentin Nelson is a Hall of Famer when he hangs it up. He's still active, still playing very, very, very good football. So you got Quentin Nelson. And then Tanner Bordalini, center is not a very deep position around the league.

Starting point is 00:11:58 And Bordellini is already considered league-wide, one of the better young centers that there is. Certainly, again, kind of like Bernhardt Riemann, is the elite. maybe not, but he's above average. So I think you got three quality offensive line in minimum, the entire left side. And then you've got Matt Gonzalez, who's going to go into year two as the starting right guard. He spent year one as the swing tackle. So he's played a lot of football going into year three.

Starting point is 00:12:29 The Colts have been kind of singing his praises, you know, especially Tony Sparano, Jr., the offensive line coach, talking about how this guy looks, you know, now that he is a full-on guard. You know, before he got to the NFL, he was only a tackle. Now he's taking another step into the development of him as a full-time guard. He put on 10 pounds of lean muscle mass this offseason working with former Bears offensive lineman Olin Kruz. So Gonzalez, the arrow was at least pointing up for him right now.

Starting point is 00:13:01 He's not, you know, he's not extraordinary right now. I wouldn't put him at the same level as Raymond Nelson and Bordellini. but he's ascending. His arrow is up. He is getting better. Jalen Farmer, I don't really think, is going to usurp him as the starter this year. I think Farmer's going to cook a little bit behind the scenes. I think they'll get him work as maybe like an extra lineman, maybe on the field goal unit, like they'll get him some work. And then as we know, injuries always happen. Farmer will find a way to get some playing time. But then Jalen Travis is another wait and see. He's going to be your new right tackle this year, replacing Braden Smith. He did play at right tackle

Starting point is 00:13:43 for really the final quarter of the year last year. Smith landed on IR with a concussion and neck injury. So Jalen Travis, just like Gonzalez, Arrow is pointing up, but you can't, we've not seen enough of him to consider him good or bad to this point. But I think other than the three we, three offensive linemen, we know are solid guys, Ryman, Nelson, and Bordolini. The Colts have three more, I think the arrow is certainly pointing up with them. Consolves, Jalen Travis, and Jalen Farmer. Farmer, the fourth round rookie this year. Arguably the strongest player in the draft we've been hearing,

Starting point is 00:14:19 a guy who moves around very well. His game needs a little refinement in some of the mechanics and things like that, hand placement footwork. But eventually he'll be a starter for this team. We don't know when. We don't know if it'll be because of injury. But the Colts are super bullish on this guy. And, you know, Tony Sparano, Jr. has earned the right for us to trust that he can get the most out of these guys, especially ones that he really, really likes in the draft process. There's a reason for it. He usually gets the most out of these guys and they turn out pretty well. So the Colts offensive line is in great shape for the foreseeable future. Now, let's look at the defensive side of the ball because there's a little more mystery there. So Jeremiah, again, his criteria says that you need two legit pass rushers.

Starting point is 00:15:07 I'll say the Colts have one. Layatu Latu, maybe he's not been the guy that, you know, you want him to be putting up T.J. Watt numbers. He's not done that, but he is productive. He affects the quarterback. He just needs to finish a little more. I think the Colts definitely have at least one legit pass rusher in La Jalatu Latu. The rest is a lot of, you know, you're waiting to see what Jalen to him a low-ow is.

Starting point is 00:15:36 Arden Key is a veteran. who's just he's okay, he's solid, he's a guy, but he's not really much of a difference maker. Michael Clemens, honestly, was playing bad football last year with the Jets. And then you got a couple rookies in George Gums Jr. and Caden Curry. So the Colts don't have anyone on the exterior besides Lattu. On the interior, you know, you could, you could use to say to Forrest Buckner, but at this point, I don't think he's necessarily going to be a full-time player anymore.

Starting point is 00:16:12 And he's going to be 33 by the time the year is over. He's coming off the neck injury. He's a lot closer to us being able to not consider him in this thing as a big difference maker than we are being able to confidently say that he is. So he is there, and I think he's going to have some level of productivity. But, you know, he's entering the final year of his contract. as well. I just, it's hard for me to be like, yes, this is a guy you can hang your hat on. I think you could get some good stuff out of DeForest Buckner. And, you know, if the Colts are lucky, he'll look like the DeForest Buckner of old. I just think it's really hard for us to say

Starting point is 00:16:52 that with confidence, you know, but we hope for the best around here. So the Colts are one player short of having the two necessary, legit pass rushers. And again, that could come from the inside or outside. It doesn't just have to be two guys, you know, LATU and whoever the other edge is. It could be, you know, Buckner, if he comes back and is awesome, then boom, you do have two pass rushers, but we can't say that for certain. And then defensive playmakers, you need three. I could say comfortably the Colts have two. You have a bunch of other guys that are wait and see. So Soss Gardner, still one of the higher level cornerbacks, you know, when he was on the field briefly with the Colts last year.

Starting point is 00:17:35 He was playing good football. He was playing good football with the Jets before he got traded. But sauce with an entire offseason to rest and recover and get right after that calf injury. Just be a member of the Colts. Soak in the playbook. Just, again, entrenched himself as a member of the Colts and not a guy who was traded midseason from the Jets to the Colts. So I think this whole thing is going to be an enormous level of stability for Gardner. That's going to set him up for success this year.

Starting point is 00:18:05 So I'll consider him one of these playmakers. The Colts better hope so for what they gave up for him. Of course, can bind him. I could say he's a playmaker as well. That's why the Colts signed him in the first place, and he rewarded them with a career high and interceptions with four. I believe he had a career high in tackles for loss as well. The Colts can blitz with him a little bit.

Starting point is 00:18:28 He's a physical player. He stacks up well as a tackler. I mean, one year with the Vikings, he had comfortably over 100 tackles. So the guy can do it. He's someone who can affect the game in a multitude of ways. So I could say comfortably the Colts have at least two of the three that they need. Sauce Gardner and Cam Bynham. Now they have a handful of guys that I'm going to talk about here who one of them is bound to step up and be the third guy.

Starting point is 00:18:56 So I don't want to say the Colts don't have the third guy, but we don't know. for certain that they do or who it's going to be, you know. But I do think one of these guys will step up and be at least that third guy. So C.J. Allen, who you took in the second round at linebacker. Now, you could consider a playmaker just in the way that he defends the run and if he's going to be good in coverage. I think that's good enough to qualify him. What we're missing here is literally the splash plays.

Starting point is 00:19:27 I think he had one interception in his entire career at Georgia, only a handful of past breakups, not a ton of like fumble numbers either. The Colts are confident that that's coming with him and that in this system, it sets him up for success a little bit better than at Georgia. Not that Georgia's system isn't good for guys to develop. And obviously, it's Georgia's defense.

Starting point is 00:19:50 But the Colts defense will, I think, just allow him to showcase that ability a little more. Things are going to be flowing to the middle of the field where he's going to be also that's going to be more, opportunity. And then the guy they drafted right after him in the third round, AJ Halsey, the safety. Playmaker is everything he's known for at LSU. Big hits, great range, able to fly in and take guys out. Big interception numbers had 10 interceptions in his career. He's able to force fumbles. He recovers them.

Starting point is 00:20:21 AJ Halsey is a playmaker, but he's a rookie. So we have to wait and see what that is going to look like in the NFL and how quickly he develops. So eventually, absolutely, I say these first two guys will fit this criteria. We just don't know what it looks like as rookies. Justin Wally is another guy that kind of fits in that same bucket. Had a great offseason in summer last year before he tore his ACL early into training camp and missed his entire rookie year before it started. That was incredibly unfortunate.

Starting point is 00:20:54 He was a player that the entire Colts organization was super bullish on. and then the whole rug just got kind of ripped out from under them. He is probably going to be your new starting slot defender this year, replacing Kenny Moore. So he's going to play a lot of snaps, well over 500, 600, 600, 700, health permitting. So Wally's going to be on the field a lot. And if he winds up being what the Colts thought they had last year,

Starting point is 00:21:21 that's definitely going to be a playmaker because he's got ball skills. He plays the ball, you know, knocks it away. He's able to force. fumbles, he's physical. That guy's a playmaker. And then Mooney Ward, Chavarvarez Ward, Sr., the big high-priced item that you signed last off-season. Last year did not go as planned. He had the three concussions. As he told us in the media last week, he was very open with us. He was still very much in mourning of the loss of his daughter from October or November 24. I think October of 2024. he's in a much better place now.

Starting point is 00:22:01 He's got his family back with him now. So Ward seems to be in a better headspace than he was before, which understandably, even if he wasn't, you know, nothing worse can happen to a person, what happened to him. And then physically, if he could stay healthy with the concussions, this is a good football player. You know, if you look at, it's hard to quantify the effectiveness of a cornerback just to the naked eye, unless you go back and look at everything. But for those who haven't, if you go to pro football focus, they had both Soss Gardner and Moody Ward as top 10 corners last year

Starting point is 00:22:37 for what they did when they actually were on the field. Now, both guys were hurt more often than they weren't for the most part in their time with the Colts. But when they were on the field, they were playing effective football. So I think the Colts have comfortably two of the 3D defensive playmakers they need. And then we'll see what comes. of C.J. Allen, AJ Halsey, Justin Wally, and Mooney Ward. So I think the Colts have those guys. We'll just see, you know, health has been the biggest thing for the Colts defense. And we're actually going to talk about that more in just a moment. All right. So we have talked about what the

Starting point is 00:23:16 Colts do and don't have based on Daniel Jeremiah's criteria for a championship team. And if you're joined the show late, let's just go ahead and recap this for you. I'll throw it back up here on the screen as well. So Daniel Jeremiah of the Move the Sticks podcast and one of the preeminent NFL draft analysts out there, he's got criteria for what builds a championship team. He says you have to have a quarterback, at least three offensive playmakers, at least three of your five offensive linemen have to be considered quality. You have to have two legit pass rushers. It could be exterior or interior. And then you need to have three other defensive playmakers not that are not of those pass rushers as well.

Starting point is 00:23:56 So we've been looking to see what the Colts have here. The biggest things we're waiting to see here for the Colts that provide a gap and then being a championship team is there needs to be clarity at quarterback. So you have Daniel Jones, who you like, but, you know, 2026 is a huge year. He's coming back from the Achilles. is if he doesn't look like himself and you don't think he's the guy or he gets hurt again seriously, like not just dealing with something that keeps him out a week or two. If he gets seriously hurt again, which has been a theme throughout his career,

Starting point is 00:24:34 or just doesn't look like the guy, well, that gives you the clarity that you need a new quarterback. You can get out of this huge contract that he signed with a cap savings of $11.6 million in 2027. So after the season, you're still going to have plenty of dead cap, but that, you know, they've got guarantees to pay him that don't count against the salary cap. After that, the best case scenario is that you find a good second rounder next year in what should be a very, very deep quarterback class. A lot of the guys who were supposed to be in this year's class maybe didn't feel good enough or weren't ready enough to go into the, the 2026 draft. they'll all be coming out next year. So the depth of quarterback next year should be pretty good, and it should be pretty top-heavy.

Starting point is 00:25:25 So the Colts don't have a first-round pick. They might have something available in the second round that is potentially franchise quarterback adjacent, you know? Or they could just throw that all to the win and trade into the first round, which, of course, would take a lot of capital and probably amount to their entire, your entire draft class. The most realistic option, I think, is if you move on from Jones, is you just wait until the 2028 draft when you have a first round pick again.

Starting point is 00:25:59 In the meantime, maybe you find a good bridge quarterback or another reclamation option becomes available next year again, if you move on from Jones. But best case scenario overall is that Jones proves to be the guy he stays healthy. and you kind of pick up where you left off from the first half of last year. So that is the optimal clarity that the Colts are looking for is that they do have this quarterback that Jeremiah says you need to have and that it is Jones. Moving along, you need another stud pass rusher, whether it's interior or from the outside. Now, here's some options.

Starting point is 00:26:36 Jalen to a mallow out could prove to be a stud. He could be awesome this year and that really solves things. or at least he's good enough to free Lyatulatu-Latu up to live out his potential, if that makes sense. That doesn't mean that Tua Mala has to be a 10-sat-side guy, but if he's capable of giving you like eight sacks and he's given you good pressure and he's someone that offenses have to account for and it allows La Jai-a-Latu-Latu to have, you know, less attention, then that's maybe, you know, I think it's still like a guy that you probably give you 10 sacks, but I think you could consider that good enough. I think another thing that you could look at is that the pass rush is kind of a sum of its parts,

Starting point is 00:27:21 like we saw in 2023. At 2023, the Colts didn't have any stars as pass rushers, but they had 51 sacks. They were top five in the NFL. They set a new Indianapolis era record for sacks. And again, they did it without having one dominant guy. I think they had three players who finished with at least eight sacks, maybe four guys who had at least seven. So if you're getting production from the entire group like that, I would say that counts as well. That's kind of like if you look at the Seahawks.

Starting point is 00:27:52 The Seahawks didn't have any like dominant guys, but they had four or five, six guys that can get after the quarterback. That's kind of best case scenario for the Colts because, you know, unless you're going to trade for someone who at this point who are you going to trade for that's like a bona fide stud. you're probably not. You could find someone that can, you know, maybe like a Jadavian clownie, though, was productive last year with the Cowboys. He's maybe someone who can provide enough,

Starting point is 00:28:20 again, to take that pressure off Latu, and Clowny can get you eight or nine sacks, while LATU is freed up with less attention. That's another avenue. I think George Gubman's Jr. and Caden Curry kind of factor into this. If they could give you anything and contribute,

Starting point is 00:28:37 That's a plus. I wouldn't really count on it as rookies. And then if you're fast forwarding to next year when you have to fill this this need, again, you don't have a first round pick, which is where most teams find those bona fide pass rushers. Maybe you find someone in luck out in the second round or again, like we mentioned with quarterback, trade into the first round. And then the last thing here that we're waiting to see is the health and development

Starting point is 00:29:04 of the defense. And that's when we touched on the three defensive. playmakers. So you got to stay healthy. Number one, they were just incredibly snake bitten by injuries and then these young guys have to develop. You're waiting to see what C.J. Allen, Bryce Betcher, Mooney Ward, Justin Wally, Hunter Wooler, A.J. Halsey, surely at least a couple of these guys are going to pan out to be pretty good. But we don't know yet. There are mysteries. They're either too young or they've been injured or both. So we'll have to wait and see on that. So I think if you take all these things together, the Colts are not too far off from being one of those teams that can

Starting point is 00:29:43 catch fire and really contend and go deep into being a championship caliber team. I mean, no one thought Seattle would do that this year. So while people who are down on the Colts may laugh at that and say that's ridiculous, it's the NFL teams turn around very quickly, especially teams that were hurt and get healthy and stay healthy in a season. The Colts are banking on a lot of that at very important positions. Quarterback, you already have the playmakers on offense that we mentioned. The offensive line should be pretty good. So if Daniel Jones comes back and is good, this offense should be very good.

Starting point is 00:30:24 Defensively, it's wait and see on a lot of guys who were hurt last year and some young guys. So DeForest Bukter was hurt last year. Mooney Ward, Sauce Gardner, those guys were hurt. Justin Walley and Hunter Roller were rookies and hurt. You have C.J. Allen now, A.J. Halsey, Bryce Becher. There's an enormous amount of mystery on the defensive side of the ball. That could turn out really positively and make this one of the better defenses. It could go the other way and everyone's hurt again or young guys don't develop how they should.

Starting point is 00:30:56 No one steps up as another pass rusher opposite a lot to. there's things that can go wrong as well, but I don't think the Colts are all that far away from being able, first they've got to get back to the playoffs, obviously first and foremost. But being one of those teams that can catch fire in January and get a few rounds into the playoffs and actually make some legitimate noise.

Starting point is 00:31:19 So I came away from this exercise, putting the Colts through the test, pretty optimistic. Now, that doesn't mean things are going to break for them this year. But I could see them being a year or so, away. They need to have some luck in the draft because not having a first round pick next year certainly is not optimal. But again, there are kind of ways to create your own assets. You know what I mean? So stay optimistic Colts fans, you know, until they prove that they are going to be a bad team,

Starting point is 00:31:53 let's operate under the assumption and think positively that they're going to put something good out there. So thank you for going through this little exercise with me today, guys. Thanks for tuning into Locked on Colts today. We'll be back later tonight for the Locked on Colts squad show as well as the regular daily show tomorrow. So make sure you subscribe and follow Locked on Colts so that you get all of our latest episodes. If you don't already follow us on social media, get us at Lockedon Colts at Jake Arthur NFL and at Zach Hicks 2 on social media. And remember if you never miss an episode, then the Every Dare club was built just for you. get our audio ad free plus an invite to our members only discord and more just head to lock

Starting point is 00:32:35 on colts.com to join the club and with that thanks again for joining me today and we will see you tonight for the squad show

Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: How Far Are They From Being CHAMPIONSHIP-CALIBER?

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