Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts' Joe Flacco Era Officially Begins Sunday Night vs. Minnesota Vikings

Episode Date: November 1, 2024

The Indianapolis Colts go on the road to take on the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football in the first official game of the Joe Flacco Era. Will they pull off the upset? Become a Locked On Colt...s insider! Ask your burning questions and get prompt answers from someone who's around the team every day! Get special access from the locker room, practice field, and press box! JOIN HERE! Find and follow Locked On Colts on your favorite podcast platforms:🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-colts/📺YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLdpxJspi1hMh5HL7ExpWOQLocked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-nfl/ Follow Jake and Zach's written work on HorseshoeHuddle.com, and give them a follow on Twitter @JakeArthurNFL, @ZachHicks2, @LockedOnColts, and @ColtsOn_SI, as well on TikTok and Instagram! Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Bilt Rewards5 Hour EnergyBetterHelpThis episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Make your brain your friend, with BetterHelp. Visit BetterHelp.com/LOCKEDON today to get 10% off your first month.LinkedInLinkedIn Jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/LOCKEDONNFL. Terms and conditions apply.Hillsdale CollegeAll of Hillsdale’s courses are self-paced so that you can start whenever, and tune in wherever. Plus, you can go deeper with readings, quizzes, discussions - or just enjoy the lectures. Go right now to hillsdale.edu/lockedon to enroll. There’s no cost, and it’s easy to get started.PrizePicksDownload the app and use code lockedonnfl to win $50 instantly when you play $5. You don't even need to win to receive your $50 bonus, it's guaranteed! Prizepicks. Run Your Game.Click Here: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/LOCKEDONNFLGametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms Apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.FanDuelYou can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. New customers can place aFIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - if you win your first FIVE DOLLAR BET!Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

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Starting point is 00:00:00 It's been a week for the Indianapolis Colts, featuring an enormous unexpected shift at the quarterback position. But now there's actually a game to play on Sunday night that seems to have taken a backseat. But today we're going to talk all about it and tell you what we think. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right. Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts,
Starting point is 00:00:39 part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's show is brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off of your first purchase. What's up, friends and family? This is Jake, Arthur, and Zach Hicks of HorseshoeHuddle.com. I'm your resident media member from the site, and Zach is your resident film nerd from the site.
Starting point is 00:01:02 And today we are officially previewing the first game of the rubber-stamped Joe Flacco era. It is the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. Honestly, this does have a different vibe than if it was Anthony Richardson going into it against a Brian Flores defense. Feels like a tall task for a young guy with not much experience to go into. But albeit it is Joe Flacco, of course, if you guys were under a rock, there's been a quarterback change. So we'll go over the offense today, the defense, and then ultimately what we think is going to go down.
Starting point is 00:01:38 But first let's start with some of the injuries. Not a long list of injuries for the Colts this week, but one big one, of course, like that always seems there has to be starting left tackle Bernhardt. Ryman is out with a concussion. He didn't practice this week. So hopefully he's able to make some strides next week and get back in time for the Jets. That means Matt Gonsalves, the rookie, will be in. And I think they've been preparing for now. Obviously, Ryman has not been practicing, but I think early in the week they were prepared for Gonsalves to be in there. We've already heard earlier in the week from Ryan Kelly and Quentin Nelson that Matt was going to be the starter before it was even really ever set out in the public on the injury report. So it's going to be two rookies on the line. Matt Gonsalves making his first start. He hasn't had
Starting point is 00:02:25 much action whatsoever so far this year, Zach. And then rookie undrafted right guard Dalton Tucker, who's had some ups and downs. There's been some good, definitely some bad as well, but he's not facing Calais Campbell this week, luckily. But as far as the Vikings go, when we're looking at Colts offense versus the Vikings, starting linebacker Blake Cashman is out. That's a big deal. He's very, very important to what they do up front, especially against the run. So what's the vibe check, Zach?
Starting point is 00:02:55 What are you feeling? It's been a couple days that we've been able to sleep on this whole thing. And now we just got a game to look ahead to. Jake, I feel great right now. I feel like I'm on some antidepressants. I'm just relaxed. I am chill. This is great.
Starting point is 00:03:09 But no, like I, look, if we're just evaluating this for a one game thing here, and obviously, again, we'll take it week by week as we go the rest of the season with this new Joe Flacco era. But if we're looking at this matchup for the Colts offense, it certainly is more appealing with Joe Flacco than with Anthony Richardson. For as much as you and I both prefer Richardson to be the starter right now and, you know, bemoan this move that the Colts made this week, there's no denying the fact that Joe Flacco is probably the better option this week against the Minnesota Vikings. You know, Richardson was struggling to identify blitzes and find his hot reads and was really struggling in the short to intermediate area of the field
Starting point is 00:03:49 where Joe Flacco, albeit hasn't been perfect as a passer this year, has been much cleaner in those departments this season. So I do think this move to Joe Flacco for this primetime game against a blitz-heavy Minnesota Vikings team will benefit the Colts' offense a little bit more. I think the passing game will definitely get going. We should expect the Colts' passing offense to be just at a higher clip of percentage. Again, with Richardson this year, I think the Colts have been a 52% pass offense this year to 48% run.
Starting point is 00:04:22 With Joe Flacco, it's been closer to like 63, 64% pass. They really go pass heavy with Joe Flacco out there. So I expect that to continue this week. And look, man, Joe Flacco, he grew up in the era of Pittsburgh Steelers, blitz heavy, you know, fire zone blitzes were the thing. I mean, Pittsburgh's always been a fire zone blitz team, but especially when Joe Flacco played in the AFC North back in his early days of his career now he's going into this Brian Flores defense which has essentially taken the fire zone blitz like mentality and ideology and just expanded upon it and made it even more hectic and chaotic and this is something Joe Flacco has seen since he was a young pup in the NFL so I don't think it's anything too crazy from what he's used to playing in this
Starting point is 00:05:05 league for so long, which better prepares him for this match against the Vikings. There will certainly be sacks in this game. Joe Flacco has a higher pressure to pressure to sack ratio than Richardson. He doesn't have the mobility that Richard Richardson has to get off of sacks and create after it gets out of sacks. But I do think that we'll see the ball get out a little quicker, a little bit more efficiency in the middle of the field and in the intermediate game. And hopefully he'll be able to take advantage of a Vikings defense that has struggled the last two weeks against veteran quarterbacks who, again, has seen this kind of style the last couple seasons. So I expect this Colts offense, like, look, again, if you're making this move,
Starting point is 00:05:41 you have to have high expectations for the Colts offense, right? If you're making this move at quarterback, where Richardson's averaged around 20 points per game in his starts this year, so he hasn't been, like, dreadful, dreadful at scoring points. If you're making this move to Joe Flacco, your expectation at a minimum needs to be, like, mid-20s for this offense. Maybe high 20s or, I mean, dare I say 30s, but, like, at least, like, mid-20s. Like, you're expecting a couple points per game boost if you're making this move to a 39 year old quarterback. So they got to produce. And I do think it's well set up for this offense to produce, even though it's a primetime game at Minnesota, a very tough environment. I think Flacco is better suited for this type of
Starting point is 00:06:20 game, even with the downgrade that comes with with him starting in terms of like avoiding sacks and such. No, I think you're right. Like I was telling Luke Braun on the crossover, there's going to be games, perhaps even this one where there's going to be four, four, five or six sacks, just because like you can get after a guy like this. Now Joe can make you pay like a veteran quarterback will because he can identify blitzes. You know, this could be a big like Josh Downs game. It's going to open up, you know, yards after catch opportunities, especially there over the middle.
Starting point is 00:06:51 And especially if you don't have a guy like Blake Cashman out there, who knows what you're going to get from Michael Pittman at this point. You know, he's been able to practice a little bit of, of course, got his Thursday in was limited limited today but i'm just i cannot tell you how much i want to be able to submit ad mitchell into the conversation like i want it to finally be something that we can put into a preview of of our games that again it's just it's so right. I feel like it's so close. And if they could just have that extra little piece in the passing game,
Starting point is 00:07:29 especially with this guy who they're going to start passing more often now that will open up things so much because some of the things that AD Mitchell can perhaps give them is what they're missing. While Pittman's banged up Pittman's out there, but he's not Michael Pittman really right now. Right. I think another X. Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt,
Starting point is 00:07:48 but I still maintain that Mitchell's going to have a breakout game one of these weeks where it's like two catches for like 65 yards and a touchdown. I mean, this could be the week because the double moves against the Blitz and one-on-one situations, but we'll see. It might be more of a quick passing game type of week, but Mitchell will have that one breakout game where everyone goes crazy because he gets like a 50-yard touchdown
Starting point is 00:08:09 perception for sure yeah the old Alec Pierce game but no I think another x factor in this is Flacco really hasn't had Jonathan Taylor at his disposal in the time that he's been out there uh it's you know Richardson and Joe Flacco's injuries kind of lined up. So it'll be interesting to see. It's still going to be a step back in the run game, I think. But Jonathan can create so many of his own yards that, you know, I think we'll still be able to call it a decent or strong run game. So that's, I hope that takes a little bit off of Flacco's plate to where he's not having to pass so much. At least you just don't want them to be a single focus offense, especially if Taylor's out there. Now the offensive line, that's going to be tough to gauge.
Starting point is 00:09:00 Who knows what it's going to look like with Matt Gonzalez out there at left tackle. It's an important position. Dalton Tucker is not yet someone we can really say definitives about I mean he's learning but he's going to have to take his lumps as well so I'm hoping they're able to have some sort of a well-rounded offense and you know Joe can take advantage of some of those blitzes because you know when there's more defenders there in the backfield that leaves you know that that sways the numbers for the offense there beyond the line of scrimmage obviously so there's going to be opportunities I just hope they can take advantage of it yeah and one more thing to say with with Taylor you know it's a very small sample size but with Anthony Richardson this year Taylor averages 5.2 yards per carry with Joe Flacco and limited snaps only 18
Starting point is 00:09:44 carries with Flacco in that Steelers game or sorry only 18 carries with Flacco in that Steelers game or sorry, 16 carries with Flacco in that Steelers game. It was only 3.6 yards per carry. So this really comes down to Shane Steichen. Can you adjust your running game to, to work with a non-mobile quarterback? Because a lot of what he does with his offense is running out of pistol, running out of the gun and taking advantage of having that plus one quarterback. You can't really run out of the gun and taking advantage of having that
Starting point is 00:10:05 plus one quarterback you can't really run out of the gun and run out of pistol as much with joe flacco unless you have an rpo game attached to it which flacco is not good at the rpo game so you've got to do more under center stuff which flat which uh stykin has not really done since his early days with the chargers so it'll be it'll be interesting to see how much they adjust because you really can't adjust too much uh mid-season this. But I don't think the running game can really work without that plus one quarterback, even with Jonathan Taylor, who might be able to get around four yards to carry still, but it still won't be super effective as it was with Anthony Richardson. So that's honestly going to be one of the biggest things I'm watching this week is,
Starting point is 00:10:43 will this run game be salvageable the rest of the season, or will it look like it did in that second half of that Steelers game, even with Taylor, where it's like they're running into a cement wall every single snap outside of one run that Taylor broke off for 25 yards? Yeah, throughout his career, other than a stretch of his rookie year with Phillip Rivers, Jonathan, without a mobile quarterback, it hasn't always looked good. And now he was banged up part of that. But it really does beg a question of like, we're going to have to see what it really looks like.
Starting point is 00:11:16 Because right now he looks really good. He kind of looks like he's at his current best of what that can be. So coming up here, we're going to look at the defensive matchup. It's a bit more interesting. Vikings got some dogs on that side of the ball. So we're going to talk about that here in a minute. This is Indiana and it is getting chilly. And that means basketball is picking up. The Pacers are here. High school basketball is going to get picking up here. And there's just really nothing that puts you into a current state of a nostalgic feeling than being in a gym and hearing the squeaks and everything. And when you want to go buy tickets to something like the Pacers or, you know, when the fevers
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Starting point is 00:13:08 Flacco time. Wrong. Flacco time, baby. Flacco time. All right. And when we're this late in the week, when we have just had a dogged week talking about the same subject, a quarterback change, you get a little drowsy and you need a boost.
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Starting point is 00:13:50 the fans who are first in the parking lot and are the last to leave. We see you. You know what else gave me a bit of Colts fan fuel this week? Looking towards the future again, because after all it is always draft season in Indianapolis. Five-hour energy knows that no matter what team you root for, being a fan requires heart, soul, and a whole lot of energy. Whether you're prepping for a big tailgate or ironing your jersey, your game day to-do list is always a mile long. That's why the limited edition Stand the Fan
Starting point is 00:14:21 five-hour energy shot is here to keep you fueled throughout the season what's your fan feel this week whatever it is do it with a five-hour energy available on fivehourenergy.com shipped nationwide okie doke colts defense zach uh quitty pay is questionable hamstring that's something that's popped up a couple times for him this year now uh So we'll keep an eye on that one. But luckily DeForest Buckner is back. I know not the same position, but when you're talking pass rush and just needing to take advantage of an offensive line in Minnesota, that's not the greatest. At least Buckner is not still out. And you have Laatu Laatu. Dio Dangbo is on one of his patented heaters right now. So life could be worse in the event that he has to be out. He has logged a couple limited sessions, though, including today on Friday. So fingers crossed that Pei will be out there.
Starting point is 00:15:16 No matter how you cut it, this is kind of a tough matchup. Big play group, really good players, but there are areas where the Colts defense could really, you know, they have the opportunity to make their own big plays on this one. Obviously, Sam Darnold is playing the best ball of his life right now. Justin Jefferson is one of the better receivers of the last decade.
Starting point is 00:15:38 T.J. Hawkinson is back, which to me is like the ultimate X factor for them because tight ends against the Colts defense this year, they've been doing well, doing pretty well. And then Jordan Addison and another thing Minnesota does, they don't really pigeonhole receivers into certain roles. They move them around outside, inside, like that's, that's going to be a tall order for it's been a, it's been a cold secondary that I think has overachieved
Starting point is 00:16:05 at times but this this could be one of the matchups that's just kind of tough to overcome yeah it really comes down to this Colts defensive line playing like they did last week you know and I'm not saying that Gus Bradley needs to come out and blitz at like a 45 percent clip again like he did last week that was very very much an anomaly by Gus Bradley to counter what the Texans offensive line was struggling with and while this Vikings offensive line is certainly an upgrade from the Texans offensive line, it's not that much of an upgrade to where this is like the best offensive line in football. You know, Garrett Bradbury, a fine center, but not anything special. Ed Ingram, if he starts at Dalton Reisner starts like either way, that's still an advantage that
Starting point is 00:16:42 DeForest Buckner can take advantage of. And then even at tackle you know Cam Robinson was just traded over there he's getting in there for the first time as a Minnesota Viking there's going to be some issues I'm sure with just familiarity with the system and passing off stunts and twists and and even then like he's still a downgrade from Christian Deresol who is their superstar left tackle so this is an advantageous like matchup for this Colts defensive line and Sam Darnold has been playing really good this year like don't get me wrong Sam Darnold playing the best football of his NFL career but he has been holding on to the ball quite a bit in the passing game I think it's like 3.1 seconds or whatever in the pocket like time to throw is his average per per game this year And that's around what Anthony Richardson's was
Starting point is 00:17:26 at before Anthony Richardson got benched. So if you guys want to know how long Darnold is holding onto that ball, that's kind of a good comparison there. So if this Colts defensive line can maintain their rush lanes and really get after the quarterback and again, do what they did last week with DeForest Buckner back in the lineup, I think that they have a good chance to get after this Vikings offense and get more stops than what most people are expecting. Like I know this is a Shanahan tree type of guy against a Gus Bradley defense. And that typically doesn't spell good things for the Colts because Shanahan's tree was basically built to beat the cover three system that Gus Bradley has deployed in the past.
Starting point is 00:18:02 But Gus has done a good job mixing in a lot of cover two this year, mixing in a lot of stunts and blitzes up front. So this is kind of a different type of Gus Bradley. He still has his roots, don't get me wrong, but he has switched it up quite a bit this season, especially with cover two usage. So I do think the Colts are going to do their best to take away the big play. In the passing game, they're going to bring a good bit of pressure on Darnold. And it's really about how much they can mitigate the tackle, like the
Starting point is 00:18:30 missed tackles underneath and then the run game as well. That'll tell the whole story of this game, because if they can keep Darnold in the pocket and they can make tackles on short passes and they could at least be adequate against the run, we could see a really, really good Colts defensive game here because I don't think this Vikings offense is some juggernaut that's unstoppable just because they have some weak points on this offense. Maybe even some more weak points
Starting point is 00:18:53 than what the Texans showed last week, where you could take advantage of this offensive line, but at the end of the day, Stroud's going to make like four or five throws that nobody else can make. I don't think Darnold brings that same ability, even though he's been playing some good football this year. So really the key for this Colts defense is make your tackles on short stuff, which we've been saying all year is the most important thing for this Colts defense.
Starting point is 00:19:14 You know, slow down the run game and then get after Darnold with your defensive line. I know it's a very simple plan there, but again, simplicity works. That's what this defense is built on. It's built on simplicity and repetition and continually doing the right things on that side of the ball. And we've seen this year when the Colts have been making their tackles and when they slow down the run game, they've been a pretty fine defense. Like, I'm not going to say great defense, but been a pretty fine defense this year. So it's all about just doing those things there and they can give their Colts offense
Starting point is 00:19:42 a chance to win this game. Yeah, it's a simple plan, but that's a great band at the end of the day, Zach. Thank you. Yes, yes. So in this one, so I've been on with two Viking shows this week, Locked on Vikings with Luke Braun and then the Norse Code with our guy Arif Hassan. And both of them are basically saying DeForest Buckner has the advantage on the interior of this Vikings O-line. So historically he's done very well in this matchup. I think he's played him two other times before, and he has been a problem for the Vikings each time. A lot of the same cast of characters as well.
Starting point is 00:20:23 So a lot of the same guys are going to be matching up this in this one. So I'm definitely looking forward to Buckner. But I think it's time we get our Julian Blackman, like big play game. Like, I think it's coming. And I said the other day, you know, he's, he does really, really well against like Anthony Richardson in practice, for example. But if Sam, if, if the, one of the secrets to that success is the time that he holds onto the ball and it allows Julian to kind of download more data live as he's watching,
Starting point is 00:20:56 maybe that's what it is. And he could come up with a couple of big plays against Sam Darnold as, as Darnold hold onto the ball a little too long. Maybe he tries to force the ball downfield to Jefferson or Addison and Naylor, both guys that can get downfield as well. Maybe he goes and throws an errant ball up the seam to TJ Hawkinson that Blackman's there for. But I think I'm calling a Blackman pick in this one.
Starting point is 00:21:19 I think it's about time we get another one on the board this year. I want to say he's got two picks against the Vikings in his career. I know he has a pick six. Yeah, the pick six in the 33-0 game. Did he have a pick back in the 2020 game, though? I know there were a couple picks in that one. He might have. He picked off Joe Burrow that year as a rookie.
Starting point is 00:21:37 He might have picked off the Vikings that year. Maybe that was Kari that got that pick in that game. I don't know. We'll have to look back. Kari Willis did have an interception. Now you're saying that. Look at us, guys being dudes. We're just going to go over four or five year old games and who had
Starting point is 00:21:50 interceptions. Lindsey Pipkins. All right, Jake, let's go. All right. Shut up. Time for the next segment. All right. Now who is going to win this one? You know, after we have digested all these matchups and who's got the advantages, who is going to win. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with FanDuel, America's number one sports book.
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Starting point is 00:22:40 I'm not going to lie. This is a game that could go either way, but I'm very comfortable with saying the Vikings could beat them by a touchdown or more. I think the 5.5 is appropriate. I could still see the Colts winning or easily covering the spread, but I think the safe money is more so on the Vikings with that 5.5. The 46.5, that it's not as sure about, but I think I would nudge the over on that one just a little bit.
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Starting point is 00:23:27 All right, Zach. So I think I've only picked against the Colts like maybe twice this year. I have felt comfortable with there being a path to them winning each week. And I still feel the same. Like I still very much feel they could win this game. But if I'm just going with my gut on this,
Starting point is 00:23:43 I feel more comfortable calling it like a 27 to 20 vikings victory and there are a couple small x factors that you just can't predict that could lead to this even being like a game where both of them score in the 30s like the jaguars game for example you know luke braun and i were were discussing both these teams are bad on defense when your opponent is in third and a million. They're going to give it up. Both sides of this are going to do it. This could be a shootout game where both defenses just make terrible plays
Starting point is 00:24:18 in coverage or there's just a big soft spot there near the sticks and the opponent gets it. So little stuff like that. I mean, it's not little, but you know what I mean? Like little details like that could be the difference in this one. Penalties have been kind of a problem lately as well. So we'll, we'll see how that goes, but I'm going to say it's a 27, 20 Vikings win. Yeah. You know, it's funny. I feel like you and I are always on different wavelengths when it comes to our prediction because you're the hater and I'm always optimistic. Right, but this week we're kind of switching because, look, I'm going to take you guys on a ride here back to 2022. We had a whole
Starting point is 00:24:55 week. I'm sorry. I'm so sorry about this. I'm taking you down a really ugly road right now with this. But going back to 2022 2022 the colts were laughed at for an entire week i mean for for a whole for a couple months actually but mainly for an entire week when they brought in some esbn analysts to run their team as their head coach you know they're laughing at it and the one thing i know about the colts and i think we even predicted it that week because we were doing the podcast back during that season was if i know anything about the colts is when we all start laughing at them they prove us wrong for like a moment for a moment they'll prove us wrong and I think that's like everyone in national media has been blasting the Colts for for this
Starting point is 00:25:34 move about Anthony Richardson moving him to the bench and if I know anything about this Colts team they will win the first game after that they will certainly win the first game after making a move that people disagree with because you get the one week of victory laps from the Colts and then it goes downhill after that. So I do think, you know, if we're just going off of vibes like that kind of vibe, I think the Colts win this game. But also I kind of had the same feeling with this game like I did with the Texans game last week where I'm not saying the Colts outright win, but I'm looking at that spread much like I did last week with the Texans game. And I was like, I don't know, man, that spread is a little much for a Colts team that the Colts, like this Colts team is very much like someone that you never want to get into an argument with because they'll always bring
Starting point is 00:26:18 you down to their level. And then they're fighting you on home turf basically. And they make you play like their type of game which is this ugly brand of football it's like the Steelers man they do the same thing except the Steelers pretty much win every time they do that the Colts are more 50 50 with it but the Colts will bring you down to their level and make you play their type of ugly like whatever game the Colts decide to play which is like a stupid stupid ugly game sometimes that's what they're going to make you play on the same time so that's why the colts are like the only team in football this year with eight straight one score games a lot of games decided by a couple points i think they're what their point differential this year
Starting point is 00:26:53 has to be like minus like two or three like it's really not anything crazy this year it's not what it was in 2022 right so i do think the colts cover this for sure, but I'm actually going to pick them to win 30 to 28 in this one. I think Flacco will get them moving a little bit. I think he, and I love that you just mentioned to the third and long stuff because the Colts on first and second down with Flacco this year have been disastrous. Like their early down efficiency is terrible with Flacco. They can't run the ball and they can barely pass the ball.
Starting point is 00:27:24 But where has Joe Flacco been elite this year for the Colts? Third down the Colts offense this year. Third best in football. 20. I think it's 20 of 42 conversions with Joe Flacco at quarterback. It's like a 47% clip right there. I think it's only behind like the commanders and like the chiefs or something. And then on third down, he is by far and away the best quarterback in football in EPA per play,
Starting point is 00:27:48 like completion percentage over expected, like literally every advanced metric. And like, it's not even remotely close. Like he is blowing like Josh Allen out of the water in this metric right now. I think eventually that does regress, but it will never regress against a team like the Vikings who are just
Starting point is 00:28:04 cursed by the football gods. The football gods hate the Vikings. So I think the Colts still keep that third down money magic in this game. I think Flacco is just a good matchup for this Vikings defense in terms of being a guy who knows what he's doing and he can get the ball out. And I do think, again, we lean into that Colts prove everybody wrong for one week type thing and they get the win here in prime time and make everyone look silly for one week. And then it becomes more of the norm after that. But I do think the Colts get this victory. What I say 30 to 28. I think that feels pretty good for me. Well, so they can win on primetime back to back Vikings and Jets and then get thrown into the wood chipper against the Lions. mean that would be fun but but if you
Starting point is 00:28:45 can get out of that this next four game stretch with two wins and again you make this move because you need to make the playoffs it's essentially what they went to know these next two weeks that will be incredibly beneficial because houston's got a bad run of it too well that's the thing too it doesn't matter what you do against detroit and buffalo because those were losses prior to the season and like we know these next four games are difficult. Even the Jets are not that tough a team. It's still a difficult game on prime time. I think it's in New York as well. Very difficult game there. So if you can get out of these next four, just winning two of the four games, you're probably going to be a playoff team for the Colts because the final five, the Broncos are a fringe playoff
Starting point is 00:29:22 team, but the other four you face are all going to be fighting for top 10 pick top five pick maybe. So it is very much an advantageous schedule for the Colts. If they can get out of this next stretch with two wins, heck, even with one win, you probably have a good chance of the playoffs. But with two wins, I would dare to say almost a lock for the playoffs, which is what you're doing when you make this move to a 39 year old quarterback. So it, I mean, it starts with this one. If you can just like steal a win of this next four, steal two wins out of these next four, you're probably looking at the goal that you set out when you made this
Starting point is 00:29:53 change to Joe Flacco. Yeah, I agree. So, you know, my, my initial reaction to this, I do feel more comfortable saying it would be about the score I said,
Starting point is 00:30:04 but I think it's very possible for it to be about how you mentioned. And if the Colts do win, it would be a higher scoring game like that, like 30 to 28. But if they lose, it'll be about more what I said, 27-20. Yeah, I will say this too, before we get out of here, though, I do want to tell you guys, thank you very much from the bottom of my heart for making September and October our two biggest months of all time here. August two, three in a row now. Three in a row. So hopefully you guys can just ride that momentum train of Joe Flacco starting to give us our fourth straight. But
Starting point is 00:30:39 regardless, I did want to shout you guys out and say thank you to that. And I know regardless of what happens the rest of November, I know you guys will all be there at 1 a.m. on Sunday night or Monday morning, whatever it's going to be, listening to the postgame show. Because one, the content is going to be great after this game regardless. And two, we love all of our locked on listeners and our psychos that listen to us that stay up super late to listen to our show. So we always appreciate you guys. I just wanted to give you guys that shout out before we get out of here.
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