Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts' Josh Downs is X-Factor Against New Orleans Saints

Starting point is 00:00:00 Josh Downs needs to stay on a roll in order for the Colts to light up the scoreboard against a tough Saints defense this week. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right. Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's show is brought to you by PrizePix, which is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports.

Starting point is 00:00:50 Go to prizepix.com slash locked on NFL and use code all lowercase locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. What up, what up, everyone? This is Jake Arthur and Zach Hicks. You know the two of us from horseshoehuddle.com and today we are bringing you our final thoughts on colts saints they don't get a ton of these nfc south matchups and uh historically it has not been great against the saints uh some really one-sided performances uh but luckily, it seems like things are a lot different this time.

Starting point is 00:01:26 Drew Brees isn't over there. The Colts are ushering out another backup quarterback, though, which is very on brand for this series. But we're going to talk about things, really key points of focus on the offensive side of the ball. Because again, this is another tough defense that the Colts are going to face. But on the flip side, defensively, the Saints offense has more firepower and is capable of more firepower than what they've really put out there so far.

Starting point is 00:01:54 So we're going to take a look at what to expect there and then ultimately what we think the final outcome is going to be. So, Zach, hello, my friend. Are you ready to turn the page and get past these frustrating last couple of weeks? What last couple of weeks? The only thing I remember is the Colts put up 38 against the best defense in football, against the vaunted Cleveland Browns defense. That was the best defense in the last 50 years. The Colts put up 38 points. I don't know what the result of the game was. I just know the Colts put up 38 points. So I'm feeling good. I'm feeling good.

Starting point is 00:02:25 And you know, this, this Saints defense can't concern me right now because we just put up 38 against the Cleveland Browns. We're feeling good. I immediately started thinking of that Anakin Skywalker meme where it's like, and they won, right? They won, right? Yeah. But that's going to actually be the cover photo for this episode.

Starting point is 00:02:44 But no, Colts got to turn this to turn this page, not turn it over. You know, they're facing a defense that's pretty good, near the top of the league in takeaways with the Saints, tied for fifth with 12. Obviously, Gardner Minshew has eight over the final two games. So I think the really frustrating part, especially when you look at last week, was the Colts put up 38 points despite all those turnovers. So let's look at some positive vibes on this one. What are your expectations? What do you think the Colts might be able to do well in

Starting point is 00:03:16 this matchup? Well, you know, when we're talking like positive vibes, I think the vibes for the Colts offense have to be so positive right now, considering what they just did against the Cleveland Browns. Again, that's another matchup where going into it, you're thinking, okay, Gardner Minshew, more of a dump it down type of quarterback, a guy who's not going to push the ball down the field. And the Browns are just going to stack the box like the Jaguars did and just take away that run game. And it's just going to be a really big slugfest. You know, the offense is going to be stuck in the mud for most of the game, and maybe you can get enough field goals to win. Instead, the Colts are ripping it down the field. They're getting these 60-yard gains.

Starting point is 00:03:50 They're getting Michael Pittman Jr. breaking tackles for a huge touchdown, Alec Pierce catching a deep bomb, Josh Downs catching a deep touchdown to start the game, the running game getting going pretty early and often in that one too. So this Colts offense is clicking in all cylinders right now, despite it not really working the way we thought it would with Gardner Minshew. Like so far through these last two games with Gardner Minshew, it has not been the safe, dump it down type of offense that you would expect.

Starting point is 00:04:17 It's been the highly volatile, explosive play offense where you're either going to have a turnover or a touchdown on every single drive. You're punting you're not kicking you're going to turn the ball over you're going to score a big touchdown it's very Carson Wentzian is what yeah I was gonna say big 2021 vibes yeah really really it is outside of Jonathan Taylor being that Jonathan Taylor even though I think he's kind of come back to form but um yeah I think I think the vibes for this offense have to be pretty good though because Shane Steichen just did what he did against the Cleveland Browns and honestly even against the Jaguars the week before he had a really good scheme for that game it's just Minshew was a lot worse in that game than he was against the Cleveland Browns uh so when you're seeing a defense like the Saints coming

Starting point is 00:04:57 into town it can't concern you as much as the Browns did last week because one they're not as good as the Browns defense and two look what you just did to the Browns did last week, because one, they're not as good as the Browns defense. And two, look what you just did to the Browns, you know, like you have to feel pretty confident. So I think, you know, the Colts should be able to run the ball fairly well. The running game is really getting going right now. They're doing a great job of mixing, you know, zone runs with gap runs and using their running back skill sets to great, great degree right now and getting these guys in areas where they can find success. I think Josh Downs is getting better and better every single week. And this is a prime matchup

Starting point is 00:05:28 for him, especially when you look at the outside corners that they're facing. Marshawn Lattimore, Alante Taylor, really good players on the outside. They're going to be locking it down with Pierce and Pittman. Downs is kind of the guy in the middle of the field yet again, where you feel like he can have a really big game because the Saints are a little bit vulnerable over the middle of the field, especially in that slot corner area. So I think if you lean on the run game, lean on Josh Downs in the passing game and kind of do what worked last week, they should be able to put up some pretty good points this week. I'm not saying they're going to put up 38 again because that would be insane. But I think that the signs are good for this Colts offense right now.

Starting point is 00:06:02 I think things are going well outside of the turnovers, which are obviously a big issue. But aside from that, they are moving the ball well. They're getting the ball down the field. They're really high in explosive play rate right now. And a lot of players are playing a lot better as of late. So I'm feeling pretty good about this matchup, much better than I felt going into last week's matchup. Yeah, some of the key things I'm looking at is this really feels like a big

Starting point is 00:06:23 Jonathan Taylor game to me. You know, Zach Moss, I mean, he was a limited participant Thursday after missing Wednesday. So it feels like he will probably play. But regardless, I think Taylor is going to continue to eat into more of that role in the backfield. We've seen his snaps increase each week. So I think that's going to be a big one for anyone who watched Crossover Thursday with me and Ross Jackson from Locked on Saints. He was pretty concerned about that.

Starting point is 00:06:51 Pittman, I think they're going to make it a point to try and get him. But I really think Josh Downs is like almost the assumed unspoken guy who's going to be a playmaker because he just keeps getting better and better and ascending. And at one point, you know, whether it was in the preseason or just early in the season, he went from being, you know, a lot of just quick stuff, all this to only occasionally getting downfield stuff. Now it seems like with regularity, he's getting downfield and making, stretching the field and getting chunk plays. and that is going to be a really important element so uh the saints deep pass defense is pretty interesting in that facet and

Starting point is 00:07:31 i think it's because of their their quality defensive backs they're fourth against the pass only allowing 187 yards overall but they only have 13 sacks which is near the bottom of the league so i think it's it's a pretty good opportunity for a guy like Gardner Minshew to take what the defense gives him. So I think there's going to be things there, especially with a slot receiver like Josh Downs. I think there's going to be some opportunities there. And if you take away those turnovers,

Starting point is 00:07:59 like he's actually played some pretty decent ball, at least last week. If you take away the turnovers, the thing that you cannot take away because they're that important in the NFL. But yeah, if you take away the turnover, see the play, it's a pretty good ball. But I do think, like you said, this is a great week for, and I know analytics people are going to hate me, but the run-run pass, you know,

Starting point is 00:08:16 get Jonathan Taylor involved on the early downs, get you into third and manageable feet downs and Pittman to get those first downs. And, you know, if you have to turn out a couple 8, 9, 10 play drives to get down and get a field goal or get some points, that's a positive drive against a good Saints defense, especially against a defense offense that has been throwing a play.

Starting point is 00:08:34 So, you know, I'm all for, you know, getting this offense just moving, getting them on schedule and not turning the ball over this week. I think that'll be really big for this Colts offense. Yeah, I mean, part of me, I mean, knock on wood, again, part of me says that it can't happen three weeks in a row, can it? But, like, again, if we're rolling back the clock here to 2021, like, it can happen a lot. Or 2022.

Starting point is 00:08:58 2022. Exactly. Because Matt Ryan was uncharacteristically giving when it came to turnovers. But we got a lot more for you guys here in a minute. We're going to flip the script, look at the defense. And on paper, this Saints offense is pretty loaded, but just hasn't really lived up to expectations yet. Colts defense, you know, they could have a little bit of a rebound as well.

Starting point is 00:09:21 They are banged up too. We'll get to that in just a minute. Snap into action this NFL season with FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. That's $200 in bonus bets, win or lose. If you've been thinking about joining FanDuel, there's no better time to get in on the action. The app is incredibly easy to use. There's a wide range of betting options, including spreads, player props, over-unders, and more. There's something for everyone.

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Starting point is 00:10:21 FanDuel, official partner of the NFL. And football season is here, and Locked On is kicking up our coverage with Locked On NFL Kickoff Live. Every Friday, Locked On will go live at 2 p.m. Eastern time on every Locked On NFL YouTube channel. Hosts Tanitra Batiste, Jarvis Davis, and Kyle Krabs will break down every game on the NFL slate

Starting point is 00:10:40 to get you ready for your team's matchup, your fantasy lineups, your betting angles, and more. Plus, get the in-depth local analysis from our stable NFL hosts around the country who know these teams better than anyone else. Find Locked on NFL kickoff live every Friday at 2 p.m. Eastern time on any Locked on NFL YouTube channel. All right, Jake. So getting into this Colts defense matchup with the Saints offense,

Starting point is 00:11:03 it's kind of similar to last week where you're more concerned about the other side of the ball going into the matchup saying hey the Colts are going against this volunteer defense but you know the offense they're facing is is a pretty exploitable matchup you know it's a matchup where you know the Colts offense or the Colts defense should have some success but as we saw last week even with the tons of turnovers like I'm not saying the defense was completely at fault for 39 points given up they still didn't get off the field enough against PJ Walker uh led Brown's offense now this this Saints offense obviously the talent is there there's there's talent but the play calling is obviously not there the

Starting point is 00:11:41 quarterback play has not been there whatsoever this year the synergy has not been there on their offense so again I don't want to say get right game for the defense because that should have been last weekend's PJ Walker and and and uh the Browns starting quarterback but uh this should be like a get right game if the Colts don't turn the ball over on offense on the other side which is a big if but this should be a get right game because it's another game where it's like look the offense you're facing and especially the quarterback you're facing is just it's just not it. You know, it's just not it right now. Yeah, I think they're going through a little bit of an identity issue at the moment. The Saints are.

Starting point is 00:12:16 And, you know, again, Ross talked about and you just mentioned this, this energy there between Derek Carr and the receivers just ain't it. They've had to have some tough conversations, you know, some, some, some really like off the field, we need to figure this out type of stuff because they're, they're just not hitting it. So with that in mind and them having lost like four of the last five games, do they just like kind of hit restart and go with like the things that these guys do best you know for Michael Thomas he's the the slant machine basically but I think a big problem is like

Starting point is 00:12:51 Rashid Shahid and Chris Olave those are guys who like can really burn you deep and Carr just doesn't necessarily have that like that's not his game like he could do it if a guy is very open but like hitting a guy in stride and you know all that that's it's game. Like he could do it if a guy's very open, but like hitting a guy in stride and you know, all that, that's, it's almost like the quarterback doesn't necessarily fit all the pieces they have. So on, I'm not going to totally discount them because like, we've seen all these guys hurt the Colts before pretty much. But defensively for me, my concern with the Colts is like Juju Brents with the quad. He hasn't been practicing, so it looks pretty unlikely that he would be out there. So you're hoping for a bounce back from Daryl Baker.

Starting point is 00:13:34 You've got, of course, I can't remember his first name now, Amir Speed. Amir Speed. Is that the new guy? Yeah. So Speed, does he get out there at all? Tony Brown, what does the secondary look like? And like, can they scheme up ways for like Chris Olave, who's incredibly talented and despite his arrest is supposed to be playing.

Starting point is 00:13:54 Like, I don't think that's going to be an issue. Uh, he was arrested for speed and we've all been there. Right. Um, not, not speeding that way, not speeding that way. Jake, we would, we would not be playing this weekend if we were arrested for that kind of thing. But no, I am looking at it with the outside cornerback rotation. I'm curious to see what the Colts go this week because I just don't think a winning strategy is Daryl Baker Jr.

Starting point is 00:14:19 out there for the entire game. The Colts typically don't rotate at corner. So typically the guy that we're going to see out there on snap one is going to be the guy we see there throughout the entire game. You know, the Colts typically don't rotate at corner. So typically the guy that we're going to see out there on snap one is going to be the guy we see there throughout the entire game. Like when Jalen Jones had a good off season, he didn't really rotate in until there were injuries in front of him. And now he's playing some really good football for the Colts. Only four receptions allowed in three games that he started on the outside. So Jalen Jones is going to be a starter this week. He's going to be a solid starter. He's going to do some good things for the Colts, but what are they going to do on the other outside quarter?

Starting point is 00:14:46 I still think the best strategy is getting Kenny Moore back on the outside and having Tony Brown start the slot or vice versa. Tony Brown on the outside, even I was going to say too, I think I'm a little more comfortable with Brown. Yeah. Which, whichever,

Starting point is 00:14:59 like whatever way Brown is on the field or crosses in the slot or, or whatever you're going to do with that, put Blackman down in the slot again and put cross at safety, like any way to not have Darryl Baker Jr. on the field, because here's the thing. I was really high on Darryl Baker Jr. coming into the year. And I do think for the most part last week, he had a fine game until that last drive. But you can't be you can't be playing poorly and have the target on your back from refs. The referees are

Starting point is 00:15:25 targeting him right now you saw that on that last drive last week they're just glaring at him and anytime he touches a receiver they're throwing a flag right now and he's not playing particularly well either so there's just really no reason to have him out there it's just a liability no matter what he does so that is obviously the biggest storyline for the colts is it doesn't matter what the saints offense is doing. If Darrell Baker Jr. is out there playing like he did on that final drive or getting targeted by refs like he was on that final drive, the Colts defense is not going to be in a good place to win this game. But overall, I do like this matchup for the Colts defense.

Starting point is 00:15:57 The Saints offensive line has not been particularly good. The last couple of weeks have been really injured. Derek Carr, when it comes to facing pressure or uh trying to work around pressure has been really poor throughout his entire career Gus Bradley knows Derek Carr and obviously you saw that in this last matchup last year where the Colts defense had one of their like brightest games of the second half of the season like second half the season was brutal for the Colts defense but they were really good in that game against against that uh that uh Raiders offense so I think a lot of things point to a Colts victory this weekend,

Starting point is 00:16:27 but it really comes down to what this Colts defense can do in terms of outside corner play. Can they stop the run in Alvin Kamara? And will their offense, again, on the other side of the ball, not turn the ball over? That's the biggest thing for the Colts, because if they can just do those couple things or they can perform well in those areas,

Starting point is 00:16:42 then they should be able to win this game. Yeah, Yeah. The, the, the passing game is just, that's such a huge question, Mark. But I mean, I liked that you brought up Gus Bradley's track record against Derek Carr. Cause like that is important. It does play a role. And we see some of these marquee Gus Bradley games, like where he just puts together a genius plan against guys that he has a track record against. So I'm looking forward to that. But one thing that could be iffy, obviously no Grover Stewart and Eric Johnson has been down the first two days of practice. What's this run game going to look like against Alvin Kamara and Jamal Williams? Like, I know those guys aren't in their prime necessarily anymore, but like they're capable of like the Colts, most vulnerable spots can be right up the middle and those guys can,

Starting point is 00:17:31 can make some plays there. So I'm kind of worried about the saints getting ahead and down in distance. Cause obviously that's going to be the best way to control things offensively. I think that's going to be the key. Like Taven, Brian is going to have to ratchet it down. Hey, maybe getting McTelvin Aguimo is actually a blessing in disguise because I think he's better than Eric Johnson and Taven Bryant against defense.

Starting point is 00:17:53 I do too. I was talking about last week in the press box. I was like, Aguimo is a guy I would get up right away. Yeah. So maybe Eric Johnson's injury is kind of a blessing in disguise. You can get Aguimo up, get him some snaps. And it's like, like hey we have a better run defender here than what we had in taven brian or eric johnson so uh we'll see what the colts do there but i do like this matchup for their defense and they need to get right game and i think derrick carr traditionally this year has

Starting point is 00:18:17 been the quarterback to get right against so i'm optimistic about the colts defense we'll see what happens uh but coming up we're going to talk about our final thoughts on this game. You know, do the Colts bounce back in a big way this week? Does their offense avoid the turnover bug? We'll talk about that here coming up in just a second. And prize picks is the most fun I've had winning up to 25 times my money this football season. You just select two or more players, pick more or less on their projected stats, and place your entry. PrizePix is really simple to play. I can make my picks and submit my entry in less than 60 seconds.

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Starting point is 00:20:28 I will vouch for those tacos being among the best in the city. Those were for real. And then Bigwoods just down the street from Tacos and Tequila. Actually going there Thursday night. So really looking forward to that. That's always good food there. Always good beer. Really looking forward to that.

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Starting point is 00:21:19 And like, I know you are. I don't, like, I need to see them quit shooting themselves in the foot first or for not just a couple of them to be doing so. I still do have them winning. So my pick with Ross on Thursday was 23 to 21 Colts. I would be more confident in the defense if it weren't for turnovers from the offense. I don't want the offense putting the defense't for turnovers from the offense. I don't want the offense putting the defense in a tough spot all the time. So 23 to 21 Colts, but if they clean up the turnovers, I could easily seeing it being like 23, 10 or 13. Like, I think this could be a

Starting point is 00:21:58 really good performance from the Colts defense. I just need to know that the offense isn't going to screw them over basically. Yeah. Shane Steichen has been near perfect this year. He's done a lot of really great things for this Colts offense. And for them to be going from their starting quarterback, who's this athletic, big arm freak of a prospect in Anthony Richardson, to their backup quarterback, who is not that at all, but as a veteran guy who typically knows what he's doing and still keeping the explosive play rate, still keeping the points per game up still keeping a lot of good positive things going with this offense I think he deserves a lot of credit but on top of that you have seen some rookie mistakes you saw some of the mishandling at the end of the first half this past week

Starting point is 00:22:37 you saw the screen to Marley Cox before the 60-yard field goal attempt stuff like that there have been some things with Shaneane steichen where it has been less than ideal so i want to see a really complete great game from him i want to see him really scheme around this saints defense without putting his quarterback or his offense into bad situations but i think he can do it i have all the optimism in the world for shane steichen now i don't know if i have all the optimism in the world for gardner minchu but i do have some optimism that hey gardner minchu for a majority of his career has not turned the ball over yeah okay he's fumbled the ball a lot in his career I think that's always going to be there but he hasn't thrown the picks

Starting point is 00:23:12 traditionally in his career hopefully the last two weeks are kind of more outlier type games and get back to not throwing interceptions and then the Colts offensive line can maybe just keep him from getting hit because I do think the fumbles are just always going to be a thing with him. He's got like one fumble per start in his career or something or one fumble per game in his career. So those are always going to be a thing with Gardner Minshew. You have to kind of live with those and hopefully your offensive line can jump on those fumbles when he does fumble. But for the most part, I want to see him get back to being Gardner Minshew in terms of just not turning the ball over, keeping things in front, staying ahead of the sticks and keeping that success rate going on offense. I love the explosive play rate. I will happily take 38 points again this week. Don't get me wrong. I love 38 points. I love explosions. I love 60 yard passes to steady and just complete game from the offense.

Starting point is 00:24:05 I don't want to see these highs and lows, high variance from each snap with the offense where you're going to go three and out, turn the ball over or score a big touchdown. I want to see just more steady, complete drives where you're getting points and keeping that Saints offense off the field and keeping your defense fresh on the other side of the ball. You play some complimentary football this week. Keep your defense actually like liking you guys throughout the week, because I feel like the Colts defense has

Starting point is 00:24:27 not been happy with the Colts offense in terms of just the short fields they've been given. But I like the Colts in this game as well. I have them 26-20. I want to see a little bit more from the defense in this one for sure, but I just think this Colts offense right now for what Shane Steichen is able to do with them, I don't want to say they're like unstoppable or anything like that, but they're able to just move the ball no matter who they're playing against, which is nice to see. And I think they're going to complete they're going to compete really well in this game and come out on top. I like it. Sustain those nice, fruitful drives. When I when I kind of pour over my crystal ball, I see Jonathan Taylor being very effective, putting them ahead early and drives and Michael Pittman Jr. And Josh Downs kind of feasting on those chain moving plays.

Starting point is 00:25:11 I think they're both going to get quite a few targets. This could be one where like Alec Pierce, if he's going up against Paulson Adebo downfield, Adebo can be kind of feast or famine. He's got some nice moments, but he can be grabby too. Can maybe draw down an important downfield a debo can be kind of feast or famine he's got some nice moments but he can be grabby too uh can maybe draw down an important downfield uh holding or dpi call against alec pierce or something that could be a critical element that you can never factor into it going ahead uh but defensively just the secondary taking advantage of derrick carr's lack of chemistry with these receivers so far, especially downfield. Like Julian Blackman's interception against Deshaun Watson last week is a perfect example of something I'm talking about.

Starting point is 00:25:52 Like just seeing the quarterback's brain biscuits turning way before he even lets the ball loose. Like stuff like that. I think there are some opportunistic players on that Colts defense. And you'd also love to see the sack numbers kind of ratchet up as well. I think Derek Carr is a guy you can get in a bind. You mentioned throwing pressure at him. He doesn't always fare well in that instance. So that's what I'm picturing when I see this game. Yeah. One more parting shot I want to throw before I close this out here is that, you know, this is a big game where the Colts need to win the trenches. And I know we've said this a lot this year but when the Colts win this year it's been the games

Starting point is 00:26:28 where they've won the trenches look at that Tennessee game they dominated the trenches on both sides of the ball uh look at the Texans game dominated both sides of the ball in that one um look at the Ravens game obviously dominate that one as well in the trenches they need to continue that dominance in this one against the Saints because the Saints offensive line is vulnerable their defensive line has some players but again pretty vulnerable especially when you They need to continue that dominance in this one against the Saints because the Saints offensive line is vulnerable. Their defensive line has some players, but again, pretty vulnerable, especially when you look at the talent on the Colts offensive line. This needs to be a game where the Colts set the tone early that,

Starting point is 00:26:54 hey, we're going to run the ball on offense and we're going to stuff the run and get after your quarterback on defense. Really win up front in the trenches and just establish that's going to be the flow of the game early and often. I think the Colts can do it. I think they have the talent on both sides of the ball to do it in this matchup. But you guys let us know in the comment section who you think takes this one. Jake and I are feeling optimistic about the Colts.

Starting point is 00:27:14 Maybe that's misplaced optimism after putting a 38 on the Cleveland Browns, but we shall see this weekend. And if you guys don't already, make sure you're following us at Locked on Colts, at Jake Arthur NFL, and at Zach H Hicks to all on Twitter. Also subscribe to us on YouTube or every list of your podcasts. We'd love your guys rings reviews, and we'll see you guys back here on Sunday after the game, not bright and early on Sunday after the game.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts' Josh Downs is X-Factor Against New Orleans Saints

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