Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts' Michael Pittman Jr. a Fantasy League Winner Through End of Season

Starting point is 00:00:00 There are five regular season games left for the Colts, but you may not have as much time when it comes to your fantasy football playoffs. How can these Colts help you, though? Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right. Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network,

Starting point is 00:00:45 your team every day. And today's show is brought to you by DoorDash. This morning, I placed my very own DoorDash order to get a meal from a local favorite here while I'm in Cincinnati to cover this Colts-Bengals game, and it was absolutely flames. So a big thank you to DoorDash for brunch. Place your order today using promo code LOCKED23. Stay tuned later in the episode to hear more from our friends at DoorDash for brunch. Place your order today using promo code LOCKED23. Stay tuned later in the episode to hear more from our friends at DoorDash.

Starting point is 00:01:09 What's up, everybody? As you heard, I'm here in Cincinnati. About to cover this Colts-Bengals game tomorrow. And so apologies in advance for the acoustics. This is not my normal setup. But today, I wanted to do something a little different. I'm going to go kind of a big picture view of the Colts in these final five games. Also, it's been a little bit since we've talked

Starting point is 00:01:31 fantasy football. So I wanted to kind of join those two things together. Just kind of give you some things what to expect over these final five games, which fantasy players you may want to tack on and which ones you might want to avoid. So first up, obviously the Colts face the Bengals on Sunday. This is a defense that, man, it's, there's not a lot of good stuff that you can say about them. But in terms of what the Colts offense faces, the Bengals are 32nd overall in defense, 22nd in scoring, 28th on third downs. But they are tied for eighth in takeaways. They have 19 of those. So that's kind of a defense that's just very vulnerable everywhere.

Starting point is 00:02:19 But they're somehow able to come up with some turnovers enough to make them a 500 football team and kind of at least do something to do their part to match what the offense has typically been able to do. When you look at the passing game specifically, they are 27th against the pass and tied for last in yards per attempt. So yards per attempt is usually the more accurate indicator. It's how many passing yards are given up on average per pass attempt. Again, tied last at 8.1. That's a pretty damning number. And it legitimizes the 27th overall ranking.

Starting point is 00:03:02 The Bengals are tied for the fifth most interceptions in the league, however, with 12. In the middle of the road, tied for 15th overall in sacks with 32. So generally, it's a defense that's going to give up a lot of yards through the air and on the ground. But they will come up with some sacks a couple of games, get a turnover here or there. It's primarily going to be an interception. Looking at the run game, 27th against the run and tied for the second highest yards per carry. So what we said with the passing game is pretty much the same with the run game.

Starting point is 00:03:36 Yards per carry is going to be the more accurate indicator of a run defensive ranking. Again, 4.8. So it legitimizes how bad they are against the run so you're looking at a defense here that is bad against the run bad against the pass and not necessarily consistently enough making big plays like they come up with them randomly sometimes in opportunistic spots but in general it's it's not been great Looking at a fantasy perspective, the Bengals give up the second most points to tight ends, 12.9 fantasy points per game. The ninth most to quarterbacks, 18.8 fantasy points per game. The ninth most to kickers with nine points per game.

Starting point is 00:04:21 Now, when we're entering a spot here where we're getting really, really close to the fantasy playoffs, people tend to discount kickers, but at nine points per game, if your kicker is going to give you eight, nine, 10 plus points per game, every little thing matters in that instance. So every point that you can get in fantasy don't discount kickers pay attention to them some of the matchups really do matter uh some some things that have been uh troublesome for opponents going against the bengals from a fantasy perspective they have only allowed three opposing receivers to reach 20 points uh and 20 points for you know we're going off half ppr here it's not as hard to reach that.

Starting point is 00:05:06 You know what I mean? Like, look at what Michael Pittman has done recently. Guys getting 10 catches, 100 plus yards everywhere. So that is something to keep an eye on because they do pretty well against receivers in general. Looking at this matchup, who are some guys you might want to play? Zach Moss, of course, looking for a big rebound off kind of a slow game last week. Michael Pittman Jr., again, I know I just said that the Bengals have not given up many gaudy games to receivers yet. And that's not even really what I'm expecting from Pittman because he's not a big touchdown scorer.

Starting point is 00:05:41 But you can't deny, you know, the guy's on a hot streak. He's had eight, nine, ten catches several weeks in a row, 100 yards. So if this was just a ho-hum receiver who is more dependent on big plays, that would be one thing. But in a PPR setting, Michael Pittman is being fed the ball. So to me, that's almost matchup proof, at least in one like this against the Bengals. I would also throw Matt Gay out there. And then tight end, it's arguably the worst

Starting point is 00:06:13 position, at least among the position players in fantasy football. If you feel like you want to roll the dice with a Kylan Granson, probably wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I mean, you can at least capitalize on a good matchup in a position where there's usually only like five solid plays per week. If you want Granson, maybe he's the safest of the tight ends. That doesn't mean that Mo Alleycox or Drew Ogletree won't go and have a nice game. But Granson as the leading receiver among Colts tight ends is the safest of the group.

Starting point is 00:06:47 And then who to sit in this one? Honestly, I can't declare that you should sit anyone. I mean, use good judgment and, you know, use context in comparison to the other players you have on your roster. But that's just how the defense is. I'll kind of pick it up a little bit. I wanted to emphasize the Bengals since they're playing on Sunday. But looking at the Steelers, that's a defense that's a little better.

Starting point is 00:07:13 They're sixth in scoring overall. They're tied for sixth in red zone defense, and they're tied for fifth in takeaways, and that includes interceptions, also tied fifth with 12. From a fantasy perspective, they give up the seventh fewest points to quarterbacks, only 14.5 fantasy points per game there. Who I would play in that matchup? You know, the Steelers, with all these teams, I'm pointing out stats that they are

Starting point is 00:07:42 generally either top 10 or bottom 10 in. With so much parity in the NFL, you tend to only focus on teams or statistics that are particularly good or bad. Everything else is just totally middle of the road and almost able to ride off. But who to play in this one? Zach Moss, Michael Pittman Jr., of course, and then Matt Gay. This one, again, at home, that's a good matchup for the Colts, even though they haven't been on that great at home. When you're looking for points and yards, that should help.

Starting point is 00:08:16 Who to sit? You're probably not in a position to want to start Gardner Minshew anyways, but with how banged up quarterbacks have been around the league, sometimes your hands are tied behind your back and you have to make a move. I wouldn't do it in this one. Again, they're tied for six in the red zone, the Steelers are, so that means for a guy who doesn't pass deep a lot like Minshew, that's going to totally limit his opportunities to score those short touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:08:44 And then he's the guy that turns the ball over and the Steelers take the ball away. So I would avoid that one. Looking ahead to the following week, week 16 at the Falcons. This is another pretty good defense. They're 10th overall, 7th in points per game. They are first in the red zone and they're second on third down. So this is a, this is probably the matchup for fantasy wise that I feel worst about for the Colts. They're also on the ground. They're tied for seventh in yards per carry allowed 3.9

Starting point is 00:09:17 against the past. They're tied for ninth in yards per attempt, only 6.7. They are, if you're looking at a weak spot, they are only tied for 25th in sacks. They have just 26 on the season and only seven interceptions this year, ranks 23rd. So there's some pretty easy correlation with this because of how good they are in crunch situations, red zone and third down particularly. They do give up the fifth most points to kickers. That makes all the sense in the world because if you're not giving up touchdowns in the red zone and third down particularly they do give up the fifth most points to kickers that makes all the sense in the world because if you're not giving up touchdowns in the red zone you're giving up field goals and then same thing with uh they're giving up the sixth most points to the tight end position they're kind of shutting down things with running backs and wide receivers so tight ends are

Starting point is 00:10:00 the recipients of a lot more of those outlets a lot lot of that is going to be PPR points. So there's that. Second fewest points to running backs. Not great. 13.9 fantasy points per game to the whole position. And then the fifth fewest to wide receivers. 23.9 fantasy points per game to the whole position. If you've got to start someone in this matchup,

Starting point is 00:10:22 I would look at Kylan Granson and Matt Gay. Matt Gay is someone who's almost matchup proof anyways, someone who you almost want to start pretty much every week. Uh, so there's already that, and this is a really good matchup for him. So this is one where I would almost book it. Matt Gay is going to get at least 10 points. Kylan Granson, again, the Falcons give up some points to tight ends. Colts tight ends don't get the ball in high volume, but if you're looking at big plays, Kylan Granson might be the guy there. He's had a couple big plays in the last couple weeks as well. Who to sit? Zach Moss, I feel pretty comfortable saying to sit him, and I don't feel good about Michael Pittman Jr.'s

Starting point is 00:11:03 matchup in this one. The Falcons have a nice secondary. A.J. Terrell is a nice lockdown cornerback, one of the perennial underrated players in the NFL. So I really don't like this matchup for the Colts. Beyond that, the Raiders. This is kind of another one like the Bengals, except with a worse offense. This is one where anyone in fair game, pretty much.

Starting point is 00:11:27 Just tee off on them. But again, we're looking at the Colts offense. So the Raiders defense is tied 26th on third downs, 27th in the red zone. That's two areas for the Colts, especially if you've been listening and watching Zach lately on here. He has really been emphasizing what the Colts can do if you've been listening and watching Zach lately on here, he has really been emphasizing what the Colts can do to correct the issues that they've had, because that's two weak spots for the Colts. They're down in red zone. So the Colts weakness is also the Raiders defensive

Starting point is 00:11:57 weakness. So something's got to give there. The Raiders are also 25th against the run and tied for 23rd in yards per carry. So again, a truly bad defense against the run. Fantasy-wise, they give up the six most points to the running back position at 22.4 fantasy points per game. Tenth fewest against quarterbacks, though, 15.8 fantasy points per game. Part of that is Max Crosby, and I think part of that is teams capitalize on the run game. So their quarterbacks don't have to do as much. So in this one, I think Gardner Minshew is an okay play. I would not be scared off from starting Minshew in this one, as much as you never want to go into a game, having him as your starting quarterback and fantasy, you could do much worse

Starting point is 00:12:44 in this one. Zach Moss, go ahead and throw him back in the starting lineup for this one. And then Michael Pittman Jr., that's another one where he should do really, really well. And just like with the Bengals, who do I not feel good about or who would I sit? I think pretty much anyone is fair game, again, with good judgment and using context with the rest of your roster. And then rounding out final game of the season, this is a big one. This one that could be a shootout Colts and Texans. Now the Texans are 10th in red zone scoring. So that could lend itself to the Colts having to have more big plays. You know, Alec Pierce, that seems to be opening up a little

Starting point is 00:13:20 bit more recently. The Texans are ninth against the run and third in yards per carry. So that's a good run defense. It's not necessarily a strong matchup for Zach Moss. If somehow Jonathan Taylor is back for this matchup, that definitely helps the Colts. But if we're just talking Zach Moss, I don't know the Colts have enough firepower in the backfield to really help with that.

Starting point is 00:13:43 However you go, the back part of the defense for Houston, they're 26th against the pass and tied for 27th in yards per attempt, so they are not great through the air. I mean, if you look at what the Colts were able to do against the Texans back early in the season, we kind of got glimpses of that. Much different team still from the early portion of the season to where they are now, because the Texans are a really good team. Colts and Texans are pretty much walking neck and neck throughout the season,

Starting point is 00:14:10 both at 7 and 5. But they are tied for 23rd in sacks with 27. That one, I don't want to say it's a misleading stat, because I do think Houston is a team that gets more pressure than what their sack numbers indicate. Especially you look at a guy like Will Anderson looks like he was very much worthy of a top three pick there. So I wouldn't totally discount their low number of stacks again, because they're going to put pressure and make guys like Gardner Minshew make quick errant passes and poor decisions. From a fantasy perspective, the Texans give up the fifth most points to quarterbacks at 19.3 fantasy points per game and the fifth most to tight ends.

Starting point is 00:14:52 Who I would play in this one, I mentioned the sacks and the pressure, but statistically that's what you're looking at, and that's all that matters in fantasy. I think Gardner is an okay play in this one. We also saw what Anthony Richardson was able to do on the ground against the Texans in that game before his concussion. Had a couple rushing touchdowns of over 10 yards. Gardner obviously is not Anthony Richardson on the ground, but we saw just a week or two later that Minshew had his own game where he had a couple big rushing touchdowns. I forget which game that was, but it's something that

Starting point is 00:15:31 Shane Steichen has in his back. Gardner is agile and mobile enough to do things like that. So again, who to play? Gardner, Michael Pittman Jr. Go ahead, throw him in there. And Matt Gay, that's another big one to close out the year. I would not feel super comfortable about Zach Moss in this one, like I mentioned earlier. So looking ahead, what does the Colts defense have to face? And it's a lot more advantageous. It's an indicator that these guys could really, really crank up the heat because they're not really facing a murderer's row of quarterbacks or offenses in general.

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Starting point is 00:18:18 The Colts defense has been a really, really good fantasy play throughout the year. That's a top five, top 10 unit, depending on whatever format you play. I know every site tends to have different scoring for defenses, but still you're looking at turnovers, sacks, blocks, touchdowns, all that stuff. The Colts tend to be able to rack those up, especially, you know, they rank second in the league right now with 42 sacks. But looking at this Bengals game, they're facing a backup quarterback in Jake Browning.

Starting point is 00:18:49 On paper, that's a big plus for the Colts. However, realistically, you look at how Browning performed last Monday night against the Jaguars, and it's kind of scary. It was enough for fans who like to jump the gun. I've seen this multiple times this week. Why do they need Joe Burrow if Jake Browning is going to play like that? I think that's an absolutely monstrous thing to say, but that's just to give you a gauge of the performance that Jake Browning has been putting on.

Starting point is 00:19:20 He's only 1-1 in these two starts, but still, I don't want to discount Browning. If I'm the Colts, I want to put pressure on him like they're facing Joe Burrow. I want to prepare like I'm facing Joe Burrow, even though it's going to be Jake Browning. So the Bengals offense, they're eighth in red zone scoring, 62.5%. And they have the fewest turnovers in the entire league. Now, these numbers are going to be skewed, of course, because you're looking at an offense that has evolved throughout the year.

Starting point is 00:19:53 Very, very clunky early on. Joe Burrow has come back from that calf strain. And then you go in, I think he re-injures the calf, and then they start to really hit their stride, and then they start to look like the Bengals offense again. And then by that time, Joe Burrow goes out, and now you have this young journeyman quarterback basically under center. So it's an offense that numbers to me, I take them with a grain of salt.

Starting point is 00:20:20 You almost have to look at just what they've done in the last one or two games. But still, statistically, they are near the bottom of the league in sacks surrendered, which has been a problem for their offense for years now. They've given up 33 sacks. And in seven of 12 games this year, they have given up at least three sacks. Now, Colts in the last four games have 21 sacks their own. They're on a tear. They're on pace to break their franchise record. So I really, really, really like this matchup for the Colts. It would not make any sense in the world to me if the Colts can't get in the back field and disrupt Browning, which I think they're going to have to do in order to win this game. And then the Bengals offensively dead last in rushing. And then they are 23rd in yards per carry, which to me that says they don't run the ball as much as they could. But when they do

Starting point is 00:21:19 run it, they're not very bad, if that makes sense. Like their low numbers are more because they don't run the ball that much rather than the fact that they're just bad. And then you saw last week, Joe Mixon had two touchdowns against the Jaguars. So Joe Mixon, I feel like always has decent performances against the Colts. So there's really no area of the Bengals offense that I want to take lightly if I'm the Colts. So looking to the next week, Steelers, they're going to have another backup quarterback most likely in Mitchell Trubisky.

Starting point is 00:21:51 Kenny Pickett has his ankle injury and is expected to be out for a little bit. The Steelers offense, whether it's Pickett or Trubisky, has not been great. Again, it's another team I don't want to totally discount because the Steelers did come into Lucas Oil Stadium and beat the Colts last year. Pickett came on and turned it on in the fourth quarter and really just changed everything. But for their body of work this season,

Starting point is 00:22:16 they ranked 26th offensively, 28th in scoring. They have had 20 points in only four of their 12 games this year so they've genuinely had issues putting points on the board uh they don't turn the ball over very much yet or uh very much tied just for fourth 11 turnovers it's not that bad uh so they take care of the ball generally they just don't know what to do with it, basically. Obviously, we know offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired earlier this year as well. They're 29th in red zone scoring and 25th on third down and 28th in passing. So they're all right rushing the ball. You know, Nadja Harris is pretty good.

Starting point is 00:22:59 Jalen Warren, that's someone who people have been calling for to start over. Nadja Harris would be the primary ball carrier out of the backfield. So their run game's not bad, but their passing game is. Generally, their offense is just not good. Now, we've seen from experience, if they really invest in George Pickens and make him a huge part of the game, then he can really do some damage. That's what happened last year in the Colts lost to the Steelers. So after that, you got the Colts and Falcons, another tumultuous quarterback situation.

Starting point is 00:23:34 Desmond Ritter starting right now. Now, although Arthur Smith earlier in the season said they're not going to play musical chairs with quarterback and they want the next guy they go to to be the starter the rest of the year. The Taylor Heineke experience did not go well. They lost all three of those starts. So they went back to Desmond Ritter. So you've got to keep in mind there at one point they felt they needed to not have him as their starter, but ultimately he was the best option. So they're probably not very comfortable with their quarterback situation.

Starting point is 00:24:05 That offense is 24th in scoring, and they've had three games this year under 14 points. So not great. Another team that has struggled to put points on the board, struggled to move the ball. They are sixth in rushing, however. They got some decent players there obviously bijan robinson is very exciting and probably underused uh just like people say bijan robinson's underused kyle pitts is underused um drake london so this seems to be an offense that isn't super productive and coaching appears to be part of it so i don't watch the Falcons enough to know that for sure. But just from all the people I know who cover the Falcons, people who watch the Falcons religiously,

Starting point is 00:24:52 kind of seems to be the vibe there. Also, in seven of their 12 games, they have given up at least three sacks. And that includes contests where they've given up six sacks and seven sacks. So again, with a Colts defensive front that's really been on a tear with sacks, and that includes contests where they've given up six sacks and seven sacks. So again, with a Colts defensive front that's really been on a tear with sacks, it looks like that should be a pretty good matchup for them. Week 17 versus the Raiders. So Purdue fans, you will be delighted to see Aidan O'Connell under center for them. He has started five of six games this year. He their new starter after Jimmy G was benched and

Starting point is 00:25:27 Josh McDaniels was fired the vibes are not not great over there with the Raiders I think it's on the up and up because the players would much rather play for Antonio Pierce rather than McDaniels but still the coaching wasn't the only issue there. They're 29th overall offensively, 27th in scoring. And this stat absolutely floored me. They've only scored 20 points once this year, and they have four games under 14 points. So again, this team cannot move the ball.

Starting point is 00:26:02 This team cannot score. It's a team that has Devontae Adams and Josh Jacobs on it. So that's – I don't know how that happens. They're tied for 27th in red zone scoring, 27th on third down. This team does turn the ball over, however. Tied for 26 in turnovers with 21. They only have two games without a turnover this year. They have five games where they have turned the ball over at least three times.

Starting point is 00:26:28 So they've had four games where they've given up four-plus sacks, including, again, a six-sack game and a seven-sack game, just like Atlanta. 31st in rushing and tied for last in yards per carry, again, for a team that has Josh Jacobs, I don't know how that happens. So really no part of the offense scares you in general. There are a couple of players that scare you. Again, Josh Jacobs is one of the better running backs in the league. Devontae Adams, still a top three receiver in the league.

Starting point is 00:27:04 Rookie tight end Michael Mayer is a very nice player. He's done some nice things when given an opportunity. Looking ahead to this final game, this one, this is probably the first one where I say steer clear of starting the Colts defense in fantasy. Now, a lot of you, if you're still playing in the final week of the season, probably not a great format, but there are going to be leagues still rolling at that time. Obviously, C.J. Stroud leads the league with 3,500 passing yards, 3,540. He's also overall got 23 touchdowns, just six turnovers, and he's a rookie. We saw what he did to the Colts defense earlier in the year. Him and Nico Collins exploded, and it was really the first opportunity

Starting point is 00:27:52 to make the Colts defense just look silly, and they did. They're sixth overall offensively, tenth in scoring. They don't turn the ball over either, just 11 this season. That's tied for the fourth fewest. Again, there's second and passing third and yards per attempt. They do get sacked in six of 12 games. They've given up at least three sacks.

Starting point is 00:28:17 They've had three games where they've given up at least five. The Colts got to CJ Stroud several times. I think it was at least four-5 in that first matchup. So we know they could do it. They don't run the ball well. They're 24th in rushing, and they're tied for 28th in yards per carry. So a genuinely poor team running the ball. Damian Pierce has been really banged up this season.

Starting point is 00:28:39 And then Devin Singletary is kind of just a guy, generally. One note I will make about this team, though, Tank Dell is now out for the season. And he's been a big part of C.J. Stroud's success. Not the only part. Stroud has still been just awesome, even when he's not passing to Dell, obviously. But Dell has been one of the bigger deep threat receivers in the entire NFL this season. And he is now his absence now kind of removes that element from the Texans offense. So last, we're going to kind of wrap all this up. And what does this mean for the final five weeks for you?

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Starting point is 00:30:36 that's pricepix.com slash locked on NFL and use code locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. Price picks. Daily fantasy sports made easy. All right, so let's look at this thing. This is obviously a long episode. Thank you for watching if you're still with me. I probably put more prep looking up stats into this episode than I have in months. So let's focus on the Colts offense in this one. So five games left. Three of their final five opponents, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Houston, are all top 10 in red zone defenses. So that one is pretty tough. That means they don't give up points.

Starting point is 00:31:19 So that kind of lends itself to Matt Gabe being a good option. Three of their five opponents, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas, however, have allowed at least five opposing running backs to get 15 fantasy points. Let's see. Cincinnati has actually done it seven times. So, again, hammer Zach Moss on this one. Two of the five opponents, Cincinnati and Atlanta, have allowed at least five opposing tight ends to get 10 plus fantasy points. Again,

Starting point is 00:31:51 that's a very shallow position. So if you're getting 10 points from your tight end, you're probably happy about it. In the last two weeks, Cincinnati has allowed Pat Fryermuth and Evan Ingram to combine for 18 receptions for 202 yards and a touchdown. So look at Evan Ingram from last week. Obviously, very, very athletic guy. But Kylan Granson can do some of those same things. So that's why I feel decent about Kylan Granson's chances this week. Just kind of picturing how Jacksonville was able to use Evan Ingram,

Starting point is 00:32:23 how he was able to get around the edge on that touchdown, Granson could be a pretty decent play this week. Looking at the Colts defense, this is where it gets good. I think the Colts defense could go on a dominant tear over the final course of the season. So three of their five opponents, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Houston, are all in the top five in turnovers. So I'll start with the good there.

Starting point is 00:32:49 Three of those teams just don't turn the ball over. So from a fantasy perspective, maybe not great from the Colts, but that's basically where the positives end for their opponents. Four of the five, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh are all bottom 13 scoring offense. So four of the bottom 13 teams in the league are Colts opponents. Three of the five, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas are bottom 12 teams on third down. So that, you know, the Colts getting pressure on those money downs. It's going to be a big one. Again, four of the five, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Houston are bottom 11 in fourth down attempt frequency.

Starting point is 00:33:35 All four are also bottom 11 in percentage, so they don't go for it very much, and when they do go for it, they don't convert. So if the Colts can get those third down, get off the field on third down, pretty likely that those opponents are not going to go for it on fourth down. And then three of the five opponents, Houston, Las Vegas, and Cincinnati are bottom 10 rushing offenses overall in yardage and in yards per carry. So the run defense that is getting Grover Stewart back now this week, they're going to finally be put in some advantageous situations there.

Starting point is 00:34:13 And then lastly, three of the five opponents, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh are bottom 10 and passing yards per attempt. So probably the offenses, offenses in general that are gonna not run the ball well and they kind of dig and dunk in the passing game so i really think the colts would have to screw this up royally on the defensive side of all in order to not just really take advantage of these quality quality matchups that they're getting. So I think that's it for us everydayers on this extended episode.

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