Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts MUST Take Advantage of Struggling Mac Jones/New England Patriots

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Indianapolis Colts must take advantage of a downed New England Patriots team this weekend. Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the day, this is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by PrizePix, the easiest and most exciting

Starting point is 00:00:45 way to play daily fantasy sports. Go to prizepix.com slash locked on NFL and use code all lowercase locked on NFL for a first deposit match up to $100. Hello everyone, I'm Zach Hicks, your favorite host here on Locked on Colts. Today I'm joined by Evan Lazar of Patriots.com, one of the best film guys in the game, does a great job breaking down everything that's going on with that Patriots team. And that's what we're going to do today. We're going to talk all New England Patriots get ready for this big matchup on Sunday. And if Evan's video is cutting out just a little bit for you guys on YouTube, it's because he's actually over there in Germany, you know,

Starting point is 00:01:18 getting ready for this game, having a blast out there. Evan, first off, before we jump into it, man, how's Germany and how's the fans out there? Yeah, I apologize for the hotel Wi-Fi if it's a little spotty, but Germany's been great. It's a really cool atmosphere here. As the game gets closer, it's a cool week where as we get closer to the game, more and more people are coming and you see more and more jerseys around town and things like that. And we've had some great fan events the last couple of nights that have been a ton of fun.

Starting point is 00:01:50 And you just see a lot of energy. And we were talking before we hit record here that both these teams, the Patriots especially, but both these teams are not exactly, you know, the Peyton Manning and Tom Brady era Colts and Patriots anymore. But you don't tell that to the people here. Like I'm telling you, the fans here, the European fans, it's not just Germany. I've met people from all over Europe that are here for the game, and they're all just really excited to watch and go to it

Starting point is 00:02:23 if they are lucky enough to have tickets, regardless of the fact that the matchup might not be as good as it once was when we were kids. Yeah, it's great. We're sending them Gardner Minshew versus Mac Jones out there in Germany, something to get really excited about for all those Germany fans. But we're going to talk about this Patriots offense to kind of kick off this show.

Starting point is 00:02:41 The Patriots offense obviously has been the more disappointing of the two sides for the Patriots of their offense and defense. The offense has definitely let down the defense a little bit more than the other way around. The Patriots offense right now is 28th in points four, which is 15 points per game as of right now through nine weeks. So they're struggling to score points.

Starting point is 00:03:00 I think only 24% of their offensive drives this year have ended in a score, which is the second worst in all of football right now. So they're just not score points. I think only 24% of their offensive drives this year have ended in a score, which is the second worst in all of football right now. So they're just not scoring points. Their overall efficiency is not great. 24th in net yards per pass attempt. 24th in rushing yards per attempt. So an inefficient offense that can't score points.

Starting point is 00:03:18 Evan, what's it been like covering this Patriots offense this season? Like an inefficient offense that can't score points. I think that's really how it's been. There just isn't a whole lot of anything dangerous or explosive or exciting about watching this offense week in and week out. They've been better of late. I say that lightly, but they haven't been. Rock bottom was obviously those two games against Dallas and New Orleans that

Starting point is 00:03:48 they lost 72 to three and only scored three points over two weeks. That was rock bottom. The last couple of weeks they've at least put some points on the board. Obviously the big win against Buffalo was the kind of pinnacle of it, but they've been able to score a little. I think what you see on film with this offense is a really thin margin of error for Mac Jones and for the passing attack because there just isn't a whole lot of opportunities created by the players at the skill position.

Starting point is 00:04:20 So we're here in New England. We're breaking down like three or four plays a game that mac jonesing where it's you know everything is getting super over analyzed over like two or three three or four type of place down the field that he missed an open receiver there you know had a bad throw here the route wasn't great there, like all these little, little things. And I think, you know, we were down in Miami a couple weeks ago and that Dolphins, the Dolphins didn't really have a great day offensively to start. They had a couple turnovers, two went through a bad pick early on

Starting point is 00:04:59 in that game. And then you look, right, like so all these offenses that I think you see around the league that are really clicking and are scoring a lot of points, they don't overanalyze three or four plays a game and say, you know, those are the reasons why we lost this day, because they're able to just create three or four plays a drive down the field versus maybe just a couple in an entire game. And that's where I think the Patriots are really at right now.

Starting point is 00:05:25 Bill O'Brien's done some nice things, but to put it frankly, he's trying to put lipstick on a pig with the personnel that they have, and he hasn't really been able to do it. So I think that there's some blame to go around. Most of the blame here, I would say, is directed at the quarterback for the most part. And Mack has definitely not played well well and he's missed some throws in the last couple of weeks that he should have made at a bad interception before the half against Miami.

Starting point is 00:05:52 And then last week, uh, there were opportunities on the film that he was just flat out missing reads, missing throws, things like that. So I think what you look at this offense is a chicken or the egg. Like, is it because they don't have Tyree kill and Jalen Waddle or AJ Brown and Devante Smith that they're not able to move the ball very consistently? Or is it because the quarterback is not very good? And I think that that's really what is a tough one, because you can kind of make a case for either direction.

Starting point is 00:06:20 Like you can talk me into either of those things being true. Yeah. And we're kind of seeing a similar situation here in Indy, which I mean, unfortunately it's with our backup though, with you guys, that's your starter. That's your guy that you're rolling into the season with, with our backup guy, we're seeing the similar thing where Gardner Minshew is having like 95% of

Starting point is 00:06:36 the time, a really good game. And then you'll get the back foot throw against pressure where it's a pick or the fumble where he should have seen the pressure coming. And you guys are seeing that with Mac Jones. One question I really had for you, though, is, you know, Bill O'Brien comes in this year expected to, I don't want to say like fix everything because he's a real offensive coordinator compared to what was going on last year at offensive coordinator with the Patriots. But Bill O'Brien comes in off the heels of a lot of success at Alabama and obviously with the Texans in the NFL. And, you know, again, the offense is still just not really flowing again.

Starting point is 00:07:11 It can be playmakers. It can be quarterback, the offensive line. But do you see him with his scheme? Do you see the potential for that to work at all this year? Or do you see it more as he's kind of calling plays a little scared of his quarterback of his weapons of his offensive line maybe not to the same degree that like we're seeing with like the Panthers but do you kind of see that a little bit with the Panthers or with the Patriots offense I think there were periods of time this season where that was certainly the case like coming off of those games I mentioned against the Dallas and New, there was a lot of conversations about benching Mac Jones. And I think the Patriots were really seriously considering it

Starting point is 00:07:49 after the New Orleans game where they got shut out at home by the Saints. It's a good defense the New Orleans has, but we're not talking about like the 85 Bears, right? You know, you'd be able to score some points in a home game against that team. And they weren't able to. But I think what the point has been is that they're they don't really trust any of their backups you know bailey zappy uh they have will on the roster now and those guys i just don't know they've with bill o'brien i i've liked some

Starting point is 00:08:17 of the schematic things that he's done and i i i try to say this a lot on our shows and sometimes people push back on me, but I really feel that this year the issues offensively are not necessarily that they don't have answers to the test. Now it's more about execution and that players going out there and actually making plays. Like there's a lot more sophistication to what they're doing. They have a legit RPO package. Now they have answers against blitz pressure, sophistication to what they're doing. They have a legit RPO package now.

Starting point is 00:08:45 They have answers against blitz pressure, whether it's checks or resetting things up front to pick up a blitz or site adjustments with routes and things like that. I can see that it's a professionally coordinated offense, whereas last year they'd get up to the line of scrimmage. Some team would send the blitz at them and it would just go unblocked and Mac would get sacked. And you're just, you know, kind of looking around like, does he not have like a alert system or anything that he can kind of check to

Starting point is 00:09:16 at the line of scrimmage to get out of this play? That's certainly not going to work. The players, the answer was that they really did strip the protection scheme and and they basically had it down to the studs to the point where they didn't types of answers so i think bill o'brien's providing them with more solutions especially in their drop back passing game but at the same time they're just the execution has just been all over the place. It's inconsistent.

Starting point is 00:09:46 That O'Brien uses every time we talk to him, which we get him weekly, inconsistent, inconsistent. That's what he's saying. There are plays that you can put up on the screen and say, oh, well, that was a really nice run play. Ramondre Stevenson hits a 64 yard touchdown last week against the commanders. That was a well-blocked, great executed run. Uh, Mack Jones threw a touchdown pass to Hunter Henry. That was a really nice play. Uh, but those things, you know, aren't

Starting point is 00:10:16 happening consistently enough. Yeah. Yeah. Coming up guys, if you guys are Patriots fans that are listening to this show, we're going to have a more optimistic segment coming up. If you guys are Colts fans, you know, again, a little something more to watch coming up after this break. Prize picks is the most fun I've had winning up to 25 times my money this football season. You just select two or more players, pick more or less on their projected stats and place your entry. With the basketball season here, you can now do a pick combo projection across football and basketball from the specials league a league created specifically for combo projections that includes two or more players from different sports or leagues for example if you're a big basketball fan and a big football fan go right now to prize

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Starting point is 00:13:22 germany getting ready for this colts and Patriots matchup. Now we're talking about the Patriots defense. Obviously, it's been a much brighter spot than the Patriots offense has been this year. You know, the Patriots offense doesn't really have many answers right now with their personnel, with their quarterback play, offensive line play. Their defense, though, it hasn't been good enough to carry this team. But like you can see at least there being some positives. And honestly, the defense has more excuses too than the offense right now with the amount of injuries they've had on defense obviously Christian Gonzalez out for the season they're they're highly touted first

Starting point is 00:13:53 round pick outstanding young corner but Evan what's your overall takeaway of this Patriots defense so far through nine weeks you know it's not the typical Bill Belichick defense but you know they're still doing some pretty decent things over there. Yeah, no, I think you summed it up really nicely there when you said that they're not good enough right now to carry this team to a better record. But that doesn't mean that they haven't put some good stuff out there because they have played well at times this season. You mentioned the two injuries I I personally think it's not you know an excuse for the team but uh losing Jude and Christian Gillespie in the same game down and I think was pretty much the the death sentence for this entire season I I think that is really where you felt not only did they lose those two guys they also got blown out in the game and I think you kind

Starting point is 00:14:43 of felt like that was a real tipping point for this team early on in the game and i think you kind of felt like that was a real tipping point for this team early on in the season and they've struggled to replace gonzalez now that's not to say that judan's not a big loss too but i think with the way that they're able to scheme pressure in the way that steve belichick and gerard mayo are very good with uh simulated pressures or creepers you know disguising rushes and things like that. Been able to get after the quarterback some, you know, a couple weeks ago. They really started to blitz a whole lot more. The last, I would say, three or four weeks, their blitz rate has really increased.

Starting point is 00:15:18 And they've come after guys. It worked against Josh Allen. That was like the big game where it all kind of came together. And I think that it hasn't worked as successfully the last couple of weeks. And what we're seeing in the back end specifically is a lot of undisciplined play. Like just not Belichick like where guys are getting their eyes caught in the backfield on a long touchdown, a Tyree kill or, you know, Sam Howell's like throwing across the field is by,

Starting point is 00:15:49 because they're in a zone and they don't have a flat defender in the zone. And they just bust the coverage. Like the touchdown pass to Jalen Watt at the end of them against, it was, it was a pretty bad day overall for the offense, but they did get the Patriots within one score in the fourth quarter, and they just needed the ball back to maybe try to tie the game. And the defense, you know, two guys go with Tyree Kill, nobody goes with Jalen Waddell, game over, right?

Starting point is 00:16:15 Like those types of plays have been happening more recently. I think a big development last week, they shut down JC Jackson for the first quarter. Belichick was called after the game based off the reports recently that it was disciplinary in nature due to a missed curfew the night before the game to Germany. He was ruled out on Thursday and was reportedly ruled out earlier in the week and didn't practice all week and didn't make the trip.

Starting point is 00:16:46 So I think they're trying to send a message to guys that if you're not locked in mentally, and JC was in the middle of a lot of those busts, then you're not going to play. And I think that that's really been their Achilles heel recently is just a lot of big plays happening, not necessarily because the other team is making great plays, but because they're making it easy to make big plays. So they've allowed 11

Starting point is 00:17:11 explosives over the last two weeks. Now, five of those were against Miami, which you expect to give up some big chunks against the Dolphins, but giving up six to the commanders last week was, was tough to watch. Yeah. Yeah. So no So some numbers to throw with what you're saying here. The Patriots actually the fourth highest blitz percentage in the NFL right now. I believe I saw it was at 37.5%. When, like you said, it's been just increasing a lot recently. But something I was really interested in, and you kind of mentioned here with their pass defense,

Starting point is 00:17:39 is they're allowing a lot of conversions through the air. I think they allow the third most first downs through the air this year. Eighth most passing yards in total this year. They're allowing 8.3 average depth yards per target as well. So a lot of these passes are going down the field. Not a lot of checkdowns against the Patriots. A lot of explosives, like you mentioned. And they're doing this too with a pretty solid run defense.

Starting point is 00:17:59 Only 3.5 yards per carry against. Now, I think that's a little bit skewed because teams are running late and blow out games into obvious run situations. So it's a tad bit skewed there, but good run defense, good blitzing team gets a lot of pressure, but they are susceptible to those big plays. Now, I wish the Colts had a quarterback who could exploit that a little bit, but, you know, we'll see what they can do this weekend with Gardner Minshew. But yeah, overall overall when I look at

Starting point is 00:18:25 this Patriots defense like again there is something there but I saw it last week when you were actually talking about the the commanders game it's like the zone coverage and the coverage miscues on the back end it's like you can't really pair that with a high blitzing team because you get those explosives against them right yeah exactly and that's exactly what happened on that howl play which is for me personally i if you're gonna you know give up like the touchdown to johan dotson which was the cover zero uh the blitz didn't really get home and the corners are one-on-one down the field and miles bryant loses on the post route to johan dotson gives up a touchdown. That play was more execution-based. Like, they just didn't really have play from really both ends,

Starting point is 00:19:09 like the back end or the front. But the throw to Byron Pingel that I just talked about on, you know, if people can go watch it, like Howell is under siege. You know, Josh Uche comes unblocked through the middle of the line of scrimmage. Howell is running to his right, off his back foot, throws it all the way across the field to the left. I think NextGen clocked it at like a 35, 40-yard air yard pass. You know, even if it wasn't like a bomb.

Starting point is 00:19:38 It was just that he was that far away from where he threw the ball. And when I'm watching it live, I'm like, well, you know, everybody I think was like, what the heck is he doing? And then I kind of was watching it develop. And I was like, there's nobody over there, right? Like there's no Patriots, I should say, over there. So he's just throwing it as big open space where there's no coverage. And like you said, exactly, you can't blitz and then give up, you know, bust the coverage on the back end.

Starting point is 00:20:08 And if you do blitz and you got to get home. Right. And that's where this like Jacqueline Hyde thing is going on, where the cover zero opens on the touchdown to Dodson and they don't the blitz doesn't get home. So that you can't run cover zero and not get any pressure on the quarterback. That's just going to be a long day. And then they do get pressure up front, and then they bust the coverage. So it's just a combination of those things just not really made up consistently enough right now. And I think it's a little bit disappointing in that game last week too

Starting point is 00:20:42 that they weren't able to rattle Sam Howell a little bit disappointing in that game last week too that they weren't able to rattle Sam Howell a little bit because that's been Belichick's MO even post Brady they've been able to win these games against lesser quarterbacks backup quarterbacks whatever you want I don't know bridge guy whatever um you know a guy like Gardner Minshew on Sunday. Even post-Brady, they've been able to win that game. And that's why last year at times on offense they still won eight games and almost made the playoffs because they were able to pile together backup quarterback wins or off without any of his weapons or, you know, things like that because of injury luck.

Starting point is 00:21:25 And now those types of games aren't even good, which you look at this game, you look at the Raiders game in Las Vegas where Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt at half time in the entire second half of the game and the Patriots lost. Those are games that have still tilted in their favor. They win seven games, 10 games, eight games, you know, seven Cam Newton in the COVID year. Those days were winning those games still because they were able to beat these bad quarterbacks. Yeah. Yeah. So again, Patriots defense still pretty solid, but just not there. It's just not enough, especially with what they're

Starting point is 00:22:02 doing on offense. But coming up, guys, we're going to talk about our final thoughts on this game. Again, Evan is out there live in Germany, so we're going to have some fun talking about our final predictions and what we expect to see this weekend from the Colts and the Patriots. This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp. This time of year can be a lot, and it's natural to feel some sadness or anxiety about it. Guys, my day job, I work over in retail.

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Starting point is 00:23:28 Colts and the Patriots but we're going to do our final thoughts going into this game I mean both these teams I don't want to say they're playing for nothing or they're just playing for pride at this point but obviously Indianapolis Colts with a backup quarterback at best you're maybe a low wild card team that loses in the first round. You're just not really going to go that far at best with your season. And then the New England Patriots sitting at two and seven. You're not tanking. You're not throwing the hat in right now, but you're close. You're close to the end of the season there. So maybe not super exciting as a matchup going into the weekend for all these teams here. Maybe a matchup the Colts should win if they want to get their season back on track. But Evan, what are you kind

Starting point is 00:24:08 of expecting to see this weekend? You've been around this Patriots team all year. You've seen the highs and lows. What are you kind of expecting here in Germany this weekend? Yeah, honestly, this game could go totally either way. I wish I had a straight answer for you, but I really, until we see their compete level and their effort on Sunday, I just don't know what to expect from the Patriots. It's a long trip or it was a long trip for them. You know, you come, you fly seven hours over here and then you get your body clock adjusted. And trust me, I've been here for a couple of days and I still don't know what time it is. So that's a difficult thing to deal with for a football team. And I'm not even going out and playing on Sunday. So I can't even imagine all of that. So with all that said,

Starting point is 00:24:55 a two and seven football team making a trip like this essential disaster. But I think the one thing that the Patriots have in this game, because there's not a whole lot of things I can say about the Patriots matchup, the atmosphere here, at least so far in Frankfurt, has been very pro-Patriots. And I think there is going to be a decent amount of Patriots fans at this game. And a lot of the people that we've met and I've been able to talk to the

Starting point is 00:25:24 last couple of days are really hoping that the Patriots are going to put fans at this game. And a lot of the people that we've met and I've been able to talk to the last couple of days are really hoping that the Patriots are going to put together a professional performance on Sunday and show them something. Yeah. Positive. I think that maybe they show out for this, this fan base, right.

Starting point is 00:25:42 You know, it's a big game. And I think that's something that we've been talking about a lot on our shows. This is, I hate calling it like their Superbowl because it's a regular season game. And obviously both teams know about actually playing in Superbowl. So I hate calling it that, but at the same time, it, it kind of is in a way because of how much the organization has put into this entire effort.

Starting point is 00:26:11 Like when I tell you all hands are on deck in the organization from our side of things to make this game happen. And this is a big, big game for ownership and for the Kraft family and all of that. So when you start checking his future here as the head coach and his job security, if they go out on Sunday and they get blown out by the Colts in Germany, they're not going to fire Bill in season. I don't see that happening. But if we get to January and he gets fired, the reports are going to come the final straw was losing badly to the Colts in

Starting point is 00:26:51 Germany. That's going to end up being the thing that they're going to say, that was just a bridge too far for us. So if that happens, then this is a tenuous situation at best. But I really have to think that the Patriots are going to make the most of this experience and ride the home fans here in Frankfurt and put together a solid game on Sunday. Yeah, yeah. I think on paper, you know, some people might be thinking this is a game that's similar to that Carolina Panthers game where, look, the Colts were just on a different tier than that Panthers team. The Panthers were just not ready for that game and they did not play well whatsoever while the

Starting point is 00:27:28 records are kind of similar between the Panthers and the Patriots I think the Patriots are the better football team obviously in that situation more professional offense more professional defense than what the Colts saw this past week so I do expect this to be a closer game but I know all of us here in Indy would love some retribution for Frank Wright getting fired after that Patriots game last year, after the Colts got embarrassed against the Patriots. We'd love some retribution to embarrass the Patriots and get Bill Belichick fired. I think all Colts fans would have a blast with that right there. That story would be fantastic. We would all love it here in Indy. I didn't even think of that. Honestly, I, you know, we're just so

Starting point is 00:28:07 dialed into this, frankly, mess that's going on in New England that I didn't even really think about Frank Wright getting canned after that game last year. That game last year was one of the worst offensive games I've ever seen. That on both sides like both offenses were just absolutely horrific uh the Colts it was the sacks right like Ellen took like seven secrets just literally couldn't move the ball from point a to point b like it just was an absolutely disgusting offensive game on both sides so uh it's something tells though that this is gonna be maybe a little bit different like the Chiefs Dolphins game wasn't really this like explosion of offense that people thought it was going to be.

Starting point is 00:28:52 And that way that ends up reversing script a little bit. And these two teams kind of put up some points. I wouldn't – I wouldn't mind it. It's like I got to be there one way or another. Might as well make it a inning. But I also think that that could potentially be the case. So I picked, you know, I went back and forth in this game all week long because the Patriots are playing better right now than the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:29:16 You know, I think that they're playing better offensively for sure than New England is, but I do think crowd is going to carry the Patriots a little bit in the beginning of this game. So I ended up picking the Pats 27-24. That was probably a homer pick by a bunch of rabid German Pats fans. But I think that, you know,

Starting point is 00:29:38 it's going to be one of those types of games where I think it will be entertaining. It will be a little bit back and forth. Yep. And it really comes down to which quarterback in this game has fewer turnovers that's the biggest thing in this one with Mac Jones Gardner Minshew both top 10 in the NFL and most turnovers this year which a little more impressive I think for Gardner because he hasn't started every single game so you know hats off for Gardner Minshew doing that in in fewer starts but it'll be uh it'll be a fun one to see this weekend here in Germany. Guys, if you guys don't already, make sure you're following Evan on social media.

Starting point is 00:30:09 Does a great job there with Patriots.com. At EZ Lazar over there. Again, at Patriots.com. Really great film guy. And if you guys don't already, make sure you're following us at LockedOnColts, at JakeArthurNFL, and at ZachHicks2 all on Twitter. Also subscribe to us on YouTube, wherever you list your podcasts. We love your guys' ratings and reviews. and we'll see you guys back here.

Starting point is 00:30:28 I can actually say, like, bright and early on Sunday after the game.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts MUST Take Advantage of Struggling Mac Jones/New England Patriots

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