Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts QB Carousel Guide

Episode Date: February 25, 2022

This is your one place to find out about all of the Indianapolis Colts' quarterback options this offseason. With Carson Wentz likely leaving Indy, what are the most realistic scenarios that could unfo...ld?In the end, we go over 10 names that make sense as potential replacements for Wentz. If the Colts are truly "all chips in", how could this offseason truly unfold?A very interesting offseason lies ahead for the Colts. Find out about all the QBs here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello everyone, welcome into your latest episode of Locked On Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Today, as always, I'm your host, Evan Sidery, joined by Stephen Reed of Stampede Blue. He is back, and like we were just talking about off the air real quick, Stephen, it is now February 24th. As you probably hear, this might be February 25th, end of February, a couple days after the scouting combine, a couple weeks away from free agency beginning.
Starting point is 00:00:43 And since you last been on the show, Stephen, we've gone from 50 50 on carson wentz to now i think it's 99.999 chance if there's any possibility that i'd probably even say 100 chance that carson wentz will not be the cold starting right next year you've heard from multiple sources ian rapaport chris mortensen zach keifer um steven holder kevin bowen Kravitz, every one of these people have said via their own intel over the last few weeks and months, Stephen, on multiple occasions, that Carson Wentz will not be the Colts quarterback next year. So for those still holding out hope, I mean, every single base in the industry, as far as media goes with sourcing, have said that Carson Wentz will not be the quarterback next
Starting point is 00:01:22 year at this point. So I think it's fair to say 100% chance that he won't be back in Indy, Stephen. What's your reaction to that? Because we thought it might get to this point, but, man, they have literally put Carson Wentz out on the table and let him get beat really badly out in the open for the last six plus weeks since the season. They've done nothing really to support him at all.
Starting point is 00:01:43 Yeah, Evan, first, it's good to be back um a little bit of a hiatus there for me um much needed but that's okay um yeah so i go away for like a month and everything like kind of just goes to hades um with the whole situation or you know some people might think that this is heaven because they move on from cars Wentz uh yeah it's a it's kind of a crazy situation because you know he that the thing about Wentz is he didn't play like beyond terribly like he fell off down the stretch, but, like, over the course of the season, I mean, he was adequate. I've said this before. I've said it on social media. I've said it multiple different places.
Starting point is 00:02:34 I think the straw that broke the camel's back was Jim Irsay. If you tweeted this out, I think it was one of the Indianapolis riders had put out a video of Jim Ursae talking about Lake in September about Carson Wentz and say how hard he's working. He's working to get back. He's trying to get back and everything. But he made that comment about vaccination. He says he's choosing not to get vaccinated, so I hope that doesn't –
Starting point is 00:03:06 you know, that's his choice. We want to respect the guy's rights to choose and everything. And I think the Colts did a really good job of that. But there are still consequences for these choices. And I think it was a straw that broke the camel's back that at the end of the season – and this was also reported um i think jason lock and forna uh reported this as well that that was one of the things that the decision makers with the colts were kind of really frustrated about was down the stretch cars went to miss the week of
Starting point is 00:03:35 practice in the most important stretch of the season because he caught covet and chris valid mentioned his end of season press conference people will sit there and say, oh no, COVID wasn't the reason why they're moving on. No, it's not the reason they're moving on from Chris Wentz. But it's part of it, because you have Jim Irsay, who for better or worse, Jim
Starting point is 00:03:58 Irsay knows football. And he's probably one of the smartest football owners in terms of actually knowing the game of football there's in the NFL. So yeah, I just think that Carson, you know, like, like you said, last time we talked, it was like 50, 50, you know, I was leaning that they were probably going to get rid of them. But I could see them potentially saying, Hey, no, it's not worth it.
Starting point is 00:04:21 We're going to go ahead and stick with them. Now it's like you said, it's like a 99%. And once Chris Mortensen reported that, like, we all kind of know that, like, that's like, inside baseball, like, we kind of know Chris Mortensen's source is Jim Irsay. And like Colin Cowherd's, probably Chris Ballard. So like, You'll hear the dueling arguments there from everything. It's one of those situations where it just seemed like there was a lot of things going on behind the scenes with Carson Wentz because they could win with him. They were not going to win because of him. I think ultimately that was kind of the straw that came to us back.
Starting point is 00:05:06 And, again, it's something we can get in later in the episode. But I think that it's pretty safe to say, like you mentioned, he's not going to be back next year with the Colts. Yeah, what's really crazy, too, I haven't had a chance to tweet this yet, but I was listening to Mike Chappell, his interview on JMV today. And he mentioned just jokingly, but I think it spoke volumes just because GMV asked Mike Chappell a question about Carson Wentz and like the probability that he's back next year.
Starting point is 00:05:35 And he said the same chance that you do have as getting behind center, like as far as JMV being the Colts quarterback. So that just goes to show you that it's like a hundred percent chance at this point that the Colts are moving on from Carson Wentz. And I think it's crazy to think just because, like you mentioned, the stats, if you look at the box score, 27-7, I think his career best quarterback rating since I think 2018. So it's been a couple years.
Starting point is 00:05:57 So he had a really solid year as far as those basic stats go. But if you look at the eye test over the last two months of the season, Steven, Carson Wentz was simply not getting it done. And in the easiest situations possible for a quarterback where it's stack box, where Jonathan Taylor is going off for multiple touchdowns and a hundred plus yards, every single game teams are stacking the box.
Starting point is 00:06:16 And you still can't take advantage of those guys with easy one-on-one looks in the outside. And that's when Wentz was at his worst. And those moments too, against the Raiders and the Jaguars and the other big games throughout the season, like Tampa and also the Tennessee games, is Wentz never really consistently stood up for himself as far as in those big moments. And I think that really rubbed the Colts the wrong way.
Starting point is 00:06:36 And another thing I tweeted out a day or so ago to Steven, and I think you liked as well, about Jim Irsay. And this was back in July when it was talking about training camp and looking ahead a little bit to the vaccination stats of what we know back then. And this is a Jim Irsay quote from July. It's professional football. We're here to win. I know what it means to get in a position to win and have something go sideways on you like an injury. This is somewhat similar to that.
Starting point is 00:07:00 Talk about the vaccine stats people, how heartbreaking it is. I don't want to see us get in that position. You have to a choice you have to decide am i in this to win a championship what price i'm willing to pay that's what this really comes down to we've heard that same thing about being priced to pay like all chips in i think it all kind of leads back to what you're talking about your answer steven called minsk about the vaccine where i don't think that he's been all in on course it went to jim ursae since his non-vaccination status and how his worst-case scenario that he mentioned in July actually happened in January where they were on the 90% chance of making the playoffs
Starting point is 00:07:32 and everyone gets COVID who wasn't vaccinated. That's Jim Irsay's worst nightmare. So from that standpoint, it's hard to see Wentz coming back from that just because I just think he completely lost trust in the owner. I don't think it matters if Frank Wright wants him back or if Chris Bauer's on the fence. If Jim Irsay, the guy who signs the checks, is all out on Kirsten Wentz,
Starting point is 00:07:51 Bauer really can't do anything about that, Steven. Yeah, I honestly don't think Chris – I think the whole organization is out on him. And like you mentioned, and we talked about back in July, the worst-case scenario happened with him deciding not to get vaccinated. And Jim Marseille comes from a long lineage of quarterbacks that were, one, very intelligent quarterbacks. And two, would do anything to help the team win or give their team an advantage not like to like the patriots like hey i'm going to cheat to get myself an advantage but anything legal that they could do to give
Starting point is 00:08:31 themselves an advantage they were going to do and so i think that was really hard for jim hersey to swallow that carson wentz wouldn't get a simple shot of a safe and effective vaccine to protect themselves when they know the rules, regardless of how you feel about the vaccine or whether they should or should not get it. The rules were the rules. And they knew that if they tested positive under these rules, they were going to put themselves in their team at a significant competitive disadvantage. And again, this comes back to Jim Irsay being a very intelligent owner and understanding football and that he's been in the locker room. He knows what it's like in there. And so to have an owner that really knows his stuff like Jim Irsay,
Starting point is 00:09:28 that really irked him, I bet. That's just, again, my guess. And then I think Frank Reich was all out on Carson when it got to the end of the season because you saw them putting in these stacked boxes to stop Jonathan Taylor. And Frank Reich was still not putting the ball in Carson Wentz's hands. Because like you mentioned, the games that Carson really needed to win were Tennessee games. Both of those games, Carson kind of choked that away.
Starting point is 00:09:59 New England, he almost choked it away. But he only threw for 50 yards that game, like 57, 59 yards, something like that in the New England game. So, like, he didn't even have a good game, and he threw a couple – he threw a pick late in that game that gave New England an opportunity. What you had, Buffalo was another game where you're like, oh, this is a great Colts win. But it was Jonathan Taylor that, like, just crushed it the entire game so you've got these
Starting point is 00:10:28 opportunities and even in the Arizona game where people like point to that one throw and it was a brilliant throw there's only two three quarterbacks in the NFL that can make that throw at the end that that touchdown pass to Desmond Fatman but Carson Wentz was not good for the first three quarters that game. And then he comes over and says Gideon to Frank Reich, and then he ends up winning the game. Great. But then he went and kind of crapped the bed. You know, he went to his pants there the last two weeks of the season
Starting point is 00:10:59 when he caught COVID. And then he was slow. He didn't process. He missed a week of practice. And it's been reported by a couple of different places that that really irked Chris Ballard. That really irked Jim Erson. Because that was the worst case scenario,
Starting point is 00:11:18 is that he was going to catch COVID. He was going to miss time at the end of the season when they really needed him. And then they were going to miss time at the end of the season when they really needed him and then they were going to miss the playoffs and lo and behold unfortunately for them that's what happened but quite honestly this might be a blessing in disguise because the part of the reason why I think that the Colts are going to move on from Carson Wentz is because they recognize that he's good enough, but he's not like he's okay. He's never going to be a guy that wins you a Super Bowl. And Jim Irsay wants to win a Super Bowl. So he'd rather spend out to go get a guy like an Aaron
Starting point is 00:12:02 Rogers or a Russell Wilson if he can or just go ahead and cut bait with Wentz because with Wentz he is good enough that you're going to compete for the playoffs but if you compete for the playoffs knowing that you're not going to win a Super Bowl because your quarterback is the one that's holding you back and look at like six of the eight teams in the final eight they all had top quarterbacks in there and so like and Tannehill is like questionable on that list the only one that you couldn't say is wasn't a top quarterback was Jimmy G and so they're not going to win with Carson Wentz in the AFC specifically and so my thought process is at this point is that the Colts are firmly willing
Starting point is 00:12:46 to cut bait with Carson Wentz because they know they either need to get a bigger fish or they need to go ahead and get themselves in a place where they can be in position to get a quarterback next year in 2023. Because the 2022 class is meh on quarterbacks they're not very good the 2023 class has got quite a few in there and so if the colts put themselves in that that you know you don't want to be in the bottom 10 but if you happen to be in the bottom 10 great you got yourself in a position to get a quarterback um but if you're in that the range where they're at right now, like if they were 16 next year, where the roster is good enough that they're going to compete, but maybe not make the playoffs, but it's going to put them in a position where they can go up and get their quarterback, trade into the top 10, only give up maybe an extra first round pick in 2024 get a rookie quarterback that you really like on a rookie deal for five years or for four years and then you've got that fifth year option and it gives you a chance to get the guy because right now Carson Wentz is just a guy you can't
Starting point is 00:13:57 win a Super Bowl with a guy you gotta win it with the guy and that's ultimately what it comes down to for me yeah I totally agree with your assessment there and just looking at Wentz you know the ceiling already we kind of knew with Phillip Rivers where it was kind of a first second run exit in the playoffs and we're going to win Super Bowl with Phillip Rivers obviously Rivers is a lot good than what Carson Wentz was this past year but just knowing the ceiling of this team where it's a lot higher and obviously you have the most pro bowlers in the NFL you have a lot of talent on this team. You're just a quarterback away.
Starting point is 00:14:26 And it's been just a cycle in and out the last three or four years. And this will be the fifth year in a row where that's going to be the case. And one last point here on just the Colts and the quarterback situation, before we dive into some certain players, we'll go through the whole game of today. But, Stephen, one of your thoughts here on what do you think is next for the Colts? Because, I mean, as far as trades go, I mean, do you think Kirsten Wentz,
Starting point is 00:14:48 that trade happens first here? Or do you think we're all just waiting for Aaron Rodgers at this point? Because it feels, I think, very likely that Kirsten Wentz gets traded. The question is if they just dump him for like a sixth or seventh round pick or if they actually get like legitimate value, like a second or third round pick back for Kirsten Wentz. I'll tell you, the first dominant that's got to drop has got to be Rodgers.
Starting point is 00:15:10 Because they're, I mean, it's like last year with Matthew Stafford is once Stafford dropped, that's when dominoes started to fall. This year it's Rodgers. Once Rodgers decides what he's doing, it's going to tell a lot of teams what's available and what's not. And so I think that's going to be the start of it.
Starting point is 00:15:31 When it comes to value for Carson Wentz, I still think the Colts might be able to get a second round pick for him, which I think that they'll be fine with. I mean, I want to say Stephen Holder, Zach Kiefer, on their podcast, 1% Better, they had mentioned some – and Stephen Holder had put out something on The Athletic of recent trades that involve quarterbacks where, you know, you had what Sam Darnold got a second, a fourth, and a sixth or something like that. And then you had
Starting point is 00:16:06 Sam Bradford got a first and a fourth back then, but that was right before the season and Minnesota was desperate and I thought they could win a Super Bowl then. So there's a little bit different there. You've got some criteria where like Carson Wentz is a good quarterback and in the right system, I think that he can do well. The trouble is Frank Wright system requires the quarterback to be smart. Um, and to be able to recognize defenses pre-snap and know exactly where you're going and be decisive. And Carson Wentz isn't that.
Starting point is 00:16:49 So I think if there's a couple teams that are interested in Carson Wentz, you might be able to get a team to put in a – the dream scenario is Tampa Bay with that late first round or 27th overall. They might be interested in that if like the Colts add on a pick with Carson Wentz, like Carson and a fourth round pick for 27, something like that. I think Chris Ballard would look at that and consider it. You know, but I do think that regardless of what happens and if the Colts are going to try to get a second round pick or potentially a late first round pick, they're going to have to eat almost all of Carson Wentz's salary. And you know what? I think they'll be totally fine with that. I think they'd be more
Starting point is 00:17:36 than happy to eat half, 75% of Carson Wentz's salary if they can be done with him and get themselves a late first round pick or a second round pick for him so that's kind of where I think I'd be surprised if they didn't get at least a third round pick I think it's going to probably be a second round pick for him. Football might be over for this season but basketball is full steam ahead for both pro and college hoops. From all the latest odds, totals, player performance props, to where the next fire coach is going to land, BetOnline.net is the number one spot for your sporting betting needs.
Starting point is 00:18:14 BetOnline remains the best spot for your sports scores, podcasts, and news this season. And it's not just basketball. BetOnline.net is your source for hockey, boxing, and UFC odds, right to the Olympic coverage and information. Head to the website website today's mobile device right now sign up and learn more about the trends in action bet online where the game starts i agree i i think the ceiling for him honestly at least in my opinion is probably a third round peg just because i think it's so damning the curse and wince that the guy that wanted him so badly and Frank Reich wants to be off him after a year. I know maybe everyone will say it's Irsay, but even still,
Starting point is 00:18:49 that's Frank Reich's team that you're getting off of with the guy that was supposed to make it all work with Carson Wentz. So I can see a third-round pick. We've heard some rumors around the Steelers, the Commanders. There's probably at least like three or four teams that would be interested in Carson Wentz. Maybe you can draw up a market where it's probably just fourth and and fifth round picks and who's going to be the guy that offers the third round pick that probably gets it done here within the next couple weeks for Kirsten Wentz I
Starting point is 00:19:11 think that's what makes the most sense here but Steven let me let's go ahead and dive in to options now for the Colts because this will be the first time really diving in depth on the show about as far as options because I think I mean we've it's been a formality at this point for the last week plus that Carson Wentz on with the Colts correct next year so we can officially go now and look at other options and the first one I want to go over here let's start off in free agency and they'll go to free agency and then we'll do trades and then maybe look a little bit at the draft as well if we want to but free agency the first thing I want to come up with here is one thing the Colts fans are most interested in if they do go the free agency route and that is jamis winston who tore his acl last season with the saints but same guy as carson wentz very volatile but he was doing very well for himself
Starting point is 00:19:54 for with the saints this year but it was a lot of really a lot of the colts do well which is heavy run really relying a lot on defense there and jam Jameis Winston has been having a really good year. Career best numbers across the board until that happened, as far as efficiency goes, with his knee injury. Would you be intrigued at all by Jameis Winston? Because the Colts technically, I'm going on over the cap right now, Stephen, and looking at their salary cap. They currently have $36 million in cap space, according to over the cap.
Starting point is 00:20:21 But if you throw in an extra $18 million to that, be close to $50 million if you cut Carson Wentz and Jack Doyle, assuming he retires. So that's $18 million that free you up close to that number. What's your opinion of doing that route? Maybe in the end, even if you have to cut Carson Wentz, you still end up saving more money on the back end if you sign Jameis Winston, like a one-year $7 or $8 million deal. What's your thoughts on Jameis? He's kind of just like Carson Wentz,
Starting point is 00:20:47 but maybe better as far as the leadership category goes in the locker room. Yeah, I think Jameis as a football player is pretty good. The trouble with Jameis is the off-field stuff in college really bothered a lot of people. It still bothers me to a point. I'm not sure Ursae would go for that. In terms of free agent options, though, it's really him and Mariota that make the most sense.
Starting point is 00:21:18 Jameis is a quality option. He's decisive. He played in Sean Payton's offense, which is one that's a little bit more cerebral and requires you to have that precision passing game. And he actually played really well in that offense. So in Frank Reich's offense, what you've got to be able to do is recognize things pre-snap. You've got to be able to throw with anticipation and know where you're going. Like that's what makes Phillip Rivers so great in this offense is that he was a statue back there even more so than Peyton Manning was a statue,
Starting point is 00:21:51 but he knew exactly where he was going. And the blitz and everything didn't get to him. It's one of my favorite stories about Phillip Rivers that I probably told on here before, but it's going against the Houston Texans. And they had a linebacker that was lined up in the wrong place for the Blitz. And Philip pointed it out to him and said, hey, you're in the wrong place for the Blitz you're about to run. And J.J. Watt looked over and saw it and he said, well, damn, yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:20 And sure enough, he was. And so that's the type of quarterback that can really excel in a Frank Reich system. Jameis Winston's a very smart football player in terms of understanding the offense and understanding where to go. So, you know, I don't necessarily like his workouts on TikTok and all that. That's weird, but it's all Tom House workouts, so you can't fault him for that. So he's got a good base. He's got a good training regimen, and he's a smart player. So I think if you went with Jameis, they would be in a really solid spot.
Starting point is 00:22:56 I think Jameis and Marcus Mariota in terms of the free agents, those are the two that you would want to get. Yeah, ironically, those are the top two picks in the – I believe it was the 2014 draft when those guys were in there, where it was Wentz and Mariota. And those would be probably the two most realistic free agent ops for the Colts this year as far as replacing Carson Wentz. And let's stay on Mariota for a second because he's the one guy
Starting point is 00:23:18 I'm really intrigued by, honestly, in Frank Reich's system. A lot of RPOs, a lot of movement in and around the pocket. I think Mariota has displayed, at least during his backup stint with the Raiders, when he does get time, he does bring a unique element on the field, and he's no issue in the locker room. He's a good leader from all aspects. When he got benched for Tannehill, a great guy on and off the field. He understood what was going on.
Starting point is 00:23:42 He wasn't pouting or anything like that. Mariota is definitely a guy who's very inconsistent though I mean all these guys are Wentz Winston and Mariota but knowing they're going to be replacing Carson Wentz these two guys here Mariota and Wentz are kind of the same volatility as Wentz but maybe Mariota gives you an upside you haven't had in a while where maybe you can go more in that I wouldn't say Baltimore Ravens type of package Steven but Mariota is very mobile. He's like a 4-4-8, I think 40, and he showed with the Raiders he can be utilized on third down and in the red zone.
Starting point is 00:24:13 What's your thoughts on Mariota kind of going all in on like a 49er Saints, Ravens kind of offense where it's very run heavy next year and you just kind of bridge that one year until 2023? Yeah, I think Mariota is a solid solid fit in this offense because like you said, he's well-versed in RBO. That's something that they ran at Oregon. It's he knows it well. So I think he could excel in Frank Reich's offense in terms of a passer. You wonder because he's just had such limited opportunities over the past handful of years.
Starting point is 00:24:47 And even in the times where he got chances to play, his passes were kind of off. So you worry about accuracy and maybe just not seeing game speed that he just hasn't seen it in a couple of years. That's my only worry with Mariota but I mean he's a quality leader he's going to be consistent he's going to be a team first guy so honestly either Winston or Mariota I think I would prefer over Carson Wentz um because one they're going to cost less and the Colts are going to end up saving money in the end because even if you cut Carson Wentz, you get $13 million in cap space back. If you end up signing one of those guys for less than $13 million or $13 million or less, you're going to be awash and feel like you've got a better quarterback.
Starting point is 00:25:39 One more guy I want to throw at you, Stephen, before we dive into some other options, is one that actually Colin Coward said today on his show that he predicted on his show. I think he had a segment where he went over all these quarterbacks, and we know he's good friends with Chris Ballard. So it might be him just throwing stuff at a wall and hoping it sticks. Maybe it's actually like intel from Chris Ballard, maybe what the options are for fallback plans with Carson Wentz in the correct situation. But Colin Coward predicted Carson Wentz to the Broncos, and then in place of Wentz in the correct situation. But Colin Cowher predicted Carson Wentz to the Broncos.
Starting point is 00:26:05 And then in place of Wentz next year, he had Mitch Trubisky as the Colts quarterback. Steven, what's your thoughts on Trubisky? That's my thoughts right there. You know, Trubisky is – he has talent. You don't go in the top 10 if you don't have talent. He's gotten an opportunity to, I believe, learn behind Josh Allen this past year in Buffalo. So he's had an opportunity to learn behind a quality quarterback
Starting point is 00:26:38 and learn from Brian Dabble there in Buffalo, the offensive coordinator, now head coach over at the New York Giants. So it's an interesting – I didn't know that that's what Colin had said, but it's really interesting, one, that Colin said it, and two, that it's Trubisky. If the Colts are able to trade Wentz to the Broncos, and I think they'd probably get a second-round pick for him, because that means the Broncos missed out on Rodgers and Wilson and I don't see Carr moving I don't see
Starting point is 00:27:12 um I don't see the Colts going for Jimmy G um so it's just yeah I I think Trubisky would be an interesting option I don't know how much of an upgrade, but I think it would be a decent – it's a treading water starter to where he's not going to sink the ship, but he's not going to rise you up at all. You're just going to tread water with him and probably end right about where you're at now. Yeah, and Trubisky's a guy, obviously, number two overall pick, and probably in right about where you're at now. Yeah. And Trubisky is a guy,
Starting point is 00:27:47 obviously number two overall pick. And I think it was the 2018 draft or 2017. One of those years, Trubisky obviously had a lot of talent at North Carolina, one year starter, the bears trade up and get him. Didn't work out obviously, but like you mentioned,
Starting point is 00:28:00 it was a backup this past year in Buffalo. Reportedly he's built up his stock really well. So it sounds like he's going to have a market. Same for Mariota. Same for Winston. So these guys are going to end up going different places. I think Jameis Winston, if I'm predicting now, he'll probably stay in New Orleans just based off if the Saints don't get
Starting point is 00:28:16 involved with like a Russell Wilson. I don't really see anyone else going to New Orleans here. I don't see. Yeah, I don't see. Well, I don't even see the Saints getting involved with Russell Wilson because, quite honestly, they're still $70 million over the cap right now. So they've got to get under the cap, and Russell Wilson in and of itself is going to be, I think,
Starting point is 00:28:33 a $25, $35 million cap charge. So they'd have to clear out $105 million on the cap to be able to trade for Russell Wilson. Last one. Yeah, I agree here. Just because with Jameis, I think he'll be like a one-year guy. Again, you get him on the cheap. He'll take a hometown discount, so to say, if he guarantees a start next year. So he won't cost much money for them. And maybe Mariota and Trubisky are more realistic options here.
Starting point is 00:29:01 But one more question here, Stephen, before we dive into some more options. And it's about a couple other free agents, guys. But I just want to line these guys all up in a row here. And you pick out which one would be the most realistic because these will be the Colts free agency options. They're like 100% certain, or at least we can say there's a little bit of an out here. 99.9% chance that Carson Wentz will not be the Colts quarterback next year. We're going to have to go through all these options to kind of rate them out.
Starting point is 00:29:24 We'll tier them at the end of this episode, Stephen. But as far as free agency options go, assuming Jameis Winston does stay in New Orleans, or I don't even know if he would have included Jameis, but I'll just say Jameis does stay in New Orleans here. Out of these options, would you go with Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky, Teddy Bridgewater, or Andy Dalton to replace Carson Wentz next year? We've got to choose from one of those four people. Sam Ellinger.
Starting point is 00:29:49 No. Let's see. Out of those options, I mean, quite honestly, I would probably think Mariota would be the best option, but I'd probably end up going with Mitch Trubisky in there. It's an interesting name. He said he's got talent. He's a smart quarterback. So I would be interested to see what he could do and given the opportunity.
Starting point is 00:30:14 And I think that he's going to be a little bit cheaper than, than Mariota. And quite honestly, if, if the Colts are going with a free agent quarterback next year they're basically telling you they're drafting a quarterback really high in 2023 um because that's like they're not going to sign a guy like this to a one or two year deal or the the other part about it is if you sign Mariota or Trubitsky, Teddy B actually would be an interesting choice. I don't think they go with Dalton at all. So I just immediately took him out off my list. But when it comes to Mariota or Trubitsky,
Starting point is 00:31:03 the good thing about those guys is if you sign them to a multi-year deal, to a two-year deal, it gives you an opportunity to let them play next year, you know, see what they got. Then you've got them under control for the year after that. But if they don't do great, then it gives you an opportunity in 2023 to draft a quarterback and have those guys to be a mentor to them. And both of those guys would be just an, a great mentor to a rookie quarterback to help them get acclimated to the NFL.
Starting point is 00:31:34 So they've, they've both accepted roles as a backup in the past. They've been high character guys that have supported the, the team, the team first guys, even if it means that they don't get the playing time. So I would be fine with either Mariota or Trubisky, quite honestly. I think Trubisky would be an interesting fit in this offense. Realistically, I feel like Trubisky is probably a better fit just because I don't have the accuracy concerns, I guess, that I really kind of do with Mariota just from seeing him play in Tennessee. And then now the limited time that he gets with Las Vegas, that was just kind of questionable to me.
Starting point is 00:32:21 So I'd probably lean Trubisky. Yeah, I would probably go Mariota and then Trubisky second, but they're both very close. And I agree with your assessment there on Andy Dalton. I think he's not really or shouldn't be an option at least for the Colts and free agency. But I think when looking at those, I think those two are the very clear favorites.
Starting point is 00:32:38 So Jameis does indeed test the open market and doesn't want to stay in New Orleans. He definitely adds his ring into the mix here for those three guys between Trubisky, Mariota, and Winston. But let's get to some trade talk, Stephen. And we saw a report from Diana Rossini today from ESPN saying that Aaron Rodgers' decision should be coming here very soon, within the next week,
Starting point is 00:32:56 which makes sense because that would be about 10 days before free agency begins. It'd be over a week plus into the franchise tag window as well. And probably back channeling figuring out what exactly he wants to do over next week plus Diana Rossini did mention according to her like and then she kind of backtracked a little bit later on I think it was a sports in her head because she didn't want to get people in trouble by saying technically be tampering if they were actually talking trades but that stuff happens this time you're all know the combine is kind of open tampering in and of itself.
Starting point is 00:33:26 So we should hear more about that when the combine begins too, Stephen. But she said multiple offers were on the tail for Aaron Rodgers. And I think what we know about the all chips and stuff with Jim Irsay, how desperate the Colts are for an upgraded quarterback, letting it be known around the league that they're willing to cut Carson Wentz at this point just to find a QB upgrade. I think 100% chance, Stephen, I'm willing to go 100% chance here because I think it just makes all the sense in the world
Starting point is 00:33:51 from where the Colts are from a hot seat standpoint, Reich and Ballard from a desperation standpoint with Ursae and where the fans want to be with this team. I guarantee you the Colts have definitely fielded multiple offers or at least thrown multiple offers at the Packers already for a guy like Aaron Rodgers. And the same thing goes for Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. I think those are the two guys that I think Chris Ballard is, because of Jim Irsay, I think banging down their door and trying to see whatever it takes.
Starting point is 00:34:21 Because if you're moving off Carson Wentz, those are the two guys via trade where you push those all chips in and you kind of go from there. Yeah. I want to quickly clarify things because in terms of tampering, teams can't talk to players or agents technically. They can talk to other teams. That's totally fine. So maybe I mis know, I,
Starting point is 00:34:51 maybe I misheard you there. But it sounded like there was some talk there that it wasn't able to talk to other teams. So I want to quickly put that out. Teams can talk to other teams throughout the entire year, and it doesn't matter. They can't talk to players. And that's where the tampering or talk to agents about specific players you could get around that by doing like shadow stuff where you're like well hypothetically if you know player by the name of rarin adgers was available um you know and play with it so you're not specifically talking about a player by name but anyway um but yeah going with what Jim Mercer said about being all chips in and now having the past two Superbowl champions being teams where they went in and got quarterbacks from other teams and immediately won the Superbowl with Tom
Starting point is 00:35:35 Brady down in Tampa Bay. And now Matt Stafford with the Los Angeles Rams, Kenny Moore put it really well. When he was talking to, gosh, Lara Overton and the Colts, where he said he's sitting at the Pro Bowl having, you know, lunch or breakfast or whatever meal with five of his teammates sitting there and said man we shouldn't be here like what are we doing here like we should be preparing for the super bowl and that's how
Starting point is 00:36:16 this team feels like the colts had seven pro bowlers this year seven that's a third almost a third of their starting unit on on offense and defense were pro bowlers were some of the top players in their positions so what held them back this year was the quarterback um so you look at it and if you want to make a trade, and Jim Irsay, you know, we talked about the vaccination status with Carson Wentz earlier in the year and how that could play a role and how it likely was the straw that broke the camel's back for Jim Irsay late in the season. There's not going to be any COVID restrictions next year. Kind of. There might not even be COVID testing this year for players. Who knows? So I don't think that Aaron Rodgers' vaccination stance
Starting point is 00:37:12 and all his wacky Joe Rogan, like that whole thing, Dr. Joe, kind of stuff going on, that he went in that therapeutics path. I don't think any of that's going to have anything to do with the Colts' stance and him going forward because there's two things at play here. With greater talent comes greater flexibility in what you're willing to accept. Aaron Rodgers now is a two-time, like a four-time MVP with consecutive seasons here. He's looking to play, you know,
Starting point is 00:37:49 the rumors were that he was looking to have, like, a four-year extension. And if Aaron Rodgers is willing to sign for four years and willing to play that out, then I think Jim Mercy is probably willing to make that deal. Quite honestly, there's a part of me that actually would prefer Russell Wilson if the Colts were going to make a trade, and I think that would be the more logical scenario also for Seattle because Seattle in that situation could set themselves up to,
Starting point is 00:38:24 if they wanted to, they could honestly take back Carson Wentz and take back the two first round picks. So 2023, 2024 first round picks from the Colts and Carson Wentz go to Seattle, Colts get back Russell Wilson. And I think both teams would be kind of happy at that point. And when you think about it, that would mean that, you know, Carson Wentz cost the Colts a first and a third round pick. So Colts effectively would be getting Russell Wilson for three first round picks and a third round pick, which probably about the value that you would expect for Russell Wilson.
Starting point is 00:39:00 And it would give Seattle an opportunity to see what Carson Wentz can do in their system and if he sucks it gives them plenty of ammunition to go up and get their quarterback the future that they could build around on a rookie deal like they did with Russell Wilson when they won the Super Bowl so I think quite honestly Russell Wilson makes the most sense for the Colts. He's also a very smart quarterback in terms of how he plays. Don't get me wrong, Aaron Rodgers is a brilliant quarterback in terms of how he plays the game and everything and accuracy, all that. You're not going to compete with Aaron Rodgers. He's the top quarterback in the game right now.
Starting point is 00:39:41 Even, yes, considering Patrick Mahomes, I think Rodgers is better because he's more consistent. But in terms of duration, I think you're going to get probably seven to 10 years out of Russell Wilson of elite play. And you're going to get probably, you know, Aaron Rogers signs a four-year contract. You're probably going to get a four year, four years of elite play out of Aaron Rodgers. So if all things being equal, you're going to end up giving up Carson Wentz and two first-round picks for either
Starting point is 00:40:13 player, I'd probably lean towards Russell Wilson because it's going to give you a longer opportunity to compete. If you're looking to win right now, next year, then you're probably looking at Aaron Rodgers. I agree. I think Aaron Rodgers is probably the most realistic one off that list. I think Russell Wilson, if he were to move. I just have a hard time seeing the Colts being involved. But Colin Coward did say today,
Starting point is 00:40:37 obviously I don't think he was sourced on this or anything. I think he was just mentioning that he thinks Russell Wilson should consider the Colts, the Broncos, and the Steelers as his three best options because he did bring up a good point today watching that clip where all those names he did mention last year, they don't have quarterback needs anymore. The Cowboys, obviously, they signed Dak long-term. The Bears, they drafted Justin Fields.
Starting point is 00:40:57 The Saints, we know what's going on with the Saints at this point, but they're, like you mentioned, their cap flexibility is all over the place right now. And then I believe there was one more team, I'm forgetting the name of it, they addressed the problem. Raiders. I think it was the Raiders. The Raiders with Derek Carr, yeah.
Starting point is 00:41:10 It sounds like Derek Carr is probably going to stay put in Vegas at this point. So it makes you wonder, Stephen, I mean, if Russell Wilson does move, I mean, is the Colts a legitimate option? Same for Aaron Rodgers because, I mean, I tweeted this today on the Locked on Colts Twitter account where if you're Aaron Rodgers, why would you consider going to Denver and playing six times per year total of Herbert, Mahomes, and Carr? Mahomes and Carr.
Starting point is 00:41:35 Yeah. You go to the AFC South where you're guaranteed, I think, 11-12 wins next two or three years because you're probably going five and one minimum against the AFC South every single year without issue. And you play a really solid schedule as well on top of that. So I think it's fun. You go to the AFC South, and there is not a quarterback in the AFC South that is better than the three other quarterbacks in the AFC West.
Starting point is 00:42:02 Like, I think Carr, Herbert, and Mahomes are better than Tannehill, whoever is starting in Houston next year, and Trevor Lawrence right now. Yeah, I agree. I think Tannehill, I think the magic dust has kind of worn off with Tannehill
Starting point is 00:42:19 at this point where he's probably more so in the tier of a Carson Wentz, probably give it a year or so, and that will probably prove him more true. Because I think Tannehill has kind of just been on the decline, especially losing Arthur Smith last year. He just did not look the same with him being the Falcons head coach and leaving Tannehill. But I think another scenario here I wanted to hit on with you
Starting point is 00:42:39 is Derek Carr with Las Vegas, Stephen, because I know all reports are saying that the Raiders are not going to shop Derek Carr. Josh Medeiros likes Derek Carr with Las Vegas, Stephen, because I know all reports are saying that the Raiders are not going to shop Derek Carr. Josh McDaniels likes Derek Carr. He thinks he can run his system. I totally agree with him. I think Carr is an incredible fit in the McDaniels offense. I have a hard time seeing Carr getting moved here, but Stephen, what do you think? Would you even be willing to go and inquire with McDaniels and the Raiders saying, hey, we'll give you Carson Wentz and our two future first-round picks in 23-24 for Derek Carr. Do you think the Raiders would consider that,
Starting point is 00:43:13 giving up two first-round picks and Wentz? Or do you think that the Raiders would say no? What's your thoughts? I think the Raiders would jump on that to get two first-round picks. Ant Carson Wentz for Derek Carr. I don't think the Colts would offer that. I don't think the Colts value Derek Carr in the same level as an Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson. So I do think the Colts will inquire because Chris Ballard, he does his due diligence.
Starting point is 00:43:45 He's going to take a look. He's going to turn over every stone that he can to find the best options for the Colts. I don't know how willing McDaniels is going to be to make a deal with the Colts or how much Chris Ballard trusts McDaniels not to back out last minute on a deal um but all that aside if i'm the colts i'm not offering two first round pick i mean unless it's a similar situation to the rams with jared goff where they offer that extra first round pick to take the contract i just don't think the colts are willing to do that because carson wentz they can just cut him and get $13 million in cap space back. So it's not like they don't have – like with Goff,
Starting point is 00:44:36 there was like two or three years left with a bunch of guaranteed money on that contract. The Colts don't have that with, with Carson Wentz. They've got one year of guaranteed money left, 15 guaranteed. If he's on the roster past March 18th, then it's a $28 million guaranteed. And then after that, there's no, that the Colts have no ties to Wentz at all. If they don't want him, then you just cut him straight away and not owe anything in the future.
Starting point is 00:45:06 So I think the Colts will inquire about Derek Carr. I don't think it's going to be worth two first-round picks to them. I think that they probably would offer maybe a first-round pick and kind of similar to what the Wentz deal was, a first and a third or a first and a second. But, yeah, two firsts for for Derek Carr seems like it might be a little rich yeah even though Derek Carr's a good quarterback like don't get me wrong I think Derek Carr's a good quarterback I just wouldn't put him in the
Starting point is 00:45:36 same tier as Matthew Stafford or um or um uh Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. Like, he's just not that level. Like, he might get, like, a first and a fourth or a first and a third, but I wouldn't see two firsts because, like, if it were the Raiders, I would take that. Yeah, I was just thinking just because there's value of Carson Wentz, if it's so bad behind the scenes where not a lot of teams are going to take him, maybe do you have to offload that contract a little bit and give that extra higher pick than you want to just to get off the Wentz contract and the same thing.
Starting point is 00:46:11 Maybe you pay less of that contract in that scenario. But I think in the AFC South, Derek Carr is a guy to me where you can get 11 to 12 wins with Derek Carr in the AFC just because the division is so easy. I think he's easily the best quarterback in the AFC South in that scenario. But two more guys via trade, Stephen, that we're going to cover here on the QB carousel for the Colts. And the next one here I think is very unlikely just because I think off the field I don't think he's a fit in Indy.
Starting point is 00:46:35 And same thing goes for consistency. I think he's an upgrade for sure as the stats goes and as far as maybe getting the Colts a higher win total by a game or two. But Kirk Cousins, what's your thoughts on him, him Steven because I think the Vikings are kind of lukewarm on Cousins I think if someone offers them a good enough trade I think they'll probably trade Cousins because that contract is so bad but he's such a good quarterback that maybe some team will actually get up like a first round pick or multiple second round picks for instance to get Kirk Cousins so what's your thoughts on Cousins he He is unvaccinated. We know that for sure.
Starting point is 00:47:05 So maybe that would rub us the wrong way. So what's your opinion of Kirk Cousins and that personality? But his overall efficiency, he's a great quarterback as far as yards per attempt and completion percentage. Two things we know Frank Reich really does value. So if they do, let's say, are intrigued by Kirk Cousins, let's say they just swap quarterbacks once and like a pick for Cousins, I think he definitely makes more sense in Frank Reich's offense,
Starting point is 00:47:28 certainly just from an on-the-field fit perspective. Yeah, I think Kirk Cousins makes more sense than Wentz does at this point. He's good, he's accurate, he's um beyond like the covid stuff uh and and like i mentioned before i don't think covid's gonna play into decision making after this year because i just think they're gonna kind of get rid of all the protocols um that they've dealt with so i would tend to to think that um minnesota would be likely to to move off of that contract if they get an opportunity to. Because it's like $42 million, something like that. It's a pretty huge cap it.
Starting point is 00:48:14 I mean, it's the last year of his deal. So that's the other part about it is they have an opportunity to either get rid of him and get something for him or you potentially let him walk. Because if they franchise tag him, now with the potential of Aaron Rodgers signing a big contract, Russell Wilson getting traded in, signing an extension, something like that, you've got some big numbers going out there. The franchise tag, I don't know what it would be for Kirk Cousins in there. So there's some interesting options.
Starting point is 00:48:49 I think Kirk Cousins would be an upgrade over Wentz, but I'm not sure how much, like if it would be like a huge upgrade. Now, the one positive part about Kirk Cousins is he's not going to make those stupid throws with his left hand into just throwing up prayers and thinking that the good Lord's going to save him. Kirk Cousins is not going to do that. That was something that Carson Wentz just had a knack for doing. So he's not going to make those stupid decisions, which I think quite honestly, the Colts win two or three more games this past season, or probably at least in the divisional
Starting point is 00:49:29 round of the playoffs, if not for Carson Wentz making stupid decisions. So I wouldn't be against Kirk Cousins, but really it just depends on the compensation that you'd have to give up for him, because he has a huge, huge cap hit, and he's only got one year left on the deal. So you're going to have to give him some kind of an extension. Yeah, $45 million cap hit for Kirk Cousins this year. If the Vikings do trade him now, they would save $35 million against the cap according to over the cap. So they have incentive to get off that contract if they want to.
Starting point is 00:49:59 And maybe they're willing, if they get desperate enough, maybe the Colts and the Vikings can swap quarterbacks and the Colts get up like a third or a fourth round pick. Maybe they get Kirk Cousins. Maybets and the Vikings can swap quarterbacks and the Colts get a third or a fourth-round pick. They get Kirk Cousins. Maybe that could work out for both sides there. That would actually save Minnesota about $17 million in cap space too. Yeah. So they would get a third-round pick, get $17 million in cap space,
Starting point is 00:50:17 and have Carson Wentz there. And then I'm looking at Kirk Cousins' contract as well. I'm just talking hypothetical here. If they do, let's say, pull off a trade, if you immediately pull off an extension for Kirk Cousins' contract as well, just talking hypothetical here, if they do, let's say, pull off a trade, if you immediately pull off an extension for Kirk Cousins, you gain an instant $27 million against the salary cap for an over-the-cap view,
Starting point is 00:50:34 sign you an extension. So you get free up cap space and really not lose any money if you do the trade with Cousins and then sign to an extension right afterwards. So maybe that's something to watch out for there. But one more guy here I wanted to hit on with you via trade, Stephen, before you dive into the last scenarios and kind of tear out the whole list
Starting point is 00:50:52 here for the QB carousel. Jimmy Garoppolo has kind of gained a lot of steam amongst Colts fans the last couple days. I think it's kind of interesting. I mean, reading the TV is a little bit, Stephen, but seeing Zach Kiefer and Stephen Holder spend 10 minutes on our podcast talking about Jimmy Garoppolo, Pat McAfee brings up Jimmy Garoppolo. I mean, it feels like that's kind of like a weird –
Starting point is 00:51:12 on the same day all those guys start talking about Jimmy Garoppolo at the same time. What's your thoughts on Jimmy G to Indy? Because I feel like maybe – I've thought to myself, I've mentioned it to you off the air before. I can see like – it's rare to see a three-team trade nowadays, but I can see like, for instance, it's the Commanders or the Steelers giving the
Starting point is 00:51:30 Colts a third-round pick, but in reality that pick is going to San Francisco and the Colts get Jimmy Garoppolo, so you kind of swap out Garoppolo and Wentz for free there. What's your thoughts on Jimmy Garoppolo? He certainly fits the Frank Reich offense more. He really boosts your ceiling, I think, immediately in the short term.
Starting point is 00:51:45 It's only a one-year evaluation for Jimmy Garoppolo, too, where if it doesn't work out, you can walk away and get a high draft pick next year. But what's your opinion of Jimmy Garoppolo, Stephen, for the Colts? Because he's a guy to me where I think they could win 11 or 12 games with Jimmy Garoppolo if everything falls into place because he's just the opposite of personirsten Wentz where he doesn't really lose you games.
Starting point is 00:52:08 So he doesn't win you games, but he certainly won't lose you games. He's kind of right on – I think he's just barely a little bit better than Kirsten Wentz as far as volatility goes. We don't really see Jimmy Garoppolo have awful games. We've seen Kirsten Wentz before. He's very accurate. He'll take the shots when need be. He's very good when he has weapons for sure.
Starting point is 00:52:25 So I think if you added like a weapon in free agency and like let's say you draft like a Wanda Robinson from Kentucky in the third round to be like a Debo Samuel type, I think maybe that could work out here in Indy, Stephen. If you maybe just flip out Carson Wentz with Jimmy Garoppolo and not really give him any draft capital for him. For a one-year trial for I think a team, honestly, I want to get your thoughts on this too, Stephen.
Starting point is 00:52:44 I feel like Jim Irsay might have a playoff mandate for this Frank Reich and Chris Bauer next year if they want to keep their jobs next year. So I think if there's like a playoff mentality in the line here where you need to make the playoffs to keep your job, I think Jimmy Garoppolo, maybe if you lose a fourth-round pick, might be worth the investment there if you just want to keep your job. But maybe Jimmy Garoppolo could be more of a long-term guy too. Maybe he does play well in Frank Reich's offense yeah Jimmy G I think is
Starting point is 00:53:09 an upgrade over Christian Wentz because you don't have the volatility like you mentioned um Jimmy G is a smart player he's a winner um I think he's like he's like a 66 percent win rate something like that or 600 win rate right around there. He wins a lot more than he loses. And so, you know, as a player, you like that because he doesn't make stupid decisions. If you can flip him, like, in a trade scenario, like you said, and not necessarily lose any draft capital, I think the Colts would do that in a heartbeat.
Starting point is 00:53:42 I will say that I don't think Chris Ballard's job is on the line next year, regardless of what happens. I do think Frank Reich's job is on the line because it was Frank Reich who pushed for Carson Wentz. And if you remember when we talked back last, last off season and they had made the trade, Frank Reich mentioned that he likes to stick his neck out for guys that he believes in. And he stuck his neck out for guys that he believes in.
Starting point is 00:54:06 And he stuck his neck out for Carson Wentz. And Carson Wentz came in and was just a different person than what Frank Reich left when he left Philadelphia. Like, Carson Wentz was just not the same guy, and he had changed. I think that's pretty clear in terms of why the Colts were so surprised with what they got with Wentz. So I think Frank Reich's job is on the line. I don't think Chris Ballard's job is on the line because if you look at Chris Ballard's drafting, his history, everything like that, he just had seven pro Bowlers this year, seven guys that he drafted or brought in or signed to extensions that made the Pro Bowl.
Starting point is 00:54:51 I think the only one that wasn't brought in by him was Ryan Kelly. I think that was it. The other guys were all Chris Ballard guys. So I don't think Ballard shouts online. I do think Reich says because it was Reich that pushed for this trade, and Chris Ballard and's job is on the line I do think Reich's is because it was Reich that pushed for this trade and Chris Ballard and Jim Irsay were on the fence but Reich was the one that pushed it over the finish line so I do think Reich's neck is on the line this next season I don't think that Chris Ballard is going to mortgage the future of the franchise to necessarily save Reich in this.
Starting point is 00:55:30 He's going to do everything he can to get Reich a good quarterback, but he's not going to sit here and say give up like four first-round picks for Russell Wilson. He's not going to do anything crazy, dramatic like that. So I do think that the Colts will be um I think they'll be aggressive in the trade market and quite honest I think they're going to trade for a quarterback um that's where my gut feeling is I do think that it's going to be either Rogers or Wilson um I think Jimmy G is an interesting guy. I think that if he comes to this offense, kind of like what I mentioned with Kirk Cousins, he's not going to make the same mistakes
Starting point is 00:56:15 that Carson Wentz made. He's not going to make those stupid decisions that Carson Wentz made, and they're going to understand the offense, and they're going to have an opportunity to work with the guys in training camp. Assuming Jimmy G stays healthy, which is kind of a big what if for Jimmy G because he's pretty consistently injured, but if Jimmy G stays healthy, he's a great fit for Frank Reich's office because he's accurate, he's smart, he can read a defense and knows where to go. So he'd have a pretty good opportunity here with this offensive line, assuming that they decide to spend some money on the left tackle position
Starting point is 00:56:54 or draft somebody pretty high. I think that Jimmy G would be a pretty decent fit. But in terms of guys being – jobs being on the line, I don't think Chris Ballard's job is on the line at this point I do think Frank Reichs might be one last section here before we dive into all these quarterbacks and maybe just play out a scenario here for listeners listening ahead of what should be a crazy QB carousel for the Colts with knowing our answer already with personal ones probably be on the way out the draft here what's your thoughts on the Colts at 47 Stephen I've
Starting point is 00:57:25 kind of locked in on three guys as realistic options because I think these three guys ahead of them are for sure first-round picks at this point. Probably Malik Willis, I'd say Matt Corral as well, even with the knee injury. I think Kenny Pickett is a first-round pick as well. So that leaves kind of three guys here that I'm focused on here, Stephen, and that is Desmond Ritter of Cincinnati, Sam Howell of North Carolina, and Carson Strong of Nevada. You probably haven't had a chance to watch much of those guys yet. I haven't much either. I kind of dove into those guys a little bit last week, and I probably would say if I had to rank them, I'd probably go Sam Howell first, Desmond Ritter second, and then Carson Strong third from what I've seen so far. I mean, I don't
Starting point is 00:58:04 really think any of these guys are franchise-changing guys. If I had to pick one, I would go with Sam Howell here. But what's your opinion, Stephen, of the Colts kind of pulling a Jalen Hurts with the Eagles and drafting a quarterback at 47, and maybe you keep Wentz around, or if you don't keep Wentz around, you draft a guy at 47, and if it works out, baptism by fire, he's really good and he's your franchise guy if not he's your guy you use the tank for the entire season in 2022 and get a top five pick so what's
Starting point is 00:58:32 your thoughts on the strategy of going with the draft to find your starter next year um it's just going to be tough i think with uh jim mercy's stance of going all chips in, it's hard to justify that without signing some big names. Again, I took him basically a month away from everything, so I have not gotten into the quarterback class much. Just from the limited things that I've read, those are the three guys that i think will probably be there just from looking at different mock drafts things like that and just hearing different things around the league um it's probably going to be howell ritter and um strong
Starting point is 00:59:18 their new carson uh as i think some people have tagged him, rather than old Carson. But, yeah, I'm not sure that I think the draft would be a good place to go. The one thing that I will say is Carson Strong allegedly had a knee injury this past year for Nevada, so it really messed with his accuracy and his mobility, but he still went ahead and played through it so that one it's going to throw off the teeth for him this past season but if you look at what he did in in 2020 I think that he was probably a little bit better there so I mean I don't know it's's tough. When you're not getting a
Starting point is 01:00:07 quarterback in the top part of the draft, it's hard to say that they're going to hit. Very rarely do quarterbacks hit outside of the first round. I think Russell Wilson and Tom Brady are the only major ones. Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, one at the top of the second. There's a handful of quarterbacks that end up being really good that go past the first round, but the majority of them are taking pretty high, and that's for a reason. Yeah, absolutely. One more guy we would cover here usually, but we're not going to,
Starting point is 01:00:44 obviously, with the off the field stuff, Deshaun Watson. I think another thing too with Watson sort of quick on that is that in division, it's not going to happen. I think if anything else, if the Colts were opposite conference or a different division, I think this would very much be a possibility if the Colts were not the same division, but AFC South,
Starting point is 01:01:02 I don't think it's really much of a possibility. Steven, do you have anything else to add in for you? Move on here to our last part going over all these QBs? Yeah, I mean, I don't think they're going to trade him in division. So, I mean, we could probably leave it at that. I will wait to find out what happens with all of these cases. People like to talk about the number of cases that are there. I don't really worry so much about the quantity of cases. It's the quality of
Starting point is 01:01:36 cases when it comes to lawsuits. So I'd be interested to find out what's going on in those cases because the prosecution or the prosecutors down there still haven't decided yet whether to press charges. This has been going on for about a year or so now. So it makes me wonder whether there's anything criminal here um that went on it there's definitely some poor judgment decisions that went on by deshaun wants and i think we can all all agree to that um that i i tend to hold off judgment until we find out what happens with the prosecution of the case and whether the prosecutors actually decide to press charges. Again, civil lawsuits, you can sue somebody for anything. So I don't want to sound callous when I say this, but I'd be interested to find out, you know, what the criminal aspects of it are. I think we can all agree that he's made very poor decisions and he shouldn't have done
Starting point is 01:02:50 what he did because it has led him to this place and he shouldn't have done those things kind of period. But yeah, I tend to want to let the legal system play out before I pass any kind of judgments there. But until that's really sorted out, Deshaun Watson, even if he does get traded, he might end up on the commissioner's exempt list for multiple years. Because remember, Ben Roethlisberger was put on the commissioner's exempt list for, I want to say like eight games or something like that for an allegation, for a single allegation, which again, reprehensible. He should not have done it. Commissioner put him on the commissioner's exemplars for it. Sean Watson has 22 of these things. So the commissioner, based on precedent, could put him on the list for multiple years and effectively end his career if the commissioner really wanted to. I don't think Roger Goodell would necessarily do that.
Starting point is 01:03:54 But I do think that regardless, training Deshaun Watson inside the division is not going to happen. And last one here, I was thinking about as you were talking there, Stephen, about Deshaun Watson. And we can for sure say it's not going to happen with Watson but one very far one as far as possibilities go that I don't think it's going to happen it really has to take a very long time for it to occur because Matt Ryan his cap number this year is 48.7 million dollars but if the Falcons were to trade him post June 1 designation on over the cap. They would save $24 million if he was traded in June instead of in March. So what's your opinion of maybe a post-June 1 trade that the Colts line up here in a couple months with Matt Ryan
Starting point is 01:04:34 and the Falcons do trade away, let's say, Carson Wentz and a future day three pick just to offload that salary with the Falcons? The Falcons save probably around $20-plus million just doing that, getting off the Ryan contract and probably getting a rookie in there and Wentz being the bridge quarterback in that sense. What's your thoughts on Matt Ryan under that scenario, Steve, where kind of everything doesn't fall the Colts way, they're kind of staring like Trubisky or Marriott in the face, and they instead say, let's just go ahead, keep Wentz for now, technically like quotations, keep him for now, and instead I'll just go ahead and line up under the table,
Starting point is 01:05:07 a Matt Ryan trade so we can avoid seeing Mariota or Trubisky behind center next year. Yeah, I don't know if that, again, goes into the all chips in scenario that Jim Erickson talked about. Matt Ryan's on the back end of his career, the back quarter of his career. And so the cap hit, everything like that. He's a good quarterback. He's an upgrade from Wentz.
Starting point is 01:05:32 But if you're looking at a guy, Chris Ballard mentioned in his press conference in the year, he's the first guy that can be the starter for 10 years. That's why when it comes to trade scenarios, that's why I have always kind of felt like Russell Wilson was the more likely option in terms of trading for a quarterback that is going to be like Jim Mercer said, all chips in. That's going to be a top quarterback that is going to put you in a good position for the next seven to 10 years. Matt Ryan, he's going to give you like a couple years, and that's going to be it.
Starting point is 01:06:06 So he's more of a bridge quarterback, and quite honestly, if I were just going to get a bridge quarterback, I'd rather not take on the cap space or give up a pick for Matt Ryan and just sign a guy like Mitch Trubisky or Marcus Mariota. Let's go ahead and dive into that,ven here closing out the show we'll do this first part here where i have seven names i have written down so far as potential options we're going to keep these other two or three names off for now because i think the easy answer would be any of those top three that i'm keeping off here but in the meantime seven names here that i want you to rank
Starting point is 01:06:40 one through seven as far as preference go. And I'll go first here. And the names are Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, and Mitch Trubisky. Knowing for sure the Colts are probably going to move up from Carson Wentz, these seem like the seven most realistic scenarios outside of drafting a rookie QB, which we don't think is going to happen either, for the number 47 overall pick. So those seven names, Stephen, keeping Rodgers and Wilson outside of drafting a rookie QB, which we don't think is going to happen either, for the number 47 overall pick. So those seven names, Stephen, keeping Rodgers and Wilson and maybe Derek Carr off the list for now,
Starting point is 01:07:11 let's say all three of those guys stay put or go elsewhere. Who do you pick off those seven names I just listed, Stephen, to replace Carson Wentz? Let me hear you rank it one through seven here. Run by that list again for me. Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater, Mitch Trubisky. Sorry, I decided to write down the names. Um, so then I didn't screw it all up. Oh, goodness. So with all of these things, if we're saying compensation is equal, and
Starting point is 01:07:52 like the compensation doesn't matter for these guys, then I'm probably going probably Cousins number one, probably Jimmy G number two, probably Trubitsky three, Mariota four, Winston five, Ryan six, then Teddy B seven. If you're looking at what it's going to end up costing to get these guys, like for example, you're probably going to have to give up some kind of draft capital for Cousins or Jimmy G, then I'm honestly probably going Trubitsky 1, Mariota 2, then Cousins 3, Jimmy G 4, Winston 5, Ryan 6, and Teddy B 7. Okay, so we're pretty close on that my seven is like you said not including price here for a moment give me g1 kurt cousins two jamis winston three matt ryan four mariotta five teddy b6 trubisky seven so that's my top seven there for those seven names i just
Starting point is 01:09:04 listed and I think honestly stepping back for a moment or four Devon to the other three names atop the list here too I think we have to imagine the Colts are going to go all in for it the possibility does arise but Jimmy G or Kirk Cousins does I mean does that really sell you much on all chips and Stephen where if all no if those guys do go I I mean, you could easily say that that's a possible reality. None of these guys changed places atop the QB carousel. I mean, you already have boxed yourself in that Carson Wentz is moving on. I have a hard time ever seeing Carson Wentz on the field again for the Colts, the way they kind of dragged him through the mud the last two
Starting point is 01:09:40 months nationally and locally in the media i mean what's your opinion there because it seems like of the most realistic scenarios here if the colts indeed are going to try to upgrade and they have to by a mandate of the owner and jim ursa jimmy garoppolo kurt cousins jamis winston matt ryan marcus mariotta teddy bridgewater mitch trubisky those are the seven names i get familiar with if you're listening out there so What's your opinion of that market if that indeed turns out what to be? Because like you mentioned, Kirk, you might have to trade away. That's not all chips into me. It's just
Starting point is 01:10:12 not. This is why I'm pretty certain that Jim Irsay has kind of, is potentially saying to Chris Ballard hey you need to do something like we decided to do this for Frank to get Carson Wentz it totally blew up in our face we need to do something big because what we're seeing now is, you know, I understand, you know, you love them picks,
Starting point is 01:10:49 but you're seeing teams win without first round picks. Like you're seeing teams like the Los Angeles Rams who I don't think they have a first round pick until like 2029. Like that's their next first round pick. Cause they just trade them all away. Now I don't think that that's necessarily good for cap management reasons, but with the cap consistently increasing, I mean, the cap doesn't matter anymore. That's ultimately what it comes down to. You can trade these first round picks. You can go out and get guys from other teams that things. And I love draft picks. I love the NFL draft is my favorite part of the NFL season. Um, except when the Colts are in the Superbowl or in the playoffs and in the Superbowl NFL draft is my favorite part of the NFL season. So I love draft picks. I just, I feel like when Jim Arce said all chips in,
Starting point is 01:11:47 he's going for either Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, I mean, that has to be the plan. But obviously, if things were not to go awry or go to plan, and they do go awry, I mean, we're looking at a market here, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, and it could be looking very different for the Colts under center in 2022. But last point before we close things out, Stephen, what's your overall opinion of what's going to happen here?
Starting point is 01:12:14 We're going to know more probably in the next week or two with the Aaron Rodgers situation. Russell Wilson, really nice come out about Russell Wilson over the last month plus, so we'll have to see on that one. Kirk Cousins, we're hearing some rumors here and there. This QB Carousel is going to pick up here very soon, Stephen. So what's your thoughts here? Is the Colts officially, as Ian Rappaport let it be known,
Starting point is 01:12:32 let it be known around the league they're officially in the QB market because they're one of the bigger players out there right now. Yeah, I mean, I think you're going to see Carson Wentz get traded. And I think the Colts are going to be big players in this. I think Rabberport's right. I think Chris Mortensen gets his information directly from Jamercy. So I think that that's going to be your pulse of the franchise. I think that the Colts are going to go after –
Starting point is 01:13:01 my gut feeling says the Colts are going to go get Russell Wilson on this. I think that it's going to end up costing the Colts Carson Wentz, who I don't know whether he's going to get traded to Seattle or whether he's going to get traded to another team Whatever pick they get from that team goes to Seattle I think it's going to cost them at least two first round picks, possibly a third round pick this year to get Russell Wilson. And I think that or in the alternative, it's going to cost them
Starting point is 01:13:35 a first round pick and the third round pick this year and say somebody like a Ryan Kelly to throw a little wrench in the system. But my gut feeling says the Colts are going to probably be going after Russell Wilson in this. And it kind of echoes back to just different things that you're hearing from different people. And, you know, what Chris Ballard has said in his press conference,
Starting point is 01:14:03 he wants a guy that's going to be the starter for the next seven to 10 years. That's not Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to play for another seven to 10 years. He's going to play for four, another four years about. not bleak, but you had Colin Cowherd mention Russell Wilson to the Colts as a good option for him and trying to sell Russell Wilson on the Colts. I just feel like there's a lot of subtle signs that are pointing towards Russell Wilson and the Colts. So that's where, if I were going all chips in with the Colts, that's where I would push it for the long term. If they're wanting to just win a championship in the next couple years, I think that they would push it in for Aaron Rodgers.
Starting point is 01:14:54 I agree. That's probably where they're going to try to go. I think Russell Wilson for like two or three first-round picks and curse and went, maybe throw in a player as well. I think all chips in definitely points more so to something like that. Maybe present an offer to Seattle that they just can't refuse. Like let's say, for example, it's two first round picks, a future second round pick, this year's third round pick, Carson Wentz,
Starting point is 01:15:17 and then Ryan Kelly or a Quentin Nelson, or maybe take less off that if you throw a Quentin Nelson in there. I would say once you throw, once you throw, and like here's the thing with Quentin Nelson or maybe take less off that if you throw Quentin Nelson in there. I would say once you throw – and, like, here's the thing with Quentin Nelson. Right now he's got a lot of value because he is now a two-time first-team all-pro, and then he's got the second-team all-pro in there as well, multiple pro bowlers. Quentin Nelson's worth at least first-round pick. And so if you potentially throw in Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson's worth at least first round pick. And so if you potentially throw in Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson and a first round pick for Russell Wilson, like there's your deal, right?
Starting point is 01:15:53 Like that's it. Like you don't need to throw in too much more than that because Quentin Nelson's worth probably at least a first round pick, if not more. You've got to put it now, I'll tell you this. I don't think there's any way in Hades that Jim Irsay lets Chris Ballard trade Quentin Nelson because Quentin Nelson is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Starting point is 01:16:17 And Jim Irsay likes having Hall of Famers and like seeing them go into the Hall of Fame with the horseshoe. So I don't see Quentin Nelson ever getting traded. That's why I brought up Ryan Kelly, because I think that Ryan Kelly is a movable piece where they've got a backup that's already ready to play in Danny Penter. So that's why I wanted to throw out there that it's just an interesting, it's an interesting um interesting
Starting point is 01:16:46 game to to talk about and to play because they there are so many options and who knows what the Colts are going to do because it it takes two to tango as they say um you've got to have a trade partner and if Aaron Rodgers decides he wants to stay in Green Bay that's great for the Colts because now that drives up the value of Carson Wentz and they can move Carson Wentz for potentially more and it gives them an opportunity to go get Russell Wilson the problem with that is it drives up Russell Wilson's value also. So, like, it's an interesting game, but honestly, I think the Colts are going to go after one of those two big game guys. Yeah, and Mike Chappell mentioned today on JMB that a list has been presented from Ballard to Ursa about the quarterback options for this year.
Starting point is 01:17:41 And it makes you think, I think the list probably goes here, option A, let's go call up Rodgers and Wilson. If one of them says yes, that's option A. Option B, let's go to Vegas, see what's up with Derek Carr. Option C, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, let's see what's up with them. Option D, if all those things fail, let's go ahead and just go ahead and sign like a Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota or Mitch Trubisky, one of those guys i
Starting point is 01:18:05 think that like door one door two door three door four i think that's what's behind all those doors at this point for the colts and the one thing we know for sure at this point is that cursing wins is not any of those doors steven so any closing thoughts here as we kind of went i know we went long here but i think our listeners probably enjoyed the in-depth conversation we covered every single angle of the qb carousel for the Colts. The Colts likely moving on from Carson Wentz. So what's your closing thoughts from this exercise? I have a gut feeling the Colts are going to try to push hard for a big-name quarterback.
Starting point is 01:18:38 And if they can't get it, then they are going to go with somebody like a true bits like i don't i don't see them trading for a jimmy g or cousins or derrick carr because those guys aren't going to be the guy to win the super bowl i think that they would go with the middle of the road guy if they can't get russell wilson or aaron rogers go with the middle of the road free agent or trade carson once because he's going to have value you're going to get something for him. Trade Carson Wentz. Go with a middle of the road guy. Give that guy some weapons. Recognize that you're going to probably not be great next year and put yourself in a position to trade up to get that quarterback of the future because next year's draft class is going to be just a lot better if you're in the Colts position this is
Starting point is 01:19:25 something I just thought of but I think it makes an awful lot of sense if the first three doors of these scenarios don't work out and you have to go to a Krabisky or a Mariota for example for one year it makes you think maybe what if the Colts are prioritizing like instead of a 2022 third round pick a 2023 second round pick, that actually really matters a lot. I think that could actually play a real value here. Like, maybe the Colts are holding out. Why it once hasn't happened yet is because the Rodgers thing, but also maybe because a 2023 second of the Colts is a lot more valuable
Starting point is 01:19:56 than a third-round pick in this year's draft. Oh, that – you know, that's a great point because the Colts don't – the Colts don't necessarily – like necessarily if they can't get Wilson or Rodgers they don't want picks in this year's draft they want picks in next year's draft where they can use those picks as collateral to move up I think that's a great point I think that would be the more likely situation yeah and the team that gets Wentz they don't lose any value in this year's draft so maybe we can just solve that on the air for the Colts. I mean, like the Steelers.
Starting point is 01:20:28 Boom, done. Yeah, 20-23 second-round pick. I think that actually makes a lot of sense for both sides here. Make it a contingent second-round pick based on playing time. Yes. It moves up to a first-round pick if it reaches 75%. I'm just joking. Oh, God.
Starting point is 01:20:45 Yeah. Colts got burned by that one for sure. And, I mean, I know Colts fans will say, I know you've been chiming in on this instead of Trent Rearson, Trey, but I think honestly looking back on now with all the certainty, multiple beat writers, multiple national reporters said Carson Wentz is gone. So I'm officially under the assumption now that Carson Wentz will not be the Colts quarterback anymore.
Starting point is 01:21:05 I think that's the worst trade I've ever seen in my life, Stephen. I know Trent Richardson was there for the Colts. Yeah, I put it at Trent Richardson because of this. Because Carson Wentz has shown in the past under Frank Reich that he was an MVP caliber player. And even this year, he wasn't terrible. Like, he wasn't just flat bad Trent Richardson was a running back at the most replaceable position in football and didn't ever run for over three and a half yards
Starting point is 01:21:34 of carry in his career like he didn't do it and so like I look at that and I'm like that's the worst trade ever I know Dan Dockers will tell tell you that this now is the worst trade in NFL history. Not just Colts history, but NFL history. And then Ryan Grigson is the greatest general manager in NFL history. But that's flatly not true based on so much empirical evidence beyond just wins and losses. I do think that this is, this actually, this Carson Wentz trade might actually open up more options for Chris Ballard had won every single trade by a rather large margin in terms of the value that he got for the picks that he gave up. This is the time, this trade, him kind of getting one over on him here might allow teams to be like, well, maybe Chris doesn't. Maybe this would be more even than
Starting point is 01:22:45 i thought it might be with chris collins so teams might be more open to trading with him now because they realize that they're not going to just absolutely get hammered in this trade because when you think about it like the quentin nelson trade with the jets like the jets got crushed in that trade the 49ers trade with deforest buckner like 49ers got like jevon hargrave maybe um in that trade but would you rather have deforest buckner or jevon hargrave who hasn't shown anything yet up until this point even in the trades later in the draft where Chris Ballard would move up he would win the trade and get a great player get a starter level player even in the third fourth fifth round now Chris Ballard has
Starting point is 01:23:37 I think we can all agree that he lost his trade by a pretty wide margin um and it might allow teams like General Ranch to be like, well, maybe he's not infallible. Maybe he doesn't know everything. Maybe we're going to win this trade, so let's go ahead and make a deal. Just kind of spitting spitballing outside the box here on you, but who knows? It sucks for the Colts. You win some, you lose some. Chris Ballard has won more than he lost. This time, he got the short end of the stick. I still don't think it's as bad
Starting point is 01:24:14 as the Trent Richardson trade was because Trent Richardson, one year in Cleveland, and all the beat writers were like, if you just talked to us us we would have told you that he was late to the facility every day he didn't show up to practice he was late for practice all these things that you heard about Trent Richardson where they were like if you just asked us like done a little bit of diligence they would have given you all this information and you wouldn't have made the trade like what what's more telling about the Trent Richardson trade is Gregson saying at some point if he would have traded back off of his luck, he was going to take Trent Richardson with whatever pick that he had, the third overall pick. Because I think Cleveland offered – Mike Holmgren offered the entire draft
Starting point is 01:24:59 class to Ryan Gregson to take Gantrell Luck. So, I don't know. Like, Trent Richardson still is going to be the worst trade in my personal experience. Now, Carson Wentz isn't far off from that, but I still think Trent Richardson was the worst because of positional value and what he gave to the franchise because it was actually, like, worse for the franchise.
Starting point is 01:25:23 Like, Carson Wentz was bad. Well, let me rephr franchise. Carson Wentz was bad. Well, let me rephrase. Carson Wentz was okay. He was bad down the stretch when you really needed him. Kurt Richardson was just never good. You know what's interesting? Just one last closing thought here, Steve, before we end things. I appreciate everyone listening in to today's episode of Locked on Colts.
Starting point is 01:25:41 But honestly, looking at this from a wider lens and how the Colts have gone about things, especially the last couple of weeks when it comes to Carson Wentz and all these leaks out there from local and national media, the Colts are operating, it feels like, from the outside of the game, with a lot of confidence when they don't really have on the surface from what we can see an answer at quarterback. Have you noticed that too, Stephen, where the Colts have kind of not shown Carson Wentz any support?
Starting point is 01:26:09 They're not coming out refuting any of these reports. Interesting. They're moving very confidently, almost like Tampa Bay was last year when the Jameis stuff was going on. Like, oh, is Teddy Bridgewater going to go there? Oh, is he going to go there and replace him? But instead it was Tom Brady behind the scenes, and that thing happens right away a couple years ago do you think the Colts have something lined up here because they're they're acting very confidently at least from what I from my viewpoint like a team that's you know they're they're not they're not acting desperate when
Starting point is 01:26:36 they should be yeah I do think well Chris Ballard's never going to act desperate publicly. I do think it's interesting that you're hearing a lot of information from a ship that's normally very tight. That nothing really gets out. Like the DeForest Buckner deal with San Francisco, that deal was allegedly done weeks ago, weeks prior. And then it wasn't announced until the first day of free agents and everyone's like whoa where did that come from holy moly you had no idea so i think that the colts the fact that all this information is getting out is is interesting the fact that the colts aren't saying anything about it now it's the offseason general manager once they do general manager coach once they do
Starting point is 01:27:25 the end of season press conferences you don't see them again to the combine and so we'll hear from them here in a couple weeks at the combine and see what they have to say then um i know they're going to get a question about it so we'll see what their answer is on it um and if they're real confident and that they're moving on from wins, cause again, like I said, which wasn't terrible, like he was frustrating and he definitely cost you some games, but he wasn't terrible. And it's, it's one of those situations where it's just real interesting. Um, like you mentioned that they're moving in the manner that they're moving,
Starting point is 01:28:09 because I do think that they probably have a deal in place with some team already to make the deal, and it's just waiting on it. It's interesting, Russell Wilson recently deleted all the mentions of Seattle, the Seattle Seahawks, from his social media account, so not saying there's anything there, but just interesting. Steven, as always, appreciate you coming on here today. I know we went a little long, but it was really fun going in-depth here for all the listeners, kind of the QB carousel manifesto for everyone, going over all the scenarios,
Starting point is 01:28:39 what we think is the most realistic in every category, and ultimately give out our predictions. But in the meantime, make sure you follow locked on Colts on Twitter. Make sure you follow Steven on Twitter at nice read Steve. Steve, appreciate the time tonight. Thanks heaven. Have a great one.

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