Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts Reveal Blueprint for Potential Playoff Berth
Episode Date: December 18, 2023The Indianapolis Colts' huge win over the Pittsburgh Steelers shined a light on how they can get through their next three games and punch their ticket to the playoffs. The trenches are once again the ...straw that stirs the drink for the Colts.Find and follow Locked On Colts on your favorite podcast platforms:🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOColts?sid=YouTube📺YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLdpxJspi1hMh5HL7ExpWOQLocked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnNFLFollow Jake and Zach's written work on HorseshoeHuddle.com, and give them a follow on Twitter @JakeArthurNFL, @ZachHicks2, @LockedOnColts, and @ColtsOnFN!LinkedIn Jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at LinkedIn Dot Com slash LOCKEDONNFL. That’s LinkedIn Dot Com slash LOCKEDONNFL to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!DoorDashGet 50% off up to $10 value when you spend $15 or more on your FIRST order, when you download the DoorDash app and enter code LOCKED23. Subject to change. Terms apply.PrizePicksGo to PrizePicks.com/lockedonnfl and use code lockedonnfl for a first deposit match up to $100!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Last minute tickets. Lowest Price. Guaranteed.LinkedInLinkedIn Jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com/LOCKEDONNFL. Terms and conditions apply.FanDuelScore early this NFL season with FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook! Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – if your team wins! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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The Colts showed us all the blueprint for how they can punch their ticket to the postseason.
Let's get to it.
You are locked on Colts.
Your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast.
Part of the Locked On Podcast Network.
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What's up, everyone?
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What's up, everybody?
I am Jake Arthur from horseshoehuddle.com.
And today we're going to go over, like I said, the blueprint for how the Colts,
this Colts team specifically can punch their ticket to the postseason.
Just a few games left.
But this is a team that battles consistency.
And they have just found different ways to survive and get through games.
Saturday against the Steelers was another great example.
But we're going to go through some of the common themes that have found them success this season
and their wins and how it showed up on Saturday in that 30-13 victory over the Steelers.
So first and foremost, man, this team, they're 8-6 now.
They are currently at the playoff start today, the seventh out of seven playoff teams.
The 8-6 record is tied with AFC South opponents, Jacksonville and Houston, for tops in the AFC South.
Jacksonville does hold the top spot.
They have all the tiebreakers.
The whole algorithm for how the postseason is determined, it is Jacksonville, the Colts, and Houston in that order between those three
teams. But it's going to be big. The Colts have three big matchups remaining. Two out of the
three are against AFC South teams, one of them being Week 18 at home against the Texans. I think
we all know that one's circled in huge red marker. But yeah, in general, we're just going to kind of go over how this team wins and what it might look like in these next few matchups.
But they just keep finding new ways.
Again, they were down 13 to 0 right away against the Steelers after a blocked punt and a couple of goal line touchdowns.
It didn't look good.
No Jonathan Taylor in this one at all going in.
Zach Moss got hurt pretty early on.
Didn't even get to see 20 snaps.
Michael Pittman, of course, took that vicious hit that knocked him out of the game with a concussion.
So it didn't look good overall, their chances of winning.
But rest assured, after that 13-0 deficit, they flipped it and they went on a 30 to zero run from there to the end of the game.
They really buckled things down against the Steelers offensively and defensively.
It was just really impressive to see. But again, what is this going to look like in these last few
games? And, you know, a team like that, that's so battle tested and has to find new ways to adapt
and win. How does that fare in the
postseason?
If they're not getting blown out by their opponent, that's a team that can scratch and
claw and stay in it.
I mean, we've seen them win twice in overtime this season.
We've seen them in bad weather.
They've lost two of their three highest passing games, and we've also seen them win with just
55 rushing yards.
So this is a team where there almost is no formula for them. Like I mentioned,
they battle consistency, but there are a few key areas that have been kind of a common denominator
in their wins and they did show up against Pittsburgh. But before we get into all of that,
let's just look at the Falcons this weekend.
They're 6-8.
That team has four games scoring under 14 points offensively.
But on the flip side, they've also allowed less than 14 points in four games.
So that's a team that just kind of Jekyll and Hyde.
Right before I started recording this, actually, there was mention on Twitter of they don't know who they're starting
at quarterback against the Colts this weekend.
So keep an eye on that one.
They are, however, defensively, they've been pretty solid.
They're second in red zone scoring.
So this could be another big opportunity for Matt Gay.
He's obviously been a little inconsistent the last couple weeks as well.
Had a couple missed kicks in each of the last couple games.
But overall, he cashed in enough for the Colts in order for them to win.
It was a comfortable win, but they needed him in order to keep extending things.
So they may very well need him again.
Because with Atlanta, you never know what you're going to get.
They just lost to the one-win Panthers last week in a 9-7 game, I think it was.
So not great for them.
Raiders, even more so.
That's a team that went from losing 3-0 one week to the very next week scoring a franchise record 63 points.
Wow.
I mean, the Raiders going into this one, it looks for the Colts and Raiders.
That is, it looks like one where the Colts should have the clear advantage.
But then you see them have the ability to score 63 points.
And I don't know if any of you watch that.
But that was offense, defense, and special teams.
All three units came to play.
And when that happens, it is hard to beat anyone in the league.
Now, mind you, that Chargers team could just be
totally checked out after they already had a poor record going into it, and then they lose their
quarterback for the season with Justin Herbert. Kind of a recipe for disaster there. The Colts
are going to be a different beast. They have a lot to play for, but at the same time, just two
weeks ago, we saw them be a no-show against the Bengals uh so should the
Colts be favored yes should they win it yes but they cannot take the Raiders lightly and I'm
honestly glad that we just saw the Raiders do what they did because that is a wake-up call going into
that the Colts aren't going to take anyone lightly um but the Raiders showing that they're capable
that kind of ensures that it's it's not possible to take them lightly.
Oddly enough,
that was only the third time this season that they've hit 20 points.
And then looking at this Texan team,
we all know them.
I mean,
the Colts were able to beat them early in the season.
I believe it was week two.
They don't have tank Dell anymore,
but if you've been watching the Texans at all,
Nico Collins has stepped up.
Noah Brown has stepped up.
Dalton Schultz has really turned it on starting about the midway point of the season.
So this is a team that still has weapons.
I mean, assuming CJ Stroud is going to be back pretty soon from that concussion.
He did have to miss the game against the Titans,
but you've got to think here within a few weeks, he's going to be back at least. So that'll be an exciting matchup, but that one could be for the
AFC South. We don't know what's going to go on with the Jaguars. At the very least, it could be
a matchup winner gets into the postseason, whether it's as the division winner or a wildcard spot.
So we don't know, but we're going to go on and I'm going to see some common themes for the Colts, you know, a good recipe for success that showed up against the Steelers here in a second.
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All right, so let's look at this offense and what the Colts offense,
what they were able to do against Pittsburgh.
First thing that jumped out to me, that offensive line was cooking.
I saw a really cool stat from Jim Aiello over at the Athletic, used to cover the Colts for the
Indy Star. The Colts running backs averaged 4.15 yards before contact against the Steelers.
I mean, when guys are getting yards after contact, that's showing that they can create their own yardage.
That's really indicative of an effective running back.
But yards before contact, that means yards before any defender touches them.
That is a great O-line stat, and the Colts turned in a really big performance there.
Their 170 yards was the second highest output of the season.
And mind you, that was without Jonathan Taylor at all.
And Zach Moss only had 19 snaps before he left the game.
So Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson were great.
Both of those guys were able to keep it churned.
And the Colts had that long drive at the end of the third quarter,
end of the fourth quarter, where they just pounded and pounded and pounded.
They were really able to rely on those guys.
And it was all made
possible by the offensive line. Just really good. They did give up three sacks against Gardner
Minshew, but TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cam Hayward, what more can you expect? I would not have expected
the Colts to keep Minshew completely clean in that scenario. But speaking of Minshew, I thought
he was great.
Efficient, got the ball out quick.
You could argue this was probably his best game.
The Colts, you know, we'll get to this later,
but Minshew and the Colts didn't turn the ball over.
When you look at his adjusted completion percentage,
which takes out drops and like throwaways to the sidelines,
spikes and things like that, You know, actual attempted passes.
He completed 80.8% of those.
There were three drops from the Colts.
I'm sure everyone got a little aggravated with that at some point,
although it did not wind up to bite them in the butt.
7.7 yards per attempt is really nice as well.
Just those RPO and the quick read things.
You get that guy just one or two things to have to go through he gets it out quick the ball moves especially when you
can get yards after catch that's big uh he's also starting to form a really nice report on those
you know those out routes with uh with mo ollie cox the the post route towards the sideline
um so that's that's good i mean mo did drop, but we've seen it a couple weeks in a row now,
some touchdown score there.
And then most importantly, taking care of the ball.
Zero turnovers against Pittsburgh, and the Colts are now 3-0 this season
when they have no turnovers.
They're actually 6-2 when they have one or fewer turnovers.
So when that
offensive line is rolling when Minshew is efficient and when they're taking care of the ball obviously
those things are easier said than done you're not going to get all three of those every week
but those are some common traits for the Colts to win especially you know they kind of live and die
by how Minshew is going and you know the offensive, the offensive line, being able to have 170 yards, that takes a lot of pressure
off of Minshew because the defenses do then have to respect the run even a little more.
So him taking care of the ball, huge too.
We've seen those games where he throws the picks, where he fumbles every time he gets
hit.
So the more he is able to take care of the ball easily, the better.
So coming up,
we're going to talk about the defensive side and some common things and how that group is really
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All right, so Colts defense against the Pittsburgh offense.
That thing was unreal. It was a night and day performance against Mitch Trubisky rather than Jake Browning. Throw Mason
Rudolph in there as well at the end of the game. But they have four sacks again, which is great
because they had been averaging four or so sacks for about a month leading into the Bengals game,
and then they didn't get any sacks at all.
So they got back on it.
Four against Pittsburgh.
Nine quarterback hits as well.
Against the run, Jalen Warren, Najee Harrison, Trubisky.
I took out the two runs at the very end of the game for Pittsburgh
because the Colts were playing prevent defense,
and it was inconsequential to the actual total.
But they carried the ball 22 times for 61 yards on the day.
That's a 2.8-yard average.
I was really impressed with the Colts' goal line tackling as well
against Warren and Najee Harris.
They did allow a little touchdown from Mitchell Trubisky on the goal line but there was no clear
lane for him to get through like he had to extend his arm over just to get it and EJ Speed even kind
of made him pay made him fumble but Trubisky was able to get his his hands across the goal line
first but to me goal line tackling is indicative of how a team really is against the run.
And the Colts were staunch in that area, which shows that they're getting better against the run again.
Grover Stewart's back.
Juju Brents is back.
EJ Speed missed a game, but he's back.
So those guys getting back in there is really helping a lot.
But like I mentioned, four sacks, nine hits on the day.
Dayo Odengbo had one and a half.
Samson Ebicom, one and a half.
And then Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner, they split one as well, each with a half.
I thought those guys in particular, especially Dio, Grover, and Buck, played out of their minds.
Those are guys you could see the hustle all over the tape.
Just really getting after it.
If a run splits out wide, they're chasing it down.
They've got their nose right up in there when it's a run up the middle.
So Grover's return has been a big welcome addition.
And Zach and I are actually going to talk about that a little more in depth on the next
episode.
EJ Speed as well, if you want to include the whole front seven.
I thought this was arguably his best game.
Ten tackles.
He had one official forced fumble against Najah Harris.
Again, he had the other one that didn't count
because Mitchell Trubisky was able to extend the ball over the goal line in time.
That guy's got it.
He's kind of got this knack for forcing fumbles now.
We've seen it even before.
He was an extensive defensive player.
He would make big plays on special teams.
So this guy, I thought he had a rough week or so recently,
and then he, of course, missed the Bengals game,
but he's back and he's playing in a big way.
So round of applause for him.
Another big thing, this defense was opportunistic
and took the ball away.
They forced three takeaways
in this one. And when you win the turnover battle by three, that's always going to be in your favor.
You're going to win that pretty much every time. Julian Blackman had a fumble recovery on EJ
Speed's forced fumble and interception. And then our guy Nick, had his first career interception as well. So the Colts, three takeaways.
They're six and two on the season when they force two or more.
So, you know, we've seen offensively, take care of the ball, don't turn it over.
You're going to win.
Defensively, you have multiple takeaways.
You're probably going to win as well.
So that's a good blueprint for a lot of teams, but again, we've seen the Colts really
struggle to string things together for multiple weeks in a row in one area. They always have to
find new ways to win. One area is lacking. They have to make up for it somewhere else, and they
rarely get a full team effort, but the Steelers game was a rare instance of it. They probably
only had two or three of these this season and wins.
But it's great.
I mean, it just goes to show you these battle-tested teams
can just find ways to win if they don't get too far behind.
This isn't a team that's built to come from far behind
with their quarterback situation.
And then, you know, we got Michael Pittman banged up.
The tight ends are always a little banged up.
But, yeah, if they check off most of these areas in a game more often than not,
they're going to come out on top.
So that is it for us today.
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