Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts Shutout Texans 31-0 + Bye Week Assessments

Episode Date: December 9, 2021

On today's episode, Evan and Stampede Blue's Stephen Reed go over the Colts' 31-0 victory over the Texans on Sunday. What were our biggest takeaways?Then, we go over some season thoughts in the bye week. What's stood out the most to us so far?Closing out the show, we explain why a 3-1 finish, 1-1 split between New England and Arizona, will get Indy into the playoffs at 10-7. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello, everyone. Welcome to your latest episode of Locked On Colts for the Locked On Podcast Network. Today, as always, your host, Evan Settery, joined by Stephen Reed of Stampede Blue. We're here to recap a dominant Colts victory over the Houston Texans on Sunday, 31-0. It was really kind of a snoozer in the second half there because we already knew the game was over. The Colts defense was dominant in this game as well, Stephen. But before we do so, I want to remind you, if you haven't already, to make sure locked on, Colts is your first

listen every day. Stephen, how you doing today? Hey, Evan, I'm doing well today. How are you? I'm doing great, doing great. We're here on a Wednesday night to go over a Colts win. As I mentioned, we'll close up the show talking through the season so far what they do the rest of the way in the final quarter of the season but let's go over that game real quickly Stephen because it was really a simple formula the Colts fall against this Texas team that was quite frankly awful on both sides of the ball I know the Colts struggled a little bit in the first half and they eventually opened it up but opened it up in the second half offensively win 31-0 Jonathan Taylor in the defense stole the show in this one.

I mean, what was your biggest takeaways from that game? Because I think we kind of knew when the Colts got up even like 10-0 or 17-0, this one was already over. Yeah, it was one of those games where once they went up, honestly, once they went 14-0 and then 21-0 early in the third. You're like, all right, this is done. You guys can pack it in. If any of you guys follow me on Twitter, at NiceReadSteve, you could see that early in the fourth quarter I started being like,

all right, let's go ahead and start benching our starters. There's no chance that Houston has an opportunity. But it was great for the Colts. They put together their probably most complete game of all four quarters on both sides of the ball in terms of offense and defense. And they, they did what they had to do. It's gotta be a great feeling for them heading into the bi-week and you can't ask for a better,

a better way to go into the bi-week than a 31 to0 win on the road in a division game against really any team. It doesn't matter whether it's the Texans or not. To get a shutout on the road in the NFL, especially in the current iteration of the NFL, it's very, very hard. So it's quite an accomplishment for them, and I'm really happy for the Colts going to the bye week that they've got that big win, and they're on the right track again after having that tough loss to Tampa Bay just real quick before we dive over to another topic here but Stephen the Colts won the season series against the Texans 62 to 3 just an absolutely dominant performance by them in their two games I mean watching the Texans twice this year especially on Sunday I mean I

have no clue how this team has won a game this year. I mean, that has to be one of the easily most worst teams I've seen in a very long time taking the NFL field. And how they somehow lucked into a win or two this season is pretty incredible to me because that team is just unwatchable. What's wild to me, more so than that they won a game, what's even more wild to me is that they won the week prior against Tennessee. That's what's wild to me. Is this Houston team that the Colts

played beat Tennessee the week prior. It's wild to me that that happened and it shows just how injured Tennessee is. I feel like if the Colts played Tennessee outside of those first six games of the season, the Colts would win like 99 out of a hundred times. But because they played them early in the season, when you had an injured quarterback that had no practice, you had injuries to your offensive line. You know, at that point,

Eric Fisher hasn't hadn't been back and hadn't even really been practicing. Quentin Nelson was injured. You had all these injuries to the Colts. I feel like the Colts would have beaten the Tennessee Titans if they flipped the schedule and they played them twice in the back half. I think the Colts would win both of those games. It would be a season sweep. What's wild is that Texans teams is so bad that they still beat the Titans the week prior yeah it's really crazy that how they beat the Titans this year but let's go over to Jonathan Taylor for a second because we

don't need to talk much about this game it was just a dominant blow of victory I wanted to wrap it up though on Jonathan Taylor 32 carries in this game they really force fed him the ball in this one he got easily over 100 yards in this game as well scored a couple touchdowns I think quite honestly if it wasn't for that the touchdown pass Carson Wentz had and maybe a or not yeah a couple plays here or there where John Taylor could have scored I mean he could have another four touchdown game on Sunday if they really just kept feeding the ball but 32 carries in this game Steven what was your thoughts on the workload there and just another performance by Jonathan Taylor, where he's truly showing,

I think he is the best back in the NFL now. I think it was awesome for Jonathan Taylor and the way he played. It's pretty clear he's going to become at the very least, Jonathan Taylor is going to be offensive player of the year. I think that that's probably going to be locked in for them. I honestly think that Taylor's going to be offensive rookie of the year. He could be an MVP candidate. Again, if Frank Reich uses him appropriately

and doesn't just kind of forget he's there, then I think that he's got an opportunity to be a real contender for the MVP because, again, even through 13 weeks of the season, you don't have a quarterback that's just cutting shoulders above everybody else. You could argue Kyler Murray is out there with Arizona. Tom Brady is always up there. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to get voted because of his vaccination thing.

I don't think he's ever going to win another MVP because of that, whether fair or not. But this is a year that a running back could win. And Jonathan Taylor, he's shown week in, week out, that if you give him carries, he's going to break one. He's going to pretty consistently going to get you five yards of carry. He's going to get a couple in there for 10 or 15, even though Houston loaded the box on the Colts, the Colts still ran it,

still was effective and still kept Houston honest. So it opened up play action passes, which is what you want. And that's what you want with a quality running back. So it's really great that that happened for the Colts. Real quick before we dive over to our next segment of the show, talking through the Colts' season so far, our biggest assessments. Jonathan Taylor, just one more point on him, Stephen. He's on pace for 24 touchdowns and over 2,200 scrimmage yards,

probably the most dominant season by a Colts running back in franchise history, I would say. He's very close, if he keeps the same pace, to breaking Edron James' scrimmage yard record for the Colts as well. I mean, just what's your takeaway from John Taylor this year? We saw in the second half of his rookie season how dominant he could be, but he's built upon that and got even better. I mean, this guy is a true superstar.

He's the bell cow of this offense. I think he's the true star of this entire Colts team now, already in the second season of his career. I mean, what's your takeaway so far from Jonathan Taylor this season? Because this guy is, I think, a legitimate superstar now. If you don't think so, I don't think you're watching enough Colts football. Yeah. I mean, quite honestly, he's a legitimate superstar,

and he's a humble superstar, which is something that you also don't see a lot of times, especially in this age of social media. He is very humble. I don't know if everybody's gotten an opportunity to see the Hard Knocks episode from last week or a couple weeks ago where he met Lenny Moore. That was a really cool moment for Jonathan Taylor to meet former Colts Hall of Famer. It's one of those situations where he's already probably, honestly, I think he's probably the most complete back in the league. And yeah, that's including a healthy Derrick Henry. I really do think that Jonathan Taylor is that good. And I don't think it has to do a whole

lot with the offensive line. Yeah, the offensive line plays a part of that. But Jonathan Taylor, just his ability to just run away from DBs. He gets that hole and then he's gone. At his height weight, it's wild that he has two rushing touchdowns over 70 yards. I think he's clocked the two fastest times in the NFL this year as well, according to all the analytics stuff and those speed tracking things that they have. So he really is such a complete back because he can catch the ball out of the backfield. And that's something that coming out of Wisconsin, people really kind of mocked him for and really kind of gave him a hard time for it

because they didn't pass the ball to the running back at Wisconsin. You didn't need to with the offensive line that they had. So Jonathan Taylor, he's really grown into a complete back. You see him be able to handle blitz pickup, everything that you want a three-down back to handle. And it's really cool to see that happen for a guy in his second year given the amount of work that he puts in. It's just a really cool situation.

I totally agree with you there. Let's go ahead and dive into our next segment of the show. Before we do so, again, make sure you subscribe to the Locked on Colts podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify, wherever you listen to your podcasts. We're with you guys almost every single day to bring you an insight on the Indianapolis Colts. Does this sound familiar? You've got one device that lets you catch the game live,

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but also Carson Wentz. We already had on Jonathan Taylor, so we're going to have to head on him, but the defense, some other players as well. Let's start off with Carson Wentz here, Steven. 2,948 yards, 22 touchdowns, 23 if you include his rushing touchdown. He only has five interceptions so far this year as well. He's playing very efficient football. He's playing a Philip Rivers type of role, I would say, in this offense, but even more of a higher ceiling. He's a very good game manager. He can take over a game when need be.

If you throw out those first three weeks, Steve, when he was coming back, he didn't have any training camp time due to his foot injury, or the Tennessee game in week three where he's barely a shell himself in that game from week four on I mean he's pretty very efficient I mean I would say maybe he's had one game over that span where you say he had a bad game and that was against Tennessee at home where they should have won that game but Carson Wentz made a couple really bad mistakes in that one but outside of that if you throw out the first three weeks Steven I mean nine out of ten games now carson wentz has played like a legit franchise quarterback and above average quarterback i would say what's been your overall takeaways of carson wentz so far this year because i think

with the way wentz has played you have to imagine it's gonna be even better next year with a full offseason and if chris bauer invests more weapons and via the draft and free agency to get once going as well year two of carson wentz going to be a lot better than year one, and the price of that, a third-round pick last year, a first-round pick this year, you do that every time he turns into your franchise quarterback. Yeah, honestly, I've been really happy with the progression of Carson Wentz and how he's grown in the offense.

It's really been consistent with how Andrew Luck grew in the offense with Frank Wright when he played. It was slow to start. They were pretty conservative, and then they started to open it up. You really see the extra added benefit that Carson Wentz offers with his ability to move outside the pocket, which is something you didn't have last year with Phillip Rivers, but Carson Wentz has a just a massive arm he's really he tends to under throw guys on on deep balls but when he gets an opportunity to really step into it he can let it rip uh like you saw with the throw a couple weeks ago to Ashton Doolin against Tampa Bay he didn't really throw deep this past week but that he didn't need to um and you're seeing him hit those crossers.

You're seeing him hit the wheel route with running back out of the back field, which is something that a lot of us fans were really concerned of him coming out of Philadelphia, where he would have those opportunities and he just didn't take them. And he would always like, look over there and be like, ah,

that's too short. Let's go for something deep. Let's go. Let's let's risk it. Let's wing it. And he would throw into double coverage or whatever. He's making smart decisions this year. And I think that this is only the tip of the iceberg of what you can get out

of Carson Wentz. I think that he can be even better than what he's been. And he's probably been a top 12 quarterback. I know that there's a, the analytic out there, DVOA, since week four, which is those first three weeks of the season, his first three losses when he's coming off that foot injury, no practice, no training camp. He was bottom of the league in terms of DVOA, not great. But since week four, week four on, he's been like sixth overall, right around there. He's been a top ten quarterback. And I think that can win you games.

It can win you playoff games. He doesn't make any stupid mistakes. He doesn't cost you a lot of things. And so if he continues to be consistent, make good decisions, and doesn't turn the ball over, he's got the ability to make that big play when you need it and that's all you can really ask for so i think carson once he's got just a i think it's a steal of a if he continues this trajectory uh in terms of the draft pick compensation at this

point we already know that round one pick for 2022 is gone to philly uh it's gone. There's no way that, there's practically no way that he can, we can recoup that or drop it to a second. And you know what? You make that trade 100 times out of 100 if this is the type of quarterback that you're going to get. So I think Chris Fowler is really happy. I think Philadelphia is really happy with what they got out of it. And I think the Colts, though, they're ecstatic with what they've got. And Frank Reich is happy that he was able to see the Carson Wentz that he remembers in Philadelphia and not the shell of himself that it was last year. Here's a crazy stat, Stephen. I was just

looking at his ESPN profile. And if I would have told you before the season started, Carson Wentz raked sixth in QBR at 58.5. He's above Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, name a few. And also if you go over to EPA, his expected points added, he ranks sixth in the NFL and EPA as well. The top six for that, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Carson Wentz. I mean, if I would have told you before the season started, Stephen,

he would be number six overall in both QBR and EPA. He would be in an EPA category alongside Mahomes, Allen, Brady, and Herbert. I mean, you would take that every single time, right? I mean, that's bordering on an elite quarterback right there as far as advanced metrics go. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, like I said, he's been great, but this entire time he's been, I mean, like I said, he's been great this entire time. He's been, I mean, yeah, he's had a hiccup game here or there, but I think he's been well above expectations and just as goodept the Colts wide receivers have been really over the last decade or so since Reggie Wayne left and obviously T.Y. Hilton had a good run for about six seven years with Andrew Locke but Michael Pittman's 882 receiving yards in 13 games Stephen is already the

most of any Colts wide receiver since 2018 with T.Y. Hilton he's on pace for over a thousand yards this year. He already has five touchdowns this season as well. What's been your assessment of Michael Pittman? Because Chris Ballard bet big on Pittman this year. He didn't go out and spend big money for a while this year. He wanted to wait and see what Pittman could give them in his second year, and he's certainly delivering that. I mean, this guy is a legit wide receiver one,

if not a high-end wide receiver two. I'm curious to see what the Colts do this offseason to add another piece alongside Pittman, because this guy is a monster down the field. We've seen those contested catches as well. I just love what I've seen from Pittman. I think he's already the second most dangerous guy on this offense. Yeah, I mean, you go back and listen to the podcast over the summer

when you and I talked about this and what we projected Michael Pittman to get, and I think it was pretty straightforward that I thought that he could get over a thousand yards receiving. I don't remember what the number was for receptions on it, but I was definitely on board with over a thousand yards. So what he's doing right now isn't surprising to me. It's exactly what I thought he would be doing, which is good because I don't like to be surprised, unless if it's a good surprise that in this situation, I was really high on him coming to the season. So it would have been kind of a pretty bad surprise if I was talking about him now and not being satisfied with it.

But yeah, Michael Pittman Jr. is just a fantastic wide receiver. He does everything you want. He's really good at contested catches. I thought the – again, this past week is tough to talk about. So we can talk about the whole season. I think that he's done a really great job of getting open and being able to work himself downfield. It's one of those – he's a bigger receiver that can play smaller,

and he can play outside and be fine. He can go across the middle, and he's great. He doesn't get those alligator arms. You see him make catches in traffic. He's competitive as a blocker. Honestly, he's the exact type of receiver that the Colts have wanted this entire time. He's not a liability in the run game. He's going to be in there.

He's going to make the contested catches. He's smart about where he's at on the field. He makes sure he runs his routes past the first down marker, so he doesn't have to worry about, like, on a third down, getting caught short. He runs the marker gets himself into first down territory and then makes a catch it's he's such a good wide receiver with reliable hands that I think people were on him a little bit too unnecessarily and during the Tampa Bay game because there were some other issues going on there but I feel like overall in the course of the season,

this is exactly what I thought it'd be. So I'm really excited that he's shown out and has proven us right on that. It's always nice to be right, because it doesn't happen as often as I'd like it to. We've been hammering this point all season long, Stephen, and I've been doing it especially on Locked on Colts' Twitter account. But looking at this wide receiver group, outside of Pittman, there is truly no one that really scares you as a defense.

I mean, it's unfortunate, again, Paris Campbell got injured again this year. He should be back around Christmas, but I think it's official that he has the injury-prone label on him. He just can't stay healthy for more than a month or two at a time, and just these unfortunate breaks here and there. You can't trust Paris Campbell anymore. Zach Paschal, I think, is more of a wide receiver four than a wide receiver two. He's really proved that over the last two months

of the season. Really not doing much at all in heavy workload as far as snaps go. T.Y. Hilton, Steven, crazy enough. I mean, looking at his numbers this year, just falling off a complete cliff as far as targets per game, snaps per game. T.Y. Hilton's only playing 50% of the snaps so far this season when he's playing, which really goes to show you that he's kind of getting phased out of the offense, not really being used much anymore. More so as a decoy than anything else. We kind of projected that last year. We were talking about what to do with T.Y. Hilton. They probably should have let him

walk. I think if they would have used that money somewhere else, they'd be a lot better off if they would have got a pass rusher or a cornerback, for example. But going over T.Y., going over Pascal, Ashton Dewan's made a good impression on me recently. He maybe could be your Zach Paschal next year. You let Paschal walk, but everything else.

I mean, Campbell was being unreliable due to injuries. T Y Hilton is, I think is on his last legs. You're probably going to retire at season's end. Honestly, I can't see a team out there that wants to go out and sign to a hill with the way he's played this year.

And then Zach Paschal probably leaves in free agency as well. This wide receiver group needs a massive overhaul. Steven. I mean, what's your opinion on what the Colts need to do? I think it's finally time that Chris Barrett comes to the realization he needs to pay up for a big wide receiver in free agency, especially if he wants to make the Carson Wentz thing work.

Yeah, I mean, I think it's pretty clear that he needs to make a move in free agency this year. It's not been pretty. I think that's kind of being kind. T.Y., he is what we thought he was, which is unfortunately not as good as we had hoped he'd be this year. Unfortunately, it's been kind of a

rough go of it this year for for ty he's not not the same not the same player he used to be and so that it's kind of frustrating obviously as colts fans to see that happen especially after colts fans really came to bat uh for him um over the course of the free agency and they did the you know TY, bring TY home and all this stuff and all that. And so it's, I think you're going to see Chris Ballard finally go out and, and dip into the wide receiver market. And one of the reasons why I say that is because where they're going to be picking in the second round of the 2022 NFL draft,

where their first pick is going to be, unless they trade up is there's not going to be a wide receiver there that can come in and make an immediate impact and normally wide receivers even first round wide receivers sometimes take a year or two to get used to the physicality of NFL defensive backs so I think he is really going to look into the free agent market this year for wide receiver and free agency this year is pretty good for the wide receiver market. In terms of 2022, it's I personally think that they should go after somebody like Michael Gallup.

I think he's going to be still expensive, but he's going to be on the cheaper end of those elite style wide receivers. The, the things you worry about with guys like Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, or Allen Robinson, Devontae Adams, you know, those guys are gonna be super expensive. So are you going to want to pay up for those guys? Chris Godwin is another wide receiver that I don't see Tampa Bay letting get away. But I think there's enough guys in free agency that Chris Ballard realistically is probably going to take a dip into it this year because the other thing to consider is he doesn't have a lot of his own free agents. They're going to be going elsewhere and signing big money

contracts. So this is a year where he could potentially kind of go ahead and try to cancel out whatever compensatory pick he'll get in 2023. I know this is like far down the line kind of stuff that people are having to consider. But I really think that Chris Ballard would have been better off investing that money in T.Y. elsewhere. And because of that, he's going to have to go and invest big money in a wide receiver this offseason. Because again, you've got to find somebody that's going to step up.

And I think Ashton Doolin actually has probably been there. Their most reliable second receiver, which is wild because he's kind of an afterthought, but he's got some speed on the outside and he goes any blocks. He's a little Mr. Everything. He should be an all pro special teamer this year. Hopefully that, that happens. And then, yeah, Zach Paschal's been a little bit disappointing, and the same thing as T.Y. Hilton.

I thought Paschal was a guy that would be able to make it through, but he's been kind of disappointing this year, and T.Y. is a shell. He's a ghost of his former self. Yeah, it's disappointing the way the Warriors series has been this so far this year. I am intrigued by Michael Gallup. Another guy like Christian Kirk or DJ chart makes a lot of sense. One of those high mid tier free agents.

I, we all know Chris Brown's not going to break the bank for someone like $20 million plus for wider receiver. So going after a guy like a Gallup for like 10 or 12 million per year, Christian Kirk for less than that, I think makes a lot of sense. And maybe you keep Paris Campbell around for next year. You can have him in the slot if it doesn't work out.

Maybe you draft a guy this year in like day three of the draft as a speed guy in case Campbell gets hurt again. You have someone in the back burner there. But Ashton Dillon, I think, is wire zero four next year at this point to replace Zach Paschal. Let's move on to our last part of this before we dive into our last segment of the show. Going over the last few games of the regular season here, Stephen.

What's your overall assessment of this defense? Because obviously they've played teams like Houston and Jacksonville, which has helped inflate the numbers a little bit. But it's been kind of a rollercoaster ride for this defense so far this year. Inconsistent pass rush again. Obviously they've been a lot on Quiddie Payne and Dio, but it hasn't worked out so far. Quiddie's definitely looked a lot better, though,

over the last four or five weeks of the season. What's your assessment of the secondary, though, too? Because Rakia Sin and Isaiah Rodgers could be their future, I think, cornerback duo next year. I'm to the point where maybe you draft a guy, maybe you sign just a veteran free agency as a depth guy, but I'm very confident Isaiah Rodgers and Kenny Moore and Rakia Sin as their corners next year.

So what's your overall opinion on how the defense has done this year and just looking outside of that, the future of this defense as well? Yeah, I think the defense is – it's tough to assess it because in terms of the overall picture for this year is because of the injuries. Like you had Julian Blackman go down. He would have probably been an all-pro candidate at free safety. Kyrie Willis missed time. And then you had Tyquan Lewis go down, who was having a breakout season this year,

which is – he was having such an awesome season, so it really sucks for him that the injury happened when it did. But overall, I think the defense is coming along. I think they're getting – now that Quitty and Dio are getting more snaps and getting more experience, you're seeing Quitty, like, figure it out on the fly, which is really cool because sometimes it takes a little bit for pass rushers to really kind of grasp the concept of, hey, I can't just run by people anymore, or I can't just run over people anymore, like they were able to do in college. You hear Quitty talk on the sidelines, and you

saw this on Hard Knocks, talk about how he's got to come back and do a counter move and really do that refinement that a lot of players lack in their pass rush skills, especially in those first couple years. And you could see him and Dio working together. I think in terms of the secondary, the cornerback position, I'm feeling pretty good about for the future of that because I think Isaiah Rogers has shown that he's very good over there. And Rakia Seen has been an elite corner this year. I know that there are some people that will try to bash him

because of what's happened in years past. But the fact is, this year he's been really good. And you can't fault him for that. You know, you can't fault him for those past mistakes when he's been really good this year. Kenny Moore is the most, I mean, I think he's the best nickel corner in the NFL. And I don't think that that's a stretch to say. I do think that they need to look for more depth that's secondary in terms of the safety position.

And I think they need to find some linebackers too. Because you could tell with Darius Hobbled there at the beginning of the season, he was a little bit slower. He still got that ridiculous hand-eye coordination on his punches. But the fact is the Colts really do need to find some depth there at linebacker as well. You feel good about Bobby O'Kara K and Darius is your starters, but you really need to find somebody to be there just in case something, something happens. But I think the safety position and then, you know,

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and BetOnline is always where the game is. Let's dive into our last part of the show, Stephen. Going over the last four games of the Colts regular season. Obviously, there's a bye week this week, so we have time to reassess this team as a whole. But when you look back at it now, you have the last four weeks where the Colts have to go 3-1 over the stretch, I think, to secure a playoff spot. I think 10-7 will get them in. But if you break up into two-week portions here, I think if you have a split between New England and Arizona,

I think you have to win one of those games. You can't afford to lose both of them. If you just split one of them, even if you lose New England, I think you have to win Arizona and vice versa. If they beat Arizona after they lose to New England, that's definitely a good thing to do because I think you need to go three and one of these final four games. I think the last two games, Vegas at Jacksonville, you have to win both those games there.

So I think splitting the next two, winning the last two is how you get in. Steven, what's your assessment of these last four games? Because it's going to be very tough the next two weeks, but I feel like Vegas is kind of falling off a cliff a little bit the last month or so. They've really gone downhill. Jacksonville at Jacksonville is always tough with the playoffs on the line. I think John Taylor would go wild in that situation.

So what's your takeaways from these last four games? I think it's going to be a very tough first two weeks, but I think the last two weeks could be pretty soft for them. Yeah, I think the Colts have a great opportunity. I honestly think they could go 4-0 in these last four games. I do think that they need to go at least 3-1 if they're going to make the playoffs. And I think that that's viable, that they're going to do that. It's more important that they beat New England in Week 15 at home

versus Week 16 at Arizona, you know, out there in Phoenix on Christmas Day. I know that you might be in attendance there for that one. So it'll be tough for them to win out there in the desert. And then you got to win 17 and 18. But if they go three and one with those losses, I feel pretty confident that they'll at least sneak in as the seven seed into the playoffs. And what's wild to me is if you do, ESPN has the playoff machine, so their simulator, and you go and you pick games. The Colts win the last four games,

and they go 4-0. They legitimately could end up as the number one seed in the AFC. If they go 3-1 and the same scenario plays out, they could end up as the seven seed. That's how tightly packed all of these teams in the AFC are. And so the margin for error is razor thin for them. They can't lose two games. They have to go at least three and one if they do that. I think there's like 89% chance that they make the playoffs according to a 538. If they go four and O uh there's basically no chance that they don't make the playoffs and they end up generally end up either as the five seed or the one seed uh because they would have your your tiebreakers over the buff the bills the patriots the chiefs based on conference record uh same thing with with the bangals or the Ravens.

Because, yeah, there's a whole bunch of fun tiebreaker scenarios that come into play. But honestly, I feel confident that the Colts could go 4-0, at the very least 3-1. If they get to be 3-1 and make the playoffs as a wild card, they are a team that nobody wants to see in the playoffs because they are probably going to be one of the hotter teams going into the playoffs. And they run a style of play that is conducive to winning in the playoffs.

And so I think that if they can split this, the next two games with a new England and an Arizona, and then they win those last two, I think they're in. Yeah. What's crazy about the, how tight the AFC is this year Stephen is that if the Colts do make the playoffs for this show if they do go three and one at least like you mentioned this team is not a one you want to go up against in January football elements and inclement weather because we saw it in Buffalo I mean they went and destroyed Buffalo at their own game ran John and Tara down their throat and wasn't close. They won 41-15. I think in a different atmosphere, whether it be Foxborough, Buffalo,

Baltimore, Tennessee even, I think this Colts team reminds me an awful lot of the 2019 Titans team that just ran Derrick Henry, had a solid defense, didn't turn their ball much. They made the AFC title game and almost beat the Kansas City Chiefs. I think this is a very similar formula, maybe in a better team than what the 2019 Titans were, Stephen. This team is very, very dangerous if they make the playoffs. Yeah, and they're very dangerous because, like you said, it's because of Jonathan Taylor, because he's such an elite running back, because Carson Wentz doesn't make stupid mistakes and doesn't put the ball at issue

or put the ball in harm's way very often because the offensive line is so good plus the defense plays hard they play fast and it's hard to run against them like that's that's going to be the interesting thing coming up in week 15 against the Patriots is because Mac Jones threw the ball three times against Buffalo they ran 44 times or something like that against Buffalo and everybody was like oh Mac Jones is great. Like he threw the ball three times, guys. Come on. He didn't see anybody.

And so I feel like the Colts have a real opportunity to, no matter where they play in the playoffs, if it's one of those times where the Colts are the least, the team you want to play the least, if you are Buffalo, if you are Cincinnati, if you are Baltimore or New England, those cold weather cities, you have no interest in having the Colts come to town because the Colts play a better brand of football for your environment than what you guys would get if they came to Indianapolis. Yeah, it really is just an awesome situation to Colts right now. If they just take care of their own business, they're in a really good spot come playoff

time. But, Stephen, I appreciate you always coming on the show. Make sure to follow Stephen on Twitter if you haven't already. Colts fans, at NiceReadSteve. Go listen to his work as well over on Stampede Blue. In the meantime, make sure you're subscribed to Locked on Colts. And also, have a great night because it is Hard Knocks night, Stephen. So I imagine within the next hour or so,

you'll be watching Hard Knocks like everyone else will be. So I appreciate you coming on. All right. Thanks, Evan. Have a good one.