Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans: Player Who Will Cause Win/Loss, and It Isn't C.J. Stroud

Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up, everybody? This is Jake Arthur from Lockdown Colts and HorseshoeHuddle.com. And I'm joined by my good friend, Cole Thompson, who is the host of Just Saying It on SportsMap Radio and covers the enemy of the weekend, really of the whole season right now, the Houston Texans for Texans Daily on Fan Nation. What is up, my man? Thanks for joining us. If we were to go back in March, the last time we saw each other at the combine and said, Hey, these two teams are going to draft rookie quarterbacks. And they're both going to end up getting brand new head coaches, one offensive and one defensive. And

Starting point is 00:00:33 they're going to be playing for a playoff spot in week 18. I would have called us crazy, said, let's buy another round of shots because at this point we're going off the wagon. That's would have been my opinion, but Jake, that's the beautiful game of football. Here we are. We have a must see matchup on Saturday night. Also first time to Texans since November 3rd of 2022, won't be playing in the one o'clock schedule, which automatically is just a huge win for Texans fans.

Starting point is 00:00:57 Yeah. I mean, everybody gets to see CJ Stroud in prime time. The Colts have been flexed into national spots a couple of times. Now they didn't originally have any, any primetime games, but Steelers, meaningful game. They're flexed again. Hopefully, they could take advantage one more time, at least for the Colts' sake of it. But man, how did we get here? I mean, because both teams have overachieved. Zach and I just discussed on our episode, even if the Colts don't win this one, the season is, you can already consider it a success because they were not supposed to be

Starting point is 00:01:33 nine and seven going into the final week and going into the playoffs. And perhaps AFC South champions, if they win and the Jags lose, same exact thing can be said for the Texans. I mean, these two teams, when they played just last year, week 18 at Lucas Oil Stadium, that was for draft positioning. That game had no ramifications in terms of success for the season. Like, here's the funny thing though, Jake, if you talk to an average Texan fan, they'll probably say, hey, we got to nine and eight this year. We were expected to have the third overall pick. You know, everyone was saying how stupid we were to trade away the number one pick next year for Willie Anderson because of, you know,

Starting point is 00:02:15 past rushers from Alabama that are going to be bonafide superstars simply grow on trees. And then you'll have like that other small group of fan base that has drastically changed their expectations because CJ Stroud started to ball out. You start to see free agents pick up some, a little bit of steam and you watch as the Texans went from being a team that was supposed to get the five wins, six wins now flirt with 10 wins. And they're like,

Starting point is 00:02:36 if we don't win, it's a failed season. It is just a dumpster fire. Nick Casario needs to be fired. I mean, it's like, dude, this team last year

Starting point is 00:02:46 screwed you over from the number one pick. And it was the biggest blessing of all because of what she landed in the process, including D'Amico Ryans as your head coach. And you have a bright future. Just shut up and accept the fact that you were a year ahead. Like that's the way most of my brain works at this point. And I feel like that the Colts fans are very humble and modest when it comes to all the elements that hit their team. You know, this was a roster that dealt with at the start of the year, the Jonathan Taylor situation with him being on the PUP list.

Starting point is 00:03:15 And then you not having Anthony Richardson from what was it? Week four on. And then you turn to Gardner Minshew who has experience working with Shane Stikton, but still you went and drafted a franchise quarterback at number four instead of going through the mediocrity of quarterback carousel, which lo and behold, here you are again. rebuilding this time this year we're talking about retooling what are the faults for these two teams that will keep them out of the playoffs and what are the needs that need to be addressed going into the offseason which is a big big difference compared to what we've been in the last few seasons yeah both teams have i mean if they lose and fans are angry both teams have

Starting point is 00:03:59 rated high expectations they don't get their coverage jake just yeah let's be honest here oh absolutely i mean you become the victim of the expectations you create in both teams Rated high expectations. They outkicked their coverage, Jake. Just be honest here. Oh, absolutely. I mean, you become the victim of the expectations you create in both teams. Like you said, outkicked their coverage. But the expectation now going into 2024, whichever team goes in or doesn't, is going to be playoffs. Both teams will be expected to do that. So for the Texans, myself included initially before I started, you know, kind of boning up on the Texans again lately, this team has got to be drastically different from week two

Starting point is 00:04:33 when the Colts, I think, beat them 31 to 20. Yeah. And with Anthony Richardson in their first quarter, it looked like the Colts were going to put up 40 plus. Like it did not look like it was going to be close. Colts got to CJ Stroud six times, but ever since then, CJ Stroud, you know, locked up offensive rookie of the year long ago. Don't tell Los Angeles Ram fans that they still, they still think that the wide receiver has a shot in a quarterback driven

Starting point is 00:04:59 award market. Yeah. Yeah. Well, he also became an MVP candidate. I mean, it's not going to happen, but he entered the discussion before he got hurt. So tell us, I, I, we may not know what to expect

Starting point is 00:05:13 in this game at all, but like, how have the Texans changed? How is this not the same team from week two? So there's a few things we can start off when it comes to the pass rush for Indianapolis. The reason they were able to get back there so often was number one, Stroud was under 100 reps into his debut as the Texan starter. And so my rule of thought is you need about 600 reps of live game material before we start to really analyze what you do. That's just always been the way that I felt. So when you watch him throw it 25 yards down the field or wait for a receiver to get open for a second wind as he maneuvers outside the pocket, that ultimately leads to pressures and sack rates going up. And so we never felt comfortable with the offense. Now, case in point, there were four starters on the offensive line who were out for that game. There was no Laramie Tunsell, no Titus Howard, no Juice Gruggs, no Michael Dieter, no Shaq Mason. Shaq Mason was the only starter in that game. And so Jarrett Patterson already out for the year with a season-ending injury. And Josh Jones, who was another starter, has been enacted the last several games. So

Starting point is 00:06:21 you already were playing with a makeshift offensive line to begin your year. But Stroud really brought this to our attention this past week at media session when he started talking about what were some areas he had grown in. And I think the biggest one was don't always go for the big time play. You've watched him now mature enough to where he's sitting in the pocket, realizing I can get Nico Collins open 25 yards down the field, but the safety is rolling over the top. My quarterback's playing in man coverage. He's blanking on his hip. If I under throw or overthrow that ball, that's in turnover. And that leads to immediately us ending the drive. I have Damian Pierce in the flats and I can turn

Starting point is 00:07:00 it up field, get a gain of six, reset, keep the drive alive, keep momentum at an all-time high, and still have an opportunity to score. And so last week you saw that where there was an out route run by Damian Pierce and there was a post pattern run by Nico Collins. 25 yards down the field, you had, I think it was Terrell Edmonds over the top. He goes to Pierce in the flats. Pierce gets a six yard gain. Eight plays later, they're in the end zone.

Starting point is 00:07:29 They're now up 10, nothing over Tennessee. So it's the maturation of understanding what the defense is giving you. And this is a very good Colts defense. They've always been able to attack the quarterback and I want to take nothing away from that. But the ability now to trust what you have in your tight end, in the flats, what you have in your running back out of the backfield, what you have with your intermediate slot receiver going eight yards instead of 14 yards. You don't always need the highlight play. You need the smart play that keeps you alive. And that's an area where you've drastically seen Stroud improve. And defensively, I just think it's maturation, plain and simple.

Starting point is 00:07:57 I mean, Willie Anderson now is the all-time leader in Texans rookie sack record. Henry Toa Toa has stepped up and become more fluid in man coverage when it comes to pass coverage. I think that you've seen a big time growth from guys like Sheldon Rankins and Jerry Hughes stepping up and plays with Jonathan Grenard. So there's a combination of old timers

Starting point is 00:08:16 versus newcomers, and they seem to blend extremely well to where you don't feel like you're out of concept of one player. Like opposite of Steven Nelson is a young gun and Derek Stingley, but it's a good thing to have the young gun because if he may be a little more risky when it comes to his play style,

Starting point is 00:08:33 but you still have that veteran on the other side that will make sure it's a one man matchup. Now you you've said a lot of standout names, but the unfortunate part of this for Houston, the Colts are pretty close to full health. They didn't rule anyone out as of Thursday, which is the both teams final day of practice for the game being Saturday. Instead, Houston, on the other hand, really banged up, you know, the entire defensive front was on the injury report. Larry Meitensel. I mean, you're,

Starting point is 00:09:01 you're there every day. What, what day. What's the gauge there on injuries? Like who do you expect to maybe not be able to make it? All right, so here's the good news. LT, they never put it on the radar, but just for the listeners, sorry Colts fans, I know you hate hearing this, but the all pro left tackle is going to play. He usually misses Wednesdays

Starting point is 00:09:22 or this week's Tuesday's practices. It's usually a veteran's rest day, though they don't list it as one, but he usually comes back in limited capacity on Thursday, full go Friday. He was back at practice yesterday, so I fully expect him to be good to go on Saturday. Robert Woods is another one. He's a veteran wide receiver that usually takes that veteran day on Wednesdays off. Was limited, was not a practice on Thursday was limited today. So I do think because if he was limited last week, he also will play

Starting point is 00:09:51 got four catches for like 60 yards if I'm not mistaken. And then will Anderson is probably the hot name that everyone wants to pay attention to because this is a player that you traded away your first round pick for and your third round pick for next year. He is expected to play according to people that I've spoken to, uh, could be on a snap count. So you could see a lot of rotations with Derek Barnett and with Jonathan Grenard, if he's able to come healthy, if Jerry Hughes goes, but he is expected to play in some capacity. Sheldon Rankins probably will play. Malik Collins, I don't think will. I think that based off what we've seen so far, him missing last week's game,

Starting point is 00:10:26 it's very risky to lose a defensive lineman that potentially you could utilize in your favor, especially if you're playing a run-heavy team like the Cleveland Browns in the next stage. You may want to sit him out this week. I think Rankins will play. He practiced at a limited capacity last week. He's good to go.

Starting point is 00:10:41 I think as of now, got that big fumble recovery for a 13-yard touchdown on Sunday. Jonathan Grenard is the wild card. And this ultimately, I think, goes into my prediction too. If Grenard plays, then you're going to get pressure on Gardner Minshew. If Grenard doesn't play, I think that that gives the Colts an advantage. This has been a breakout player this year. We saw a little bit of it in 2021, gets hurt last season. His numbers diminished back up, double-digit sacks for the first time in his career, leading sack machine, number one player, top five in the AFC in pressure rate. One of the best when it comes

Starting point is 00:11:16 to quarterback hurries, he has not practiced the last two weeks. And so now there is a sense that potentially you are going to be missing out on your number one pass rusher, thus putting much more pressure on Will Anderson and Jerry Hughes to have to step up and Derek Barton had to be that rotational guy. Offensively, Noah Brown probably not playing based on the people that I've spoken to. Everyone else should be good. So LT playing, I would say Will's probably playing. Robert Woods is probably playing. Rankins is probably playing.

Starting point is 00:11:45 I'm 50-50 right now on Grenard. Grenard, I know, wants to play. Let's just get that out of the way. Grenard wants to be out there because he realizes what this game is all about. But, yeah, the Colts are full go and the Texans are. We're here. We're not dead, but we've been dead all season. Here we are still at almost 10 wins.

Starting point is 00:12:02 Yeah. Guys with the questionable tag tend to play against the colts and this one again for what the game means i expect you know the same thing as as long as guys are physically capable of playing i mean jake it's a rivalry too like you gotta realize that last year whether or not houston fans want to admit it they were pissed that the colts allowed houston to walk away with the win they wanted nothing more than Indy to get that win so they controlled the draft board when it came to the entire process so they hate Indy they the only thing that they hate more right now

Starting point is 00:12:35 is Tennessee because Amy Adams Strunk decided to wear those beautiful wonderful highlight H-Town blue uniforms and just shoveving up the Texans butt like and Houston won that game and they were so happy not because if they beat Tennessee because they beat the Oilers logo they were so like it's right up there with the rivalry so I would highly expect if you're 80% available if you're 60% available even on snap count, you're going to suit up and play in this game. It really hurts to have to root for now, you know, the outcome of Colts Texans first, but it's really going to hurt to have to root for Tennessee against the Jaguars, isn't it? I don't know, man. Cause like, okay, here's the thing. So like, I'm not a native Texan. Like I was born in Colorado. I did not live here when the Oilers

Starting point is 00:13:25 were around. We moved here right before the Texans became a big thing. So I don't have that relationship with the Oilers like other people do. The thing is, is that if they were to wear those H-Town blue though, I would, you know what? I'd rather just go ahead and play Buffalo. I'd rather go to Kansas City. I'd much rather go to Miami. I'd much rather go anywhere else for a playoff game than have to root for the Oilers to win that game against Jacksonville, but they can only wear it twice a year. They wore it against Atlanta, got a dub, wore it against the Texans, suck it losers. We all know what you stand by. So they can't wear those uniforms. I don't really have a dog in the fight. I think Tennessee, let's just talk about that game

Starting point is 00:14:05 more fast if trevor lawrence plays i think it's a done deal just go ahead and wrap it up even though lawrence has been far from what we expected this year which is kind of weird because we all thought the same thing mvp caliber season you add in a number one wide receiver and calvin ridley this is going to only benefit your team but you're good enough to beat the Titans. C.J. Beathard playing, they won last week with C.J. Beathard. I mean, it was Carolina, but they won last week with C.J. Beathard.

Starting point is 00:14:34 So whether or not it happens that way, I think it's just knowing you're in the playoff right now with what was expected at the start of the year, with how much animosity was surrounding these two teams and what plagued the teams throughout the entire season, whether it be for Jonathan Taylor's contract extension holdout to losing Richardson to Houston losing Tank Dell to losing Titus Howard after signing him to a long-term extension,

Starting point is 00:14:58 your former first-round pick in Kenyon Green looking more and more like a casualty than a possibility. All that aside, i think it just shows you that ultimately when you hire the right coach that saves your job and by the way chris ballard is still one of the best gms in the nfl and i got really sick and tired of hearing from the casual fan last offseason how bad he was and how he was going to get fired like this is a reason why you just peg your hat and say i don't know football football. Shut up. Chris Ballard is doing right. Cause Chris Ballard is amazing. Yeah. I mean, he, he has his warts and there's some things he could probably improve, but the guy can create,

Starting point is 00:15:35 he can create a roster that can survive. Uh, you know, it's, if it's going to be an absolute disaster, it's not normally because of the players, So then I got just a couple more for you. So this Colts team is obviously drastically different as well from week two. Sure, they handily won in that one, but you got a new quarterback in this one. The offense has evolved. Jonathan Taylor is here this time. What do you think the Colts really ought to attack from Houston, whether it's offensive or defensive?

Starting point is 00:16:06 And then ultimately, how do you see this whole game playing out? I think it's the middle of the field. I think no matter how you want to phrase it, whether it be with trying to get that second push from JT going up for a five-yard gain or a seven-yard gain, or whether that be sending a guy like Alec Pierce across the middle, the linebackers still are a weak point in coverage, whether it be Denzel Perriman or Blake Cashman or Henry Toa Toa,

Starting point is 00:16:31 there's been improvements. I mean, I have to say it, there's been massive improvements in that area, but there still is a glaring weak point when it comes to the nickel defender at times, when it comes to the linebacker play coverage. So if you can find a way to maybe get like a pulling guard to take number six out of the play, that's going to open up the A gap and allow JT to push forward for a gain of six or a gain of seven. And the clock's going to keep on rolling and that's going to put pressure on a rookie quarterback to have to come out there and make an immediate play because you can't go ahead and hope that you just have a big time blunder from Indianapolis.

Starting point is 00:17:05 Same thing goes for the passing attack. You work the middle of the field. You start making sure that you are watching where the linebackers are. Even if it's minimal games, it's enough to keep momentum and the inertia moving forward to where you're sitting there and you're saying, we may walk away with three points, but if we trust our defense to get a three and out, three is enough for us to survive. And it goes right back to what we're saying with Ballard. Ballard has built a roster countless times, whether or not the Carson Wentz thing worked out or the Matt Ryan thing worked out. He's built a roster to where you at least think it's manageable, it's survivable. And now you're at full go. You are fully healthy. You added in some good players via the free agency last

Starting point is 00:17:44 off season. You've seen the growth and development of these guys, and you do have Jonathan Taylor. The one downfall I will say for Indianapolis is that Houston drastically has turned the corner when it comes to their run defense. They were putrid last year. It was by far, and I don't say this lightly, and I speak in absolutes. I better be damn sure of it.

Starting point is 00:18:03 It was by far the worst run defense I've ever seen in the history of the NFL, period. They were awful last year. They're third in the league right now when it comes to yards after contact and yards allowed per game. So you're really going to have to trust and target probably the outside. You want to go up against your nickel defenders, your, I mean, your cornerbacks, you want your safeties having to kind of come down to the box and play like a human missile, firing and missing at the legs.

Starting point is 00:18:29 That way it opens up another rushing lane. That's ultimately the case when it comes to, I think, for Indianapolis. And tempo, tempo, tempo. Because the one thing you don't want to see happen is, who's the starting left tackle for this game? Is it going to be Freeland or is it going to be Ryman? Ryman. Okay. The one thing you don is it going to be Ryman? Ryman. Okay.

Starting point is 00:18:46 The one thing you don't want to see is Ryman get blown back, but he takes down Will Anderson and Anderson still just grabs the leg of Garner Minshew to where he can't move. Like that's the one thing. So the tempo has got to be consistent, poignant, right on the money, never feeling like you're taking a step back,

Starting point is 00:19:02 just always seeing positive growth. And as long as you do that, you walk away with points. Houston, on the flip side, they have weapons, but they are missing, I think, one element. Whether that be in the slot with a tank Dell, whether that be with an outside receiver like a Noah Brown, who's going to force defensive backs to play over the top. We know that Juju Brents is probably going to be locked in with number 12 and Nico Collins the entire game. So that kind of takes away. And he's been actually really, really impressive. I was very pleased with what I saw from him coming out of Kansas state. Cause I see that he works

Starting point is 00:19:33 in Gus Bradley's cover three system extremely well. But if you take him out of the game and you're forced to now just do dink and dunk passes to Damian Pierce and Devin Singletary and Brevin Jordan and Dalton Schultz. Eventually, it's going to lead to a punt, and a punt might be the difference in this game. It really could, Jake, if we're being honest. It could be the reason why Indianapolis wins by three or they lose by three. So I am, again, sticking with my moral here. I believe Jonathan Grenard is the ultimate weapon. That's going to decide this game. Does he play? Because if he does, it allows you to run stunts where you don't have to worry about not having Malik Collins out there

Starting point is 00:20:09 because you have a forceful defensive end and a hyper-athletic one on the other side with Will Anderson. If he does play, I think Houston gets to guard him in shoe. I think that you see similar results of what we saw, but flipped at NRG where six sacks are potential, where 18 pressures are potential, where one interception thrown badly into coverage is potential. Even if Minshew throws for 275 yards, I think Houston wins.

Starting point is 00:20:34 If Grenard doesn't play, I think Indianapolis wins, because I just don't think you're going to get enough pressure in the backfield on time. Okay. I'm kind of right there, too. I mean, I obviously don't know the depth of Jonathan Grenard, but in general, I think this winds up being a close one. I have the Colts winning by three, but it's a last team with the ball type of situation. If the Texans somehow get out to a big lead against the Colts, they're not coming back on

Starting point is 00:21:00 that. The Colts offense just does not come back from those big deficits. They're just not built to Anthony Richardson could do it. We saw him come back from 20 points against the Rams earlier in the year, but when the Colts lose big, it's big the whole time, you know, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Jacksonville earlier in the year. So if Houston can get a big lead, then I definitely like their chances. But in general, I think this is probably going to be more of a slugfest or more methodical from each team. Their offense is smart.

Starting point is 00:21:32 You could say the same thing about Houston, though, too, because even though the score would differentiate what we saw against Cleveland, you got to remember Cleveland was already up 30 to six when they pulled their starters and Davis Mills came in. So that 30 to 14 14 33 to 14 score isn't really as promising as it looks it actually is more so you just getting points at the very end of the games it goes back to like you know we talk college football all the time and i mentioned how washington one of the biggest question marks we have with them going into the fiat the sugar bowl was where a lot of those yards just coming in late time games where you're just

Starting point is 00:22:05 trying to run up the score is that what it was where like at this point it's just kind of game like like blake portals was the ultimate fantasy quarterback because of the man would be down by like 20 points garbage pull him and he'd get garbage time touchdowns and everyone knew what was going to happen so the same thing could be said about Houston here, where if you don't pull the starters, and I don't think Indianapolis will because of they realize what type of talent Houston has and what type of talent they might be missing. If they don't pull the starters, you jump out to an early lead. I don't think Houston is going to be able to recover. They don't have a good enough run game right now outside of Devin Singletary for about a quarter and maybe two drives to where

Starting point is 00:22:45 you feel confident in it. Interesting. Cause the Colts will not put the foot on the gas. They are just like Shane Steichen has said, they throw to score. They, they run to, you know, win and milk out the clock. They will play conservative if they get out to a big lead. So that's just kind of in Steichen's play calling DNA. So we'll see. But man, thanks so much for joining us, everybody, on Twitter at Mr. Cole Thompson. Be sure to follow him, whether in defeat with the Texans or if you want to follow the Texans, if they beat the Colts and see what they can do in the postseason.

Starting point is 00:23:20 Perfect man for the job right there. Thanks again, man. Hey, Tom, Jake. Best of luck to you guys on Saturday. You too.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans: Player Who Will Cause Win/Loss, and It Isn't C.J. Stroud

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