Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: What's More Likely, a Trade Up or Back?

Starting point is 00:00:00 We put out the call for questions and you guys responded loud and clear that you want to hear about draft rates. So let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. All right, all right. Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. And today's show is brought to you by FanDuel.

Starting point is 00:00:47 Make every moment more. Right now, new customers, you guys get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed. That's $150. Win or lose, visit FanDuel.com slash Locked On to get started. What is up, friends? This is Jake Arthur from HorseshoeHuddle.com. Just me today. Zach will be back with us tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:01:07 And out on Twitter, X, whatever you want to call it, we put out the bat signal, I guess, for questions from you guys. A couple weeks left until the draft. So what are you guys wanting to know? And we actually got so many questions that we're going to split this up into today's show and tomorrow. So I saved the good ones that I really want Zach to answer with me for tomorrow. But these ones are really good as well. But I know that, dude.

Starting point is 00:01:32 I know I was brain ticks. And I think tomorrow's show will be really good because we want to pick his brain about a couple of these things. So I kind of categorized all these things up. A lot of questions about trading up or back in the draft. So we'll have a whole segment dedicated to that. There's also ones on, again, with the draft, specific selections or positions and what we think of their placement in certain rounds. And then we're going to finish things up talking specifically about the current Colts and what things may look like this season. So without further ado, let's go ahead and kick things off.

Starting point is 00:02:11 This was from at and Nanners again on Twitter. Do the Colts trade up with the Bears for Roma Dunes or Malik neighbors, which I presume will be pick number nine. They have two picks in the top 10. Colts aren going up to one uh stick at 15 for best player available or trade back uh so if i'm going to rank these scenarios in terms of what's most likely first i'm going to say it's most likely that they trade back only because this is a pretty good draft in some areas they need there's going to be a handful of corners that really suit them. There's a handful of receivers as well. You could even look at like edge rushers.

Starting point is 00:02:51 But regardless, I think there's going to be a hunk of players there that they really like. Let's say there's six or seven guys on the board that they really like when they're sitting there at 15. Well, they'll move back a little bit or could move back a little bit in order to acquire more picks and still not be moving back too far to where they're going to miss out on all those guys. So that's usually something that they really like to do. The caveat, of course, would be if there's someone there, you know, one of their like blue chip players that falls in their lap and trading back would jeopardize them getting them. I don't think they would trade back in that instance.

Starting point is 00:03:35 Uh, so I would say trade back, stay at 15 for best player available again, because there's going to be someone there, whether it's Brock Bowers, Quinnian Mitchell, maybe not, maybe not all of Dallas Turner, you know, those guys could all be off the board, but like there will be someone there that they really like. But the question is, do they like them so much that they don't want to risk moving back? And then trading up, of course, I don't think it's, I don't think it's highly don't think it's highly unlikely but it's i think it's as unlikely as the the other scenarios which leads us into our next question from at want more colts with chris ballard returning most of the roster from last year it feels like he believes

Starting point is 00:04:18 the addition of anthony richardson will put the colts in playoff contention with the need of instant impact rookies do you see a world where they trade up for, again, a Roma Dunze, Brock Bowers, Dallas Turner type of player? So I think you're right with that. Their Colts actions this offseason and really from Ballard's own mouth have pointed to the fact that the Colts think they're pretty close. Ballard has said once or twice that they should be competing for the division and playoffs. They knew they were just a win away last year from being in the postseason without Anthony. They really believe Anthony will be a difference maker, you know, pairing him with Jonathan Taylor behind that offensive line that did so well last offseason.

Starting point is 00:05:05 I do think the Colts think they're just a couple key pieces away. And because of that, you could see them going big game hunting and saying, okay, so Anthony Richardson being back on his own is great, but what if we traded up and gave him Roma Dunzey or Malik Naver, someone very explosive in the passing game? That makes sense. I just don't think it's as likely because it, of course, involves giving something up. The Colts will be going up to get a terrific player, no doubt.

Starting point is 00:05:35 But in recent episodes, Zach and I kind of went over the scenario. Do they want to give up what would probably be a third round pick as well? Maybe not. It just depends on the player and how much we think they're in love with them. Oddly enough, the Colts are hosting Malik neighbors today who seems to be a top 10 lock, but there's,

Starting point is 00:05:53 there's been of course, how there always is this stage of, of the draft cycle, some leaks about, you know, off field concerns, character stuff. That of course coming out this time of year

Starting point is 00:06:07 Always is trying to aid a player moving down the board So the Colts hosting neighbors today Maybe doing a little bit of fact finding Seeing what's up with all this stuff that's out there about you But it's very interesting nonetheless Again, the Colts don't often trade up that early in the draft We see it occasionally in the mid rounds Third third, fourth, fifth round, but it's possible. I know they want to surround Anthony Richardson with as much help as possible.

Starting point is 00:06:33 So I'm not going to, I'm not going to shoo that possibility away at all. Last one for this segment from at Ty underscore night nine. I've been eyeballing the Eagles at pick 22 as a trade up partner, meaning the Eagles trade up with the Colts to 15. Do you think the value for trading up seven spots for the Eagles again, 22 to 15 would the value be Phillies pick 22 and 53, which is a second rounder. So,

Starting point is 00:07:03 and then they also go on to say, also, if we do trade back to 22, do you think they go with Cooper to Jean? So I was looking at the trade value chart for this one. The Colts 15th pick is worth 1,050 points. The Eagles 22nd pick is worth 780, which leaves a difference of 270 points. 270 points is equal to the end of the second round. Now, the Eagles do have two second round picks, 50, which is worth 400 points, and 53, which is worth 370. Both of those are worth more, you know, they'd be paying a lot more than what is worth in that instance. But since they do have two second round picks, that may mean, you know, if they want to move up for a player, they really covet, they'd be willing to give up one of those. Otherwise, maybe the, maybe they talk the Colts

Starting point is 00:07:59 into, you know, kind of punting there and giving them a second rounder next season. Teams often do that, figuring they're going to be picking near the bottom of the round. But regardless, I think makes sense for the Colts to be able to get one of those second round picks in 2024 out of the Eagles. Otherwise, you could see some combination of like a third and fourth rounder or something. Colts and Eagles are pretty good at working together. So I think working in good faith, the Colts might be able to get one of those second rounders. Now you mentioned a specific player with Cooper Dijon. Colts moving back from 15 to 22. I think Dijon would definitely be in the mix there. I think he's perfect for the Colts athletically and, you know and versatility-wise, being able to play safety nickel or outside corner.

Starting point is 00:08:47 He does very well in off-ball situations, zone coverage. The Colts obviously do quite a bit of that. So I think that fits the gene very well. But that could also be the absolutely perfect spot for like a Xavier Worthy, for example, which it seems like the Colts are probably decently interested. They've had him for one of their official visits. They sent a decent contingent down there to Texas, which they could have been looking at A.D. Mitchell and Jatavian Sanders as well. But looking at the writing on the wall from what I've observed this offseason, I do think the Colts are pretty interested in and worthy. So that's that for segment one coming up next.

Starting point is 00:09:29 Again, we'll look at like some specific players and positions that you guys were, were pretty curious about. It's playoff time in the NBA and NHL baseball's in full swing and FanDuel is your place to bet on every single game right now, new customers, you guys get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed. That's $150 win or lose. Bet on everything from slap shots to home runs to slam dunks, all on an app that is

Starting point is 00:09:56 safe, secure, and easy to use. What are you waiting for? Visit FanDuel.com slash locked on and make your first bet an automatic win. FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Okie doke, everyone. So moving on to some more good questions here. First one from at Brodo Baggins. How would you feel going into next year if the Colts go wide receiver slash tight end

Starting point is 00:10:21 and safety in rounds one and two, and then take cornerbacks, either cornerbacks, Cam Hart or Kyrie Jackson in round three. So I do think it's more likely that you swap the last part of that where it'd be corner in round two and safety in round three, just because that's kind of the value of the position in this draft. I don't think anyone knows where any of these safeties are going to be picked. Honestly, guys like Javon Bullard and Tyler Newman will probably go on round two, but otherwise round three seems like the pretty sweet spot there. But regardless, that wasn't your question. So regardless of all that, I think you could

Starting point is 00:11:02 come up with a really good haul in those first three rounds. Realistically, you could be looking at a trio compromise of any combination of like wide receiver Brian Thomas or Xavier Worthy from the first round, either again, Tyler Newben or Javon Bullard in rounds two, which I think they would fit the colts really well and then like you mentioned camhart or kairi jackson in rounds three that would be again any combination of those guys i would be perfectly happy with i think though they would all fit the colts really well i think they meet obvious needs but that early in the draft meeting needs is great but like you're also going beyond that with some of these guys like brian thomas and xavier worthy i think go well beyond just fulfilling needs like i think they're difference makers same thing you could say that with javon bullard as well like he's he's a

Starting point is 00:11:59 really versatile player uh he's kind of cut from a similar cloth as like a Kenny Moore when you watch him, but more of home at the safety position around the corner, although he can come up and play some nickel as well. And then Kyrie Jackson is a big, you know, very lengthy Gus Bradley style of corner. But Cam Hart, when I was at Notre Dame's pro day and I was watching Cam Hart do it, doing his field workout, I literally just felt like I was watching Juju Brents out there. So do you want to Juju Brents is out on the field at the same time? Cause those guys are like four or five in their speed. But you hope with their physicality and like ability to mirror guys that it doesn't matter what their long speed is at the end of the day on that. Totally just putting yourself in the team's shoes there.

Starting point is 00:12:50 But no, again, to answer your question, I think you could come up with an awesome trio of players in that scenario. Up next from at klp39519, depending on what Chris Ballard does in round one, do you feel better about the Colts selecting a corner on day two or a wide receiver? Meaning, you know, they're going to get a receiver or a corner in the first three rounds somewhere. Would you rather wait and get that corner on day two or wait and get a receiver on day two? So I would feel way better about getting a receiver on a day two because it's just a deeper

Starting point is 00:13:22 class. Uh, there's definitely corners that I like there in round two, like Cam Hart. I know the previous question was framed in the third round, but you could get him in the second round as well, and it would be fine. Cam Hart, Max Melton, TJ Tampa, those are really fine players to get on day two corners there. But receiver, I think you're looking at players who are even a little better, higher quality, and there's a deeper pool of them. Just for example, Ricky Pearsall, Ladd McConkie, Keon Coleman, Xavier Leggett, Troy Franklin, Malachi Corley, and Roman Wilson. You could even throw the Texas guys in there. There's a possibility that either A.D. Mitchell or Xavier Worthy could be there as well.

Starting point is 00:14:02 Again, because it's such a deep receiver class. And with the receiver class being as deep as it is, a lot of these guys may not go as early as we think because teams can say, you know, the class is so deep, we can wait a little bit. So you can be looking at like no doubt starting receivers, like round two, round three. Like it's again, it's a very, very deep group. And there's guys that didn't even mention on there. That's just the most likely candidate. So I'd feel way better about waiting for a receiver just because I'm super

Starting point is 00:14:37 confident in the quality of player that you're going to get. Last one for this segment from at ocean underscore sands. Chris Ballard hinted at the Colts, knowing which position they will draft in round one, a long time ago. Is this still considered a wide receiver or do you think it's a corner? All right. So while I answer this one, I also wanted to just basically put up some examples from the horse's mouth.

Starting point is 00:15:02 Uh, this is a combination of quotes we have seen from Chris Ballard, both from the post-season press conference right after the season ended last year, and then at the combine as well. Highlighted in red, I think, are the most telling parts of it. So I think how the Colts will approach things always is going to be with best player available, skewed towards the needs, especially early on the draft. Like the Colts do tend to address needs pretty early. But if they have evenly ranked players are obviously going to lean towards that player at the position they really need. So looking back at the things that Ballard has said since the season ended, I really think it's more likely to be a receiver.

Starting point is 00:15:50 Again, just look at this graphic. We talked here about how the Colts really want to surround Anthony Richardson with talent and explosive playmakers. It's been mentioned in four different questions here. And that's not even pulling from like things he's done when he's gone on radio shows or anything else. Or even Shane Steichen talking about it. Like the Colts want to surround Anthony Richardson with playmakers. They think he is one in his own right.

Starting point is 00:16:19 But adding others to play alongside him, that's really what it's all about um so while i do think like sitting at 15 guys like quinnian mitchell or dallas turner i think they are probably horseshoe guys for the colts that they do not want to bypass and they obviously play defense outside of guys like that i i really think the colts would like to make it a goal to get explosive on offense early on this draft. And that's where you're looking at Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy, Brock Bowers, guys like that. I just think the Colts really want to try and leave the draft with someone like that. But again, they're going to go with best player available. You cannot plan the draft. The draft goes pick by pick and you just never know how it's going

Starting point is 00:17:10 to develop. So while I think that's probably one of their biggest goals going into it, we're just going to have to see how it, how it ultimately works out. So coming up at the end of the show here, we're going to look at kind of current Colts and how things are set up specifically already. And then talk about some certain player scenarios that you guys asked about as well. Passion, drive, and patience. The formula for winning championships is also what keeps your ride or die alive. eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to peak performance. Superchargers, exhaust kits led headlights and more whether you're in the speed power or style ebay motors you got covered with over 122 million parts for your number one ride or die you'll always find exactly what you're looking for and with the ebay guaranteed fit

Starting point is 00:18:00 your part is guaranteed to fit your ride every time or it's your money back because with eBay Motors, you are burning rubber and not cash. With all the parts that you need at prices that you want, it's easy to make your car the MVP and bring home huge wins. Keep your ride or die alive at ebaymotors.com. Eligible items only, exclusions apply. eBay guaranteed fit only available to U.S. customers. All right, let's send this thing home on a high note. So this first question is from at Ty Bob official. Pause the draft talk for a minute. How many combined rushing yards do you believe that Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson will have? And a bonus throw in rushing touchdowns as well. So this is a good question because I think both of these

Starting point is 00:18:46 guys are going to be, their productivity is going to be different than it was last year. So Jonathan Taylor averaged 74.1 rushing yards per game last season, which was his low, obviously. Just for example, when he blew the roof off of the world in 2021, he averaged like 106 yards per game. So 74.1 yards, I think he's going to be above that just because, again, that's an outlier. Last year was an outlier, and he was hurt, And it's like the least productive he'd been in a while for playing a good chunk of the season. Anthony Richardson was at 34 rushing yards per game. So again, I'm going to say Taylor is going to be up and AR may be a skosh off just because obviously he's going to be a little more polished as a passer. You're probably going to want him to protect

Starting point is 00:19:43 himself a little more. And I probably just not going to be as productive as a runner. With that being said, I do put him around 550 rushing yards. That's, that's really not that much when it comes out to an average per game and Taylor, if you just kick that 74 up to like 80 yards per game, that's over 1300 rushing yards, or it's about 1300 rushing yards. So I'll put Richardson at 550 and Taylor at 1300 rushing yards. Uh, so being 1850 between the two of them and then touchdowns, I think saying they're going to have 1850 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns between them it feels gaudier than i really think it is because it's not uncommon for jonathan taylor to have like

Starting point is 00:20:33 10 or 12 touchdowns and then i'm not even giving richardson 10 which i think would be easy for him to hit because he had like four and a very small sample size last year but but I'll say 20. It'll probably be like Taylor with 12 and Richardson with eight or something. I think these, again, they don't look that eye-popping to me. Titans fans would probably accuse me of being a homer or something right now, but I think that's very doable and it's in line with what they've done in their career so far. So that's a good one for you guys to answer as well. AR and JT, what do you think they'll combine to accumulate rushing yards and rushing touchdowns? Go ahead and drop that in the comments there. And then next up, at KSmith1872, what happens if Alec Pierce surpasses Josh Downs in receiving this year?

Starting point is 00:21:23 Assuming both are healthy. And he's got multiple questions here. How many times will Ballard trade down in the draft? Who leads the Colts and Saks this year? At the end of the season, who wins comeback player of the year for the Colts? So we'll start with the first one. What happens if Alec Pierce surpasses Josh Downs in receiving yards this year? I do think that would be a little surprising only because Richardson should

Starting point is 00:21:48 be back healthy. Down should be back healthy. I don't, I don't want to say downs hit like a rookie wall, but he was dealing with a knee injury for the back half of the season that affected him, obviously. So that pair together,

Starting point is 00:22:01 we saw, and again, in a small sample size, they work really well together. And Richardson is willing to look downfield to Downs. They just have really good chemistry. And you have to have that when you're doing as many option rates and things as Josh Downs does. So it would be surprising.

Starting point is 00:22:19 But Zach and I have also said we do expect Alec Pierce to be more productive than he has been. Just because I think Richardson will look for him downfield more often than Gardner Minchu ever did. But still, I don't want to call Pierce a one-trick pony either, but he is kind of a niche player. He's not a well-rounded receiver yet. He's a good blocker, and he is a good downfield threat. So Downs does a little more, So I would be surprised if Pierce gets more receiving yards, especially if you consider the Colts draft to receiver early on, they're probably going to eat into Alec Pierce's playing time a little bit. Next question, how many times will

Starting point is 00:22:58 Chris Ballard trade down in the draft? And that I will quote Lindsay Lohan from Mean Girls. And I'm probably going to get this slightly wrong. The number does not exist. So look at it. The Colts came out of last year's draft with like 12 picks, which is quite a bit. That is even for the Colts. That's a lot,

Starting point is 00:23:18 a lot of picks. They have seven in this one. I'm going to say they wind up with more than seven, unless of course they make some big trade up, which is not anticipated, but of course possible. But I would say it'd be more likely the Colts wind up with eight or nine picks, which I'll say that they'll trade back twice in this one. Especially if they trade up in the first round, they will trade back at least once or twice later in the draft to try and recoup some picks.

Starting point is 00:23:48 Let's see. What was the next one? Who leads the Colts in sacks this year? I'll give it to Samson Ebicom again. Dang near had a 10 sack season for the Colts last year.

Starting point is 00:24:04 I think his biggest threat to it actually will be dio dango because that guy's that guy's um development has taken an awesome trajectory throughout his young career he's gotten better all the time uh both as a run defender and pass rusher and so dio i say it's gonna beom as the leading sacker, but it could easily be Dio as well. And then at the end of the season, who wins comeback player of the year for the Colts specifically? I think the easy answer is Richardson because as long as he plays most of the season, that's just an automatic default checkoff. Jonathan Taylor. Otherwise, of course, because we've seen an example over an entire season of him

Starting point is 00:24:47 being the best running back in football now he has to reclaim that title he's definitely been surpassed because he hasn't stayed healthy last couple years um but he has that capability and then as a dark horse candidate to not cheat and pick those two easy answers. I'd say Jelani Woods because he didn't play at all last year, obviously. And we've seen that the guy has just wads of potential and could do really well in a Shane Steichen offense. Last question for the day is from at C Ford foot doc. How many of DeForest Buckner, Quiddy Paye pay and dio adengbo would you expect back next season i'm assuming at some point they won't keep everyone which is in parentheses and then do

Starting point is 00:25:32 you think the defensive line is higher on the team's wish list than a lot of fans would assume because there's potential for a fair amount of change there that's exactly right um so when zach and i have talked about the colts adding defensive linemen through the draft, it's been for a couple big reasons. One of them because the Colts will never feel they have enough pass rush. They will always stoke that fire. They want it in waves. And again, you just can't have enough defensive linemen. But also, there could be change.

Starting point is 00:26:03 You do have guys coming up on free agency Buckner. You don't know if Cody pay is going to get his fifth year option picked up. He very well may not die. It will be a free agent the same year. So you could, you could lose some guys financially. It's going to be tough. Now we have seen the Colts be able to swing it.

Starting point is 00:26:23 They just brought back like most of their free agents this off season, Michael Pittman, Kenny Moore, Grover Stewart, Julian Blackman, like they brought back all the big guys they needed to. So I'm not going to put it past them to find a way to do it again, but it is not going to be cheap. Um, free agent edge guys of that caliber for Quiddian Dio are getting roughly nine to 12 million per year. Buckner is a little harder to project. He makes 21, the current contract he's on, he makes 21 million per year. We've seen like Christian Wilkins is at like 27 and a half million per year, I think, with his new deal. Now, Buckner is still a great, great player,

Starting point is 00:27:05 but he's on the wrong side of 30. So only because of age, you could see that 21 mil per year dip down to like 15 to 18 bare minimum. Or if he goes out and has a huge year, maybe he signs like a two-year deal worth 20 to 25. We're just going to have to wait and see because it's going to be based on years, which at that age, they probably wouldn't sign him any longer than two years. If Buckner comes out and has like a big all pro year, like we know he's capable of doing, that's going to drive up the price. And then defensive tackle, we're seeing that market.

Starting point is 00:27:41 The price is rising all the time. Derek Brown just signed a huge deal. I mentioned Christian Wilkins. So a guy like Buckner, I don't think the Colts would shy away from paying him a huge contract if he earned it again, even at his age. And then, of course, guaranteed money would be a big thing as well. So I'm really interested to see what you guys have to say about some of these as well. So, of course, any of those questions that really tipped your fancy, go ahead and put your response in there as well.

Starting point is 00:28:10 Again, you guys asked us so many good questions that that's going to be tomorrow's episode as well. That'll be Zach. I've got a couple of things tomorrow. Kenny Moore is kind of having a charity event. The Chuck Strong Gala is tomorrow night as well. So I'll be tied up doing those things. I'll bring you some pretty cool content coming from those events tomorrow. But yeah, Zach will be answering your questions tomorrow on tomorrow's show.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts: What's More Likely, a Trade Up or Back?

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