Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Colts will reportedly trade or release Carson Wentz next month

Episode Date: February 17, 2022

On today's episode, Evan goes over all the latest news revolving around Carson Wentz. Will the Indianapolis Colts actually move on from Wentz after one season?According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, the Colts will "probably" trade or release Carson Wentz before more money on his contract is guaranteed next month. What does this mean for the Colts' QB situation?Evan goes how Indy arrived at this point with Wentz, his contract situation, plus some potential replacements.Locked On Colts is back, and better than ever throughout the offseason! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, everyone. Welcome into your latest episode of Locked On Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network. I am your host, Evan Sidery. You can follow us over on Twitter if you haven't already at Locked On Colts. We greatly appreciate it. We are back. I know it's been a while. We are trying to find a co-host for Locked On Colts. So if anyone out there is interested, we'd love to have you on board here. So we're looking for a co-host to join me. We'd love to have some reliability and someone that loves Colts football with no bias. So for those wondering out there where the podcast has been, I'm just trying to figure out who our co-host is going to be moving forward here. I'm really looking forward to it. This is a fun Colts offseason ahead, and I can't wait to get started here.

We're going to be with you five days per week throughout the offseason here very soon, so be on the lookout for that. Also, big news day, obviously. Over this past weekend, Super Bowl Sunday, news broke from ESPN's Chris Mortensen that the Colts are quote-unquote probably going to get rid of Carson Wentz via trade or release by his March 19th guarantee date when seven more dollars of his guarantees are officially on his contract, making him even more expensive for the Colts to get off of. So Chris Mortensen did relay forward that Carson Wentz was going to be someone that probably is on the move. And that is very, I wouldn't say surprising, the way the season ended.

You see how Carson Wentz kind of folded like a tent down the stretch. Just really outside of that one Cardinals drive that he had in the fourth quarter against the Cardinals. Carson Wentz, unfortunately, even when Jonathan Taylor was rising, Carson Wentz was falling, which really is very sad to see because he had everything in front of him with the Colts. He had the running game. He had the superstar running back in Jonathan Taylor. Sure, the weapons weren't as great, but Phillip Rivers did okay with those weapons last year

and led the team to 11-5. Frank Reich vouched for Carson Wentz. The Colts traded a first-round pick for Carson Wentz. They traded a third-round pick for Carson Wentz. And what did Wentz show during the second half of the season? That he's not the guy. I mean, I know I was on board the first half of the season, but when Jonathan Taylor got going, that's when the passing attack should be a lot easier.

Instead, it was the total complete opposite, which is why the Colts suffered down the stretch, losing in an embarrassing fashion a 98% chance of a clinching scenario of making the playoffs. Instead, they lose their last two games to the Raiders and the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Carson Wentz doesn't complete 60% of his passes in either game. Doesn't even throw for over 200 yards in either of those games. Outside of one game since the beginning of November,

November 4th, when Carson Wentz threw for over 250 yards against the New York Jets in a 45-30 win for the Colts over them, he threw for over 250 yards, no times. None, except one, which is against Tampa Bay, when he had 306 yards. He threw two interceptions in that game. Once wasn't the reason why the Colts lost that game. You can point back to the Eric Fisher one, but having one good game out of a two-month stretch when everything is on the line, he was the crutch of the offense. I mean, if the Colts had competent QB play,

it's fair to assume that the Colts would have been in a spot where they could have made the playoffs, might have been even a higher seed than originally expected. Carson Wentz just simply did not buck the trend that saw in Philadelphia. He wilted down the stretch. In key pressure situations, Carson Wentz never delivered one time except that one drive against the Cardinals. He was awful against the Patriots.

He was awful in both games against the Titans. He was awful against the Raiders. He was awful against the Jaguars. Kind of a trend there, I must say, that Carson Wentz has kind of shown that he's not the guy. And Chris Mortensen relaying that he's heard from league circles, from sources that he knows, that the Colts are probably going to get off course at once is very noteworthy because Chris Mortensen, if you don't know, is very good friends with Colts owner Jim Irsay. He's very good friends with a lot of people in the Colts organization.

He's been the source throughout the Irsay era, all throughout the Peyton Manning era. You hear all about Chris Mortensen relaying news as well. So Mort has been a good friend of Jim Mercer for a very, very long time. They were actually just hanging out at the National Championship game in Indianapolis last month. So you probably know that he probably told Chris Mortensen a lot of good info when they were sharing that sweet with him and Peyton Manning a month or so ago. But, I mean, the course of Wentz era is over before it even began.

And honestly, I know many people have said when I've tried this in on Twitter, saying, oh no, this isn't the worst trade in Colts history. Oh no, this isn't the worst trade. It's got to be Trent Richardson. Okay, let me just set the record straight from my end. Carson Wentz, you gave a first-round pick and a third-round pick for a guy you thought was going to be your guy for at least the next couple years. Trent Richardson was an immediate flameout.

I understand that. You gave up a first-round pick for a running back. That's not a good look. But giving up a future first-round pick for a running back. That's not a good look. But giving up a future first-round pick, a number 16 overall pick in this year's draft, plus a third-round pick in last year's draft, to hopefully rehabilitate Carson Wentz's career with Frank Reich, and it completely failed. It was a complete failure.

Obviously, Jim Irsay, it seemed like, was not a fan of Carson Wentz being unvaccinated. It seemed like Frank Reich really lost trust in Carson Wentz over the second half of the season, especially in the month of December and January as well. Chris Bowden, I feel like, had to be persuaded by Frank Reich. Overall, you could just tell from the very beginning that the Colts brass was not 100% sold on Carson Wentz. We heard the reports, I believe, in November from Colin Coward that the front office, or at least the Colts organization, was split on Carson Wentz's performance this year. Probably, if you just want to guesstimate here,

probably Chris Bauer is not all in on Carson Wentz. Frank Reich was. Jim Merced never was from the beginning. And now we're at this point, less than a year later, we're almost a calendar year to the Carson Wentz trade, officially going throughout February 18th. It is now February 16th as I'm recording this. And the Colts want to get off of Carson Wentz trade, officially going throughout February 18th. It is now February 16th as I'm recording this. And the Colts want to get off of Carson Wentz already.

I mean, it's really an incredible downfall for Carson Wentz. And this stint with the Annapolis Colts, the Wentz era, lasts less than a year. A full NFL season for sure. But giving away a top 16 pick in this year's draft, a third-round pick, for a guy who was only here for one season is a gigantic, gigantic failure. It is an egg in the face of Chris Ballard. It's an egg in the face of Frank Reich. And it honestly is an egg in the face of Jim Irsay.

The Colts have to make this thing right. They've been on the wheel of quarterbacks since Andrew Luck retired. Luck was a huge wrench into their long-term plans. But Phillip Brewer's last year was a perfect example of a guy who was a huge wrench into their long-term plans, but Philip Rivers last year was a perfect example of a guy who was a one-year bridge. They were hopeful it was a two-year bridge, but he was great last year in the limited time that we saw Rivers and Indy. Carson Wentz had a couple flashes here and there, but was never even close to the level Philip Rivers was. He was more so a glorified Jacoby Brissett, and giving away a first and a third for a glorified Jacoby

Brissett is embarrassing. It truly is. And now we know the Colts intentions leading up to the deadline. We've heard it all through local media over the last month or so that Jim Brissett is furious at Carson Wentz. He doesn't want Wentz back as his quarterback. Now we get national confirmation from Chris Morrinson on Super Bowl Sunday saying that Carson Wentz will not be the Colts quarterback or probably will not be the Colts quarterback, I should say, in 2022, which is just incredible. It's an incredible downfall.

Again, I just want to reiterate that, that the Colts are now in a position, again, a third consecutive offseason after the Andrew Luck retirement, where they have to go find a new quarterback. And it sounds like, from all indications, that the Colts will be willing to cut bait with Carson Wentz, even via release, which says a lot, giving a $15 million dead cap hit to a guy who won't be on your team next year, which will be one of your highest cap hits on the roster next season. So we're going to dive into all of this throughout today's show,

going over the Carson Wentz situation, going over the cap situation of Carson Wentz, maybe what quarterbacks make sense to get off of Carson Wentz for. In the meantime, though, we're going to remind you guys about our sponsor of today's show, which is Built Bar. This is the time of year that I've pretty much given up all my New Year's resolutions, but not this year. I'm sticking to my resolution to eat right, thanks to Built Bar. It almost feels like it's not really a resolution because I actually enjoy eating them.

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which is obviously going to be hanging over the Colts for the next calendar month or so until that deadline date of March 18th comes with his guarantee date. Obviously we know from the national perspective and local perspective that the Colts are fed up with Carson Wentz. From all indications, at least my prediction, I'm very much leaning now towards Carson Wentz not being the Colts quarterback next year.

It was 50-50 after the Jaguars game, got to 60-40 a week or so after they would not be here. But now, especially with the Chris Moore and Super Bowl Sunday, I'm very much in the camp that this is 80-20 or 85-15, leaning in favor of the Colts moving on from Carson Wentz, which is, again, just a huge egg in the face of this entire organization, which they're got to make up for this offseason. But let's go over to Carson Wentz and his contract. If you go to over the cap, which is what I use for all Colts and NFL transactions with salary caps and contracts and everything along those lines, Carson Wentz, his cap hit this

upcoming year is $28.2 million. And for those out there wondering for 2022-23, this is the last upcoming year, so to say, of his contract. Everything else outside of that is quote unquote fake, if you say, because 2023 and 2024, the next two years after this upcoming one, there is no dead money if you move up from Carson Wentz via trade or release. But if you do it this offseason, there is $15 million in dead money if you cut him. Or if you trade him, it would be $0 dead money.

But according to CBS Sports' Jason Lockett, who actually broke the Tom Brady retirement news, he's hearing from NFL league circles that if the Colts want to trade Carson Wentz, they're not going to be able to get off all $28.3 million of this cap hit. $28.3 million for a guy that's not even going to be your quarterback next year. So it's really a, I mean, it's hard to say at this point, but it seems like Jason LaConfora gave out the obvious that the Colts are going to have to at least eat some of that salary of that $28.3 million cap number for this upcoming season to make sure he has any sort of trade market.

We've been hearing a lot of buzz around Tampa Bay in the betting circles. Obviously, BetOnline, our betting partner here at Locked On Podcast Network, actually listed Carson Wentz with the second best odds of being the Bucs quarterback right after the Tom Brady retirement. So there's been smoke there for a while. I think that actually makes a lot of sense. Maybe you eat, let's say, $10 or $12 million of that contract. You trade Wentz to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay sends you back their third-round pick this year, number 91 overall.

I think something like that could make a lot of sense. But if you just straight-up cut Carson Wentz, it'd be $15 million dead hit to the Colts this year. But you'd also save $13.3 million as well if you were to cut him. So that's the thing here. The Colts currently on over the cap, their cap space currently is, it looks like around $40 million. So let's pull up the over the cap sheet here for the Colts and look at the exact number because it looks like here on over the cap currently $37.3 million for the Colts in team cap space. But if you cut Carson Wentz, that goes from 37.3, you add 13.3 to that, that bumps up immediately to $50.6 million in cap space.

If Jack Doyle retires, which it seems like him and T.Y. Hilton are likely to do, that adds another $5 million to the Colts' salary cap, bringing him to $56 million in cap space, entering free agency. If the Colts were to trade Carson Wentz instead of that, you would add on another $15 million to that, which is $71 million. But with the work from Jason Lock and Ford, being that the Colts want to get off of Carson Wentz's contract, you'll have to eat some of that salary via trade if you do that. Let's say they give up $10-12 million off of that. So subtract $12.5 million from that. That would keep the Colts around $55-60 million in cap space if you at least eat some of that contract.

So that's something to watch out for here because Carson Wentz, I think, still has some trade value. I think some team out there is going to be really enthused that they're getting at least a stable quarterback that can give you 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. But we saw in the second half of last season, folks, Carson Wentz is not that guy. I'm very much on that train that he's not that guy. And kudos to the Colts, I guess, for admitting after one year,

this is not going to work out long term. But even still, the draft capital you get up is going to set this team back unless you do trade a really good player off this team to get a first round pick because you're in a really tough spot now, to be quite honest. You're kind of in a pickle of anything. I mean, maybe you can try to swoon Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson via trade, but you don't have a first-round pick this year. Maybe you can go out and get Jimmy Garoppolo, but is he legitimately a big upgrade over Carson Wentz? The Niners are for sure trading this offseason

because the Trey Lance era is officially starting. Kirk Cousins, is Kirk Cousins even an upgrade over Carson Wentz? And is the unvaccination status of Kirk Cousins a huge issue like it was with Carson Wentz. So that's another guy that could be out there as well. Deshaun Watson, we don't have to go over the Deshaun Watson situation. That's not going to happen here in Indianapolis. But just to give you an example, just of the cap hit with Carson Wentz, the Colts are very

flexible right now. They have around $40 million in cap space. So if they cut Wentz, if they trade Wentz, that goes above $50 to $55 million. If you don't eat a lot of that money, you have close to $70 million or $65 million in cash space there. So something to watch out for with this Carson Wentz situation. We dive into the cap a little bit there. I'm going to be very curious to see how the Colts maneuver this. Because from all indications, Frank Wright did not back Carson Wentz at his season-ending press conference after the Jaguars game.

Chris Bauer, his season-ending press conference, talking for over an hour, refused to back Carson Wentz at his season-ending press conference after the Jaguars game. Chris Bauer, his season-ending press conference, talking for over an hour, refused to back Carson Wentz. Jim Irsay has been throwing subtle jabs, I would say, at Carson Wentz via his Twitter account, and we've heard from sources that Irsay is fed up by Wentz in Indianapolis. We've heard from Chris Mortensen on the national side of things and the local side almost every day from JMV, Kevin Bowen. We heard from Chris Mortensen on the national side, like I mentioned, about Carson Wentz

probably not being the guy. So everything is pointing in the direction of the Colts having a new starting quarterback in 2022-23. So what exactly is next for the Colts? Who will they go after? Who makes the most sense in a Carson Wentz situation where you get off his contract and you bring in a new face? Before we do that, we're going to dive into all the options that are realistic here.

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BetOnline. Where the game starts. Back for our final segment today of our show here on Locked on Colts. Again, I'm your host, Evan Sidery. I'm going to make sure now to make sure we turn out more consistent episodes every single day. And more often than not, it might just be me in the saddle as we go through this offseason. But it's going to be a lot of fun. So I appreciate everyone's support here on Locked on Colts and appreciate the patience as well as we're contributing into a new era of Colts football and Locked on Colts as well.

But let's go ahead and dive into our last part of the show, going over the Carson Wentz situation, how exactly that's going to work out for the Colts if they do indeed want to move on from Wentz. Whenever the cap situation in the last seven, whenever exactly how we got here with the national and local angle of the Colts, really souring a Carson Wentz over the last few months, and especially with them choking away a 98% chance of making the playoffs. But for Wentz, here's the thing to me.

I think Wentz will have trade value, whether it be a team like Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh or Carolina, like Carolina or Washington. I think some team out there, even New Orleans, I think some team out there is willing to go by probably a third or a fourth round pick for Carson Wentz to at least stabilize their quarterback position for at least a season or two because quite honestly, Carson Wentz is a guy to me where he can step into a building for a year or two, be a bridge quarterback, but he's nothing more than that. He's proven not to be the franchise guy in Indy.

That wasn't the case in Philadelphia either, even after his magical 2017 season. Wentz has never been able to capture that magic once again. So for a guy like Carson Wentz, I think the Colts will be able to trade him. The question is how much of that salary they will have to eat. If I had to pick a scenario between trading him or releasing him, I think the Colts eventually trade him for some sort of draft capital. I keep coming back to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scenario where let's say they get $10 million of that salary. The Colts eat that. They trade Wentz to Tampa Bay. They get back the Bucs third round pick this year. The Colts have three day two picks.

You can pick at 47, I think it's 85, and then 91. So you have three picks on that Day 2. Get more ammunition if you want to move up there. But in the meantime, I think that makes the most sense right now, as of February 16th, what the Colts should be doing. But in the meantime, though, going over potential destinations, post-wins for this Colts team, start off with the obvious ones. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson.

Either guy requests a trade. The Colts should be all in on them. You'll have to see, obviously, with player empowerment nowadays in the NFL and sports. Hopefully, they're on the preferred destinations list. We actually found out from Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated today that Matthew Stafford had the Colts on his finalist list with the Rams. So that's something to note there. Obviously, the Colts are an attractive destination.

They have the offensive line. They have the defense, the superstar running back, and Jonathan Taylor. Aaron Rodgers, is he going to come to Indy? I would say it's very doubtful. Obviously, I want it to happen as a Colts fan and a Colts critique, but I know the realistic odds of Rodgers being here are very slim. I'd say less than 10%. It's probably more so Rodgers' land to the Denver Broncos via trade,

which has been in the smoke around there all year long. They'd hired Nathaniel Hakata from Green Bay to go to Denver, or it's staying in Green Bay itself. I think that's the two most realistic options right now for Aaron Rodgers. We'll have to see who else gets in the race. The Colts get in the race as well. But that's the big domino to watch out for here is Aaron Rodgers. Once that Rodgers news happens, if he stays or if he wants to go,

we'll know more about the Colts' situation. But I would say it's less than 10% Aaron Rodgers' land that Rodgers news happens, if he stays or if he wants to go, we'll know more about the Colts situation. But I would say it's less than 10% Aaron Rodgers lands with the Colts. Russell Wilson's another guy we didn't mention here at the top. Russell Wilson's a guy to me that checks all the boxes for a Wisconsin guy, just like Chris Ballard. Obviously, he would cost a lot. You would probably get the 2023 first-round pick, your 2024 first-round pick, Carson Wentz on top of that maybe another pick

on top of that maybe a player something along that lines of a package I think makes the most sense for Russell Wilson I really want to come to the Indianapolis Colts because you know Sierra's not going to want to live in Indy so you're have to come up with a creative way of getting Russell Wilson here if he wants to wave his no trade clause for the Colts it's going to be a hefty hefty package but I think they can make it happen. Something like Carson Wentz, Ryan Kelly, two first-round picks. I think that makes an awful lot of sense for those Colts teams. So that's something to watch out for there.

I put Wilson around 25% of that happening. I think it's a lot more realistic for that scenario. But those are the two guys there where I think it's the dream scenario, getting Rodgers or Wilson. But in the end, they probably don't come here. So what exactly do the Colts do after Rodgers and Wilson if they strike out on both those guys? Well, we know Derek Carr is a guy who, in Vegas now,

with Josh McDaniels running the show, after he spurned the Colts a couple years ago, he's with Derek Carr in Las Vegas. There's a lot of smoke around Derek Carr staying in Las Vegas on an extension, around $40 million per year, so that takes Derek Carr off the list. But Derek Carr is the name to watch. I feel like if he does hit the trademark, he's a very realistic target for this Colts team. But I'd place him around 20% again for actually realistic odds.

He ends up in Indianapolis. I think Derek Carr ends up staying in Vegas on an extension. So in that scenario, you'd cross off Derek Carr as well. We have the Kirk Cousins. There has been smoke as of Super Bowl Sunday from Tom Pelosera of the NFL Network that the Vikings are likely to keep Kirk Cousins around this year. Kevin O'Connell, the Rams offensive coordinator who is now the Vikings head coach

was with Sean McVay, obviously from the Sean McVay tree. He goes to Kirk Cousins in Minnesota. There's a relationship already there with O'Connell and Cousins so I imagine for a year they try to keep it going, try to stay steady. Maybe they don't do that. Maybe Kirk Cousins does go on the move.

But is Kirk Cousins much of an upgrade from Carson Wentz where you're willing to trade legitimate draft capital for Kirk Cousins? I'm on the fence about that. I don't think it makes a lot of sense. So I'd put Kirk Cousins around 15% if he ends up with the Colts. Same for Jimmy Garoppolo, who's, we know for sure, going to be traded this offseason. Probably the first domino that's going to fall for the quarterback carousel because the Niners are openly shopping Jimmy Garoppolo after drafting Trey Lance last year.

Obviously, Garoppolo had a great year for the 49ers, but I don't really see the fit there for the Colts. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to trade more draft capital for a guy like Jimmy Garoppolo. I just don't see the point in that, especially with him being another bridge, B&A kind of guy. If you're just going to keep him around for a year and let him hit free agency, you might as well just let Carson Wentz stay around for a year and then cut him for no dead money

and then get your guy. Outside of that, though, we've gone through Garoppolo. We've gone through Cousins. We've gone through Rodgers. We've gone through Wilson. All four of those guys make sense a little bit, but in the end, it's unlikely at this point that the Colts are able to get either of those guys. Some of those guys like Cousins and Garoppolo,

I don't think make much sense for this team in their direction. So that leads us to another point. If they do move off Carson Wentz, do you go to free agency? Do you go to a Marcus Mariota or a Teddy Bridgewater and say, be a bridge guy for a year. Let's see if this thing works out. If it does, we'll extend you next offseason. If not, we move on again and continue on the Colts QB carousel.

But those are two names there I think make the most sense. Mariota or Bridgewater. Even if you keep Carson Wentz around next year, I could see either one of those guys being signed for a legitimate quarterback competition at Grand Park in Westfield this July and August. So those are two names to watch out for there as far as QB competition or legitimate free agent options. But in the meantime, no, I mean, I can't think of anything else off the top of my head

that the Colts could really get out here, which brings me back to the point that Carson Wentz, what's the odds that Carson Wentz is even staying here now? I mean, it seems like the relationship behind the scenes with Wentz and the Colts is not as good as it seems on the surface. Obviously, the ownership with Jermercy seems fed up with Carson Wentz. Chris Ballard, I think, was never sold on Carson Went Carson Wentz Frank Regs a little washy on Carson Wentz now so how exactly do you rebuild this if you keep Carson Wentz around next year I don't think you

can which leads me to my point of obviously Sam Ellinger is not gonna be the quarterback next year but do you roll out a Mariota or a Bridgewater and just say hey 2022 is a year of evaluation which is what not what Colts fans want to hear at all. They want to win. This team is built to win right now. But is it better long-term for the Colts to not be good next year, to be, let's say, in a top 15, top 20 pick, and then you move up in the draft next year to go get a Bryce Young from Alabama,

or you go get a C.J. Stroud from Ohio State atop the 2023 draft, the two consensus top quarterbacks in next year's draft. I feel like that's the one way that makes the most sense for the Colts. But what exactly do you do with Carson Wentz? Do you keep Wentz around that scenario? Do you let him go and sign a bridge quarterback? Do you just tank next year? All these options, I mean, trades, free agency, keeping Wentz,

letting Wentz go, this is just the beginning of the tip of the iceberg for this discussion. It's going to be a lot of intriguing discussion over the next month or so until the course of Wentz's decision date arrives for the Colts. But in the meantime, make sure you listen to Locked On Colts with you five days per week throughout the offseason as well. We're going to be with you guys more consistently throughout the offseason, so we appreciate the support and the patience in the meantime. But also, this Carson Wentz situation is going to take over Colts media,

I would say, for the next couple weeks. So be tuned in for a lot more Carson Wentz content, a lot more Carson Wentz hypothetical scenarios. Also, I'm going to be talking about if they keep Wentz, if they let Wentz go, what exactly they could do. We're going to talk about the draft as well, some potential free agent options too, potential trade options, whether it be quarterback or not. So we're going to have a the draft as well, some potential free agent options too, potential trade options, whether it be quarterback or not.

So we're going to have a lot of fun and discussion, a lot of great topics coming on Locked on Colts over the next few weeks, next few months as we get through this another interesting offseason in Indianapolis. So I appreciate everyone listening in to Locked on Colts. We'll be with you guys five days per week throughout the offseason. In the meantime, thanks again for listening and have a great day.