Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Key Matchups and Over/Unders for Colts vs. Vikings

Episode Date: September 19, 2020

On today's episode, Stampede Blue's Stephen Reed joins to go over the Colts' matchup against Minnesota before kickoff this Sunday. What are the biggest matchups to watch for? Will Indy be able to stop Kirk Cousins after Gardner Minshew tore up their secondary? Adam Thielen could be in store for a big game if another repeat performance happens.The Colts need big games from Jonathan Taylor and Parris Campbell to win this close matchup on paper. Taylor's first NFL start should feature him seeing 15-20 touches, plus Campbell should be a mismatch nightmare against Minnesota's secondary.Closing out the show, Evan and Stephen go over some over/unders via DraftKings. There's a few bets you should go make some easy money on this Sunday, Colts fans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello everybody, welcome back into your latest episode of Locked on Colts, probably Locked on Podcast Network. Today's host is your host, Evan Satter, and joined by Stephen Reed of Scam P Blue, as we're going to preview on our Friday episode, Colts vs. Vikings, as well as go over some over-unders for the game,

and maybe even give you some bold predictions at the end of our show for not only this Sunday's game, but maybe weeks to come as well. Steve, how are you doing today? I'm doing well, Evan. How are you today? Doing well, doing well. Appreciate coming on as always. And let's hit on, just first off, this game. I've been talking through multiple guests so far this week, whether it be George Bremer or Zach Hicks, you as well, previewing it earlier on Sunday. What do you think is going to happen the closer we get to this game? The Colts are still three-point favorites, pretty much a toss-up. A lot of betting odds out there for this Colts-Vikings game. The more I talk about it, too, I had the crossover special as well earlier this week

with the Vikings host from locked on. It seems like, to me, this game is going to be super, super close on paper. Yeah, and both teams have defenses that really struggled last week um and so it's going to be which can kind of put it all together and maybe not even all together but play a little bit better than what they did before um because the colts obviously got chewed up by gardner menchu and you know in 19 for 20 it was kind of a monumental game for him um you know the vikings got eaten up by aaron ro, who's, as we know, is a little bit better than Gardner Minshew.

And so that's obviously a little bit more understandable. But, yeah, I think this game is going to be really close. It should be an exciting game. So hopefully the Colts come out on top. Looking at some keys to the game, Stephen, I'm going to give some of mine, and you can also give some of yours as well. My first one, though, is honestly I think containing Kirk Cousins, getting some pass rush on him consistently. We've seen him before in the past, DeForest Buckner,

with his days in San Francisco. He had a couple great games against Minnesota in the past as well. And with Kirk Cousins, too, I think he really struggles against pressure. So I think it's a big game for Justin Houston, who I know is questionable in the injury report, but he did mention earlier today that he is going to play on Sunday. Ben Bannigan, if he gets more snaps, would be a very important piece, in my opinion,

to get more pass rush on Kirk Cousins. If not, Stephen, I'm really worried that we could see a repeat of last Sunday's game in Jacksonville, because Kirk Cousins, if he did give him time, especially against his soft zone carriage of the Colts, he could pick them apart. Yeah, and Kirk Cousins is kind of known to be a quarterback that will just kind of take what you give him.

And so this could be literally a repeat performance of last week for the Colts defense if they're not able to get that pressure. I agree with you. Getting pressure on Kirk Cousins specifically in his face from that defensive tackle position and being able to have Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, Danico Autry, whoever's rushing from the middle, be able to get that pressure on his face and either force him to be off platform

and force him out of the pocket, force him to be on the move a little bit, to be able to just get him to those edge rushers. That's going to be huge. If you can get a couple hits on him, Kirk Cousins known to be a little just get him to those edge rushers, that's going to be huge. If you can get a couple hits on him, Kirk Cousins is known to be a little bit shaky at times. And so it's super important for them to really focus in on the defensive line and get pressure on Cousins to force the ball out of his hands a little bit quicker than what he'd like.

Yeah, with Cousins too, you have to really wonder as well. You've seen the past. He does struggle against pressure, and if he's able to stay on him a little bit, if he's able to get a consistent rhythm going, it could spell trouble for this Colts defense. And I think one matchup specifically outside the front four battle where this Colts defensive line has got to be more consistent is Xavier Rhodes or Rakia sending it to Adam Thielen.

Thielen is the Vikings' top receiver. Of course, Stephon Diggs is now in Buffalo after the trade this offseason. Justin Jefferson is still getting acclimated to this Vikings team as well. I'm kind of worried, Stephen, too, if – one, if they can get pressure on Cousins, and two, I feel like if they put Xavier Rhodes or Rakia Sin, who's inconsistent still a little bit in his career, on Adam Thielen, this could be one of those games that we saw last year against Denver where Corlin Sutton kind of went off against this team.

I could see a huge outing for Adam Thielen as well. Yeah, that would be the one matchup that really concerns me also for the defense. And it's going to be really interesting how the Colts decide to play their defense and play their cornerbacks because playing a soft zone, like playing an off-man coverage in a cover two um the way that they played it and giving them that space i think gardner mentioned he had only like three or four passes only a handful of passes that were over six yards in the air um last week the colts can't continue to do that and so they need to get pressure up on those

receivers faces so i'll be interested to see how the cornerbacks play this week if they give these guys room to run and some space it's going to be a long day for the Colts defense and like you said the Xavier Rhodes Adam Thielen because that's I don't know what which one they're going to match up with whether it's going to be Xavier Rhodes or whether it's going to be Rakia Seen. I almost think they might send Rakia Seen over there if they're going to shadow Thielen, just because I think that he maybe is a better matchup against Thielen than what Xavier Rhodes is. But whoever is covering Adam Thielen has got the biggest,

he's got the biggest responsibility in the secondary. And you might start to see them shade that safety over a little bit more to try to give help on Thielen, try to bracket coverage him and let the other guys see if they can figure it out. Cause like you said, Justin Jefferson was having, you know, growing pains. It's his first game last week. You know, I think Irv Smith, that the tight end that he was struggling as well. And so you just kind of have to see if they can,

can figure that out and kind of bet on it, bet that they can. Yeah. With this, this really, this is an important matchup in my opinion, this Vikings pass offense against this Colts secondary, because we know Dalvin Cook is a great running back and all, but I have confidence with the Forest Buckner. He's been a great run start throughout his career. Darius Leonard, too, I think speed versus speed with Dalvin Cook can beat him to the outside more often than not.

I know Cook can go off a little bit, but I'm more worried, at least in this matchup, for the Colts pass rush going against this team, especially that secondary with Adam Fiona as well. I think that's really my main primary key of this game is Colts have to get some pressure up from it consistently, as well as winning their matches on the outside, especially against Adam Thielen here. But flipping to the opposite side as well, Stephen, I don't know about you, but I really want to see Jonathan Taylor get at minimum 17 to 18 touches in this game, whether it be in pass and running situations. Preferably, I want it around 20, honestly, maybe even 20 or more,

because I really want to see Jonathan Taylor have one of those games, Stephen, where he just, whether it be in the rush game, like 15 carries and five receptions, something like that, and 100-plus yards. If you get Jonathan Taylor or some momentum and some rhythm going, I feel like as the new bell cow running back for this Colts team, he could have a field day against this Vikings defense that allowed 150-plus yards rushing last week against the Greenback

Packers. That was one of the things last week that I know probably frustrated Vikings fans is the Packers had the ball for, I think, over 40 minutes on offense. The Vikings never really got an opportunity to set that rhythm. That's similar to probably what the Colts and Frank Reich want to do this

week. What they really need to do is establish the offensive line, get Jonathan Taylor touches. I think, I think you're right. I think ideally you want to have him in that 20 to 25 touch range in terms of you'll gain the ball either on rushing attempts or whether it's out of the backfield. And then you want to mix and name Hines and Jordan Wilkins there when you can. One thing that I think is going to be really important for the offense is being able to take advantage of the Minnesota secondary because they are a young secondary and they really struggled

last week with crossers over the middle which is Phillip Rivers bread and butter and it's also something that Paris Campbell does very well so I think this might actually be a really huge opportunity for Paris Campbell to show out this week, just because of the way that the Vikings play their defense and how soft they are on those crossing patterns and, and the amount of space that they give up to the wide receivers there. If Paris Campbell can get some crossers in there, similar to what Devante Adams did last week,

Phillip Rivers could have a big day, despite day despite you kind of expect him to have one of those mental errors where he throws an interception or two. That's just what Phillip Rivers is. And Colts fans, we should understand that now. He is a much better quarterback than Jacoby Brissett. He is going to try to force balls. And when you try to force balls, sometimes they get picked off. More often than not, he's going to make to force balls and when you try to force balls sometimes they get picked off more often than not he's going to make the right play I think that if he gets that opportunity this week the the Colts offense really could start to thrive and start to really kind of hit a rhythm

against this this weaker Minnesota defense and also let me throw in there too when it comes to the Minnesota defense they've got Yannick Ngakwe but he had really struggled against David Bakhtiari last week and you've got Anthony Costanzo and Braden Smith this week who are no slouches and so Yannick Ngakwe is learning a new defense trying to get in there trying to you know create some kind of a pass rush and he's going up against two solid tackles for the Colts. And so hopefully Phillip Rivers will still be able to stay relatively upright. He won't get hit too many times. He won't get sacked again like he didn't get sacked in Jacksonville.

And so I think that's kind of important keys for me for the offense, for the Colts, at least going through this week. Help support your local businesses, whether they're your corner stores, coffee spots, or favorite shops. Local businesses have always been on your team supporting you and your community, but right now more than ever, local businesses need our support. So let's be there for them. Next time you go shopping,

make the choice to shop at local businesses and look for the contactless symbol and tap to pay with the contactless visa to help support your community because where and how you shop matters. Visa, everywhere you want to be a official partner of the NFL. Yeah, and honestly, I'm Paris Campbell. I might as well sprinkle in one of my bold predictions for this year. After seeing how he worked in week one at Phillip Rivers, that chemistry obviously is there.

Rivers historically has always loved those slot receivers. Keenan Allen's always worked out of the slot as well in the San Diego, Los Angeles days. And like you mentioned, Campbell's 4-3-1 speed. The more I see him and the more he's healthy in this offense and the more before he games with Phillip Rivers, maybe it's not even so much of a bold prediction, honestly, Stephen. I could see Paris Campbell now leading this team in catches,

but also yards. Yeah. Well, he did last week. And so, yeah, he did last week. Based on this offense, based on his ability, based on what Phillip Rivers likes to do, I think you're 100% right. I could see him leading the team in receptions and yards this year. Yeah, and moving forward onto another wire seer for this Colts roster,

who I think had a disappointing game last Sunday. He had a few good moments, but a couple drops late at the end of the game where it really cost his team. Rivers put it right in the bucket, and unfortunately, T.Y. Hilton wasn't able to make a few really key catches late in that game. I think this is a game, Stephen, I know we just mentioned Paris Campbell. I imagine Jonathan Taylor will get some passing game, as will Naeem Hines with how Phillip Rivers uses his running backs.

But I think this is a game that's very important in a close matchup where T.Y. Hilton's got to flex his muscles a little bit. Yeah, well, and T.Y. hilton last week was one of the first i think it was the most times that most percentage of snaps he's played outside in his career or at least in his recent career and so i'd be interested to see how they use him uh this week and whether he's able to really kind of make that minnesota defense pay because if they start to try to they realize that they have some issues in the middle of the field on those crossing patterns and they start to you know push defenders there T.Y. Hilton's going to get an opportunity and if T.Y. Hilton is bracket

coverage kind of like what I said the Colts should do without him feeling then Harris Campbell should eat this week but I hope that T.Y. Hilton's got things figured out. You know, the lack of a preseason, the lack of real, like, long training camp really kind of, I think, hurt the quarterback wide receivers that weren't able to get together during the summer and try to work on some timing, work on some ball placement. So that's one of those things that we don't necessarily understand is how a wide receiver is a ball. And that's something that quarterbacks have to learn. And you have to know where you're expecting to get the ball

from a quarterback on a certain route. And so that really, getting more time, hopefully those little things will get taken care of. It was uncharistic to see T.Y. Hilton drop those two balls last week. I don't think that that's something that the Colts fans need to worry about long term. So you kind of hope to see T.Y. get that bounce back game this week. And if he does, great. And if he doesn't, it's probably going to be because Minnesota tries to take him away from the Colts, which means Paris Campbell is going to have a big game. Naheem Hines is going

to have a big game. Mo Alley-Cox, I'm excited about. I think he could have a big game in the receiving category this week. There's still a lot of options for the Colts outside of TY, which is good for the first time in a handful of years. Last thing on this game before we move on to our over-unders here via DraftKings. I looked up here before we got started. I'm glad you mentioned the Jack Doyle injury. And Michael Pimmel Jr. as always at late adds to the injury reports. He got injured middle of the week in practice.

He missed half of yesterday's practice. And on Friday, he missed all of their practice with a toe injury. It's not specifically, Frank Brink did not mention what the injury was just yet but Zach Paschal luckily is back for this team so honestly I don't know if the Colts are going to rush back Michael Pittman Jr. this week or not he didn't play much snaps in week one either so I would not be shocked with Paschal likely playing on Sunday that Pittman sits out as well and Jack Doyle was officially ruled out today by Frank Reich how do you think this offense is going to look Steven without not only Jack Doyle out there like you mentioned Malia, who might be the starter with Trey Burton

still out, but also if Michael Pittman Jr. does not play, how will that look for this offense? I don't think the offense is going to look too different. They ran a lot of 11 personnel last week, which is one running back, one tight end. I think they were right up there in the top four or five teams in the league in terms of percentage of plays they ran out of 11. And so they didn't really focus too much on the two tight end sets last week. I think that obviously is probably not going to change much with Jack Doyle being out with Trey Burton still

being on IR. You might see Danny Penter go in and report as eligible a couple times. The Ball State former tight end, then former tackle, now current guard for the Colts. And I think you also see they raised Darius Fountain to the active roster. So I think that they're probably going to have Michael Pittman sit out this week. If he's got a toe injury, that's kept,

kept him out and they're going to give Dries mountain an opportunity to play some in there. If he's able to dress, but I don't think I see the game plan changing much for the Colts just because of how Phillip rivers likes to use that slot slot receiver and how he likes to use the the running backs out of the backfield and then you sprinkle in a little bit of ty here and there that other receiver Zach Paschal if you notice Michael Pittman some of the better plays that he made last week in Jacksonville was him blocking down the field for example on the screen

pass to Jonathan Taylor it was Michael Pittman that was blocking going into the end zone right there. And so that's kind of similar to what we've seen Zach Pascoe. I think I made that analogy that Michael Pittman is a bigger, stronger, faster, better version of Zach Pascoe, not to discount what Pascoe does, but just in terms of the way he plays, like he does all the things that you want a wide receiver to do. And so in terms of the way the offense is going to change, I don't think it's going to change too much based on any of the injuries,

at least too much from last week. And so that's kind of where my thoughts are on that one. Yeah. I'm really excited. Honestly, I see Molly Cox finally on that tight end one role. Who knows how big his role will be as far as pass catching goes in his first start. But I'm really excited to see maybe a litmus test for Malia Cox, if he could really be the tight end of the future, if he does get forced out a little bit, maybe four to five to six targets.

I'm really curious to see what he does with those types of looks, if he does get those opportunities. Let's move on here into our over-unders, Stephen, for this Vikings versus Colts game. Maybe it will be a weekly seven, who knows right now. But I was looking on DraftKings before we got started here, Stephen, and a lot of interesting over-unders, Stephen, for this Vikings versus Colts game. Maybe it will be a weekly seven. Who knows right now? But I was looking on DraftKings before we got started here, Stephen, and a lot of interesting over-unders here. Listeners, if you want to bet along with us, that's at your own risk. But I think, honestly, these bets look pretty nice for this Colts team.

And, Stephen, I wonder, on your end, how you're going to view these as well. Let's start with Phillip Rivers here. The over-under for his passing yard is 264.5, and his TD pass is 1.5. I could see over for both. What do you think? Yeah. Yeah, I think both of those are going to be over. And I think they'll probably be – I see him definitely thrown for at least

two touchdowns. Now he could also throw for two interceptions, and that wouldn't surprise me either. But I could definitely see him throw for two touchdowns. Now he could also throw for two interceptions, and that wouldn't surprise me either. But I could definitely see him throw for two touchdowns, given the way that the offense is going to be run and how they like to throw the running back out of the backfield. I could see him racking up a ton of yards too. Yeah, I really see this offense, we saw last week in Jacksonville, 400 plus yards. With this Vikings defense play against Green Bay in week one? I think we're in for a repeat performance as far as this Colts offense goes.

Frank Redd looks very confident in Rivers as quarterback. The whole playbook is now open for this Colts team for the first time in a while. So I see a really monster game for this Colts offense. The question is if defense will come to play or not. Moving on to the rushing yards here. This seems like a very easy bet. I would maybe bet the house on this one, Stephen. Over, under, for Jonathan Taylor rushing yards, only 56.5. I think it's way over.

Yeah, I see that being over. I see that being over also based on how the Packers game went last week and how much trouble the Minnesota defense had in terms of stopping the run and just stopping the Packers' period. Yeah, with this rushing attack of this Colts team, I think if they're able to establish a run, get Taylor around 15 carries, he should easily exceed that 54-yard total and really maybe be close to 75, 80, even more than that yard total,

maybe even 100-plus in scrimmage yards to be added in his receptions. I imagine he'll get at least three or four on Sunday with the way Rivers utilizes those running backs. Moving on to the wide receivers here, over-under for T.Y. Hilton is 67.5. I could see over, but I'm just going to play it safe here. I think we're on the same page with Paris Campbell this week who's going to be up next. I'm going to go slightly under 67.5 for T.Y. Hilton.

I can see a touchdown in there, but I think we might see Paris Campbell actually get the lion's share of targets here in week two. Yeah. My gut feeling was to play the under on that one. Just because like we've talked about thus far is how I expect Minnesota to try to take away T.Y. And so they're probably going to roll coverage over to him.

It's going to leave Paris Campbell with an opportunity. This season, get football on your time at NFL Game Pass. You can catch every snap and every game with full game replays and see all the plays in just 45 minutes of condensed games. You'll learn from the league's best players in over 40 film session episodes and get access to the entire NFL Films archive. Go to NFL.com slash Game Pass story for your trial today. NFL Game Pass, where football never stops.

Speaking of Paris Campbell, Stephen, I feel like the jonathan taylor rushing bet this seems like an easy over to me only 45.5 receiving yards for campbell per draft kings i'm hammering you over there oh wow yeah i yeah yeah i would definitely take the over on that one i don't think that that's even really a question especially given how much he was targeted last week. He had, what, six or eight receptions last week for 71 yards, and he ate in the places that the Vikings defense is soft, and so I expect a big game from Paris Campbell. Yeah, Paris Campbell is, I think, poised for a big game. He's over under for receptions, too. He's only four and a half.

I think it's going to be over as well. I mean, just the way I'm talking about Paris Campbell this week, and Stephen, I think looking at this game in week two, I think if he does get fed, let's say, seven to ten targets in this game, maybe that's a little much, maybe more on the seven to eight range total. If he does get a couple extra, the more the merrier. I think we could see Paris Campbell bust out a little bit and get maybe a close to 100-yard gain for the first time in his career. Yeah, I think that's reasonable

given everything that we've seen from him thus far. That makes a lot of sense to me. Looking at another over-under here before we get into the predictions, Stephen. So, for the over-under versus interceptions that we talked about, the over-under here before we get into the prediction, Steven, so throw up versus intercepts that we talked about. The over-under was one and a half touchdowns for the interceptions on draft Kings. It's 0.5. Do you see him throwing at least one interception?

I think he's going to stay clean and go for zero. No, I think he's going to throw for at least one interception. I, I would, I hope that he doesn't, you know, I hope that they,

they take care of that and they fix the issues there. I don't have a lot of faith in it just because of his mentality and how he plays. I'm going to go bold here. I'm going to say zero interceptions for Rivers. I think this might be a game where the Colts establish to run a little bit, maybe get 20 to 25 carries, and maybe even Taylor gets around 20 carries himself.

If you add in nine, mine is Jordan Wilkins. Maybe it gets close to the 30. And if they're able to establish that run early, I could see Rivers maybe throwing the ball around 25, 26 times in this game. Maybe take a couple deep shots here and there, a lot of crossing around to Paris Campbell. I'm going to go zero here. I'm just going to be a little bold and say this Colts offense

will be humming at full speed and Rivers will stay clean as far as the turnover category goes. But let's get into the game predictions for this one, Stephen. I mentioned our crossover podcast with Luke Braunlock on Vikings yesterday on our Crossover Thursday show. I'm going 30-27 for the Colts, and I'm going to go overtime as well. I think it's going to be a very, very close game. I can see Rodrigo Blankenship making a game winner in overtime,

and the defense comes with a stop late in that game as well in overtime. The over-under for this game, it looks like, per DraftKings, is going to be 49, which has gone up a little bit since we last talked, and the spread is Colts minus three. So I have the Colts barely covering that one, and I'm going over. What say you, Stephen? I would say the under on the points, that's basically running like a 29-29 game, so like a 30-28, 30-27 game.

Or no, that's a – no, you know what? I'll go over on the points going to be a 28 – no, 31 to 24. And I think it's going to be a touchdown game. Are you imagining a shootout on Sunday, Stephen? I kind of convinced myself we're going to see that. The more I think about it, the more I think that it might end up being that way just because I don't have a lot of faith in either defense. And after last week, especially I don't think I,

I don't think Minnesota is going to have really much to be able to stop the Colts. I think the Colts could stop the Vikings if they get it all together and really hold them, hold them to very little points, a bunch of field goals versus any touchdowns. And so I think that based on last week, it should be a shootout. I think that there's an opportunity for it not to be. So I'm basically playing both sides here, which is annoyingly for radio listeners, I'm sure, podcast listeners.

But, yeah, I kind of think – I kind of hedge that it's probably going to be a shootout in this game. Yeah, I really think this should be a really fun matchup for this Colts team, even if it's a close one, even if the Colts do lose this game. I think it's going to be a very entertaining game. I think it's going to be pretty high scoring. We'll see how high scoring gets on Sunday. But looking at the Colts' schedule here for a second, seeing what before we end up with this show, of course they lost to the Jaguars, a pretty shocking loss last Sunday.

How important is this Vikings game on Sunday, Steven, to avoid going 0-2? I know the Colts after this had the Jets, Bears, Browns, and Bengals, and the Lions. But I think this year, especially with how low the AFC looks like it's going to be, you can't afford to drop to 0-2, especially on your home turf. You know, people will say this is a must-win. I don't necessarily think it is a must-win. I think it would be obviously helpful if they won. The fact is the Colts have some pretty – have some easier games,

quote-unquote easier games coming up um with the teams that you've mentioned um and so they've got an opportunity to right the ship if they do lose this week um and you have to take into account that you've got the extra wild card um spot this year you have that that third wild card um i believe they've instituted that this year. And so you've got an opportunity to make the playoffs, even if you don't win the division. I think you're going to see Baltimore and Pittsburgh running away with things in the AFC North.

Cleveland looks like they're okay. I don't know what's going to happen in the AFC East. The AFC South, it's Tennessee and the Colts, I think. And then the AFC West, it's the Chiefs. I don't see the Chargers doing much. So it should be competitive at the end, but I think that probably 10-6, 9-7 gets you in that conversation to be able to make the playoffs.

And I think there's enough games down the road that the Colts would be able to get to that, that marker. And I wouldn't be as concerned if they lost this week. You know, obviously I would like it more if they won, but I wouldn't consider this necessarily a must win game. Steven, always enjoy talking with you, man. You guys can go follow him on Twitter at nice read, Stephen, go on stampede blue to read and listen to his content as well.

Steven, appreciate the time, man. All right. Thanks Evan.