Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS -10/12- Indianapolis Colts Week 6 Keys to Victory Over The Houston Texans

Episode Date: October 12, 2016

The #Colts high-powered offense will be squaring up against the #Texans stingy defense, while the team's are struggling in other facets of the game. Which unit will lay claim to dominance in prime time with the whole country watching, and what 'must' the Colts do to ensure a big divisional victory? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, where are you going, Jim? The elevator's over here. Taking the stairs. But our meeting's up on 8. Yeah, I know. But that's 8 floors up. That's like 8 times... I don't... a lot of stairs. That's the point. I've already lost a few pounds and earned almost $100 in wellness incentives. Whoa, you're getting rewarded for working out? Yeah, I know. I'm just as surprised as you are, Bob.

Fearless is full of surprises. That's the power of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Federal Employee Program. Learn more about our healthy benefits and sign up at fepblue.org slash choose blue by December 11th. You are Locked On Colts. Your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back to Locked On Colts, ladies and gentlemen. I'm your host, Matt Dainley, and tonight we are going to break down the keys to the Colts defeating the Texans this Sunday to get to 500 and sit atop the AFC South for the first time this season. First, I want to remind you to subscribe to the

Locked On NFL channel. Subscribe to Locked On Colts. Thank you again for all of your help in sharing the show. I really appreciate it. You you guys have been great love how much you guys are interacting with not only myself but each other and others about uh about the show it's really cool to see and i just wanted to again as i usually do send a thank you out to you guys and that i appreciate it and it lets me know that this uh this thing's moving in the right direction and it's great to see the numbers continue to take an uptick day by day and week by week. It really is great. First things first though, and I wanted to tell you guys that we're going to have a giveaway that I've been talking about here for a little while now. And it is going to be an Andrew Luck jersey. So we're going to get the stipulations on that all squared away here in the next day or two.

And I will relay that information to you guys so that you guys can enter to win an Andrew Luck jersey. And we will be probably having that drawing or contest or however we're going to do that probably next week. So I'm kind of anxious to get that started and anxious to see how many of you are going to enter that. Obviously, I think that's something that a lot of you are going to be interested in. So I will try not to put too many entries in for myself. But only kidding. That'll be great. And I hope that a lot of you can join and enter that. And I hope that I'm excited for one of you to be able to win that jersey.

But let's get started here. And when we're looking at this matchup here with the Colts and the Texans this week, some of it kind of takes us by surprise because we, you know, mainly everybody, including myself, to be honest with you, expected the Texans' offense to be kind of high-powered maybe a little bit, expected their running game to not only, you know, they're notorious for running the ball quite a bit, but we expected Lamar Miller to be, you know, kind of a catalyst in there to offset Brock Osweiler in there to make it a little bit more of a smoother transition for him, for him to take the passing game up with some of his weapons with Fuller and Miller and, you know, a bunch of those guys and Hopkins. It seems like it's an offense that's just ripe for the picking to

explode, but they've been just about anything but explosive this season so far. Their offense is only scoring 16.5 points per game. That's the bottom of the league, 31st, or near the bottom of the league, I guess. They're at 310 yards per game 27th in the league their third down efficiency is pretty bad it's in the near the bottom third 21st in the league at 37 percent and their turnover differential you know is not good they're they're turning the ball over far more than they are uh getting turnovers so there's some other factors in there with them but you know that offense right now is, is struggling and the Colts need to pounce on that. And as much as the Colts have been

laying in wait to have a big defensive game and have failed to, you know, kind of put their stamp on a team one time, you know, regardless of how bad their, their season's been defensively, all in all, they really need to have one of these games. And if there is a game like that, I think this Texans game is it. The Texans also have currently zero offensive rushing touchdowns. They have zero 20-yard rushes, and they're 29th in yards per game in passing. So if we're looking to one of the main keys for the Colts to take this Texans team out of the matchup as early as possible, the Colts really have to not only keep them out of the end zone on the ground, they can't allow any big running plays. And that's a big issue for the

Colts. They gave up a big 57 or 58 yard runner to Jordan Howard the other day. They're notorious for letting big holes open up and for running backs to scamper through, getting huge gains, often touchdowns. This is something that they absolutely cannot afford this Sunday if they are going to match wits with O'Brien. Kind of holistically here, they have to stop the run game in general, I think. You know, the Texans offensive line is so-so, pretty decent, nothing world-beating by any means, but they failed to get in the end zone on the ground. And, you know, with 16 and a half points per game, they're failing to get in the end zone at all. This has to be one of those games where the Colts look great. Now, here's the thing. The Colts can actually allow the Texans to improve

their scoring per game average, I think. If the Colts were to give up 17 points, I think, aside from other factors we'll get into soon, I think the Colts have a very good shot at winning that game. So there's a reason that the Texans have fallen off a little bit since the first week or two of the season. It's because their offense right now is in dire straits as far as getting the ball in the end zone. That's good for the Colts. So the first key of the game is for the Colts to,

is first, they can't allow any rushing touchdowns. And then 1B is they can't allow any big runs nothing plus 20 yards obviously nothing bigger than that and when you think about it that's really one of the big matchups it's kind of funny how this is going to work out this weekend because the matchup between the Texans offense and the Colts defense is nice I mean for us we have you and the Colts' defense is nice. I mean, for us, we have, you know, the Colts do not have a good defense at the moment, and the Texans do not have a good offense at the moment. I think the Texans' offense can explode a little bit, but I think this defense, this Colts' defense,

can also do something to stop the Texans' offense just the same, and I think they can have a big night. Now, the Colts aren't creating a ton of turnovers either, but this also has to be a game where they do create a couple, at least maybe three turnovers in a game. That's kind of been their bread and butter to win games, to kind of take them out of reach from the opponent, is to not only win the turnover battle, but to handily do it.

I'm going to say one of the second keys of this game is going to be winning the turnover battle by at least two. I think the Colts need to be, you know, if the Colts turn the ball over with a pick or an unsightly fumble, which is both possible at some point in the game, the Colts then are going to have to force three, I think, to really get this because that Texans defense is pretty stout. However, they minimum have to win the turnover battle, but I think they've almost got to win it by two. So I think that's going to be our second one there. They've got to double up on the turnover battle for sure.

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only allowing 20 points per game. But if the Colts do that, like I said, the Texans defense is allowing 20.8 points per game, basically 21 points a game. If the Colts do that, they can win the game, especially if the Texans are held to their average for the season on offense. They're allowing 300 yards per game. That's fifth. That's really pretty unseen. But that's been the Texans' calling card over the past few years is their defense because their offense has been so anemic. They are ninth in the league on defensive third down efficiency with 36%,

and they're only allowing 16.2 first downs per game that's third best in the league that's pretty insane so that defense like I said is pretty stout but this matchup just like the other is the Colts high-powered offense with Andrew Luck who's tearing it up in the second halves had a good start to this last game this past weekend, but he's going up against a top, definitely a top third defense in the league. So the Colts have only seen one of those this year with the Denver Broncos. They've had a couple games where they've played some less than great defenses and haven't really gotten a start on those guys quite as early. But they have the best pass defense in the league at the moment in yards per game. They're ninth in the league in 20-yard passes allowed,

and they've only allowed three passing touchdowns so far. So this key is basically going to be a combination of a few different things as well. The Colts have to get the ball downfield. They've got to get those big plays on these guys because they're not used to having them put up on them. Not only that, but they've got to score through the air because that rush defense is insane kind of for Houston. So, I mean, we're going to see if we get inside the five, you know, we're definitely going to see at least one run. We've got to see Andrew Luck be able to punch it in there through the air that close to the goal line as well. And the Colts have had pretty good success against them inside the red zone in the past. So the Colts have to get big games out of Andrew Luck and the receivers. They've simply got to win at the line of scrimmage

at the top of their routes. Phillip Dorsett has to kind of evolve into a bigger threat. He is not getting the targets that a lot of guys are in this offense, and he's got to come out, you know, jump out and prove himself, and this would be a great day for him to do it, while a lot of the focus is going to be on T.Y. Hilton. The Texans consistently are punching T.Y. at the line of scrimmage when he's trying to get off the initial punch, and Philip Dorsett simply has to be better than he's been so far. He's been good, especially his routes have been pretty solid for the majority of the season, but he's got to be better in every aspect. And he's got to become

possible, you know, he could possibly need to be the number one target this week for luck, because they are going to cover the tight ends. Ferguson is really nothing out of the backfield for the Colts. At least he hasn't proved to be quite yet. Frank Gore is going to get stopped consistently up front. Hopefully he has a big game. That'd be nice. I don't know that it's necessary. The Colts don't need him to have a huge game in order to win. They do have to be solid in the running game, I think, for the Colts to win. But we're going to focus this key elsewhere. The Colts have to score through the air against this Texans defense.

Why do they have to score through the air? Because, like I said, their rush defense is fantastic. Their pass defense is even better. But they've got to put these guys on their heels. If they can chew up a ton of yardage through the air and score on them through the air, that's going to instantly bring their confidence level down. And their confidence level down in Houston is going to mean big things. T.Y. Hilton has exploded against the Texans at home. Like I said, they're going to be digging on him hardcore. So if he can have another big game, that'd be

great. Sometimes it's taken him until the second half to really dig his feet in there in Houston as well. So we need some big play out of Jack Doyle. They need big play and consistent play out of Phil Dorsett. Chester Rogers is coming along, becoming more of a target for Andrew Luck. Maybe he can step up as well, but the Colts have to show that they've got at least a three-prong attack through the air. Their receivers have to be on their game as much as they've ever been, and they've got to make them pay. They've got not only to chew up yardage through the air, they've ever been, and they've got to make them pay. They've got not only to chew up yardage through the air, they've got to score, they've got to finish drives, and they've got to come up with some big plays. This is all part of the mental game that will be

played in Houston this weekend. Now, another key to this game is penalties, especially for the Colts. That's definitely near the bottom of the league. I mean, it's 27th in offensive penalties at least. The Colts have to clean this crap up. This is, I mean, it is very amateurish how many penalties they're having, silly penalties, the center not snapping the ball, Ryan Kelly not snapping the ball, luck not being ready for the ball when it is snapped, guys jumping not snapping the ball, Luck not being ready for the ball when it is snapped,

guys jumping off, you know, jumping after they've just huddled up, you know, for the first time in three or four minutes like Dwayne Allen did the other day. I just couldn't believe that. The one time that they huddle up in a few-minute stretch, he jumps on the count. So we cannot have silly stuff like that. They've got to block well, obviously. They can't hold. The penalties, just in general, have got to be cleaned up. The Colts have had a ton of pass interference calls. They can't afford to have those and give this Texans offense struggling so much, extra chances downfield. I mean, all-encompassing, and they've got to cut that crap down. I mean, they need to be well under 10 penalties a game,

and they definitely need to do it this weekend. Now this Colts offense, like I said, this Colts offense is fantastic behind Andrew Luck. The Texans defense is fantastic. Even without J.J. Watt, they're doing amazing things in the passing game. They're getting contributions from guys that they probably didn't expect to. The Colts are right in the middle of the pack in their turnover differential. They have actually, they're even at the moment, and they've got to continue to do that. They can force a few turnovers. The Colts, just the same, whereas the Texans have only given up three passing touchdowns, the Colts have 10. So the Colts got to punch it in on them, really take it, take the wind right out of their sails as well. The Colts on offense have over 22 first downs per game,

which is fourth in the league. They've got to continue to do that. They've got to be better on first and second down as well. You know, they did pretty good job this past weekend and in the week before wasn't, wasn't terrible, but it was after they were already slumping quite a bit when they started to really fire. So the Colts have to do that consistently through all four quarters, be able to be effective on first and second down. They've got to have their third down conversion. They've got to be able to extend drives.

And a lot of it has been by penalty themselves. So the Colts are drawing penalties when they're on offense, but the Colts can't rely on them on third downs to extend drives. Because I'll tell you what, there's been several that the drives have been extended by fluky situations. So the Colts can't rely on that type of stuff. Now the next key of this game is going to be the Colts have to get two sacks. This all ties into everything that we're doing before. Keys after keys after keys.

The Colts have to get two sacks in this game. Colts haven't had a sack since week four. They've got to find a pass rush. They've got to find a way to get these guys to the quarterback. Ted Monachino's got to be better at drawing stuff up like this. He's got to find a way to attack that Texans offensive line and get pressure on Brock Osweiler. We have seen Brock Osweiler now through five games, and he is the epitome of a rattled quarterback once he starts getting some pressure on him. He sees ghosts in the pocket. He'll leave the pocket early. The Colts have

really got to put this guy on notice right off the jump. And it's up to Monachino to draw up some key blitzes and to be able to put some pressure on him immediately as well as not minimizing their coverage in the process. And the last key of the game is Colts have to keep Andrew Luck clean. This is something that should be every single week, especially right now. Colts are, Andrew Luck's been sacked 20 times already this year. That is four times a game. That is far too many times. Andrew Luck was fantastic when given time in the pocket last week. The Colts started pretty quick last week, you know, scoring on all their first half possessions, meaningful possessions anyways.

And they've got to keep Andrew Luck clean. The Colts cannot allow a sack. This defense is way too opportunistic. The Texans are readily forcing fumbles. They get in there to Andrew Luck. He's got to protect the ball. But the offensive line's got to do a better job. Joe Philbin has got to really earn his paycheck this week and get this offensive line ready to go.

These guys have to be, you know, they're getting healthier and they've got to be ready to go and they've got to keep Andrew Luck clean. They've got to figure out a way to do it. It's just too pathetic for it not to be getting any better. The Colts have to get up for this. They've got to keep Andrew Luck upright so that he can make these plays downfield because when he gets just that extra couple seconds to throw the ball, he's phenomenal. T.Y. Hilton gets open. Philip Dorsett gets open on his late breaking routes. Chester Rogers is getting open late downfield. Yes, they need to get open quicker if possible, but the Colts' offense is designed a little bit better protection up front.

He's not getting it right now, and these deeper routes that are opening up later on down the field, he's not getting a chance to move around to them. So they've got to give him another outlet other than Ferguson, who's struggling right now as far as I'm concerned, to get the ball past his first defender that he sees. You know, he's got to have more yak. He's got to be able to evade a defender or two as well. But in the end, keeping Luck clean is the key to the game, and that's the number one key to the game as far as I'm concerned.

Keep him upright, the Colts will win. I don't think there's any two ways about it, regardless of how good the Texans' pass defense is. Andrew Luck has been dicing up teams when he gets at least three, three and a half seconds to throw the ball. And that's all there is to it. Luck stays clean, Colts win. There's just no two ways about it, I don't think. So with that, those are our keys for this Sunday's game in Houston.

And the Colts will be fighting to at least take a piece of the AFC South lead. And they need it. The Colts need their confidence to rise. We, as fans, need our confidence to rise in this team. And we've got to see some positive outcomes. So thank you for joining me again. As always, go subscribe to the podcast, share the shows, like the shows, get to me at LockedOnColtsPod at gmail.com,

LockedOnColts on Twitter, the LockedOnColts Facebook page, and anywhere else. You can always catch me on Twitter at mdanley__nfl. Thank you again for joining me, and I will talk to you all on our Thursday show of lockdown Colts. You are locked on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast, part of the locked on podcast network,

your team every day.