Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS 10/14/19: Colts return from bye week with biggest game of the season

Episode Date: October 15, 2019

On today's episode, Zach Hicks of Stampede Blue returns to help reassess where the Colts stand coming off an amazing win over the Chiefs. Their bye week couldn't have come at a better time in terms of injuries, but a huge slate is on tap this week and throughout the rest of the season.Houston's own win over Kansas City sets up a huge showdown at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. If the Colts are able to pull this one off, they will control their own density the rest of the way. Before we dive into that matchup, we go over many facets of the Colts' offense.Is Jacoby Brissett the long-term answer for the Colts through 30 percent of the season? Zach's answer may surprise you. Also, this past week showed how dominant their offensive line truly is.Finally, we go over the Texans game with our usual keys plus predictions. This is truly a must-win for Indianapolis if they want to host a playoff game. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, everybody. Welcome back into Locked On Colts, pretty Locked On podcast network. Today's always been your host, Evan Sutter. I'm joined by our weekly guest, Zach Hicks of Stampede Blue. How you doing today, Zach? Pretty good, man. Nice coming off the bye week here. You know, it's always a nice weekend when the Colts don't lose. So bye week is always nice. But yeah, it's great to be back on the show here and great to look forward to some Colts football this weekend. Let me ask you this, Zach, because I know we had George on George on George Vermeer last week at the Herald Bulletin and talk about the game and I want your opinion of this too because I mean I was as stunned as anyone else I think we were all on the same page we thought the Colts were going to lose this game probably by double dudes there probably wasn't going to be much of a fight out there with the

how high power this offense was but you see the offensive attack dominating the offensive line with Quentin Nelson up front Anthony Costanzo doing a great job, and the rest of those guys just mauling those guys for 180 yards rushing. Then you see what they did as well on defense. Matt Eberfuss in their game plan playing a lot more man coverage than they have with zone. That game just shocked me, Zach. Yeah, no, it shocked me too, and it's actually kind of funny. I put in a private chat with the other guys over at CMP Blue. We have a

slack channel where we talk about um you know colts and writing and all that stuff and and i said before the game uh jokingly i said it like a couple days before the game i said the only way i see the colts can win this game is if they dominate the time possession if they just grind it out on the ground the entire game and then on defense they play man coverage and they just don't allow much separation. And then I, you know, jokingly afterwards, like, you know, they're not going to do that, though. They're going to go out there and the Chiefs are just going to be airing it out against their zone defense.

But to my surprise and to the surprise of all of us, you know, Matt Iberflues changed it up. On defense, he ran a lot of man, which, one, I think, fits the cornerbacks a lot better than what the zone defense has this year. And also, it's kind of been shown to be the way to beat the Chiefs now. I mean, we saw this past weekend with the Texans. They came out with a bunch of man. We saw the Patriots game last year when the Patriots beat them in the playoffs.

They ran a lot of man. And the Lions game the week before the Colts was a lot of man coverage as well. So teams are kind of figuring out how to run that man coverage. And honestly, the Colts kind of showed it on prime time. If you run that man coverage, guys like Robinson and Nicole Hardman, they can't really separate as much and you can get Travis Kelsey's head. So, you know, you got to give a lot of credit to Matt Eberflus and also a lot of credit to the offensive game plan too, to really put that keep away. I just think it was all around. It was a great game plan and hats off to Matt Eberflus,

the whole defense and even the offense for not having the greatest game of the year, but just controlling the clock and controlling the game. It was just a great overall game to pull off that big upset

on the national stage like that. Yeah, it certainly was. Colts won 19-13, by the way, if anyone did not there. And overall with this game, Zach, I just feel like one of my biggest takeaways, when you start on the offensive side first, is how good this offensive line is. I know we all knew it was a top three unit, but after what they did on prime

time against this Kansas City defense, which isn't great, of course, but what they did on a national audience, Quinn Nelson, once again, was dominant again. Do you feel like Marlon Mack and that offensive line, they're jaw at this point where they could be a run first team the rest of the season? Oh yeah, certainly. And I think that's kind of the way they're going to have to play it this season. I'm not out on Jacoby Bissett. I don't dislike anything about him. I think he's playing some decent football. But he's not the strong center point, the focal point of his offense. The offense is revolving around your strength,, your, your strength,

which is your offensive line. And, you know, while we're on the offensive line, I wrote an article this week about Quentin Nelson. I mean, we all know how good he is, but I mean, when you look at the film, I think he is having one of the most dominant years I've ever seen from an offensive lineman. And I've watched lines. I watched guards. I watched a lot of offensive linemen it's like one of my hobbies uh Quinton Nelson is playing at a level that I have never really seen before in the NFL I mean he is absolutely dominant uh in every facet of the game

uh you know the rest of the line is playing great as well they're the strength of this team and so is Marlon Mack Marlon Mack is having an outstanding season as well uh fifth in the league in rushing uh but you know you got to give it off to that offensive line and the running back. Those guys are playing really well, but Quentin Nelson is just playing at an otherworldly level right now. So just keep playing behind that strength. Jacoby's not the strength of this team. The offensive line and Marlon Mack are, and that's perfectly fine. I see them definitely riding that strength to the finish line this year. They've only allowed one sack, and I believe only one or two hits over the last three weeks to Jacoby Brissett in this offense, which is certainly a great sign for what we saw last year when they didn't allow a sack for five straight games. So they're back on the positive side of things there with the offensive line,

and it's going to be definitely a strength to this team moving forward here. But let me ask you this, Zach. Overall, what do you think of Marlon Mack as a player now because we've always said he's an underrated player but now we're kind of in that full-fledged like breakout mode right now yeah no I actually came into the year as one of his biggest critics I guess is one way I'd put it maybe not critic maybe uh skeptical of a big year uh just because you know he was never really a well-rounded running back you know even coming into the NFL he was more of an athlete playing running back than he was a pure running back even and then last year there were aspects of his game where he needed to improve you know

his vision got better late in the year but it still wasn't really where he wanted to be his patience wasn't great towards the end of last season his contact balance was was pretty bad last year I think he was 36 in the league in terms of like forcing missed tackles and such. So there was areas of the game where I wanted to see improvement before I was really all aboard the hype train. But this year, he's definitely shut me up and he shut up any of his critics. I mean, he's having an outstanding season. Even the games, you know, he had that three game stretch in between the Chiefs game and the Chargers game where he really wasn't, you know, putting up the best stats, the best fantasy points,

anything like that. But you could just see how much better he was than even last year. He's running so much harder now. He's running through tacklers. He looks so much stronger at the point of attack. His vision, his patience look just great. The offensive line last year, I think, was making yards for him. But this year, you can really see the difference that he's making yards for himself. You know, and that's the

biggest thing between a good running back and a great running back. So I think last year, we saw some good signs. But this season, I think we're really seeing the making of, you know, a top 10 running back in the NFL. I think he's, he's that good. He's having a Pro Bowl caliber season. He's just been outstanding this season. I think he's definitely the strength of this team right now. The team's definitely going to ride his coattails to the finish line again. He's having a great season. He's on pace for over 300 carries, which is by far the most in his career. I believe 210 was the market USF that he had in college. He's definitely earning that bell cow status, so to say.

I think another player at the running back position, Zach, that we talked about a couple weeks ago, Jordan Wilkins. And I think he's looking more and more like the perfect change of pace kind of guy from Marlon Mack on this team. And I've seen some people say the culture draft a running back early in this draft, like a J.K. Dobbins or something like that, like in the second or third round, just to add some more depth there. But when you see a guy like Jordan Wilkins,

you can kind of do the same job there I kind of like what they have there oh yeah Jordan Wilkins is great you know I'm never going to be uh you know biased when I'm not going to be unbiased I guess talking about Jordan Wilkins because you know when it comes to running back prospects you know coming into the draft he's probably one of my favorites I've ever scouted and you know it's not from because he's that physical beast he's never going to be a starting running back in the NFL. He doesn't have the speed, the quickness, any of that kind of stuff. But, you know, he's so good when it comes to finding the hole, being patient. And his vision is almost like second nature to him. You know, Marlon Mack, you could tell he worked on his vision. And there's still some

moments where he misses holes because, you know, it's not really natural to him. It's something that he really has to develop. Where Jordan Wilkins, you know, the play side could be to the right. He'll find a little crease to the left side where no one else is even expecting him to go. He just always finds the hole. He always finds positive yards at field, you know, except for that big loss in the toss play last game.

But besides that, when he's going uh last game but besides that when he when he's going up the gut i mean he always finds space he always gets forward progress so yeah i think he's having a great season as well uh you know he's obviously not the the kind of player that mac is he probably never will be uh but you know if you want a guy who can catch the ball the back field uh be one of the best pass protectors in the league i think he's a great pass blocking running back as well and along with you know getting those positive yards finding the hole at all times and you know occasionally breaking one like he did against the titans i think he's a great pass blocking running back as well. And along with, you know, getting those positive yards, finding the hole at all times, and, you know, occasionally breaking one like he did against the Titans,

I think he's a really good change of pace back, and he really complements Marlon Mack well. So I would like to see his snaps and his carries go up a little bit, especially to, you know, get Marlon Mack down below around 300 carries this year. I don't want to see him get up towards 300 or so, just so he doesn't get wore down too much but you know Wilkins I think is having a great season I would love to get him more carries and more looks out there speaking of running the ball more Zach I saw a tweet from yours earlier today about you're going to do a film study

about second and longs in the Frank Reich offense I was wondering if you've gotten around to that yet and just what you've noticed before you like you tweeted that out there why do you think Frank Reich yeah yeah yeah so you know I I'm sure I'm not the only one. I'm sure some of your listeners will kind of agree with me. It just feels like Frank Reich ran the ball a lot on second and long. I don't know if that's how it's something you've seen as well. Just watching the games, it feels like he runs the ball a lot on second and long. And that confused me because almost all analytics when it comes to football point towards, you know, don't you ever run the ball on second and long. And Frank Reich is one of those coaches where you can tell he's really up to date on analytics.

He goes from a fourth down a lot. He'll quarterback sneak every opportunity he can. Those are really high analytical things that he's incorporating into his play, calling it a scheme. So I was thinking that it was just weird that he was running the ball so much on the second and long, but I actually went through the stats. If you want to go on there on my Twitter, at ZachKicks2, there's a little thread there of the stats. I believe he runs the ball 35% of the time on second and long, which actually isn't that bad.

I thought it was much worse, you know, watching the games live. And, you know, they average about 4.3 yards per carry, I believe. They've never got a first down on the second long running, but overall, it's accomplishing what he wants. You know, they're getting those four yards, they're getting four or five yards, you know, per play on those, and they're getting into shorter situations. So, you know, it kind of disproved what I thought it was going to be. I thought it was going to be much higher there. But, you know, again, Frank Reich, I was trying to find one flaw in him, I guess, but I couldn't. He's doing everything by the book, and he's doing everything right. You know, he's following

analytics. He's following, you know, risky play calling, but he's doing it well, and the Colts are winning games, even games that they shouldn't be winning. They're winning because he's just calling some great games. So, you know, hats off again to Frank Reich. Even when I thought that he wasn't following analytics and he wasn't following the analytics and he wasn't doing something kind of according to trend, he kind of was. So, I mean, Frank Reich is just a great coach overall. Peloton is offering a limited-time offer.

Get 100 hours off accessories when you purchase the Peloton bike and get a great career working at home. Go to onepeloton.com and use promo code LOCKED, L-O-C-K-E-D, to get started. Is it fair to say if Quentin Nelson is not the MVP of this team through five weeks, which I personally think he is, with the way the offensive line he is playing himself, but I think Frank Reich, if they had Chuck Pagano in this position and stuff, Frank Reich, I don't know if they have two wins at this point, Zach.

No, no. I mean, if they have just an average coach, they're not at this position. And again, it's not me kind of slighting you know Jacoby or slighting anyone else like defense or anything like that they're all playing fine but you know when when you have a lot of average I guess like the defense gets kind of played average to below average uh you know those first five games especially except against the uh the Chiefs you know the other games they played pretty below average and then even Jacoby you know he's been average below average in a couple of the games this year when you kind of have that all that going uh you really need your your head coach to kind of pick up the slack you know to make those

risky calls and you need the players to put together and they really play hard for frank reich and and reich put some positions to do all that so yeah reich is definitely the mvp of the team i know quentin nelson you know obviously is is one of those top tier players in the league, and you always want to say he's the MVP. But, you know, without Frank Reich, they're not at three wins right now going into the spy or, you know, after the spy. So Frank Reich is an outstanding coach, and he's just adding to his resume this year. This is really impressive what he's doing with this team and how far he's getting them. Yeah, Colts are 3-2 now.

Going off the bye week now, we've had about eight days to soak in that Chiefs win. So before we look ahead to that Texans game, which is all of a sudden now looking like the game of the year for both sides here, as they try to control the AFC South, I want to get your overall opinion. Through 30% of the season, Zach, so far, Jacoby Bursette, do you think he's more of what we've seen already? I mean, I would guess it I, I'd be guessed. It's fair to say he's been more of a game manager than he has been a franchise quarterback. Do you,

I mean, at this point with what you've seen through five weeks, Zach, is this the kind of quarterback you'd want to lean this team move forward? With what I've seen as of right now? No, but I'm still holding out hope. And, and the main reason is I think someone put it well earlier today on on social media they said that coming off the bye last year Frank Reich really opened up the offense and I believe they scored 67 points in two home games right after the bye week so I'm kind of hoping that you know the bye week to kind of instill more of the offense maybe have some of your guys back healthy you know T.Y. Hilton's not going to have a nagging injury

and he's not going to be injured. I want to see more of the offense explosion and more of the offense opening up. But from what I've seen these first few weeks, I think the biggest way I would say this, the Oakland game I think is the perfect example. You know, Oakland's better than what we thought going into that game. They're actually a pretty solid team this year.

But, you know, in the second half of the Oakland game, they had six possessions to score twice to bring that game to the tie or, or to take the lead in that game, six possessions in the second half where they just need to score twice to, you know, win that game. And at the end of the day, no matter how bad your team is playing offense, defense, you know, receiver dropping balls, no matter how bad they're playing I need my quarter I need to be able to look at my quarterback and say if I can be successful in the second half

you can score those two times to get back in the game you can win us the game that we're not going to win that we shouldn't that we don't deserve to win you know uh and and that kind of just soured on me that they weren't able to pull that one off because there were so many opportunities uh you know there's other moments too where I'm looking at Jacoby and there's aspects of his game I'm not in love with right now. But I'm still holding a hope. You know, they can still install more offense. They can still take some more shots. He can still have more opportunities to really explode with his offense.

But as of right now, I'm not really there yet where I would say, you know, he's the guy. I want to see more. I just want to see more from him, you know, going forward. And I think he's going to have every opportunity to do so because it's going to be a tight division race with the Texans. And, you know, we have them coming to town this week, too. So it's going to be a big game,

and it's going to be a tight division race all year with the Colts and Texans. Yeah, absolutely. And that's a fair assessment there on Jacoby Bursette. I'm probably in the same boat as you right now, but like you, I'm holding out hope that he has a couple of explosive games here down the stretch of this season with 11 games to go for the Colts here. But Texans are now 4-2, the Colts are 3-2. Those would be for the first place in the AFC South,

and arguably probably one of these teams might only make the playoffs here. But the AFC seems kind of wide open this year. Maybe both these teams eventually make the playoffs here. But for a home playoff game, eventually, I feel like this is the kind of game you have to win to get that top spot in the AFC South. So what's your overall opinion of this matchup here? And after the Chiefs win – or excuse me, the Chiefs lose to the Texans there.

Yeah, I mean, it's two teams coming in hot. You know, Deshaun Watson is playing some great football this year. And he's always been a guy that, you know, I've kind of never been as high on because he plays a very sporadic, all-over-the-place style where, you know, his accuracy is not always great. He throws some really questionable passes, but, you know, that sporadic style is kind of working for him this year, and, you know, it's kind of worked throughout his whole career. So it's kind of that point where it's hard to ignore it. He's playing some great football right now. He's probably up there in the MVP voting if that were to happen today. He's really leading that team down these past few games.

You know, overall, the Texans are not a great football team. You know, their offensive line is still really bad. Their secondary is still really bad. But, you know, when you have the star power they have, you know, with Deshaun Watson, with, you know, Will Fuller playing the way he is, with DeAndre Hopkins, and then on defense, J.J. Watt, Charles Medohohu and Whitney Merciless are playing great I mean they're a good football team but I think it's going to be a really good game I think two teams coming hot both coming off big upset wins in Arrowhead so I think it's gonna be a really big big game for

playoff implications you know down the stretch and I think it's going to be a really big game for for both these fan bases as well. I'm excited for this one. What would you say, Zach, are the biggest holes in Houston's game right now? I think you mentioned them right away there, the offensive line, the secondary, anything else there? Yeah, I mean, offensive line, secondary are the biggest, but one that kind of gets thrown out every now and then is the coaching staff. I don't think their coaching staff even somewhat compares to the Colts coaching staff.

I think Frank Reich is ahead of everything on analytics, on motivating his players, on just play calling and everything, just everything that goes with being a head coach, especially like a play calling head coach. Whereas I think Bill O'Brien, you know, at least a step or two behind him in every aspect. And I think that's going to be a big key this weekend. I think, you know, Wright is going to out-coach Bill O'Brien for sure. Will the Colts players be able to outplay the Texans players is going to be the big question. Yeah, it certainly will be because I think this match is going to be very close here. I think that the early spread on the game was Colts minus one.

So that's pretty much a toss-up wherever you look at right now. And with Watson there, how do you rattle him? I mean, obviously his offensive line isn't the best, but we saw kind of the last few times the Colts have played him, they've had success there. Guys, let's have a chat real quick. Remember the days when you're always ready to go? Now you can increase performance and get that extra confidence in bed.

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fast as a pill so you can be ready whenever an opportunity arises. Again, that is bluechew.com for all your latest information. Yeah, I know it's kind of weird. A lot of quarterbacks especially the quarterbacks that we all grew up watching, you always want to get them out of the pocket. You want to get them on the move, you want to get them

kind of freelancing a little bit. But today's quarterbacks are different, you know, Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson, those are all guys you want to actually keep in the pocket. So I think the key is getting pressure, but also getting like contained pressure. Don't let him get on the outside. Don't let him freelance and stick on your assignments down in the backfield or down in the secondary. You know, stick on your assignments, keep them in the pocket. Don't let him kind of get out there where he can freelance and do his thing and, you know, really hurt you.

So, you know, get pressure, get pressure early, get pressure on the interior, on those weaker guards and weaker center. But you've got to get in the space and you've got to keep them in the pocket and get them down quick because if you can get to the outside and you can improvise, he's going to hurt you. I think another X factor for this game and one who definitely showed out in his homecoming, so to say, was Justin Houston in Kansas City last week. But with Kamoka Ture going out, Zach, that's a huge loss for this team.

And I think Justin Houston's going to have to have those kind of games very often now throughout the rest but with Kamoka Ture going out, Zach, that's a huge loss for this team, and I think Justin Houston's going to have those kind of games very often now throughout the rest of the season with Ture being out. Yeah, certainly. He's going to be relied on not only as a veteran presence, but also as, you know, we paid you this money to come in here and get sacks and really get to the quarterback. So I think that's going to be a big for him.

But another player who I think they really – is going to really have to step up with Torre being out is going to be Ben Bonigou. You know, they have a lot of expectations for him. I know that the Colts are actually grading the season pretty high as of right now. They're really high on the season, even though they're kind of bringing him along really slow. I know that everyone in that organization really loves Ben Bonigou and they have really high expectations for him going forward. So we'll see if his snaps go up now with

Kamogatari being out. They're going to still bring him along slow, but he has every opportunity now to really seize that spot as the speed rusher off the bench and really make the most of the opportunity. Zach, what would you say your game plan would be against his Texans team? They could be just like Kansas City last week where he just run the ball

until he can't stop a time possession to keep Watts off the field, or do you trust this team with Jacoby and this bad Texan secondary to maybe even get in a shootout? So the game plan would not be to get in the shootout like initially. I wouldn't be too concerned getting into one just because, again, I think their secondary is pretty poor. But in my opinion, and even the people who are the biggest on Jacoby and think Jacoby's a great quarterback will say that Deshaun Watson's still better than him

and personally I think Deshaun Watson's better than Jacoby Brissett and I don't think that's a hot take by any means personally I don't like to get in a shootout with the team that has the better quarterback so I think just keep that game plan simple and kind of keep it the way it was against Kansas City. You know, you don't have to win the pretty fashion ever in the NFL. You know, just stay disciplined. Don't hurt yourself with bad penalties. Pound the rock and control the clock.

And don't let the talented quarterback or MVP caliber quarterback, even on the other side, get the ball. And you're going to have success. So I think the Kansas City game plan, I think, is going to be a good one for this week. Last thing I have for you, Zach, what would be your three keys for the game on Sunday? Yeah, it kind of goes with what I just said there. You know, feedback. He had a lot of success in the Houston games last year,

especially in the playoff game. I believe he rushed for the most playoff rushing yards, I think, in Colts history or maybe even the top five in all time in Colts history last year against the Texans playoffs. Just keep feeding your workhorse. Also feeding Jordan Wilkins as well, but just keep pounding the rock on the ground. Force turnovers on defense. You know, you don't have to stop Watson, but if you can contain him

and you can force some mistakes, which he's very prone to do, definitely get that. And then the third one is another one that relies to Watson. Just get pressure on him, especially interior pressure. Janiko Autry has to have a huge game. Justin Houston has a big game. Really get after him and force pressure. And again, make him turn the ball over because he's a great quarterback, but he's definitely prone to turn the ball over. So create turnovers, create pressure, and then pound the rock on the other side, and you'll find success in this game. I think the Colts are going to win this game, Zach, but I think it's going to be very close.

I think it's going to be just like you said. It's going to be more for the Kansas City game plan of how Deshaun Watson's MVP candidate. He's one of the best corrects in that far. Now, they're going to come up with as much as they can. So I'm going to go 23-20 Colts and a very close one. What do you think? Yeah, I think the same way, actually. I'm going to go 23-20 Colts and a very close one what do you think yeah I think the the same way actually I'm going to go 27-24 though a little bit higher score but I think Colts pulled out 27-24 at home all right Zach what anything else as far as this game goes because I think to be honest like I don't remember last year this big

of a game like we're still staying for the playoffs happen yeah you know the playoffs were uh you know in in uh houston so it wasn't as huge game uh you know as a home game or anything like that uh but yeah this game's huge especially it's a big test for this team uh in the post andrew luck era uh how they're going to kind of get over this hurdle of uh you know a big home game uh with a really good team coming in uh if they can really show out again on the national stage how good they are. So I think it's going to be a really big game for the team. And something that we've always kind of seen with Frank Reich outside of maybe the Oakland game and maybe the Jets game last year,

is they almost always show up to these types of games. They're going to put their best foot forward, and they're going to really punch them in the mouth. So I'm excited for this game. I think it's going to be a really good game. Totally agree with you there. I think it's going to be a really good game. Totally agree with you there. I think it's going to be a very fun game. Colts fans, if you live in Indianapolis,

definitely go to the game on Sunday. It's going to be a really good one. But you can follow Zach on Twitter, add Zach Hicks too. You can read his work over at Stampede Blue as well. Zach, appreciate your time as always. Of course, man. Thank you.