Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS -1/12- Predicting The Divisional Round Matchups

Episode Date: January 12, 2017

With an exciting set of games this weekend, Matt looks at, both, the #NFC and #AFC mtachups, predicting those who will move on to the Championship round of the NFL #Playoffs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash getmore. No, I'm not for sale. You are lockeded On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back to Locked On Colts, ladies and gentlemen. I'm your host, Matt Dainley. And today we're going to switch things up just a little bit. We're not going to go Colts specific on this. We're going to talk about the divisional round of the playoffs and I'm going to give you guys my picks for these games, kind of give you

a brief overview of why I think one team will be successful versus another and vice versa and we're just going to kick this bad boy off and we're going to see who's going to end up being in the divisional championships. Could be an exciting, this should be a fantastic weekend of football. I mean, it really could. We've got what, four or five of the top offenses in the league still left in the playoffs, but we've only got a couple of the top defenses. So that'll be interesting to see and interesting to see how these matchups kind of play out. So let's kind of start this off. We're going to go in order here. On Saturday, the three-seed Seattle travels to the number two-seed Atlanta at 435 Eastern Time. This is a rematch of a fantastic game, one of the better games of the year,

where the Seahawks ended up pulling out a 30-28 victory in Atlanta. And if you remember right, there was a lack of a play or a lack of a pass interference call that kind of solidified that game for Seattle. This is a game where, again, we see Seattle, who's a number five defense per Football Outsiders DVOA model, and Atlanta is the top offense in the league. So this is going to be a serious clash. I mean, two teams, button heads that really are going to be phenomenal. And it's that kind of a side. We've seen this before. We've talked about these kind of games where you've got two strengths playing each other, and then you've got two weaknesses playing each other. So you've got the top, you've got the fifth ranked defense in Seattle and the top ranked offense in Atlanta.

But on the other hand, you've got the 17th ranked offense in Seattle playing the 27th ranked defense in Atlanta. That's where the game is going to be won or lost. We see it all the time. Seattle's struggled, you know, kind of to really be a dynamic offense. They looked pretty good this past week, but you've got an Atlanta defense that is basically living and dying by their pass rush and specifically on the edges with Beasley and the other guys. So this is going to be really interesting. I'm going to have to go ahead and give Atlanta the win in this one, only because I don't think that Seattle's defense is looking quite as well with a couple guys missing. And I just think Atlanta's offense, with the two games that Julio Jones missed,

I think that that gave some of the other guys an opportunity to get in there and get comfortable within the offense and get a little more reps, a few more targets. I'm going to go with Atlanta in this one, and I don't think it's going to be quite a 30-28 game like it was last time. I do think that Seattle's defense will be able to quell Atlanta's offense a bit, but I think that it's going to be more of a 28 to 24 kind of type of game. I don't think it'll be quite that high, and it could even be less than that, 26-24, 24-21, somewhere around there. But I'm giving Atlanta the win in this one.

I think they've got enough on defense. Their defense doesn't play well against the run. They don't play particularly well against the pass, but they do come up with opportunities, and that's something that I think is going to be the difference in this game. The next one, Houston at New England, number four against the top-ranked Patriots, or the first seed Patriots. This is the 8-15 Eastern time. This is a blowout in the making making but you have a New England team that's finishing the season 14-2 is as dynamic as ever with Tom Brady back in the lineup they've really hit their stride lately finishing with seven straight wins to finish the season, and they've only lost once in the past 12 weeks.

So this is a team that really is on the roll that they need to be on to make a deep run in this playoffs. I just think they're the best overall team when you look at both sides of the ball. New England is number two in total offense. That's not much of a difference here from number one to number two. But their defense is just in the top half of the league. However, Houston's offense is awful. They're just not anything that resembles a quality offense. Osweiler played a little bit better last week.

The running game was bleh, you know, not great. But their receivers, you know, seemed to be able to break away from Oakland's poor secondary. That's not going to happen this week. This, I mean, I would expect almost New England to get some defensive points in this one as well, which is going to really set back Houston's attempt at trying to get to the next level here in the playoffs. Not only that, but I don't think that their offense in general can put up more than one touchdown.

You have a possibility of maybe something happening on special teams, but I'm not going to give Houston more than 10 points in this game, and I don't think that it's quite possible, to be honest with you, that New England scores any less than 20 in this. In fact, the lowest they've scored on the season is 16, and that was against a top-rated Denver defense, which is just not going to happen. So, I mean, granted, Houston's defense is number seven per football outsiders model, but it's still not going to be enough to stop Tom Brady. It just isn't. So, I'm going with New England on this one big, and I'm going to give them 28 to 10. I think it's going to be quite a bit of a blowout. So I'm

not sure what the line is on that, but I don't think this one's going to be particularly close. Kind of stinks with the night game. You know, you, you, you go into the night game wanting to see a good game by the end of the night, but it's still Saturday. Everybody gets to wake up, you know, and you still get another full day of football. So the next matchup is the number three seed Pittsburgh Steelers against the number two seed Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City. This is going to be at 105. And, you know, Kansas City got that by and they look about, you know, they're such a hard team to gauge. They have a really tough defense, but their offense can be so stagnant at times and just look awful. But at other times, you know, and Alex Smith, you know, to his credit, has been pretty stinking good in his playoff history.

He's actually a 60 percent completion rate, 11 touchdowns, one interception throughout his playoff history. I mean, he's passing for 1,300 yards in five games, but I'm pretty sure that that's going to get it done, 250 yards a game against Pittsburgh defense that is now a good pass-rushing team. We're really crazy how they have turned it on the second half of the season, but their secondary is always suspect. Their secondary is going to give up some plays to Alex, depending if he goes downfield or not. Like I said, he typically has in the playoffs,

which is kind of totally backwards from what he's done in the regular season throughout his entire career. But again, the Steelers haven't lost since week 10. They decimated the Miami Dolphins 30-12 last week. But on the other hand, Andy Reid is such an innovator in this offense. He's going to move his offensive game plan around these pass rushers, and he's going to have a little something to say about it too. Now, the Chiefs did lose in Week 15 to the Titans. They lost in overtime in Week 12 to the Broncos, but aside from that, they hadn't lost since Week 4, and that Week 4 game, that was against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they got blown out. So, what are we going to see? It's definitely not going to be a blowout. This is one of the more

interesting games, I think, of the entire setup. I think Ben Roethlisberger is clearly the superior quarterback here. I think that Pittsburgh's pass rush is going to get to Alex Smith eventually, but I also think that Pittsburgh's offense could struggle against this Kansas City defense. If Ben Roethlisberger is constantly trying to extend plays and get plays downfield, he's going to run into a buzzsaw with this Kansas City secondary, in my opinion. They have been phenomenal all year, and Marcus Peters and Barry and these guys, they've actually had some other corners kind of step up and really be playmakers for them in the latter portion of the season. So I actually, I'm going to have the Pittsburgh getting upset here, but it's going to be a phenomenal game. I just can't wait to see this one either.

I'm going to give this a 24-20 game, and it's going to be Kansas City winning it, and I'm going to say that Kansas City is going to end up winning it on a defensive score. I know this isn't necessary, but it's fun for me, so that's what I'm just going to say. I think Kansas City is going to end up capping this game off with a defensive score as Pittsburgh doesn't get too smart with a lead midway through the fourth quarter, and then Kansas City's defense kind of shuts them down. Really a good game. I could honestly see this one going either way, but that's where I'm going for right now. Next game, the night game or the late afternoon game, is the four-seed Green Bay Packers at the number one

seed Dallas Cowboys. This is going to be another fantastic game. Guys, we have a phenomenal lineup in the playoffs this year. Again, some really, really amazing matchups. Dallas' offense is number three per the DVOA. Green Bay's is number four. And you get on the other side of the ball. You've got Dallas' defense is ranked 17th, Green Bay's is 20th. However, Green Bay has done really, really good in the run game lately. So

this is going to be a very interesting matchup on both sides of the ball. Both really high scoring, really quality offenses against some subpar defense. The secondary for Green Bay has to scare anybody who's a fan of the Packers. While on the other hand, the Cowboys secondary has come alive. Some of the guys that you didn't really expect to be serious contributors have played really, really well lately. Dallas has been a very opportunistic defense all year. This is another, like I said, another fantastic matchup. Green Bay hasn't lost since week 11. I mean, they took, like, what, four L's there in a row from week 8 to week 11. And their last loss to Washington, they come in against the Cowboys

where they ended up losing to them in week six, 30-16. This is not the same team for either team. The Cowboys are just as well off, but Green Bay is truly hitting their stride. They've scored at least 21 points in every game, but they've also scored 27 or more in five of those last six games. 38, 30, 38, and 31, that's a ton of offense, and that's going to be difficult for this Dallas defense to try to overcome. You know, while when you look at Dallas, they lost their last game, not a big thing, they rested some guys, but they lost in week 14 to the Giants, 7-10. But look at their

scoring, because only before that, the last loss was week one against the Giants. So you've got them putting up some major points too with a couple blips here and there. But since week eight, they've only scored under 26 points three times. That 17-15 win against Minnesota, which was kind of an odd game, that 7-10 loss to the Giants, and then this past week, or week 17, which like I said, I'm not really going to count. They arrested some guys. That was kind of a strange game anyways, but they put up some major points. 29-35, 35-27, 31-26, 42. That's a ton of offense too. So we've got two really good offenses here. We've got an amazing setup where we have a rookie quarterback, a rookie running back, and they are just blowing teams away offensively. And I for one hope that Dak Prescott plays

fantastic. I hope Zeke plays fantastic. I also want to see Green Bay with their run defense just stopping Zeke a few times, just drilling him at the line of scrimmage. I also want to see somebody get to Dak Prescott. But on the other side of it, I want to see the same thing. I want to see this to be a battle because I think that's where you really see what you're going to figure out in the coming years from a couple rookies. So, you know, Green Bay, they've got such a weird running attack now with Montgomery back there. Aaron Rodgers is going to

be without Jordy Nelson more than likely because of his ribs. These guys are going to have to step up on offense and it's a little bit of a different dynamic for them as well, but with Aaron Rodgers back there, the guy can simply just dance around, pop up into the pocket, and then pop back, and he gives himself another five to six seconds of time back there to throw a ball, make a decision. I don't even know really how to call this game, but this is not going to be more than a field goal, I think. I don't know what the line is on this one either, but it shouldn't be more than a field goal, in my opinion. I'm going 30-27, and I'm going to give it to Dallas. I think Dallas is the darling of the NFL this year. They've got that offensive line. I just think Dak Prescott's going to be so

difficult for that Green Bay defense because they've got to keep their eyes on both he and Zeke in that backfield. I think that Prescott's going to be able to get out of the pocket a little bit, and I think that that would be their game plan to keep him out of the pocket, to get him on the edges and try to either, you know, can he run? Because he throws the ball extremely well on the run, but also he's got the speed to get out and just pick up some, you know, five, six, seven yards here and there. That doesn't do as much as far as breaking down, you know, a huge offensive game as it does confusing the defense and what they need to watch because guys start missing their assignments, start losing their keys and stuff like that. And it's just the

threat of Prescott being able to get out there and kind of have his way on the edges. And if you're, I mean, you've got some really good receivers on this end as well. This is going to be a fantastic game. 30-27 Dallas. Great lineup this Sunday, this Saturday, this weekend, all of it. Fantastic. I can't wait to watch. I hope that you guys watch and enjoy this as much as I do. So right now, it appears that not only this weekend is going to be amazing, but then championship weekend is going to be just as good. So we're going to have four good games this week. Hopefully we have two phenomenal games next week. I can't wait. This is one of the best sets of three weeks of playoffs I think than you could imagine. I don't think that Houston has a chance

to get past this at all, at all, unless Tom Brady goes down. And then before he goes down, he throws two picks, one of them getting returned for a touchdown. There's just no way that Houston's getting out of this round. Anybody else that goes forward in any of these games and ends up getting into the Super Bowl, I think it's going to be a great Super Bowl. I just think that this is one of the best post-wildcard weekend matchup groupings that we've got. So I hope you guys enjoy this weekend. I know I'm going to. Thank you guys for allowing me to get in here and talk NFL-wide, not strictly just Colts.

But this is what we've got coming up. We've got some conversations that we're going to have. Again, we're going to get to some other positions, guys that people need to look at. I'm going to give you guys my track down of the top free agents at each position of need for the Colts. I've kind of researched that. I've done an article on it as well for FanRag Sports. But I'm also going to be breaking down Andrew Luck's season for FanRag Sports.

So I'll be leaving the link in the show notes and stuff for that so that you guys can kind of track that down as well. But thank you guys for joining me here at Locked on Colts. You can always get a hold of me, mdanley__nfl on Twitter. You can get the show at Locked on Colts, Locked on Colts on Facebook, Locked on ColtsPod at gmail.com. And as always, if you're interested in sponsoring the show, please reach out to me

via the email and let me know. We've gotten some great results from guys that have sponsored the show in the past. Mike Ernest, a real estate guy from Indianapolis has done phenomenal work. He's continuing to get more and more big time clients. And a lot of it's coming from this show. So I want to thank you, the listeners, for paying attention and going forward. If you guys are looking for a house, get a hold of Mike Ernest. He's a phenomenal guy. He's doing great work and everything else. So thank you guys all, and I will talk to you tomorrow right here on Locked on Colts.

You are Locked on Colts, your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.