Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS -11/28- Indianapolis Colts Desperate to Make Late Season Run Towards Playoffs

Episode Date: November 28, 2016

The Indianapolis #Colts are in a bit of a predicament as they get set for their final five games of the season. They need to turn things around in a hurry and it all starts with a convincing showing Monday night against the New York Jets. What should the Colts expect to see Monday night in New York? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

No, I'm not for sale. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back to Locked On Colts, ladies and gentlemen. I'm your host, Matt Dainley, and welcome to a Locked On Colts for Monday, November 28th. And we finally have a game this week. You know, we were having the same feelings after the bye. Now the Colts have come, you know, since Thursday,

had a little bit of extra time off. Now they've got this sort of a mini-bye, so to speak. And they're all set to play the New York Jets on Monday night football. So they've even got a little bit of extra time, even for a previous week's Thursday game, you know, getting that extra Sunday to get healthy or whatever, and the Colts need it for sure. Lots of guys leaving the game this past week, and it was just an awful, awful set of circumstances.

I mean, no luck, and then losing multiple guys like Kelly and Good, and so, I mean, just everybody involved. So the Colts are coming back. You know, it's hard to get ourselves all wound up and excited to see these guys play. We hope Luck's back from the concussion protocol. We assume, I mean, just as a blanket assumption, we would assume that he will be back. But these things can linger. I mean, they're just as vulnerable. You know, your brain's just as vulnerable, if not more vulnerable,

than just about any body part on you. So, like I said, we can assume that luck will be back, but we don't know that for sure. So we really want to kind of take a look at who we're playing, you know, this coming or this following Monday and see what the Jets are made of. And there's a lot of things that we can discuss. They're nothing to write home about. There are some certain areas of the game of their team

where they are certain to give the Colts problems. There's no doubt about it. And we've seen in the past that once the Colts have problem areas, certain aspects of the game, the defense or the team that they're playing, whether it's offensively or defensively, seem to begin to exploit even more weaknesses on the Colts. So only time will tell. Hands are up in the air on this because you just really don't know

what's going to come of it. But on paper, it would suggest that the Colts have a favorable matchup. However, interesting defenses and stuff tend to give the Colts have a favorable matchup. However, interesting defenses and stuff tend to give the Colts problems a little bit, mainly, you know, as we'll discuss in certain areas where the Jets are successful. So we'll look through that here in just a moment. And first, I want to talk to you guys about SeatGeek. It's a fantastic app for your phone, allows you guys to search a multitude of sites to get the best prices for your tickets. Absolutely has all these innovative features that show you guys exactly where your seat will be,

what view from the field that it'll be. It's really great. I mean, it is absolutely the smartest and easiest way to find tickets for football games that you want to see up close and in person this season. There's nothing like being in the stadium for the biggest plays of the year. And with Seat Geek, it's never been easier to get the guaranteed seats that you want for a great value. I have SeatGeek on my phone and you guys know this. I've talked about the app several times. It's by far the easiest way to find or shop for tickets. I can be anywhere and with literally a few taps on my phone I can instantly find seats for this weekend's game or any other game this season. With SeatGeek, you always get the best deal on every ticket because SeatGeek price compares for you by searching multiple

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first SeatGeek purchase. To get your $20 rebate, check this out. Download the SeatGeek app. Before looking for tickets, go to the settings tab and click add a promo code. Enter promo code LOCOLTS. SeatGeek will send you $20 bang right back in your pocket after you've made your first ticket purchase. Download the SeatGeek app and enter promo code LOCOLTS today. All right, now let's get into what we're going to see this weekend. I mean, if we're going to look at a couple different areas, you know, we're going to look at a multitude of different factors. Ultimately, when we look at, let's look at their defense first. Situationally, their defense is, you know, below all all together I mean if you look at

football outsiders they're 20 they're ranked 23rd of total defense and surprisingly they're they're better in pass defense you know I think as we'll see if we get into just raw statistics and stuff later you'll see that they're probably one of the better teams now this is situationally DVOA is all situational and account on a situational account. So you'll see different, uh, viewpoints from this. So, uh, they're, they're, they don't change much either. They're fairly, uh, middle of the pack in their variants, but they're, they're down there quite a bit in defense, which is, uh, I think it's surprising because their defenses, they're basically their calling card right now. And you add those couple games in there that they had with Bryce Petty, now they've kind of gone back to Ryan Fitzpatrick,

and it's basically a crapshoot of what we're going to see. Not so much which quarterback we're going to see, but what kind of a performance we're going to see. Now, obviously their offense has struggled mightily, or they wouldn't have even wasted their time going to Bryce Petty. But they're 27th in DVOA for the offense on football outsiders. And they have a really bad passing offense this year, which is something that was kind of the opposite of last year. You know, last year it was Fitzpatrick's breakout season as a quarterback. They're pretty good running the ball.

I think we all knew that they would be decent at that. So we see kind of where they break down in that regard. Now, if we're looking at kind of a points per game thing, they're only putting up just under 18 points a game, which puts them near the bottom of the league. They're 21st in yards per game. And almost always, and maybe more importantly, to see where they're at with their offensive makeup, they're 18th overall, 5.4 yards

per play, which is equal to that of the Indianapolis Colts. So we know that they can put up yards, but they're just going to do it in a different way. Like I said, their passing game is struggling right now, and they're going to run all over the Colts if they're not careful. That's something that the Colts absolutely have to get in check for this week, because if they don't, you know, they're going to be in a world of hurt. It's just not a situation that the Colts can afford to allow them to run all over us. Also, right there in the middle of the pack in third down percentage on offense, their turnover differential is something that sets them apart from a lot of teams and drops them to the bottom of the league. They're negative 13 in that regard, and that's something

that the Colts are going to have to take advantage of. If you're looking at flat rankings, the Colts aren't far off from where the Jets are at at 25th. However, the Colts are negative five, the Jets are negative 13. That's a big difference. So the Colts are going to have to force turnovers. They haven't been doing that as of late. They're not exactly a team that's going to make a bunch of interceptions. They're not going to force a ton of fumbles. And that's just something that the Colts are going to have to start doing if they hope to be successful at all. Now we look at them defensively, the Jets are giving up 24 points a game, which is about, you know, a little bit less than what the Colts are actually averaging on offense. So that's something that, you know, the Colts are actually averaging on offense. So that's something that the Colts

are going to have to maintain. They're going to have to actually force the Jets to give up what they're giving and put some points on the board. The Colts have struggled in a couple different games this year. At the beginning of the season, they were struggling to put the first half together, and now they're struggling to put the second half together. The Colts are going to have to put four quarters of football together or they're going to be in a world of hurt. Also defensively, the Jets are giving up 348 yards per game. That's 12th in the league. Not such a bad deal for them.

And like I said, something that kind of sets them apart and allows a more realistic version of what they're doing. They're giving up 5.5 yards per play, which puts them real close to the middle of the pack. Third down percentage, they're pretty stingy. I mean, it's really close here. You've got anywhere from 6th in the league all the way down to 19th in the league is a difference of three percentage points. But if you want to look at it as in rank, the Jets are giving up 38% third down, first downs. So that's something else that

the Colts are going to have to make sure that they're good at. And the Colts haven't been very good at that this year. I mean, they haven't been terrible, but they're not making those critical third down completions, critical third down runs, you know, and so on and so forth. They seem to be having some back and forth games or weeks, you know, back-to-back weeks never really seem to yield the same results. So the Colts really have a lot to be yet to be desired in that category. Now the Jets are 3-8. Does that kind of tell you what they are? I don't know, but they've lost three in a row.

So the Colts, you know, as in they've won three of their last five. So that's not terrible. You know, it's kind of a different approach to this game. However, it is Monday night. It is in prime time. The Colts aren't great in prime time. Regardless of what their record says, they just don't play well. We've talked about this. Records can say a lot of things, but when you talk about how they're actually playing the games,

that's a different story. The Colts have to play this Jets team hard. They have to show up on both sides of the ball, and they've got to do it for four quarters because the Colts have a really strange schedule coming up where they will play the Texans, Vikings, Raiders, and Jaguars to end the season after Monday night. And the Texans lost and look inept again on offense. Just look terrible to the Chargers. The Vikings, they lost again. That's what, four out of five, five out of six that they've lost in a row. The Raiders end up pulling one out. They look as good as ever, and the Jaguars continue to look like the doormat of the league. Two of their best receivers aren't getting any targets hardly until late in the game. The majority of their targets is going to Marquise Lee, their third receiver.

So it's kind of strange how they're putting the rest of their season together. You would think that they'd want to be a little more audacious about how they go about their game, but they're really putting the ball in the hands of their running back, Chris Ivory, to get them to go. And not to mention, not only this Monday, but in week 15 and 16, the Colts are on the road. So they've got the only last two games at home are AFC South games, and they've really got to win four out of these last five easy. I mean, if they don't, they're going to have a lot of trouble getting winning the division so uh the colts this week

have a bit of a strange matchup like we've talked about they're playing a jets team who's fifth in the league in rushing yards allowed uh only giving up only giving up about 85 yards a game that's actually fourth in the league they're actually fifth in the league in total yards given up per game and they're only given up three and a half yards per carry. And that's about, you know, something that the Colts have settled for in the past with their running game. And the Colts have to be better than that. They have to be a lot better than that.

And they've only given up seven 20-yard plays. That's not something that the Colts are going to do a lot as far as break off 20-yard runs. It would be a huge uptick in production had they do that this Monday night. That would be nice to see a couple of those big runs. Again, I would like to see the Colts use more of an attack style with a little bit more of a zone concept, less of a power concept. The Colts can allow these teams to take themselves right out of a play. That would allow for a lot better cutback lanes for Frank Gore, Turbin, whoever's in the backfield.

And this is something the Colts need to learn to do. You don't have to be the power running team to get bigger yards. You have to be more intelligent about the play calls and you watch what the defense up front is doing. And if they're overplaying and they're crashing the entire time to one side or the other, let them crash. Allow them to put themselves in a hole and allow Frank Gore to do what know, do what he does, use his vision, get small, get through these holes and stuff like that because the running game, believe it or not, folks,

is going to be something that the Colts absolutely need as they go on and continue this season. It's something that they can't afford to fall back on. So let's hope for seeing Andrew Luck back this week. let's hope for a lot of these guys to be back this week let's hope for the coaching staff has gotten some rest and get their self together it would be really nice the Colts really desperately need to knock out like I said four or five of these four of the last five games and if they don, it's going to be an early exit this season. There'll be no postseason. And that's not going to be a good spot for the Colts in draft order. And that seems to be

kind of a popular topic when we talk about record and such. But at this point, unless the Colts were to go 0-5 here in the last five weeks of the season, the Colts aren't doing anything phenomenal in the draft as far as bidding for a top spot. And that shouldn't be on anybody's mind right now. There's still plenty of opportunity to get themselves into the playoffs. And that really is the opportunity that they need because we know from past situations that the Colts can have a rough season. They can have a rough time here or there, and they can end up winning a game or two. I mean, is that all for nothing? I mean, is it Super Bowl or bust with a team that shouldn't be really past the wildcard round? I don't think so.

If you look at this Colts team, there isn't really a whole lot more that you should expect from them. Colts have a lot of rebuilding to do over the next couple years in order to make them a viable contender. I mean, that's just facts. And if we're going to, you know, have a pity party amongst the fan base because the Colts aren't basically blowing the rest of the season, then that really kind of defeats the purpose of being a fan, I think, doesn't it? You know, root for the team to do well, and if they don't and you happen to luck out into a draft position, then great. But as far as I'm concerned, rooting for a higher draft pick really is defeating the purpose of a lot of things,

not to mention the fact that if we're all so upset about how Ryan Grigson drafts, what would make you so positive that he's going to do something with a top 10 draft pick? I mean, you just want the season to go to crap so that we can get a top 10 draft pick and not do much with it? I don't understand that. And to be quite honest with you, any of these draft picks in the, in the middle, I mean, you top five pick, you get a great pick, pretty good chance of it. You have an ops. Obviously you have a fantastic chance to get a top five or a great pick with a

top five pick. But after that, it kind of goes in little sections of 10. I mean, the next 10 are all going to all, all should be about equal. The 10 after that should all be real similar and fairly equal. So the Colts aren't missing much if they're in the middle of the pack. So instead of wasting our time talking about where they're going to draft, let's start focusing on where the Colts should get better and can get better still this season for the last five weeks and how they can make an impact and how they can possibly win a game or two in the playoffs. We do know that Andrew Luck is as explosive as anybody. He's got the weapons and, you know, all the Colts

really have to do is find a way to put it together. A lot of teams do that late in the season. They'll put three or four wins together and they'll start playing better than they've played all season, and they're a heck of a tough out when it comes playoff time. So a lot of things can happen. The more positive thoughts that we have and that we just allow this season to play out and see where it goes, the better. So thank you for joining me here on this Monday at Locked on Colts. As always, please subscribe to the podcast.

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You are Locked on Colts, your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.