Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS -11/3- Three Keys To Indianapolis Colts Week 9 Victory

Episode Date: November 3, 2016

The #IndianapolisColts have struggled to excel in several key areas throughout this season, yet, they'll absolutely need to capitalize on every #Packers mistake and have their best game of the season to pull out a win. What are the three biggest keys to a Colts victory in Week 9? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Minimum purchase required, U.S. only. No, I'm not for sale. You are lockeded On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back to Locked On Colts, ladies and gentlemen. I'm your host, Matt Namely. And thank you for joining me for our show on Thursday, November 3rd right here on Locked On Colts and today we're going to do similar to what we've been doing the past several weeks.

Going to go through some of the keys to a victory for the Colts this Sunday in Lambeau. They get ready to finish up their first half of the season. I mean they already have technically but this bye week really sets the Colts somewhere real close to the middle. It's real nice. It's actually a pretty good spot for the Colts. Allows them to get some healthy bodies with as many linemen and defensive guys that we have nicked up and bruised up. So it's going to be a necessary time for the Colts to take this bi-week. And Locked On Colts is brought to you in part by SeatGeek. Make sure you guys download the free SeatGeek app on your phones, and I'll tell you guys how to save some money on your first SeatGeek purchase a little bit later in the show.

But first, let's go through the injury report for this week at this point, at least as of yesterday on Wednesday. Mike Adams did not practice because of his groin injury that he suffered fairly early in the game. If I'm not mistaken, he came back in the game. At least I thought that he did. So I'm sure it wasn't, you know, maybe the presence of the game, you know, allowed him to, you're warm.

Sometimes you don't really recognize the injury until you've had time to cool down. But it looks like he's struggling at the moment because he didn't practice. Dwayne Allen, though, and Henry Anderson, they were limited. Vontae, Denzel, Good, Frank Gore, T.Y. Hilton, Kendall Langford, Robert Mathis, Jack Muhor, and Joe Reitz, none of them practiced at all. But Kurt Majit was limited, so was Chester Rogers. I'm glad that Chester Rogers at least was on the field today. Colts are going to be using him in the return game,

so I think they're trying to push the knowledge onto him as quickly as they can to kind of get him all settled in in that role, especially with Bray out. You know, they need a guy back there that they can trust, and he's got to be the guy they can trust. Like I said, Ferguson, he dropped the ball literally in his attempt. And with T.Y. Hilton, you know, battling his hamstring issue, the Colts need somebody back there that's trustworthy that can handle the ball and at least catch the fair catch. I mean, you know, and be smart about it too,

because on one of his catches in week seven, he caught it all the way at the goal line. So that's not something that you want to see from your guy back there returning punts. So, and another reason I'm glad that he's back is because, believe it or not, I actually think that Rodgers adds a little more to this receiving core than I think he's probably given credit. You know, Moncrief's a big guy in there that the Colts need to open up

in certain ways, open up the secondary. And obviously, T.Y. is huge this year and has been fantastic um with doyle in there they really need that other guy to that can both run crisp routes and stretch the defense and i think chester rogers is that guy i really do i'm pleasantly surprised with him i'm excited to see what he can offer and they just need another guy in there that can do that stuff. I am, and I've told you this before, but in no way, shape or form am I sold on street at all. I'm not a fan of his. I think that if they're going to have another guy up on the roster, that it needs to be one of the guys from the practice squad, maybe Smith or somebody, but I'm not a big fan of street. I don't think he offers much, nothing be one of the guys from the practice squad, maybe Smith or somebody. But I'm not a big fan of Street.

I don't think he offers much, nothing that some of the other guys can't offer as well. I think the only thing that he gives them otherwise is experience at the position in an actual NFL game. Well, let's move on. The keys this week to the Colts beating the Green Bay Packers. It sounds like a long shot, but you know what? I'm not going to sit here and patty cake about the past and pout about games in the rear view. Yes, I don't think that the Colts are going to be touching the 500 mark

necessarily at this point, but a lot of things are changing with other teams too, so you have to take that into account. Granted, the Colts have, you know, the best two teams they've played, they are the only two teams that have really beaten them by more than a few points. But both of those games they were in, and I was talking today, you know, I get asked several times a day, so are the Colts going to, you know, pull through and do something with this? You know, and my only answer is I have no idea idea and the main reason I have no idea is because all of their games for the most part have been so close and even the Denver and the Kansas City games that were more than one score were well within reach through 90 percent of the game

I mean if not more than that mean, think about that touchdown pass to Moncrief that was not a touchdown pass because of the penalty. That happens inside of the two minute warning. The Colts have an opportunity for an onside kick and an opportunity to tie the game up, possibly if they had gotten the two point conversion on the previous one. I mean, so what's the either some of these teams that are naturally better than the Colts are playing down to the competition or the Colts are doing something right to keep these other teams from stretching their leads? Whether that's, you know, if you want to put all of that on Andrew Luck, that's, you know, I'm not probably going to argue with you very much there. But the Colts are doing something to keep teams close throughout the duration of the game, to keep themselves within striking distance.

And I think if this team wasn't necessarily – I don't think this team's a top half of the league talent, but I think they're talented enough to do some things in certain situations. And I think they're talented enough to play with just about anybody. And they've also got the talent to make big plays. So it's just I don't really understand how they're doing it, but they are keeping all their games close for the most part. And like I said, even the ones that are more than a score or more than three- and point wins are not, they did not, the Denver Broncos did not play a good game against the Colts for the most part.

The Kansas City Chiefs, regardless of what it may have looked like on the game, the Kansas City Chiefs did not play a good game. They had a few big plays, and that's about it. The Colts got, you know, three sacks in that game and actually had some pressure on the quarterback for a good majority of that game, believe it or not. There were several hits on the quarterback, both of them, obviously, and they did a good job containing Alex Smith on the ground. So, I mean, the Colts are doing some things. We're awful hard on the Colts, and we should be. We get our feelings hurt when they play like crap or they aren't living up to expectations, even if they're simple expectations. But we have to understand that these are the best of the best playing against the best of the best, and that's the issue.

None of these guys are second-tier college players. All these guys have earned their right to be in the NFL, as far as I'm concerned, for the most part, whether they're on a practice squad or not is kind of irrelevant. But, you know, for the most part, they're playing against guys who are pretty good at football. You know, so sometimes we get a little ahead of ourselves. I do too.

But, you know, that's what this is all about is honest reaction and realistic emotion for the most part on our part as fans and as analysts. So, I mean, I think a lot of us here think that we can analyze the game pretty well. You may know better than you guys. You guys are just as well and understand that the Colts need to be successful in certain positions and certain situations throughout a game. So, you know, this isn't rocket science or anything like that, but, you know, playing the game is a different story than analyzing it. There's no doubt about that.

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I spent a little too much time dwelling on last week, but we're going to move ahead. So obviously Aaron Rodgers, he's got plenty of weapons. They have done a lot of shifting around on their backfield. We've spoken about that. And it's just going to be a different look. And here's the thing about this this isn't exactly a bad thing for the Packers to be having Aaron Rodgers checking it down not so much he's not going through deep passes near as much he's not pushing the ball

downfield quite as much because he's just got so many guys rotating in and out and like I said Jordy Nelson is having not one of his best years. A couple other guys aren't really playing top ball for him. But here's the thing against the Colts. The first week of the season against Matthew Stafford, I don't remember what the air yards were for Matt Stafford, but it was something like 50 air yards for the entire game. Almost 80% of his passes were either within a couple yards of the line of scrimmage or behind the line of scrimmage for that matter. The Colts were absolutely torched because they had guys who could make plays in

space. Now these guys that are in the backfield now, Gumry and some of them others, those guys are great in space. So that's the problem for the Colts. They've got to be able to tackle this week. They have to be able to stop any plays from getting a ton of yak after the catch. It's absolutely critical because if they do, then you just, you do nothing but allow the second and third levels of the pass defense to be vulnerable. And the Colts second and third levels are already vulnerable. So we don't have a whole lot of great linebackers that can cover very well. That's an issue. Our secondary in general, we're going to be without Vontae Davis, I think probably this week. That's just my assumption. We're going to have Butler and we're going to have Patrick Robinson. Frankie Williams was brought onto the active roster earlier this week, and they've still got Rashawn Melvin. So if it's me, I'm putting Melvin and Robinson on the outside,

and I'm using Butler in the slot because Butler is just awful on the edge, on the outside. He's just not a good left or right corner. He is definitely a nickel guy and that's his spot. Additionally, the Colts, it's a weekly thing. The Colts have to get better at covering the running backs and the tight ends. And this is something that I'll speak to here in just a few minutes, but they absolutely have to limit yards after catch. I mean, I want to say around 50 to 60 yards after catch total for the game, because if they can't do that, then they're going to get torched. Like I said, Aaron Rodgers can go downfield in the blink of an eye. You know, we've seen him do it several times in the past, so it's not something that is going to become, you know, it's going to be a shock to anybody that he goes

downfield. And you know what else? It wouldn't surprise any of us if Jordy Nelson had his breakout game of the year against this pass defense. It's one of the worst in the league. In fact, it's 31st in the league, second to last overall, at least in Football Outsiders DVOA. So they're not good situationally, and they're not good in coverage for the most part just in general. They make gaffes like they did with both the touchdown passes last week.

One pass was covered by Varley, and the other touchdown pass was a bad read and bad movement from Mike Adams. He wasn't there to cover over the top, and he was supposed to be. So rarely do we see safeties being the issue for the Colts here, other than TJ Green as far as in coverage. But they've got, you know, there's just so many different avenues. This Colts team has to be phenomenal in this week. It'd be hard to limit it to three, but we're going to do that for time's sake.

So the Colts absolutely have to be able to tackle. They can't have any missed tackles this week. There's going to be a couple. But for the sake of argument, we're saying no missed tackles this week. They can't have any obvious missed tackles because that always leads to huge gains by them. And if one guy misses a tackle, it seems like a domino effect. Another guy is going to miss. You get those guys a couple good strides upfield, and they can be gone.

Any of them can break it. So first, no missed tackles this week. Colts can't afford it, especially in Lambeau. It's impossible to play up there. Second key to Colts' victory this week is going to be we're not going with the winning the battle. We are saying no turnovers this week, none, not a single one, because the Colts can't afford to have any. It doesn't matter if they win the turnover battle. If they have any turnovers whatsoever, they're going to lose.

It's just the way that they're playing so far. They can't afford any mistakes in that regard. No fumbled snaps. No interceptions. No fumbles downfield. No muffed punts. No none of that crap. They can't have any turnovers this weekend. I mean, the Colts aren't quite where, you know, the Packers are as far as in turnover differential, but they're very close. I mean, they're just right next to each other. The Colts are negative one on the season for turnovers. Packers are negative two. Colts can't have anything this year.

It puts them already in the bottom half of the league with being under even, and they can't afford any. They have to be extremely careful and cautious with the ball. Andrew Luck has to just go out there and play his game. So if it ends up one happening as, you know, what do you want to call it, like a makeshift punt, so to speak, you know, where he goes downfield deep and happens to be inside of the other Green Bay's red zone or something like that, you can live with that,

especially if it's on third and long or something of the short of the sort so um that's not going to be the issue but still we're sticking with the zero turnover thing they've got to do it and you know what they it's just something that they've struggled with in the past and when it rains it seems like it pours you know there's not just one interception there's a fumbled snap like last week, or there's a fumble inside the five-yard line going in for the score. Just things like that. Can't have those. Absolutely not. Colts will lose if they do.

No doubt about it. Colts already have enough going against them this week. If they have any turnovers, Colts can't win. No turnovers, Colts have a shot. They've already proved that they can stick with anybody in the league, like I've already talked to you guys about at the top of the show, but they absolutely cannot survive with turnovers. And we're going to go with the third one here. They have to get three sacks. We need three sacks every week from this team, three sacks from this defense. They've got to find a way to keep getting the pass rush. Now, since Ayers has been in there and some other guys have been getting a heavier,

heavier rotational playing time, they've been a little more effective at hitting the quarterback. They've got to hit him. They've got to sack him and wouldn't hurt to cause a fumble on one of those or so. Coles absolutely have to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. He's so good out of the pocket. I mean, he is just, you see passes and everybody does. You see his passes sometimes and you think he's the only guy who can make that throw off his back foot, falling away.

I mean, it's like the fadeaway jumper from 30 feet out in the NBA. I mean, he's the only guy with very few exceptions that can make a throw that way. But he does it all the time. The Colts can't afford to be chasing him around getting pressure. They have to hit him in the pocket. The Colts have to get past that. You know, they've got to find their pass rush. Whether that means sending Eric Walden more,

because Eric Walden seems to be the guy who's getting the most pressure, or, you know, using smart combinations. You know, last week they did some really good things. They used Patrick Robinson a couple of times over there and they sent Eric Walden outside trying to get the tackle to go with him on the edge. They crashed down with some of their D linemen and pull the guard inside and they send Patrick Robinson and he gets a hit on the edge. They crash down with some of their D linemen and pull the guard inside, and they send Patrick Robinson, and he gets a hit on the quarterback. Things like that are really smart. They have to do it on the weak side of the field or the strong, you know, depending on where the tight end's at. But off this particular situation was the strong right with the two receivers to the left-hand side, and they really have to pull some stuff like that. I mean, Monachino has got to earn his money

because at the moment, throughout this season, he's certainly not. He's supposed to be a linebacker guy. He's proved that going with old-school linebackers is not the answer. So the Colts have to figure out intelligent, unique ways for this defense to get pressure on the quarterback. Now, whether they can do that or not is a different story. The Packers' offensive line is pretty good. They definitely have the ability to be really good.

And the Colts have to out-muscle, out-tough, and everything that offensive line. It's really going to cost the Colts putting all their effort into it, 110%, or they're in trouble. You know, if you sit back there and you let Rodgers pick you apart on anything more than a three-step drop, then it's going to be, you know, it's going to be lights out because a lot of the stuff that they're running right now is quick pass drops. So they may sit back a bit early in the game and see kind of what the Packers are wanting to do, whether they're going to go downfield or whether they're going to continue to do the dump stuff, dumping the ball off or not. But the Colts are terrible against the tight ends and terrible against running backs. And when you've got wide receivers playing running back, especially in the passing game, that can be bad too. The Colts at this time are 32nd in the league

against tight ends. Dead last, giving up 84 and a half yards per game receiving against tight ends. They're 31st in the league against running back. They're giving it up 51.1 yards per game to opposing running backs, and a lot of that is probably all yak because a lot of that stuff is quick dunk passes out of the backfield, nothing more than a few yards downfield. I can't think of any passes that have been more than 10 to 15 yards downfield to any running back this year against the Colts. It's all stuff that they can get in space and just destroy our tackling. So that's what I've got for the Colts. Like I said, there's several more,

and the Colts absolutely need to have the best game of the year or they're going to get blown out. This isn't a team with Aaron Rodgers that you can hope to hang around on. Their recent games prove that they're not the team that we've seen in years past. They're definitely not the team that the Colts lucked out against in 2012, but they are a team with Aaron Rodgers under center. That in itself is no different than Andrew Luck when he's got a team that's playing well. Andrew Luck can absolutely carve you up and put a two to three score lead on you in no time. Aaron Rodgers can do the same thing and we've all seen it happen to other teams.

We've seen plenty of less than great quarterbacks do it to us. So we know Aaron Rodgers is going to be able to do it. So this is definitely the key, the three keys that I have, the three most important keys to the game or it'll be detrimental to the Colts. No turnovers, three plus sacks, and limited yak to their receivers. I mean, if you want to throw a couple more in there, I mean, think about it. They're simple. It's not hard. This isn't rocket science either.

Get a couple turnovers. Don't allow Andrew Luck to get sacked five, six times. I mean, it's just all simple stuff. There are so many keys to this game. It's just pathetic. And there will be that many. There's 10 to every single game for the Colts simple stuff. There are so many keys to this game, it's just pathetic, and there will be that many. There's 10 to every single game for the Colts going forward because they have so many areas that they really need to improve on.

So dropping short of making this an hour-long show, those are the three that I see to be the most important, three of the things that the Colts struggle at the most, and they really need to pull it all together in order for them to get themselves a win this week. And if they win this week, man,

that's a huge, that is a humongous win going into the buy. They really should have won last week. If they had any sort of a game whatsoever and they didn't, and they played Packers this week, they really need this to go into the buy, try to get a couple of guys healthy and come out of the bye swinging. So we'll see what they can do, folks.

But for the time being, this is going to wrap up our Thursday show here on Locked on Colts. Thank you all for listening. I appreciate it. Listen every day. Download the show. I always post it on Twitter. I always post it on Facebook.

And you guys can catch me or the show at Locked on Colts or M. Dainley NFL. If you guys have any questions or you guys want to go back and forth or anything like that, you can email me at Locked on Colts pod at gmail.com. Every day, pretty accessible guy. So really love the interactions you guys have continually been a part of. Again, I appreciate you guys sharing the show. Tell your friends. You guys all have Colts fans for friends. Tell them about the show. Tell them why you like it. And we'll keep pumping them out every single day right here for you. The only place you can get Colts content five days a week, and we'll keep bringing it to you every single day.

So thank you for joining me here on your Thursday, and we'll be back on Friday. We'll be having our Locked On crossover here with the Locked On Packers host, Bill Huber. So we will bring that to you on Friday, and I hope you all jump in for that and give it a listen. Until then, though, I will talk to you all Friday right here on Locked On Colts. You are Locked On Colts, your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked on Colts. You are Locked on Colts. Your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Your team. Every day.