Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS -12/21- Breaking Down the Indianapolis Colts Vs Oakland Raiders W/Ted Nguyen (@RaidersAnalysis)

Episode Date: December 21, 2016

Once again we find the #Colts in a situation where their offense has the opportunity to flourish against an inconsistent defense, however, the #Raiders have an equally lopsided advantage over the Colts defense and the playmakers to make this matchup a barn burner Saturday. Ted Nguyen (@RaidersAnalysis) joins Matt to break down the strengths and weaknesses of this Oakland squad. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

That's for my crazy day. My packed commute. All those unread emails in my inbox. But I'm getting stronger, faster, and pushing myself further every day. I don't care if I'm not like everyone else. This punching bag is the best way to end my day. Fearless is knowing yoga isn't your style. That's the power of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Federal Employee Program.

Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash getmore. No, I'm not for sale. You are lockeded On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back to Locked On Colts, ladies and gentlemen. I'm your host, Matt Dainley. I want to thank you guys all for your feedback, for your listening, and all the reviews and the ratings that you guys have been giving the podcast on iTunes.

Everything is great. Very much appreciated. And as I've spoken to you guys before, we've got a big matchup this week, Week 16 this Saturday against the Oakland Raiders. And the Indianapolis Colts really have their hands full with this one. They've got a dynamic offense that they're going to have to go up against, and they've got one of the most impressive pass-rushing teams that they're going to really face throughout the duration of this season, obviously. With only two weeks to go, this is definitely their biggest hurdle. Today we have

in Ted Wynn. Ted, how you doing, man? I'm good, Matt. How are you? Great. You guys can catch him on Twitter at Raiders Analysis. And I brought in Ted here. He is one of the best X's and O's guys. And who better to bring in when you're getting ready to go against the Oakland Raiders and Carr and all these guys. So first, let's just jump right into it here. There is going to be a major mashup here of two high-quality offenses.

Indianapolis Colts obviously have shown over the past several weeks and over the past several years really with Andrew Luck under center that they have the ability to be as dangerous as any team in the NFL. When we go up against the Raiders here this Saturday, what is this defense going to do to shut down Andrew Luck in this offense? I think the biggest thing we have to do is we have to be able to keep two safeties back. Our corners struggle against smaller, quicker receivers uh we saw that with brandon

cooks and uh you know the first game of season and we saw that throughout the season it was a common thing we have bigger corners that are more physical uh i think amerson is six two sean smith is six three so they struggle with the smaller receivers so i just don't trust them on an island by themselves and we need to be able to keep two safeties back there to help them on deep ball and uh you know if the colts are able to run the ball and force that eighth man in the box that's when we're gonna have some trouble because we're gonna have to trust amerson and smith on an island against these small quick guys and they just have proven throughout the season they can't handle that type of speed. Is that something that you'd assume that they'll do, try to load it up on Frank Gore?

I don't think so. I'm not too well-versed on the Colts' run game, but based on what I've seen, they don't look like one of the top rushing units. I know they do have an effective run game. So I would assume that the Raiders are going to come in trying to keep two safeties back and trying to trust the front seven to stop the run game. And the run defense has gotten a lot better since the beginning of season. You guys have Khalil Mack, Jahad Ward, Malcolm Smith, Bruce Irvin.

You've got an impressive front seven there. And not only that, but your depth at those positions is is something that uh should be talked about as well uh now deep there you have reggie nelson and carl joseph how are they going to be able to i mean if you're going to keep those two guys back how are they going to rotate in in the secondary there to try to stop ty hilton uh so actually uh? Actually, Carl Joseph might be out for the game. He's been out the last two games. Nate Allen has been playing in his spot. He's actually been playing pretty well.

As far as rotating, I think that they're going to play a lot of quarters coverage, which means that the two safeties are going to be around a hashish. The corners are able to play a trail technique and not worry too much about getting burned deep because they know they have a safety right on a hash.

They're going to play physical and just try to defend anything that's short and intermediate and try to at least get luck to loft the ball deep so that the safeties have time to get over the top and help. He's guilty of doing that too. He has an elite arm, but it just seems like you very rarely see it. You know, he'll do that stuff from opposite hash to boundary, and it just scares me to death. You know, I always think it's going to get pick-sixed,

and it just is one of those things that I just wish he would just turn it loose. You know, from that far away, you're not going to hurt anybody's hands putting some stink on it loose you know from that far away you're not gonna hurt anybody's hands putting uh some stink on it you know um that you know speaking of andrew luck obviously it's been widely talked about throughout the season both nationally uh locally especially here and i'm sure that it's being talked about there in california this offensive line for the Colts has, needless to say, struggled a little bit to find some consistency and to give Andrew Luck some time to throw. He's had his moments, and that offensive line has had their moments. But he's been under pressure so much. In fact, last game he was under pressure.

I'm sorry. Last game he had the best underure performance of any quarterback on Sunday. Where does this front seven find the holes to attack Andrew Luck in this offensive line? I don't think they blitz as much as regular teams, and they're really just going to depend on Khalil Mack and Bruce Irving winning those matchups against those tackles. So, you know, they're not a big blitzing team, like I said,

and they do a few stunts here and there, but they don't get real fancy. They just depend on Irving and Mack to try to beat tackles. And, you know, so far we've played some teams with less than stellar tackles. And Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin, they've been winning those matchups. And tell me about your linebackers there with Riley Irvin and Smith. How are they going to be for this? I mean, because the Colts have, as far as I'm concerned, one of the better catching and all-around utility tight ends in the league with Jack Doyle.

They're going to be able – somebody, one of those guys is going to have to cover him. Who do you think is going to draw that? I think it's going to be Malcolm Smith. We aren't great against tight ends, though. We have been playing better. Perry Riley is more of a run-stuffing linebacker, and he's one of the reasons why our run defense has been so much better. But Matt Smith is a guy we usually match up on the other team's best tight ends,

and he's not great. I would say he's average, maybe a little above average, but against elite tight ends, he's going to struggle a little bit. But like I said, we're going to try to keep two safeties back there, and hopefully they could help on the outside and in the seam. It's going to be a tough job. But again, if underneath coverage is able to make Luck throw the ball a little higher, the safeties have a better chance of helping out.

Sounds like the tight end and possibly the running backs out of the backfield may be the way to go. Do they do a good job covering running backs? I think so. It might just be because tight ends have been killing us, so they don't have to go to running backs. I don't have the stats for that right now, but I don't have it i don't remember a running back really hurting us too bad in the passing game so they do well laterally what what's what's their what's their front seven uh scheme they're just their base stuff and how much how often are they running uh their sub packages i mean just off the top of your head we're a base 3-4 team so if you're in any sort of eye formation to tight end formation that kind of thing we're going to be in a 3-4.

Our nickel is the 4-2-5. So we look a lot more like a traditional team when teams decide to spread out or flex out a slot receiver. So it just really depends on your team's style of play. I would think against the Colts, we're going to stay kind of in a 4-2-5 who do you have in there that can guard uh ty hilton is when he gets into the slot who's your third corner that's that would be tj carrie so dj hayden our um old he's played pretty well hadn't he lately yeah hayden's play hayden's played he played okay i mean he made a bunch of splash plays but he also has a bunch of boneheaded plays uh he's actually out for the season.

He tore his hand. No, I meant Carey. Yeah, Carey's been playing really well. He's been playing well, but he is a technician, very smart corner. So he's going to struggle with elite speed, and Hilton has elite speed, so he's going to have to rely a lot on his technique.

But anytime you're limited athletically, it just takes one play and you get burned. So that's a bit of a scary matchup. So where's the weakness on this defense in your opinion? It's going to be the deep ball. The deep ball, huh? That's why they have to keep those two back. Yeah. Well, hopefully we can get a couple guys deep on there now the Colts you know they they this past week they didn't have Moncrief

they had to sub in Chester Rogers who's their other wide receiver uh he's a a serviceable guy he's not you know a playmaker so to speak or anything like that but he's definitely quality depth uh if they get Moncrief back I think that would open up a lot of things for them, allowing people to get deep. But they haven't seemed to use Moncrief in a deep role at all. It's been almost exclusively T.Y. Hilton. It just seems that way off the top of my head. Like I said, I don't have any solid numbers on that or anything like that.

It just seems like every single time they're using T.Y. to split and go to take the top off. Very seldom are they using anybody else. They're trying to use Dorsett a little bit more, but Dorsett's having a lot of catching problems and stuff like that. So this will be an interesting matchup. This defense for the Raiders is giving up 6.6 yards per play, which is pretty low in the league right now.

They seem to be giving up a lot of chunk yardage. Is there any way they can stop that? Aside from the two safety deep, are they allowing a lot of yards after catch, does it seem to you? Or is it just the fact that they're just uh you know maybe at times they're just not covering very well or they're just uh going out of their uh they're just losing their guys uh so the two biggest thing i see is when we do have we do give a big play is either because uh a team's running the ball well and they hit the cut back we usually defend the

front side pretty well but we're a little undisciplined on the backside of runs. So when a running back cuts back, it almost seems like he at least gets a 10, 15-yard gain. And getting beat deep, we're not a bad tackling team. It's just, you know, we have big corners, and if the quarterback has time and the receiver can run, those big corners just can't hang with those guys that are running four threes four fours

so it's gonna you know i said this before the game it's khalil mac and bruce ervin absolutely have to dominate this game in order for us to slow down that offense if we can't dominate the game then it's going to be a shootout kind of like what happened in new orleans so like you said there's going to be a lot of seam, uh, uh, luck looking at the seam and a lot of that, that honey hole, huh? Yeah. Yeah. So, uh, again, sitting here talking with Ted, when you guys can catch him on, uh, inside the pylon, he's been doing great work with those guys. A lot of breaking down schemes, a lot of, a lot of, uh, X and O's work and stuff like that. Now let's get to the offense here real quick, Ted. What is the deal with Amari Cooper over the past few weeks?

Well, against the Chiefs, the entire offense was out of sync and nobody had a good day. But as far as the Raiders' philosophy, they really believe that they have two number one receivers. And if you're going to put your best corner on Amari, then they're going to go to Crabtree. If you're going to double Amari, then they're going to go to Crabtree and go to, you know, Walford, Rivera. They're not going to force the ball to them too much.

I know fans don't like that, but the offense has been good. It would be one thing if the offense was getting shut down and Amari Cooper wasn't getting enough targets, but the offense has been good. They've been moving the ball. Even against the Chargers, they were moving the ball perfectly fine. They just couldn't execute in the red zone. They believe they have two number one receivers,

and they're not going to force the ball to either one. If Crabtree gets double and more attention, then Amari's going to have a big day. Isn't Amari a little bit more of a guy who's a little more susceptible to being doubled, though, as opposed to Crabtree? Crabtree's a little easier to cover. Do you think that's accurate? Yeah, big time. Teams are definitely a lot more scared of Amari Cooper than they are of Crabtree.

I get that. definitely a lot more scared of Amari Cooper than they are of Crabtree. I get that, but it seems to me that Carr's – he's almost – not security blanket, that would fall in line more with the tight ends and whatnot. But, I mean, when Carr needs a big play, he goes to Crabtree. I mean, you know, he's got this offensive line. I mean, what a fantastic offensive line. You know, back in the day I wanted the Colts to draft Gabe Jackson. I wanted them to sign Kalishio Oselemi. Man, that is throwing me down.

This past season or this past offseason in free agency. And they didn't get either one of them, of course. And they had an opportunity to get Jackson. But this offensive line is something else. Is this, I mean, it's not only that, but it's helping in the running game with Latavius Murray. And they're a little more apt to use Murray. They're not trying to be world beaters through the air either. And they don't really have to be because of those two things involved. What is the approach of this offense, wide receivers save for them? And we'll talk offensive line and their running back and Derek Carr. Where are these guys going with this team, and what's their approach each week?

I think after the Chiefs game, they're realizing that they have to take advantage of this offensive line and they have to take advantage of this offensive line and they have to run the ball more. They tried to go into Kansas City and pass the ball a ton. I think they had over 40 pass attempts in 12-degree weather, which isn't a winning recipe for any quarterback. So I think they're starting to realize that they have to really commit to this running game. They have the guys to do it up front.

And I think going forward, we're going to see a lot more runs than, you know, those runs and passes are going to bounce out a little bit more. He seems to be getting, Latavius Murray seems to be getting a lot of chunk yardage in that as well. And maybe it was just because it was late in the game this past weekend that he was getting it, you know, late in late in the half late in the game and stuff like that. But he really, I mean, he's really busted out, uh, as far as I'm concerned. And like I said, with those guys up front, they can protect and they can get to the second level. And, and it's

currently showing what's, what's Murray's, uh, stats on the year off top of your head. Do you have any idea? Uh, I don't know. i think he's averaging four yard i know he's averaging four yards to carry his yardage total isn't great actually he's splitting carries with two other backs uh deandre washington and jalen richard who actually made the pro bowl as a punt returner um but so he's splitting cares three backs and uh in beginning of the season we were passing the ball a lot more than we were running the ball until we got to the red zone but I believe he has over he might have 12 13 touchdowns so even though he I think he's below 600 700 yards but he has 12 touchdowns so that's pretty impressive definitely making making his runs count, that's for sure.

Now the Colts imply a lot more of a cover man scheme and a press at times. But they've moved Darius Butler to the safety role here and there. And he seems to be flourishing in that. He's a little bit more of a ball hawk. He was as a corner, but he's lost his step. You know, they're not using him much in the nickel role as much, but they're using him more back as a safety, especially with Clayton Gethers out of the game.

Now the Colts really don't have an enforcer back there. I mean, they do with Mike Adams, but he's 35 years old. You can only enforce so much at that age, you know. But the Colts really have a struggling linebacking core. But they've played well as of late. I'll give them that. I mean, and especially in the absence of DeQuell Jackson. What's the approach do you think that the Raiders will take

against this Indianapolis Colts defense, who's known to be poorest, to say the least, and they, too, are giving up some big plays, and especially in the running game. Yeah, I think they're going to come out and they're going to try to run the ball. Like I said, I think they really want to start establishing a run game. Against the Chiefs, the Chiefs played a lot of press coverage against us. And the Raiders actually struggled bad against bump and run last year uh which is one of the reasons why the offense and derrick carr declined so much towards

end of year this year they've been much better against bump and run coverage but against the chiefs uh you know they just kind of mixed and matched their their man coverage and kind of confused us a bit um and against the chargers Chargers play a lot of bump and run too, and I noticed that they actually put in a bunch of rub routes and pick plays and that kind of thing. So I expect to see a lot of rub concepts to go along with a heavy run game. Is there another reason that you think maybe they've gotten a little bit better against that press man mentality?

I think it has to do with Dare Card's trusting his receivers. You know, sometimes when they might look like they're covered, but you have to be able to throw them open. Last year, Card did not use the back shoulder throw enough. This year, he's gotten much, much better at throwing the back shoulder fade. And if you watched the Chargers-Raiders game, he made a hell of a back shoulder throw to Crabtree for the touchdown right before the half.

Now you've also got some other wide receivers. It's not just Crabtree and Cooper and the tight ends. Talk to us about some of the other guys you got there. So we have Seth Roberts. He is a starting slot receiver. He is infuriating sometimes just because he's a really good blocker really really good blocker uh he gets open but he drops 20 of the passes thrown to him that's pff stat 20 of his uh targets are dropped but then at the end of games, he makes these clutch catches,

and everybody forgets about it. So it's a double-edged sword with Seth Roberts for sure. And what about Holmes? Holmes, he doesn't get much playing time, but he knows the system. He knows the system. He's a really, really good jump ball guy. He's made some really big catches, but he's not a real big part of the offense unless somebody's hurt or somebody needs a break or something like that. a couple years, whatever. What's the biggest thing that you've noticed with this team, and even just as recent as last year, to get them to where they're now already clinching a playoff berth, and to where they're one of the more feared teams in the AFC, not to mention in one of the best divisions in football right now? They just have a very stable mentality. They're never too

hyped, and they're never too low low and that helps them a lot with you know all these fourth quarter games they play they're pretty even keeled guys um and they're always focused on the next play you know it's kind of cliche but you can kind of see it from this team they're not overlooking things they're not buying into their hype they're always very level-headed and i think a lot of that has to do with Jack Del Rio and how he's you know his personality's kind of taken over the team it seems like something's definitely paying off and this team is like I said one of the more feared teams in the AFC and you know Indianapolis Colts definitely have an opportunity with their explosive

offense against this defense but this defense for the Colts like have an opportunity with their explosive offense against this defense. But this defense for the Colts, like I said, it's been pretty bad the majority of this year. But this past game or two, they've shown some viability to be able to stop some things that we haven't seen them do much of the year. What is your first thoughts on who takes this one? I'm a little biased, but I think the Raiders take it by a field goal. I think it's going to be a back-and-forth game. Score will probably be in the high 20s to 30s, and the Raiders get it by a last-second field goal. You got them both up there, huh?

I'm going to go ahead, and and i'm gonna reserve my pick until later as far as score wise because i need to dig in a little bit more on these guys and and get a good feel for this defense more or less because i'm going on what i've heard not so much of what i've seen and i need to watch a little more film before i give my uh score pick at the end of the year or at the end of the week but i i tell you what, I'm going to go with what's working for me this year. It seems to, especially in big games. So I'm going with the Raiders, and I'm going to say I'll give a bit of an area here. I'm going to say it's within a touchdown.

But I just have to pick against the Colts because they keep winning when I do. Okay. Here's another stat for you. I'm going to be at the game on Saturday. Me and my brother attend games. Even when the Raiders were terrible, our record is 12-1.

With you guys there? With us there. Even when we're terrible. We've upset people when we were in attendance so we're 12 and 1 so we'll see what what happens what's the weather like there um i believe it's gonna rain on sunday let me check if it's not saturday um no no snow coming over there to where it may keep you guys away from the game or anything like that? So it actually is going to rain on Friday, and it's going to be clear on Saturday and Sunday. Ah, dang.

No chances for snow in Oakland this weekend, guys. So it looks like Ted and his fam is going to go, and we'll just have to go on my superstitions and hope that they work here. Ted, thank you for jumping in here with me. It was great to hear. Always good to have you on again. You guys can catch Ted on Twitter at Raiders Analysis.

Check out his work at Inside the Pylon. What else are you doing right now, Ted? I also have my own website at www.raidersanalysis.com. I break down the offensive performance, so you can check that out. Obviously, it'll be against the Colts next week. And I also write for FanRag Sports, same as you. That's true. And I'll tell you what, those videos are fantastic too.

He really does them up really nice. I do videos, but I do the little short vids. I don't do them like Ted does. Ted does all kinds of crazy things with them and really breaks them down real nice for you. Fantastic YouTube channel. You guys need to check that out. Ted, thank you again for joining me here. And thank you Colts fans for dropping in with us here at Locked On Colts. It's going to be a crazy week. The Colts got to win these next two games. They're dependent on some help from the other two AFC teams, the Texans and the Titans. And we're just going to

have to see what happens. The Colts, in all likelihood, A, don't deserve necessarily because of their season that they've had to be in the playoffs, but they still got that chance. And we're going to have to root them on and hope that they can squeak their way in there because they are dangerous. They're dangerous this week, next week, and they're dangerous if they make it to the playoffs. No consistency, but dangerous counts for something once you get to the postseason. So thank you again, Ted. Thank you again, Locked On Colts fans.

Thank you guys for everything. Again, check us again, Locked On Colts fans. Thank you guys for everything. Again, check us out at Locked On Colts on Twitter, the Facebook page. You can get me at LockedOnColtsPod at gmail.com anytime. Thank you guys, and I will talk to you all on Thursday right here on Locked On Colts. You are Locked On Colts, your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Colts, your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts,

part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.