Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS -12/29- Indianapolis Colts Offense Should Still Be Mismatch For Jaguars Defense

Episode Date: December 29, 2016

On the first of two Thursday shows, we look at how the #Jaguars defense matches up against the #Colts receiving corps, the Colts updated PFF grades and an update on the Colts injury report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I'm your host, Matt Dainley, and thank you for joining me here. It's our first of two Thursday shows. Wasn't able to put one together on Wednesday with scheduling and so on and so forth, but got an early Thursday show here for you, and then later I'm going to end up putting one out sometime in the afternoon, so then you guys will have two on Thursday as opposed to a Wednesday and a Thursday show. But thank you again for joining me here. And this is the week 17 against the Jaguars, as you guys well know. And the last interesting little stat's been passed around the past couple days. Two of the four Jacksonville victories have come against the Colts in the past two years. The earlier one this year and the one at the end of the season last year where they hung a 50 burger on the Colts and that was about as ugly for the organization as it gets. There are a couple things

that I wanted to get into today. I wanted to talk to you guys a little bit about the press conference and so on and so forth. Nothing really exciting in there other than, you know know basically Pagano going over his typical spiel for the most part talking about how you know we've got to come back and fight we've got another big big game ahead of us and so on but he does kind of talk about how how well Blake Bortles played in his last game about his 325 yards of passing how he didn't have a turnover, threw and caught a touchdown. But the real deal with the Jags this year is obviously their defense. Their defense is much improved. Apparently they are ranked fourth in the league per Pagano.

I think that that's one of those things where you look at a couple different sites or you look at a couple different ways of figuring that out. And certain, like the NFL site goes typically by yards and such. I choose not to look at something so narrow-minded. I choose to look at something that's a little more complete. If you want to look at, you know, whatever it is, turnover ratio or whether you want to look at yards or yards per game or yards per carry or yards per play or whatever you want to look at. There's a lot of different ways, and it's really hard to throw in an arbitrary number there and just assume that that's what their rank is based on total yards and such.

But as you guys well know by now, I look a lot at football outsiders. I think the way that they do their DVOA and so on is so much more complete. It's a one-number thing, but it takes into account everything, including situational football. And they've got them ranked currently at 13th in the league. And I think that's a pretty good assessment, to be honest with you. They're definitely not in the top five because they have had so many points run up on them. They're not typically – they're not an elite situational team.

They have come alive lately, which has brought them up. And, I mean, they've, you know, steadily risen, you know, game to game to game and so on and so forth. But they're 13th currently, right behind Kansas City and right in front of Tampa Bay. So that's, I mean, that's a good spot, you know, just outside of the top 10. And that's, you know, that's a noteworthy defense, there's no doubt about it. And as we typically do, when we look at the way that they are going to defend our offense, because that's, I mean, honestly, their offense isn't all that much worth talking about. Yeldon's out. They've not, you know, Hearns is probably out.

Marquise Lee has become basically their number one receiver by proxy. Hearns is, or not Hearns, I'm sorry, Allen Robinson is certainly their best option. But, you know, for most of the season, Blake Bortles has really struggled to get him the ball with any catchable passes, you know, for the most part. So let's look at how the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be able to defend the Colts. The Colts have Moncrief on the injury report right now. He is out with a shoulder injury. Just to go through this real quick the rest of the way for you, Rashawn Melvin, the cornerback, he's out with a knee, did not practice. Chris Carter still limited

on Wednesday with a shoulder injury. And Darius Butler is still out with concussion symptoms. So looking at how they're going to defend the Colts, currently against wide receiver number one, this is T.Y. Hilton. They're 23rd in the league. Not good. However, their number two wide receiver, which is going to be, depending upon if Moncrief is back, is probably going to end up being either Dorsett or it's going to be Chester Rogers. They're 14th in the league in that regard.

So that's natural. Other wide receivers, whether that's a slot guy at some point or whether that just happens to be the third wide receiver, they're 26th. So defending the wide receivers is not a quality area for the most part overall for Jacksonville. Now, Jalen Ramsey has shown that he is a fantastic corner, but he's really kind of the only guy, and you know, Luck's not going to shy away from him if Luck plays. I hope he does not play, but Luck isn't going to shy away from Ramsey. He's beatable, but he's definitely coming into his own. He's getting cockier and cockier, and he's finding ways to get himself into plays. He's mixing it up quite a bit and doing a pretty good job of it.

Now, versus tight ends. They're right in the middle of the pack at 14th as well. Against running backs, they're very, very good. So this is something that the Colts are really going to have to mix in a lot. Chudzinski's going to have to scheme those running backs open really well. A lot of motion, how he's going to do with screen passes. The Colts don't run a lot of screens, but Gore and Turbin have both proven themselves to be worthy receivers out of the backfield. Putting both of them in the backfield for some sets might help kind of take some of the simplicity away of them covering those

running backs. However, the mixture that the Colts have of tight ends and running backs in their passing game is probably going to be more beneficial for the Colts have of tight ends and running backs in their passing game is probably going to be more beneficial for the Colts, especially in this matchup. So the Colts definitely have the ability to exploit this offense, whether it be deep, they have some struggling safeties. They've got a couple good linebackers, but overall, I trust Doyle to win in just about every position that he's put in. And you guys know that if you've listened to me at all this year.

But I just think this is a mismatch offensive to defensive for sure, regardless of how they're ranked overall or anything else. Namely because the Colts are one of those teams that are just outside of the top 10 offensively. Last week they were 12th, came into it. I'm a little surprised that they're ranked at 11th because their situational play was not so great last week. They didn't do a lot until they were basically on the ropes, and Oakland began to drop into zone schemes and stuff like that a little bit more often, and then the Colts naturally were able to get the ball down the field. So I'm a little surprised that they moved up. If anything, I figured they might either stay the same or go down,

but this is, you know, comparative to the way the other teams played too. So I mean, just because they didn't have a great game, if everybody else didn't have a great game either, they're going to move up or go down or whatever, accordingly. So the Colts right now, in my opinion, are an absolute mismatch for the Jags, especially offense to defense. Now defense to offense, as far as how the Colts match up with their offense, I just don't see their offense being, you know, they have the ability to do it, but I just don't see their offense being able to make any real play against anybody, really. But our defense has known to be leaky, for uh without melvin in the game i mean melvin's

a fantastic third corner if nothing else um and darius butler's out so the the safety play is going to have to be really good and those uh third fourth and fifth corners on the colts are going to have to be really good daryl morris and those, they're just going to have to step up. They're going to have to play better than they did last week. They played good in the first couple series, didn't do much after that. So the Colts have their work cut out for them really no matter who they play as far as their defense. The Colts in this regard, the Colts really have a pride thing they have to put back into place if the Colts were to lose again against the Jaguars regardless of who's under center that's going to be terrible we already think that there's a quite a possibility that Pagano could be gone

and I think that a loss especially a substantial one to the Jaguars in week 17 could seal his fate. I don't think that, I mean, if Pagano was to lose four games in the AFC South, I don't know if there's a bigger reason to lose your job in Indianapolis. I really don't. And if he doesn't, then there is a whole lot of trust in Mr. Ursae's office for Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson to completely turn this thing around between now and next year. And I don't see how that could be possible. So matchups, that's, I mean, I think this is a mismatch for the Colts, as I've said, and I just don't see a way that Jacksonville should be in this game. Whether they will or not is another story. We know that the Colts are as difficult to predict on game day, that's for sure. So we'll have to see.

I mean, it's all up in the air. We all know that. But on paper, the Colts should win this game pretty handily. Also wanted to run through some of the PFF grades for you guys. Again, I'll go through some of the top ones here. Andrew Luck dropped to third. He's now under Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. He's slightly above, and when I say slightly, I mean a tenth above Aaron Rodgers and only about two and a half points above Drew Brees. Russell Wilson's right there in the mix as well, just under Brees. But, you know, Andrew Luck's got to be better with the ball.

He has to be able to diagnose his pressure situations. And, you know, we all know that Andrew Luck's fantastic. The only problem here is that Andrew's got to find a way to allow himself to live to fight another day. That's his biggest problem, always has been. This year, we haven't seen it very much. We saw it a couple times last week, and quite honestly, it put the Colts in a hole that they could not dig themselves out of. Andrew Luck, if he does play, God, I hope he doesn't play. If he does play, let's hope that he finishes on a strong note and doesn't get hurt. That's the only thing that's really on my mind. I hope that he throws the ball. I'd rather see him get

five intentional grounding calls than get plugged up against a team that has really nothing to lose or gain in the Jaguars. Frank Gore has moved down just slightly. He is 24th overall with a 71 grade, and Frank Gore continues to impress as far as I'm concerned. He's been fantastic. He's come through in the clutch this year. He's gotten his three, four, five yards on first down quite a bit. I bet his first down yardage is somewhere around five to six yards per carry. He's really been pretty amazing as far as I'm concerned. So we get to wide receivers. T.Y. Hilton, he's fifth overall

with an 86.8. T.Y. currently leads the league in yardage and receiving yardage uh although we all i think that you know people are kind of uh remiss to say that it's been uh due to julio jones sitting a few weeks i mean not to say ty's not having a fantastic year because he absolutely is but just remember that when uh it all comes down you know if you want to call it a negative connotation, that's fine. It's not meant to be, but it's the truth. But TY's having a phenomenal year this year, and I look for him to continue to. I think he's really coming into his own. Nice to see that he's not only played at that same level,

but he upped his game post post getting a brand new contract before last season so I think that was fantastic and it's really good he's he's a fantastic player especially for his size he is ultimately Andrew it's it's crazy that we always put these uh comparisons together but Ryan Kelly is Andrew Lux Jeff Saturday and T.Y. Hilton is definitely Andrew Lux, Marvin Harrison. I mean, it's just the way he plays, too. You know, he gets into where he's going to get drilled by a couple guys, and he gets down. That's smart wide receiver play. So it's just funny how we always are going to compare the last regime and the last set of superstars to the current ones. Jack Doyle among tight ends is 15th

overall with a 75.8. Again, could not be more impressed with Jack Doyle this year. I've said it week in and week out, maybe several times a week. I think that Jack Doyle is one of the best tight ends in the league. I think he'll continue to be, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if, you know, next year he improves on this year. And if he can even be close to the impact he's had this year, next year, he doesn't have to beat it. But he's been fantastic. He's a complete tight end.

He blocks. He catches. He runs. After the catch, he does a great job. And he is the ultimate teammate. Plenty of guys have said that in the past, and that's awesome. Anthony Costanzo is 21st among tackles with a 82.4 overall grade. Anthony Costanzo, for all of the chess beating that people have done

about talking mess about him, he's really had a pretty solid year. I mean, you can say just about whatever you want about the guy, but he's done a pretty stinking good job as far as I'm concerned. I just don't think that you can imagine how poor this offensive line would be without him. So I'm impressed with the way that he's continued to come back to work, and he's done a good job. Also, I'm excited to see what LaRaven Clark can do again this week, a guy that I was super surprised to see that he even did anything

in the last couple games. But he's done pretty well. He's definitely done better than I expected him to, and I'm just happy for the guy. I'm happy for the guy. I'm happy for the Colts because it looks like he's done something. He's becoming an actual lineman instead of a guy for people to run around. You know what I mean?

He's done a pretty good job, and you can tell that his technique has improved significantly since the beginning of the season. We get all the way to centers, and Ryan Kelly is 19th overall with an 81.1. Again, as a rookie, Ryan Kelly, fantastic. Happy to see how well he's done this year. Coming in, like I said, he's going to have some bad games and some good games, but he is a vital part of this offensive line moving forward. We can get to cornerbacks,

Darius Butler. He's still 19th with an 82.6 overall. I would not look for him to play this week. I think that his season is done and that's too bad because he's really had a pretty good season. He is a fantastic safety in that role, but he's got to learn that he is not an enforcer by body type. He wants to be that way. It's okay for him to be that way, and he can make some plays that way. He's just going. I don't think he's necessarily a fragile guy, but he gets nicked up a lot. He's too fragile for that kind of a role. Also, Darryl Morris, he's 44th overall with a 77.0.

That's impressive, I think. Darryl Morris has had a pretty good year, too. Some of these depth guys for the Colts in the cornerback roles have played pretty well. Rashawn Melvin at a 73.3 all the way down at 63rd. However, he's done good, too. These two guys are going to come back next year, in my opinion. They're not going to be expensive. They're going to be good enough to come back and be significant depth for this team. Hopefully the Colts can build on that cornerback depth, get a top-level guy out of the draft. I would love to see that because the pass defense this year has been pretty putrid overall. Mike Adams, 13th overall among safeties at 84.9.

Very good year for the old man. Pops has definitely done anything and everything that the Colts could have asked him to do since he's been here. I don't know that he'll be back next year, but I hope that he, if he doesn't, I hope that he kind of retires because he's had a fantastic career. He's really been a big part of the Colts in the secondary. And if he does come back, I hope that he only comes back for another year. He is getting old and I don't want him to get hurt, you know, and the Colts not have a backup plan for that. And TJ Green at the moment is not a backup plan. So Antonio Morrison, 59th overall with a 60.2. Nice to see him rising in the ranks a little bit.

He's definitely improved his play, and I'm happy to see it. Another guy, he's starting to improve, so that's good because, man, I'll tell you what, he looked bleak when it comes into the season. Very loose-headed, just not being able to focus, pull his assignment, and that's a scary situation. So we get to the interior defensive lineman. T.Y. McGill is 40th overall with a 75.2, slowly chopping his way up the list here. He's been fantastic. Not a flashy guy. We've talked about this before, but he is a guy who's going to do his job and he does it every single week.

And I hope he comes back because I think he is a huge building block, regardless of who they draft or who they bring in in free agency to help solidify that front seven. Henry Anderson, 42nd overall with a 75. He and T.Y. are right there pretty much next to each other in the rankings. And he's improved quite a bit this year as well, just from the beginning of the game. I think that it just took him a while to get through some of his injury stuff, but he's definitely improved over the last few weeks. It's nice to see him get in the mix a little bit and really be a part of it. Akeem Ayers again on the edge. Funny that he's right behind an old Colts edge guy,

Dwight Freeney. Dwight's at 55th overall. Akeem Ayers at 56th overall, 73.5. So that's the Colts PFF grades heading into the final week of the NFL season. And it's getting to where we are, and we know that the Colts are not playoff bound. We just are basically waiting either for the hammer to drop or to assume that we can get into draft talk and postseason talk. Now, as the season goes on and we continue, I'm going to probably give you guys a little bit more of NFL news off the first couple minutes of the show each day just to kind of give you guys something else to hear as opposed to just 110% Colts on this. You know, because some of those are some good storylines as well.

And to be quite honest with you without the Colts playing in both the playoffs and then in the offseason we're gonna have to have a little bit more uh chat so we're gonna have to have a little more to talk about so uh that'll be good for you guys that'll be good for me as well and uh I appreciate you guys listening and uh we'll be back uh thursday afternoon like i said with another secondary show uh so thank you guys for being patient with not having something out on wednesday but i will talk to you guys all later today right here on locked on colds you are locked on colds your daily podcast on the indianapolis colds

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