Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS 3/13/19: Early free agency and draft takes with Pro Football Focus' Mike Renner

Episode Date: March 13, 2019

If you know football, you know about PFF.Mike Renner, PFF's lead draft analyst, joins the show dissecting early free agent signings, draft prospects at the Colts' three biggest needs and his impressions on Chris Ballard's team building strategy.Hint: The praise for Ballard is well-deserved, and everyone around the league is taking notice of his strong early returns.What's next for the Colts? Mike gives a good idea of what could be in store for the NFL's turnaround team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, everyone. Welcome to Locked On Colts, part of Locked On Podcast Network. Today's host is Evan Sider. I'm joined by a special guest today, Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus. Mike, how are you doing today? It's a busy time of the year. I'm doing great, and you're right. It is busy. It's been a fun couple of days. It really has. There's millions of dollars flying around now, and I wanted to ask just your initial thoughts right now. There's been pretty much the top of the free agency class has been wiped out. What's your biggest surprises so far out of this group? I'm not sure there are really any big surprises at the top.

I think Trey Flowers going to Detroit and there not being a bigger market for him and the teams that had the very top end of the cap space, whether it be the Colts or the Jets, you know, Browns, Bills. The teams with really money to spend this offseason, it was the Lions who were sort of in that middling group where they could sign one guy or maybe a couple, but really didn't have just so much at their, you know, at their disposal that they could go at the very top end. But Trey Flowers, that one, going to the Lions was a little interesting to me. Yeah, that one was a lot of money being thrown around.

Also, the Landon Collins one surprised me personally. $14 million a year for a box safety. What did you think about the Landon Collins move? Because I know he was connected pretty heavily to the Colts before he signed off the Redskins. That one got a lot of hate, definitely, because it is a big. Six years, $14 million a year. When you compare it to what Quan Alexander got with San Francisco, because it is a big six years 14 million year only compared to quan al quan alexander got uh

you know with san francisco which is almost 14 million a year blind college is a better football player in general he's a better cover at coverage whether it's underneath zones uh if you want him to do the exact same role that quan alexander does he's going to be a better player at her so from that perspective you've got a good player you got a box safety who's going to be a very good box safety. If you're the Redskins, you're not signing one-off someone to help you next season. You're going to suck next year. You have Alex Smith. That terrible situation with his contract in the leg. He may never play again. Two years to get that contract off the books. That's when they can start competing again. Landon Collins will still be in his prime and be a fairly, probably

not even close to the highest-paid safety in the NFL at that point in time. Yeah, that's a really interesting point to bring up there. Maybe the Redskins can get away with that kind of money. But I wanted to pivot really quickly to another big name here, Le'Veon Bell. He still hasn't signed yet. There's always smoke and some fire going along on NFL Twitter right now, maybe the Jets, maybe the Raiders. I saw a tweet from you, though, which is actually a really good point here. What if there really isn't a market for Le'Veon Bell

and his agents trying to draw up a storm right now? That's, I mean, almost what it seems like because obviously the number he had in his head that he was worth last year with the Pittsburgh Steelers, no one's out there giving him because if they were, he'd be jumping at it in a heartbeat. And I think there's just too many sort of red flags that go along with Le'Veon Bell. The fact that he literally did just sit out a whole season.

The fact that he has a lot of wear and tear on his body. And the fact that the last full season he played, he was not nearly as effective as he was in the past. The whole gaining weight thing over the course of the off season. Too many teams, too many red flags that no one's going to give him the guaranteed money he wants. And so from there it's who ends up getting even close to that is probably where it's at right now

because I think his agent and any team that may have shown interest are just pretty far apart at this point. What would you say as far as maybe a Bell targets here? I mentioned a couple teams there, maybe the Jets, maybe the Raiders, maybe the Ravens. Are those really just maybe the final three for Bell at this point, you think? Yeah, I think just with the way the Jets maybe the Raiders maybe the Ravens are those really just maybe the final three for Bell at this point you think yeah I think just with the way the Jets and the Raiders have been throwing around cash you have to talk about them and what they could bring what they could even offer Bell in terms of how much space they have to utilize but I do think the Raiders and of all teams sort of have the best in terms of need there at the position they don't really have much in the way of talent at running back despite getting good results because of what

they did with Lamar Jackson and that running game a season ago if you put a legitimate rushing threat with Lamar Jackson and who can also catch out of the backfield as well he's actually going to provide probably the most value there than he would anywhere because they're giving you favorable looks to run against they're going to give you space to run with lamar jackson that offense if you have a guy who can take advantage of that it could take it to the next level if you have you know the gus edwards of the world who is going to churn out four or five yards before contact fall down for two or three more that's not going to be the same that's not going to be nearly as dynamic an offense so i think levi on bell could actually make the most sense for the Ravens in terms of

being actually willing to pay that price. Yeah, I actually really love that Le'Veon fit. The more I think about with Lamar Jackson too. One more free-answer question I have for you before we go on to some more Colts questions here and also the draft. Who do you think is the top Ravens available left? I mean, I know PFF's pretty high on Earl Thomas. Also Matt Paradis.

Anyone else stand out to you? Gosh, I would have to go look at the list. Everyone, it seems like every 15 minutes someone goes off the board. So I'm not actually sure who is highest on our board. I know Earl Thomas actually still is the highest on our board. But after that, I'm not 100% sure. But yeah, Earl Thomas, to me, signing Earl Thomas, you're getting a good player. With some of these guys that have been getting big deals, someone like, say, even a Preston Smith,

you're not 100% sure you're getting a legitimately good player for the next three to four years. Earl Thomas, he's going to be, when healthy, one of the best safeties in the NFL. You know this. That's been every single season of his career. He's only 30 years old. There's not really a question there. So I think that, to me, is the biggest sort of thing that you that I look for in free agency is not potential for what they could be it's are they good right now if a guy's

good right now chances are he's going to be good in the future with Earl Thomas you're already getting one of the best safeties in the NFL maybe he won't last three to four years but that's pretty much you can say that about any free agent you're signing right now yeah Earl definitely is a all pro who I think is going to impact almost any defense he goes on here. But let's go to the cold side of things really quickly, Mike. And they signed one guy yesterday, Devin Funchess, to a one-year $10 million guarantee, fully guaranteed $13 million with incentives.

What do you think about that deal? Because I think that was kind of a different one compared to the most of the free agency market so far. Yeah, I mean, it was sort of a mercenary deal. Chris Ballard said he puts a price on a player, and if it goes above that price, well, they're not going to go get it. Devin Funchess, they obviously think highly of to get

him that much, and he has flashed at times over the course of his career. He's obviously one of the bigger receivers in the NFL. When Cam Newton was happy last year, he was producing for a good chunk of that season before he fell off in the second half. So I can see why you would take that chance on him. Obviously need receiving help there for the Indianapolis Colts. But again,

you're not tied to that long-term. It's not a deal that's going to sort of crush your salary gap. You're in a position right now where the Colts are in, where you have this window of sustained success that could last you know for a good portion for the next five six years with how well you're set up salary-wise don't do anything to jeopardize that don't go willy-nilly throwing around cash just because you have it yeah i agree with that i think that's the smartest way to go about it right now and especially the function signing is interesting to me because the more i think about it the more

i think with dion Kane being back, the possibility to draft a wide receiver early. Do you think we see more exploration here of T.Y. Hilton maybe in the slot more this season because he hasn't really done that that often? Yeah, I don't know exactly the plan for Deion Kane or Funches in the offense. I think he actually could figure himself as more of a big slot, but I think it gives you flexibility. I think that's what a lot

of offense coordinators want is not having to pigeonhole one guy into one spot snap after snap after snap being able to run a bunch of different plays out of you know or the same play out a bunch of different formations and vice versa is valuable so the fact that ty hill can seamlessly fill in at the slot and you know be a deep a vertical threat out of that fact that punches can fill in at the slot and be you know an underneath possession threat get open in that regard and then both can then seamlessly go to the outside and excel there as well as i think something that a lot of coordinators would find value in for sure and i think uh another interesting route the colts and goat this you mentioned it earlier a little bit mike just the mercenary route it seems like that's the way they're going to go about

this with the Funches signing a one-year deal. Maybe two years at max they're going to go with these contracts. Do you think that's the smartest way to go about it with the way the Colts' salary cap is structured right now? Because when you look at 2020 as well, they have about six to seven important guys who are going to be up for extension at that point. Yeah, I think if you're really not,

I think there are a few ways you can approach for agency one is to plug holes with mercenaries and i think that's the colts right now is what their strategy has been a lot of is plugging holes with guys who aren't uh you know don't give a guy a four-year 40 million dollars to plug a hole that's going to be on your roster right now if you want to plug a hole right now give them a contract that is just for right now and then address it again down the road or have a draft pick to develop it basically use free agency to pigeonhole yourself into drafting certain positions when it comes draft time i think they've done a good job of that but you can also use it to get elite level talent they passed on that this round and you know they did not for the most part i think they're not going to be

handing out any 20 million dollar 50 plus million million deal per year to anyone in the next few days. I think they sort of passed on the valuations that a lot of people had in the market. But I think with the cap situation they're in, they're perfectly situated to do that again next year if they see the value or the year after that, which is good. Which means you're not committing yourself to a certain player and you're not stuck with the guy. So I think the flexibility that they're keeping themselves in is very admirable at this point. Definitely.

And this is an easy question for you, Mike, but just thinking just how different it's been for the Colts since Chris Ballard's come aboard, compare the Ryan Gricks, and just it kind of shows you how important the GM position is in the NFL nowadays. Yes. I mean, it shows you how important long-term vision is. I think that's the biggest thing, long-term vision at the GM position and not just going based on whatever your gut tells you in the moment.

Oh, I need this position. Oh, we're not great at X position. I have to sign X no matter what the case be chris ballard has not adhered to that sort of thinking whatsoever he has not tied himself to anyone in that way brian grixen was cleared up so i think there is something to be said for a plan and chris ballard certainly has one at this point pivoting to the draft here now i think this is definitely an interesting draft class especially for a team like the Colts who has four picks in the top 90.

How do you think the top of this draft class stacks compared to maybe 2018-2017? Because I feel like defensively in this draft, especially where the Colts need to find some holes, I think this might be one of the better defensive classes all around in a little bit. Yeah, I think it's a fairly exceptional

defensive line class. One of maybe the best in nfl history i think just in terms of you have two guys at the top in nick both and quinn and williams that i would put on par with any prospect i've seen the last five years in terms of translatable i just think they're sure things as far as coming from college to the nfl they will be extremely productive nfl players if they don't suffer massive injuries, that sort of thing. So I think those two at the top, and then you have very good depth the rest of the first round along that defensive line. So I think in that regard, it could have could see over a third of the first round defensive linemen, just because of how deep that position is. But after that, I don't I don't see it being a transcendent draft in terms of the quarterbacks I don't love,

a lot of the offensive skill positions I don't love, and in the defense, the secondary, it's a fairly weak or moderately weak secondary class. So I don't think it's – I think the true value in this draft is either top five or beginning or at the start or you know the second round day two there's going to be a lot of still talented guys in day two who could come and start right away so if I'm someone who's drafted in the teens 20s I'm thinking about trading back in this draft getting more picks yeah I think Chris Power would love that too he loves those draft picks but I wanted to ask you about a couple prospects in detail here you're a Notre Dame alum I'm actually

a Notre Dame fan I grew up in Indiana so I've gone to a couple Notre in detail here. You're a Notre Dame alum. I'm actually a Notre Dame fan. I grew up in Indiana, so I've gone to a couple Notre Dame games myself. Jerry Tillery is a guy who really impresses me. He also impresses you as well. You're really having him on your big board. He would make a lot of sense in Indianapolis, I would think, or pretty much any system in the NFL. What stands out about a guy like Tillery in this draft class?

Yeah, I'm on record right now saying that after those first three, so after both uh williams allen i'd probably take tillery over anyone else in this draft class in terms of defensive health i just think what his skill set is is a very proven track record of translating to the nfl and that is tall he's six six maybe almost six seven guys who are long he has's 6'6", maybe almost 6'7". Guys who are long, he has 34-plus-inch arms. And guys who already have who are athletes as well,

who are plus athletes. He tested out as one of the best athletes at the combine among defensive tackles. And then guys who already have pass rushing moves. He's just flashed a handful already. He doesn't have one move that's his go-to. He has a handful of pass rushing moves already that he deployed with success at Notre Dame. And when you put all those those together now I know he doesn't wow the stats aren't

exceptional he has some runs hot and cold a little bit has some games where he doesn't look like the same player and had some consistency over his career but those traits when taken in totality just they're very similar to DeForest Buckner very similar to Chris Jones and I think we've both those guys have a lot of success in the NFL. For sure. I think Chris Jones is a great comp. I know you mentioned that on the PFF podcast as well. I listen to that daily.

You guys should too. Subscribe to that. But I think another interesting defensive line prospects here are Ed Oliver and Christian Wilkins, who I think are, if you're putting Hillary in that top tier below the top three guys, I think this is probably the next tier for you so what do you think about Oliver and

Christian Wilkins they're such different prospects they're so vastly different than that Christian Wilkins is fairly

polished you know what you're getting but is it ever going to be anything exceptional at the NFL level he's not that

great an athlete he's already fairly old I think he's already 23 as a rookie but he did produce on the football field ed oliver is this just incredible ball of physical tools but he's undersized you have no cool-up position he's going to play in the nfl the translatability

is a big question mark but you can't teach a guy to be 287 pounds and probably run in the four sixes like he's going to at his pro day if he works out. So I think it's definitely going to come down to your philosophy when scouting what you need on the roster. Do you want to take that chance on a guy who could turn out to be a home run? Or do you want a guy who might just be solid defensive tackle for your team for the next five to 10 years? So I think it's definitely going to come down to a philosophical decision between those two when you're drafting. Yeah, I think Tillery, Oliver, and Wilkins all can make sense for a lot of teams, especially the Colts at number 26 overall.

But I want to pivot to the other side of the ball here with some other draft prospects at wide receiver. I know they assigned Devin Funches, but I still think the Colts could go out and get a long-term answer alongside Deion Kane at 26 or 34. So who stands out in this wide receiver group this year? I know DK Metcalf is a guy who's really a polarizing topic right now, but he's really not that – his agility is really questionable. His three-cone drill was one of the worst.

It was worse than Tom Brady was. So what do you think about this wide receiver class? And it's pretty – I would say it's not so deep in, like, elite talent, but there's actually some serviceable guys throughout one through four rounds. Yeah, I actually am a little higher on this receiving class than probably most. There are a handful of guys I would end up drafting. If I'm drafting 25 and on, I would consider taking in the first round. There are probably four or five guys.

Metcalf, I think, is clearly the top guy just because of what he could be. I mean, running a 1-4-8 10-time at 228 pounds, you know, with his size, with his speed. Those are unbelievable metrics. I know the change direction is concerning, but the way he runs deep posts, deep crossers, the go route, and just him in contest catch situation, I really have no real concerns about that. He's not going to be your Antonio Brown where you can run the full route tree just him in contest catch situation i really have no real concerns about that he's not

going to be your antonio brown where you can run the full route tree with him but i don't think it really matters when you're that talented at what he can do down the field so i think from that perspective he's a clear number one but there's a handful of guys after that that offer skill sets that i like one of his teammates aj brown who i think actually in terms of running a full route tree does it better than d.K. Metcalf. He took over for Metcalf's role once he went down this past season and played the outside receiver there. I think did it really well. And he ran pretty freakishly physically talented in his own right. I think he's like 226 at the combine and almost a little over six foot around four, four, nine, which is pretty absurd. So I think he's up there in that second group. And I put J.J. Arcega-Whiteside from Stanford, Marquise Brown from Oklahoma, and even Andy

Isabella, the UMass wide receiver who ran the 4-3-1. I put those all guys in that second tier of wide receivers that I consider taking at the end of the first round. Interesting you don't mention Nikhil Harry there. I know he's had some inconsistencies here and there. I'm pretty high on him. What stands out in his profile as far as translatability i am probably going to be on record this off or this draft season as being the biggest the keel harry hater of them of them all

in terms of what i see projecting the nfl i just don't see an explosive receiver off the line of scrimmage now i know he ran a four five three which is fine time for the NFL but I don't see it translating to his releases off the line of scrimmage a ton of his production came from the slot and a lot of slot production colleges I don't want to say cheap production but you're not beating coverage a lot of the stuff I saw it's basically just him running out routes against cover three and that's easy stuff underneath that that jar after the catch is fantastic after the catch don't get me wrong but i just didn't see the ability to separate from nfl caliber cornerbacks or even college caliber cornerbacks there in arizona state which is worrisome to me so uh i'd like the after the catch ability i like some of the

highlight reel contest catch ability but if i'm drafting a true X receiver or a true Y receiver, someone I think can beat coverage outside, which is what I'm probably going for in the first couple rounds. He's not going to be my guy there. That's a good point. I think the speed is actually a concern with Harry. It'll be interesting to see where he lands on draft night, but I wanted to go over one more position with you before I let you go today. Mike, appreciate the time as always, and I wanted to hit on the cornerback position with you because the Colts obviously could be in need of a cornerback. Pierre Desir walks in free agency. What do you make of this cornerback class? We have Greedy Williams, Byron Murphy, Rakia Sin, just to name a few.

What stands out with this group? I think if you're valuing cornerback for the Colts, you're looking at a different type of cornerback than probably most teams with just the way they run their defense. It's that cover two, cover three, a lot of press. You want longer corners who have feel and zone. And I think there's a handful in this class that would fit really well in that system and guys who will be available when the Colts are picking.

The two that really come to mind that I'd really like are Amani Oruwari from Penn State. I know he's like on the 6'1", 32-inch arms, just so smooth. He's probably the best corner at the Senior Bowl in terms of he did have the highest win percentage of any corner in the one-on-ones. He makes a ton of sense of them there. And then Justin Lane from Michigan State is in the same mold to me. Long, athletic, can play press and then bail to zone.

I think those are both very good fits for the Colts in terms of what they do. That's sort of what, like I said, you're not going to be looking at someone like Cree Williams if you're the Colts just because he's a man, heavy coordinator. Skills excel in man coverage. You want someone with good feel in zone coverage if you're Indianapolis. I think you're looking at a difference. Your boards is going to be very different than some other teams' boards in the NFL. Now, before I let you go, Mike, I wanted to ask one final question generally about the Colts.

The surprising season last year, 10-6, they started 1-5. What do you think about their long-term future and also their short-term future? Because they haven't done much in free agency, but they're betting big on the draft again like last year. Drafted two all pros in the first two rounds. What do you think about this strategy with the Colts right now? Yeah, I mean, the long-term future is about as good as it gets in the NFL right now in terms of Andrew Luck still has a ton of years left on him, hopefully.

And now you have an offensive line in front of him that's not going to let him get hurt like that again, not going to put his shoulder in the tank again hopefully knock on wood there but I think where they're built young up front on the offensive line a ton of talent there and then Andrew Luck that in and of itself is a recipe for long-term success and the way Chris Ballard's been drafting of late I have no reason to think that it's going to slow down anytime soon you know the fact that you can find a Darius Leonard at the top of round two and have him make as much impact as he did gives me a lot of confidence

among the Colts to keep doing that. And that's why I wouldn't be too disconcerted here, the fact that they're not spending a bunch of money to go all in for right now because Ballard believes come draft time he'll be finding more of those gems, he'll be finding more impact starters, and paying them far less than he'd have to do right now. Now, I know our listeners really enjoy this conversation, Mike, and go ahead. I know they probably know about pro football focus,

but plug away your personal work, your Twitter account, whatever you want to for the listeners here. Yeah. Feel free to follow me on Twitter at PFF underscore Mike. We put out a ton of stuff on our YouTube channel now. Search for Pro Football Focus on YouTube. We do a handful of videos a day about NFL topics and draft topics. And then we'll listen to the PFF podcast. I'm on once a week doing draft talk. We might ramp it up to twice a week doing draft talk here. Come close to draft time. All righty, Mike. This is fun. I really appreciate you coming on.

Yeah, for sure. Thanks for having me, man.