Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS 3/29/19: Justin Houston breakdown with Seth Keysor of The Athletic

Episode Date: March 29, 2019

On today's episode of Locked On Colts, Evan is joined by Seth Keysor of The Athletic. Keysor, who covers the Chiefs with in-depth film breakdowns, discusses why the Justin Houston signing was a huge one by Indianapolis.- Keysor notes that Houston was reportedly frustrated with his role in KC's defense, far too often dropping back in coverage- Did the Colts make the right decision signing Houston for 2 years, $24 million instead of trading a future pick for Dee Ford?- How will Houston fare in the Colts' 4-3 scheme? Expect plenty of 'Houston is back' commentary- The Colts have improved their defense while the Chiefs might have regressed. What does that mean for the AFC?- Patrick Mahomes versus Andrew Luck is setting up to be the AFC's best QB rivalry since Brady and Manning- Who at this moment is the better team: Indianapolis or Kansas City?All of that, plus more, in this episode so don't miss out! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello and welcome to Locked On Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Today's host is Evan Seidring. I'm joined by a very special guest today. Seth Kaiser of the Athletic Kansas City is here to break down Justin Houston and looking forward a little bit more to the Chiefs and the Colts. How are you doing today, Seth? I'm doing very, very well. Life is good.

Can't complain. I'm getting to work at home with the kiddos today, so life is good. That's always great. It's always great to be able to do that with the kids and really just sit back and relax for a little bit. So let's talk a little bit right now about the Justin Houston sign. From your point of view, before we dive from the cold side of things, was it surprising to see Justin Houston released?

He's been with the Chiefs now for the past seven years and did a lot of production really in his first four years. After that, though, he kind of tapered off with injuries, hasn't played a full season since the 22-sack season in 2014. What was your instant analysis of the Justin Houston release and what it does for the Chiefs? Well, what happened with Houston was unfortunate. He signed a big deal, then he got hurt in 2015,

and it was an injury that really got mishandled by the Chiefs. They tried to force him back late in the year, and he re-injured. And so what ended up happening is he essentially had an injury that affected two years rather than just one, because he wasn't able to play until quite a bit later into the 2016 season. And then he finally was actually healthy throughout the 2017 season. He did sit out one game, but that was a game all the starters missed at the very end of the season once they'd clenched. Then in 2018, he fought a hamstring injury for about four weeks or so. And so what happened with Houston, it was kind of an interesting thing.

During his prime, which should have been his absolute peak years, he spent two of them battling an injury, a third coming back from that same injury. It was a pretty serious one. So you essentially have a huge contract, but he gets robbed of it to injury. So then finally last year, he comes back and is fully healthy for the first time, but now he's 29. He's a little bit older. He's not quite as quick as he was in his absolute peak, but he was still highly productive. What I do is I chart wins and losses around the edge

to where you can get a gauge for what they're doing every snap. And he was actually still more productive in terms of win percentage and loss percentage than Dee Ford. He just is a little bit of a different player than he used to be. I wasn't surprised to see him go, though, because the nature of his contract was such that it was that this was always going to be the out year. If he wasn't still producing at an Aaron Donald-type level, this was always going to be the year they would cut him loose. So I wasn't entirely surprised that it happened.

Now going to the Colts side of things, obviously the Chiefs knocked out the Colts, which we'll get into a little later, because I think that rivalry is going to be super exciting to follow along with between these two teams but the Colts got Justin Houston about 10 days after he got released on a two-year 24 million dollar deal interestingly enough the second year's second year is kind of not really front loaded so you can kind of get off that pretty easily so what do you think about that as far as the Colts side of things and what they're going to get with the Justin Houston I think that's an excellent deal for the Colts, provided he stays healthy, of course. Like I said, Houston still won at a very high rate last year. He had something like nine sacks in 11 games. Now, I'm not a sack counter because that box score analysis is for the birds, but he also applied pressure at a decent rate. If you really want to

take a look at what Houston can do, you take a look at, say, like the Chiefs-Rams game, which people don't think defense when they think of that game, but you can see how he still attracts a ton of attention, even when he's up against elite competition like Whitworth, and the fact that he can still beat elite competition like Whitworth. People talk about Dee Ford quite a bit when they talk about the Chiefs, but if you watch that game, you can see who the player who's able to be more consistent against high-end competition is. I would say even similar in terms of the Chiefs-Colts playoff game, when you've got an offensive line that's done a great job protecting their quarterback, Houston is the one who's able to win on a more consistent basis, even if he doesn't win as

consistently as Ford. And so I would say I think that's a great deal for the Colts. Obviously what the Chiefs were going to have to pay for him was too much, but he is still a very good player. He's ranked that way by PFF. He rated that way when I charted his snaps. He's just no longer at quite at that level that he was in 2014, where he was in the conversation for one of the best defensive players in the game. Now he's probably a guy you'd call maybe a top 10 edge, but not probably a top three or four one. So again, I mean, 12 million a year for that is a very good deal. Yeah, I agree with you definitely from that point of view. And at least for the cold side things from this year, I think they're going to get a really good deal with the just use to contract and especially how they're going to use him. Going from a 3-4 to a 4-3 though, seth are there any concerns you think as far as that goes

because i think from my point of view i really don't see how the risk is he's going to be a guy who plays maybe 60 of the snaps he's going to be a guy really you let go on third down do whatever he wants to get to the quarterback how do you see it going just going from that side from an outside linebacker in a three four to a four 4-3 defensive end? Sure. Well, it's worth noting that the Chiefs were only in their base defense approximately 25% of the time last season. Like most teams, they've shifted to where they're predominantly in nickel or dime, to where it's best described as an edge rather than a stand-up outside linebacker or in a three-point stance with a hand in the dirt. Houston's always been comfortable doing either.

He's very comfortable standing up and rushing. He's very comfortable rushing with his hand in the dirt. He actually, over the years, over the last couple of years, he's transitioned to more power-based player. He still has okay athleticism for a player his size, but it's no longer elite like it used to be. And so he's transitioned to more of a power rusher. He relies on a plethora of power moves and hand fighting to get to the quarterback. And he's extremely strong. So I think he's perfectly, perfectly comfortable as a 43 end. And arguably a better fit at this point in his career where he hasn't lost any of his power, but he's not quite as quick as he used to be.

I'd argue that he's more comfortable there than he used to be. Last year, he wasn't quite as good setting the edge as he'd been previously, but he was still well above average at it. He was just no longer elite like he used to be. However, there's a lot of whispers in Kansas city that he was very dissatisfied with the defensive scheme that he was in.

And you and I both know that run defense sometimes is a matter of want to, and that I expect to see him rebound a little bit in that area with the defensive scheme that he was in. And you and I both know that run defense sometimes is a matter of want to, and I expect to see him rebound a little bit in that area with the Colts. I think he's going to be very comfortable there, especially from the sounds of it. It looks like they're not going to be so focused on dropping him back into coverage like Bob Sutton had him doing far too often and just let him focus on getting to the quarterback. Yeah, I don't think he's ever going to really drop back, luckily,

in this defense scheme under Matt Eberflus. I think he's going to be just full board of the quarterback for the next two years in Indianapolis. And just your overall expectations, I guess, moving forward for the Colts here with Justin Houston, do you think he's going to be a guy who's still going to be at a Pro Bowl level, especially in a rotation where Chris Ballard said the owner's meetings this week, he wants his defensive line rotation to be about seven to nine guys.

So it's going to be a lot of buys rotating in and out. Dean, that's a smarter idea with a guy just used to, who just turned 30 years old, kind of saving his body a little bit there. I think that's always a great idea when you can rotate guys in and out. One great thing about Houston, and this is something that Sutton did right, you can rotate Houston inside. You can line him up at three tech in pass rushing situations because he's so powerful for his size.

In fact, if I recall, I think he had a sack on luck rushing from the inside. He's incredibly powerful, and he's still too quick for guards, and so he wins very quickly from the inside. So if they're looking to rotate guys around, Houston's a great fit for guards. And so he wins very quickly from the inside. So if they're looking to rotate guys around, Houston's a great fit for that. He can play anywhere on the defensive line in limited snaps, except like nose tackle. I think that's a great idea, rotating him around.

I think he played at a pro bowl level last year, except he wasn't healthy all year. Had he been healthy all year, if you look at the rate, he probably would have picked up another two or three sacks and people would talk about him entirely differently if he was coming off, you know, a 12 sack season, because that's the way people view it, right? They look at the numbers. So if he doesn't, if he plays at the same level he played last year and the Colts use him the way they're talking about, I fully expect him to, I think people are going to be talking about, you know, how Houston's

back or how he's bounced back. I just think the reality is he was playing on a really bad defense last year. I'd be remiss not to ask you this question before we move on here to the Chiefs and Colts and looking ahead to how that rivalry could be in the next couple of years. According to Adam Schefter, ESPN, he mentioned that Dee Ford was a heavy possibility for the Colts before they signed Justin Houston, but they kind of backed out because of the draft competition. I mentioned it was the 49ers for a 2020 second-round pick.

Looking at Chris Gallard, who's a former Chiefs executive as well, do you think he made the smart choice here going for Justin Houston on a 2-24 deal rather than trading some high draft competition, maybe a second or third-round pick in the future for Dee Ford? I think that's tough to say. Here's my issue. I've reviewed every snap by D4 over the last three years as part of what I do. Same with Justin Houston. Ford is an interesting player. He still

doesn't win at an elite rate. Even last year, he kind of worked on his bend, worked on his technique a little bit, looked better than he's ever looked. But he still doesn't win at an elite rate. But when he does win, he wins extremely quickly because he's got that ridiculous first step. However, he doesn't have the bend that you need to get around the edge with consistency. He does okay with it, and he's worked on it. But when you watch guys like Von Miller or Kahlil Mack

or even Houston at his peak or even now bend around the edge, he's not as comfortable with it. There's also the issue of the fact that Ford's really had one great season. He had a decent season back in 2016, and everything else has been very mediocre. Now, people that really like Ford will say, well, that's because he's been hurt. Well, then the problem is then you're saying, okay, so three out of five seasons, the guy was hurt because he was hurt part of 2016, so four out of five seasons. So you're either dealing with a mediocre play for four or five years issue or an injury four out of

five years issue. And that makes me uncomfortable paying a guy long-term. So me personally, given what they paid for Houston and the flexibility that gives them long-term, I think the Colts made the right move. They kept their second-round pick. They only locked down with someone for two years. They locked down with someone that played, in my opinion, at just as high a level as Ford did last year, and someone who is more likely, in my opinion, age aside, to repeat that performance because Houston's played well virtually every time he's been healthy,

whereas Ford is much more of a question mark. One great contract season obviously makes people leery. So I think they made the right call being patient, which Ballard is great about doing, and getting Houston rather than Ford. Starting off our Chiefs-Colts conversation, you're just kind of tying it all together here with Justin Houston. From the Chiefs standpoint, do you think that Justin Houston sign makes them pause for a second and be like, crap, that defense was a lot better than it was last year now they added our former guy in Justin Houston does that make you concerned from from that standpoint as far as the Chiefs have to handle Justin Houston now

maybe in the playoffs um to an extent it depends on where they play him because if he's coming off the right side he's going to be going up against Mitch Schwartz and I don't worry about Mitch Schwartz against anyone except maybe DeMarcus to be going up against Mitch Schwartz. And I don't worry about Mitch Schwartz against anyone, except maybe DeMarcus Lawrence has given him problems. But Schwartz held his own. He holds his own against Miller, Mack, Bosa, all of them. He does a great job. So that doesn't worry me.

Eric Fisher, on the other hand, he has a problem with power rushers, and Houston's an exceptional power rusher. So that does worry me. Unfortunately, it's tough for me to view these things objectively right now. As you might imagine, and I'm sure you're familiar with this feeling, Chiefs fans are in a little bit of an almost euphoric state when it comes to their offense where it's impossible to really worry about anything because of what they're seeing with the combination of Mahomes

and Andy Reid. I don't think, barring some huge catastrophes, I don't think much is going to really slow that offense down. Yeah, that's a good point to bring up there. I mean, just from firsthand experience watching that playoff game last year, you could tell the Chiefs offense was another level up as far as the Colts defense and their offense as well. So might as well ask you right now is from the Colts' standpoint, adding Devin Funchess, now getting adjusted to Houston, they're going to have four picks in the top 50 here. Do you expect them to make a lot of noise as far as next year

and be a direct competitor to the Chiefs here for the foreseeable future? I absolutely do. I think they have the important things. And by that, I mean the most important things, in my opinion, on a roster are the quarterback and the head coach. Those are the two biggest things. And I think the Colts have a great quarterback and what looks like a great head coach.

And everything else you can build around from there. And it helps them. You know, Ballard was long time a favorite in Kansas City. I mean, all of us were really bummed when he left, even though we knew he'd earned the job. I think he's going to continue to crush it. I think he's an exceptional talent evaluator. And I think they're going to keep crushing the draft. So I think they're going to continue to do well. I think the AFC for the next few years, obviously you've got the stranglehold the Patriots have. We'll see how long that continues. I have this ugly feeling that as long as Bill Belichick

is there, they're going to be tough to beat. But I think the Colts are right up there with the Chiefs in terms of teams that can challenge legitimately for years because they've got the coach, they've got the quarterback, and they've got smart minds to build around that. Obviously, when they met in the playoff, maybe it would have been a different story in Indianapolis. I don't know. The Chiefs looked like they were a little bit ahead of the curve. But those types of things can vary year to year,

and that might have just been a case of, you know, home field advantage really meant that much because I think the Colts have a really talented roster, especially considering where they were at just a couple of years ago. I think they just need to build up the talent level a little bit more on the defense to maybe match up with the chief speed and they'll be able to run with, they'll be able to give them a much, much, much more competitive battle in the future.

Might as well just dive into Chris Bowder for a second. What do you think about him for a moment here? Because he was obviously a right-hand man in Kansas City, helped build up that roster, got a few all-pro talents in there. What do you think for him with the Colts now, former chief? It seems like he's doing an awesome job right now, executive of the year. He's really on track as far as things go with the Colts long-term, it seems like. What Ballard is known for with the

people that I've talked to is that he is incredibly organized. It's kind of funny, John Dorsey, who obviously is doing a good job in Cleveland, they had like this group of three, basically, you had Dorsey, you had Ballard, and you had Brett Veach. And they were all considered different. They all kind of did different things. Dorsey and Veach were considered more of like the pure scout type guys. Ballard was considered not just a scout, but also more of like an overarching big picture organized type guy. Like he's like the guy that would have, you know,

the checklists and all that stuff. Right. Whereas Dorsey was known as not being very organized at all. And Veach is kind of somewhere in between. You know, Chiefs fans hope it's the best of both worlds. Ballard has a fantastic reputation in Kansas City. Frankly, there are a lot of people that would think that he would have been the guy to keep had they had the option, as much as Chiefs fans do like Brett Veach.

So I think he's great at his job, and he's shown that it's not too big for him going beyond scouting, but doing the entire personnel thing, like what they did in free agency this year. Now I probably wouldn't have been as patient because I feel like they're a step away, but the fact is they waited, they were patient. They came away with a marked upgrade along the edge. I think fun chest might fit their system really well.

And so they were very smart with how they did free agency, which gives them a ton of flexibility moving forward to sign anyone they want. That's a huge deal. And so I think he's doing a bang-up job there, and I think he'll continue to do it. His reputation, like I said, here in Kansas City is absolutely sterling. Super exciting times for sure related to Chris Bauer at the Colts and especially Brett Beach is doing an awesome job at Kansas City as well. Going to the quarterbacks here, Patrick Mahomes, what can you say about him? MVP of the league,

50 touchdowns. He's only 23 years old. Sky's the limit for this guy, in my opinion. He could be a guy who maybe wins back-to-back-to-back-to-back MVPs if he keeps this kind of production up because I think with him, with Andrew Luck as well, those two quarterbacks, they can make a really awesome rivalry here for the next couple years. Absolutely. I think one cool thing, if you just go back as recently as like five years ago, people were kind of worried, man, what are we going to do about the next generation of quarterbacks? We saw Manning was getting a little older. Everyone assumed tom brady was getting older because we didn't know he was a vampire yet and you know you had you just didn't know where everyone was going to go

after rogers manning breeze and brady now you see in the afc there's this i mean there's a whole group of young quarterbacks because with andrew luck we were hopeful but we weren't 100 sure we see how great luck is now uh especially i'm so glad he's back from that injury. Football is better with Andrew Luck in it. And so you see Luck, you see Mahomes, you see Mayfield, you see Watson, who I think are a notch below Luck and Mahomes. But I think there's a whole generation of quarterbacks coming up in the AFC that are going to make it a whole lot of fun to watch. With regards to Mahomes, he was my guy. I wanted the Chiefs to trade up and draft him, so it felt good to be right about something. But he's been better than even I thought. It's kind of one of those situations which, I mean, I don't know if Colts fans do the same thing.

Chiefs fans, we're always kind of waiting for that other shoe to drop, you know, waiting for that bad thing to happen. And we're kind of waiting for that with Mahomes because so far he's been absurdly good. And like you said, watching in the playoff game, even the things he does, there's things that no one's ever done before. No one's ever seen. It's bizarre. And so it's been a load of fun to watch, and it's been so good that we're all kind of stuck waiting for that other shoe to drop. Obviously, the Chiefs have an elite defense. They're going to have an elite – or excuse me, an elite offense.

They're going to continue to have that moving forward for the next decade, plus Mahomes at the helm here. But the defense, you obviously lost Justin Houston in Indianapolis, traded Dee Ford. You signed Tyron Matthew, though. What do you think as far as the defense goes because I feel like the Colts defense improved but the Chiefs defense unless Matthew really comes back to normal with his elite status might be regressing here a little

bit and that's definitely the concern so when you look at what the Chiefs did you know Eric Berry didn't play much at all in 2018 and so you kind of leave him out of the equation in terms of losing him. Matthew is a big upgrade at the safety spot. They've kind of treaded water at cornerback. And up front, you know, they lose Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Alan Bailey, who was a good role player last year. And they signed Alex Okafor, who's a solid defensive end, but he's not Houston or Ford.

And so on paper, it looks like they've taken a step back. The hope is Bob Sutton left town as defensive coordinator and when Andy Reid fires you that's bad that means things had to be pretty awful the hope is that Steve Spagnuolo even though he's not a world beater if he can even do an average job scheming the defense can hopefully at least help them be a little bit better than they were last year. But I think the general consensus among most people who cheer for the Chiefs and most people who analyze the Chiefs is that they really do need to continue to try to build up the talent level on the defense because the offense is probably going to take care of itself at this

point. And you don't want another season where you're looking back and saying, man, if they could have just gotten one stop on third down, they're in the Super Bowl and likely win it. And that's a frustrating feeling for Chiefs fans. You know, they were really, I mean, people talk about Dee Ford being offside, and obviously that was a back-breaking moment. But had the Chiefs been able to get off the field on any third and long situation in the second half against the Patriots, they're in the Super Bowl.

And so they have to address that defense. It's got to get better. And like you said, right now it looks like it's taking a step back while rivals like the Colts look like they're getting better. Yeah. It's really going to be interesting to see how that defense really does after this year,

or especially now looking forward with the Colts improving other teams are on the AFC are improving their defense as well. the Chiefs might be able to do well in the draft though if Brad Beach moves up in the draft I could envision that happening but let me ask you this with Patrick Mahomes contract coming up here Andrew Luck is going to be doing a contract here in about two years but Mahomes I think is down the wire quicker than him how do you think the team is going to build around him it's going to be probably the richest contract in NFL history I saw a report from Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk a couple weeks ago mentioned there was rumors about Tyreek Hill possibly being traded here soon because his contract might be too much

what's the long-term implications here about Mahomes and how you can build around him money-wise right now the Chiefs they're kind of in a blank slate situation. Of the guys who are on the roster right now, I believe only 12 or 13 of them are on the roster. They're under contract through 2021. Some of those guys were rookies last year and stuff. So they kind of have a blank slate situation here where they've kind of dug themselves out. John Dorsey did a great job in Kansas City with talent, but he did a pretty bad job with contracts.

So the last couple of years, they haven't had a lot of flexibility. Now they've finally gotten their way out from some of the more onerous contracts, and now they've got some flexibility moving forward. So they've got more than enough cap space in this year and in the following years to where they can extend the homes and still continue to make aggressive moves. But it obviously gets a lot harder. The idea is once you have a franchise quarterback, you've got to pay him big money.

Really what you need to do is you need to hit on your other big free agency signings because that removes the number that you can throw at people. Instead of being able to have seven or eight big contracts, maybe you can only have five or six big contracts besides your quarterback. So the idea is they need to figure out who they're going to build the team around with Tyree kill. There's a question of whether there's going to be some legal issues coming up here and they just don't know yet. And so the idea is they want to pick out the people that they can build around like Chris Jones. Um, and then obviously Mahomes and then figure out who else are these cornerstone players and everywhere else you've got to fill in with the draft and with

you know smart cheap free agent rentals and signings and undrafted free agents. Looking forward here to 2019-20 it feels like the Chiefs and the Colts and the Patriots can't obviously rule them out with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick still there. However long they keep going, it seems like it's going to be forever with them. I don't want to overrate the Browns just yet because they got Odell Beckham, but there's a lot of hype around them as well. How do you see the top of the AFC shaking out this year, Seth, as far as the hierarchy goes? I think that the four teams that I think are at the top of the hierarchy right now,

at least in my opinion, are going to be the Patriots, the Chiefs, the Colts, and the Chargers. Those are the teams that I think are the most dangerous. I think the Jaguars have a chance of maybe returning to relevance. We'll see. I'm not that big a believer in Nick Foles, but I do think he's quite a bit better than Blake. So we'll see if that helps them return to relevance. As far as the Browns go, it's tough to say because what happened with them last year,

the expectations were so low that even, you know, when they were just losing games by not much, it was considered a win. There was no pressure on them last year. Now there's going to be a ton of pressure. Now I think Baker Mayfield can handle that just fine. I think he's going to do a great job. But they are a volatile team.

They're full of guys that are pretty emotional. And the thing with teams like that is it goes great when you're winning, and I think Jacksonville is a good example of that. When you're winning games, it works out perfectly. When you start losing games, though, that can really be trouble, and it can feed on itself with maybe guys that are a little more emotional. So I have no idea what to expect. I think the Browns are going to be well coached, and so I think they're going to be good next year. I do think people might be crowning them just a little bit too early, though. Yeah, I agree with you there. I think they're going to be good next year. I do think people might be crowning them just a little bit too early, though.

Yeah, I agree with you there. I think we're really right on the nose as far as how similar we are, the rankings there. Maybe flip the Chiefs and the Colts just for biased reasons there. But I feel like especially those three teams at the top there, the Patriots, Chiefs, and the Colts are going to be fighting out. I feel like maybe home field advantage might decide things as the playoffs get near in January.

But before I let you go, Seth, appreciate the time. As far as any listeners out there who might not know about the Athletic Kansas City or were to follow you out on Twitter or anywhere else, you can plug whatever you want here. Oh, sure. If you're interested in all things Chiefs, you can find me at RealMN, Minnesota Chiefs fan. Obviously, at The Athletic, you know, we do what we do.

We try to do, you know, no clickbait, just good stuff. Obviously we cover the Colts as well and other, I mean, basically everything regarding Indianapolis sports is covered. If you want to check it out, there's always free trials available and that kind of thing costs less than a big Mac per month to subscribe. And so we just try to provide material that that you, you can't get elsewhere.

And so, you know, check us out if you want to. And, again, if you're interested in all things Chiefs, you can find me on Twitter at RealMNChiefsFan. Already said, this is a really fun conversation, and the Chiefs, I believe, play the Colts next year. So hopefully we'll have you on around then.