Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS 4/3/19: Prospects Colts fans should keep an eye on with Connor Rogers of Bleacher Report

Episode Date: April 3, 2019

On today's episode of Locked On Colts, Evan is joined by Bleacher Report's Connor Rogers to run through some more opinions on the 2019 Draft.Before we got into all of that, though, I asked Connor, a Jets fan, about last year's Quenton Nelson-Sam Darnold trade. Is that the first true win-win trade near the top of the draft in years? Sure seems that way.Then, I ask for Connor's "crushes" of this draft, which included Florida State EDGE rusher Brian Burns. Indianapolis has reportedly met with Burns, and Connor wouldn't be surprised if they moved up for him.How does this year's safety class look? Connor says Colts fans should be ecstatic with the latest news of Taylor Rapp running a slower than expected 40-yard dash. Also, quick notes on names like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Johnathan Abram.Well, how about that defensive line group? Keep an eye on Christian Wilkins and Jeffery Simmons at 26, Connor says.Finally, I asked Connor's thoughts on the Colts' 2018 draft class and what to expect with the AFC power rankings next season. If you didn't know, Connor let us in on why Nelson was his No. 1 prospect last year over Saquon Barkley and why his addition singlehandedly changed the direction of the franchise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello and welcome to Locked On Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Today's host is Evan Setter, joined by a very special guest today, Connor Rogers of Bleacher Report, who is also the co-host of Stick to Football with Matt Miller. Connor, how are you doing today? I'm good, Evan. Thanks for having me on, man. I appreciate it. Yeah, no problem at all. Let's just get started here. I know you're a Jets fan, and I want to just get your overall thoughts from last year. I know you've hit on this a lot on the podcast with Matt and Mello before,

but your thoughts just looking back from last year with the Jets-Colts trade. I know it kind of changed both teams for the better, I think. Obviously, the Colts got Quentin Nelson, Braden Smith, Darius Leonard, all those guys. The Jets got Sam Darnold. What's your thoughts looking about 13 months back on that trade? Yeah, I think it's the perfect example of a trade that there doesn't always have to be a winner, right? When you look at these these draft day trades and it is rare to see both teams win there usually is

a loser sometimes both teams lose but when it comes down to it you had to look at the Colts they were a team with Chris Ballard that were looking for as many draft picks as possible when it comes down to it they had a roster to fill out and for the Jets that had to be aggressive to get up into that top three to get one of the top three quarterbacks on their board, which would have been Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, or Josh Rosen. So when it came down to it, it was kind of the perfect recipe. I think it was really good that there was chemistry between those front offices. Obviously, Rex Hogan had worked with the Jets and went to the Colts. And Albert Breer wrote a really long piece on how the trade got done. Brian Heimerdinger, the Jets and went to the Colts. And, you know, Albert Breer wrote a really long piece on how the trade got done.

Brian Heimerdinger, the Jets VP of player personnel, was one of the main guys behind it working with the Colts as well. So I think it's a trade that right now you've got to look at it and say it worked out for both sides. The Colts, there's still a lot left to be seen because they're going to have some extra draft ammo, some key draft ammo this year thanks to that trade. And for Sam Darnold, if he keeps taking the steps that he took towards the end of last year, because they're going to have some extra draft ammo, some key draft ammo this year thanks to that trade.

And for Sam Darnold, if he keeps taking the steps that he took towards the end of last year, I think the Jets will finally have a franchise quarterback going forward. Yeah, absolutely. I love that trade for both sides, especially as a Colts fan here. I mean, that really changed the franchise for the better here for the next decade plus, I think, with those additions. And obviously the Jets with a quarterback like Sam Darnold and an LA Beyond Bell now, that's going to be super exciting

in New York for sure. But let's talk about some draft prospects real quick, Connor, and I want to get your overall thoughts on your main favorite prospects from this draft class. If Connor had to pick his man crush, so to say, who are they? Man, I think one that's not necessarily a round one player for most people is David Montgomery. I think when you look at the skill talent in this class,

it hasn't really been the headliner of this group. And this is usually a time of year where we're talking about what running backs are going to take over the league next year, what wide receivers, even tight ends and quarterbacks, of course. And when you look at this running back group, it's really been Josh Jacobs and everyone else. And I actually think David Montgomery and Miles Sanders are two very, very good players. So I will die on the hill that David Montgomery will be a really good starting running back at the next level. I think he can really affect all three phases of being a running back that's pass-protecting, pass-catching,

and, of course, actually running in any scheme. So I love his game. I love his contact balance. And I've been a fan since I watched him last summer. I thought he had a pretty good season for what he was working with in front of him, his offensive line at Iowa State under Matt Campbell there with that program, which has really turned things around for the better in recent years. And he's actually he's one of my favorite prospects.

Yeah, he's a guy who I really love, too. And he's a really powerful, explosive back. And he could be a guy who could definitely go on day two and he could really help a team out there. On the other side of the ball, though, on defense, who stands out to you over there? Well, I think a riser for me has been Brian Burns. He's somebody that he played around 225 pounds this year. I went down. I got to see – I actually got to see him as well.

I saw Montgomery against DCU, and I saw Brian Burns against Miami on the road this year. And he was truly playing at around 225, 230 pounds, which is really light for any defensive end. And when you look at Burns coming to the combine at 249 and putting up those testing numbers on top of having great tape, great interviews, great work ethic, he's the real deal. And he's made himself into somebody that was probably an early round two,

late round one pass rusher into a top 15 pick. So, I mean, these guys aren't necessarily my favorite or top players, obviously. You look at guys like Nick Bosa, Ed Oliver, Quinton Williams. Those are the cream of the crop in this class, but I think Burns will be a very productive player. Let me ask you this about Brian Burns, because we saw a report last week that the Colts reportedly had dinner with Brian Burns for a couple of hours. I know we can't really read too much into it during the draft process here, but the Colts at 26, he's not going to be on the board. He'll probably be gone by, I'd say, 12 or 13 at tops. So from your point of view, do you think Chris Ballard,

he kind of checks the box, so to say, for a Chris Ballard type of prospect? And I think Brian Burns makes a lot of sense. And I want to just get your thoughts more on Burns and also why he's a better prospect than Rashawn Gary. Because I know you and Matt and Mello talk about a lot on the podcast why Rashawn Gary might be the most overrated prospect in this draft class. Yeah, without a doubt. When you look at Ballard and Ed Dodds in that front office, they're guys that are going

to do their due diligence. They're going to leave no stone unturned. And whether they're in Brian Burns' range or not, which they really aren't right now, they have, with something we talked about, Evan, earlier in the show, is that they have this draft capital now to be flexible, to make moves upwards in this draft. If he falls to a range that they feel comfortable moving up to, I know they have a need at edge pass rusher. They can go get him.

They might have even asked him questions about some of his teammates. You never really know when it comes down to it why they would do a visit. And maybe they want to see, they might like the player. Maybe after the visit, they love the player. And that's what really solidifies the decision to go up and get him. So that's the reason for those kinds of visits. And when you look at Bernthorst, Rashawn Gary, it's interesting because you have Rashawn Gary, who was the five-star recruit, the top recruit of that class, really over Ed Oliver for a lot of people. The expectations were enormous.

They really didn't know where to play him. They liked to play him on the edge. I thought he would have been better inside as a three-tech, but he's an explosive athlete and he's kind of a ball of clay, right? And we haven't really seen him learn much since getting there, or at least be consistent since getting there in his pass rush plan. I think you see the long arm strength. I think you see the speed off the ball, but you know, where are the instincts and where's the IQ and stuff? And when you look at Burns, it's kind of the opposite. He's gotten better and better each year. He's added the weight. He's stayed explosive.

He has a variety of ways to attack tackles, whether it's forcing them wide with his speed, whether it's countering inside with his length or spin moves. So it's a tale of two players, right? When you look at Gary, all the hype really still remains there from high school. And it's not to say he bottomed out at Michigan because he had some really nice moments at Michigan, but he never blossomed into the star that a lot of people thought he would be.

And the NFL still believes he could be, which is why if you listen to Matt on the podcast, Matt Hammer's home, that Rashawn Gary is going to be a top 10, top 15 pick. And for me, I will go with the ascending talent in Burns. I'm right there with you. I'm kind of worried about Rashawn Gary and you guys in the pot. It really kind of backed me off Rashawn Gary for a little bit. Just when I watched the film too, he's just super inconsistent.

I think Winovich actually might get him a run for his money there as far as production goes in Michigan. But let's go to a different position here at Connor. And for me, it's an interesting one. The Coltsman connected this position a lot, safety. Who do you like in the safety class? I know there's about three or four guys there at the bottom of the first round. It could really be in that range for the Colts. Well, some good news for you guys.

Taylor Rapp just ran like a 4.73 at his pro day, and that's going to take him out of the first round. So when it comes down to it, you look at the Colts sitting there with that Jets second round pick, which is right at the top of the second round. I love Taylor Rapp. I think Taylor Rapp is a first round player in this class. He's a great player. He can play down in the box. He can cover. He could be a flat eraser. He could run up the scene. I know people are going to worry about the speed now, but that's never really been his game. So I think when you look at it, for me, if I was the Colts, that would be the guy I would target because they're in the perfect range to really capitalize on the value that he brings. There's other names in this class that could

definitely play. Nassir Adderley from Delaware, he got hurt on his 40 and ran above a 4.6, which is disappointing. We saw him work out as a corner at the senior bowl. He has some length, some really good speed, really light feet. So there's a lot to like about him. And I think he will transfer well coming out of a small school, a small program like Delaware. And then you go across the board. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, he would be my second favorite safety behind Taylor Rapp he's made huge strides this year he's kind of a nickel player a cover player and I don't know if the Colts will be looking for that I know they obviously have Malik Hooker there as a true free safety I think Chauncey Gardner could give you a little bit of everything whether you want him to play free whether you want him to play nickel you could

ask him to do a lot of different things and then you get into the the second tier of these safeties Jonathan Abram a strong safety that would make a lot of sense for the Colts. He'd be a classic Ballard pick. The way he carries himself, the attitude he plays with, the kind of character he has and the kind of confidence he has. I think he's very comparable to a guy like T.J. Ward. So if they're looking for a strong safety, a smash-mouth kind of safety like that, then you have to look at Jonathan Abram.

Juan Thornhill, a really athletic guy from Virginia. So, I mean, there's players in this class that can make an impact at safety. It just seems a lot of them start and get into that conversation when round two begins, not round one. Yeah, it's interesting. I'm kind of glad it's falling that way. I'm a big Taylor Rath there myself. So I was kind of giddy when I saw him kind of run a slow time because I think, okay, he's going to be definitely on the board there at 34th for them, so that works out for them. But let's move on here to our next position here, which is defensive

line. There's definitely a lot of interesting guys in this class who I am falling in love for. I know Ed Oliver is a guy who's not going to be in the Colts range there, but you have Jerry Tillery, Christian Wilkins, Jeffrey Simmons, a lot of guys there who, especially Simmons, who's a top 10 guy really to get that tour ACL. Yeah, I mean, when who, especially Simmons, who's a top-ten guy, really, to get that 20 ACL. Yeah, I mean, when you look at Simmons, you talk about somebody, like you just said, he is in the top ten. I have him seventh overall in this class. When you look at his talent, and it's something I know Matt alluded to earlier in the week on one of our Stick to Football shows here at Bleacher Report, is that this is someone that you can see Chris Ballard stashing.

And Simmons claims he's going to play next year. I think the Colts expect to be playing a long season. They expect to be right in the playoffs, as they should. They were really impressive last year, and they're only going to get better. And I think when it comes down to it, they're one of those teams. At 26, the value for Jeffrey Simmons is off the charts because this guy can play. He is very, very comparable to somebody like Ndamukong Su. So that's the kind of talent that he possesses. I think he'll make it to that point at the NFL as long as he can stay healthy or assumingly get back on the field so Simmons is there I know you said

Tillery I think Tillery goes early round two maybe mid to late round two and then Christian Wilkins he's probably going to go round one I mean talk about a winning pedigree there at Clemson he was the guy for a long time on that defensive line. It's a very talented group and everyone loves him. I mean, when it comes down to it at 26, once again, that's kind of where his range begins for me. And he's going to have really, really high grades. He can affect the passing game. I think he's very smart against the run, kind of a gap shooting kind of player. So those are all names that Colts fans should be very, very familiar with right now, because all three of them are in the range where they have all these picks and they really fit the profile of what that front office would do.

What would be your best case scenario, Connor, for the Colts, let's say at 26-34? I mean, from what you said, I feel like maybe Christian Wilkins, Taylor Robcom would be pretty good at 26-34. Yeah, I think you nailed it. I think you can go one of two ways here, Evan. I mean, you can go instant impact where you got two day one starters and Christian Wilkins and Taylor Rapp, or you can go a stashing starter. You got Jeffrey Simmons, you stash him for a while, and you could probably have a Pro Bowl talent for the next at least half decade.

Although the Colts, if you know anything of how that front office really would prefer to operate going forward, is they would prefer to draft all their talent and get in-house extensions done rather than play the outer market, which is why they kind of stayed a little stagnant in that external market and free agency this year. They have no problem drafting their talent and paying their talent. And that's what really good GMs do. So I applaud that strategy. So that's why it wouldn't shock me to see if you take Simmons at 26, keep in mind you have that fifth-year option on him

with the CBA agreement currently as it is. That fifth-year option changes the game because it really gives you seven full years of control of a player. And that's a long time. That really gets them right throughout their prime. That's how crazy that is unless you draft them at 20 years old, which is rare in this era. So Simmons and Rapp or maybe even Chauncey Gardner as the safety,

although I think RAP is a better fit. Once again, like I said at that early second-round pick, Jonathan Abram wouldn't surprise me. So I think the most important thing to take away from this conversation that we're having is you have to feel good if you're a Colts fan because this trap board with the needs they have and the talent that will be available in their range is really falling their way. Yeah, it's setting up really kind of perfect for the culture right

now, especially the guy who loves the draft like Chris Bauer does. At 26-34, he's going to definitely capitalize on that. But let me ask you really quickly about Chris Bauer himself, Connor, and were you kind of surprised that he kind of had the patience and the wherewithal to really not overspend for A&C, keep all that money for his own guys. He re-signed every free agent possible that was his own guy except Dontrell Edmond so far. It seems like they're really committed to that plan you mentioned there about keeping their own guys long term. What do you think about the strategy Chris Bowers is currently employing?

Well, I think at the end of the day, people are very happy that he was able to get his guy in Justin Houston. That will be an impact signing. I wasn't surprised. Everyone I asked, because of the Colts' money, when I'm doing the free agency predictions or just on-the-radar kind of things,

you ask around the league and you go, well, the Colts have all this money. Do you think they'll go? Whoever you talk to, agents, front office people, all across the league, even players, when it comes down to it, everybody knows Chris Ballard is not ever going to come out swinging on day one. That's not who he is.

That's not his strategy. He's not going to get into that wave one of free agents where he feels he's overpaying. And if you saw it, he really was, Justin Houston was nearly a wave three kind of free agent. That's how long he waited. And if you look at the numbers on the deal, those are really good numbers. So that's how Ballard will play. He'll always keep his cap flexible. And he, like I said earlier, he hopes to draft his talent and he will pay that talent rather than constantly overpaying on this free agent market when the clock strikes for agents to get deals done or at least verbal agreements done. $10 million deal with the Sens. It could have rised up a little bit. But let's backtrack a little bit with Chris Bauer to the 2018 draft. We start off the show with that. But let's just go into a little bit more detail about how impactful that class was. I mean, I can't remember the last time two guys were all pros in their first season. I believe it was Gale Sergibukas for the Colts.

They tweeted out a couple months ago. Wow. What's your thoughts on those two guys, especially also the draft? Plus they have Braden Smith, Naeem Hines, Jordan Wilkins, all these guys in there. Maybe – Well, yeah. I'm glad you brought up Braden Smith because for how great, obviously, you know, Nelson and Leonard were when you look at those guys being – getting the accolades, right?

I mean, you talk about whether it's Pro Bowls or All Pros or just seeing household names all of a sudden. Those guys really, really deserved it and they they get a lot of credit for turning around both units offense and defense especially up front i mean with the way they play but braden smith was a very important piece to round out an offensive line that had multiple holes that was always the argument against the colts drafting everybody be like oh like, oh, you drafted guard top 10. But no, this is a Hall of Fame level talent at guard. And then you can go and figure out the rest because you'll look back to that draft class and be like, that's what built the foundation here. That's what really all GM draft dreams are made of. When it comes down to it, you try to get three impact players, at least one or two stars. That's really hard to do. The percentage of teams doing that every year is astronomically low. So I think it's one of those things where you have to realize it was really special now if they can somehow get close to that again that's when you start to talk about

not just making the playoffs but trying to get to the Super Bowl yeah absolutely that's what's what's what makes super exciting for me because Chris Bauer has a super good hit record right now I think he's going to continue that going forward but let me ask you a little bit more about Quentin Nelson here and he's a guy who's super impressive to me, obviously. I think he's maybe the best offensive line we've seen in a decade, like you mentioned. How does he compare to that exact mark when he came out, too? Because I think he's ahead of him.

But like you said, really no ceiling for Quentin Nelson. Really changed the offense and the attitude of the entire team when he first got here. What's your thoughts on Quentin Nelson? I mean, he was my number one player last year, and it's kind of funny. It's something I don't really talk about often. I don't know. Nobody really had an overreaction to it. I had him over Saquon Barkley, and I think what Saquon Barkley does on the field is incredible. He's an amazing running back, but the point is with

Quentin Nelson is you watch him, and I was was like I've never seen an offensive line prospect like this he's special like truly truly special because when you look at Saquon he is too and but running backs do come around every couple years where you go wow that's a really special player I mean when you look at whether it's Todd Gurley obviously a lot of people like Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette but with with you know it was like, this is a can't-miss player. And that phrase can't be thrown around very lightly because when you look at what he does, I mean, he just changes the entire attitude of an offensive line. And I think that's really, really special. I think it changed not just Andrew Luck's mindset, but the run game mindset. And it changed, obviously, everybody that played on that unit, their mindset.

So when it comes down to it, those things really do matter. I know we all laugh at the sound effects of him on the field and just the kind of guy he is, whether it was in the hot tub recently with Taylor Luan. But he's somebody where when you line up across from him, it probably changes the mindset of defenders because they know they can get put six feet in the dirt at any time. And that stuff truly matters on the football field.

And I think we saw it with the Colts last year. Yeah, I'm super excited about Quentin Nelson moving forward. I think he's maybe top three best player in the Colts right now, which is crazy to say. And he's such an impactful player. But let's move on to our last final question here. Connor, appreciate the time as always. Just wanted to get your overall thoughts on the NFL season. Now, I know it's hard to gauge right now with the draft still two and a half weeks away,

but how do you think the team like the Colts can stack up in the AFC this year? You have the Chiefs, you have the Patriots, Chargers. It's going to be a stacked conference this year, I think. Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, it's hard to, anybody would be a fool in my eyes to think against them in that division no matter what you think of Nick Foles and the

magic he could bring. I think when it comes down to it, I still like the Chiefs a little better because I think Pat Mahomes is absolutely special, and I think they've put the necessary counterparts around him to be successful. Now, a lot could change after the draft. This is something I always tell people when I do shows this time of year. It's really tough to make predictions because the draft is so important nowadays. Look at all the impact players. I mean, if you asked me to make that prediction this time last year, we wouldn't even know that the Colts had two pro bowl caliber players or all pro, however it's divvied up. So when it comes down to it, I mean, I like them being back in the postseason. I think they have some work left to do. I think when you look at the Patriots aren't

going away, let's be real, the Patriots aren't going away, let's be real, the Chiefs aren't going anywhere anytime soon. They're going to be a problem for a very long time. I still think the Chargers have a lot left in the tank. I know, I mean, the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets have gotten a lot better this offseason. I think, especially the Browns, I think the Jets have a lot of work left to do in the draft. And a lot of it depends on Sam Darnold, the guy we talked about earlier in the show. But if you're drawing it up, I mean, the Colts got to be in the top three or four teams in the AFC, and there's not this gap there where you sit there and you go, well, you know, they're far apart.

No, they're very, very close, and it could go either way. So this draft is going to tell us a lot about what we need to know and how to stack it up because they are trending in the right direction. Absolutely. I want to get another bold prediction from you. What do you think is your hot take right now? We're a couple weeks away from the draft. If you had to place a prediction as far as maybe the most bold move you're

thinking of, what's it going to be for this year's draft class? Oh, that's interesting. I think the quarterbacks are going to go higher or at least high. And I don't know if people are sold on that yet. Like we know Kyler Murray is probably going first overall. That wouldn't surprise anyone at this point. But I think Drew Locke is going to go in the top 10 to 12 picks and probably top 10 picks in this class.

And nobody's really talking about him. It's kind of weird. And then Dwayne Haskins is another guy that's going to go in the top 10 picks. I think Washington will be aggressive to move up for one of these guys. And if I had to bet, I bet it would be Haskins. So I think we'll be sitting there once again and we'll be like, wow, these teams are aggressive for quarterbacks no matter what other people

thought of this quarterback class. So that's always fun. It always makes the draft a lot of fun. I mean, we can't wait for all our coverage and Bleacher Report here. We're going to be live pretty much for every round across the board starting on night number one on Twitter, on YouTube, wherever you watch your live stream. So it's going to be a lot of fun, and there's always a lot of drama.

Yeah, that's for sure. And super excited. I wish I was going to be in Nashville this year. I know you guys will be in New York giving us live coverage there. But if anyone doesn't know about it, stick to Football Bleacher Report, the app, let us know, Connor, about if people are just now knowing about Bleacher Report, if they hadn't already been under a rock, so to say.

Yeah, we've had the podcast going now. God, we're right against our two-year anniversary here. I didn't even realize it's just about here. So two years, me, Matt Miller, and his brother Mello is on the Friday and Sunday, the Friday and Monday shows with us. So when it comes down to it, it's been a ton of fun. We're on the road all college football season, which has been an absolute blast. We're obviously doing everything throughout

the draft, whether it's the Senior Bowl, the NFL Combine, here at Bleacher Report, nonstop. We have three shows a week, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. If you like college football, you like the NFL, specifically the draft and the offseason, it's the show for you. Alrighty, guys. That'll be it for today's episode. Go listen

to Stick of Football three times a week, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, with Matt Miller, Connor Rars, and Mello. You can also listen to Connor on Bleacher Report. He's going to be doing live coverage of the NFL draft for you guys with Matt Miller. So if you haven't already done so, go ahead and subscribe to Bleacher Report, Stick of Football. Connor, appreciate the time as always.

Yeah, Evan, thanks a lot, man. Really had a good time.