Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS 5/27/20: What if the Colts drafted Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning?

Episode Date: May 28, 2020

On today's episode, it's time to dive into another what if scenario. Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf was highly debated in 1998, but Indianapolis made the smart long-term choice. As Manning went on to be an all-time great, Leaf flamed out before the end of his rookie contract.If the Colts drafted Leaf over Manning, it would've caused a league-wide domino effect. Not only does Leaf in Indy mean no long-term success, but Manning ends up in San Diego.Leaf busting out within three years likely leads to the Colts drafting Michael Vick in 2001. Also, Brian Urlacher is likely in Indy as well with the Colts not winning much in 1999-2000 with Leaf. Would a core of Vick, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, and Brian Urlacher lead to success in Indy?This scenario definitely led a lot of different directions, as it changes the fortunes of Indianapolis forever. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With the first pick of the draft, the Indianapolis Colts select quarterback, University of Tennessee, Peyton Manning. Hello everybody, welcome back into your latest episode of Locked on Colts Parade, Locked on Podcast Network. Today's guest is Evan Sadri, I'm joined by a very special guest today's show, Stephen Reed of Stampede Blue. We're back for our What If series, our second portion this week talking through really what could have been. We talked yesterday, George Bermer of the Herald Bulletin, about if Peyton Manning never needed an ex-surgeon, but today is another Peyton Manning-based what-if scenario, and it really could have changed, unfortunately, the entire franchise in a negative way, or maybe not if you look down the future a little bit.

Stephen Rios, Stampley Blue, joins us today because we are going to talk about if the Colts took Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning, number one overall, in the 1998 draft. Stephen, how are you doing today? I'm doing well today, Evan. How are you today? Doing well, and I appreciate you coming on because, like I mentioned at the top there, Ryan Leaf versus Peyton Manning. What was it like back then in 1998? Because, of course, the Colts were number one overall pick, and it seemed like many outside of Indianapolis believed it was going to be a real debate between Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning, but it seemed like from everything I've read about Peyton Manning so far is that Ursae, Bill Polian

and Jim Mora the staff there they all seem like they really wanted Peyton Manning on board there but what was your thoughts on that I know it was over 20 years ago at this point but what was your thoughts on Manning and Ryan Leaf when he came out of school? Yeah my thoughts on it are there was a lot of debate out like you said, outside of the Colts organization. But from the sounds of it, and like you said, everything you read is they were pretty set on Peyton Manning because he was a more stable product. He was going to be ready right away. Bill Polian talked about how he was glad that Peyton stayed for that senior year of college at University of Tennessee. That year, Ryan Leaf had come out early, and there were some concerns about his work ethic,

about his ego and his attitude, and how that would translate and work into the organization. So from that standpoint, Bill Polian wanted something that somebody that was a little bit more stable and that's why they went the direction of Peyton Manning in that situation and one of those one of my favorite quotes from that area is Jim Irsay and Peyton Manning. Peyton went into Jim Irsay's office said I want to I want to play for your organization and he said and if you don't take me then I'm gonna kick your butt for the next 15 years. And there was a little bit more choice language than that, but I don't want to have explicit content put on the podcast. So clean that up a little bit for your listeners.

But that was one of those situations where I think Ursa said, you know, at that moment, he knew, like, this is the guy that I want to get behind. This is the guy I want to be the leader of my franchise. He didn't have any doubts um if he had any doubts prior to that he didn't have it after and so I think that was a pretty cut and dry decision for them but like like everybody said um leading up to the draft there was there were some questions because Ryan Leaf was on tape. He showed some more explosive abilities and traits as a quarterback than what Peyton Manning did. He had the bigger arm. He was more athletic. And let's be real, Peyton wasn't really known for his athleticism as it was.

But Ryan Leaf had that higher upside that everybody said coming into the draft. And the fact is he went to an organization in San Diego that didn't let him meet that. I think what's interesting, Stephen, you look at Peyton Manning's Tennessee stats that final year, 36 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 3,800 yards, 60 points of completion percentage. And Ryan Leaf, of course, for Washington State, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, almost 4,000 yards, but his completion percentage was And Ryan Leaf, of course, for Washington State, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions,

almost 4,000 yards, but his completion percentage was only 55. And you look at his other completion percentages at Washington State, 54, 52, 55. Nowadays, that's really just horrific accuracy. And that really showed on Leaf when he got in the NFL. He wasn't an accurate quarterback, and that wasn't going to survive in the NFL in 1998, early 2000s, that type of era, because accuracy, as we all know, watching Peyton over the last 20 years was so valuable in arm talent, arm placement. It all matters in the end there. But I think with Ryan Leaf, especially, Stephen, what's your thoughts on if, let's say, Jim Irsay and Bill Pullen were smitten by Ryan Leaf in an interview, or they're

smitten by his arm talent, and they do go with Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning, of course, ends up in San Diego. How different is not only the Colts organization, but the NFL as a whole, Peyton Manning goes to San Diego? I was going to say there's a lot of trickle-down aspects of this. If the Colts go with Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton Manning there, you think about this. Ryan Leaf got injured his first couple years. He was out of San Diego by the year 2000 or after the 2000 season. So you're going into the – and San Diego at that point had the number one pick. They were 1-15 in 2000. So they had the number one pick.

They ended up trading. It was the year Michael Vick came out. Also the year that Drew Brees was there. So you're looking at San Diego now is no longer trading back in 2001. So they no longer have LaDainian Tomlinson there because they're not picking, you know, first overall. Colts are picking first overall. So they'd have a choice between, say, like a Michael Vick or a Drew Brees and number one overall.

The other aspects to consider is with the San Diego going Peyton Manning, no longer is Eli Manning, you know, several years later saying, I don't want to play in San Diego. Now I want to play in New York, New York giants. Who knows where Eli Manning ends up? You know, if you know, Peyton Manning's in San Diego, Drew Brees doesn't get taken by this chargers. And so there's a lot of different teams and a lot of different franchises that

would have been effective beyond just the Colts. If Peyton Manning had been gone to the San Diego Chargers and the Colts taken Ryan Leaf, you'd have the Colts sitting there trying to scramble for a couple years. Now, you could go doomsday scenario and say, would the Colts even still be in Indianapolis at that point? Because prior to Peyton Manning, they had 14 seasons in Indianapolis and they made the playoffs three times. When Peyton Manning, they had 14 seasons in Indianapolis, and they made the playoffs three times. When Peyton Manning was in Indianapolis, Peyton played for the Colts for 14 seasons, and there were only three years that they actually missed the playoffs. That's what his rookie year, where they had no talent beyond, Marvin Harrison was still there, but beyond that, there was a

severe lack of talent across the board. The second year they didn't make the playoffs was the year Edger and James tore his ACL. The final year they didn't make the playoffs was the year that Peyton Manning had a neck injury. So you can't really put that on Peyton. So you're not only saying that you're changing the direction of the franchise for the Colts, you're also changing a lot of different franchises. You probably still have Edger and James in the Colts uniform

because that first year of Peyton Manning, he went 3-13. They would have picked there in the top five as it were. So you're probably still looking at Edger and James in a Colts uniform. However, you aren't getting Reggie Wayne. So one fan favorite is not going to be there because he was selected in that 2001 draft. If the Colts go Ryan Leaf and he's out of the league or out of,

out of the Colts franchise going into that 2001 draft, Bill Pullian's looking for a quarterback. You're not taking, you're not taking a Reggie Wayne at the end of the first round that year. You're looking at try to just solidify that franchise quarterback position so you go from having you know ryan leaf to maybe a michael vick in an indianapolis uniform and that would have been electric um would have sold a lot of tickets um you know it would have been fun to watch he would have been on turf just like he was in Atlanta.

But at the same time, it also plays into how every other team, how it would have had that trickle-down effect on so many other teams and so many other quarterbacks because it's not just Peyton Manning versus Ryan Leaf in this situation. But if the Colts take Ryan Leaf, there's a lot of different quarterbacks that aren't playing for their franchises that they are now or what they were known for. Steve, do you think there's any way – I know the situation was all pretty much Ryan Leaf's fault in San Diego.

I know he had his injury there, but he didn't have a lot of talent in Indianapolis. And, of course, I can mention – or in San Diego, excuse me, but Indianapolis as well. Only Marvin Harrison would have been around that time his rookie year. Obviously, he probably added an Edrin James later on. But do you think there's any way that Ryan Leaf could have succeeded in Indianapolis or no? I think there is. There is a way that he could have succeeded because what they did in San Diego is they threw him to the wolves right away.

And he wasn't ready. And had he come to the Colts, he could have at least been an adequate starter in the NFL for a while. The accuracy issue still would have been a huge concern. I think he finished his career with a 45% accuracy or completion percentage, which is beyond terrible. But you had Bill Pauly in there. You had Jim Mora, who was a steady coach in San Diego they didn't have those things where you didn't have a strong GM you didn't have a strong coach there so Jim Mora and Bill Pullian were likely going to bring in a veteran quarterback let Ryan

Leaf take some time, learn the offense, learn the NFL game. Because back then, if my memory serves me right, a lot of times those first years for those quarterbacks were redshirt years where they learned the game, where they took the time. And more recently, they've been throwing those quarterbacks into the fire. But back then, you used to get a little bit of time to get guys up to speed I think that's what Bill Pohle and Jim Mora and Jim Irsay would have done in that situation is taking the time try to bring him up

and try to work with him I don't think he might have flamed out like he did. The problem with Brian Leaf was that conditioning and his work ethic. And so he probably still would have gotten injured. That's because he didn't take care of his body like he needed to. And that was the biggest, one of the biggest things in San Diego is that he wasn't ready to play. And he wasn't there mentally on game day, and he wasn't there mentally on game day and he wasn't there physically on game day. And so that was the biggest concern I think beyond all the other off field

things that we find out after the fact that were going on with him in his life. He could be marginally better if it was in Indianapolis, but I think that he still would have just been average based on that work ethic and his huge ego and not wanting to put in the work. Arguably the biggest what if in Colts history, if the Colts took Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning at number one overall in 1998, it's arguably changes the city of Indianapolis forever, Colts football forever, and really the NFL forever because Peyton Manning, as we all know, the greatest quarterback of all time, one of, if not the greatest, as I

should say, because as we all know as Colts fans, Peyton Manning truly is on the Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks, and he might have done the same thing in San Diego if they would have taken Ryan Leaf, and history changes forever. I want to remind you guys, before we continue on our show, you're with Stephen Rios, Dan P. Blue, talking through this exact what-if scenario. I want to remind you guys, before we continue on our show, you're with Stephen Rio Stampede Blue talking through this exact what-if scenario.

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Yeah, that's the big thing there with Ryan Leaf. I'm glad you brought that up, Stephen. Just his work ethic, the off-field concerns were really pretty damning for his career. Ryan Leaf over his three-year career in San Diego, 14 touchdowns, 36 interceptions, completion percentage of 48.4%. Just horrific numbers there from Ryan Leaf. And let's get on the wormhole for a second, excuse me, Stephen, because I think for me, I did this, let's see what I have in my head,

and went down a few years as far as they do go Ryan Leaf in 1998, number one overall. Like you mentioned, probably take Edgerton James still in 1999. But in 2000, the Colts probably aren't good still. They're probably still a top five top 10 team and they took Rob Morris in the late 20s of the 2000s I believe yep exactly and I think in that scenario if they do are still targeting a linebacker that means they get Brian Urlacher in the top 10 in 2000 most likely and that could have been you have him alongside um on defense, having to lead the defense for a little bit.

Then in 2001, like you mentioned, you have Michael Vick. Probably at this point, the Colts know Ryan Leaf's not the answer. Probably, once again, a top five, top ten pick. Maybe even number one at this point if Leaf doesn't debust out like he did in his third year of his contract. What's your thoughts on the core of a what-if scenario where they would have went Ryan Leaf, but 99, 2000-2001 they would have went with Edron James still, Brian Urlacher, and then Michael Vick to pair with Edron James

and Marvin Harrison. That's a really interesting hypothetical because you sit there and you take that hit, and Brian Urlacher, one of the best things about him was he was such a fast linebacker and he was cerebral so he knew everything. And playing in the RCA Dome at that point, I think that that would have been just kind of a coup. You're probably still looking at possibly getting Dwight Freeney that year later in 2002. And so you're realistically looking at a team that could have been Adrian James, Brian Erlecker, Michael Vick, and Dwight Freeney,

four Hall of Famers, or well, three Hall of Famers and Michael Vick, you know, prior to everything that went on with him off the field, you know, had the potential to be just, he was a star when he played. And I think it would have delayed the up-and-coming, like, growth of football in the Indianapolis area because Peyton, as we all know, he kind of made Indianapolis a football town, you know, and all the things he did off the field. But having these other players, for example, O'Brien Ehrlicher

and Michael Vick, you've got yourself a situation where, yeah, it would have been a really cool thing to see. But if – yeah, I wouldn't – I guess it would be hard to argue that it would be a worse team than what they had with payton um so yeah it's i i mean i would of course prefer payton over all that because i'd rather not do that three years of just total trash of of ryan leaf at quarterback but at the same time if you can get michael vick b Brian Ehrlich, or Edger and James and Dwight Freeney, that's a heck of a four-players-in-four-years draft.

Yeah, the six years in Atlanta that Vick played, 71 touchdowns, 52 interceptions, of course he ran for over 1,000 yards over his six years in Atlanta. He would have been a monster on the RCA Dome turf, of course, with Edger and James in the backfield. It would have been a lot of fun to watch there. But accuracy is where it's interesting to me. Over the six years –

You'd have Marvin Harrison there too. Yeah, exactly. You'd have Vic throwing to Marvin Harrison. And Michael Vic never really had a stud wide receiver when he was at Atlanta. No, no, he definitely didn't. The skill position would have been a huge upgrade for him. I think even though the offensive line was not at all near where it is in 2020 for the Colts, I think it was at least better than what Atlanta had at that point.

And the completion percentage for Michael Vick over the six years he was there, 44, 55, 50, 56, 55, 53. So it wasn't accurate. But I mean, the legs and the explosiveness, the deep ball ability would have been a lot of fun to watch there. But I think we both agree, Stephen, that what do you think the ramifications would have been? Obviously, if the Colts do not take Peyton Manning, does this Colts team even have a Super Bowl?

That was one of the things that I wrote down in my thoughts before is do they have a Super Bowl? I think that they could have. It wouldn't have come as soon as it did in 2006. But it's I think that

they would have gotten one if you put that team together that we talked about. That hypothetical team of James Bryan or Michael Vick and Dwight Freeney. They'd have that opportunity. I'll tell you this. I don't think that they're playing in Lucas Oil Stadium as soon as they did.

I don't think that the Colts were going to move. But at the same time, I think Peyton Manning helped bring that team and that stadium to Indianapolis more so than any other person or player. But yeah, I'm not sure that they would have won the Super Bowl in 2006. I think they probably could have gotten it just because – and here's the thing. New England has always had trouble with mobile quarterbacks. And so that would have possibly mitigated the advantage that Bill Belichick always had

against the Colts. Whenever the Colts played in new England, because you'd have to be able to game plan for Michael Vick's legs and Michael Vick's arms. They maybe could have gone in there into Foxborough and pulled an upset or two in there with that team. But I don't think that they've got a Super Bowl as quickly. I think they would have probably won one with that core group of players, though.

Yeah, it truly is an interesting scenario because, as we all know, Ryan Lee busts out before the end of his rookie contract. Peyton Manning goes on to be one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. But before we close here, Stephen, I just want to get your thoughts on just the Peyton Manning era. I know we touched on what George just said on the podcast about the neck surgery, but watching Peyton up close as we did over the 14 years he was in Indianapolis playing, what was it like watching that?

Because that day in 1998, it changed Colts football forever. It changed the state of Indiana forever because the city and state of Indianapolis and Indiana was truly a basketball town. It was Indiana Pacers town. You get Peyton Manning on board there. It changes everything for the Colts, our national recognized team. Like you mentioned, Lucasville is built in about 10 years after Peyton gets there because the revenue is generating for the city. It just seems like the move going for Peyton Manning is an easy no brainer here. And it really helped maybe help save the franchise itself in the first few years it was there

in the first 15 years. Yeah, I agree. And it's like you said, growing up in indianapolis like the big ticket um when i was a kid was going to market square arena um and going and seeing the pacers play and seeing reggie miller and rick smiths dale davis and tony like the whole crew of my name probably almost the entire team um from back in the day that's how big they were they were the rock stars of the city. Peyton Manning came in and changed the culture of the city

and really drew people in to really rally behind somebody that they thought was a part of their community. And to a point, he was. He ingrained himself into Indianapolis, and he did so many things. I'd be remiss not to mention the Peyton Manning Children's Hospital and all the things that he did philanthropically there in the city of Indianapolis to really change the perception of professional athletes,

but also change the perception of the Colts and the franchise in both the city's eyes, the state's eyes, and the national focus. Because prior to that, like I mentioned, prior to Peyton Manning getting there, they had 14 seasons and made the Super Bowl or made the playoffs. Three years out of 14, never played in the Super Bowl. Their closest they ever got was that Pittsburgh game with Jim Harbaugh throwing the Hail Mary that, you know, that whole game, I don't really want to relive it.

But prior to that, prior to Peyton Manning, Indianapolis was a basketball town, and that was it. And since Peyton Manning, I think it's almost inarguable that it's a football city. And just to have one player that is able to make that change for the entire community, I think was huge. And that's not even including the things that he did off the court. Like I said, the Pain Managed Children Hospital has been just a beacon of hope for so many kids and parents having their children having to go through different procedures, different medical treatments, and having him being able to go through different procedures, different medical treatments and, and having him being able to donate to that and still be involved in the

Indianapolis community is just, is, is huge. Last thing I have for you, Stephen, wrapping this show up here. Appreciate the time as always. I wanted to just get circling back around to the first discussion point we had as far as it seems like, I mean, obviously it's forever. All the listeners out there as well. Like we wouldn't change history here. 1998 would be an easy choice,

Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf and the rest is history because it, I mean, of course we talk about the Michael Vick scenario, what could have been, but there's a, also a very good chance it goes disastrous. If the Colts don't take Peyton Manning and he maybe goes to San Diego and maybe San Diego never moves to LA in the first place. Cause they, maybe they win multiple titles with Peyton Manning on board there. Like it changes history forever. If they do go the opposite direction.

Yeah. I think San Diego probably has a title. If Peyton Manning was with them, just because he elevated the play of everyone around him to such a degree. And he commanded that presence and he commanded excellence from his fellow teammates. And to have that leader in the locker room, I think it would have changed the entire organization in San Diego. I don't

think that they moved to LA. I think that they are selling out crowds and they're selling out their stadium there where prior, it was hard. I mean, it was pretty easy to get a ticket to a Chargers game. And he could have transformed that community similar to the way that he transformed the Colts and transformed the Indianapolis community. Because you could get a ticket to the RCA Dome for any game you wanted prior to Peyton Manning. Even that first year of Peyton Manning, you can get a ticket.

But after he started really kind of bringing everybody along, it was hard. It was hard up until a couple years ago after Andrew Luck retired and the end of the Chuck Pagano era, it was hard to get a ticket to

Colts games without spending way above market value for it or way above face value for it. So, yeah, I think that San Diego probably has a championship at this point. You know, Drew Brees, who knows where he's at? You know, the Eli Manning's probably not with the Giants. So, you know, arguably Tom Brady might get two more Super Bowl ranks because he could never beat Eli in the Super Bowl.

But, yeah, it's such an interesting thought experiment to go through all these scenarios. Steven, always enjoy talking to you on the podcast. You can follow Steven on Twitter at NiceReadSteve. You can read his work over at Stampede Blue and his own podcast over at Stampede Blue. You can follow him on Twitter at PodPancake. Steven, appreciate your time. Thanks, Evan.