Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS 5/4/20: Establish The Run's Evan Silva on the Malik Hooker situation, impactful Colts offseason

Episode Date: May 4, 2020

On today's episode, Establish The Run's Evan Silva is back to talk through the Colts offseason. First up, we have to start off with the odd situation around Malik Hooker. Why is Indy dragging their feet on a $6.7 million fifth-year option, and what does it mean for Hooker's future?Evan also provides his analysis on the draft picks of Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, and Jacob Eason. Who has the bigger fantasy impact in 2020: MPJ or JT?Finally, we go over the Colts' offseason as a whole. Is Philip Rivers being set up for a huge bounce back? How about where Indy sits in the AFC South and conference overall? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, everybody. Welcome back into our latest episode of Locked On Colts, probably Locked On Podcast Network. Today's host is Evan Sutter, my guest for today's show. Evan Silva, how are you doing today, Evan? I'm doing great, man. It's always good to talk to someone with the best first name all the time. So, yeah, we've done this, what, two or three times over the course of the last 12 months, so we have something to build on. Yeah, definitely. It's always double – they always say double Evans, double the fun, so I think this will be a lot of fun today.

Is that what they say? Yeah. Co-founder of Establish the Run as well. You guys can go follow him on Twitter, at Evans. So it's going to be a fun one today talking through the latest Colts news and really interesting. We're recording this on Sunday afternoon here, and we might as well kick off with this, Evan.

Malik Hooker, he is the last one remaining here as far as pick-through options go. Hassan Reddick is still as well an option, but it's not like for everything out of Arizona. He'll be declined for his pick-through options. So really intriguing what's going on with Malik Hooker right now, Evan, because there's rumors before the draft. We continue to hear about rumors with him.

What's your whole take on the situation? Cause it's only six and a half million dollars for a second, dragging their feet a little bit. Yeah. And you know, if I were in their position, I would be wanting to hang on to Malik cooker at six and a half million. I mean, I think that's almost a no brainer, but you know, he has been just a guy I think since he tore his ACL, I loved him coming out of Ohio State.

I mean, one of my favorite players in that draft. But he just really has not lived up to expectations. And I also think that there's a scheme fit issue there because I think that Malik Hooker is a single high safety. I think he is not, you know, a Tampa 2 safety. And his role has essentially been minimized in their defense. They play a lot of safeties, George Odom, Clayton Gethers, you know, the list really goes on. And the trade rumors were heavy before the draft. And I think that this indicates that they're

definitely not going to pick up that fifth year option, or at least it would be a big surprise if they did. And I think that they'll continue to listen to trade offers. I just think that this indicates that they're definitely not going to pick up that fifth year option, or at least it would be a big surprise if they did. And I think that they'll continue to listen to trade offers. I just think that they don't value him because of the scheme. Matt Abbeville is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. Right. But, you know, at the end of the day, like you, there has to be a marriage between talent and scheme. And Malik Hooker has not shown the talent that he had coming out of Ohio State since that ACL injury, and he's not a good fit for the scheme. So, I mean, I think they'd probably be willing to take a day three pick in 2021

to get rid of Malik Hooker. Isn't that surprising to you, I mean, because I remember talking off the air beforehand just how good his tape was at Ohio State, and he slipped on the board. The Colts were so eager to pick him up at 13 or 15 overall when he did because it seemed like he was going to be a game-changing ball hawk type pre-safety. He had such good tape at Ohio State there,

but injuries, inconsistent tackling, which the Colts value so much. They said Julian Blackman is a legit pre-safety in the league, one of the best tacklers in the Pac-12, so they definitely value him highly. Hooker is one of the worst tacklers in the secondary for the Colts right now. A lot of potential with Hooker, but just been so consistent with injuries and off on the field production here. Just when you look back at Malik Hooker through his Ohio State days, Evan,

just why do you think it hasn't clicked? Again, scheme fit, the ACL injury. I think you make a really good point about his tackling ability. So in the Tampa 2, what you're really trying to do is force offenses into long drives. And along the course of those long drives, what you're trying to do is to create turnover opportunities. And that's why they were so aggressive in going and trying to get DeForest Buckner. They've been trying to build on that front four. You want to try to get pressure with your front four.

You want to be able to create a lot of havoc with that upfront defensive line and be very athletic in at the second level, which of course they have with Darius Leonard and be very athletic and good tacklers in the secondary. And you want, you know, offenses to have like 10 and 12 play drives when they had those long drives that gives you more opportunities to create turnovers. I mean, you can go back to, you know, Lovey Smith or Tony Dungy. You know, there are great books that you can read about this,

this Tampa two sort of strategy and the Colts have tried to implement that. And Malik Hooker really does theoretically play into that strategy because of his takeaway specialist skills, but he just has not been that guy since he tore his ACL. So I think that that's kind of where it has gone wrong and he never was a great tackler. And you have to be a good tackler in the secondary because you can't allow big plays in the zone defense. And if you can't tackle, man, I mean, you know, as a safety, take bad angles. You don't, you know, bring, you know, wrap up ball carriers. You're going to be in, you know, you're going to give up big plays.

And in the zone defense, you cannot give up big plays. Before we move on, Evan, to some draft talk about the colts here i want to just get your thoughts on the 2017 draft class itself because we've seen so many fifth year options being declined over the last week or so just looking back on that draft class for a second just it's so hard to predict just with drafting and scouting but this 2017 draft class the fifth year option has been pretty brutal the last couple weeks. Yeah, it's been really bad. And I think that even some players that were drafted in that top 10 didn't necessarily deserve to get that fifth year option picked up. The first one that comes to mind is Mike Williams of the Chargers. He was a number seven overall. That was such a crazy draft because it was actually a good draft. If you actually look at the picks from 11 through 20 and then going through

20, 32, I mean, there was a much higher hit rate on those guys than there were in the top 10. Leonard Fournette, we knew right away that he was going to be a bad pick at number four, four overall for the Jaguars. I think that we didn't know that he was going to have this bad of a career, but we knew that that was not a good investment. Solomon Thomas, I think,

was the guy that we didn't know was going to be bad. He's just been like a rotational player. He was the number three overall pick in that draft. Mitch Trubisky, I think, I mean, I think everybody had a lot of skepticism on Mitch Trubisky coming out of North Carolina. He was a one-year starter. In his first two seasons, he sat behind Marquise Williams,

who, by the way, couldn't start in the XFL. And then Corey Davis. See, I really liked Corey Davis, but not as the number five overall pick in that draft and then John Ross I mean I think that that's another pick that a lot of people really I mean he had multiple knee and shoulder surgeries in college he's been just as injury prone in the pros so I actually think that that the failure of that top 10, or at least 50% of it, was kind of predictable.

Moving on here to the Colts draft, Evan, because it was a really intriguing one, of course. And I know you chimed in on Jonathan Taylor. We'll get to him in a minute here. But first off, with Michael Pittman at 34 overall, reliable hands, big body type, the type that Phillip Rivers loves to throw to. And I think he could thrive immediately in this Colts offense. What was your thoughts on Pittman watching at USC and also his fit and ending?

Yeah, I actually did a second-round mock draft on the Friday morning before day two of the draft, and I put Michael Pittman to the Colts at number 44 overall, I believe it was. So, yeah, I mean, I've been big on this fit for a while. Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Malcolm Floyd, Antonio Gates. That's Phillip River's history of big wide receivers. And Michael Pittman fits that perfectly at 6'4", 6'3", 223. So you have T.Y. Hilton, who's getting a little bit older.

I worry that his body is starting to break down. You have Paris Campbell. They need to win that slot receiver job. But now you have Michael Pittman, who is built and looks the part of a true number one receiver. I think that he can be a building block for the Colts offense. What do you think the ceiling is for Pittman? I just mentioned he could be a future WR1 here, but do you have like a pro comp or anything that you notice like watching Pittman or have you seen anything that maybe pops out to you most? Well, I've heard the comparison to Mike Evans,

and I think he's not quite as good in the vertical game. I think he's more of a short – I mean, he can win at all three levels, but I think he's more of an intermediate receiver. I mean, he's a big – I think he's just going to win a lot. I mean, and he's also a guy that comes from NFL lineage, which I think is sometimes underrated. You know, and he's also a guy that comes from any NFL lineage, which I think is sometimes underrated. You know, his dad obviously was Michael Pittman, and just an absolute stud athlete. And I think that his ability to win in contested situations, I think he creates a lot of separation

at the short and intermediate levels. Great hands. I mean, I think in a normal year, in a normal wide receiver year, he would have been one of the first three wide receivers drafted. In this scenario, I think he was, what, number six or number seven. Yeah, definitely great value from the Colts there at 34 overall. I think he's going to have a huge impact year one and maybe four year. Phillip Rivers is the eventual quarterback for this Colts team, Evan. But let's move to Jonathan Taylor for a second here,

because I know some Colts can't get on Twitter when you brought up a good point about just the running back value here, but Taylor's, of course, a great prospect, but what's your qualms about what Ballard did and go up a little bit for a running back, which is a little bit questionable on the surface. Yeah. And look, I love Chris Ballard. He's one of my favorite GMs in the NFL. I love his approach to the draft. This particular pick, I had some quibbles with. So I'm also a huge fan of Jonathan Taylor before the draft. For me, it was like a coin toss pre-draft, whether or not Jonathan Taylor or DeAndre Swift

was the best running back in this draft. I initially had Jonathan Taylor. I switched it like two weeks before the draft to DeAndre Swift. Either way, I think they were both like fringe, first round, you know, top 40 players. And I really think that Jonathan Taylor is going to be a great fit in the offense. One of the best offensive lines in the league. All five guys return. Jonathan Taylor is a better runner, I think, straight up one for one than Marlon Mack I think there's no question about that but moving up what it was five spots it cost the Colts a fifth round pick which look I understand that you know the fifth round picks like they don't they don't work out very often but that's also an asset that you gave up to move up for a running back and that isn't a position in the NFL that

really moves the needle. We can look right back at the 49ers and the Chiefs who were in the Super Bowl. Their backfields were led by Raheem Mostert and Damian Williams. Both those guys were undrafted. So I really do like the fit. And I'm actually, I'm going to be drafting Jonathan Taylor in my fantasy league this year. But I think that from a real life football standpoint, I think the Colts could have made better use of that pick. They would have had their choice between Jalen Johnson, Christian Fulton, and Diggs from Alabama. And I think they could have used that position a little bit more wisely. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this, Evan. You've been on this on your Established to Run podcast with Adam Levitan,

but looking at the split here between Mack, Taylor, and Naeem Hines as the scat back, so to say, how do you see that kind of splitting out here? Because I know you brought up on your show Marlon Mack. He's a really good back catching ball at USF, but we haven't seen that much at all with Hines being here. How do you think that's going to carry out with taylor hines and mac all in the back of it no i mean i think it's a mystery and i would actually rather throw that question back to you you know as an intense colts observer all right so i'll just lay out like my kind of theory is that

marlon mac moves more into the receiving back role. Naheem Hines kind of gets cut out of the equation a little bit. And Jonathan Taylor takes over as the clear cut number one, you know, early down rusher, because I think that Naheem Hines, although he has this, he's carved out this nitro in the NFL. I don't think he's very good. And I think that Marlon Mack is just a way better football player than Naheem Hines but uh I would rather just throw that back to you because I think that you might have more insight on that than I do yeah from my standpoint I think they'll still use Hines a little bit just because I know they didn't use him much last year but you see just the way he's able to get the ball in his hands as a partner turner keeper turner

maybe Phillip Verrussi loves those checkdowns we can maybe see more of that but you bring a good point though evan because i think jonathan taylor's gonna get a lot of the load this year but i think a counterpoint too i also wanted to myself here evan is that marlon mack being the final year of his contract here do you think they preserve jonathan taylor who had almost a thousand touches in college maybe run marlon mack into the ground for this year no i think they're gonna just play jonathan taylor because he's straight up better than marlon mack yeah i think they're trying to win man you know you don't sign a quarterback at age 38 or whatever philip rivers is uh to a one-year 25 million dollar deal i mean they're all in on this year i mean i you know we did a pot when did we do our last podcast we talked about

this exact scenario. It was right around the combine, right? It was right after the combine or right before the combine? Yeah, correct. And, yeah, we talked exactly about this scenario where the Colts should and eventually did sign Phillip Rivers to a one-year, you know, big money deal. It was time to go for it. And they did go for it, And they did go for it.

And they really went for it when they traded for DeForest Buckner. And I mean, you know, this is a team that's, you know, that should, and I believe will compete for a Superbowl appearance. And I think that they're not going to think about, Oh, you know, we need to preserve Jonathan Taylor for 2021. I think they're going to be like, we need to play the best players. And I think Jonathan Taylor is going to be their best early down runner for sure. Very valid point of brand there, Evan.

I know you tweet out a list, I think a week or two ago, or right after the draft about like guys who you could see as top like fantasy guys. I sure want to ask you that because I know you do great stuff, establish the run here. Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor, who do you value more from a fantasy perspective in 2020? Definitely Jonathan Taylor. So running back is a position where dudes can just jump right in and, you know, there's not that much to know.

And I think that Jonathan Taylor is very NFL ready. I think he has a few little flaws. He runs kind of straight line, kind of upright. And he's unpolished, I would say, in the passing game. But I think he's going to jump in right away and have a ton of rushing success behind that offensive line. Michael Pittman, I think, might take a few weeks to get going because, first of all, we have no offseason workouts.

There's no rookie minicamp. There's no OTAs. There's no mandatory minicamp. I mean, you know, I think that training camp and preseason could be abbreviated. So I think he's going to take a little while to get going. And you still have T.Y. Hilton there to compete for with targets. I think Paris Campbell has breakout potential. I think Jack Doyle is going to be a very, very sort of, you know, comfortable target for Phillip targets. I think Paris Campbell has breakout potential. I think Jack Doyle is going

to be a very, very sort of, you know, comfortable target for Phillip Rivers that he's going to have a lot of comfort thrown to. So I think that in your, I think that Michael Pittman was a great, great draft pick for the long term. But I think that in the short term, Jonathan Taylor is going to be, is going to give us a lot more box score production. Last draft pick I want to hand with you, Evan, just about the Colts here. I very intrigued you when you started off day three for them. And one that caught me off guard a little bit because I didn't think it really fit the profile.

But Jacob Eason, 122 overall to the Colts, his draft slide, all the way to round four, stop and end game. What was your thoughts on that pick? Yeah, so actually one of the draft props that we really hammered before the draft was the over on Jacob Eason being taken at pick number 49.5. That was his over-under. And, I mean, this was really an easy one. And that's not to discredit Jacob Eason because I think he's a legit prospect

based on his size, based on his arm strength, his demeanor. I think he's a little bit better of an athlete than people give him credit for. I really like the pick from a Colts standpoint because he gets at least one year to learn behind Phillip Rivers, who is also a pure pocket passer in a league that is starting to trend toward dual-threat quarterbacks. But for this draft prop, we really hammered that over and profited for exactly those reasons again

the line was 49 and a half at most sports books Jacob Eason went 122 overall so that was a big time hit but yeah I think this is a good environment for Jacob Eason to learn Philip Rivers is an incredible leader I think he's going to be a legit mentor. I think this is his last year playing in the NFL. Frank Reich is a quarterback coach by trade. Nick Sirianni is going to be a head coach in the NFL, I think, soon. I would have hated the pick if the Colts took Jacob Eason in the second round, which is where his over-under was.

But I love them at pick number 122. Doesn't it feel like, Evan, you just placed any developmental quarterback prospect behind this Colts offensive line? There's a chance at least, because it just, it seems like especially the pocket pass, like, like, like Easton, it makes a lot of sense. Absolutely. Absolutely. Let's move on here, Evan, to our Colts off-season discussion.

We're close to the show. Appreciate the time as always, man. We're going to go over a couple of questions about Indianapolis, how much they improved this off-season because we saw so much changes happen to this roster. I know they were 7-9 last year, but I think they have a really good chance this year to go above the old-digit wins. Maybe they can mention Erwin Lucho, Evan Push for a cerebral run here. What do you think about their entire offseason? I think that B is the correct grade. It's what I gave them for this year's draft and also what I'd give them for the DeForest

Buckner trade. DeForest Buckner is definitely capable of having an A-plus impact for Colts team. I think badly needed a three technique interior pass rusher to run what Matt Eberflus wants to run. But from a team building standpoint, I think it was only an above average acquisition. You give it the 13th overall pick. You have to pay DeForest Buckner a monster contract. I did love the Phillip River signing. And I believe that we, yeah, we like essentially predicted that would happen on our last podcast together. But yeah, I think that solidly above average, but a pretty exciting above average, though.

I mean, you've got a new quarterback. You've got a new pass rusher. I mean, what, what more are you going to ask for? Looking at the AFC South as a whole, Evan, I know the Texans are who knows what they're doing with Bill O'Brien right now, just getting that organization apart. It seems around Deshaun Watson, but Tennessee is still around. You have Jacksonville, I think kind of putting in their tank for Trevor Lawrence kind of bid here right now. How do you see the AFC South shaking out right now?

Where it seems like it's really a two-team race? I could not agree with that more, and I think that's going to help the Colts and the Titans at the top of the division because I think that the Jaguars are going to be terrible, like 3-13 terrible. And then the Texans, who the essentially the best team in the division last year at least you know neck and neck with the Titans they traded away one of their best

three players in DeAndre Hopkins which hurts their quarterback Deshaun Watson I mean Deshaun Watson even going back to Clemson had that back shoulder receiver in Mike Williams he had that back shoulder receiver in uh DeAndre Hopkins and now he this for the first time in his playing career since high school, he has not had that back shoulder receiver. I mean, none of these guys that, you know, Will Fuller, Brandon Cooks, Kenny Stills, you know, Randall Cobb, these guys are not back shoulder dominant possession receivers. J.J. Watt, their second best players on the wrong side of 30.

They're an extremely poorly run team. They're poorly coached. They have very limited talent. I actually did a deep dive investigative podcast about the Texans before the draft. And if you're a Colts fan who wants to wager against the Texans, I'd suggest listening to that podcast to increase your confidence in those wagers.

It's called Bill O'Brien cooking the books. I do think that the Titans are going to be good again, though. A lot of people talking about regression, but they have a formula in their big time running game. They have a good offensive line. They have a caretaker quarterback who I think is underrated in Ryan Tannehill. They have consistently not given up points defensively under Mike Vrabel. And I think they're still going to be good.

And, you know, as you mentioned, I think it's definitely a two-horse race in the AFC South. Maybe it's the Colts, Evan. Maybe it's another team in the AFC. But I just want to get your general thoughts. Who do you think closed the gap the most between Baltimore and Kansas City? Because those are two easily the top teams in the AFC. I know Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes. But who do you think is the gap the most between Baltimore and Kansas City because those are two easily the top teams in the AFC are not Lamar Jacks Patrick Mahomes but do you think this offseason outside those two teams in this conference closed the gap the most? That's a good question

I mean I think that the Chiefs and the Ravens have mostly stayed the same definitely the Ravens getting Calais Campbell was a great addition. I mean, I think the Colts have gotten way better. You know, and I'm not just saying that because we're doing a Colts podcast. I think they've gotten way better. I think they're a 10, you know, they're in the mix to win 10 or 11 games. And, you know, we've been talking about this for months, again, with the Phillip Rivers thing. You know, I think that he's going to be – he hasn't played behind an

offensive line like this in at least a half decade. He is not had a running game like this in at least a half decade, you know, even, even when in Melvin Gordon's prime, I mean that, you know, he was averaging like four flat yards per carry. I mean, this, you know, this is not a situation like Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack, I think can average four and a half yards per carry, flat yards per carry. I mean, this is not a situation – like Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack, I think, can average four and a half yards per carry, five yards per carry. I think the Colts have closed the gap.

And, again, I'm not just saying that because we're doing a Colts podcast. Last question I have for you here, Evan, is ironically enough about Phillip Rivers here. You look at the offense here. You have T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle, Paris Campbell, Marlon Mack, of course, still in the mix. But then you add Biafria and seeing the draft, Trey Byrne at tight end, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman. How much do you think this offense around Phillip Rivers, it seems like everything is built for Rivers to have a huge bounce back here.

Yeah, and again, I think the running game has a chance to be really special. It was very, very good last year. They were number seven in Football Outsiders rushing DVOA. And I think they are going to surge into the top five this year. They were number seven in Football Outsiders rushing DVLA, and I think they are going to surge into the top five this year. T.Y. Hilton, Paris Campbell, Michael Thomas, maybe largely unproven as a three-receiver set, but I also think it's a very exciting three-receiver set. I think that Zach Pascal is really underrated as a fourth receiver. He had a lot of success playing in the slot last year, and he can also win outside.

I mean, they have legitimate depth. I mean, the guys that they were playing at receiver at points last year, Marcus Johnson, and Marcus Johnson actually didn't embarrass himself for him last year. But, I mean, Ashton Doolin got on the field a little bit. Like, they were really digging into their depth last year, and I don't think theyon Doolin got on the field a little bit. Like they were really digging into their depth last year. And I don't think they're going to have that problem again this year. I do worry about their depth at tight end a little bit, you know,

for what they have behind Jack Doyle, who, you know, has suffered some injuries in recent seasons. But I think their starting lineup matches up with just, just about anyone in the AFC, probably behind Kansas City. But, I mean, they're a dangerous team, no doubt. Always fun having you on, Evan. You can follow Evan on Twitter at Evan Silva. Read his content over at EstablishedToRun.com.

Appreciate the time, man. Thanks, Evan.