Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS - 9/14 - Top Colts PFF Grades From Week 1, Matt Harmon of NFL(.)com Breaks Down Colts Fantasy Value

Episode Date: September 14, 2016

Today Matt goes through the top #Colts PFF grades by position and Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) of #NFL.com stops in to break down Colts player's #fantasy value - who to use as situational options and which Colts to offer the kitchen sink for. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hi, it's Jamie, Progressive number one, number two employee. Leave a message at the... Hey Jamie, it's me, Jamie. This is your daily pep talk. I know it's been rough going ever since people found out about your acapella group, Mad Harmony, but you will bounce back. I mean, you're the guy always helping people find coverage options with the Name Your Price tool. It should be you giving me the pep talk.

Now get out there, hit that high note, and take Mad Harmony all the way to nationals this year! Sorry, it's pitchy. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. You are Locked on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Welcome back to Locked on Colts for Wednesday, September 14th. I'm your host, Matt Dainley, and today we're going to do something a little different,

try to ease the pain from that week one loss. As I mentioned to you yesterday, Matt Harmon of the NFL.com is going to join us. He's going to fill our heads with all sorts of great fantasy knowledge, and if you weren't already, get you to go out and get you to sell the farm and get you some Colts on your fantasy team. We're also going to take a look at the PFF grades, the pro football focus grades for the Indianapolis Colts from Sunday's game. You know, like I said, a little more laid back show. I'm not going to jump on my soapbox again about Pagano or anything like that. We're going to take it easy. We're going to enjoy our Wednesday. And then we're going to jump in tomorrow to a little more of what to expect from the Broncos,

what the Colts may need to do to exploit some of their weaknesses, if there is any in that defense, in their offense, how we're going to go about shutting them down. Should be a good show tomorrow, too, as well. But today, we're going to take it easy. Now, if you haven't subscribed to the Locked On NFL Draft podcast, Kyle Krabs and Joe Marino do a fantastic job on that. You'll hear all about some unknown guys, the big name guys at the big schools, just about everything you're wanting to get from an NFL Draft podcast. The Locked On NFL podcast with Matt Williamson is also really good information as well. And just to go start following all those locked-on podcast shows

on audioboom.com if you want to hear what each team will be looking forward to this week or what stories are coming out of each facility and so on. In fact, that's what I did today. I just popped in my earbuds and listened to each team's show that was available, and I know what's going on now around the league without having to come home and search it on my computer for the rest of the night. I can't possibly follow each team all the time, so this is great for that. Please subscribe to the show.

Leave us a rating and review. Let me know what you think about the show. All you fantasy diehards as well, as we're going to get into some fantasy here on the show today too, but Vinny Iyer will give you everything you need to know to be successful in your leagues with the Locked On Fantasy Football Podcast. And as always, subscribe to your favorite Locked On podcasts. Also, if your target audience is men in the age range of 18 to 44 and you want to advertise on the show, email me and the show at LockedOnColtsPod at gmail.com, and we'll get everything working. First, we'll do a little bit of news.

Not a whole lot today as players and everybody has a day off, but the Colts, well, which is Tuesday, Colts released defensive lineman Kelsey Quarles and guard Adam Redman. They also signed cornerback Tay Glover Wright and safety Lee Hightower to the practice squad. Both those guys have been with the Colts already this year. A little surprised at them letting go of Kelsey Quarles. it makes me kind of think that Henry Anderson could be back sooner rather than later that's kind of hard to read between the lines though on something like that

they simply don't need another defensive lineman as well so it could be just just that as well now we're going to get into some of these pro football focus grades and I think you might be surprised at a few of them but we're going to go through a hefty dose of them and let you guys know how the Colts did this Sunday. So kind of interesting on some of these too. So let's jump into that. Rashawn Melvin, new cornerback. I remember telling you guys that he had a pretty good game on Sunday.

He graded out to 83.4 in coverage. That was good for 11th in coverage, and 83.5 overall, which was 13th. He had 24 cover snaps, 34 overall snaps. That's pretty good for a guy that just came into the system. Remember I was telling you about how that pick six there late in the game, that could have been huge. That could have completely swung the momentum and put the Lions on the defensive, actually making them score to catch up with the Colts. That would have been a pretty nice storyline to see. Antonio Cromartie also played really well, just come into the building not too long ago. He was at 80.9 per pro football focus on 41 coverage snaps. He was 20th in coverage, and he ranked at an 81.2 overall, tied for 19th. He had

61 snaps overall. That's a pretty good dose for a guy at his age and not only that, but just coming into the system. So we saw two corners that really did pretty well for the Colts. I wasn't even aware necessarily that Melvin had that many snaps. I was a little surprised to see a snap count, but that's great. That's great news. Patrick Robinson, on the other hand, as I mentioned to you, he's in the concussion protocol. He could be, you just never know with something like that. We'll find out more tomorrow, but he could be out at least a week, maybe two weeks. Those are so hard to gauge. Some guys are out three and four weeks. Some guys come back after one, two weeks. You just never know. But he ranked 64th in coverage with a 51.4 grade on 19 coverage snaps. Not great. I was surprised by that, though. I felt like he had a pretty good game. I know he got beat on the one play up the

rail, but I felt like he was in great position. He got back in time. I mean, he got beat, so I'm sure that was a negative mark for him. But I really felt like he had a pretty good game. I just, I mean, he got beat, so I'm sure that was a negative mark for him, but I really felt like he had a pretty good game. I'm a little surprised at that. Jack Doyle, getting to the offense here. He was third overall amongst tight ends with an 81.8 overall grade and 39 snaps. That's fantastic. He was also seventh in run blocking with an 80.2 on nine snaps. Dwayne Allen, the other tight end, was seventh with 79.1 overall on 49 total snaps and third overall in pass blocking with a grade of 75 on eight snaps. So two of our tight ends were in the top seven overall for the grades.

That's pretty impressive. We need that. Our offense needs that. Regardless of the high-power offense we have on the outside, we need those guys that are going to be hugged up close to the line. They can both block. Doyle actually blocked better in the run game. Allen blocked better in the passing game. So you have a little bit of everything with those two tight ends. That's great stuff to see and hear. So as we get along the line, we all know that there's been a lot of talk about it, actually.

I'm a little surprised that nationally it's getting as much airplay as it is. But the line played really well. We talked about this, too. Costanzo was fifth amongst tackles with an 82.1 grade on 70 snaps. He was 12th in pass blocking and 14th in run blocking. It's a nice day. I mean, not bad, not world beating or anything run blocking. That's a nice day. I mean, not bad, not, you know, not world beating or anything like that. That's good. Uh, Muhort was 24th overall amongst guards

at 75.5 on 70 snaps. Also, uh, he was 30th in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking while Denzel good was 25th in run blocking and 37th overall with a 72 grade. Ryan Kelly, the new center, was 15th amongst the centers at 75.6, 10th in pass protection and 20th in the run game. Mike Adams, the ageless wonder at safety. Now, I got into it a little bit with somebody on Twitter who continually was telling me that he's terrible at tackling, terrible in coverage.

I just don't know what that guy's watching. But he was 10th amongst all safeties with an 80.5. He was 17th in coverage and 22nd in run defense. Those are very subjective stats when you get into run defense, you know, or run support. So he was 10th overall, but they had him at 17th and 22 in coverage and in run support. So that tells you that those 17 and that 22 are a little subjective of how they grade there. I mean, it's all subjective, but 10th amongst safeties, that's good stuff for Mike Adams, the 50-year-old safety that the Colts have. The best linebacker was Seal Moore. This isn't good. We know this. We've been talking about it. I probably will be talking about it all year.

So if you get tired of it, tweet me and tell me to shut up. The best linebacker, Lucille Moore, 46th overall with a 61.7 grade and tied for 44th in coverage, actually, with Antonio Morrison. And Moore was 34th against the run. Morrison and Ayers ranked higher but had only a total of 18 snaps between the two, so I kind of threw those out. They weren't good anyways, but they weren't bad, but 18 snaps isn't much of a sample size when you're looking at these grades. T.Y. McGill and Hassan Ridgeway tied for 75th for interior defensive lineman overall at a 44.6.

McGill was 71st and Ridgeway was 67th, respectively, against the run. And McGill was 33rd against the pass, with David Perry being the next Colts interior defensive lineman at 52nd against the pass. That is another one that surprised me. I guess I felt maybe because I didn't notice any, you know, it was tackling. Maybe that's what the big red marks are for against their grade or something. But I just felt like, in general, the front line did pretty well. Maybe I was, none of it stuck out to me. So maybe that's why I assumed as much.

Edge guys, surprise, surprise. Trent Cole at 41st overall. And now here's some shocking stuff, and it just kind of makes you wonder where this is going for the rest of the year. Mathis and Walden came in at 90th and 91st. Yuck. Cole was 25th, rushing the passer, and Walden was 49th. Mathis was 86th.

I guess there wasn't much to see from him after all, after not playing any preseason games. I mean, Pagano did tell us to go to the game and watch, and apparently that's what we watched. So again, I didn't even notice Mathis on the field. So, you know, maybe that was the opposite way. Maybe I thought when I don't notice any bad, things must be going pretty well. Apparently it's the other way around. Hilton was 14th overall. Moncrief was 28th and Dorsett was 39th. Pretty good showing from the Colts wide receivers. We all know that the Colts spread the ball around pretty well Sunday, and that'll work. Now, our fearless leader, Andrew Luck, got the top grade among quarterbacks with a 95.2. Sam Munson did a really good piece on pro football focus and kind of broke down Luck's game and determined that Luck had an average depth of target at 11.3 yards and an average time per pass of 2.66 seconds,

which coincidentally was identical to his 2015 time. And that time, that 2.66 seconds to basically deliver the ball or to get the ball out of his hands to release the ball was the sixth slowest in the league. Now, when it comes to the line protecting him, Luck was pressured on only 29.4% of his dropbacks and would be if it holds up for the season anyways. The first time in his career that that pressure percentage was less than 30%. Monson goes on to explain that every other season Luck's been pressured between 36.2% and 40%. They have the graphics at the bottom of the uh at some of the articles kind of show you how they matched up against uh the opposing defense and Costanzo against the

Lions now these some of these grades are a little hard to follow because you assume that their grade overall is who that they you know who they played against but they don't match up they must be different uh Costanzo in 82.1 Muhor was a 75.5 he's the one Muhor matches up with everything else uh that he got his overall grade was 75.5 but some of the other ones in fact all the other ones were different Kelly was a 75.6 at center Denzel Good was a 78.9 he didn't grade out that high in the overall so I'm like i said this is a match-up grade of how he matched how these guys matched up against the defense themselves uh who won more this and that i i'm assuming that's how it's uh uh broken down rights though was by far the worst

uh among the offensive line with a 54.3 he that's another example of I just didn't realize that he was having so much of a bad game because I didn't notice it it didn't pop out to me that he was playing that bad I kind of just figured as I'm watching it I'm seeing Andrew Luck sitting in the pocket and delivering the ball without a whole lot of attraction from the defense especially especially in the second half. So I kind of assumed that basically they were all working really well together. But you know, these grades, it's hard to dig into these unless you have somebody actually explaining to you every little red mark and every positive connotation that goes with how they grade. So if you want to check those out, that's on Pro Football Focus. And it's pretty interesting read, you need to check it grade. So if you want to check those out, that's on Pro Football Focus. And it's a pretty

interesting read. You need to check it out. So we're going to take a little break here, and then we're going to come on with Matt Harmon. He's going to join us. And like I told you guys earlier, he's going to talk to us about the Colts' skill positions and their fantasy value for the rest of the year. As promised, we have Matt Harmon from NFL.com joining us on the line tonight. Matt, how are you doing, man? Oh, I'm doing good. It's really fun to be here right now. I kind of say like week one happens to feel like a wave hit you and it's like all this new information is suddenly there for the taking. And it's exhausting for sure, but it is a blast.

It's good to be talking about actual games too. It is. We appreciate you being here. Of course, the Colts are pretty hyped about the offense that they saw on the field Sunday. And I figure that everybody's got their drafts all finished up. But for some of those people that are Colts fans that want to acquire some Colts players if they don't already have them, or some people from other teams that are listening that want to get some Colts players because of their value, you were the guy to talk to. So first off, I appreciate you coming on tonight to join us. If you guys haven't, if you're not following Matt on Twitter, you can get him at MattHarmon underscore BYB.

He writes for the football guys. He's a fantasy writer and editor for NFL.com and the creator of Reception Perception. If you guys have not checked that out, you absolutely need to. Whether you agree or disagree with his stuff, his stuff is amazing and it's as comprehensive as you're going to get on the wide receiver position too. And among other things, it's just enormously interesting. So great to have you on the show, Matt. But without further ado, let's jump into it. What kind of role should Gore fill in people's leagues? Is he actually starter worthy on touchdown possibilities alone? Because we know he's not going to get a whole lot of yardage possibilities in this offense. Running game is

not the Colts' forte at this point. So is his short yardage inside the five yard line going to be enough to keep him as on the team as a starter or see somebody you want to put in situationally? I think he's probably more of a situational based starter in games where you expect Indianapolis to get ahead. They're obviously going to get for burn in that situation. I mean, like last week, of course, we kind of knew that he wasn't going to play a big role because it was going to get for burn in that situation i mean like last week of course we kind of knew that he wasn't going to play a big role because it was going to be an all-out shootout and that is exactly what happened you know 39 35 the lions beat the colts and that that's to be expected more of a passing andrew luck centric game but the good thing about frank gore is we know he is the guy whether he is effective or not we know that he's going to be on the field for the

vast majority of snaps. He played on 69% of the Colts' snaps in Week 1, and we should expect that sort of ratio going forward. So the appeal of Gore is you know that he's probably not going to get vultured by anybody else. And he will be a guy in the red zone that they can lean on if they choose to not use Dwayne Allen, Dante Montague, some of their big red zone threats down there. So I think he's more of an RB2, but based, again, on more situations. Looking forward ahead, they have the Chargers on their schedule in week three. They have the Bears on the schedule in week five.

Those are potentially games that you could look into throwing Gore out there, maybe some games where they can get an early lead. Good idea. Second question here is Doyle and Moncrief were the most efficient in terms of catches per target among receivers Sunday night. How much should this being efficiency play a part in trying to acquire one of them at this point in the season? Doyle could probably be had obviously in the free agent pool. And what would be your offer in a hypothetical manner for Moncrief? What would you be willing to give up to grab him?

Moncrief is going to be a tough guy to plug from another owner right now, because especially early in the season, you know, whoever drafted Dante Moncrief probably drafted him very high because they believed in the breakout season that we are watching unfold right now. Moncrief actually played 97% of the snaps, whereas T.Y. Hilton played 96% of the snaps. Now, that doesn't mean that Moncrief is the number one or anything like that, but it means that those two are clearly entrenched as the number two and number one receivers, and we know that Moncrief is going to be very good.

So I would say that if you're a Sammy Watkins owner, maybe you explore throwing Watkins for Moncrief, especially because, you know, Watkins is going to be playing at less than 100%. We've seen before that when he plays at less than 100%, he is not the same effective player. Think back to his rookie year when he was having some ups and downs

early in the 2015 season as well. But again, that just kind of illustrates the price that you're going to have to pay if you want to get Moncrief right now in a trade, or maybe a two-for-one sort of deal. But I certainly think that, you know, we already saw last year what he can do, and now that he's got his quarterback back, he's clearly the top red zone threat among the wide receivers there. Now, you know, Jack Doyle, obviously, I think he played a pretty good-sized role on Sunday.

He played 56% of the snaps, but that was clearly behind Dwayne Allen, who played 70% of the snaps. And Dwayne Allen also caught a touchdown, too. We know the Colts really want Dwayne Allen to play a big role. That's why he re-signed with the team. I think that Jack Doyle is going to be a guy that flashes every once in a while, but does not have week-to-week value unless Dwayne Allen gets hurt which by the way he's been known to do before let's just you know not forget that this is clearly a three wide receiver offense Philip Dorsett was very very good on Sunday as well racked up over 90 yards was targeted on average over 20 yards downfield

he's clearly the deep threat they played three wide receivers on 46 plays on Sunday, and that was their most heavily used package. So that will be what they base their offense on going forward. They do. They do look like a straight three receiver set almost all the time. It surprised me that they didn't push out into five wide receivers any more than they did, but it was a good thing for me because Luck got hit a couple times when they did go to the five wide. Hilton, to piggyback off that a little bit, was the least efficient catching six balls on 12 targets.

But is his big playability worth – like if I've already got him on my team, is he worth keeping or should I maybe even possibly try to swing a trade for him or vice versa if I haven't got him? How heavy of a price tag will he have on him? Yeah, I don't think that Hilton's a guy that really his value has lowered anymore based on the first week. Of course, like you mentioned, he led the team in targets with 12, I believe, but didn't catch more than 80 yards.

But I think that's a week-to-week thing with these pass catchers. I do think that the offense is very highly concentrated between the top two guys. Like I said, they played 96% and 97% of the snaps. We're going to see Moncrief and Hilton be the 1A and 1B. So I wouldn't get freaked out too much by week one with Hilton. Let's also not forget that the Lions their top corner Darius Slay is a very very good player he's an ascending young corner that the Lions extended this offseason but the rest of their guys you know don't have a ton of skill there in terms of depth

so this might have been a situation where the Colts really did not get the ball well to their top receiver because of the good cover corner on the other side but you know this is an offense where everybody can eat week to week. Andrew Luck was second in the NFL in pass attempts amongst quarterbacks. And the only reason that Alex Smith, of all people, Alex Smith passed him up was the Chiefs went to overtime. So we know that the Colts are going to be one of the top two or three pass attempts offense in the NFL. Now, is Luck likely the strongest play from this offense in general due to the fact that if this past Sunday was any indication as to how the season's going to be,

that the ball will be getting spread around quite a bit? Is he basically, because he's the distributor, I mean, Gore had six targets, Philip Dorsett had six, Hilton 12, Moncrief 7, Allen 6, and Doyle 4. Is he the best play fantasy-wise on this offense, or is it one of the receivers? Well, I guess that would depend on the league, maybe a PPR or standard scoring. Yeah, well, I think Luck is going to be the guy who makes all tides rise. I think we could see a situation where all three of the receivers and maybe going back and forth between Dwayne Allen and Philip Dorsett

on a week-to-week basis are all relevant every single week for fantasy. But like we said, Luck is at the epicenter of all that. He's going to have a really good year. He looked like 2014 Andrew Luck, a guy that's very, very capable of putting up big numbers, completed over 73% of his passes. I really like what Andrew Luck showed on Sunday. And honestly, this Colts defense is not very good. They're going to have to get into shootouts,

especially with all the injuries in the secondary right now. And their early season schedule, like we mentioned, they play Denver next week. I'm not too worried about that offense, even though that defense is pretty pretty good we saw Cam Newton put up a good fantasy day against them too but you know they also get the Chargers the Jaguars there are plenty of potential for shootouts all along the way with Indianapolis and I really of course like Andrew Luck in that situation now who is who's a guy on the team whether it's Moncrief or Gore or even Luck for that matter that you would take or that you would set a priority on in one league versus the other? I think in leagues where

you have to start multiple receivers or if it's a PPR league where you have a flex I am really interested in having any of these colts wide receivers because they're going like we mentioned the distribution is you know these the top four guys can all go back and forth week to week but beyond that you know they're not going to be throwing a ton of balls to to any of the backfield guys there whether it's frank or even though he'll he'll catch some passes occasionally he's not you know a dion lewis type where you feel the need to give him eight targets a game or something like that. And then the receiver depth beyond, which this might be why they didn't play a ton of five wide sets,

the receiver depth beyond Philip Dorsett there as the third guy is really shallow. So the distribution is going to stay up top. That's why I like all of these guys to have big weeks, week in and week out. So if you're in a league where you start multiple receivers, you know, you can start looking at a a player like a you know a Dante Moncrief or a Philip Dorsett and Dorsett is is pretty cheap I've gotten plenty of questions about him right now off the waiver wired if he's out there I think he's a priority grab right now because I think that like we mentioned this is going to be a highly highly heavy on the three wide receiver sets in this offense and that that makes Dorsett especially as like a boom bust

flex guy you know he's going to have some down weeks but you know he's making plenty of plays downfield in week one and I think we should expect that to continue right and I don't really necessarily expect him to get more than six to eight targets in in any game to be quite honest with you uh pending any uh unforeseen injuries or anything like that so he'd definitely be one of those guys where you just have to you know where you you have an injury on the rest of your team or something like that. And you've got to plug him in as the third guy. Again, talking to Matt Harmon of NFL.com, football guys and the creator of Reception Perception. Okay, Matt, who is the one guy on this Colts receiving core that you think is going to have the best season play out throughout the

duration? I mean, the smart money is obviously on Hilton because he led the team in targets in week one. He and Andrew Luck have been really tight throughout their careers. And I think that T.Y. could certainly be in a position where he's going to match his numbers from every year that Luck has been healthy. And that's about 1,300 yards and 8 to 10 touchdowns. But there's a guy that's really going to explode here. It's going to be Dante Moncrief. We saw him again catch the red zone touchdown.

I'm really enamored with his skill set because T.Y. Hilton is a great player, but he is a smaller guy, maybe more of a – I don't know if he has the ceiling of an elite wide receiver. Dante Moncrief's not there yet either, but if he continues to develop like he has really in his first few years, you know, let's not forget, this is a guy that was really raw coming out of school, took a big step in year one to become a deep threat right away for the team.

In reception perception as a rookie, over 35% of his routes were go routes, and he was highly successful on those. But then you saw in his sophomore year reception perception, even after Luck got hurt, he became a complete route runner, a guy that threatened at all areas of the field and created separation and was still dominant playing the ball in the air. So if he continues to make progress, he's the one guy in this offense

that I think could have an absolutely special season. And I think the Colts know that too. That's why he was the clear you know 1A or 1B with Hilton so if there was one guy I wanted and I was aggressive about getting him in drafts taking him in the late fourth round a lot of times even the early fourth round if I felt the need to uh to get Dante Magri but I think he's absolutely that's his that's essentially his fantasy floor this year as far as uh percentage of routes run what was his biggest change from from the go route to what what were his uh whether it was the dig did he have the biggest increase on a dig route

or or or what yeah i mean that the great part about it was that it was really spread throughout the route tree i mean his you know the the basic routes like the slant and the curl certainly those those percentages went up but one route that he really improved on a lot was the out route and that's like i in my opinion when you're scouting a receiver when you see them run really good clean out routes that's when you know they have a really good understanding of not only how to sell the vertical pattern before they break back shallow but also a really good understanding of timing and just the fluidity of their hips in order to make that that that break back and i think odell beckham's obviously the prime example right now he just runs some unfair comeback routes and if you go back and you know this is obviously a long time now but the

week two game uh from 2015 you see dante moncrief run some really pristine comeback routes against durell revis uh who's, he just had a pretty poor game against AJ Green. But a year ago now, he was one of the best cover corners in the NFL. So that was the moment to me where you say, oh, all right, this guy is really taking his game to the next level. Matt, I fully appreciate your time tonight. Thank you for being so gracious with us.

Basically, I think the moral of the story is go out and get you some Colts. Matt, thank you for joining us here on Locked on Colts. I really appreciate your time. Can't wait to talk to you again, man. Absolutely. My pleasure. Good luck to everybody this season. And remember, it's just a game. Let's have some fun. That's right. Thank you so much, Matt. Appreciate it. Always appreciate Matt Harmonman coming on he's always very gracious with his time always some great information as well uh so get yourself some colts on your on your fantasy team do whatever you got to do to pull them in get moncrief find a way to get hilton on your team find a way to get dorsett at the flex like he said and you can probably get jack doyle extremely cheap and probably all for nothing off of in the free agent pool.

So I'd like to thank Matt for coming on. Thank you for listening. As always, give us a rating and a review on iTunes. Check us out on Stitcher. Do whatever you got to do. You can catch us on Twitter at LockedOnColts. You can catch me on Twitter at mdanley underscore NFL. Please go check out the LockedOnColts. You can catch me on Twitter at mdanley__nfl. Please go check out the LockedOnColts Facebook page.

And thanks for joining me tonight. Like I said, a little more laid back tonight, just kind of hanging out. Hope you enjoyed getting some stats out of the way. And tomorrow we'll come back and we'll dive all the way in to the Denver Broncos and what we're expecting to see this Sunday as the Colts travel to Denver. Thank you again for listening. But that's a wrap for now. We'll talk to you soon on Locked on Colts. you