Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS - 9/30 - Keys To Week 4 Victory In London Vs Jaguars; Update On Colts Injury Situation

Episode Date: September 30, 2016

We identify the keys to the #Colts coming back from London 2-2, where they can exploit the #Jaguars and why they should expect to see the best the Jaguars can offer. Additionally, an update on the Colts current injury situation - who's coming back, and who's out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your daily podcast on the Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome back to Locked On Colts. I am your host, Matt Dainley, and we are here for your Friday show of Locked On Colts, and we are just that much closer to the Colts taking it to the Jaguars in London this Sunday. Just a reminder, the game this Sunday is at 9.30 a.m. local. So when you get up, get your TV on, Colts will be ready to go across the pond. So it should be a good day of football, should be hopefully a good day of Colts football.

And let's get this show on the road. First off, I want to remind you all to continue to go and rate and review the show on iTunes. Give us a five-star rating, and let me know what you guys think about the show. A lot of the feedback's been fantastic so far, so please keep that up. That's really very much appreciated.

And also, make sure you guys are catching up on some of the rest of the Locked On network across the league, including the Locked On NFL show with Matt Williamson, the Locked On Fantasy Pod, and the Locked On NFL Draft Pod. Those are all three very good, and all the league-wide shows are actually very, very good. So if you ever want to know something about another team, kind of what their game plan is for the week, go check those out. Those are great. But let's jump right into it. As usual, we're going to jump into the Colts injury report and kind of go through what we can expect to see this weekend.

First of all, we've gotten a bit of a heads up that it looks like Darius Butler will not be playing this Sunday. I don't know that that was expected or wasn't necessarily, but he did not practice today and he will not play this Sunday in London. The good news is that Denzel Good and Joe Reitz were both limited, basically because they were no-goes Wednesday. So that's nice to see on Thursday that those two are getting back on the field, getting some work done. Both of them are kind of nip and tuck from what Pagano says that they're going to do their best to get back. That's a little bit undecided, I guess, at the moment. So they're going to check and see how that goes. And of course, the rest guys,

the guys who take rests, they were all full participants today uh Patrick Robinson is going to play today uh this Sunday so that's good uh that's uh great news actually uh Eric Weldon got a rest day today but uh Jonathan Harrison actually who did not practice yesterday or today the story on him is that apparently he had an emergency appendectomy on Thursday. So he actually went, he and the trainers kind of self-diagnosed what was going on with him. They took him to the hospital, and he was in surgery. So they have said that he's going to be all right, but, you know, he's obviously not going to be playing this week. So that's a little strange that he had some sort of an illness and some stomach pain and so on,

and it turned out to be an appendicitis. So that's not good, but good that they got it before anything nasty happened because that can be a real issue with that. I know plenty of people who have had those burst or, you know, just had them gone and they just last forever. So that's a good thing. Glad he got that taken care of. And that won't be any kind of a lingering issue for him going on into the season. T.Y. Hilton also is good to go. So that's not going to be an issue. Obviously, Andrew Luck was a full participant today as well, but kind of what we've been talking about on here,

one of the things kind of today I'll touch on a little bit of what was said today in the interviews and whatnot that they've kind of been talking about, are you seeing things turn around now that these guys are getting healthy? And also that the guys who filled in, know it's kind of unexpected how how well they played even though you know the defense as a unit hadn't played very well and Pagano touched on that today and just kind of talked about how good it was to have the guys back Vontae you know Patrick Robinson of course is coming back and the availability of those complementary guys are going to give so much flexibility to that secondary now. I mean, they basically got the

entire secondary healthy for the most part, other than Butler. This is going to be interesting to watch. This is one of their big things that they need to do. We're going to talk about this real soon here on the show today. But that's a major positive for the Colts going into the rest of the season. Naturally, that doesn't typically happen to where everybody stays healthy, but for the immediate future, that's a very, very good and a very important thing that they're getting healthy in the secondary. Now, a couple things, kind of what we're going to do today is go through some of the major matchups that the Colts need to win, sort of their keys to victory, so to speak, for this week in London against the

Jaguars. And there's some glaring issues, if you want to call it on paper. But as we've spoken, we see where the Colts are improving. We see kind of where they've just flatlined in a couple of different areas, but there's definitely some areas that they need to improve on. And despite an 0-3 start, these Jaguars really do present some major issues for the Colts this week. So let's kind of go through. There's one of the keys to victory is going to be to stop Jacksonville's passing attack. The Colts are 27th in the league in receiving yards allowed Blake Bortles while he's been accurate so to speak he's had some turnover issues but he's got 843 yards he's already got 127 attempts in just three games he has been literally chucking it all over the place. And the Colts really need to make sure that they can stop this guy.

We know the weapons he's got. Julius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Allen Hearns, out of the backfield, they're probably going to have Chris Ivory back this week. Obviously, they've got TJ Yeldon. They've got a ton of weapons. They've still got a very young team, obviously. But we know what this offense is capable of. Our passing defense, like I just said, has been very loose, to say the least.

Granted, a lot of that's been done with replacement-level guys, but this is still going to be a huge test. These guys are not going to stay down for long. They're going to have a breakout game, and the Colts need to make sure that this isn't another embarrassing loss as they took last year when Jacksonville hung a 50-burger on them. So we can't assume that that's going to be the case, but at the same time it's a huge matchup for the Colts' defense, not only the defense but their back seven in general. Somehow, some way, the Colts are going to have to get their linebackers to be even remedial in coverage would be an upgrade, and that's sad, but they've got some real issues

with guys being able to read their keys, to be able to follow their assignment, and to be able to just defend. You know, anybody can be a one-trick pony and be a run defender or just a pass defender. You're in the NFL now. These guys have got to come to play and be able to be multifaceted and to be able to cover against NFL caliber receivers and running backs and tight ends. And at the moment, they're not. So that's a huge part of that too. But all in all, the Colts absolutely have to win this matchup with their passing defense against the passing attack of the Jaguars. It's undisputable. They cannot go in there and get lit up and they can't let Blake Bortles start picking them apart.

If they do that, and if that's Pagano and Monachino's approach to sit back, let the front four just stop the run and let Blake Bortles try to pass all day and do some sort of a cover two approach, that's not going to work. The Colts have to be aggressive defensively, and they've got to get into them immediately. And if they don't, they're going to have some real issues, and they're going to risk allowing Jacksonville to put some serious points on the board. The Colts have, as we've spoken before, have given up 95 points this year. Now only 70 of that's been on the defense itself.

Nevertheless, they've got to keep their point total down, and they've got to be holding Jacksonville to field goals if at all possible. Can't allow the big plays and the Colts have been susceptible to those as well. So that's one of the major ones. Now we're going to get into the next one, which is the Colts have to win the turnover battle. Now the Colts are better off thus far in turnover differential, where they're just square at zero, whereas the Jacksonville Jaguars are negative three. This isn't a huge difference. This is only three games.

So think about it that way. That is basically a push. The Colts have to win the turnover battle. Now, Blake Bortles throws three less interceptions in the first three games. The Colts and Jaguars are tied. I mean, it's just that close. So Andrew Luck has to take care of the ball. He cannot be throwing all willy-nilly to the sideline and whatnot.

He's got to put it on a cannon, and he has to put it where only his receivers can catch it. The Colts have to hang on to the football. The running backs have to seal it. The wide receivers have to make good decisions and get down. You know, just things like that. Simple things like that will help them win the turnover battle. And not only that, but the Colts defense is a part of that too. They've also got to do their part. Whereas Robert Mathis, as we've spoken about in the previous shows, has done next to nothing defensively for the Colts thus far. It's time for him to step up. It's time for him, you know, it's hard to put him in a corner and

say, yeah, you're there to strip sack somebody. But the Colts need some sort of a turnover issue to get this thing going. Now, the Colts were good with, you know, getting gethers, fumble recovery this past week. There was another fumble that the Colts recovered. So the Colts have started to become a bit more opportunistic on defense, but they've got to keep that up, and they've got to do it through scheme as well and not just kind of a luck-of-the-bounce type deal. Winning the turnover battle is crucial, especially when the Colts are giving up as many points as they are.

Their running game is kind of putrid right now. They're 22nd in the league in running, so that's going to put a lot of pressure on Luck, whether he's used to it or not. You know, that's really neither here nor there. The fact is, is that it puts extra pressure on Luck. I mean, the Colts at the moment are sitting at 86 rushing yards a game. That's like nothing. I mean, the good. I guess if you want to consider that on a flip side, the good thing is that Jacksonville is just putrid. I mean, they're 31st with 55 rushing yards a game. Like I said, they're going to have Ivory back. He's going to be getting more carries. This is not going to be the first three weeks of the season Jacksonville Jaguars at the Colts are

playing. This is going to be a typical AFC South matchup where you see these guys giving everything they've got. Plays are going to open up. We know how it is with the Colts and the Jaguars. The games are typically always tight, at least until the second half, if anything breaks out at all. So we have to keep that in mind. This is not going to be a blowout off the jump. Now, the third key to the Colts winning this is not allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars success on first and second down. Now whether the Colts have a fantastic third down conversion rate defensively or not against the Jacksonville offense, they've got to get them to third downs and not allow them to have that first and second down success because that's what's been killing the offense. They're not allowed to get into those uh we want to call it

their base defense because they the offenses that they've been playing are spreading them out they're forcing them to get into some of their sub packages quite a bit you know like we said i think it's over i think monokino said the other day it was over 60 percent of of the time and that's a lot so the Colts have to get them into third down to force Jacksonville into desperate situations so to speak now the more that they're in third down the more that naturally I think the Colts are going to be more successful in the third downs now it may not be percentage-wise what we're looking for, but it is going to be the fact that even if they're at 50% either way, the more they get them to third down, the longer that takes for Jacksonville to be successful. And they've got to force Jacksonville into some negative yardage situations, some third and long situations. That's

the real key in all of this. Not only getting them to third down, but getting them to third and eight, third and ten, you know, getting a few sacks. The Colts have four sacks this season, four in three games. This is eerily reminiscent of Colts' defense in the past. They're not getting much of a pass rush. They are doing pretty well against the run. It's not been fantastic, but it's better. I mean, you can see the wheels moving, so to speak. So we know that

they can do this, and we know that they're on the cusp of it. But the Colts are giving up over 400 yards per game at the moment defensively, and this is something that they absolutely cannot have. Now, they may give up more yards by getting the Jacksonville Jaguars into third down situations more often. I think that's a possibility as well. It's kind of an unintended result of more plays by the opposing offense. However, that's how you get Blake Bortles into situations he doesn't want to be in, making him pass downfield early, making him get downfield on third and long, and trying to take chances and such.

And he takes chances. He's inaccurate. We've seen it in the past, and we'll see it again chances and such. And he takes chances. He's inaccurate. We've seen it in the past, and we'll see it again. It'll continue to be that way. I don't think that there's any situation where, unless the Colts' defense is just getting gashed from the very first snap, that we don't see at least one Blake Bortles interception. Now, the Colts have to make them pay.

The Colts have to take advantage of any situation that he or any of the other Jacksonville players give them, and whether they can do that or not is probably another story, but a side note to this is defensive points allowed. Now, the defense has yet to score any points, and we've given up 25 points to other defenses. That's a big difference the Colts have to get something on the board defensively I think and obviously they have to keep the offense has to do a better job not turning the ball over in high high risk situations with you know pick sixes are easy along the sideline I mean that's kind of silly to say that but it's true you can't toss the ball to the sideline with nobody there to do it

and expect, you know, in such a high risk, with a high risk pass and not expect it to get taken back to the house. That's something that they can't afford to give up this week. Now, the other key is the fact that the Colts receivers have to win like they did last week. We saw T.Y. Hilton take Verrett to the shed. Andrew Luck was picking on him. The Colts have another huge, huge task ahead of them this weekend when they go against Jalen Ramsey. He's been a fantastic corner thus far as a rookie. Jacksonville's secondary is improved physically and athletically, so Andrew Luck has to be able to weed through these guys, and

they're going to have to find out, is Ramsey going to follow somebody? How are they going to try to confuse Andrew Luck? How are they going to try to confuse the Colts receivers while they're running some of their option routes? This is going to be the telltale sign. The Colts receivers are ultimately really good route runners. I think that we're going to see, again, a lot of Jack Doyle. He is Andrew Luck's security blanket this year thus far. We're not going to see 200-yard receiving games out of T.Y. Hilton every week, folks. It's just not going to happen.

So the Colts are going to have to spread it around. Andrew Luck's going to have to be very open to getting the ball to multiple receivers, as he has been this year, which is good. So one of the other things that they're going to have to do is they're going to have to find that second and third receiver, whether it's Rodgers or whether it's Dorsett or Dwayne Allen or, like I said, Jack Doyle. These guys are all going to have to step up. They've got plenty of weapons.

The Colts are going to have to use what they've got, what the defense has given them, and not try to force feed somebody. The Colts can't afford to have Andrew Luck having tunnel vision and trying to have T.Y. have a breakout game. If Jalen Ramsey's in his hip pocket the entire game, that's something they can't afford to have. They're going to have to have their running backs and their tight ends beat Telvin Smith. Telvin Smith's a fantastic linebacker, and Paul Poslezny is going to be susceptible to a lot of stuff. They're going to have to really work on those matchups and see

who's taking who and who is going to be the most viable open receiver. So Andrew Luck's got, yes, he has his work cut out for him this week, but it's something he can control and that he can win and that we've seen him really excel at in these situations as well. When it comes down to it, the Colts' defense is ultimately the big key for the Colts. The other one is Andrew Luck. This shouldn't really surprise anybody, but there are the inside workings of each that are going to be the matchup within the matchup. The Colts can't rely on their linebackers, yet they need them to do something so that the rest of the defense can do what they do.

They have to be able to cover just a little bit so that the front four can get some pressure and the back four can do their job in coverage for a couple seconds and not be having to turn around with a guy opening the flats like the past few weeks, running up the sideline, have to turn off and try to make a tackle 30 yards downfield. I do think that we see the Colts come out of this trip to London 2-2. I think the Colts are a better team mentally at the moment. They're getting guys back. They're not overtly healthy like the Jags have been and just look terrible with all that talent.

So I think there's a different mindset in that the Colts are getting guys back and they've done something with who they had. It's a mentality. And I think their mental, where they are mentally currently is better than where Jacksonville is mentally I think they're worried about losing their coach in the next couple weeks I think that they're trying to figure out why they've played so terrible they ultimately you know there's a lot of people who get you know you hear from Jags fans that Gus Bradley's terrible I think it's it's innate to kind of give other teams' coaches a little more slack than their fans do,

if you haven't paid attention to people when they talk about Chuck Pagano. But, you know, I think that we're a little less hard on Gus Bradley. And if any more, it's just been constant. Everybody, they are so badly coached. They have so many holes and they are so talented. It's such a weird combination, but the Colts, they're coming back. They're getting healthy. They have their quarterback, Andrew Luck, playing as good as he's ever played holistically. And the season looks like it could be a very interesting one for the Colts. I think they come out of this win, and I'm going to give them a two-score win. I gave them a 10-point win the other day with Ryan on our crossover.

But I'm going to go Colts 30, Jaguars 17. I think that's fair. I really do. I'm trying to be objective with these, and I think that I have been so far. But I've got the Colts by two scores. So everybody get yourselves up Sunday morning early. Get your jerseys on. Get your cup of coffee.

Get your breakfast in you. And at 9.15, 9.20, get the TV on and get ready to watch our boys over in London, see how much of an impact they can have forcing Jacksonville into an interim coach press conference by mid-afternoon. I will have the bonus interview up this weekend with Gary Myers, So be looking forward to that. And also just a little bit of extra information. I've come on today's pigskin as a Indianapolis Colts analyst for them. So you can catch my written work there again, make sure that you are subscribing to the podcast and give us a good rating or review.

And if you are looking to advertise on the show, hit me up at LockedOnColtsPod at gmail.com and let me know and we'll get that ball rolling. Other than that, I am signing off for the weekend. Be looking for those extra episodes, probably Saturday and Sunday, if not Friday night and Saturday, maybe. Be looking for those. Go horse. Come out of this weekend two and two. And I will talk to you all on Monday, hopefully after a good game and with some instant reaction. Make sure you bring it back right here and join the conversation with me on Monday

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