Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS 9/30/19: Colts ruin momentum with ugly loss to Oakland

Episode Date: October 1, 2019

On today's episode, Stampede Blue's Zach Hicks helps recap the Colts' stunning 31-24 home loss against Oakland. What exactly went wrong and what changes need to be made moving forward?After the 14-0 quick deficit, Indianapolis seemed shellshocked and was never able to crawl back to a late lead. Jacoby Brissett's pick-six on the possible game tying drive officially ended the game.Is the NFL figuring out Matt Eberflus' zone-heavy scheme? It sure seems that way as Derek Carr sliced through it for another efficient day. Eberflus' training camp words of seeing more "exotic looks" on defense is looking more like false hope than anything. Not good timing with Kansas City on tap next.We run through the usual notes from Sunday outings before closing with the three keys and prediction for the next game at Kansas City. Do you trust the Colts in a shootout? That's what it will take against the Chiefs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, everybody. Welcome back into Locked On Colts, pretty Locked On Podcast Network. Today, as always, my name is Evan Sidery, and we're joined by our usual Monday guest host, Zach Kix of Stampede Blue. How are you doing today, Zach? Pretty good, man. Thanks for having me on again. And, you know, I know it's a tough week to talk Colts after a really rough loss, but, you know,

two and two is still up there in the division, so not too bad. Yeah, I think the thing, as far as the division goes, outside of Jacksonville getting that win in Denver, it kind of broke the right way as far as Houston goes because they had a surprising loss on the Carolina. The Colts had especially probably the worst loss of the big team this week as far as expectations go. Colts lost 24-31 at home against the Oakland Raiders.

This is a game, Zach, that I chalked up as a win either way when the schedule came out in March and April. And I'm very shocked at just the start of that game because 14-0 in the first five minutes of that game. It looked like they were just shell-shocked. Yeah, and, you know, it's tough. I mean, you obviously don't want to go off to slow starts like that, and you don't want to make excuses.

But, you know, when you're missing three of your top five players on the entire roster you know Malik Hooker, Darius Leonard and T.Y. Hilton are are not just three any players you know those are three pro bowl or all pro talent so when you're missing those three guys it definitely takes a toll and and then when you get off to a slow start it's just really hard to recover when you don't have your star players to lean on so a rough start kind of a rough game overall and and the only reason the Colts were even in it late in the game was just because the Raiders kept shooting themselves in the foot. So really not too much positive to take away from the game, which is pretty tough to say after, you know, a game.

But it was just a rough outing all around, you know, from the offense, the defense, just about everything. Yeah, you can say that again, because it just seemed like the flow of the game right from the start was all for this Colts team. And looking through the stats here again, I think the hot topic of this week has to be Matty Rifflew's sack because this is now three weeks in a row, really. Outside Marcus Mariota in week two in Tennessee,

he kind of had his own accurate day himself. But Phillip Rivers, then you had Matt Ryan, now Derek Carr had himself an efficient day, 21-31, 189, two touchdowns, and we're not going to do much without getting the ground game, West for Oakland as well, but how worried should the Colts fans be here about this zone defense, because it seems like teams are figuring it out, and if you have an average of average quarterback, you're going to do pretty well against it. Yeah, you know, I wouldn't even blame just the zone defense in general, because I did see a lot of, you know, a lot more man coverage this past weekend, not that it was, you know, a lot more man coverage this past weekend.

Not that it was, you know, they only ran man, but they did run a little bit more man coverage this week. And the Raiders were still beating them. You know, I just think something's just not clicking from Iberflues just not being aggressive enough, not trying to mix up tendencies or disguise enough to the defense just playing passive and missing tackles. I think there's a, you know, it's not all the blame on Matt Iberflues right now. But at the end of the day, you know, he's the coach of the defense just playing passive and missing tackles. I think there's a – it's not all the blame on Matt Eberflus right now, but at the end of the day, he's the coach of the defense. He's pretty much the guy in charge of the entire defense. So when that unit is failing, it does kind of fall on him.

So he's definitely got to do something here. For a team that has an offense that does do a lot of good things – I mean, this past week was a bad example of the offense. But to have an offense that is so unique and always changing up and just doing things to counter opponents, to have a defense that kind of just looks vanilla and bland and kind of just, again, looks like it's just getting beat every single week, it's definitely, you know, not a good look. So, Euroflux has to take some responsibility. I think the players also take responsibility on that defense,

but something has to change. The coverage is not looking great, and the pass rush after the first two games looked really good, but these last two have looked terrible. So, there's definitely going to be some kind of changes on this defense because it's just not working right now. Yeah, I'm looking at the schedule again here, Zach. They play Kansas City next week, and they have the bye, and then Houston. I think maybe having – even though the bye initially we probably thought was a bad idea, maybe with a new quarterback,

and especially how bad this defense is struggling, do you think the bye week could have come at a better time as far as the defense's strategy for that side of the ball? I just wish it was before the Kansas City game, honestly. I know you never want the bye this early in the year, but, you know, again, when you're missing T.Y. Hilton, Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker, those are, you know, again, three of your most valuable players on the team. I mean, you could argue those are the top three most valuable players

on this entire roster. It's tough to recover from that. And, again, it's not excuses. There's no excuse to come out and play the way they did on Sunday, but they need this bye week because you can't really sustain success without you know your star players you're you can have a really good roster and still be a decent team but you're only really as good as what your star players are kind of able to do for you uh so missing those star players and and you know honestly Lee Cooker this year has has really

jumped up to star status but missing those stars those star players I and, you know, honestly, Lee Cooker this year has really jumped up to star status. But missing those star players, I mean, it's just hard to win in the NFL without them. Yeah, definitely. And you see T.Y. Hilton's absence played a huge role on this team, especially Jacoby Bursette because he was only 24-46 for 265-3 touchdowns. But it seemed like without T.Y., he was doubling everyone as far as targets and receptions go so far this season. It was kind of a weird distribution as far as a lot of checkdowns, nine pints.

You had Zach Paschal being the main receiver there. Paris Campbell gets five for 25. And then also Eric Ebron had a horrible day, three drop passes and then that one touchdown late in garbage time. What was your assessment of the passing game yesterday? Honestly, the only positive takeaways, I think, of the

passing game is I think the left side offensive line just with Quentin Nelson Anthony Costanza looked good I think Brissette did some good things overall uh you know maybe not his best game but I think he did do some good things uh but I think Naeem Hines and Zach Paschal have definitely uh stepped up especially Zach Paschal I mean that that's a guy who I I really want to highlight because we all kind of said he might have been a, you know, a roster cut, maybe a roster bubble guy. And he's come out and he's played, you know, much better than Deion Cain,

who the fan base is in love with and even the coaching staff to a degree is in love with. He's played a lot better than Deion Cain. He's played a lot better than Paris Campbell even. So I think Zach Paschal deserves a lot of credit. But the biggest takeaway, honestly, is just these young receivers aren't really, you know, doing anything, and I know it's early in the year, and they're both basically rookies in Deion Kane and Paris Campbell, but at the end of the day, you just got to produce. I mean, they're getting their targets. They're getting their opportunities. They're getting playing time. If you're just not producing, you're not producing, and personally,

I would be surprised if Zach Paschal doesn't just out snap Deion Kane going forward, because I just think he's earned those snaps where, where Kane, you know, he's not really separating and he's not catching the ball thrown his way. It's just not producing. And at the end of the day, you know, the NFL is a production league. If you're not producing, you're not producing. And I think Paschal has done a good job. And I don't think Kane or Campbell has really done much with their targets. Is that where you expect it? I mean, let's say hypothetically T.Y.'s out again on Sunday.

Would you make Paschal like the focal point of the outside offense there? Because if he takes Kane's spot there, maybe you have Parrish, Campbell, and Doyle, and then maybe Ebron a little bit. But do you expect – I mean, I agree with you on Paschal. How much of an underrated piece do you think the Colts have here and a guy not only block but also have games like this. The thing is I wouldn't make him a focal point. That's not even a knock on him at all.

It's because he's just not talented enough to be a focal point of an offense. I don't think he ever will be. But this is a guy I just want to kind of praise him a little bit. He's a guy who went from an undrafted free agent, kind of flew under the radar throughout the whole draft process, undrafted free agent, worked out as a running back and a receiver for the Redskins, got cut, became just a special teams player for the Titans,

just a special teams player for the Colts last year. Then he kind of got forced into action. And he's just this kind of player where you can never really get rid of. I mean, he's a guy who coaches will always love because you tell him to do anything, he'll do it. And he'll do it to the most effort you'll ever get out of a player. If from blocking the special teams to any of that, he's going to do it. And then he's shown the ability to improve. I mean, last year he did some good things and this year he looks even better. So, you know, as a coaching staff, I'm not trying to speak for this coaching staff,

but I know Kane was drafted higher than him. But when you're seeing a guy like Pascal go out there and produce day after day, and he's just shown the work ethic that he has shown these last few years, I think it's just hard not to reward him with more playing time. Kane's just not getting it done, and Pascal is. With Blinkist, you get the unlimited access to read or listen to a massive library of condensed nonfiction books. Go to Blinkist.com slash LockedOn, L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N, and try it free for seven days and get 25% off your first new subscription. Long day at work? Tough day at school? Still stuck at the office?

Treat yourself to the meal you deserve and have your favorite restaurants come to you with DoorDash. DoorDash connects you to your favorite restaurants in your city, and ordering is very easy on the DoorDash app. You can get over 350,000 restaurants in 3,300 different cities on the DoorDash app, and they deliver door-to-door in all 50 states in Canada. Right now, our listeners can get $5 off their first order of $15 or more when you download the DoorDash app and enter promo code LOCKEDON, L-O-C-K-E-D-O, and they get started. That's $5 off your first order when you download the DoorDash app from the App Store and enter promo code LOCKEDON. And don't forget the promo code LOCKEDON for $5 off your first order from DoorDash. Yeah, I think going forward, it's something you have to monitor for sure because Pascal is definitely

out snapping Kane as far as production goes on a better per snap basis there. But let's flip to the other side of the ball here, Zach, because it seems like overall this defense is a real worrisome concern. We had on already Matt Eberflus, but the pass rush is non-existent the last two weeks. They have no sacks, I believe, or maybe they have one on that span. They didn't have any yesterday against Derek Carr.

The linebackers are really misaligning as far as play calls go. Bobbio Karipi and Anthony Walker are stroking very bad in pass coverage. What's the most to yesterday as far as the negatives going on the defensive side? There were plenty for sure, but I think the pass rush is something we have to get monitoring and getting moving forward.

And also just how big of a piece Darius Leonard really is to this defense. I don't really know already. Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of thoughts that come into this defense these last couple weeks. But I think number one, which was the biggest change from last year, because honestly the Colts against the pass last year were not outstanding. Against good quarterbacks they struggled, and against bad quarterbacks they played well.

And that's because they were always able to keep ahead of the sticks. You know, their run defense was just so good that they were able to always keep ahead of the sticks. And even good quarterbacks would be facing, you know, third and nine, third and ten, third and eleven. And even a good quarterback, it's tough to convert those all games so my biggest takeaway honestly uh throughout this this season is just how they can't stop the run uh i don't know if it's defensive tackle uh you know losing al woods i mean i don't think i was that great last year but maybe he was i mean

because the defensive tackles just aren't controlling their gaps i think the linebackers are uh even when when darius leonard was gaps. I think the linebackers are, even when Darius Leonard was out there, I think the linebackers were just missing their reads and missing their alignments and getting blown off the ball by guards and tackles. I just think there's so much wrong with their run defense right now, and that's the biggest thing. I mean, again, last year they were not this outstanding defense, but they kept teams behind the sticks,

and then they were able to just sit at the sticks, tackle them before they got the first down or cause a turnover. And that's why they were so effective. So I think that the biggest thing they got to do, even though we are seeing the pass coverage kind of break down a little bit, the pass rush, not really there. The biggest thing though, is you got to stop the run and keep teams behind the sticks because that's

the key to football is making them have to convert long, long third down opportunities. And we're just not seeing it there. And then when they have these shorter third down opportunities, the defense just not stepping up. So it's kind of just a mess all around. But I really want to see this run defense step back up like it was last year. There's no excuse for how it's fallen off since last season.

Let me ask you this, Zach. I mean, personally, I believe it kind of is. As far as this question goes, I'm going to throw it to you. But I feel like this defense is kind of getting figured out the more teams see it on tape as far as just Ibraflus' tendencies go, and he's not really mixing it up. I'm kind of disappointed, too, because he mentioned he wanted to have some more exotic looks in camp. We just haven't seen that at all yet. Do you think it's – what's your assessment of that?

Because it just seems like that's an issue we're going to have to monitor moving forward here. Yeah, I mean, I understand the thought process of it getting figured out. But honestly, what the Colts do, even what they did last year, was really not this foreign concept. And it really wasn't this – you know, it wasn't anything super unique. It was mostly a cover two, Tampa two defense. They brought a little bit of pressure. They rotated a little bit to man and cover three. But for the most part, it was just a Tampa two, Tampa two defense. They brought a little bit of pressure. They rotated a little bit to man and cover three.

But for the most part, it was just a Tampa two, cover two defense that sat the six when you had third and second and long. Again, it just wasn't really that complex. And now when you can't stop the run and you can't really get any kind of pass rush going, teams can sit back there and they understand how to beat it. So to a degree, I think it is kind of getting the film on it. But it's also guys just not getting it done up front, you know, from pass rush and run defense. So it's not really like this foreign defense that teams just needed a year to figure out.

But, you know, Iberflues has to do something, you know, if it's disguising his coverages a little bit more, maybe playing a little more cover three, a little bit more man, blitzing a little bit more like he did late last season with Kenny Moore and Darius Leonard. I don't really know what the solution is, but, you know, you got to be sure as hell that he needs to figure it out or, you know, Frank Reich and his coaching staff need to sit down and figure it out because there's just a lot of issues right now. It's just not getting it done.

This is not a defense right now that you can win games with. Yeah, you can say that again because it just seems like with this team, they've allowed 31 points to open. That's just looking ahead here, Zach, now to the Kansas City game. It seems like a bad sign, especially now Clayton Gathers is not entering concussion protocol. If Gathers is out along with Malik Hooker on Sunday, are they going to be starting George Odom and Curry Willis,

or do you think they'd move Quincy Wilson to box safety at that point? So I'm not sure what they would do. I think if they don't sign anybody, which would be outrageous if they don't sign anybody, but if they don't sign anybody or they don't bring anybody of note, I think that the plan would likely be Willis will play pretty much all the snaps at free safety, probably play 90% to 100% of the snaps in the game. And then you'll probably have Odom playing majority of the strong safety snaps

and then kind of Quincy, you know, shifting back there, maybe playing there on some third down snaps. But I think they just have to sign a vet off the street, you know, whether it be a known name like George Ioka or someone like that or Mike Mitchell, you know, someone like that, or even, you know, a young guy maybe like Kai Nakua or whatever his name was that they had here in camp during the off season. They'd say those kind of guys, I could see it too, just kind of like a special team or just in case of injury, but I would like it to be kind of more of a proven guy who can kind of provide some depth there.

I just think they have to sign somebody. You can't really go into the game saying, you know, Quincy Wilson and Mark Hotel are emergency safeties because that could be just a recipe for disaster on the back end, especially against Kansas City. Yeah, Patrick Mahomes is on pace for 6,000 yards passing, which is crazy. He's probably on his way to another MVP award. Let me ask you this, Zach. Do you feel like Mahomes is maybe the most talented quarterback we've really seen before? I mean, not ever, but like,, so to say, like, his talents

and just the way he can sling the ball is just, like, way ahead of everyone on this tier if we're talking about elite quarterbacks. I would say right now in the NFL for sure. I know when I first started watching football when I was younger and Aaron Rodgers was kind of that same way. Obviously not to the same degree where he's just slinging, you know, 500 yards a week and touchdowns. But, you know, Rodgers was kind of like this talent-wise younger in his career.

But I think right now, I mean, it's just Mahomes on a different level when it comes to quarterback play. You know, from arm strength to accuracy to improvisation to footwork. I mean, he just does it all. This is definitely the best quarterback in football and it's the best quarterback the Colts are going to see this year, next year, whatever they see him in. He's going to be the best quarterback for a while, I think, in this league.

Yeah, Mahomes is certainly at the top of the tier right now as far as NFL quarterbacks go. Looking into the game here, Zach, the over-under, I believe, is 56.5 or 57.5, so they're expecting a high-scoring game here. The spread is 9.5 for the Chiefs as the Colts are almost a 10-point underdog there. Do you think that the Colts are in a position here where if they don't get any stops early, it's going to get really ugly pretty fast? Yeah, but I think you can say that about anybody against the Chiefs.

You know, if you give up a couple scores early against the Chiefs, it's all over, not because they have this great defense, but just because if you give them a homeomes the ability to play with a lead, you're not going to come back. So, I mean, I think the overall game plan going into this game against Kansas City is you just have to grind the game out. You know, you have to control the clock. You don't have 10-minute drives with Marlon Mack

and Jordan Wilkins leading the way. Don't let Mahomes touch the ball. You kind of got to play some scared football to a degree where you're just trying to play keep away from him and kind of score on really long touchdown drives. But that's the only way you can really beat him. I mean, he's a darn good quarterback with a great offense around him and some talented skill players. I mean, it's going to be a tough game regardless. I don't know if the Colts can pull this one off, but the way to beat

this game is definitely just control the clock and don't let Mahomes touch the ball. Yeah, that's the big thing is time possession in this game. If Marlon Mack is dinged up, it seems like he might be because he didn't play much at all in the second half, and Frank Rick kind of shrugged it off there that he wasn't that injured. But I feel like Mack's been kind of hurt and nagging with an injury since week two, Zach. What do you think they need to do here to really control that time possession

if Mack is dinged up and not 100% next week? I'll probably just have a steady rotation, maybe get Wilkins out there a little bit more. Because Wilkins, you know, even though the yards per carry has kind of gone down a little bit since the Titans game, I do think that he has, you know, he's played pretty well this year. He's shown some things.

He has some good vision. So get him a little bit more carries in the running game. But, you know, if Mac's even somewhat good to go, he's still your best option on the team. So I wouldn't be too worried. Again, I don't think Reich was too worried, so I'm not terribly worried either. But, you know, if he even is like 70%,

maybe dress Jonathan Williams and play him a little bit as well. They do have a good, you know, even though Williams gets scratched every week, they do have four good backs on this team. So they definitely can use a rotation there. And then another note, you know, even though Williams gets crashed every week, they do have four good backs on this team. So they definitely can use a rotation there. And then another note, I think, looking ahead here to the Chiefs is, I feel

like their defense has sort of improved this year. I mean, they added Tyron Matthew in a little bit, but can the Colts exploit this defense here? I don't have the confidence personally after yesterday, but do you have confidence in this team at all, Zach, that they could win in a shootout? I don't think they can win in a shootout, honestly. I'm not super, I mean, I wouldn't say they can't win in a shootout, but, you know, I don't think there's very much a likelihood,

especially if, you know, even if T.Y. Hilton plays this week, he's probably not going to be at 100%. I just don't see this team being that shootout type team. You know, if we had Andrew Luck, I would definitely say, hey, they could win in a shootout. But it's not even to discount Jacoby Brissett. He's just not on the level that Andrew Luck was, and he probably never will be. You know, it's just not the type of team this is anymore. This team with Brissett is more of a grind out a win.

He'll take a couple shots here and there. He'll convert in the red zone kind of team, which isn't a bad team at all. I just, you know, you can't get into a shootout with Kansas City. You've got to control the clock and kind of slow the game down and keep the ball in his hands. That's the way to win this game. Remember the days when you're always ready to go? Now you can increase performance to get that extra confidence in bed.

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Yeah, I really personally believe that it's going to take a lot to win in this game. I think a lot of people are expecting it to be a blowout loss for the Colts, and what would it say for this team to keep it competitive, Zach? What would you say against Mahomes and against this high-potent offense, what you would do on the defensive side, I think, as you're Matt Eberflus, because you can't play zone coverage. If you're not going to mix up against Mahomes, he's going to figure out pretty fast and score a lot of points on you.

Yeah, so everything I've been told, and the recipe to beat them is not really a recipe that the Colts have been doing well this year. But when you watch the Lions game, the Lions run a lot of cover one, a lot of man coverage. They like to kind of one-on-one the receivers on the outside with the safety over top or make two safeties over the top. But they like a lot of man coverage. And what I was told by a couple of Chiefs guys when I was talking to them is players like Demarcus Robinson and Hardman, who they just drafted, they really struggle in and out of their routes and separating and man coverage. So I honestly think the game plan for me going in would be study what the Lions were doing and kind of try to emulate it. Because even though the Chiefs put up, you know, 30 something points

in that game, the Lions were in that game the whole time because their defense was playing well. So I would try to emulate maybe their cover one that they were running against them and try to bring some pressure in some unique ways. But you kind of got to take advantage with Tyree Kill being out, you know, playing some man coverage, kind of pressing these guys, maybe paying a lot of attention to Travis Kelsey. But, again, the biggest thing with Mahomes is you're not going to stop him. You're going to have to contain him, which is fine because that's what the Lions did last week.

You know, they held him 250 yards and no touchdowns. Probably the best performance we've ever seen against Mahomes from a defense. But that's just the way you got to do it. You just got to contain him and just not let him hit those big passes down the field. And I think you have a chance. Yeah, that's the big thing is the pass game and how you can just contain them because you're not going to be able to stop Mahomes. You're going to have to maybe put up at least in the high 20s for them to win this game probably alongside maybe the LA game that we saw 30-24 it's going to be at least in the 24 to 28 maybe even the 31 point range for the Colts to win this one on Sunday Zach what would you say are your three main keys to this game because it seems like at this point the Colts not only need a lot to bounce

their way but I think they're gonna also need an outreeled performance from Jacoby Bursette. Yeah, you know, honestly, I feel like I said the same ones every week, but I'll kind of change them up a little bit. One, I'm going to say is time possession. Control the time possession. Have it be, you know, don't have it be like the Colts have an extra minute of time possession over them. They have to have almost all of the time possession in this game.

Just eat that clock on offense. Do not let Mahomes touch the ball. Time sessions won. Control the turnover battle. You cannot lose a turnover battle against the Chiefs because you give Mahomes extra possessions, you know, you're not going to win. So that's number two. And then number three, it kind of goes with the time session,

but you've got to, you know, control the ground game. Outrush them, kind of, you know, have more carries in them, have more yards on the ground in them. You've got to win in all those areas if you want to have a chance against the Chiefs, though. Yeah, I really think those areas against the Chiefs are going to be big because you just see how potent this offense is and as well as the improved defense.

It's going to take a lot for the Colts to win this one here. I really think they could keep it close, Zach. I think the 9.5 point spread is pretty realistic though. So I'm going to go with 34-24. Maybe the Colts get some garbage time points at the end here. I personally don't think it's going to be that close on Sunday when they go to Kansas City with all the injuries they have. And it seems to be piling up even more now with the Clayton Gathers news. Yeah, my score prediction, I'm going to go 42-24. You know, again again i like this colts team i think they're a talented team but the chiefs are just an unreal animal you know they're the probably the

second best team in football uh and mahomes is just you know a different player so uh yeah 42 24 would be my score prediction this week before i let you go here zach before we finish things up i wanted to ask you about the afc south here because I know we're predicting a loss here. So saying they are 2-3 heading into their bye week and the AFC South now is tied at 2-2 overall, everyone is, the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans. How big of a game is it going to be after that bye week for Houston now and all the division games moving forward here?

Because to be honest, I really think a 9-win AFC South team is going to get it done here. I think 9 wins is probably the barrier that gets the Colts into the playoffs as the AFC South winner because the division doesn't look that good this year. So what would you say how critical those games are coming up? Oh, they're big. I mean, division games are huge. I mean, if you can win 50% of your division game, you know,

60% of your division games, you always have a chance to make the playoffs. So those division games are huge, and there's no excuse going to Houston. You know, this week, I'm not saying there's an excuse this week, but going against Kansas City, kind of injured, limping into the bye week, I think none of us really expect to win. But coming off a bye week, you're going to have some players healthy going against a division opponent that you faced three times last year and played pretty well against. There's no excuse in that game. So the Colts have to come out and play well if they want any chance to make the playoffs this season.

Zach, appreciate the time. As always, you can follow him on Twitter at ZachKicks2 and read his work over at Stampede. But we appreciate the time, Zach. We'll talk again next week after the game. Awesome, man. Awesome.