Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - LOCKED ON COLTS - 9/9 - Projecting the Colts 2016 Record, Interview with Matt Dery of Locked on Lions

Episode Date: September 9, 2016

Will the #Colts finish with a winning record this season? Can they get off on the right foot against the #Lions this Sunday? Matt Dery (@DerySpeaks) of Locked on Lions stops by to talk Jim Caldwell, where the #Lions will attempt to exploit the Colts and what the general expectations are in Detroit for Week 1. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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As always, I'm your host, Matt Dainley, each and every weekday. Today we're coming to you on Friday, September 9th, and it's our last show of the week. And we are going to project the Colts record for the 2016 season. And we are also going to have Matt Derry from Locked On Lions join us towards the end of the show. Let's get started through the Colts' first three games under Chuck Pagano and with Andrew Luck. The Colts are 5-7 over the last four seasons in their first three games of the year. Now their records at home have been pretty decent. At least they were in 2012, 13, and 14. 7-1, 6-2, 6-2, and then last year they were 4-4. As we know that they struggled a little bit. Luck struggled and then Hasselbeck was also under center for a good

majority of that. But we are going to look at each game real briefly. We're going to get through this together and we're going to go through and I'm going to give you guys who real briefly. We're going to get through this together and we're going to go through and I'm going to give you guys who I think the Colts are going to beat and where they may face some trouble and find a loss. We're going to start right here in week one against the Lions and the Lions are better than people give them credit for. The Colts notoriously start slow and they simply have too many injuries right now in week one. I think the Lions are the better team going into week one. I think the Colts are going to drop week one. As I've said just seconds ago, the Colts do start out slow.

This isn't going to be much of a shocker if they do come up with an L. They seem to have a little bit of a lack of preparedness in the first week of the season, and it's not something new. But start knowing one against the Lions. In week two against the Broncos, if you watched the first game of the year against the Panthers, the Broncos' defense is for real. The Broncos have shown that they have a really good running game as well, and their offensive line is pretty good in the running game. Defense has some holes. Not enough for the Colts to consistently beat that coverage,

though the Colts lose week two, 0-2 starting out the season. Doesn't look good. Everybody relax. Week three against the Chargers. Chargers also are better than people think, but unless Gordon has a breakout game, then the Colts will probably be pinning their ears back and stunning as often as they can to get to Philip Rivers. Rivers can take the game over, but he won't this time. Colts win at home against San Diego. Colts are 1-2. Week four, it's technically an away game against the Jaguars in London.

The Jaguars did beat the Bills last year in London, but this game is a bit of a coin flip with how each team reacts to such ridiculous travel schedule. I'm giving the better quarterback the nod here. Colts win. They're now 2-2. Week five against the Bears. The Bears are really struggling with finding an identity. I think at this point in the season, they're a rough squad, at least it looks like on paper, but by now, theoretically, the Colts get Arthur Jones back, Monte Davis most likely, and will almost certainly have at least had a chance

to have their offensive line back in order. The Colts take a Bears team that is very much in the middle of a rebuild. Colts are 3-2 after Week 5. Week 6 at Houston, the Colts are 3-1 under Pagano in Houston, but their defense is better and have a ton of weapons offensively, especially with the draft that they've gotten fuller and some other guys. They look good. As a complete roster, the Texans are superior to the Colts

and have the better coach, in my opinion, and it gets them by in this one. Colts lose at Houston. Week seven versus the Titans. I'm one who believes in Marcus Mariota's ceiling. I think he's going to be a really good quarterback in the league, and I think that's going to really make the AFC South very interesting over the next several years, and think he'll be very good this season as well. But I think with Malarkey at the helm, it takes the Titans until the second half of the season to start getting their footing. Believe it or not, the Colts have a better coach in this matchup.

Colts win against the Titans in week seven. Week eight versus the Chiefs. Plain and simply, the Chiefs at the moment are a better team in every facet of the matchup. Alex Smith can pick a part of defense. We've seen it happen before. And the Chiefs defense is the top third NFL unit, and that spells real trouble for this Colts team.

Colts lose week eight against Kansas City. Week nine at the Packers. In 2012, Colts pulled out the ultimate upset in Lucas Oil Stadium with Bruce Harrians acting as the head coach at the time. This is in Lambeau in November against a very good Packers team. This is just too tall a task, I think, for the Colts. Colts drop one to the Packers in week nine. Colts week 10 by. Love where their buy is at, though. Later in the season allows an extra week for guys to get healthy. Hopefully that it works out in our favor and there's no serious injuries where they can't just get over some soreness and such going into week 11. But they play at home against the Titans in week 11.

As I mentioned, the Titans should be considerably better by now, but the Colts are very good at home in the division. This could go either way and will absolutely be a very close game, pending any overarching injuries to one or the other's playmakers. But this is a Colts bread and butter at this time with the Titans in week 11. And real quick, if you're looking to get stories and insight on the entire NFL all in one show, be sure to check out the Locked On NFL podcast with Matt Williamson.

And for all of you fantasy diehards out there, Vinny Iyer will give you everything you need to be successful in your leagues with the Locked On Fantasy Football podcast. As always, subscribe to your favorite Locked On podcasts and throw them a rating and review to let them know what you think about them. Also, if your target audience is men in the age range of 18 to 50 and want to advertise on the show, you may want to listen to this. Through Edison Research, they found that 65% of podcast listeners said that ads increased their likelihood of purchasing a product, while 45% said they often visit a sponsor's website after hearing a message.

This is you. If this is who you're trying to target, email the show at lockedoncoltspod at gmail.com and we'll get the ball rolling. All right, now back to week 12 against the Steelers. Colts do not play well, do not match up well, and are not coached well against the Steelers. And their few games in the new era has just been ugly. Either way, if Roethlisberger at this point in the season is under center, the Colts won't have an answer for that offense, despite any suspensions that they may have looming or anything like that. Colts lose in week 12 at home against the Steelers. Week 13 at the Jets, Todd Bowles is a very good coach. Jets have a great defense. At least they have the potential to be a great defense. And they have a capable offense, but the Colts are a better team, and Fitzpatrick always turns the ball over against

the Colts at some point in the game. And it's typically late in the fourth quarter, allowing the Colts to get the upper hand. Colts win week 13 against the Jets. Week 14, at home against the Texans. The Colts absolutely own the Texans in Lucasville Stadium, and it almost seems as though it's in the organization's head at this point. The Colts take this one split the season with the Texans in week 14. Week 15 at the Vikings, Vikes defense is the real deal, and the offense is solid regardless of the quarterback. It's mid-December, it's in Minnesota, and that doesn't bode well for the Colts. They're an indoors team and the Colts are going to take the L there at week 15 at the Vikings. Week 16 at Oakland, two weeks in a row on the road and they run into a great defense, a very good offense that's on the rise in a way,

but the Colts are away from home. I think this could be a great game and come down to the wire, but the Raiders are one of the scariest teams in the AFC, whether anybody realizes it at this point or not, especially at this point in the season, they're hunting for their AFC West title, and they're going to be in the running for it, there's no doubt. And if they're healthy, the Colts could drop this one, but I give them the benefit of the doubt with luck going against their secondary. Week 16, Colts take one in Oakland. Week 17, Colts hosting the Jaguars. Colts finish off the year in the battle probably at this point for their postseason lives and maybe even Pagano's job. They're going to take

this win, finish the season 9-7. Now, I'm a little surprised that this is where I got to with their schedule, but without actually going through each game, I wasn't far off just in my own gut feelings throughout the past several weeks of about where they'd finish. I thought they could go anywhere between 7-9 and 10-6, depending on a lot of different circumstances, and actually ended up falling right in the hole without looking at previous games, just picking and moving. And the AFC South will be won by a 9-10 win team. So despite a less than impressive looking record, the Colts are still in the running theoretically for the title

and a playoff berth at this point. So it's not all gloom and doom, Colts Nation. Colts are going to be competitive in every game this year. Using the disclaimer, if they're healthy, is almost pointless to even bring up. With the Colts the way they are now, you have to assume that they're not going to be significantly more healthy throughout the season.

They're going to be competitive because they've got Andrew Luck. They've got some other weapons. Their front line and their defense is pretty decent. Hopefully their linebackers will grow into their role. Hopefully the secondary will get healthy. Hopefully Antonio Cromartie can contribute substantially to this secondary. It'd be nice to get everybody healthy and have him actually playing well as well. So here shortly, we're going to have on Matt Derry from Locked On Lions. And I want to remind you to get on iTunes and rate and review the show, Locked On Colts. Really appreciate it.

All the listeners, all the reviews and ratings. You guys are great. Please keep it up. Every little bit we get helps a bunch. Matt Derry is next. As promised, we have on the line Matt Derry of Locked On Lions. You can catch him on Twitter at Derry Speaks. Matt, how are you doing today, man?

Doing well, Matt. Looking forward to Sunday and getting the season kicked off for sure. Absolutely. I definitely appreciate you joining us tonight on my pod. And I wanted to thank you for extending the invitation for me to be on yours the other day. It was good stuff. It was. It was fun.

And I think you and I are kind of in agreement maybe on where this week could be headed. It's very interesting. It is interesting. It's scary on my end. I'm thinking that you're probably a little more favorable for the possibility of the end result here. Now let's get going. I wanted to ask you about Caldwell first of all. How is he feeling about coming back to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time as head coach?

You know, Jim Caldwell does not say much. He doesn't give much to the media. He was asked about it earlier in the week about, hey, you know, were you giving a fair shake at Indianapolis? Because certainly took the team to the Super Bowl, and then boom, Peyton Manning gets hurt. Season goes down the drain. Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky, guys like that, he had to trot out at quarterback.

I think there were some others, too. You know, he said he got a fair take. He has really no hard feelings toward anybody there. He knew that certain changes were going to be made. And, you know, once a couple, you know, his safety net and Bill Pullian and others were gone, I think he was okay with it. He ended up going to Baltimore and having some success there as an assistant coach.

So there were really no hard feelings from Caldwell. And you know what? To be honest, Matt, even if there were, he wouldn't say it publicly. He's not going to give you much in terms of a lot of quality when it comes to sound bites. Yeah, that's not really his style. And he was actually pretty successful in Baltimore. A lot of people were talking him up. And I think that that led in large part to him getting the job in Detroit.

It did. You know, his work with Joe Flacco, and then he was the quarterback's coach, and then when Cam Cameron got let go, Caldwell comes in, the offense got better. And, you know, he's always been a pretty good offensive mind, and there's one thing here in Detroit that we know, and now heading into year three, is that the players love him. Bob Quinn, the new general manager, has taken over, and I would say a good 90% of the fan base is like,

all right, well, that's it for Jim Caldwell. He allowed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to throw a Hail Mary with really no semblance of organization defensively on the last play when everybody in the stadium knew that Rodgers was going to throw one of the to the end zone except for caldwell who thought they were going to lateral play it uh he had that moment you know you can go back to obviously the cold stays in the jets playoff game with botching timeouts and and and everything else so he's had his share of of oops moments as a head coach and he looks at times on the sideline like a deer in headlights. But every player I've talked to, both current and former,

have all said the same thing. We love playing for this guy. He came into Detroit, and one of the first things he did was he took each position group out to dinner. He paid, and he talked to them as men about their families, about things they like to do in the city, spiritual stuff. And they loved it because they were playing earlier for Jim Schwartz, who was more of a, look, I'm just your coach and that's it type of thing.

And the guys would run through a wall for Caldwell, and I think that's one of the reasons why he's back. Yeah, I think that was similar sentiments when he was here in Indy as well. It just cracks me up, the looks on his face. You can never, ever tell what's going on in his head, whether he's utterly confused or whether he's happy or sad. You just don't know. He's very stone-faced. Not much changes with his looks. Another thing I wanted to ask you about was the, we kind of spoke on this uh the other day on your on your show eric ebron was a full participant which i wasn't expecting i don't

know that you were or not but also golden tate was limited in practices uh thus far this week otherwise otherwise the lions are are pretty healthy is that right yeah i'm uh you and i talked i think on tuesday and ebron I didn't think was going to play this week. All of a sudden, Wednesday, a full participant. Thursday, a full participant. He injured his ankle in the public workout at Ford Field before the first preseason game. Ian Rappaport of NFL Network, who I like a lot,

had on my shows before, rap sheet said that, hey, it's an Achilles. He might be done for a year. Tornado was just an ankle. They dodged a huge bullet there. And, look, is Eric Ebron a great football player? No. Has he been a disappointment at the 10th pick when guys like Odell Beckham,

Zach Martin, and others were drafted behind him? Yes. It was a colossal error on Martin Mayhew's part to pass on some guys. Aaron Donald, need players from the Lions to take Ebron. With that being said, it's not Eric's fault. I think the Lions expect him to have a big year. As you and I discussed on Lockdown Lions the other night, he could be a major factor Sunday because if the Colts linebackers are as bad

as you're telling me they are in coverage, that will be a target for Matthew Stafford. Golden Tate is healthy, was back at practice today. So really, to be honest, everybody has a clean bill of health on this football team here. Yeah, I noticed that. It seemed really, really blank when I'm looking at their injury report. There wasn't a whole lot of people on there. And, you know, I didn't pay much attention unless it said that Golden Tate wasn't going to have a broken leg that he's probably going to play. He's just that kind of guy. So no, he's usually out there. So he'll be out there. Yeah, he's a tough cookie for sure, and we expect him to be out there too. With the Colts' situation the way it is,

outside of what you've heard from me, where do you think Jim Bob Cooter and the Lions' offense will be looking to exploit the Colts' defense? I think regardless of whether they were healthy or not, the Lions know that the Colts aren't exactly a team that's going to send a lot of guys in a blitz package. In the 3-4 that the Colts have shown, I think there have been some games, and I know you watch them all.

I've seen many of them, too, that they just don't get to the quarterback enough. This is a football team. The Lions, where they rely on Stafford, it seems like every week it's, OK, we've got to establish the run. We've got to get a run game going. By the third quarter, it's just Stafford slinging the ball 40 times and everything goes out the window.

With that being said, there's a lot of weapons coming out of that backfield. Amir Abdullah, Theo Riddick is a guy I really want you to watch, Matt. He may have a field day against your linebackers. I was talking to George Bimmer today and he was telling me that's a name that continued to come up with the Colts coaches

all day, basically, that he was somebody they had to stop. Yep. So, you know, he's very good out of the backfield. So, I do think that, you know, one of the Lions' strengths is certainly spreading the ball around, going up against, you know, that's been a weakness for the Colts,

plus with Bonte Davis out and Arthur Jones. I mean, this could be something the Lions could exploit. And also, I think on the other side of the ball, you know, when you talk about the Lions' defense, you know, even Jim Irsay telling JMV the other day, hey, look, you know, we're worried, concerned about the offensive line. We think it's better. Well, you know, Ziggy Ansah is a premier pass rusher.

Devin Taylor is pretty good on the other side. Tyron Walker, one of the tackles, is back and healthy. They feel good about him. Gilberry, another defensive end, had a good preseason getting to the quarterback. So I think the Lions feel like they can get to Andrew Luck and maybe exploit the offensive line of the Colts. So those are two positives in the Lions' check column there. Yeah, that was the next question I was going to ask you.

Along the lines, and if you include Helody Nata right there and A'shaun Robinson, the possibilities of that defensive line giving the Colts' offensive line an issue most of the day is very real. And I think that a national perception is that Darius Slay is the only weapon on defense. That's definitely not the case, is it? No, I honestly think that the Lions have three top flight defensive players on their roster.

I really like Darius Slay as a corner for sure. DeAndre Levy is back and healthy. And people forget he's on this football team. It's almost like, oh, yeah, well, last year they played without him for most of the year, if not all of the year. So, you know, you can scratch him off the list. No, he's back and healthy. And if DeAndre Levy is available, which all indications are he will be,

that's a really, really good football player on the outside linebacker. I think Tahir Whitehead, who's going to play the middle a little bit, the middle linebacker, he's a guy that has gotten a lot better and I think can really be a force at middle linebacker. So they've got some guys there. Like I said, Slay, Onsa, and Levy are all really good. And I think Ziggy's a guy that could get up to 15, 16, 17 sacks this year. You mentioned A'shaun Robinson, who was a second-round pick.

He's buried right now because they have plenty of depth at defensive tackle and defensive end. So they're carrying like 10 or 11 guys. And I think that'll be a strong suit for this football team. Now seeing extremes on both sides of the argument for the most part, but where do you expect the Lions to excel? And where do you see them struggling throughout the season, and what are your expectations for the team in general?

Well, I mean, my expectations are I still think it's going to be a year of observation where the general manager, Bob Quinn, and I like to call it a year of Bob-servation, because I think Bob Quinn is going to look at this roster and go, all right, here are a couple of mainstays that have been here, and oh, by the way, they weren't brought in by me, so I'm going to put my own furniture in my house. They're out. Now, I don't know if that's going to be Matthew Stafford.

I don't think Stafford's going anywhere. I think ownership loves him, and I think he'll retire a lion. But there could be some other guys. Amir Abdullah was not drafted by Bob Quinn. Let's say he's got fumble problems and he can't break tackles and he's too small. Maybe Quinn gets rid of him. Some guys in the offensive line are, you know, Laken Tomlinson was a first-round pick last year.

He will start at left guard. I don't think he's very good yet. If Quinn doesn't think he's very good, period, he could be shipped out. So, you know, he drafted a center in Graham Glasgow in the middle rounds with a center in Travis Swanson who was just drafted two years earlier as the incumbent. So there are some moving parts there. And I think it's probably going to be a 7-9, 8-8 football team. But let's say they look better than they did a year ago and they move out some players and they move in another coach.

Then you could build on that. And I think that that's what I'm kind of looking at. But with that being said, here's Teddy Bridgewater getting hurt. Here's Green Bay having to lose Josh Sitton in the division. Here are the Bears banged up again and young. So I looked at the NFC today, and I touched on it on Lockdown Lions. It's not like outside of Arizona, Seattle, maybe Green Bay, that there's all these world-beating teams in the NFC.

Maybe the Lions sneak in at 9-7 as a wild card, but a lot has to happen. To go back to your first question, I think the offensive line is going to be a problem. They've never run blocked in years. Like I said, the left side with a rookie left tackle in Taylor Decker, who I think is a pretty good player, but he's a rookie. Next to him, a second-year guy in Tomlinson in the center last year,

Travis Swanson. I didn't think it was anything special. So they're going to be running the football. They're going to be running it to the right side behind Larry Warford, who's their best offensive lineman, right guard, and Riley Reif from left tackle to right tackle. But even he's not that great. So I do think the O-line is a concern.

I think Stafford's going to be hit a few times this year. They've got to keep Stafford healthy and upright. So that's a key. And I also think there will be some growing pains in the secondary with some veterans kind of moved out in some younger corners back there next to Slay. But some of those guys can play a little bit. A linebacker, the third linebacker, Kyle Van Nooy,

not sure how much he's going to play, but he's a bit of a concern. But all in all, I think it's a better team than people nationally give him credit for. Yeah, I think that they're being kind of beholden to their past years of efforts on that side of the ball, and it's just kind of like the narrative now for them. But as I'm looking through and seeing the kind of playmakers that they've got, they have real weapons on that side of the ball just as well as they have it on the offensive side of the ball.

Now before I get to the final question and ask you what your thoughts are for the outcome on Sunday, what does Caldwell have to do to keep his job? You know, they've made a point of saying nothing. Bob Quinn says I'm not going to judge that right now or discuss that right now. He's not going to put any sort of limit on it. I think Caldwell wants to see better football played. He knows, and we haven't even mentioned this, but without Calvin Johnson now, who was your top target and a guy everybody targeted on the other team,

but I think Marvin Jones and Golden Tate and Anquan Bolden, even Andre Roberts and Riddick and some of these other guys, I think they'll be okay. It's not like Calvin last year caught 100 balls for 2,000 yards. He was slowing down a little bit. With that being said, there are some glaring mistakes

that are made by Jim Caldwell that fans can see, and I know that Lions, Brass, I'm sure at the very top have seen when it comes to X's and O's, when it comes to throwing a challenge flag, when it comes to going to London and just being obliterated by a very, you know, above average Kansas City team last year. It was a bad look.

The Hail Mary game against Green Bay. You know, you come out against, you know, Thanksgiving against the Eagles last year, and you just absolutely load up on Philly, and Calvin goes crazy, and Stafford, and everybody nationally can see how good they play. And then the next week, they go to St. Louis and get their doors

blown off. Some of that is coaching. If they go 9-7 and all the guys go back into Quinn's office at the end of the year and go, hey, we're playing for this coach, and he deserves an extension, who knows? This is his third year, so it is a four-year deal. But I think if it's more like six and 10, seven and nine should be better than they are type of situation, then I think Bob Quinn will pull the trigger. Yeah, that's a dangerous area just about

any time now for any coach, regardless of what their contract says. So where are you at for Sunday? What are your thoughts? We've talked on both shows now. We've both given our insights to each other's teams. What's your thoughts for Sunday? What's the outcome? I mean, being here in Detroit, Matt, where they've won one playoff game in 58 years,

I mean, one playoff win in 58 years. Think about that. Think about Andrew Luck's one, what, four or five? I mean, already in three or four or five years? I mean, it's crazy. With that being said, you know, the Lions opening the season on the road, most people, I think, are going,

if they're going to Indy, forget it. Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Frank Gore, Moncrief, no way. Well, I don't think the Colts are that good. I think losing Vontae Davis is huge. Jones being out, Mewhart, I mean, there's a lot of pretty good players going to be in street clothes on Sunday. I'm picking the Lions to win.

I know I think people probably here think I'm crazy, but if they can just bottle up luck when he's out of the pocket and not let him scramble for 10 or 12 and keep those at 5 or 6 rather than 15, 16, I think the Lions will win. I think they're going to put up some points as long as Stafford has some time. And, you know, I know Jim Irsay said the other day we've got to score more than 24 points.

I do believe the Lions will have 34 and then win this football game actually on Sunday. I think timing is the one. Sometimes it's not who you play, but when you play them, I think they're catching the Colts at the right time. And I believe on your show I said the same thing about 24 points. I later saw the interview with Ursae, and I thought, wow, you don't get too many times where you kind of hit the nail on the head

with somebody within the organization like that. On the other hand, it's Ursae. Maybe here it is, Matt. Maybe here it is. On the other hand, though's Ursa. Maybe here it is, Matt. On the other hand, though, it's Ursa and not a coach. So I kind of take it with a grain of salt there. But thank you for joining me, Matt. I really appreciate it.

This is Matt Derry from LockedOnLions, and you can catch him on Twitter at Derry Speaks. Matt, great stuff. I really appreciate it. And best of luck this Sunday. All right, Matt. Thank you. All right. We'll talk soon. Thanks Sunday. All right, man. Thank you. All right.

We'll talk soon. Thanks, man. Thanks, buddy. See ya. Very good stuff there from Matt. Uh, looks like we're in for quite a battle on this first, uh, this first week of the season. Uh, as always, I'd like to remind you to go out and rate and review the show. Uh, thank you for being with me on this first week. Again, you guys have been great. I appreciate all of the listeners, the questions, and so on and so forth. We are done for the week, so stay tuned next week, and I will talk to you all Monday on Locked on Colts. We'll see you next time.