Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Predicting Over/Unders for Colts vs. Jets

Episode Date: September 26, 2020

On today's episode, Anthony Smith of Coast to Coast Scouting joins Evan to go over some over/unders for the Colts' Week 3 matchup against the New York Jets.First up, though, we discuss Anthony's thoughts on Indy's 1-1 start. Is the defense legit? Why Philip Rivers and Jonathan Taylor have exceed expectations so far. Who will replace Parris Campbell's speed at WR?Then, we dive into the three keys for a Colts win on Sunday. In a matchup where it should be a double-digit victory on paper, Anthony lays out what he would do to make sure that happens.Finally, we go over some player props via DraftKings as well as predict the game against the spread. Will Taylor exceed 77.5 rushing yards? Is T.Y. Hilton poised for a big outing? And there's a lot more bets to parse through as well.All of this, plus so much more, as we go through the lead up to Week 3 one last time! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello everybody, welcome back to the latest episode of Locked On Colts, the party locked on podcast network. Today's always your host, Evan Sutter. Very special guest for today's episode as we're our last episode here on Friday before the Colts play the Jets on Sunday, hopefully move to 3-1 in the season. You're joined by Anthony Smith.

He is the lead editor and co-founder of Coast to Coast Scouting. You can follow him on Twitter as well, at pant underscore the Oreo. Anthony, how are you doing today, man? Doing all right, man. I got NBA playoffs on in the background and talking some Colts football, so no complaints. Yeah, absolutely. A really interesting start to the year for this Colts team, I should say.

I mean, many people maybe thought they'd start one-on-one with the Jaguars and Vikings as the first two games. I thought personally they'd be 2-0 at this point. But looking at the first two weeks so far, really a Jekyll and Hyde type of week for them as far as a really awful game defensively against the Jaguars, a huge bounce back defensively against the Vikings. We're down 11 points.

The offense has been pretty consistent so far outside of Red Sun situations. What's been your assessment so far of the Colts so far this season? Yeah, I think you put it perfectly, really. Like you said, Jekyll and Hyde. I mean, we're doing staff picks over at Coast to Coast, What's been your assessment so far of the Colts so far this season? Yeah, I think you put it perfectly, really. Like you said, Jekyll and Hyde, I mean, we're doing staff picks over at Coast to Coast, and I picked the Colts both weeks and felt rather confident. Of course, that week one loss to the Jaguars, it seems like they, over the past couple years, have increasingly become a thorn in our side.

But a really good bounce back win against the Vikings. That kind of feels more like who the Colts really are. So, you know, I hope to see some more consistency, but you know, the Jaguars, like I said, they've been a little bit of a nuisance lately, so can't be too upset at one-on-one through two weeks. Yeah, I definitely agree with you there. And looking at this Colts team, like I mentioned, the offense has been pretty consistent so far. I think it's fair to say. I know many people try to box sports, but they don't watch the Colts that much and say, Phillip Burris has thrown three interceptions through two games.

But also, if you look at the box score as well, Phillip Burris completes 78% of his passes through two weeks on over 50 attempts. That's third in the NFL right now behind Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson. And that interception against Minnesota was Moe Alley-Cox's fault. Moe dropped that pass. And from there, of course, Alley-Cox had a monster game, and Phil really settled down himself.

But I think so far, at least through two games, and that's a small sample size Anthony, I think Rivers has exceeded expectations so far for this Colts as a quarterback. Yeah. You know, even though, you know, the Colts are sitting at 500 right now, I don't put really hardly any of that blame on, on Phillip Rivers, you know, two picks, you know, in week one going against, you know, what recently at least has been a pretty strong, um, Jacksonville secondary, you know, you hate

to see him force, you know, some things into double coverage, but that's really who Phillip Rivers has been, you know, over the course of his career. Um, like I said, the one pick, you know, uh, last week against the Vikings, not really his fault. Don't, don't put too much stock into that. I think he has been, you know, just as good or better, you know, than I could have hoped. I think he's the guy that, you know, when is called upon, you know, we can see him put up for 350, 400 yards, you know, but as of right now, I think he's doing, you know,

exactly what he needs to be for what is a run first team. Do you like the balance so far? I know it's kind of been unbalanced in the first couple of games. We saw a high passing attack, 46 pass for Rivers in week one, which I think was well, way too much for Rivers, but we saw it really bounce back to normal here in week two, where Jonathan Taylor had 28 total touches, the ground game at 10 more total attempts than the passing game. I think Rivers had around 25 passes total. Do you think it should stay around that number? I think it's maybe more in the middle there for where it should be around 25, 30. Do you like the offense balance so far?

Yeah, it's going to be a little bit game dependent. I think we know that Frank and Frank Reich and Chris Ballard want to run the ball. You know, obviously things were a little bit of a wrench thrown into the, into the game plan with, with Marlon Mack going down, you know, early in week one. So, you know, I think that they're a little bit hesitant to, you know, give Jonathan carry or Jonathan Taylor, you know, I think that they're a little bit hesitant to, you know, give Jonathan

carry or Jonathan Taylor, you know, 30 plus carries a game. You know, he had 26, uh, in this, in this last game against the Vikings. I think that we'll see, you know, Philip hover probably around 25 to 30, uh, attempts per game, uh, depending on, you know, how the, how the game flow goes, but I'm hoping to see a few more carries for, for Jordan Wilkins. I don't think Naheem Hines had any carries on the ground last week. So we'd like to see the running backs balance out a little bit, but I think that we'll always see the,

the rushing totals be a little bit higher than, than, than the passing attempts. Yeah. Speaking of Jonathan Taylor, unfortunate that Marlon Mack injury in week one, where he tore his Achilles out for the rest of the year, but the Jonathan Taylor era officially starts earlier than expected for this

Colts team. He missed a little bit of yards last week in his first NFL start, but to have a hundred plus yards in your NFL debut as a starter is pretty darn impressive to me. How excited are you to watch Taylor as he gets more and more comfortable behind this offensive line and seeing the holes in the NFL? Yeah, it's, that's going to be something that's really, really fun to watch, especially now that he's, you know, the de facto starter. Like you mentioned,

he did miss, you know, some holes. Another guy that's really popular on on Colt's Twitter, Zach Hicks is, you know, put up a couple clips, showing you know, where he should have cut left and he cut right instead. But you know, he's inexperienced his first start, like you mentioned, I don't think we can, you know, really fault him too much or put too much stock into that. I think he's going to blossom into a really good back, especially with this old line. I mean, those holes are going to be open for him,

you know, game after game. And I think we'll only continue to, to see him improve. Moving on here just quickly to Paris Campbell, who I think is the biggest injury so far for this team. Luckily for the Colts, they drafted Taylor,

he attracted Julian Blackman as we put girls towards Achilles last week. He's out for the year as well. But Campbell, we don't know the exact time table just yet. He's spraying his MCL and PCL. It might be a longer term injury, a couple months along. If the Colts make the playoffs, maybe we see Campbell come back then. But how big of a blow is it to have your speedster once again? Unlucky break for Paris Campbell, his 4-3-1 speed.

He's going to be desperately missing this offense again. Yeah, yeah. This one was a really unfortunate injury. I hated to see this one happen, you know, for a guy who seemed like, you know, he was going to be a real favorite for Phillip Rivers in those crossing and slant routes. It could potentially be, you know, really big for the Colts this season. For a guy that, you know, Phillip with, you know, the dwindling arm strength, I guess you could say, you know, in his, you know, twilight of his career.

Paris Campbell was a guy that was really seemed like he was set to feast. So definitely a big, a big injury. I know they worked out Marcus Johnson, so we might see him come back. And there's some familiarity in the scheme there. So I'm hoping that, you know, he's only out for a few weeks and bounces back. But if not, I think that Reich will be able to scheme it up to where, you know, our remaining receiving core works out just okay.

Yeah, like you mentioned with Marcus Johnson, he did sign to the Colts practice squad a couple of days ago. So we'll see if he's activated sometime soon to the Colts active roster, if they do want to utilize him more often as wide receiver depth for this team. But let's talk about Malik Cox for a second before we dive into the defense.

A monster game for him last week. Of course, he mentioned that one error on his part where he dropped an easy catch and it turned into an interception with Vikings last week. Really the only momentum swing that the Vikings had that entire game. But after that, Malik Cox had five receptions for 111 yards. He best piffed up great for the Titans in 2017 with Rob Gronkowski. Jack Doyle looked like he was going to be playing again this week on Sunday after missing last week's game due to a knee injury.

What are you doing now moving forward? Trey Burton, of course, is out for this week as well. He could be back here soon. After seeing that game, though, Anthony, I really want to see Molly Cox maybe more in that vertical type of system like we saw Eric Ebron in 2018-2019. How do you think the Colts are going to split up those reps between Molly Cox, Doyle, and Burton?

Yeah, this is going to be, you know, really interesting to watch. I think behind, you know, the development and progress of Jonathan Taylor over the season, this might be the next biggest storyline for me. I mean, Molly Cox, he looks like a guy that should be tight end one in this offense, honestly. You know, of course, it's a small sample size, but with his physicality, his size, you know, his mismatch ability and generally, you know, sure hands. He seems like a guy that could be a really, really big factor in this offense. Of course, you know, his blocking prowess is not maybe up there with somebody like Jack Doyle. So I think we'll see Jack Doyle on the field. But more than anything, I think that this means that when Trey Burton returns, you know,

assuming he does, I think he could potentially find himself moving from a tight end two to tight end three in this offense, which is only a testament to the progress that Mike Cox has made. Help support your local businesses, whether they're your corner stores, coffee spots, or favorite shops, local businesses have always been on your team supporting you and your community. But right now, more than ever, local businesses need our support. So let's be there for them.

The next time you go shopping, make the choice to shop at local businesses. And look for the contactless symbol and tap to pay with a contactless visa to help support your community. Because where and how you shop matters. Visa, everywhere you want to be. An official partner of the NFL. This season, get football in your time with NFL Game Pass. You can catch every snap from every game of full game replays and see all the plays in just 45 minutes of condensed games. You'll learn from the league's best players in over 40 film session episodes and get access to the entire NFL Films archive.

Go to nfl.com slash gamepass to get a free trial today. NFL Game Pass, where football never stops. Yeah, a big few weeks for Maladay Cox, and I'm expecting another big game if he does get more of the starting reps over Doyle. He eases back into his injury against this lowly Jets team. Before we dive into that Jets preview, Anthony, and look over the over-unders for this game via DraftKings, let me

get your quick thoughts on this defense, and specifically DeForest Buckner. He had a monster game in Week 2. After a disappointing Week 1 for Buckner, he was great in the run game, but the passing game was kind of surprising in Week 1 where he wasn't able to get much pressure on Gardner Minshew as he went 19-20, but totally different story last Sunday. Four quarterback hits, one and a half sacks. Buckner looked incredible against the Vikings on Sunday. Anthony, what do you think about him

moving forward? Yeah, I think he's going to be a guy that we see continue to make a huge impact in the middle of that defensive line. You know, after week one, you know, we saw a couple good plays from him, but you know, he said, you know, in the postgame interview or in the postgame conference that, you know, he wasn't really, you know, pleased with himself. And he bounced back in a big way, like you mentioned, those one and a half sacks, four quarterback hits. You know, having somebody in the center that can make such an impact like that and allow a guy like Danico Autry to benefit by moving out, I think it's huge for this team. So I expect Buck to continue to run rampant against these offensive lines. How excited are you personally? Because the more I talk about him, I mentioned earlier this week on the podcast,

but he's still about a month away or five weeks away from returning to this Colts defense. But once Kamoka Ture gets back, if he proves to be fully healthy and back to what he was in early 2019, I remember that Chiefs game last year where he just wrecked a patch for Holmes consistently off the edge. I feel like adding Ture to this defensive line, which is already a strength. Justin Houston's already benefiting big time from Buckner being there, like you mentioned Danico Autry as well. If you throw Ture into this mix, Anthony,

I'm excited to see what this team can do. Yeah, if this defensive line, these pass rushers, are moving at full speed, like you mentioned, you have obviously DeForest Buckner. Kamoka Ture was blossoming beautifully last season before his untimely injury. You got Justin Houston, who's still a factor. He had half a sack.

Tyquan Lewis has been playing great. He had a sack. So the more guys you can get into this rotation, the better. And I think that once Ture comes back, we could see this defensive unit potentially be really dangerous. Last one on the defense here before we dive into the Jets game. What do you think this team is? Do you think they're more week one as far as defensive pass coverage goes?

Do you think they're more week two where they were just, thanks to defensive line, a lot of it, where they were wrecking havoc up front and also able to get three turnovers in the interception department on Kirk Cousins? Or do you think it's somewhere in the middle for this Colts defense to be this year in 2020? I lean closer towards week two. but able to get three turnovers in the interception department on Kirk Cousins, or do you think it's somewhere in the middle for this Colts defense could be this year in 2020? I lean towards closer towards week two.

I don't expect, you know, that they're going to be, you know, getting three picks every game. But I think, you know, once we see guys like Julian Blackman,

you know, continue to develop and even potentially getting guys like Jordan Glasgow and mix and Isaiah Rogers getting them, you know, some more opportunities in this defense. I think we'll see the playmaking continue. Probably not as high of a clip, but I think the defense is really going to be what leads this team. I think that they're probably closer to week two,

and all you can hope for is consistency because this team does have a lot of talent, even if they're not household names. Moving on to the J preview now anthony this jets spread 11 and a half points with hell not just a moment as well but the biggest point spread for this coles team i think since the early days of the andrew luckier i don't remember the andrew luckier having this much points i know the dolphins last year was an 11 point favorite but now the jets i even saw a fan duel as well it's 12 and a half points so this jets team looks even worse than that Dolphins team last year. Everyone thought it was going to tank. It might be the worst team in the NFL this year.

What do you think should be the expectations for this Colts team on Sunday against this Jets team, where I think anything less than a 10-plus point win would be pretty inexcusable to me? Yeah, I'm in complete agreement. I tweeted out yesterday or the day before that, you know, if the Colts don't win this game 35 to 0, there's some real problems. And obviously that's a little bit hyperbole.

But, I mean, this Jets team has just looked, you know, completely decimated by injuries, by lack of, you know, skill talent. And so for a team like the Colts, you know, I mentioned consistency. That feels like that's the biggest factor. You know, if they continue to, you know, stay in line with their assignments, you know, communicate, I don't see any way that the Jets, you know, can really put up a ton of fight. I just don't think they have enough talent, you know, to match up with Indy. Yeah, looking at this game, too, this could be kind of another bounce back. And we saw it last year, of course, with 28-11 win over the Vikings.

But if they were to blow out another team in back-to-back weeks, let's say they beat the Jets by 15-20 or more than that, honestly, like you mentioned, this could be more like the Buffalo Bills game we saw in 2018 where I think they won 33-5 or something along those lines. If that type of game happens with the Colts on Sunday, heading into the softer part of their schedule against the Bears, the Browns, the Bengals and Lions where they have their bye week, and then play the Baltimore Ravens, this could be a game where they can really up up their confidence a little bit more, Anthony,

and literally go on a run here. Yeah, I think that, you know, as long as, you know, they take care of business this week, this weekend, that sets them up for a lot of success going up through the bye week and through the Detroit Lions game. I think that they very realistically could be six and one through those eight weeks and including the bye. But it feels like, you know, this Colts team, we've seen them over the past few years, they fall victim to some of these trap games, you know, so hopefully they got the jitters out and they got the miscommunications and everything out of the way with with the Jacksonville Jaguars. But this seems like a game they should run through and really be able to build up some momentum for going into the middle part of the season.

If you were in Frank Reich's shoes, Anthony, what would you say the big three keys are to the Colts game on Sunday against the Jets? I'm going to say more balance with the rushing attack. Like I said, I want to see Naheem Hines in there even if it's just third down. Get him the ball. He's a really good playmaker. Number two, I would say don't overlook the Jets just in general. You know, I've seen so many tweets about the Jets are missing, you know, their center and their tackle and three ride receivers and this and that, but it's going to be really important, I think, for them to just continue to communicate. Think about,

you know, the task at hand, not look forward to these, look ahead to these other teams and other weeks. And then number three, I would say make plays. I mean, we've seen that Sam Darnold has been a little bit turnover prone in his career and even dating back to college. Of course, you know, the loss of a playmaker like Malik Hooker hurts a little bit, but I think that we'll see somebody like Julian Blackman, you know, the loss of a playmaker like Malik Hooker hurts a little bit, but I think that we'll see somebody like Julian Blackman, you know, continue to make plays. He had some really nice tackles.

So as long as they can, you know, kind of get in the face of Sam Darnold, maybe force a couple turnovers, I think they're going to be able to run away with this game. Totally agree with you there. I think we're both in agreement about how this game should go on Sunday. So let's dive in now to our over-unders via DraftKings here. Of course, sports gambling is legal in Indiana, so if you're a listener in that area, go ahead and you can follow along with us, maybe even tag along with us on these bets as well. Going through the player props here, Anthony, we'll close out, of course, to spread the over-under. Phillip Rivers, they have on DraftKings over-under for

234.5 passing yards. Last week, Rivers had 214 passing yards against the Vikings in a heavy run scheme where Jonathan Taylor, of course, had 25 carries. Jordan Wilkins had around 10 carries too. Week one, of course, Rivers had 363 yards and 46 pass attempts. Do you expect over under 234.5 yards? I'm going to go over just slightly. I think I don't have a ton of confidence in that Jets secondary. We've seen T.Y. has been in a little bit of a slump. I think he could have a potentially a

big game. So I don't expect, you know, a huge output from Phillip, but I think somewhere around 250, 275 yards sounds about right. I'm going to go slightly under here just because I think this could be a game like we saw in 2018, like the Bills game, where they established the run early. And Andrew Luck, what you saw in 2018, I think attempted around 17 or 18 passes that whole game. Maybe it was a little bit more than that. But I could see Phillip Bruce here having maybe 20 passes or less. Jonathan Taylor gets going.

Jordan Wilkins, I want to see more touch for him as well. If those two are able to really get going and really establish the run and the offensive line really just demolishes the Jets from four, I could see this game being like 35 to 40 rushing attempts for this Coles team. Bleed out the clock. Don't let the Jets offense have it at all and just really boil them the whole game. So I'm going to go slightly under here. I'll go for like 225 passing yards for Phillip Rivers.

But easily, like you mentioned, I could see since T.Y. Hilton's had a rough couple weeks here, I could see him having a huge bounce back game and getting Rivers total above the 234.5 mark. But looking over to touchdown pass for Phillip Rivers here as well, Anthony, interesting number here, over under one and a half passing touchdowns for Phillip Rivers on Sunday. I think I'll probably settle at over. I think he'll probably still be able to get two touchdowns. I expect a big offensive output.

So I think we'll see a couple touchdowns on the ground, at least a couple touchdowns through the air as well. I'll go two. Yeah, I'm there with you. I think either whether it be a touchdowns on the ground, at least a couple touchdowns through the air as well. I'll go too. Yeah, I'm there with you. I think either whether it be a Molly Cox, Reds, a touchdown, I think we're going to see T.Y. targeted a lot in this game, which we'll hit on in just a moment here, whether it's over or under. I think we see Rivers going to have a lower touchdown yardage –

a higher touchdown total with a lower yardage total, which could make a lot of sense if they're going to go with another heavy ground attack for this team on setting. It's the New York Jets, which I think should be a blowout victory like me and Anthony have both mentioned already today. Jonathan Taylor, we saw last week in his first start, Anthony, 101 rushing yards and 25 attempts. He also had in three receptions. What do you think about this upcoming Sunday where Jonathan Taylor is supposed to have 77.5 rushing yards per draft game? So you say over or under on that total? Oh, I'll smash the over on that.

I'm almost honestly ready to just book Jonathan Taylor for around 90 to 100 yards every week. I agree. Yeah, I think this could be a huge game for Taylor. I think we're going to see maybe another 100-plus rushing yard game for him. And it wouldn't be shocking at all to see Jonathan Taylor maybe have a little bit more than that. Maybe even beat his career high that we saw last week in Week 2 for 101 yards.

Maybe 125 or so could be in store for Taylor if they really want to establish that run early on in this game for the Indianapolis Colts against the New York Jets. Moving on here to the receivers as well, the Uber owners for the receiving yards totals. T.Y. Hilton, he is the number one option for this team, of course. And looking at the over-under here on DraftKings, 57.5 yards for T.Y. H, and I'm going to smash the over there.

Yeah, I'll take the over as well. I think we could see T.Y. have a big breakout. I think he only has 80 yards through two weeks. I think he could top that in this game easy. Yeah, I think this is a big bounce back game for T.Y. He reportedly talked to his grandma earlier this week who gave him a motivational talk. So if you talk to grandma more often than not, you're probably gonna have a huge game and a huge bounce back win. So I think T.Y.'s got a monster game against his lowly Jets secondary. So let's move on here to number two option here in the receiving yards total. Michael Pittman Jr., the Colts rookie, and that steps into the

bigger role with Paris Kimmel now for a couple weeks. His over-under is 42.5. He had an again around 40 last week, Anthony. What do you think about that one? That's pretty close to that. I'm going to take the under actually on that one a little bit. I think we've seen some good signs from Pittman so far, but I think he needs to work on his route tree a little bit. I haven't seen a ton of really dynamic separation,

so I think he'll be targeted a good amount, but it's not a ton of downfield stuff yet. So I think we'll see him come in right around 40 yards again. Yeah, I agree with you. I think it's going to be slightly under. I'm going to go around 40 on that as well. Pittman, of course, is utilized a lot in a rushing game too, as a blocker.

The Colts love him as a blocker, as they do with Zach Paschal. So I think Pittman will see the field a lot, maybe not a lot of targets in this game as they try to establish the run. But I'll go slightly under here with 40 yards. And I think it's a huge T-wide game coming for this Colts team on Sunday. But looking here, we're back onto the overall. We went through all the player ones there, passing for Rivers, the rushing for Taylor, the receiving for Pittman and Hilton as well.

Let's go to the overall game line, Anthony, per DraftKings. 11.5-point favorites for the Colts on Sunday against the New York Jets. The over-under is 44. What do you think is going to happen there? Do you think it's going to be over or under? I mean, it is a big spread. I'm going to take the over for the spread. I think the Colts should be able to lay at least two touchdowns on the Jets.

You can call them the lowly Jets, and it's so accurate. So they should be able to win this game pretty handily. You said that the total game was 44? 44. 44. I'm going to go under, actually. I don't know if the Coltsts are gonna put up more than 35 points um and i really don't know if the jets are gonna put up more than a touchdown so i'm

gonna say under just slightly i'm gonna go the colts cover the square like you mentioned anthony i'm gonna go 31 17 that's been the prediction i've had all week on the show i think it's gonna go over with that total as well it's well well over in the 50-point category for the over-under. I just think this game really could be a game where we see Phillip Rivers maybe benched in the fourth quarter and Jacare Brissett take some snaps, obviously. I could really see a 31-3

type of game. Then we see later on the third stringers play in the fourth quarter and then maybe the Jets and Sam Darnold get two late touchdowns in this game. I think it's going to be a huge blowout win for this Colts team. And I think I'm going to go 31-17 on this as well. But what do you think, Anthony? I mean, this game should be a no-excuse game for this Colts team.

And if they do struggle, if it's a close game on Sunday, or even if they lose this game, I hope it's not time to do some warning bells on the Colts here. But there's no excuse at this point if they don't win this game by a lot, honestly. Yeah, yeah. I'm kind of right with you there. I would hate to pull the fire alarm if the Colts lose on Sunday, but there's just no reason. With all the injuries they

have and how poor they've looked and how really solid the Colts looked last week against a talented Minnesota team, there's no reason they shouldn't run through this Jets team that has a head coach that shouldn't really make it through the season even. Yeah, I think Adam Gase honestly could be on the hot seat this coming week if they lose by 30-40 points. I would not be shocked at all. Joe Douglas wants to clean house there. If they get Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold could be the next Josh Rosen. So that's going to be an interesting situation to watch with this Jets team. It's really in complete dysfunction right now.

But you guys can go follow Anthony on Twitter, if you're not already, at Ant underscore the Oreo. You can go read his work, as always, over at Coast to Coast Scouting, at CC Scouting on Twitter. Appreciate the time, man. Yeah, absolutely. Appreciate it.